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DOE OSTI2025

Nonadiabatic Force Matching for Alchemical Free-Energy Estimation

We propose a method to compute free-energy differences from nonadiabatic alchemical transformations by using flow-based generative models. The method, nonadiabatic force matching, hinges on estimating the dissipation along an alchemical switching process in terms of a nonadiabatic force field that can be learned through stochastic flow matching. The learned field can be used in conjunction with short-time trajectory data to evaluate upper and lower bounds on the alchemical free energy that variationally converge to the exact value if the field is optimal. Applying the method to evaluate the alchemical free energy of atomistic models shows that it can substantially reduce the simulation cost of a free-energy estimate at a negligible loss of accuracy when compared with thermodynamic integration.

Computational chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Non-Terrestrial Hybrid RF/FSO Links With Reinforcement Learning: Navigating Through Clouds

In the pursuit of ubiquitous broadband connectivity, there has been a significant shift towards the vertical expansion of communication networks into space, particularly through the exploitation of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations, which are favored for their relatively low latency. However, this approach faces many challenges that need to be addressed, including atmospheric turbulence, high path loss, and dynamic cloud formations. High-altitude pseudo-satellites (HAPS) have emerged as promising relaying layers between LEO satellites and ground stations, enhancing coverage, latency, and direct terrestrial user connectivity. While radio frequency (RF) bands suffer from congestion and limited bandwidth, free space optical (FSO) communications offer higher data rates, but are susceptible to misalignment and weather-induced signal degradation. To address these challenges, a hybrid RF/FSO approach has been proposed to take advantage of both technologies by dynamic switching between RF and FSO based on propagation channel conditions. This paper introduces a reinforcement learning-based algorithm designed to optimize the trajectory of HAPS, maneuver around cloudy areas, and seamlessly switch between the RF and FSO communication modes to maximize the achievable capacity. The proposed approach aims to maximize system performance by intelligently adapting to environmental conditions and offering a promising solution for next-generation space communication networks.

actor-critic algorithm↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of streaked images of x-ray self-emission in laser-driven spherical implosions

Imaging of x-ray self-emission provides a powerful in situ measurement of the spatial and temporal evolution of high-energy-density plasmas. However, interpretation of these measurements requires detailed understanding of the data-generating process. This work presents a case study in the interpretation of x-ray self-emission data for the specific application of streaked one-dimensional slit imaging of spherical laser-driven implosions. A comprehensive generative model of the streaked slit-imaging diagnostic is developed including detailed treatments of the radiation transfer, photometrics, and photostatistics associated with the measurement. The model is used to generate realistic synthetic streaked images and to analyze experimental streaked images to extract important physical quantities of interest. An example analysis of streaked images from implosion experiments on the OMEGA laser is presented, where the model developed in this work is used to constrain the trajectory and peak velocity of the implosion using Bayesian inference.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2025

Entanglement engineering of optomechanical systems by reinforcement learning

Entanglement is fundamental to quantum information science and technology, yet controlling and manipulating entanglement—so-called entanglement engineering—for arbitrary quantum systems remains a formidable challenge. There are two difficulties: the fragility of quantum entanglement and its experimental characterization. We develop a model-free deep reinforcement-learning (RL) approach to entanglement engineering, in which feedback control together with weak continuous measurement and partial state observation is exploited to generate and maintain desired entanglement. We employ quantum optomechanical systems with linear or nonlinear photon–phonon interactions to demonstrate the workings of our machine-learning-based entanglement engineering protocol. In particular, the RL agent sequentially interacts with one or multiple parallel quantum optomechanical environments, collects trajectories, and updates the policy to maximize the accumulated reward to create and stabilize quantum entanglement over an arbitrary amount of time. The machine-learning-based model-free control principle is applicable to the entanglement engineering of experimental quantum systems in general.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bolide Infrasound Signal Morphology and Yield Estimates: A Case Study of Two Events Detected by a Dense Acoustic Sensor Network

Two bolides (2016 June 2 and 2019 April 4) were detected at multiple regional infrasound stations, with many of the locations receiving multiple detections. Analysis of the received signals was used to estimate the yield, location, and trajectory, as well as the type of shock that produced the received signal. The results from the infrasound analysis were compared with ground-truth information that was collected through other sensing modalities. This multimodal framework offers an expanded perspective on the processes governing bolide shock generation and propagation. The majority of signal features showed reasonable agreement between the infrasound-based interpretation and the other observational modalities, though the yield estimate from the 2019 bolide was significantly lower using the infrasound detections. There was also evidence suggesting that one of the detections was from a cylindrical shock that was initially propagating upward, which is unusual though not impossible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effect of a Fine-Scale Layered Structure of the Atmosphere on Infrasound Signals from Fragmenting Meteoroids

We investigate the influence of a fine-scale (FS) layered structure in the atmosphere on the propagation of infrasound signals generated by fragmenting meteoroids. Using a pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) approach, we model broadband acoustic signals from point sources at altitudes of 35–100 km. The presence of FS fluctuations in the stratosphere (37–45 km) and the lower thermosphere (100–120 km) modifies ray trajectories, causing multiple arrivals and prolonged signal durations at ground stations. In particular, meteoroids fragmenting at 80–100 km can produce two distinct thermospheric arrivals beyond 150 km range, while meteoroids descending to 50 km or below yield weak, long-lived arrivals within the acoustic shadow zone via antiguiding propagation and diffraction. Comparison with observed infrasound data confirms that FS-layered inhomogeneities can account for multi-arrival “N-waves,” broadening potential interpretations of meteoroid signals. The results also apply to other atmospheric-entry objects, such as sample return capsules, emphasizing how FS structure impacts shock wave propagation. In conclusion, our findings advance understanding of wavefield evolution in a layered atmosphere and have broad relevance for global infrasound monitoring of diverse phenomena (e.g., re-entry capsules, rocket launches, and large-scale explosions).

Aeroacoustics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Asymptotic scaling laws for the stagnation conditions of Z-pinch implosions

Implosions of magnetically driven annular shells (Z pinches) are studied in the laboratory to produce high-energy-density plasmas. Such plasmas have a wide-range of applications including x-ray generation, controlled thermonuclear fusion, and astrophysics studies. In this work, we theoretically investigate the in-flight dynamics of a magnetically driven, imploding cylindrical shell that stagnates onto itself upon collision on axis. The converging flow of the Z-pinch is analyzed by considering the implosion trajectory in the (A, M) parametric plane, where A is the in-flight aspect ratio and M is the implosion Mach number. For an ideal implosion in the absence of instabilities and in the limit of A ≫ 1, we derive asymptotic scaling laws for hydrodynamic quantities evaluated at stagnation (e.g., density, temperature, and pressure) and for performance metrics (e.g., soft x-ray emission, K-shell x-ray emission, and neutron yield) as functions of target-design parameters.

Ruiz, D. E. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basic Physical Processes Involving Dust in Fusion Plasmas

This report presents the main outcomes of our research focused on understanding the behavior and effects of dust particles in fusion plasmas, particularly in the edge regions of tokamaks and stellarators. We conducted computer modeling studies of burst injections of carbon and tungsten dust particles in DIII-D like divertor plasmas. The studies investigated effects of transient influx of the low- and high-Z material plasma contaminants in form of dust on the edge plasma dynamics in a modern mid-size tokamak. We also performed theoretical and computational studies of the forces acting on non-spherical dust grains in magnetized and nonmagnetized plasmas. In addition, we cooperated with General Atomics slag management group on development of DIII-D dust injection experiments to measure trajectories of dust grains in the divertor plasma and compare them with DUSTT code predictions for validation of the dust modeling capabilities. We collaborated with JET experimentalists on evaluation of radiative losses induced by injection of mixed neon-deuterium ice pellets for disruption and run-away electron generation mitigation during thermal and current quench phases. We also cooperated with experimentalists at LHD fusion device (Japan) on modeling support of experiments on injection of boron granules in fusion plasma discharges to assess their dynamics and effectiveness for in situ dynamic wall conditioning.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Simulation of Cascading Outages Using an Energy Function-Embedded Quasi-Steady-State Model

Here, this paper proposed an energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model for efficient simulation of cascading outages on a power grid while addressing transient stability concerns. Compared to quasi-steady-state models, the proposed model incorporates short-term dynamic simulation and an energy function method to efficiently evaluate the transient stability of a power grid together with outage propagation without transient stability simulation. Cascading outage simulation using the proposed model conducts three steps for each disturbance such as a line outage. First, it performs time-domain simulation for a short term to obtain a post-disturbance trajectory. Second, along the trajectory, the system state with the local maximum potential energy is found and used as the initial point to search for a relevant unstable equilibrium by Newton's method. Third, the transient energy margin is estimated based on this unstable equilibrium to predict an out-of-step condition with generators. The proposed energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model is tested in terms of its accuracy and time performance on an NPCC 140-bus power system and compared to a quasi-steady-state model embedding transient stability simulation.

Guo, Zhenping [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (↗

DOE OSTI2024

On-demand nanoengineering of in-plane ferroelectric topologies

Hierarchical assemblies of ferroelectric nanodomains, so-called super-domains, can exhibit exotic morphologies that lead to distinct behaviours. Controlling these super-domains reliably is critical for realizing states with desired functional properties. Here we reveal the super-switching mechanism by using a biased atomic force microscopy tip, that is, the switching of the in-plane super-domains, of a model ferroelectric Pb 0.6 Sr 0.4 TiO 3 . We demonstrate that the writing process is dominated by a super-domain nucleation and stabilization process. A complex scanning-probe trajectory enables on-demand formation of intricate centre-divergent, centre-convergent and flux-closure polar structures. Correlative piezoresponse force microscopy and optical spectroscopy confirm the topological nature and tunability of the emergent structures. The precise and versatile nanolithography in a ferroic material and the stability of the generated structures, also validated by phase-field modelling, suggests potential for reliable multi-state nanodevice architectures and, thereby, an alternative route for the creation of tunable topological structures for applications in neuromorphic circuits.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multitask graph neural networks for elastoplastic response prediction in dual-phase polycrystals

Microstructure-sensitive prediction of elastoplastic response remains a recurring bottleneck in multiscale damage and fatigue modeling, where large ensembles of statistically distinct polycrystals are required to quantify variability and extreme-value behavior. In this work, we develop a multitask graph neural network (GNN) surrogate that maps dual-phase ferrite–martensite polycrystal microstructures to Statistical Volume Element (SVE)-level elastoplastic Quantities of Interest (QoIs). Each SVE is represented as a grain-adjacency graph, with node features encoding phase, geometry, and crystallographic orientation, and edge features encoding relative misorientation. A message-passing graph convolution generates node embeddings, which are pooled into a graph representation and passed to a multitask regression head that jointly predicts 10 scalar QoIs and vector-valued stress–strain responses in orthogonal loading directions across multiple martensite volume fractions and SVE sizes. Results show high accuracy for scalar QoIs and strong agreement for full stress–strain trajectories, with population envelopes reproducing both median behavior and finite-SVE variability across compositions and partition scales. A unified model trained on pooled volume-fraction data preserves most within-regime accuracy relative to regime-specific models while also capturing the broader cross-regime variation reflected in the pooled test set. Distributional comparisons further demonstrate that the surrogate preserves heterogeneity under SVE partitioning, enabling statistically consistent block-wise random-field construction for mesoscale analyses. Overall, the proposed grain-graph surrogate provides a practical pathway to accelerate ensemble-based studies of SVE-level constitutive variability in dual-phase polycrystals.

Crystal plasticity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Policy support and technology development trajectory for renewable natural gas in the U.S.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a clean alternative to fossil natural gas, which can be used as transportation fuel, among other applications. This study projects the development trajectory of RNG and evaluates its impacts on the future U.S. transportation market using a hybrid computable general equilibrium model. This analysis considers various factors and uncertainties affecting RNG production, such as technology development, market conditions, competition with other advanced biofuels, and national and state policies. In 2050, RNG production will grow to 2.7 billion gallons (10 billion liters), mostly from swine manure, under current policy provisions. This will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 58.56 million metric tonne of CO 2e in 2050. Analysis of different technology cases finds RNG from animal manure to be predominant, while RNG from corn stover and cellulosic ethanol are less competitive. Furthermore, a high mandatory target of 1 billion gallons will drive RNG production higher by 8–18 %, while an extended 2 nd -generation biofuel production tax credit will mostly increase cellulosic ethanol production. The model also finds RNG production being affected by uncertainties in market conditions, such as GDP growth, fossil fuel prices, and oil and gas supply.

Biomethane↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Real2Sim Digital Twin Pipeline for Photorealistic Robot Simulation: Evaluating VLA Policy Deployment on a Bimanual Mobile Robot

Digital twins that are automatically constructed from robot sensor data offer a promising pathway for scalable Real2Sim and Sim2Real transfer. However, it remains an open question whether photorealistic reconstruction alone is sufficient to support reliable deployment of vision-language-action (VLA) policies. We present a generative-AI-assisted Real2Sim pipeline that generates simulation-ready digital twins from real-world RGB observations with minimal manual intervention. The pipeline uses prompted segmentation to isolate scene components and a generative 3D model to directly produce simulation assets, eliminating the need for traditional multi-view reconstruction or manual 3D modeling.\r\nTo evaluate simulation fidelity, we deploy and compare policies from two VLA models in both the real robot and the reconstructed\r\nsimulation under identical tasks and initial conditions. We compare joint-level action trajectories and analyze how divergence evolves over time in closed-loop execution. Although the reconstructed environments are visually accurate, we observe increasing trajectory divergence during closedloop operation. These results indicate that photorealistic reconstruction alone is insufficient to preserve closed-loop control behavior\r\nin VLA policies, particularly in contact-rich manipulation settings where small perceptual errors compound over time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Second-generation downscaled earth system model data using generative machine learning

The second-generation Sup3rCC dataset provides high-resolution meteorological data generated through the downscaling of multiple earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This downscaling is performed through application of a generative machine learning approach called Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r). This dataset builds on the first-generation Sup3rCC data by applying improved bias correction methods and adding downscaled precipitation to the output variables. As with the first Sup3rCC version, the data still include temperature, wind speed and direction at multiple heights, pressure, three components of downwelling solar radiation, and relative humidity—all at 4-kilometer (km) hourly resolution over the contiguous United States. This is a 25x spatial enhancement and 24x temporal enhancement of the source 100-km daily-average ESM data. This extension of the Sup3rCC dataset includes data from six ESMs from two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) totaling 400 years of data with multiple future projections of changing meteorological conditions. The scenario selection was based on a structured evaluation of historical ESM skill and comprehensive representation of possible trajectories of future climate change in temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar irradiance, and near-surface wind speeds. The inclusion of multiple future projections is intended to enable users to assess key drivers of un 36 certainty and variability. All data are double-bias corrected, resulting in a product that can be used out-of-the-box for energy system analysis with minimal historical bias. The potential applications of Sup3rCC data extend to various topics in renewable energy resource assessment, energy systems modeling, and grid resilience studies. High-resolution future meteorological projections are critical for evaluating the effects of changing meteorological conditions on renewable energy generation, energy demand, and for optimizing energy storage and grid infrastructure. The 4-km hourly resolution of the downscaled data enables understanding of spatial and temporal variability at the scales necessary for energy system operational planning. In addition, the dataset can support risk assessments by providing detailed information on possible future extreme weather events and long-term meteorological variability at scales relevant to energy infrastructure. By offering an enhanced representation of possible future meteorological conditions, the second-generation Sup3rCC dataset enables more precise modeling of energy resilience and adaptation strategies in response to changing meteorological conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

In Silico Human Mobility Data Science: Leveraging Massive Simulated Mobility Data (Vision Paper)

Human mobility data science using trajectories or check-ins of individuals has many applications. Recently, we have seen a plethora of research efforts that tackle these applications. However, research progress in this field is limited by a lack of large and representative datasets. The largest and most commonly used dataset of individual human trajectories captures fewer than 200 individuals, while datasets of individual human check-ins capture fewer than 100 check-ins per city per day. Thus, it is not clear if findings from the human mobility data science community would generalize to large populations. Since obtaining massive, representative, and individual-level human mobility data is hard to come by due to privacy considerations, the vision of this work is to embrace the use of data generated by large-scale socially realistic microsimulations. Informed by both real data and leveraging social and behavioral theories, massive spatially explicit microsimulations may allow us to simulate entire megacities at the person level. The simulated worlds, which do not capture any identifiable personal information, allow us to perform “in silico” experiments using the simulated world as a sandbox in which we have perfect information and perfect control without jeopardizing the privacy of any actual individual. In silico experiments have become commonplace in other scientific domains such as chemistry and biology, permitting experiments that foster the understanding of concepts without any harm to individuals. This work describes challenges and opportunities for leveraging massive and realistic simulated alternate worlds for in silico human mobility data science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Actinide signatures in low electron fraction kilonova ejecta

ABSTRACT Neutron star (NS) mergers are known to produce heavy elements through rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis. Actinides are expected to be created solely by the r-process in the most neutron-rich environments. Confirming if NS mergers provide the requisite conditions for actinide creation is therefore central to determining their origin in the Universe. Actinide signatures in kilonova (KN) spectra may yield an answer, provided adequate models are available in order to interpret observational data. In this study, we investigate actinide signatures in neutron-rich merger ejecta. We use three ejecta models with different compositions and radioactive power, generated by nucleosynthesis calculations using the same initial electron fraction ($Y_e = 0.15$) but with different nuclear physics inputs and thermodynamic expansion history. These are evolved from 10 to 100 d after merger using the sumo non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) radiative transfer code. We highlight how uncertainties in nuclear properties, as well as choices in thermodynamic trajectory, may yield entirely different outputs for equal values of $Y_e$. We consider an actinide-free model and two actinide-rich models, and find that the emergent spectra and light-curve evolution are significantly different depending on the amount of actinides present, and the overall decay properties of the models. We also present potential key actinide spectral signatures, of which doubly ionized $_{89}$Ac and $_{90}$Th may be particularly interesting as spectral indicators of actinide presence in KN ejecta.

Pognan, Quentin (ORCID:0000000152550782)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tunneling away the relic neutrino asymmetry

The Earth acts as a matter potential for relic neutrinos which modifies their index of refraction from vacuum by δ ∼ 10 − 8 . It has been argued that the refractive effects from this potential should lead to a large O ( δ ) neutrino-antineutrino asymmetry at the surface of the Earth. This result was computed by treating the Earth as flat. In this work, we revisit this calculation in the context of a perfectly spherical Earth. We demonstrate, both numerically and through analytic arguments, that the flat-Earth result is only recovered under the condition δ 3 / 2 k R ≫ 1 , where k is the typical momentum of the relic neutrinos and R is the radius of the Earth. This condition is required to prevent antineutrinos from tunneling into classically inaccessible trajectories below the Earth’s surface and washing away the large asymmetry. As the physical parameters of the Earth do not satisfy this condition, we find that the asymmetry at the surface should only be O ( δ ) . While the asphericity of the Earth may serve as a loophole to our conclusions, we argue that it is still difficult to generate a large asymmetry even in the presence of local terrain. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗