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NASA NTRS1992

Pervasive variability in the quiet solar transition region

Extreme UV spectroheliograms from an experimental time series are employed to investigate the nature of the quiet solar transition region with respect to temporal variability. A statistical treatment is developed to analyze the fraction of spatial elements that yield intensity variations significantly higher than the signal noise. The EUV intensity in every spatial resolution varies on a time scale of minutes by about 10-30 percent, and the fractional amplitude of the temporal variations is found to be nearly independent of mean intensity. The paper concludes that the quiet solar transition region is probably generated and modulated by small-scale magnetic activity, since the temporal variability in the transition region is spatially uniform and rather pervasive.

Rabin, Douglas↗

NASA NTRS2015

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Celine J W Bonfils↗

NASA NTRS2015

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Linking OH Variability to Observable Variables, Meteorology and Transport

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays a vital role in tropospheric chemistry, as it provides the dominant sink for a multitude of pollutants and climate-relevant gases such as methane. Observational constraints on the global distribution and temporal variability of OH are limited, and models simulate a wide range of OH distributions. While OH itself has a short atmospheric lifetime, OH is photochemically coupled to longer-lived species that undergo atmospheric transport. Here, we investigate how much of the OH variability within and between models can be explained by differences in observable species to develop diagnostics for OH differences. We find that NO 2 and water vapor together explain much of the spatial and temporal variability in simulated OH, and we use satellite observations to identify biases in these variables. The OH response to ENSO also differs between models, and we investigate potential causes of these differences such as differences in convection or lightning NOx. We also explore the potential of idealized tracers to represent the OH distribution. Within a single model, meteorological variables such as humidity and idealized tracers of transport can explain a significant portion of the OH spatial variability. We use a Gradient Boosted Regression Trees, a type of machine learning, to account for non-linear relationships between OH and the input variables.

Meteorology↗

NASA NTRS1998

Real Time Land-Surface Hydrologic Modeling Over Continental US

The land surface component of the hydrological cycle is fundamental to the overall functioning of the atmospheric and climate processes. Spatially and temporally variable rainfall and available energy, combined with land surface heterogeneity cause complex variations in all processes related to surface hydrology. The characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of water and energy cycles are critical to improve our understanding of land surface-atmosphere interaction and the impact of land surface processes on climate extremes. Because the accurate knowledge of these processes and their variability is important for climate predictions, most Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers have incorporated land surface schemes in their models. However, errors in the NWP forcing accumulate in the surface and energy stores, leading to incorrect surface water and energy partitioning and related processes. This has motivated the NWP to impose ad hoc corrections to the land surface states to prevent this drift. A proposed methodology is to develop Land Data Assimilation schemes (LDAS), which are uncoupled models forced with observations, and not affected by NWP forcing biases. The proposed research is being implemented as a real time operation using an existing Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (SVATS) model at a 40 km degree resolution across the United States to evaluate these critical science questions. The model will be forced with real time output from numerical prediction models, satellite data, and radar precipitation measurements. Model parameters will be derived from the existing GIS vegetation and soil coverages. The model results will be aggregated to various scales to assess water and energy balances and these will be validated with various in-situ observations.

Houser, Paul R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Polar Wind in the Context of the Auroral Plasma Fountain for 2 to 8 RE

Operations of the POLAR Plasma Source Instrument have provided adequate observing time with controlled spacecraft potential to begin a 3D characterization of the polar wind as it exists in the context of the auroral plasma fountain. The principal periods of such polar wind observation to date have been 15-18 Apr. 96, 28 may 96, 14 Jun. - 6 Sep. 96, 17-29 Mar. 97, 29 May - 12 Jun. 97, 13-27 Aug. 97. Separate observations have been made near 2 RE geocentric in the south polar perigee passes and between 6-8 RE geocentric in the north polar apogee passes. Analyses of data from the Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment during these periods are used to characterize the altitude, local time, and invariant latitude distribution of the polar wind. Data from these and other periods are used to establish the auroral plasma heating context within which the polar wind outflows exist. The available data will be used to address the temporal variability of the polar wind during the period of operations to date. Comparisons between the observations and a coupled fluid-semikinetic model are used to interpret the observed spatial structure and temporal variability.

Moore, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth's energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account

Robert, J. Brent↗

NASA NTRS2012

Characterization of Turbulent Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Exchange Between the Atmosphere and Ocean in MERRA

Turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing both the spatiotemporal variability and the fidelity of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. This study examines the veracity of the recently completed NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product with respect to its representation of the surface turbulent heat fluxes. A validation of MERRA turbulent heat fluxes and near-surface bulk variables at local, high-resolution space and time scales is achieved by making comparisons to a large suite of direct observations. Both in situ and satellite-observed gridded surface heat flux estimates are employed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the surface fluxes with respect to their annual mean climatologies, their seasonal covariability of near-surface bulk parameters, and their representation of extremes. The impact of data assimilation on the near-surface parameters is assessed through evaluation of incremental analysis update tendencies produced by the assimilation procedure. It is found that MERRA turbulent surface heat fluxes are relatively accurate for typical conditions but have systematically weak vertical gradients in moisture and temperature and have a weaker covariability between the near-surface gradients and wind speed than found in observations. This results in an underestimate of the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes over the western boundary current and storm track regions. The assimilation of observations mostly acts to bring MERRA closer to observational products by increasing moisture and temperature near the surface and decreasing the near-surface wind speeds. The major patterns of spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent heat fluxes produced by MERRA compare favorably to observationally based estimates. However, MERRA is distinct in terms of amplitude. These results suggest that MERRA is likely to be a valuable resource for a number of research applications though, as with all turbulent flux estimates, systematic issues should be taken into account.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

NASA NTRS2015

Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

Groundwater↗

NASA NTRS2015

Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

water cycle↗

NASA NTRS2010

Needs Assessment for the Use of NASA Remote Sensing Data in the Development and Implementation of Estuarine and Coastal Water Quality Standards

The goals of the project are to provide information from satellite remote sensing to support numeric nutrient criteria development and to determine data processing methods and data quality requirements to support nutrient criteria development and implementation. The approach is to identify water quality indicators that are used by decision makers to assess water quality and that are related to optical properties of the water; to develop remotely sensed data products based on algorithms relating remote sensing imagery to field-based observations of indicator values; to develop methods to assess estuarine water quality, including trends, spatial and temporal variability, and seasonality; and to develop tools to assist in the development and implementation of estuarine and coastal nutrient criteria. Additional slides present process, criteria development, typical data sources and analyses for criteria process, the power of remote sensing data for the process, examples from Pensacola Bay, spatial and temporal variability, pixel matchups, remote sensing validation, remote sensing in coastal waters, requirements for remotely sensed data products, and needs assessment. An additional presentation examines group engagement and information collection. Topics include needs assessment purpose and objectives, understanding water quality decision making, determining information requirements, and next steps.

Spiering, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

NASA NTRS1986

Time dependent wind fields

Two tasks were performed: (1) determination of the accuracy of Seasat scatterometer, altimeter, and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer measurements of wind speed; and (2) application of Seasat altimeter measurements of sea level to study the spatial and temporal variability of geostrophic flow in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The results of the first task have identified systematic errors in wind speeds estimated by all three satellite sensors. However, in all cases the errors are correctable and corrected wind speeds agree between the three sensors to better than 1 ms sup -1 in 96-day 2 deg. latitude by 6 deg. longitude averages. The second task has resulted in development of a new technique for using altimeter sea level measurements to study the temporal variability of large scale sea level variations. Application of the technique to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current yielded new information about the ocean circulation in this region of the ocean that is poorly sampled by conventional ship-based measurements.

Chelton, D. B.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctica’s floating ice shelves accounts for about half of their mass loss in steady state, where gains in ice-shelf mass are balanced by losses. Ice-shelf thickness changes driven by varying basal melt rates modulate mass loss from the grounded ice sheet and its contribution to sea level, and the changing meltwater fluxes influence climate processes in the Southern Ocean. Existing continent-wide melt-rate datasets have no temporal variability, introducing uncertainties in sea level and climate projections. Here, we combine surface height data from satellite radar altimeters with satellite-derived ice velocities and a new model of firn-layer evolution to generate a high-resolution map of time-averaged (2010–2018) basal melt rates and time series (1994–2018) of meltwater fluxes for most ice shelves. Total basal meltwater flux in 1994 (1,090 ± 150 Gt/yr) was similar to the steady-state value (1,100 ± 60 Gt/yr), but increased to 1,570 ± 140 Gt/yr in 2009, followed by a decline to 1,160 ± 150 Gt/yr in 2018. For the four largest ‘cold-water’ ice shelves, we partition meltwater fluxes into deep and shallow sources to reveal distinct signatures of temporal variability, providing insights into climate forcing of basal melting and the impact of this melting on the Southern Ocean.

Susheel Adusumilli↗

NASA NTRS2020

Temporal and spatial variability in surface roughness and accumulation rate around 88° S from repeat airborne geophysical surveys

We use repeat high-resolution airborne geophysical data consisting of laser altimetry, snow, and Ku-band radar and optical imagery acquired in 2014, 2016, and 2017 to analyze the spatial and temporal variability in surface roughness, slope, wind deposition, and snow accumulation at 88° S, an elevation bias validation site for ICESat-2 and potential validation site for CryoSat-2. We find significant small-scale variability (<10 km) in snow accumulation based on the snow radar subsurface stratigraphy, indicating areas of strong wind redistribution are prevalent at 88° S. In general, highs in snow accumulation rate correspond with topographic lows, resulting in a negative correlation coefficient of r(exp 2)=−0.32 between accumulation rate and MSWD (mean slope in the mean wind direction). This relationship is strongest in areas where the dominant wind direction is parallel to the survey profile, which is expected as the geophysical surveys only capture a two-dimensional cross section of snow redistribution. Variability in snow accumulation appears to correlate with variability in MSWD. The correlation coefficient between the standard deviations of accumulation rate and MSWD is r(exp 2)=0.48, indicating a stronger link between the standard deviations than the actual parameters. Our analysis shows that there is no simple relationship between surface slope, wind direction, and snow accumulation rates for the overall survey area. We find high variability in surface roughness derived from laser altimetry measurements on length scales smaller than 10 km, sometimes with very distinct and sharp transitions. Some areas also show significant temporal variability over the course of the 3 survey years. Ultimately, there is no statistically significant slope-independent relationship between surface roughness and accumulation rates within our survey area. The observed correspondence between the small-scale temporal and spatial variability in surface roughness and backscatter, as evidenced by Ku-band radar signal strength retrievals, will make it difficult to develop elevation bias corrections for radar altimeter retrieval algorithms.

Michael Studinger↗

NASA NTRS2015

Characterization of the Temporal-Spatial Variability of Trans-Atlantic Dust Transport Based on CALIPSO Lidar Measurements

The trans-Atlantic dust transport has important implications for human and ecosystem health, the terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemical cycle, weather systems, and climate. A reliable assessment of these influences requires the characterization of dust distributions in three dimensions and over long time periods. We provide an observation-based multiyear estimate of trans-Atlantic dust transport by using a 7-year (2007 - 2013) lidar record from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) in both cloud-free and above-cloud conditions. We estimate that on a basis of the 7-year average and integration over 10S - 30N, 182 Tg a-1 dust leaves the coast of North Africa at 15W, of which 132 Tg a-1 and 43 Tg a-1 reaches 35W and 75W, respectively. These flux estimates have an overall known uncertainty of (45 - 70). The 7-year average of dust deposition into the Amazon Basin is estimated to be 28 (8 - 48) Tg a-1 or 29 (8 - 50) kg ha-1 a-1. This imported dust could provide about 0.022 (0.006 - 0.037) Tg P of phosphorus per year, equivalent to 23 (7 - 39) g P ha-1 a-1 to fertilize the Amazon rainforest, which is comparable to the loss of phosphorus to rainfall. Significant seasonal variations are observed in both the magnitude of total dust transport and its meridional and vertical distributions. The observed large interannual variability of annual dust transport is highly anti-correlated with the prior-year Sahel Precipitation Index. Comparisons of CALIPSO measurements with surface-based observations and model simulations will also be discussed.

Transport↗

NASA NTRS2009

Space Technology 5 Multipoint Observations of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Field-Aligned Currents

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a constellation mission consisting of three microsatellites. It provides the first multipoint magnetic field measurements in low Earth orbit, which enables us to separate spatial and temporal variations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using the ST5 data. We examine the field-aligned current observations during and after a geomagnetic storm and compare the magnetic field profiles at the three spacecraft. The multipoint data demonstrate that mesoscale current structures, commonly embedded within large-scale current sheets, are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in approx.10 min time scales. On the other hand, the data also show that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approx.1 min for mesoscale currents and approx.10 min for large-scale currents. These temporal features are very likely associated with dynamic variations of their charge carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of mesoscale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Le, G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) Multipoint Observations of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Field-Aligned Currents

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from ST5. The data demonstrate that mesoscale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of about 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are about 1 min for meso-scale currents and about 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Le, Guan↗