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NASA NTRS2005

Handling Trajectory Uncertainties for Airborne Conflict Management

Airborne conflict management is an enabling capability for NASA's Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) concept. DAGTM has the goal of significantly increasing capacity within the National Airspace System, while maintaining or improving safety. Under DAG-TM, autonomous aircraft maintain separation from each other and from managed aircraft unequipped for autonomous flight. NASA Langley Research Center has developed the Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP), an onboard decision support system that provides airborne conflict management (ACM) and strategic flight planning support for autonomous aircraft pilots. The AOP performs conflict detection, prevention, and resolution from nearby traffic aircraft and area hazards. Traffic trajectory information is assumed to be provided by Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B). Reliable trajectory prediction is a key capability for providing effective ACM functions. Trajectory uncertainties due to environmental effects, differences in aircraft systems and performance, and unknown intent information lead to prediction errors that can adversely affect AOP performance. To accommodate these uncertainties, the AOP has been enhanced to create cross-track, vertical, and along-track buffers along the predicted trajectories of both ownship and traffic aircraft. These buffers will be structured based on prediction errors noted from previous simulations such as a recent Joint Experiment between NASA Ames and Langley Research Centers and from other outside studies. Currently defined ADS-B parameters related to navigation capability, trajectory type, and path conformance will be used to support the algorithms that generate the buffers.

Barhydt, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2006

Operational Concept for Flight Crews to Participate in Merging and Spacing of Aircraft

The predicted tripling of air traffic within the next 15 years is expected to cause significant aircraft delays and create a major financial burden for the airline industry unless the capacity of the National Airspace System can be increased. One approach to improve throughput and reduce delay is to develop new ground tools, airborne tools, and procedures to reduce the variance of aircraft delivery to the airport, thereby providing an increase in runway throughput capacity and a reduction in arrival aircraft delay. The first phase of the Merging and Spacing Concept employs a ground based tool used by Air Traffic Control that creates an arrival time to the runway threshold based on the aircraft s current position and speed, then makes minor adjustments to that schedule to accommodate runway throughput constraints such as weather and wake vortex separation criteria. The Merging and Spacing Concept also employs arrival routing that begins at an en route metering fix at altitude and continues to the runway threshold with defined lateral, vertical, and velocity criteria. This allows the desired spacing interval between aircraft at the runway to be translated back in time and space to the metering fix. The tool then calculates a specific speed for each aircraft to fly while enroute to the metering fix based on the adjusted land timing for that aircraft. This speed is data-linked to the crew who fly this speed, causing the aircraft to arrive at the metering fix with the assigned spacing interval behind the previous aircraft in the landing sequence. The second phase of the Merging and Spacing Concept increases the timing precision of the aircraft delivery to the runway threshold by having flight crews using an airborne system make minor speed changes during enroute, descent, and arrival phases of flight. These speed changes are based on broadcast aircraft state data to determine the difference between the actual and assigned time interval between the aircraft pair. The airborne software then calculates a speed adjustment to null that difference over the remaining flight trajectory. Follow-on phases still under development will expand the concept to all types of aircraft, arriving from any direction, merging at different fixes and altitudes, and to any airport. This paper describes the implementation phases of the Merging and Spacing Concept, and provides high-level results of research conducted to date.

Baxley, Brian T.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Three Dimensional Sector Design with Optimal Number of Sectors

The concept of dynamic sector design suggests a strategic approach to ease air traffic congestion, which is predicted to become a serious problem in the national airspace system by 2025. Considerable research has been conducted to address the sectorization problem. In previous work, an approach that combines the Voronoi diagrams, Genetic Algorithms (GA), and the iterative deepening algorithm was proposed. However, as originally formulated, the number of sectors used was predefined and only two-dimensional partitions were allowed, which constrained the method's ability to achieve good designs. The current work extends the earlier Voronoi-based method by treating the number of sectors as an additional decision variable, allowing 3D partitions, and developing more comprehensive costs.

Xue, Min↗

NASA NTRS2011

Trajectory-Based Takeoff Time Predictions Applied to Tactical Departure Scheduling: Concept Description, System Design, and Initial Observations

Current aircraft departure release times are based on manual estimates of aircraft takeoff times. Uncertainty in takeoff time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route streams and lead to lost throughput. However, technology exists to improve takeoff time estimates by using the aircraft surface trajectory predictions that enable air traffic control tower (ATCT) decision support tools. NASA s Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) is designed to use automated surface trajectory-based takeoff time estimates to improve en route tactical departure scheduling. This is accomplished by integrating an ATCT decision support tool with an en route tactical departure scheduling decision support tool. The PDRC concept and prototype software have been developed, and an initial test was completed at air traffic control facilities in Dallas/Fort Worth. This paper describes the PDRC operational concept, system design, and initial observations.

Engelland, Shawn A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Prototype Tool and Focus Group Evaluation for an Advanced Trajectory-Based Operations Concept

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

An Advanced Trajectory-Based Operations Prototype Tool and Focus Group Evaluation

Trajectory-based operations (TBO) is a key concept in the Next Generation Air Transportation System transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) that will increase the predictability and stability of traffic flows, support a common operational picture through the use of digital data sharing, facilitate more effective collaborative decision making between airspace users and air navigation service providers, and enable increased levels of integrated automation across the NAS. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been developing trajectory-based systems to improve the efficiency of the NAS during specific phases of flight and is now also exploring Advanced 4-Dimensional Trajectory (4DT) operational concepts that will integrate these technologies and incorporate new technology where needed to create both automation and procedures to support gate-to-gate TBO. A TBO Prototype simulation toolkit has been developed that demonstrates initial functionality that may reside in an Advanced 4DT TBO concept. Pilot and controller subject matter experts (SMEs) were brought to the Air Traffic Operations Laboratory at NASA Langley Research Center for discussions on an Advanced 4DT operational concept and were provided an interactive demonstration of the TBO Prototype using four example scenarios. The SMEs provided feedback on potential operational, technological, and procedural opportunities and concerns. After viewing the interactive demonstration scenarios, the SMEs felt the operational capabilities demonstrated would be useful for performing TBO while maintaining situation awareness and low mental workload. The TBO concept demonstrated produced defined routings around weather which resulted in a more organized, consistent flow of traffic where it was clear to both the controller and pilot what route the aircraft was to follow. In general, the controller SMEs felt that traffic flow management should be responsible for generating and negotiating the operational constraints demonstrated, in cooperation with the Air Traffic Control System Command Center, while air traffic control should be responsible for the implementation of those constraints. The SMEs also indicated that digital data communications would be very beneficial for TBO operations and would result in less workload due to reduced communications, would eliminate issues due to language barriers and frequency problems, and would make receiving, loading, accepting, and executing clearances easier, less ambiguous, and more expeditious. This paper describes an Advanced 4DT operational concept, the TBO Prototype, the demonstration scenarios and methods used, and the feedback obtained from the pilot and controller SMEs in this focus group evaluation.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Contrail Tracking and ARM Data Product Development

A contrail tracking system was developed to help in the assessment of the effect of commercial jet contrails on the Earth's radiative budget. The tracking system was built by combining meteorological data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) numerical weather prediction model with commercial air traffic flight track data and satellite imagery. A statistical contrail-forecasting model was created a combination of surface-based contrail observations and numerical weather analyses and forecasts. This model allows predictions of widespread contrail occurrences for contrail research on either a real-time basis or for long-term time scales. Satellite-derived cirrus cloud properties in polluted and unpolluted regions were compared to determine the impact of air traffic on cirrus.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Advanced air traffic management

Air traffic worldwide continues to grow, and this growth is predicted to continue in the coming decades. Air traffic management (ATM) systems in several parts of the world have now reached their operating limits. The external symptoms of this are increases in the number of delays experienced by the system, and a rise in the frequency of near-misses. If the ATM system fails to develop to provide more capacity, then the result will be a decrease in safety levels, and increasing delays, or a limit on the number of permitted aircraft operations.

Wangermann, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Prediction of Weather Related Center Delays

This paper presents results of an initial study of relations between national delay, center level delays and weather. The results presented in the paper indicate: (a) the methodology used for estimating the delay at the national level can be extended to estimate delays caused by a center and delays experienced by a center, (b)delays caused by a center can be predicted using that center's Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI) whereas delays experienced by a center are best predicted using WITI of that center and that of a few prominent centers (c) there is differential impact of weather of different centers on center delays.

Deepak, Kulkarni↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Alerting and Guidance Performance of a UAS Detect-And-Avoid System

A key challenge to the routine, safe operation of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is the development of detect-and-avoid (DAA) systems to aid the UAS pilot in remaining "well clear" of nearby aircraft. The goal of this study is to investigate the effect of alerting criteria and pilot response delay on the safety and performance of UAS DAA systems in the context of routine civil UAS operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). A NAS-wide fast-time simulation study was conducted to assess UAS DAA system performance with a large number of encounters and a broad set of DAA alerting and guidance system parameters. Three attributes of the DAA system were controlled as independent variables in the study to conduct trade-off analyses: UAS trajectory prediction method (dead-reckoning vs. intent-based), alerting time threshold (related to predicted time to LoWC), and alerting distance threshold (related to predicted Horizontal Miss Distance, or HMD). A set of metrics, such as the percentage of true positive, false positive, and missed alerts, based on signal detection theory and analysis methods utilizing the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were proposed to evaluate the safety and performance of DAA alerting and guidance systems and aid development of DAA system performance standards. The effect of pilot response delay on the performance of DAA systems was evaluated using a DAA alerting and guidance model and a pilot model developed to support this study. A total of 18 fast-time simulations were conducted with nine different DAA alerting threshold settings and two different trajectory prediction methods, using recorded radar traffic from current Visual Flight Rules (VFR) operations, and supplemented with DAA-equipped UAS traffic based on mission profiles modeling future UAS operations. Results indicate DAA alerting distance threshold has a greater effect on DAA system performance than DAA alerting time threshold or ownship trajectory prediction method. Further analysis on the alert lead time (time in advance of predicted loss of well clear at which a DAA alert is first issued) indicated a strong positive correlation between alert lead time and DAA system performance (i.e. the ability of the UAS pilot to maneuver the unmanned aircraft to remain well clear). While bigger distance thresholds had beneficial effects on alert lead time and missed alert rate, it also generated a higher rate of false alerts. In the design and development of DAA alerting and guidance systems, therefore, the positive and negative effects of false alerts and missed alerts should be carefully considered to achieve acceptable alerting system performance by balancing false and missed alerts. The results and methodology presented in this study are expected to help stakeholders, policymakers and standards committees define the appropriate setting of DAA system parameter thresholds for UAS that ensure safety while minimizing operational impacts to the NAS and equipage requirements for its users before DAA operational performance standards can be finalized.

UAS Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) System↗

NASA NTRS1996

Human-Centered Technologies and Procedures for Future Air Traffic Management: A Preliminary Overview of 1996 Studies and Results

In this project, we have been exploring the use of a general methodology to predict the impact of future Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts and technologies. In applying this methodology, our emphasis has been on the importance of modeling coordination and cooperation among the multiple agents within this system, and on understanding how the interactions among these agents will be influenced as new roles, responsibilities, procedures and technologies are introduced. To accomplish this, we have been collecting data on performance under the current air traffic management system, trying to identify critical problem areas and looking for exemplars suggestive of general approaches for solving such problems. Based on the results of these field studies, we have developed a set of scenarios centered around potential future system designs, and have conducted studies using these scenarios involving a total 40 controllers, dispatchers, pilots and traffic managers. The purpose of this report is to provide NASA with an early summary of the major recommendations that have resulted from our research under the AATT Program thus far. Recommendations 1-3 deal with general approaches that our findings suggest should be incorporated in future AATT Program activities, while Recommendations 4-11 identify some specific topics and technologies that merit research and development activities. Detailed technical reports containing supporting data, as well as the results of our still ongoing analyses, will be provided at a later date. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. Section 1 briefly describes the general design philosophy supported by our empirical studies. Section 2 presents the research methods we have used for identifying requirements for future system designs and for evaluating alternative design solutions. Section 3 discusses preliminary results from an initial set of investigations that we have conducted using these research methods. Section 4 then provides an overall summary. An outline of the rest of this preliminary project summary is provided on the following page.

Smith, Philip↗

NASA NTRS2018

Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) Technology Description Document (TDD)

This Technology Description Document (TDD) provides an overview of the technology for the Phase 1 Baseline Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) prototype system of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project, to be demonstrated beginning in 2017 at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT). Development, integration, and field demonstration of relevant technologies of the IADS system directly address recommendations made by the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Integration Working Group (NIWG) on Surface and Data Sharing and the Surface Collaborative Decision Making (Surface CDM) concept of operations developed jointly by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and aviation industry partners. NASA is developing the IADS traffic management system under the ATD-2 project in coordination with the FAA, flight operators, CLT airport, and the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA). The primary goal of ATD-2 is to improve the predictability and operational efficiency of the air traffic system in metroplex environments, through the enhancement, development, and integration of the nation's most advanced and sophisticated arrival, departure, and surface prediction, scheduling, and management systems. The ATD-2 project is a 5-year research activity beginning in 2015 and extending through 2020. The Phase 1 Baseline IADS capability resulting from the ATD-2 research will be demonstrated at the CLT airport beginning in 2017. Phase 1 will provide the initial demonstration of the integrated system with strategic and tactical scheduling, tactical departure scheduling to an en route meter point, and an early implementation prototype of a Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) Electronic Flight Data (EFD) system. The strategic surface scheduling element of the capability is consistent with the Surface CDM Concept of Operations published in 2014 by the FAA Surface Operations Directorate.

integrated arrival↗

NASA NTRS2019

Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) Phase 2 Technology Description Document (TDD)

This Technology Description Document (TDD) provides an overview of the technology for the Phase 1 Baseline and Phase 2 Fused demonstrations of the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) prototype system of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project, which has been demonstrated since October of 2017 at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT). Development, integration, and field demonstration of relevant technologies of the IADS system directly address recommendations made by the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Integration Working Group (NIWG) on Surface and Data Sharing and the Surface Collaborative Decision Making (Surface CDM) concept of operations developed jointly by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and aviation industry partners. NASA has been developing the IADS traffic management system under the ATD-2 project in coordination with the FAA, flight operators, CLT airport operators, and the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA). The primary goal of ATD-2 is to improve the predictability and operational efficiency of the air traffic system in metroplex environments, through the enhancement, development, and integration of the nation’s most advanced and sophisticated arrival, departure, and surface prediction, scheduling, and management systems. The ATD-2 project is a 5-year research activity beginning in 2015 and extending through 2020. The Phase 1 Baseline IADS capability resulting from the ATD-2 research has been demonstrated at the CLT airport since the beginning of October 2017. Phase 1 provided data exchange and integration with the initial demonstration of the integrated system of strategic and tactical scheduling, collaborative tactical surface metering, tactical departure scheduling to an en route meter point and overhead stream insertion, initial integration of a TFDM SWIM prototype feed, and an early implementation prototype of a Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) Electronic Flight Data (EFD) system. The strategic surface scheduling element of the capability is consistent with the Surface CDM Concept of Operations published in 2014 by the FAA Surface Operations Directorate.1 The Phase 2 Fused IADS system provided substantial updates to baseline IADS Demonstration capability. Improvements were made to the IADS modeler; tactical surface scheduling, and metering; tactical departure scheduling for overhead stream insertion; Electronic Flight Data (EFD) and the integration with the FAA Advanced Electronic Flight Strip (AEFS); RTC/RMTC, and departure trajectories. New capabilities included a TFDM SWIM prototype feed and delivery of IADS data via the TFDM Terminal Publication (TTP) service of the FAA’s SWIM system; strategic surface scheduling and metering as well as fusion with tactical surface metering; integration and ingestion of data from TTP-connected Mobile App and texting industry for General Aviation (GA) flights; and expansion of airspace deployments to include adjacent Center automation, in particular interface with the Atlanta Center (ZTL) arrival metering TBFM system to evaluate pre-scheduling of flights. Improvements in Data Analysis and System Health (DASH) monitoring and updates were completed as well.

Talebi, Ehsan↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Comparison of Center/TRACON Automation System and Airline Time of Arrival Predictions

Benefits from information sharing between an air traffic service provider and a major air carrier are evaluated. Aircraft arrival time schedules generated by the NASA/FAA Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) were provided to the American Airlines System Operations Control Center in Fort Worth, Texas, during a field trial of a specialized CTAS display. A statistical analysis indicates that the CTAS schedules, based on aircraft trajectories predicted from real-time radar and weather data, are substantially more accurate than the traditional airline arrival time estimates, constructed from flight plans and en route crew updates. The improvement offered by CTAS is especially advantageous during periods of heavy traffic and substantial terminal area delay, allowing the airline to avoid large predictive errors with serious impact on the efficiency and profitability of flight operations.

Heere, Karen R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Improving Separation Assurance Stability Through Trajectory Flexibility Preservation

New information and automation technologies are enabling the distribution of tasks and decisions from the service providers to the users of the air traffic system, with potential capacity and cost benefits. This distribution of tasks and decisions raises the concern that independent user actions will decrease the predictability and increase the complexity of the traffic system, hence inhibiting and possibly reversing any potential benefits. One such concern is the adverse impact of uncoordinated actions by individual aircraft on the stability of separation assurance. For example, individual aircraft performing self-separation may resolve predicted losses of separation or conflicts with some traffic, only to result in secondary conflicts with other traffic or with the same traffic later in time. In answer to this concern, this paper proposes metrics for preserving user trajectory flexibility to be used in self-separation along with other objectives. The hypothesis is that preserving trajectory flexibility will naturally reduce the creation of secondary conflicts by bringing about implicit coordination between aircraft. The impact of using these metrics on improving self-separation stability is investigated by measuring the impact on secondary conflicts. The scenarios analyzed include aircraft in en route airspace with each aircraft meeting a required time of arrival in a twenty minute time horizon while maintaining separation from the surrounding traffic and using trajectory flexibility metrics to mitigate the risk of secondary conflicts. Preliminary experiments showed promising results in that the trajectory flexibility preservation reduced the potential for secondary conflicts.

Idris, Husni↗

NASA NTRS1997

Design and Operational Evaluation of the Traffic Management Advisor at the Ft. Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center

NASA and the FAA have designed and developed and an automation tool known as the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). The system was operationally evaluated at the Ft. Worth Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). The TMA is a time-based strategic planning tool that provides Traffic Management Coordinators and En Route Air Traffic Controllers the ability to efficiently optimize the capacity of a demand impacted airport. The TMA consists of trajectory prediction, constraint-based runway scheduling, traffic flow visualization and controllers advisories. The TMA was used and operationally evaluated for forty-one rush traffic periods during a one month period in the Summer of 1996. The evaluations included all shifts of air traffic operations as well as periods of inclement weather. Performance data was collected for engineering and human factor analysis and compared with similar operations without the TMA. The engineering data indicates that the operations with the TMA show a one to two minute per aircraft delay reduction during rush periods. The human factor data indicate a perceived reduction in en route controller workload as well as an increase in job satisfaction. Upon completion of the evaluation, the TMA has become part of the normal operations at the Ft. Worth ARTCC.

Swenson, Harry N.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Route Optimization for Offloading Congested Meter Fixes

The Optimized Route Capability (ORC) concept proposed by the FAA facilitates traffic managers to identify and resolve arrival flight delays caused by bottlenecks formed at arrival meter fixes when there exists imbalance between arrival fixes and runways. ORC makes use of the prediction capability of existing automation tools, monitors the traffic delays based on these predictions, and searches the best reroutes upstream of the meter fixes based on the predictions and estimated arrival schedules when delays are over a predefined threshold. Initial implementation and evaluation of the ORC concept considered only reroutes available at the time arrival congestion was first predicted. This work extends previous work by introducing an additional dimension in reroute options such that ORC can find the best time to reroute and overcome the 'firstcome- first-reroute' phenomenon. To deal with the enlarged reroute solution space, a genetic algorithm was developed to solve this problem. Experiments were conducted using the same traffic scenario used in previous work, when an arrival rush was created for one of the four arrival meter fixes at George Bush Intercontinental Houston Airport. Results showed the new approach further improved delay savings. The suggested route changes from the new approach were on average 30 minutes later than those using other approaches, and fewer numbers of reroutes were required. Fewer numbers of reroutes reduce operational complexity and later reroutes help decision makers deal with uncertain situations.

Optimized Route Capability↗

NASA NTRS2011

Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗