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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in inundation drive carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in a temperate wetland

Wetlands cycle carbon by being net sinks for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and net sources of methane (CH 4 ). Daily and seasonal temporal patterns, dissolved oxygen (DO) availability, inundation status (flooded or dry/partially flooded), water depth, and vegetation can affect the magnitude of carbon uptake or emissions, but the extent and interactive effects of these variables on carbon gas fluxes are poorly understood. We characterized the linkages between carbon fluxes and these environmental and temporal drivers at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC), OH. We measured diurnal gas flux patterns in an upstream side channel (called the cove) using chamber measurements at six sites (three vegetated and three non-vegetated). We sampled hourly from 7 AM to 7 PM and monthly from July to October 2022. DO concentrations and water levels were measured monthly. Water inundation status had the most influential effect on carbon fluxes with flooded conditions supporting higher CH 4 fluxes (0.39 μmol CH 4 m –2 s –1 ; –1.23 μmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ) and drier conditions supporting higher CO 2 fluxes (0.03 μmol CH 4 m –2 s –1 ; 0.86 μmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ). When flooded, the wetland was a net CO 2 sink; however, it became a source for both CH 4 and CO 2 when water levels were low. We compared chamber-based gas fluxes from the cove in flooded (July) and dry (August) months to fluxes measured with an eddy covariance tower whose footprint covers flooded portions of the wetland. The diurnal pattern of carbon fluxes at the tower did not vary with changing water levels but remained a CO 2 sink and a CH 4 source even when the cove where we performed the chamber measurements dried out. Furthermore, these results emphasize the role of inundation status on wetland carbon cycling and highlight the importance of fluctuating hydrologic patterns, especially hydrologic drawdowns, under changing climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application of Spectral Analysis Techniques in the Intercomparison of Aerosol Data. Part II: Using Maximum Covariance Analysis to Effectively Compare Spatiotemporal Variability of Satellite and AERONET Measured Aerosol Optical Depth

Moderate Resolution Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiomater (MISR) provide regular aerosol observations with global coverage. It is essential to examine the coherency between space- and ground-measured aerosol parameters in representing aerosol spatial and temporal variability, especially in the climate forcing and model validation context. In this paper, we introduce Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA), also known as Singular Value Decomposition analysis as an effective way to compare correlated aerosol spatial and temporal patterns between satellite measurements and AERONET data. This technique not only successfully extracts the variability of major aerosol regimes but also allows the simultaneous examination of the aerosol variability both spatially and temporally. More importantly, it well accommodates the sparsely distributed AERONET data, for which other spectral decomposition methods, such as Principal Component Analysis, do not yield satisfactory results. The comparison shows overall good agreement between MODIS/MISR and AERONET AOD variability. The correlations between the first three modes of MCA results for both MODIS/AERONET and MISR/ AERONET are above 0.8 for the full data set and above 0.75 for the AOD anomaly data. The correlations between MODIS and MISR modes are also quite high (greater than 0.9). We also examine the extent of spatial agreement between satellite and AERONET AOD data at the selected stations. Some sites with disagreements in the MCA results, such as Kanpur, also have low spatial coherency. This should be associated partly with high AOD spatial variability and partly with uncertainties in satellite retrievals due to the seasonally varying aerosol types and surface properties.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2016

Consistency Between Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence and Gross Primary Production of Vegetation in North America

Accurate estimation of the gross primary production (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is vital for a better understanding of the spatial-temporal patterns of the global carbon cycle. In this study,we estimate GPP in North America (NA) using the satellite-based Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) images at 8-day temporal and 500 meter spatial resolutions, and NCEP-NARR (National Center for Environmental Prediction-North America Regional Reanalysis) climate data. The simulated GPP (GPP (sub VPM)) agrees well with the flux tower derived GPP (GPPEC) at 39 AmeriFlux sites (155 site-years). The GPP (sub VPM) in 2010 is spatially aggregated to 0.5 by 0.5-degree grid cells and then compared with sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data from Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2), which is directly related to vegetation photosynthesis. Spatial distribution and seasonal dynamics of GPP (sub VPM) and GOME-2 SIF show good consistency. At the biome scale, GPP (sub VPM) and SIF shows strong linear relationships (R (sup 2) is greater than 0.95) and small variations in regression slopes ((4.60-5.55 grams Carbon per square meter per day) divided by (milliwatts per square meter per nanometer per square radian)). The total annual GPP (sub VPM) in NA in 2010 is approximately 13.53 petagrams Carbon per year, which accounts for approximately 11.0 percent of the global terrestrial GPP and is within the range of annual GPP estimates from six other process-based and data-driven models (11.35-22.23 petagrams Carbon per year). Among the seven models, some models did not capture the spatial pattern of GOME-2 SIF data at annual scale, especially in Midwest cropland region. The results from this study demonstrate the reliable performance of VPM at the continental scale, and the potential of SIF data being used as a benchmark to compare with GPP models.

photosynthesis model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dryness controls temperature-optimized gross primary productivity across vegetation types

Temperature response of gross primary productivity (GPP) is a well-known property of ecosystem, but GPP at the optimum temperature (GPP_T opt ) has not been fully discussed. Our understanding of how GPP_T opt responds to warming and water availability is highly limited. Here, in this study, we analyzed data at 326 globally distributed eddy covariance sites (79°N-37°S), to identify controlling factors of GPP_T opt . Although GPP_T opt was significantly influenced by soil moisture, global solar radiation, mean annual temperature, and vapor pressure deficit in a non-linear pattern (R 2 = 0.47), the direction and magnitude of these climate variables’ effects on GPP_T opt depend on the dryness index (DI), a ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation. The spatial pattern showed that soil moisture did not affect GPP_T opt across energy-limited sites with DI < 1 while dominated GPP_T opt across water-limited sites with DI >1. The temporal pattern showed that GPP_T opt was lowered by warming or low precipitation in water-limited sites while energy-limited sites tended to maintain a stable GPP_T opt regardless of changes in air temperature. Vegetation types in humid climates tended to have higher GPP_T opt and were more likely to benefit from a warmer climate since it was not restricted by water conditions. This study highlights that the response of GPP_T opt to global warming depends on the dryness conditions, which explains the nonlinear control of water and temperature over GPP_T opt . Our finding is essential to realistic prediction of terrestrial carbon uptake under future climate and vegetation conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Behavioral patterns of bats at a wind turbine confirm seasonality of fatality risk

Abstract Bat fatalities at wind energy facilities in North America are predominantly comprised of migratory, tree‐dependent species, but it is unclear why these bats are at higher risk. Factors influencing bat susceptibility to wind turbines might be revealed by temporal patterns in their behaviors around these dynamic landscape structures. In northern temperate zones, fatalities occur mostly from July through October, but whether this reflects seasonally variable behaviors, passage of migrants, or some combination of factors remains unknown. In this study, we examined video imagery spanning one year in the state of Colorado in the United States, to characterize patterns of seasonal and nightly variability in bat behavior at a wind turbine. We detected bats on 177 of 306 nights representing approximately 3,800 hr of video and > 2,000 discrete bat events. We observed bats approaching the turbine throughout the night across all months during which bats were observed. Two distinct seasonal peaks of bat activity occurred in July and September, representing 30% and 42% increases in discrete bat events from the preceding months June and August, respectively. Bats exhibited behaviors around the turbine that increased in both diversity and duration in July and September. The peaks in bat events were reflected in chasing and turbine approach behaviors. Many of the bat events involved multiple approaches to the turbine, including when bats were displaced through the air by moving blades. The seasonal and nightly patterns we observed were consistent with the possibility that wind turbines invoke investigative behaviors in bats in late summer and autumn coincident with migration and that bats may return and fly close to wind turbines even after experiencing potentially disruptive stimuli like moving blades. Our results point to the need for a deeper understanding of the seasonality, drivers, and characteristics of bat movement across spatial scales.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Viscosity estimates for the crust and upper mantle from patterns of lacustrine shoreline deformation in the Eastern Great Basin

The deformed shorelines of Lake Bonneville constitute a classic source of information on lithospheric elastic thickness and upper mantle viscosity. We describe and apply a new model to a recently augmented data set. New data better constrain both the complex spatio-temporal pattern of the lake load and the crustal deformation response to that load. The history of lake level fluctuations has been significantly refined and somewhat modified. This is due to both more radiocarbon dates from within the Bonneville basin and to an improved calibration of the radiocarbon timescale itself. The data which constrain the crustal deformation pattern consist of ages and shoreline elevations from several hundred points which sample three major levels of Lake Bonneville and corresponding elevations from the high stands of three smaller lakes situated to the west of Lake Bonneville. The geometry of the Earth model incorporates an arbitrary number of layers overlying a half-space, and the rheology of each level can accommodate an arbitrary number of Maxwell viscoelastic elements in parallel. The inverse modeling comprises three complementary approaches: for the simplest configurations, we performed a direct search of the parameter space and delineated the irregular boundary of the subspace of acceptable models. For more complex configurations, we constrained the elastic parameters to their seismically determined values and then solved for viscosity versus depth profiles by either expressing the log(viscosity) versus log(depth) profile as a series of specially constructed orhtogonal polynomials, or by allowing each of 8-10 layers (plus the half-space) to have an independently determined viscosity. We found that the data do not strongly support (nor can they conclusively exclude) a more complex rheology than simple Maxwell viscoelasticity. The orthogonal polynomial solution exhibits an essentially monotonic decrease in viscosity with depth.

Bills, Bruce G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A daily, 250 m and real-time gross primary productivity product (2000–present) covering the contiguous United States

Abstract. Gross primary productivity (GPP) quantifies the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) fixed by plants through photosynthesis. Although as a key quantity of terrestrial ecosystems, there is a lack of high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution, real-time and observation-based GPP products. To address this critical gap, here we leverage a state-of-the-art vegetation index, near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRV), along with accurate photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), to produce a SatelLite Only Photosynthesis Estimation (SLOPE) GPP product for the contiguous United States (CONUS). Compared to existing GPP products, the proposed SLOPE product is advanced in its spatial resolution (250 m versus >500 m), temporal resolution (daily versus 8 d), instantaneity (latency of 1 d versus >2 weeks) and quantitative uncertainty (on a per-pixel and daily basis versus no uncertainty information available). These characteristics are achieved because of several technical innovations employed in this study: (1) SLOPE couples machine learning models with MODIS atmosphere and land products to accurately estimate PAR. (2) SLOPE couples highly efficient and pragmatic gap-filling and filtering algorithms with surface reflectance acquired by both Terra and Aqua MODIS satellites to derive a soil-adjusted NIRV (SANIRV) dataset. (3) SLOPE couples a temporal pattern recognition approach with a long-term Cropland Data Layer (CDL) product to predict dynamic C4 crop fraction. Through developing a parsimonious model with only two slope parameters, the proposed SLOPE product explains 85 % of the spatial and temporal variations in GPP acquired from 49 AmeriFlux eddy-covariance sites (324 site years), with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.63 gC m−2 d−1. The median R2 over C3 and C4 crop sites reaches 0.87 and 0.94, respectively, indicating great potentials for monitoring crops, in particular bioenergy crops, at the field level. With such a satisfactory performance and its distinct characteristics in spatiotemporal resolution and instantaneity, the proposed SLOPE GPP product is promising for biological and environmental research, carbon cycle research, and a broad range of real-time applications at the regional scale. The archived dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1786 (download page: https://daac.ornl.gov/daacdata/cms/SLOPE_GPP_CONUS/data/, last access: 20 January 2021) (Jiang and Guan, 2020), and the real-time dataset is available upon request.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatial patterns of historical crop yields reveal soil health attributes in US Midwest fields

Abstract Attaining high crop yields and increasing carbon storage in agricultural soils, while avoiding negative environmental impacts on water quality, soil erosion, and biodiversity, requires accurate and precise management of crop inputs and management practices. The long-term analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of crop yields provides insights on how yields vary in a field, with parts of field constantly producing either high yields or low yields and other parts that fluctuate from one year to the next. The concept of yield stability has shown to be informative on how plants translate the effects of environmental conditions (e.g., soil, climate, topography) across the field and over the years in the final yield, and as a valuable layer in developing prescription maps of variable fertilizer rate inputs. Using known relationships between soil health and crop yields, we hypothesize that areas with measured constantly low yield will return low carbon to the soil affecting its heath. On this premises, yield stability zones (YSZ) provide an effective and practical integrative measure of the small-scale variability of soil health on a field relative basis. We tested this hypothesis by measuring various metrics of soil health from commercial farmers’ fields in the north central Midwest of the USA in samples replicated across YSZ, using a soil test suite commonly used by producers and stakeholders active in agricultural carbon credits markets. We found that the use of YSZ allowed us to successfully partition field-relative soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil health metrics into statistically distinct regions. Low and stable (LS) yield zones were statistically lower in normalized SOC when compared to high and stable (HS) and unstable (US) yield zones. The drivers of the yield differences within a field are a series of factors ranging from climate, topography and soil. LS zones occur in areas of compacted soil layers or shallow soils (edge of the field) on steeper slopes. The US zones occurring with high water flow accumulation, were more dependent on topography and rainfall. The differences in the components of the overall soil health score (SHS) between these YSZ increased with sample depth suggesting a deeper topsoil in the US and HS zones, driven by the accumulation of water, nutrients, and carbon downslope. Comparison of the field management provided initial evidence that zero tillage reduces the magnitude of the variance in SOC and soil health metrics between the YSZ.

Fowler, Ames↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cyanobacterial circadian regulation enhances bioproduction under subjective nighttime through rewiring of carbon partitioning dynamics, redox balance orchestration, and cell cycle modulation

Abstract Background The industrial feasibility of photosynthetic bioproduction using cyanobacterial platforms remains challenging due to insufficient yields, particularly due to competition between product formation and cellular carbon demands across different temporal phases of growth. This study investigates how circadian clock regulation impacts carbon partitioning between storage, growth, and product synthesis in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942, and provides insights that suggest potential strategies for enhanced bioproduction. Results After entrainment to light-dark cycles, PCC 7942 cultures transitioned to constant light revealed distinct temporal patterns in sucrose production, exhibiting three-fold higher productivity during subjective night compared to subjective day despite moderate down-regulation of genes from the photosynthetic apparatus. This enhanced productivity coincided with reduced glycogen accumulation and halted cell division at subjective night time, suggesting temporal separation of competing processes. Transcriptome analysis revealed coordinated circadian clock-driven adjustment of the cell cycle and rewiring of energy and carbon metabolism, with over 300 genes showing differential expression across four time points. The subjective night was characterized by altered expression of cell division-related genes and reduced expression of genes involved in glycogen synthesis, while showing upregulation of glycogen degradation pathways, alternative electron flow components, the pentose phosphate pathway, and oxidative decarboxylation of pyruvate. These molecular changes created favorable conditions for product formation through enhanced availability of major sucrose precursors (glucose-1-phosphate and fructose-6-phosphate) and maintained redox balance through multiple mechanisms. Conclusions Our analysis of circadian regulatory rewiring of carbon metabolism and redox balancing suggests two potential approaches that could be developed for improving cyanobacterial bioproduction: leveraging natural circadian rhythms for optimizing cultivation conditions and timing of pathway induction, and engineering strains that mimic circadian-driven metabolic shifts through controlled carbon flux redistribution and redox rebalancing. While these strategies remain to be tested, they could theoretically improve the efficiency of photosynthetic bioproduction by enabling better temporal separation between cell growth, carbon storage accumulation, and product synthesis phases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep learning for time series forecasting: a survey of recent advances

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and scientific computing. In recent years, deep learning has become a powerful tool for modeling complex temporal patterns and improving forecasting accuracy. This survey provides an overview of recent deep learning approaches for time series forecasting, involving various architectures including RNNs, CNNs, GNNs, transformers, large language models, MLP-based models, and diffusion models. We first identify key challenges in the field, such as temporal dependency, efficiency, and cross-variable dependency, which drive the development of forecasting techniques. Then, the general advantages and limitations of each architecture are discussed to contextualize their adaptation in time series forecasting. Furthermore, we highlight promising design trends like multi-scale modeling, decomposition, and frequency-domain techniques, which are shaping the future of the field. This paper serves as a compact reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the current landscape and future trajectory of deep learning in time series forecasting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient data-driven regression for reduced-order modeling of spatial pattern formation

We present an efficient data-driven regression approach for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of reaction-diffusion systems exhibiting pattern formation. The ROMs are learned non-intrusively from available training data of physically accurate numerical simulations. The method can be applied to general nonlinear systems through the use of polynomial model form, while not requiring knowledge of the underlying physical model, governing equations, or numerical solvers. The process of learning ROMs is posed as a low-cost least-squares problem in a reduced-order subspace identified via Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). Numerical experiments on classical pattern-forming systems–including the Schnakenberg and Mimura–Tsujikawa models–demonstrate that higher-order surrogate models significantly improve prediction accuracy while maintaining low computational cost. The proposed method provides a flexible, non-intrusive model reduction framework, well suited for the analysis of complex spatio-temporal pattern formation phenomena.

Data-driven modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multidecadal shifts in forest plant diversity and community composition across glacial landforms in northern lower Michigan, USA

Understanding how plant community assemblage is affected by spatial and temporal patterns is crucial to understanding forest ecosystem responses to disturbance, including future climate change. In this article, we tracked how diversity and composition are distributed through space and time in a midsuccessional mixed hardwood forest in northern lower Michigan, United States. This region’s geographically and abiotically distinct glacial landforms influence both the spatial and temporal dynamics of its forest communities. Vegetation sampling plots (n = 87) were established at the University of Michigan Biological Station in 1990 and resampled in 2015. Vegetation in the overstory, sapling, and groundcover layers was censused. Abiotic variables, including elevation, pH, and soil nutrients, were measured in a subset of plots (n = 40). There were strong differences in diversity and community composition among glacial landforms, with the moraine having a 31% greater species richness in the groundcover layer compared with those of the other glacial landforms. Surprisingly, plant communities across all three vegetation layers showed little change over the 25-year period, and we found no evidence of differences in successional rates among glacial landforms. Our findings indicate that glacial landforms have a large influence on the production and maintenance of local plant diversity and community composition in this area and suggest that successional dynamics may manifest themselves over much longer time periods in these northern biomes.

Forestry↗
NASA NTRS1995

Excitable dynamics in high-Lewis number premixed gas combustion at normal and microgravity

Freely-propagating, premixed gas flames in high-Lewis (Le) number, quiescent mixtures are studied experimentally in tubes of various diameter at normal (lg) and microgravity (mu g). A premixture of lean butane and oxygen diluted with helium, argon, neon, nitrogen or a mixture of multiple diluents is examined such that the thermal diffusivity of the mixture (and to a lesser extent, the mass diffusivity of the rate-limiting component) is systematically varied. In effect, different diluents allow variation of the Le without changing the chemistry. The flames are recorded with high speed cinematography and their stability is visually assessed. Different modes of propagation were observed depending on the diameter of the tubes (different conductive heat loss), the composition of the mixture and the g-level. At 1g, four modes of propagation were observed in small and intermediate diameter tubes (large conductive heat loss): (1) steadily propagating flames, (2) radial and longitudinal pulsating flames, (3) 'wavering' flames, and (4) rotating spiral flames. As the diameter of the tube increases, the radial modes become more pronounced while the longitudinal modes systematically disappear. Also, multiple, simultaneous, spatially-separated 'pacemaker' sites are observed in intermediate and large diameter tubes. Each site starts as a small region of high luminosity and develops into a flamelet which assumes the form of one of the fore mentioned modes. These flamelets eventually interact, annihilate each other in their regions of intersection and merge at their newly created free-ends. For very large tubes, radially-propagating wave-trains (believed to be 'trigger waves') are observed. These are analogous to the radial pulsations observed in the smaller diameter tubes. At mu g, three modes of propagation have been observed: (1) steadily propagating flames, (2) radial and longitudinal pulsating flames, and (3) multi-armed, rotating flames. Since the pulsating mode exists at mu g and 1g, buoyant flicker is not the mechanism which drives the pulsations. Moreover, all of the instabilities at 1g and mu g have characteristic frequencies on the O(100Hz). This value is lower than the fundamental, longitudinal acoustic frequencies of the tubes which suggests that the instabilities are not acoustically driven. The patterns formed by this reaction bear remarkable similarities with the patterns formed in most excitable media when the behavior of the system is driven by couplings between chemical reaction and diffusion (e.g., Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction, Patterns in slime molds, spiral waves in the retina of a bird's eye). While it is recognized that the chemical mechanism associated with this premixed gas reaction is exponentially sensitive to temperature and undoubtedly different from those which govern previously observed excitable media (most are isothermal, or weakly exothermic, liquid phase reactions), similar spatial and temporal patterns should not come as a complete surprise considering heat and mass diffusion are self similar. It is concluded that this premixed gas system is a definitive example of a diffusive-thermal, gas-phase oscillator based on these experimental results and their favorable comparison with theory.

Pearlman, Howard↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Remotely-Sensed Estimates of Soil Moisture to Infer Soil Texture and Hydraulic Properties across a Semi-arid Watershed

Near-surface soil moisture is a critical component of land surface energy and water balance studies encompassing a wide range of disciplines. However, the processes of infiltration, runoff, and evapotranspiration in the vadose zone of the soil are not easy to quantify or predict because of the difficulty in accurately representing soil texture and hydraulic properties in land surface models. This study approaches the problem of parameterizing soils from a unique perspective based on components originally developed for operational estimation of soil moisture for mobility assessments. Estimates of near-surface soil moisture derived from passive (L-band) microwave remote sensing were acquired on six dates during the Monsoon '90 experiment in southeastern Arizona, and used to calibrate hydraulic properties in an offline land surface model and infer information on the soil conditions of the region. Specifically, a robust parameter estimation tool (PEST) was used to calibrate the Noah land surface model and run at very high spatial resolution across the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. Errors in simulated versus observed soil moisture were minimized by adjusting the soil texture, which in turn controls the hydraulic properties through the use of pedotransfer functions. By estimating a continuous range of widely applicable soil properties such as sand, silt, and clay percentages rather than applying rigid soil texture classes, lookup tables, or large parameter sets as in previous studies, the physical accuracy and consistency of the resulting soils could then be assessed. In addition, the sensitivity of this calibration method to the number and timing of microwave retrievals is determined in relation to the temporal patterns in precipitation and soil drying. The resultant soil properties were applied to an extended time period demonstrating the improvement in simulated soil moisture over that using default or county-level soil parameters. The methodology is also applied to an independent case at Walnut Gulch using a new soil moisture product from active (C-band) radar imagery with much lower spatial and temporal resolution. Overall, results demonstrate the potential to gain physically meaningful soils information using simple parameter estimation with few but appropriately timed remote sensing retrievals.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Clustering and Classification of Outage Patterns with Insights into their Links to Extreme Events

At a global level extreme events have increased in both scale and impact. These events have the potential to affect the electrical grid infrastructure and cause a wide range of outages, which can lead to a disruption in daily patterns, cost millions of dollars and also the loss of life. Currently, to track these outage events there have been various approaches developed ranging from regional to national level quantifications for what defines an outage. However, this variation in methods can potentially lead to subjective decision-making and a lack of proper management in relation to the event. While previous work has made strides in determining spatio-temporal patterns, minimal attention has been given to the type and number of outages an area may be exposed to. The differences in incurred cost and the overall severity of an event between a transformer box malfunction and a hurricane are drastic, and by finding historical signals, we can allow for more efficient management, potentially saving lives and millions of dollars. Here, we leverage unsupervised machine learning techniques to delineate outage patterns among 22 counties within the United States and find that there are clear, segregated clusters (0.93 silhouette) of data which are related by event behavior and underlying cause. This finding will allow for energy stakeholders, policy makers, and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the extent and severity of historic events and to better prepare for electrical grid infrastructure planning and management.

Koob, Benjamin [ORNL]↗
NASA NTRS1987

Adaptation, plant evolution, and the fossil record

The importance of adaptation in determining patterns of evolution has become an important focus of debate in evolutionary biology. As it pertains to paleobotany, the issue is whether or not adaptive evolution mediated by natural selection is sufficient to explain the stratigraphic distributions of taxa and character states observed in the plant fossil record. One means of addressing this question is the functional evaluation of stratigraphic series of plant organs set in the context of paleoenvironmental change and temporal patterns of floral composition within environments. For certain organ systems, quantitative estimates of biophysical performance can be made on the basis of structures preserved in the fossil record. Performance estimates for plants separated in time or space can be compared directly. Implicit in different hypotheses of the forces that shape the evolutionary record (e.g. adaptation, mass extinction, rapid environmental change, chance) are predictions about stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental trends in the efficacy of functional performance. Existing data suggest that following the evolution of a significant structural innovation, adaptation for improved functional performance can be a major determinant of evolutionary changes in plants; however, there are structural and development limits to functional improvement, and once these are reached, the structure in question may no longer figure strongly in selection until and unless a new innovation evolves. The Silurian-Devonian paleobotanical record is consistent with the hypothesis that the succession of lowland floodplain dominants preserved in the fossil record of this interval was determined principally by the repeated evolution of new taxa that rose to ecological importance because of competitive advantages conferred by improved biophysical performance. This does not seem to be equally true for Carboniferous-Jurassic dominants of swamp and lowland floodplain environments. In these cases, environmental disruption appears to have been a major factor in shaping the fossil record. This does not mean that continuing adaptation was not important during this interval, but it may indicate that adaptive evolution was strongest in environments other than those best represented in the paleobotanical record.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Step-patterned survivorship curves: Mortality and loss of equilibrium responses to high temperature and food restriction in juvenile rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss )

While survivorship curves typically exhibit smooth declines over time, step-patterned curves can occur with multiple stressors within a life stage. To explore this process, we examined the effects of heat (24°C) and food restriction on juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss Walbaum) in challenge experiments. We observed step-patterned survivorship curves determined by mortality and loss of equilibrium (LOE) endpoints. To examine the cause of heterogeneity in the stress responses from early to late mortality and LOE, we measured indices of energetic reserves. The step transition in the survivorship curves, the peak mortality rates, and start of when individuals reached a critical energetic threshold (14% dry mass; 4.0 kJ∙g -1 energy) all occurred at around days 10–15 of the challenge. The coherence in these temporal patterns suggest heterogeneity in the cohort stress responses, in which an early subgroup died from heat stress and a late subgroup died from starvation. Thus, their endpoint sensitivities resulted in step-patterned survivorship curves. We discuss the implications of the study for understanding effects of multiple stressors on population heterogeneity and note the possible significance of stress response selection under climate change in which heat stress and food limitations occur in concert.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗