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NASA NTRS1987

Statistical aspects of solar flares

A survey of the statistical properties of 850 H alpha solar flares during 1975 is presented. Comparison of the results found here with those reported elsewhere for different epochs is accomplished. Distributions of rise time, decay time, and duration are given, as are the mean, mode, median, and 90th percentile values. Proportions by selected groupings are also determined. For flares in general, mean values for rise time, decay time, and duration are 5.2 + or - 0.4 min, and 18.1 + or 1.1 min, respectively. Subflares, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the flares, had mean values lower than those found for flares of H alpha importance greater than 1, and the differences are statistically significant. Likewise, flares of bright and normal relative brightness have mean values of decay time and duration that are significantly longer than those computed for faint flares, and mass-motion related flares are significantly longer than non-mass-motion related flares. Seventy-three percent of the mass-motion related flares are categorized as being a two-ribbon flare and/or being accompanied by a high-speed dark filament. Slow rise time flares (rise time greater than 5 min) have a mean value for duration that is significantly longer than that computed for fast rise time flares, and long-lived duration flares (duration greater than 18 min) have a mean value for rise time that is significantly longer than that computed for short-lived duration flares, suggesting a positive linear relationship between rise time and duration for flares. Monthly occurrence rates for flares in general and by group are found to be linearly related in a positive sense to monthly sunspot number. Statistical testing reveals the association between sunspot number and numbers of flares to be significant at the 95 percent level of confidence, and the t statistic for slope is significant at greater than 99 percent level of confidence. Dependent upon the specific fit, between 58 percent and 94 percent of the variation can be accounted for with the linear fits. A statistically significant Northern Hemisphere flare excess (P less than 1 percent) was found, as was a Western Hemisphere excess (P approx 3 percent). Subflares were more prolific within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent), while flares of H alpha importance or = 1 were more prolific near the limbs greater than 45 deg from central meridian; P approx 2 percent). Two-ribbon flares were more frequent within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent). Slow rise time flares occurred more frequently in the western hemisphere (P approx 2 percent), as did short-lived duration flares (P approx 9 percent), but fast rise time flares were not preferentially distributed (in terms of east-west or limb-disk). Long-lived duration flares occurred more often within 45 deg 0 central meridian (P approx 7 percent). Mean durations for subflares and flares of H alpha importance or + 1, found within 45 deg of central meridian, are 14 percent and 70 percent, respectively, longer than those found for flares closer to the limb. As compared to flares occurring near cycle maximum, the flares of 1975 (near solar minimum) have mean values of rise time, decay time, and duration that are significantly shorter. A flare near solar maximum, on average, is about 1.6 times longer than one occurring near solar minimum.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Wheeler, J. T.↗

DOE OSTI2022

DefectTrack: a deep learning-based multi-object tracking algorithm for quantitative defect analysis of in-situ TEM videos in real-time

Abstract In-situ irradiation transmission electron microscopy (TEM) offers unique insights into the millisecond-timescale post-cascade process, such as the lifetime and thermal stability of defect clusters, vital to the mechanistic understanding of irradiation damage in nuclear materials. Converting in-situ irradiation TEM video data into meaningful information on defect cluster dynamic properties (e.g., lifetime) has become the major technical bottleneck. Here, we present a solution called the DefectTrack , the first dedicated deep learning-based one-shot multi-object tracking (MOT) model capable of tracking cascade-induced defect clusters in in-situ TEM videos in real-time. DefectTrack has achieved a Multi-Object Tracking Accuracy (MOTA) of 66.43% and a Mostly Tracked (MT) of 67.81% on the test set, which are comparable to state-of-the-art MOT algorithms. We discuss the MOT framework, model selection, training, and evaluation strategies for in-situ TEM applications. Further, we compare the DefectTrack with four human experts in quantifying defect cluster lifetime distributions using statistical tests and discuss the relationship between the material science domain metrics and MOT metrics. Our statistical evaluations on the defect lifetime distribution suggest that the DefectTrack outperforms human experts in accuracy and speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Emissions and Flame Structure Assessment of Aeroengine Micromixing Injectors for Lean Direct Injection of Hydrogen and Hydrogen/Natural Gas Blends

Abstract The present study focuses on whether adapting low emissions liquid fuel injection concepts can be applied to gaseous mixtures. The goal is to develop an injector with specific geometric characteristics that will achieve the lowest emissions. This is conducted by evaluating emissions and flame diagnostics on a set of test hardware that has been developed for combustion of pure hydrogen and hydrogen/methane mixtures. The current test hardware adapts lean direct injection concepts from aeroengine injectors to a ground-based engine based on target flows associated with a Solar Turbines Industrial Engine gas turbine. A statistical test plan was developed to assess these geometric characteristics using a three level Box Behnken design. The test plan investigates the effect of injector flow splits, air swirl, fuel swirl, pressure drop, preheat temperature, fuel composition, and the adiabatic flame temperature on the flame structure and emissions performance. A total of 16 injectors were considered for a total of 688 test points for emission and imaging data. Emissions data were reported on a mass basis in ng/J and chemical reactor network analysis were conducted to further interpret emissions behavior. Images were also captured to analyze the flame structure features of interest including reaction volume, flame length, flame spread, and flame width. With these results, a predictive model for emissions was made to conclude the most optimal injector configuration is to have the highest level of air split (more volume of air through the injector plate versus the injector) and air swirl angle for both methane and hydrogen gas mixtures. The predictive emissions level for all of these cases were below 10 ng/J.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cervical Precancers and Cancers Attributed to HPV Types by Race and Ethnicity: Implications for Vaccination, Screening, and Management

Abstract Background Racial and ethnic variations in attribution of cervical precancer and cancer to human papillomavirus (HPV) types may result in different HPV vaccine protection, screening test coverage, and clinical management. Methods Pooling data from 7 US studies, we calculated the proportional attribution of precancers and cancers to HPV types using HPV DNA typing from diagnosis. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results For all racial and ethnic groups, most cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) (84.2%-90.8% of 5526) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (90.4%-93.8% of 1138) were attributed to types targeted by the 9-valent vaccine. A higher proportion of CIN3s were attributed to nonvaccine HPV types among non-Hispanic Black women (15.8%) compared with non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (9.7%; P = .002), non-Hispanic White (9.2%; P < .001), and Hispanic (11.3%; P = .004) women. The proportion of SCCs attributed to 9-valent types was similar by race and ethnicity (P = .80). A higher proportion of CIN3s were attributed to nonvaccine HPV35 among non-Hispanic Black (9.0%) compared with non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander (2.2%), non-Hispanic White (2.5%), and Hispanic (3.0%; all P < .001) women. Compared with CIN3, the proportion of SCCs attributed to HPV35 among non-Hispanic Black women (3.2%) was lower and closer to other groups (0.3%-2.1%; P = .70). Conclusion The 9-valent HPV vaccine will prevent nearly all cervical precancers and invasive cancers among major racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Adding HPV35 to vaccines could prevent a small percentage of CIN3s and SCCs, with greater potential impact for CIN3s among Black women. HPV screening tests target high-risk HPV types, including HPV35. Future genotyping triage strategies could consider the importance of HPV35- and other HPV16-related types.

Mix, Jacqueline (ORCID:0000000164187706)↗

DOE OSTI2021

The clustering of the SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey quasar sample: testing observational systematics on the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurement

ABSTRACT Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) are considered to be a very robust standard ruler against various systematics. This premise has been tested against observational systematics, but not to the level required for the next generation of galaxy surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and Euclid. In this paper, we investigate the effect of observational systematics on the BAO measurement of the final sample of quasars from the extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 16 in order to prepare and hone a similar analysis for upcoming surveys. We employ catalogues with various treatments of imaging systematic effects using linear and neural network-based non-linear approaches and consider how the BAO measurement changes. We also test how the variations to the BAO fitting model respond to the observational systematics. As expected, we confirm that the BAO measurements obtained from the DR16 quasar sample are robust against imaging systematics well within the statistical error, while reporting slightly modified constraints that shift the line-of-sight BAO signal by less than 1.1 per cent. We use realistic simulations with similar redshift and angular distributions as the DR16 sample to conduct statistical tests for validating the pipeline, quantifying the significance of differences, and estimating the expected bias on the BAO scale in future high-precision data sets. Although we find a marginal impact for the eBOSS QSO data, the work presented here is of vital importance for constraining the nature of dark energy with the BAO feature in the new era of big data cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

DO 365 Test Procedure Results and Analysis Discussion

CAL will leverage M&S tools and existing encounter data to evaluate the robustness of the DAA MOPS Test Procedures. Recently, the SC-147 ACAS-Xu team performed an analysis evaluating the Xu implementation against the DAA MOPS test procedures. Several areas of non-compliance were raised, some indicating shortfalls in our DAA test procedures and/or requirements. The ACAS-Xu team is expected to put out a report highlighting these exemptions. This work will build off that ACAS-Xu analysis/report and perform a full characterization of the statistical test procedures and document the findings. Additionally, CAL will provide recommendations for addressing these findings, potentially resulting in changes to test procedures and/or requirements.

ACAS-Xu↗

DOE OSTI2020

AFIP6-MkII and RERTR-12 Porosity Data Collection and Analysis for Modeling and Simulation

Gathering data for the improvement of nuclear fuel modeling and simulation efforts is the primary driver for this work. Mechanistic models allow for a better understanding of the material on a micro- and macrostructural level while saving time and money over traditional experiment efforts. Historically, summarized data and correlations are the inputs for empirical material models and model validation. When improving these models for nuclear fuels with experimental results, there is a lack of reliable data readily available. Experiments - RERTR-12 and AFIP6-MkII - were conducted to understand the irradiation behavior of metallic U-10Mo monolithic fuels for use in extreme reactor environments such as research reactors like the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) or the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Microstructural characteristics of fission gas pores (FGP) in each experiment are collected using an automated image analysis technique developed at the University of Florida and presented here. A series of statistical tests are performed to explore the reliability of the results, as well as understand where the data is lacking and what future data collection is necessary to provide sufficient information to assist modeling efforts. The focus is on the porosity, pore size, and eccentricity of FGPs formed during irradiation in three AFIP6-MkII samples and one RERTR-12 sample. From the analysis, it is clear there are substantial impacts of fission density on the pore structure, but there also exist also underlying connections between each sample and the behavior observed in the pores. Further analyses of the pre- and post-irradiation microstructure are needed to improve the understanding of these connections. An early method for microstructural data analysis is presented within and is currently being expanded to include other microstructure data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detectability of neutrino-signal fluctuations induced by the hadron-quark phase transition in failing core-collapse supernovae

Here we introduce a systematic and quantitative methodology for establishing the presence of neutrino oscillatory signals due to the hadron-quark phase transition (PT) in failing core-collapse supernovae from the observed neutrino event rate in water- or ice-based neutrino detectors. The methodology uses a likelihood ratio in the frequency domain as a test-statistic; it is employed for quantitative analysis of neutrino signals without assuming the frequency, amplitude, starting time, and duration of the PT-induced oscillations present in the neutrino events and thus it is suitable for analyzing neutrino signals from a wide variety of numerical simulations. We test the validity of this method by using a core-collapse simulation of a 17 solar-mass star by Zha et al. [Astrophys. J. 911, 74 (2021) ]. Based on this model, we further report the presence of a PT-induced oscillations quantitatively for a core-collapse supernovae out to a distance of ~10 kpc, ~5 kpc for IceCube and to a distance of ~10 kpc, ~5 kpc, and ~1 kpc for a 0.4 Mt mass water Cherenkov detector. This methodology will aid the investigation of a future galactic supernova and the study of hadron-quark phase in the core of core-collapse supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Thermal advection and stratification effects on surface winds and the low level meridional mass transport

Statistical tests are performed on the Seasat scatterometer observations to examine if and to what degree thermal advection and stratification effects manifest themselves in these remotely sensed measurements of mean wind and wind stress over the ocean. On the basis of a two layer baroclinic boundary layer model which is presented, it is shown that the thermal advection and stratification of the entire boundary layer as well as the geostrophic forcing influence the modeled near surface wind and wind stress profiles. Evidence of diurnal variation in the stratification under barotropic conditions is found in the data, with the daytime marine boundary layer being more convective than its nighttime counterpart. The temporal and spacial sampling pattern of the satellite makes it impossible to recover the full diurnal cycle, however. The observed effects of the thermal advection are shown to be statistically significant during the day (and presumed more convective) hours, causing a systematic increase in the poleward transport of mass and heat. The statistical results are in a qualitative agreement with the model simulations and cannot be reproduced in randomized control tests.

Levy, Gad↗

NASA NTRS1979

Application of modified profile analysis to function testing of the motion/no-motion issue in an aircraft ground-handling simulation

A recent modification of the methodology of profile analysis, which allows the testing for differences between two functions as a whole with a single test, rather than point by point with multiple tests is discussed. The modification is applied to the examination of the issue of motion/no motion conditions as shown by the lateral deviation curve as a function of engine cut speed of a piloted 737-100 simulator. The results of this application are presented along with those of more conventional statistical test procedures on the same simulator data.

Parrish, R. V.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Slow crack growth in spinel in water

Magnesium aluminate spinel was tested in a water environment at room temperature to establish its slow crack-growth behavior. Ring specimens with artificial flaws on the outside surface were loaded hydraulically on the inside surface. The time to failure was measured. Various precracking techniques were evaluated and multiple precracks were used to minimize the scatter in the static fatigue tests. Statistical analysis techniques were developed to determine the strength and crack velocities for a single flaw. Slow crack-growth rupture was observed at stress intensities as low as 70 percent of K sub c. A strengthening effect was observed in specimens that had survived long-time static fatigue tests.

Schwantes, S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Soft Decision Analyzer

Lansdowne, Chatwin↗

NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Coronal Abundance Variations

The PI of this project was Jeff Scargle of NASA/Ames. Co-I's were Alma Connors of Eureka Scientific/Wellesley, and myself. Part of the work was subcontracted to Eureka Scientific via SAO, with Vinay Kashyap as PI. This project was originally assigned grant number NCC2-1206, and was later changed to NCC2-1350 for administrative reasons. The goal of the project was to obtain, derive, and develop statistical and data analysis tools that would be of use in the analyses of high-resolution, high-sensitivity data that are becoming available with new instruments. This is envisioned as a cross-disciplinary effort with a number of "collaborators" including some at SA0 (Aneta Siemiginowska, Peter Freeman) and at the Harvard Statistics department (David van Dyk, Rostislav Protassov, Xiao-li Meng, Epaminondas Sourlas, et al). We have developed a new tool to reliably measure the metallicities of thermal plasma. It is unfeasible to obtain high-resolution grating spectra for most stars, and one must make the best possible determination based on lower-resolution, CCD-type spectra. It has been noticed that most analyses of such spectra have resulted in measured metallicities that were significantly lower than when compared with analyses of high- resolution grating data where available (see, e.g., Brickhouse et al., 2000, ApJ 530,387). Such results have led to the proposal of the existence of so-called Metal Abundance Deficient, or "MAD" stars (e.g., Drake, J.J., 1996, Cool Stars 9, ASP Conf.Ser. 109, 203). We however find that much of these analyses may be systematically underestimating the metallicities, and using a newly developed method to correctly treat the low-counts regime at the high-energy tail of the stellar spectra (van Dyk et al. 2001, ApJ 548,224), have found that the metallicities of these stars are generally comparable to their photospheric values. The results were reported at the AAS (Sourlas, Yu, van Dyk, Kashyap, and Drake, 2000, BAAS 196, v32, #54.02), and at the conference on Statistical Challenges in Modem Astronomy (Sourlas, van Dyk, Kashyap, Drake, and Pease, 2003, SCMA 111, Eds. E.D.Feigelson, G.J.Babu, New York:Springer, p489-490). We also described the limitations of one of the most egregiously misused and misapplied statistical tests in astrophysical literature, the F-test for verifying model components (Protassov, van Dyk, Connors, Kashyap, and Siemiginowska, 2002, ApJ, 571,545). Indeed, a search through the ApJ archives turned up 170 papers in the 5 previous years that used the F-test explicitly in some form or the other, and with the vast majority of them not using it correctly! Indeed, looking at just 4 issues of the ApJ in 2001, we found 13 instances of its use, of which nine were demonstrably incorrect. Clearly, it is difficult to understate the importance of this issue. We also worked on speeding up Bayes Blocks and Sparse Bayes Blocks algorithms to make them more tractable for large searches. We also supported staistics students and postdocs in both explicit physics- model-based (spectra with tens of thousands of atomic lines) and "model-free" -- i.e. non-parametric or semi-parametric -- algorithms. Work on using more of the latter is just beginning; while using multi-scale methods for Poisson imaging has come to hition. In fact, "An Image Restoration Technique with Error Estimates", by D. Esch, A. Connors, M. Karovska, and D. van Dyk, was published by ApJ (Esch et a1.2004, ApJ, 610, 1213). The code has been delivered to M. Karovska for CXC; and is available for beta-testing upon request. The other large project we worked on was on the self-consistent modeling of logN-logs curves in the Poisson limit. logN-logs curves are a fundamental tool in the study of source populations, luminosity functions, and cosmological parameters. However, their determination is hampered by statistical effects such as the Eddington bias, incompleteness due to detection efficiency, faint source flux fluctuations, etc. We have develed a new and powerful method using the full Poisson machinery that allows us to model the logN-logs distribution of X-ray sources in a self-consistent manner. Because we properly account for all the above statistical effects, our modeling is valid over the full range of the data, and not just for strong sources, as is normally done. Using a Bayesian approach and modeling the fluxes with known functional forms such as simple or broken power-laws, and conditioning the expected photon counts on the fluxes, the background contamination, effective area, detector vignetting, and detection probability, we can delve deeply into the low counts regime and extend the usefulness of medium sensitivity surveys such as ChAMP by orders of magnitude. The built-in flexibility of the algorithm also allows a simultaneous analysis of multiple datasets. We have applied this analysis to a set a Chandra observations (Sourlas, Kashyap, Zezas, van Dyk, 2004, HEAD #8, #16.32)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale spatial analysis of fracture arrangement and pattern reconstruction using Ripley's K-function

This work presents novel multiscale spatial data analytics using Ripley's K-function, as a measure of spatial interaction, to study one-dimensional arrangement of fractures. Fracture spatial arrangements are classified into clustered, anticlustered, or indistinguishable from random by testing statistical significance of the calculated Ripley's K-function. Characterizations of fracture arrangements are performed as a function of length scale and position. Analysis of the K-function along the study interval identifies where fracture clustering and anticlustering occur. Here, a simulation technique is also introduced here to statistically reconstruct spatial arrangements and to generate fracture realizations that are spatially similar to the fractures observed in the field. With this simulation technique, one can also fill spatial gaps in fracture measurements where data are absent, unreliable, or unused. Synthetic as well as field-measured 1D fracture datasets are used for testing and demonstration. Methods introduced in this work can be readily applied to fracture datasets observed in outcrops, borehole image logs, and cores.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

PNNL-Predictive-Phenomics/ProteoMeter

ProteoMeter is a Python package that assists in the statistical analysis of global proteomics, protein post-translation modification (PTM), and limited proteolysis (LiP) data. It contains batch correction, normalization, and statistical testing methods, as well as functions that "roll up" peptide-level data to the single-site level. It has a robust user configuration system, allowing it to flexibly integrate different types of experiment designs. For basic usage, a simple configuration file provides the essential functionality. Advanced users have access to the entire statistical pipeline for fine-tuning analyses. Processed data is easily exported to many common spreadsheet and data-frame formats.

Rozum, Jordan [Pacific Northwest National Lab]↗

NASA NTRS1996

The Effects of Using Space to Teach Standard Elementary School Curriculum

This brief report and recommendation for further research brings to a formal close this effort, the original purpose of which is described in detail in The effects of using space to teach standard elementary school curriculum, Volume 1, included here as the Appendix. Volume 1 describes the project as a 3-year research program to determine the effectiveness of using space to teach. The research design is quasi experimental using standardized test data on students from Aldrin Elementary School and a District-identified 'control' school, which shall be referred to as 'School B.' Students now in fourth through sixth grades will be compared now (after one year at Aldrin) and tracked at least until the present sixth graders are through the eighth grade. Appropriate statistical tests will be applied to standardized test scores to see if Aldrin students are 'better' than School B students in areas such as: Overall academic performance; Performance in math/science; and Enrollments in math/science in middle school.

Ewell, Robert N.↗