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A new 129 to 129 Xe method to obtain cosmic ray exposure ages and to study the average cosmic ray flux on a 10 to the 7th power to 10 to the 8th power year time-scale was developed. The method is based on secondary neutron reactions on Te in troilite and the subsequent decay of 129I, the reaction product to stable 129 Xe. The first measurements of 129 I and 129 Xe in aliquot samples of a Cape York troilite sample are reported.
U, B, and V photometry is presented for CPD - 48 deg 1577, the newly discovered cataclysmic variable with the greatest known apparent brightness. The light curves are dominated by flickering but do suggest an orbital period of nearly 4 hr. Power spectra of 5 nights of U-band observations failed to reveal the presence of any periodic or quasi-periodic oscillations. Autocorrelation functions suggest that two time-scales exist in the flickering activity, one of 77 s and the other 500 s. The implications for a shot noise model of flickering are discussed.
The influence of subresolution clouds on estimates of synoptic-scale averages and the effect of synoptic-scale clouds on estimates of planetary scale interannual variability are discussed. It is shown that climatic noise is strongly dependent on the season and geographic region, so that the largest anomaly is not always the most significant. The role of advection in determining the time-scales and degrees of freedom of synoptic scale cloudiness is empirically demonstrated and described in terms of a simple model of stochastic 'cloud patches'.
A new technique, the Rayleigh-Lidar Sounding, has been developed recently to probe the Middle Atmosphere and has demonstrated its ability to provide density and temperature profiles in the height range 30 to 90 km. It has been limited until now to ground-based observations. The set of data, as it exists to-day, has been obtained from a unique midlatitude site. Even with this limiting factor, it is thought to be a useful complement to a global model, mainly because of its spatial and temporal resolutions, usually not available from global data. Such resolutions give an insight into the atmospheric variability as a function of height and time, for time-scale ranging from minutes to years. The process is briefly described. A description of the analysis and its results is given.
A technique of cosmic ray exposure age dating using cosmic ray produced I-129 and Xe-129 components is discussed. The live I-129 - Xe-129 method provides an ideal monitor for cosmic ray flux variations on the 10(7)y - 10(8)y time-scale. It is based on low-energy neutron reactions on Te, and these data, when coupled to those from other methods, may facilitate the detection of complex exposure histories.
Use of the residual circulation for stratospheric tracer transport has been compared to a fully three-dimensional calculation. The wind fields used in this study were obtained from a global, semispectral, primitive equation model, extending from 10 to 100 km in altitude. Comparisons were done with a passive tracer and an ozone-like substance over a two-month period corresponding to a Northern Hemisphere winter. It was found that the use of the residual circulation can lead to errors in the tracer concentrations of about a factor of 2. The error is made up of two components. One is fluctuating with a period of approximately one month and reflects directly the wave transience that occurs on that time-scale. The second part is increasing steadily over the integration period and results from an overestimate of the vertical transport by the residual circulation. Furthermore, the equatorward and upward mixing that occurs with transport by the three-dimensional circulation at low latitudes is not well reproduced when the residual circulation is used.
An overview is presented of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice studies using data from the Nimbus-5 ESMR and the Nimbus-7 SMMR passive microwave radiometers. Four years (1973-1976) of ESMR data for the Antarctic Ocean define the characteristics of the seasonal cycle including regional contrasts and interannual variations. Major advances include the discovery of the Weddell polynya and the presence of substantial areas of open water in the Antarctic winter pack ice. Regional differences in sea ice extent on time-scales of about a month are shown to be associated with variations in surface-wind fields. In the Arctic, the computation of sea ice concentration is complicated by the presence of multiyear ice, but the amount of multiyear ice becomes an important measurable quantity with dual-polarized, multifrequency passive microwave sensors. Analysis of SMMR data demonstrates its advantage for studying the spatial and temporal variability of the Arctic ice cover. Large observed interannual variations in the distribution of the multiyear pack ice and the presence of significant divergent areas in the central Arctic during winter contrast markedly with the classical view of the Arctic pack ice.
Earth based observers of Neptune found that the planet varies in brightness at various wavelengths in ways that suggest that changes occur in the planet's atmosphere on several different time-scales. Global inhomogeneities in high altitude haze distribution that are stable for several days permit measurements of the planet's rotation period (about 18 hours), but this stability sometimes breaks down, obscuring the diurnal lightcurve. In addition, there is an apparent long term variability of the brightness of Neptune in anticorrelation with the cycle of solar activity. This slow variability of low amplitude may be punctuated by outbursts of high altitude condensation of particles in the atmosphere, whose decay time is several months.
Fast magnetoacoustic waves can be ducted by plasma inhomogeneities such as the plasma sheet. As this ducting is dispersive an impulsive source will give rise to a well-defined, quasi-periodic wave packet with time-scales determined by the width of the inhomogeneity and characteristic speeds in the wave duct and surrounding medium. The duration of the wave packet depends upon the distance from the source. It is argued that an impulsive source in the plasma sheet at substorm onset will produce a wave packet near earth with characteristics similar to pi2 wave bursts and put this idea forward as a mechanism for the generation of pi2 pulsations.
The three-dimensional structure of the dominant modes of wintertime variability are examined, and the mode structures are determined by an EOF analysis of the coupled vertical mean and shear streamfunction fields for a wide range of time-scale classes. The time mean energy conversions are determined from a two-layer quasigeostrophic model. Lag-cross correlations between the dominant low-frequency modes tend to be small and/or symmetric about zero, the high frequency modes are found to show highly asymmetric sinusoidal cross correlation functions similar to traveling waves, and some intermediate and short-time scale modes exhibit correlations indicating an association with the decaying phases of blocking in the Pacific. It is suggested that the mean flow barotropic (baroclinic) instabilities are an important source of variance for some of the lowest (highest) fluctuations considered.
Study of rapid fluctuations in the emission of radiation from solar flares provides a promising approach for probing the magneto-plasma structure and plasma processes that are responsible for a flare. It is proposed that elementary flare bursts in X-ray and microwave emission may be attributed to fine structure of the coronal magnetic field, related to the aggregation of photospheric magnetic field into magnetic knots. Fluctuations that occur on a subsecond time-scale may be due to magnetic islands that develop in current sheets during magnetic reconnection. The impulsive phase may sometimes represent the superposition of a large number of the elementary energy-release processes responsible for elementary flare bursts. If so, the challenge of trying to explain the properties of the impulsive phase in terms of the properties of the elementary processes must be faced. Magnetic field configurations that might produce solar flares are divided into a number of categories, depending on: whether or not there is a filament; whether there is no current sheet, a closed current sheet, or an open current sheet; and whether the filament erupts into the corona, or is ejected completely from the Sun's atmosphere. Analysis of the properties of these possible configurations is compared with different types of flares, and to Bai's subdivision of gamma-ray/proton events.
The development of earth system models that will simulate the past and present and provide predictions of future conditions is essential now that human activities have the potential to induce changes in the planetary environment. Critical aspects of global change include its pervasiveness and ubiquity, its distribution in several distinct time-scale bands, and the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and the terrestrial and marine biospheres. A model of the earth system on the scale of decades to centuries, developed by the Earth System Science Committee (NASA) with the strategy of dividing by time scale rather than discipline, is presented and the requirements for observations to support the implementation of the model are reviewed.
The present calculation of giant planet evolution proceeds under the hypothesis that the solid cores formed by small particle accretion later attracted their gaseous envelopes from the solar nebula gravitationally. Evolutionary calculations are presented for the beginning of gaseous envelope formation around the core mass; the growth of core and envelope to a critical core mass; the derivation of high luminosity from the envelope mass due to gravitational contraction, and the termination of both core and envelope accretion on a time-scale of 5 Gyr.
A simple and readily-computed index for diagnostic and numerical weather prediction studies of heat waves and other persistent anomalies has been developed. The index takes into account the two important factors of intensity and persistence and it is highly correlated to the surface air temperature on a variety of time-scales. The utilization of this index for investigating the severe, summer 1980 U.S. heat wave and drought results in an instructive description of the spatial and temporal development of the phenomenon. An assessment of the skill of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) model in forecasting the initiation and breakdown of the heat wave in terms of the index is also illustrated.
The susceptibility of dirty ice surfaces to a water cold-trapping process in the Galilean satellites' local bright patches, in association with preferential removal from dark areas, is inferred on the basis of a consideration of the thermal sublimation of ice. A decade time-scale segregation of the surface into bright icy regions and dark ice-free lag deposit regions would be the main consequence of such a process. While ion sputtering and micrometeorite bombardment do not appear to be of sufficient magnitude for a prevention of the process on Callisto and Ganymede, sputtering on the trailing side of Europa may be able to prevent segregation.
The relation between cusp events and gamma-rays bursts is investigated. The optical depth of the universe to X-rays and gamma-rays of various energies is calculated and discussed. The cosmological evolution of cosmic strings is examined, and the energetics and time-scales related to the cusp phenomena are estimated. It is noted that it is possible to have energy bursts with a duration of a few seconds or less from cusps at z = 1000; the maximum amount of energy associated with such an event is limited to 10 to the 7th ergs/sq cm.
Within this decade, observations of total solar irradiance have become good enough to make it possible to study directly the solar luminosity variations on a wide range of time scales, up to several years. At the same time, there has been considerable improvement in understanding the classical indicators of solar activity, such as UV and visible chromospheric lines, soft X-rays, and radio fluxes. The observed variations include the effects of sunspots and plage solar-cycle effects, and signatures of global oscillations and convection. In addition, new characteristic time-scales (154 days and possibly 320 days) have been discovered. This review covers these developments and comments briefly on the subject of helioseismology.
The history and present status of observations of large-scale velocity fields in the solar atmosphere are reviewed. Observations of the torsional oscillation and of mean meridional circulation suggest a connection of large-scale dynamics with the solar cycle. Significant problems must be solved before Doppler observations can match the precision of tracer measurements, particularly allowing for the effects of changes in line-profile asymmetries and for scattered light. Coordinated observations would establish the reliability of Doppler techniques, but Doppler measurements with precision of order 1 m/s made in a proper spatial-temporal window appear necessary for the identification of sub-global velocity fields varying with time-scales less than that of the solar cycle.