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Portfolios in Stochastic Local Search: Efficiently Computing Most Probable Explanations in Bayesian Networks
Portfolio methods support the combination of different algorithms and heuristics, including stochastic local search (SLS) heuristics, and have been identified as a promising approach to solve computationally hard problems. While successful in experiments, theoretical foundations and analytical results for portfolio-based SLS heuristics are less developed. This article aims to improve the understanding of the role of portfolios of heuristics in SLS. We emphasize the problem of computing most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). Algorithmically, we discuss a portfolio-based SLS algorithm for MPE computation, Stochastic Greedy Search (SGS). SGS supports the integration of different initialization operators (or initialization heuristics) and different search operators (greedy and noisy heuristics), thereby enabling new analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we introduce a novel Markov chain model tailored to portfolio-based SLS algorithms including SGS, thereby enabling us to analytically form expected hitting time results that explain empirical run time results. For a specific BN, we show the benefit of using a homogenous initialization portfolio. To further illustrate the portfolio approach, we consider novel additive search heuristics for handling determinism in the form of zero entries in conditional probability tables in BNs. Our additive approach adds rather than multiplies probabilities when computing the utility of an explanation. We motivate the additive measure by studying the dramatic impact of zero entries in conditional probability tables on the number of zero-probability explanations, which again complicates the search process. We consider the relationship between MAXSAT and MPE, and show that additive utility (or gain) is a generalization, to the probabilistic setting, of MAXSAT utility (or gain) used in the celebrated GSAT and WalkSAT algorithms and their descendants. Utilizing our Markov chain framework, we show that expected hitting time is a rational function - i.e. a ratio of two polynomials - of the probability of applying an additive search operator. Experimentally, we report on synthetically generated BNs as well as BNs from applications, and compare SGSs performance to that of Hugin, which performs BN inference by compilation to and propagation in clique trees. On synthetic networks, SGS speeds up computation by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to Hugin. In application networks, our approach is highly competitive in Bayesian networks with a high degree of determinism. In addition to showing that stochastic local search can be competitive with clique tree clustering, our empirical results provide an improved understanding of the circumstances under which portfolio-based SLS outperforms clique tree clustering and vice versa.
Increasing atmospheric dryness reduces boreal forest tree growth
Rising atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) associated with climate change affects boreal forest growth via stomatal closure and soil dryness. However, the relationship between VPD and forest growth depends on the climatic context. Here we assess Canadian boreal forest responses to VPD changes from 1951-2018 using a well-replicated tree-growth increment network with approximately 5,000 species-site combinations. Of the 3,559 successful growth models, we observed a relationship between growth and concurrent summer VPD in one-third of the species-site combinations, and between growth and prior summer VPD in almost half of those combinations. The relationship between previous year VPD and current year growth was almost exclusively negative, while current year VPD also tended to reduce growth. Tree species, age, annual temperature, and soil moisture primarily determined tree VPD responses. Younger trees and species like white spruce and Douglas fir exhibited higher VPD sensitivity, as did areas with high annual temperature and low soil moisture. Since 1951, summer VPD increases in Canada have paralleled tree growth decreases, particularly in spruce species. Accelerating atmospheric dryness in the decades ahead will impair carbon storage and societal-economic services.
Early Fault Detection in Particle Accelerator Power Electronics Using Ensemble Learning
Early fault detection and fault prognosis are crucial to ensure efficient and safe operations of complex engineering systems such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and its power electronics (high voltage converter modulators). Following an advanced experimental facility setup that mimics SNS operating conditions, the authors successfully conducted 21 early fault detection experiments, where fault precursors are introduced in the system to a degree enough to cause degradation in the waveform signals, but not enough to reach a real fault. Nine different machine learning techniques based on ensemble trees, convolutional neural networks, support vector machines, and hierarchical voting ensembles are proposed to detect the fault precursors. Although all 9 models have shown a perfect and identical performance during the training and testing phase, the performance of most models has decreased in the next test phase once they got exposed to realworld data from the 21 experiments. The hierarchical voting ensemble, which features multiple layers of diverse models, maintains a distinguished performance in early detection of the fault precursors with 95% success rate (20/21 tests), followed by adaboost and extremely randomized trees with 52% and 48% success rates, respectively. The support vector machine models were the worst with only 24% success rate (5/21 tests). The study concluded that a successful implementation of machine learning in the SNS or particle accelerator power systems would require a major upgrade in the controller and the data acquisition system to facilitate streaming and handling big data for the machine learning models. In addition, this study shows that the best performing models were diverse and based on the ensemble concept to reduce the bias and hyperparameter sensitivity of individual models.
Training toward significance with the decorrelated event classifier transformer neural network
Experimental particle physics uses machine learning for many tasks, where one application is to classify signal and background events. This classification can be used to bin an analysis region to enhance the expected significance for a mass resonance search. In natural language processing, one of the leading neural network architectures is the transformer. In this work, an event classifier transformer is proposed to bin an analysis region, in which the network is trained with special techniques. The techniques developed here can enhance the significance and reduce the correlation between the network’s output and the reconstructed mass. It is found that this trained network can perform better than boosted decision trees and feed-forward networks. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
Sensor selection and tool wear prediction with data‐driven models for precision machining
Abstract Estimation of tool wear in precision machining is vital in the traditional subtractive machining industry to reduce processing cost, improve manufacturing efficiency and product quality. In this vein, fusion of time and frequency‐domain features of commonly sensed signals can provide an early indication of tool wear and improve its prediction accuracy for prognostics and health management. This paper presents a data‐driven methodology and a complete tool chain for the inference of precision machining tool wear from fused machine measurements, such as cutting force, power, audio and vibration signals, and quantify the usefulness of each measurement. Indicators of tool wear are extracted from time‐domain signal statistics, frequency‐domain analysis, and time‐frequency domain analysis. Correlation coefficients between the extracted features (indicators) and the tool wear are used to select the most informative features. Principal Component Analysis and Partial Least‐Squares are used to reduce the dimensionality of the feature space. Regression models, including linear regression, support vector regression, Decision tree regression, neural network regression and Gaussian process regression, are used to predict the tool wear using data from a Haas milling machine performing spiral boss face milling. The performance of the regression models based on subsets of sensors validates the preliminary estimates about the saliency of the sensors. The experimental results show that the proposed methods can predict the machine tool wear precisely, with readily available sensor measurements. Neural network and Gaussian process regression were able to achieve good estimates of tool wear at different machine operating conditions. The most informative signal in predicting tool wear was shown to be the vibration signal. Time‐frequency domain features were the most informative features among the combination of features of three domains. In addition, using partial least squares components extracted from the original features of signals led to higher prediction accuracy.
Efficient prediction of attosecond two-colour pulses from an X-ray free-electron laser with machine learning
Abstract X-ray free-electron lasers are sources of coherent, high-intensity X-rays with numerous applications in ultra-fast measurements and dynamic structural imaging. Due to the stochastic nature of the self-amplified spontaneous emission process and the difficulty in controlling injection of electrons, output pulses exhibit significant noise and limited temporal coherence. Standard measurement techniques used for characterizing two-coloured X-ray pulses are challenging, as they are either invasive or diagnostically expensive. In this work, we employ machine learning methods such as neural networks and decision trees to predict the central photon energies of pairs of attosecond fundamental and second harmonic pulses using parameters that are easily recorded at the high-repetition rate of a single shot. Using real experimental data, we apply a detailed feature analysis on the input parameters while optimizing the training time of the machine learning methods. Our predictive models are able to make predictions of central photon energy for one of the pulses without measuring the other pulse, thereby leveraging the use of the spectrometer without having to extend its detection window. We anticipate applications in X-ray spectroscopy using XFELs, such as in time-resolved X-ray absorption and photoemission spectroscopy, where improved measurement of input spectra will lead to better experimental outcomes.
Pulse shape discrimination technique for diffuse supernova neutrino background search with JUNO
Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) is widely used in particle and nuclear physics. Specifically in liquid scintillator detectors, PSD facilitates the classification of different particle types based on their energy deposition patterns. This technique is particularly valuable for studies of the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB), nucleon decay, and dark matter searches. This paper presents a detailed investigation of the PSD technique, applied in the DSNB search performed with the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO). Instead of using conventional cut-and-count methods, we employ methods based on boosted decision trees and neural networks and compare their capability to distinguish the DSNB signals from the atmospheric neutrino neutral-current background events. The two methods demonstrate comparable performance, resulting in a 50–80% improvement in signal efficiency compared to a previous study performed for JUNO (An et al. [JUNO] in J Phys G 43(3):030401, 2016). Moreover, we study the dependence of the PSD performance on the visible energy and final state composition of the events and find a significant dependence on the presence/absence of 11 C. Finally, we evaluate the impact of the detector effects (photon propagation, PMT dark noise, and waveform reconstruction) on the PSD performance.
Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions
his report details the findings from the research and investigation of Geometric Measures of Trustworthiness for Machine Learning Predictions. We explored the trustworthiness of machine learning (ML) models’ predictions using geometric measures to quantify the similarity of a query point with the training data. Predictive uncertainty in ML can originate from at least three sources: (1) Model uncertainty, which represents the uncertainty in model form (e.g. decision tree, vs neural network) and estimating the model parameters from the training data, (2) Data uncertainty, which represents the natural complexities of the data such as class overlap and inherent noise, and (3) Distributional uncertainty, which represents the mismatch between the training and operational distributions. The proposed measures focus on measuring and explaining the data and distributional uncertainties by measuring the relationships of operational data with the training data.
First Report and Molecular Variability of Belonolaimus longicaudatus Associated with Turfgrass in Maryland
Abstract Turfgrass is a crop used extensively in athletic fields and golf courses in Maryland. A soil sample collected in July 2023 from an athletic field in Baltimore County, Maryland, part of a turfgrass nematode survey, containedBelonolaimus longicaudatus. In the southeastern United States,B. longicaudatusis an economically important pathogen of warm season turfgrass. The density was four individuals/100 cm 3 of soil, and no visual symptoms were observed in the bermudagrass field. Morphological features and morphometrics of males and females were consistent withB. longicaudatusand placed the Maryland population in a subclade that was geographically represented by populations from north and west Florida, Texas, and South Carolina. Sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer region ITS1 and ITS2 and 28S large ribosomal subunit D2-23 expansion region confirmed the species' identity. Phylogenetic trees and parsimony network analysis placed the Maryland isolate in a large grouping ofB. longicaudatuspopulations including those from Alabama, Delaware, Florida, Indiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. To our knowledge, this is the first report ofB. longicaudatusin Maryland.
Scheduling of an aircraft fleet
Scheduling is the task of assigning resources to operations. When the resources are mobile vehicles, they describe routes through the served stations. To emphasize such aspect, this problem is usually referred to as the routing problem. In particular, if vehicles are aircraft and stations are airports, the problem is known as aircraft routing. This paper describes the solution to such a problem developed in OMAR (Operative Management of Aircraft Routing), a system implemented by Bull HN for Alitalia. In our approach, aircraft routing is viewed as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem. The solving strategy combines network consistency and tree search techniques.
Support vector machines
Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are a type of supervised learning algorith,, other examples of which are Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Decision Trees, and Naive Bayesian Classifiers. Supervised learning algorithms are used to classify objects labled by a 'supervisor' - typically a human 'expert.'.
NASA Tech Briefs, April 2004
Topics covered include: Analysis of SSEM Sensor Data Using BEAM; Hairlike Percutaneous Photochemical Sensors; Video Guidance Sensors Using Remotely Activated Targets; Simulating Remote Sensing Systems; EHW Approach to Temperature Compensation of Electronics; Polymorphic Electronic Circuits; Micro-Tubular Fuel Cells; Whispering-Gallery-Mode Tunable Narrow-Band-Pass Filter; PVM Wrapper; Simulation of Hyperspectral Images; Algorithm for Controlling a Centrifugal Compressor; Hybrid Inflatable Pressure Vessel; Double-Acting, Locking Carabiners; Position Sensor Integral with a Linear Actuator; Improved Electromagnetic Brake; Flow Straightener for a Rotating-Drum Liquid Separator; Sensory-Feedback Exoskeletal Arm Controller; Active Suppression of Instabilities in Engine Combustors; Fabrication of Robust, Flat, Thinned, UV-Imaging CCDs; Chemical Thinning Process for Fabricating UV-Imaging CCDs; Pseudoslit Spectrometer; Waste-Heat-Driven Cooling Using Complex Compound Sorbents; Improved Refractometer for Measuring Temperatures of Drops; Semiconductor Lasers Containing Quantum Wells in Junctions; Phytoplankton-Fluorescence-Lifetime Vertical Profiler; Hexagonal Pixels and Indexing Scheme for Binary Images; Finding Minimum-Power Broadcast Trees for Wireless Networks; and Automation of Design Engineering Processes.
Search Tree Pruning for Progressive Neural Architecture Search
Our neural architecture search algorithm progressively searches a tree of neural network architectures. Child nodes are created by inserting new layers determined by a transition graph into a parent network up to a maximum depth and pruned when performance is worse than its parent. This increases efficiency but makes the algorithm greedy. Simpler networks are successfully found before more complex ones that can achieve benchmark performance similar to other top-performing networks.
QuantifyML: How Good is My Machine Learning Model?
We present QuantifyML, which applies model counting to assess the learn ability, safety, and robustness of machine learning models. Typically, the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test datasets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. With QuantifyML we aim to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into aC program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise countsw.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, ex-pressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the safety and robustness of trained models.
Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines
Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.
Using machine learning for particle track identification in the CLAS12 detector
Particle track reconstruction is the most computationally intensive process in nuclear physics experiments. Traditional algorithms use a combinatorial approach that exhaustively tests track measurements ("hits") to identify those that form an actual particle trajectory. In this article, we describe the development of four machine learning (ML) models that assist the tracking algorithm by identifying valid track candidates from the measurements in drift chambers. Several types of machine learning models were tested, including: Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). As a result of this work, an MLP network classifier was implemented as part of the CLAS12 reconstruction software to provide the tracking code with recommended track candidates. The resulting software achieved accuracy of greater than 99% and resulted in an end-to-end speedup of 35% compared to existing algorithms.
Very High Resolution Tree Cover Mapping for Continental United States using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
Uncertainties in input land cover estimates contribute to a significant bias in modeled above ground biomass (AGB) and carbon estimates from satellite-derived data. The resolution of most currently used passive remote sensing products is not sufficient to capture tree canopy cover of less than ca. 10-20 percent, limiting their utility to estimate canopy cover and AGB for trees outside of forest land. In our study, we created a first of its kind Continental United States (CONUS) tree cover map at a spatial resolution of 1-m for the 2010-2012 epoch using the USDA NAIP imagery to address the present uncertainties in AGB estimates. The process involves different tasks including data acquisition ingestion to pre-processing and running a state-of-art encoder-decoder based deep convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm for automatically generating a tree non-tree map for almost a quarter million scenes. The entire processing chain including generation of the largest open source existing aerial satellite image training database was performed at the NEX supercomputing and storage facility. We believe the resulting forest cover product will substantially contribute to filling the gaps in ongoing carbon and ecological monitoring research and help quantifying the errors and uncertainties in derived products.