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At least 91 records · Page 5

Assessment of Uncertainty-Based Screening Volumes for NASA Robotic LEO and GEO Conjunction Risk Assessment

Conjunction Assessment operations require screening assets against the space object catalog by placing a pre-determined spatial volume around each asset and predicting when another object will violate that volume. The selection of the screening volume used for each spacecraft is a trade-off between observing all conjunction events that may pose a potential risk to the primary spacecraft and the ability to analyze those predicted events. If the screening volumes are larger, then more conjunctions can be observed and therefore the probability of a missed detection of a high risk conjunction event is small; however, the amount of data which needs to be analyzed increases. This paper characterizes the sensitivity of screening volume size to capturing typical orbit uncertainties and the expected number of conjunction events observed. These sensitivities are quantified in the form of a trade space that allows for selection of appropriate screen-ing volumes to fit the desired concept of operations, system limitations, and tolerable analyst workloads. This analysis will specifically highlight the screening volume determination and selection process for use in the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis process but will also provide a general framework for other Owner / Operators faced with similar decisions.

Narvet, Steven W.↗

Off-Nominal Performance of the International Space Station Solar Array Wings Under Orbital Eclipse Lighting Scenarios

This paper documents testing and analyses to quantify International Space Station (ISS) Solar Array Wing (SAW) string electrical performance under highly off-nominal, low-temperature-low-intensity (LILT) operating conditions with nonsolar light sources. This work is relevant for assessing feasibility and risks associated with a Sequential Shunt Unit (SSU) remove and replace (R&R) Extravehicular Activity (EVA). During eclipse, SAW strings can be energized by moonlight, EVA suit helmet lights or video camera lights. To quantify SAW performance under these off-nominal conditions, solar cell performance testing was performed using full moon, solar simulator and Video Camera Luminaire (VCL) light sources. Test conditions included 25 to 110 C temperatures and 1- to 0.0001-Sun illumination intensities. Electrical performance data and calculated eclipse lighting intensities were combined to predict SAW current-voltage output for comparison with electrical hazard thresholds. Worst case predictions show there is no connector pin molten metal hazard but crew shock hazard limits are exceeded due to VCL illumination. Assessment uncertainties and limitations are discussed along with operational solutions to mitigate SAW electrical hazards from VCL illumination. Results from a preliminary assessment of SAW arcing are also discussed. The authors recommend further analyses once SSU, R&R, and EVA procedures are better defined.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

Wildfire Segmentation From Remotely Sensed Data Using Quantum-Compatible Conditional Vector Quantized-Variational Autoencoders

Wildfires represent a critical environmental hazard with multifaceted implications for ecosystems, communities, and public health [1]. The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally have intensified the urgency for robust segmentation methodologies to facilitate effective mitigation, response, and recovery strategies [2]. Accurate wildfire segmentation is pivotal for delineating fire boundaries, assessing progression patterns, and prioritizing resource allocation during emergency scenarios. Furthermore, precise segmentation enables stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental scientists, and emergency responders, to formulate evidence-based strategies, thereby minimizing socio-economic disruptions and ecological degradation. Consequently, advancing wildfire segmentation techniques through innovative technological interventions remains a paramount research imperative. Although foundational in wildfire segmentation, traditional deterministic models exhibit inherent limitations that compromise their efficacy in dynamic and uncertain environments. These models often operate on rigid algorithms prioritizing deterministic classifications, thereby overlooking the inherent complexities and uncertainties associated with wildfire behavior and satellite data variability. Such deterministic frameworks tend to produce oversimplified representations that fail to capture the intricate nuances of evolving fire dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental interactions [1]. Consequently, the deterministic approach’s propensity for uncertainty collapsing [1, 3] hampers the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of segmentation outcomes in real-world scenarios. Contrastingly, stochastic models offer a more nuanced and adaptable framework for wildfire segmentation. By integrating probabilistic elements into the modeling paradigm, stochastic approaches, particularly probabilistic approaches such as variational auto encoders (VAEs) [4], facilitate comprehensive uncertainty assessment, enabling researchers to quantify and incorporate uncertainties into segmentation outcomes effectively. This probabilistic nature empowers stochastic models to encapsulate variability, account for data inconsistencies, and adapt to evolving environmental conditions, enhancing segmentation accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Embracing stochastic methodologies thus catalyzes advancements in wildfire science by fostering a more holistic, adaptive, and resilient segmentation framework. Despite VAEs demonstrating significant promise in various applications, they come with inherent limitations that have garnered attention within the machine learning community. One of the primary drawbacks lies in their reliance on static priors, which essentially assume a fixed distribution for latent variables, thereby limiting the model’s flexibility to capture complex data structures effectively [5]. This static nature leads to suboptimal representations, especially when dealing with complex and high-dimensional data. Additionally, VAEs often struggle with generating sharp and realistic samples, a phenomenon commonly referred to as mode collapse [5, 7, 6]. Furthermore, the optimization process in VAEs, which involves balancing the reconstruction loss and the regularization term, can sometimes be challenging to fine-tune [7]. In recent efforts to address these shortcomings, alternative approaches like Vector Quantized Variational Auto encoders(VQ-VAEs) [7], address the challenges by incorporating discrete latent variables and leveraging techniques that enhance the quality and diversity of generated samples while maintaining efficient training dynamics. VQ-VAEs propose a dynamic prior distribution generation mechanism that diverges from the static priors commonly associated with traditional VAEs. This dynamic approach allows for more adaptive and context-aware latent variable representations, thereby potentially capturing complex data structures more effectively. Unlike autoregressive prior models such as PixelCNN, which, despite their ability to model dependencies across data dimensions, suffer from significant computational inefficiencies and lack flexibility in handling diverse datasets. In our work, we propose to use a generative quantum-compatible approach to help alleviate the shortcomings of autoregressive prior model in VQ-VAEs. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a viable alternative prior model that can learn prior distributions in a faster and more flexible manner. In this research endeavor, we meticulously curate a state-of-the-art dataset leveraging satellite MODIS data in conjunction with VIIRS fire masks, derived from Fire Radiative Power (FRP), thereby encapsulating diverse wildfire scenarios and environmental contexts. We developed a conditional VQ-VAE architecture with the RBM prior model that is trained in a supervised manner for segmenting wildfire masks. This innovative approach synergistically harnesses deep learning capabilities, enabling the generation of segmentation maps characterized by heightened precision, granularity, and contextual relevance. Furthermore, replacing the autoregressive prior learning method proposed by the original VQ-VAE with a prior density approximation via quantum-compatible RBM facilitates expedited inference processes, augments flexibility in prior sampling, optimizes computational efficiency and establishes a groundbreaking benchmark in wildfire segmentation methodologies.

quantum machine learning↗

Calibration of Al7075 with Plate-Puncture Predictions

The following details calibration of a material model for Al7075-T6511. This aluminum alloy is commonly used across a host of engineering applications. Owing to its widespread prevalence, there is great benefit in improving simulation predictions for this alloy. In the present effort, a calibration is performed of its elastic-plastic response accounting for both rate and temperature dependence. The calibration is informed by a series of tests that include specimens of different geometries tested at different rates and temperatures. All specimens are derived from the same barstock, 3.5 inches in diameter. The fitted model itself uses an anisotropic, Hill yield surface coupled with a Johnson-Cook hardening model. Failure predictions are had by means of a modified Wilkins failure criterion. Following calibration of the material model, a validation exercise is performed against platepuncture experiments. These experiments include multiple probe shapes, probe diameters, and plate thicknesses. The puncture experiments are replicated in simulation with mesh studies performed to assess uncertainty. Key quantities of interest, notably the absorbed energy up to failure, are compared between simulation and experiment providing a means to assess the suitability of the calibration in puncture simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impact of LWR assembly structural features on cladding burst behavior under LOCA conditions

This provides an initial scoping study on clad balloon and burst behavior for burnup extension of reactor fuel. The associated issues with burnup extension are fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal in the event of cladding failure. The general finding of this work is that the structural features, spacer grids and mixing vanes, locally suppress cladding deformation but have little impact on the overall clad performance during loss-of-coolant accidents. The work detailed in a previous report by Capps et al. focused on core optimization via neutronics, thermal hydraulics and thermomechanical analysis for burnups beyond 62 GWD/tU and enrichments above 5%. Uncertainty of fuel fragmentation relocation and dispersal in high-burnup rods during accident conditions was also investigated. The dispersal aspect of fuel fragmentation depends on cladding rupture. Thus, assessing uncertainties in the rupture behavior is helpful in estimating the dispersal of high-burnup fuel. This study builds on the previous work by assessing the impact of assembly structural features on cladding balloon and burst behavior in a full-length fuel rod. In this work, the BISON fuel performance code was used to generate 2D radial and height meshes containing structural features commonly used in nuclear fuel assemblies. First, meshes were generated with spacer grids. Results were then compared to the cladding burst temperature and balloon strain results from the previous work. A mesh sensitivity study was performed to ensure that mixing vanes and spacer grid effects were appropriately considered, resulting in a more refined mesh than the previous study. The balloon deformation and burst times of the cladding were compared to the original case. Consideration was also given to the effect of rod initial pressure. In conclusion, 3D quarter rod simulations were also performed and found good agreement with the 2D simulations in clad deformation and reasonable agreement in burst times.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation of Uncertainties of Pressure Gain Measurements in Rotating Detonation Combustor

Experimentally measuring the pressure gain of a rotating detonation combustor through the method of equivalent available pressure is prone to many experimental uncertainties. A detailed analysis of sources of random and systematic uncertainties in the thrust and pressure gain is performed using data from a hydrogen/air-operated rotating detonation combustor. The combustor had an axial air inlet and a 50% exit constriction. The measured (negative) pressure gain values agree with the results in the literature for similar inlet-to-exit area ratios. The base drag correction on the centerbody was found to be the greatest source of uncertainty for the thrust. While thrust is the predominant source of random uncertainty in the pressure gain calculation, significant systematic errors can be committed due to the assumed exit Mach number. The impact of this assumption becomes more detrimental the closer to positive the measured pressure gain is. By experimentally evaluating the exit Mach number, the random and systematic uncertainty in pressure gain both decreased, indicating that this should be an essential step. A definitive demonstration of gain is challenging, given the assessed uncertainties, and recommendations are provided to increase the precision of the equivalent available pressure methodology.

Engineering↗

Airborne Polarimeter Intercomparison for the NASA Aerosols-Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) Mission

The Aerosols-Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) mission, recommended by the National Research Council's Decadal Survey, calls for a multi-angle, multi-spectral polarimeter devoted to observations of atmospheric aerosols and clouds. In preparation for ACE, NASA funds the deployment of airborne polarimeters, including the Airborne Multi-angle SpectroPolarimeter Imager (AirMSPI), the Passive Aerosol and Cloud Suite (PACS) and the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). These instruments have been operated together on NASA's ER-2 high altitude aircraft as part of field campaigns such as the POlarimeter DEfinition EXperiment (PODEX) (California, early 2013) and Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS, California and Texas, summer 2013). Our role in these efforts has been to serve as an assessment team performing level 1 (calibrated radiance, polarization) and level 2 (retrieved geophysical parameter) instrument intercomparisons, and to promote unified and generalized calibration, uncertainty assessment and retrieval techniques. We will present our progress in this endeavor thus far and describe upcoming research in 2015.

ACE↗

Progress in Airborne Polarimeter Inter Comparison for the NASA Aerosols-Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) Mission

The Aerosols-Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) mission, recommended by the National Research Council's Decadal Survey, calls for a multi-angle, multi-spectral polarimeter devoted to observations of atmospheric aerosols and clouds. In preparation for ACE, NASA funds the deployment of airborne polarimeters, including the Airborne Multiangle SpectroPolarimeter Imager (AirMSPI), the Passive Aerosol and Cloud Suite (PACS) and the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). These instruments have been operated together on NASA's ER-2 high altitude aircraft as part of field campaigns such as the POlarimeter DEfinition EXperiment (PODEX) (California, early 2013) and Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS, California and Texas, summer 2013). Our role in these efforts has been to serve as an assessment team performing level 1 (calibrated radiance, polarization) and level 2 (retrieved geophysical parameter) instrument intercomparisons, and to promote unified and generalized calibration, uncertainty assessment and retrieval techniques. We will present our progress in this endeavor thus far and describe upcoming research in 2015.

Airborne↗

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗

Uncertainty in Observational Estimates of the Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect and Forcing

Aerosols continue to be responsible for the largest uncertainty in determining the anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate. To both reconcile the large range in satellite-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE, the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and to optimize the design of future observing systems, we build a framework for assessing uncertainty in aerosol DRE and the aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF, the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols, RF_ari). Shortwave aerosol radiative kernels (Jacobians) were derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. These radiative kernels are used to compute a lower-bound on the systematic uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol DRE/DRF by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The total uncertainty is shown to be dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5).

Tyler James Thorsen↗

Uncertainty in Agricultural Impact Assessment

This chapter considers issues concerning uncertainty associated with modeling and its use within agricultural impact assessments. Information about uncertainty is important for those who develop assessment methods, since that information indicates the need for, and the possibility of, improvement of the methods and databases. Such information also allows one to compare alternative methods. Information about the sources of uncertainties is an aid in prioritizing further work on the impact assessment method. Uncertainty information is also necessary for those who apply assessment methods, e.g., for projecting climate change impacts on agricultural production and for stakeholders who want to use the results as part of a decision-making process (e.g., for adaptation planning). For them, uncertainty information indicates the degree of confidence they can place in the simulated results. Quantification of uncertainty also provides stakeholders with an important guideline for making decisions that are robust across the known uncertainties. Thus, uncertainty information is important for any decision based on impact assessment. Ultimately, we are interested in knowledge about uncertainty so that information can be used to achieve positive outcomes from agricultural modeling and impact assessment.

damage assessment↗

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions

Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗

Quantitative Risk Assessment (Topical Report)

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations plays a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Quantitative risk assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. We present the use, progress, and research trends of risk assessment from the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. The information provided in this report can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply them effectively in large-scale CCUS projects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Data Generated for a Model Scramjet Isolator Flowfield

Computational fluid dynamics is now considered to be an indispensable tool for the design and development of scramjet engine components. Unfortunately, the quantification of uncertainties is rarely addressed with anything other than sensitivity studies, so the degree of confidence associated with the numerical results remains exclusively with the subject matter expert that generated them. This practice must be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification process for computational fluid dynamics to play an expanded role in the system design, development, and flight certification process. Given the limitations of current hypersonic ground test facilities, this expanded role is believed to be a requirement by some in the hypersonics community if scramjet engines are to be given serious consideration as a viable propulsion system. The present effort describes a simple, relatively low cost, nonintrusive approach to uncertainty quantification that includes the basic ingredients required to handle both aleatoric (random) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) sources of uncertainty. The nonintrusive nature of the approach allows the computational fluid dynamicist to perform the uncertainty quantification with the flow solver treated as a "black box". Moreover, a large fraction of the process can be automated, allowing the uncertainty assessment to be readily adapted into the engineering design and development workflow. In the present work, the approach is applied to a model scramjet isolator problem where the desire is to validate turbulence closure models in the presence of uncertainty. In this context, the relevant uncertainty sources are determined and accounted for to allow the analyst to delineate turbulence model-form errors from other sources of uncertainty associated with the simulation of the facility flow.

Baurle, R. A.↗

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed

Xue, Yan↗