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DOE OSTI2020

Nowcasting Earthquakes in Southern California With Machine Learning: Bursts, Swarms, and Aftershocks May Be Related to Levels of Regional Tectonic Stress

Abstract Seismic bursts in Southern California are sequences of small earthquakes strongly clustered in space and time and include seismic swarms and aftershock sequences. A readily observable property of these events, the radius of gyration ( R G ), allows us to connect the bursts to the temporal occurrence of the largest M ≥ 7 earthquakes in California since 1984. In the Southern California earthquake catalog, we identify hundreds of these potentially coherent space‐time structures in a region defined by a circle of radius 600 km around Los Angeles. We compute R G for each cluster then filter them to identify those bursts with large numbers of events closely clustered in space, which we call “compact” bursts. Our basic assumption is that these compact bursts reflect the dynamics associated with large earthquakes. Once we have filtered the burst catalog, we apply an exponential moving average to construct a time series for the Southern California region. We observe that the R G of these bursts systematically decreases prior to large earthquakes, in a process that we might term “radial localization.” The R G then rapidly increases during an aftershock sequence, and a new cycle of “radial localization” then begins. These time series display cycles of recharge and discharge reminiscent of seismic stress accumulation and release in the elastic rebound process. The complex burst dynamics we observe are evidently a property of the region as a whole, rather than being associated with individual faults. This new method allows us to improve earthquake nowcasting, which is a technique to evaluate the current state of hazard in a seismically active region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Statistical moments of VIIRS night-time lights

Annual VIIRS global night-time lights traditionally report mean radiance levels after filtering to remove moonlit and cloudy data followed by outlier removal. The mean is the first statistical moment, but there are three other statistical moments (variance, skew and kurtosis) that are currently not produced globally. In this study, we generated VIIRS day/night band multiyear and annual statistical moments for a widely dispersed set of test areas. The moments were calculated from 15 arc second nightly temporal profiles spanning 2012-2020, filtered to exclude cloudy and sunlit data, with radiance adjustments to reduce view angle and lunar illuminance effects. The moment data were examined in two ways: (1) Geospatial grids-which reveal zonation and temporal changes present in urban areas and (2) Scattergrams of moment pairs. The variance versus mean scattergram exhibits several distinct data clusters used to define five zones: core lighting, dark-erratics, mid-erratics, bright-erratics and bright and seteady. The results indicate that the information content of VIIRS night-time lights can be augmented if all four statistical moments are calculated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

JIRIAF: JLAB Integrated Research Infrastructure Acros Facilities

The JIRIAF project aims to combine geographically diverse computing facilities into an integrated science infrastructure. This project starts by dynamically evaluating temporarily unallocated or idled compute resources from multiple providers. These resources are integrated to handle additional workloads without affecting local running jobs. This paper describes our approach to launch best-effort batch tasks which exploit these underutilized resources. Our system measures the real-time behavior of jobs running on a machine and learns to distinguish typical performance from outliers. Unsupervised ML techniques are used to analyze hardware-level performance measures, followed by a real-time cross-correlation analysis to determine which applications cause performance degradation. We then ameliorate bad behavior by throttling these processes. We demonstrate that problematic performance interference can be detected and acted on, which makes it possible to continue to share resources between applications and simultaneously maintain high utilization levels in a computing cluster. We relocate the CLAS12 data processing workflow to a remote data center for a case study, preventing file migration and temporal data persistency.

Lawrence, David↗

DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Superconducting Magnet Quench Antenna Data

Quenching poses a serious problem for superconducting magnets operating at high currents. It occurs when the material transitions from the superconducting to the normal state, which leads to heating and potential damage to the magnet. To understand and mitigate quenching, the Magnet Department at Fermilab is developing and testing superconducting magnet quench antenna arrays. This study delves into the anomalous events preceding the quench during magnet training by analyzing the collected data. With the moving average and Fast Fourier Transform techniques, we investigate the trends and frequency patterns of the data. Moreover, we introduce an unsupervised anomaly detection algorithm based on Principal Component Analysis and DBSCAN clustering. It can autonomously identify events within background noise, without relying on any predefined event features. Our analysis reveals that the spatio-temporal distribution of these anomalous events has little connection to the quench location, indicating that a majority of them bear no relation to the quenching process.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust historical evapotranspiration trends across climate regimes

Evapotranspiration (ET) links the hydrological, energy and carbon cycles on the land surface. Quantifying ET and its spatio-temporal changes is also key to understanding climate extremes such as droughts, heatwaves and flooding. Regional ET estimates require reliable observation-based gridded ET datasets, and while many have been developed using physically based, empirically based and hybrid techniques, their efficacy, and particularly the efficacy of their uncertainty estimates, is difficult to verify. In this work, we extend the methodology used in Hobeichi et al. (2018) to derive two new versions of the Derived Optimal Linear Combination Evapotranspiration (DOLCE) product, with observationally constrained spatio-temporally varying uncertainty estimates, higher spatial resolution, more constituent products and extended temporal coverage (1980–2018). After demonstrating the efficacy of these uncertainty estimates with out-of-sample testing, we derive novel ET climatology clusters for the land surface, based on the magnitude and variability of ET at each location on land. The new clusters include three wet and three dry regimes and provide an approximation of Köppen–Geiger climate classes. The verified uncertainty estimates and extended time period then allow us to examine the robustness of historical trends spatially and in each of these six ET climatology clusters. We find that despite robust decreasing ET trends in some regions these do not correlate with behavioural ET clusters. Each cluster, and the majority of the Earth's surface, shows clear robust increases in ET over the recent historical period. The new datasets DOLCE V2.1 and DOLCE V3 can be used for benchmarking global ET estimates and for examining ET trends respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Precision Loading and Delivery of Molecular Cargo by Size-Controlled Coacervation of Gold Nanoparticles Functionalized with Elastin-like Peptides

Thermoresponsive elastin-like peptides (ELPs) have been extensively investigated in biotechnology and medicine, but little attention has been paid to the process by which coacervation causes ELP-decorated particles to aggregate. Here, using gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) functionalized with a cysteine-terminated 96-repeat of the VPGVG sequence (V96-Cys), we show that the size of the clusters that reversibly form above the ELP transition temperature can be finely controlled in the 250 to 930 nm range by specifying the concentration of free V96-Cys in solution and using AuNPs of different sizes. We further find that the localized surface plasmon resonance peak of the embedded AuNPs progressively red-shifts with cluster size, likely due to an increase in particle–particle contacts. We exploit this fine control over size to homogeneously load precise amounts of the dye Nile Red and the antibiotic Tetracycline into clusters of different hydrodynamic diameters and deliver cargos near-quantitatively by deconstructing the aggregates below the ELP transition temperature. Beyond establishing a key role for free ELPs in the agglomeration of ELP-functionalized particles, our results provide a path for the thermally controlled delivery of precise quantities of molecular cargo. This capability might prove useful in combination photothermal therapies and theranostic applications, and to trigger spatially and temporally uniform responses from biological, electronic, or optical systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chemical identification of new particle formation and growth precursors through positive matrix factorization of ambient ion measurements

Abstract. In the lower troposphere, rapid collisions between ions and trace gases result in the transfer of positive charge to the highest proton affinity species and negative charge to the lowest proton affinity species. Measurements of the chemical composition of ambient ions thus provide direct insight into the most acidic and basic trace gases and their ion–molecule clusters – compounds thought to be important for new particle formation and growth. We deployed an atmospheric pressure interface time-of-flight mass spectrometer (APi-ToF) to measure ambient ion chemical composition during the 2016 Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign at the United States Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility in the Southern Great Plains (SGP), an agricultural region. Cations and anions were measured for alternating periods of ∼ 24 h over 1 month. We use binned positive matrix factorization (binPMF) and generalized Kendrick analysis (GKA) to obtain information about the chemical formulas and temporal variation in ionic composition without the need for averaging over a long timescale or a priori high-resolution peak fitting. Negative ions consist of strong acids including sulfuric and nitric acid, organosulfates, and clusters of NO3- with highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) derived from monoterpene (MT) and sesquiterpene (SQT) oxidation. Organonitrates derived from SQTs account for most of the HOM signal. Combined with the diel profiles and back trajectory analysis, these results suggest that NO3 radical chemistry is active at this site. SQT oxidation products likely contribute to particle growth at the SGP site. The positive ions consist of bases including alkyl pyridines and amines and a series of high-mass species. Nearly all the positive ions contained only one nitrogen atom and in general support ammonia and amines as being the dominant bases that could participate in new particle formation. Overall, this work demonstrates how APi-ToF measurements combined with binPMF analysis can provide insight into the temporal evolution of compounds important for new particle formation and growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised Clustering of Microseismic Events and Focal Mechanism Analysis at the CO 2 Injection Site in Decatur, Illinois

Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO 2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO 2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.

Willis, Rachel Marie [Sandia National Laboratories↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fracture Network Prediction Using Physics-based Machine Learning Algorithms

In recent years, systematic CO2 injection into geological reservoirs across the U.S. has gained traction as a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This approach necessitates precise monitoring to ensure secure containment, minimize risks, and optimize storage management. Our study leverages machine learning (ML) techniques to advance the understanding of CO2 injection processes, focusing on the Illinois Basin. Over a three-year injection period, we analyzed microseismic data, identifying 19 temporal intervals with significant bottom-hole pressure changes. By partitioning microseismic events into these intervals and estimating b-values, we revealed over 100 clusters of events related to fracture initiation or reactivation. Advanced spatial analysis highlighted horizontally-oriented fractures along the NNW-SSE axis. This quantification of fracture networks informs dynamic injection scheduling, work-over strategies, and risk assessments, enhancing carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) operations. Additionally, our methodology offers valuable insights for oil and gas operations and geothermal development, supporting fracture-based monitoring and risk mitigation.

Kumar, Abhash↗

DOE OSTI2024

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Non-Elastic Strain Accumulation in Stanstead Granite During Brittle Creep

Understanding the long-term behavior of brittle rocks requires fundamental consideration of time-dependent strain evolution and brittle creep processes. Previous studies have evaluated sub-critical crack growth during time-dependent deformation and damage evolution in brittle rocks; however, there is an incomplete knowledge of how damage evolves spatially and temporally within the body of intact rocks, where distributed regions of damage interact and coalesce during creep. This paper presents laboratory research focusing on evaluating brittle creep damage processes in Stanstead granite (SG) using 2-dimensional digital image correlation (2D-DIC). In the laboratory, the prismatic SG specimens were loaded beyond an estimated Crack Damage stress threshold (CD) level and then maintained a constant stress to initiate the creep process. DIC was used to characterize full-field spatiotemporal strain evolution, which was then interpreted in the context of local regions of “damage”, determined according to a strain-based criterion. Here, a method was proposed for identifying “existing” and “new” damage regions over specified intervals during the test, followed by spatial clustering of these regions to assess their spatiotemporal evolution. The clustering analysis results demonstrated the extension of existing damage regions was the main damage process during brittle creep, which is consistent with existing models of sub-critical crack growth. In addition, temporal analysis of tensile and shear strains on a point-by-point basis revealed both new damage formation and the strain concentration within existing damaged regions significantly contribute to overall specimen strain during primary creep. In contrast, during secondary creep, increases in specimen deformation are influenced by the accumulation of strains within already damaged regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Neural Network for Principle of Least Action

The principle of least action is the cornerstone of classical mechanics, theory of relativity, quantum mechanics, and thermodynamics. Here, we describe how a neural network (NN) learns to find the trajectory for a Lennard-Jones (LJ) system that maintains balance in minimizing the Onsager–Machlup (OM) action and maintaining the energy conservation. The phase-space trajectory thus calculated is in excellent agreement with the corresponding results from the “ground-truth” molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Furthermore, we show that the NN can easily find structural transformation pathways for LJ clusters, for example, the basin-hopping transformation of an LJ 38 from an incomplete Mackay icosahedron to a truncated face-centered cubic octahedron. Unlike MD, the NN computes atomic trajectories over the entire temporal domain in one fell swoop, and the NN time step is a factor of 20 larger than the MD time step. The NN approach to OM action is quite general and can be adapted to model morphometrics in a variety of applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Attribute-Aware RBFs: Interactive Visualization of Time Series Particle Volumes Using RT Core Range Queries

Smoothed-particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is a mesh-free method used to simulate volumetric media in fluids, astrophysics, and solid mechanics. Visualizing these simulations is problematic because these datasets often contain millions, if not billions of particles carrying physical attributes and moving over time. Radial basis functions (RBFs) are used to model particles, and overlapping particles are interpolated to reconstruct a high-quality volumetric field; however, this interpolation process is expensive and makes interactive visualization difficult. Existing RBF interpolation schemes do not account for color-mapped attributes and are instead constrained to visualizing just the density field. To address these challenges, we exploit ray tracing cores in modern GPU architectures to accelerate scalar field reconstruction. We use a novel RBF interpolation scheme to integrate per-particle colors and densities, and leverage GPU-parallel tree construction and refitting to quickly update the tree as the simulation animates over time or when the user manipulates particle radii. We also propose a Hilbert reordering scheme to cluster particles together at the leaves of the tree to reduce tree memory consumption. Finally, we reduce the noise of volumetric shadows by adopting a spatially temporal blue noise sampling scheme. Our method can provide a more detailed and interactive view of these large, volumetric, time-series particle datasets than traditional methods, leading to new insights into these physics simulations.

Particle Volumes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards a multiscale approach for understanding irradiation induced swelling and creep in 316 stainless steels - A coupled cluster dynamics and crystal plasticity approach

Structural materials undergo mechanical degradation, in part due to irradiation-induced swelling and creep, under nuclear reactor conditions. While swelling results from the migration and clustering of irradiation-induced atomic-scale mobile defects, the interaction of mesoscale dislocations with these defects causes creep deformation. A coupled crystal plasticity (CP) and mean-field cluster dynamics (CD) approach is presented to investigate the effect of irradiation on the long-term mechanical behavior of 316 stainless steel, which are under consideration for use in nuclear reactors. The temporal evolution of Frenkel pairs and extended defect population, under a chosen irradiation flux and temperature, is predicted using the CD model. The impact of the irradiation defects on the stress state, and the resulting dislocation-mediated inelastic deformation, is modeled concurrently with the CP model. The inelastic deformation is irradiation flux dependent, and early-stage defect evolution determines the later-stage mechanical behavior in 316 stainless steel.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of Precipitation-Induced Radon Progeny Deposition Events Using a City-Scale Sensor Network

Networks of radiation detectors provide a platform for real-time radioactive source detection and identification in urban environments. Detection algorithms in these systems must adapt to naturally-occurring changes in background, which requires well-characterized relationships between precipitation events and their corresponding radiological signature. Here, we present a quantitative and qualitative description of rain-induced radon progeny deposition events occurring in Chicago from September 2023 to February 2024. We measure ambient gamma radiation levels, precipitation rate, temperature, pressure, and relative humidity in a network of sensor nodes. For each identified precipitation period, we decompose spectra into static- and radon-associated components as defined by a non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithm. We find a consistent power-law relationship between a precipitation-dependent peak of the radon progeny proxy (RPP) and the peak strength of the radon-associated NMF component for most precipitation events. We conduct a case study of a rainfall period with abnormally high levels of implied radon progeny concentration and describe its temporal and spatial evolution. We hypothesize that this phenomenon is due to the air mass path that intersects a uranium-rich region of Wyoming. Finally, we cluster precipitation events into three distinct categories. One category roughly corresponds to events with deep low-pressure systems and high relative radon concentration, while another is characteristic of light stratiform rain with slightly higher temperatures and intermediate relative radon concentration. The third category appears to contain weak-gradient or lake breeze convection showers with intermittent precipitation and low relative radon concentration. These findings suggest that radiological anomaly detection could be improved by training unique background models corresponding to each category of meteorological event.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds

In 2018 and 2019, heatwaves set all-time temperature records around the world and caused adverse effects on human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and infrastructure. Often, severe impacts relate to the joint spatial and temporal extent of the heatwaves, but most research so far focuses either on spatial or temporal attributes of heatwaves. Furthermore, sensitivity of heatwaves characteristics to the choice of the heatwave thresholds in a warming climate are rarely discussed. Here, we analyze the largest spatiotemporal moderate heatwaves—that is, three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days—in simulations of global climate models. We use three different hazard thresholds to define a hot day: fixed thresholds (time-invariant climatological thresholds), seasonally moving thresholds based on changes in the summer means, and fully moving thresholds (hot days defined relative to the future climatology). We find a substantial increase of spatiotemporally contiguous moderate heatwaves with global warming using fixed thresholds, whereas changes for the other two hazard thresholds are much less pronounced. In particular, no or very little changes in the overall magnitude, spatial extent, and duration are detected when heatwaves are defined relative to the future climatology using a temporally fully moving threshold. This suggests a dominant contribution of thermodynamic compared to dynamic effects in global climate model simulations. The similarity between seasonally moving and fully moving thresholds indicates that seasonal mean warming alone can explain large parts of the warming of extremes. The strong sensitivity of simulated future heatwaves to hazard thresholds should be considered in the projections of potential future heat-related impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Crash Risks Evaluation of Urban Expressways: A Case Study in Shanghai

We report that proactive traffic safety management systems can reduce crashes by identifying crash precursors, evaluating real-time crash risks, and implementing suitable interventions. The basic prerequisite for developing such a system is to propose a reliable crash risk evaluation model that takes real-time traffic flow data as input. Previous studies have primarily focused on real-time crash prediction using some statistical or machine-learning methods. However, further quantitative evaluation and classification of crash risks have been ignored. In this study, we conduct a systematic crash risk evaluation workflow, including crash risk prediction, crash risk quantification, and crash risk classification. Specifically, the crash risk prediction using an extended logit model is proposed, from which CAS, CSD, UAS, DAS, DTV are identified to be contributing factors of crash risks. Then a crash risk quantification model based on the parameter evaluation of the extended logit model is developed. The crash risks of urban expressways and their spatial-temporal evolution trends are quantified. Finally, the crash risks are classified into high crash risk level, moderate crash risk level, and low crash risk level by the k-means cluster algorithm. Then the threshold boundaries of different crash risk levels are determined. The research results provide a proactive guidance for traffic safety management of urban expressways.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Climatological Representative Days in the Mid-Atlantic for High-Fidelity Offshore Wind Energy Modeling

The goal of reaching 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 becomes more realistic with the continued approval of offshore wind energy areas by the Biden Administration. In the Mid-Atlantic, where wind energy projects are in the most advanced stages of development, there is increased research focus on the eventual interaction of these wind farms. These interactions, in the form of wakes and cluster wakes, or wakes from multiple wind farms, could have detrimental effects on power production and forecastability for downwind wind farms (Pryor et al. 2022, Golbazi et al. 2022, Rosencrans et al. 2023). To help alleviate these issues, numerical simulations in the form of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and large eddy simulations (LES) can provide insight into when cluster wake situations may occur, but running such simulations can be expensive and difficult to run for multiple years. In this study, we leverage and build upon existing techniques in the literature (Fischereit et al. 2022) to identify climatologically representative days for wind energy areas in the Mid-Atlantic where conditions would promote cluster wake situations. We select meteorological variables (wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability, boundary-layer height, TKE) critical to understanding wind energy production and wake propagation. We then consider two different NWP datasets of varying spatial and temporal resolution: ERA5 provides data at hourly intervals from 1940 to present at 0.25 deg (31 km) spatial resolution (Hersbach et al. 2020), and the NOW-23 dataset provides data at 5-minute resolution for 21 years at 2-km spatial resolution (Bodini et al. 2020). Our first step is to compare these two datasets for an overlapping 21-year time period. Initial results show that the required number of days to represent the long-term climate increases with each additional variable considered. In their study of the German Bight, Fischereit et al. (2022) found that they could represent the long-term wind and wave climate in a "near-perfect" way with -180 days, by reaching a Perkins Skill Score (PSS) of 0.9; our investigation of the mid-Atlantic wind resource region with ERA5 and NOW-23 data suggests that we will need -100 days to reach a PSS of 0.9. As we expand our parameter space to include multiple variables, the number of required days will likely grow. These results will ultimately be used to select case studies to best represent cluster wake conditions that apply to this region for the lifetime of likely wind farms in this mid-Atlantic region.

clusterwakes↗