Results for “uncertainty in complex systems” — Page 5

NASA NTRS1988

Precision pointing of scientific instruments on space station: The LFGGREC perspective

An application of Lyapunov function-gradient-generated robustness-enhancing control (LFGGREC) is explored. The attention is directed to a reduced-complexity representation of the pointing problem presented by the system composed of the Space Infrared Telescope Facility gimbaled to a space station configuration. Uncertainties include disturbance forces applied in the crew compartment area and control moments applied to adjacent scientific payloads (modeled as disturbance moments). Also included are uncertainties in gimbal friction and in the structural component of the system, as reflected in the inertia matrix, the damping matrix, and the stiffness matrix, and the effect of the ignored vibrational dynamics of the structure. The emphasis is on the adaptation of LFGGREC to this particular configuration and on the robustness analysis.

Blackwell, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Minimal complexity control law synthesis

A paradigm for control law design for modern engineering systems is proposed: Minimize control law complexity subject to the achievement of a specified accuracy in the face of a specified level of uncertainty. Correspondingly, the overall goal is to make progress towards the development of a control law design methodology which supports this paradigm. Researchers achieve this goal by developing a general theory of optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback compensation, where here constrained-structure means that the dynamic-structure (e.g., dynamic order, pole locations, zero locations, etc.) of the output feedback compensation is constrained in some way. By applying this theory in an innovative fashion, where here the indicated iteration occurs over the choice of the compensator dynamic-structure, the paradigm stated above can, in principle, be realized. The optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback problem is formulated in general terms. An elegant method for reducing optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback problems to optimal static output feedback problems is then developed. This reduction procedure makes use of star products, linear fractional transformations, and linear fractional decompositions, and yields as a byproduct a complete characterization of the class of optimal constrained-structure dynamic output feedback problems which can be reduced to optimal static output feedback problems. Issues such as operational/physical constraints, operating-point variations, and processor throughput/memory limitations are considered, and it is shown how anti-windup/bumpless transfer, gain-scheduling, and digital processor implementation can be facilitated by constraining the controller dynamic-structure in an appropriate fashion.

Bernstein, Dennis S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Robust root clustering for linear uncertain systems using generalized Lyapunov theory

Consideration is given to the problem of matrix root clustering in subregions of a complex plane for linear state space models with real parameter uncertainty. The nominal matrix root clustering theory of Gutman & Jury (1981) using the generalized Liapunov equation is extended to the perturbed matrix case, and bounds are derived on the perturbation to maintain root clustering inside a given region. The theory makes it possible to obtain an explicit relationship between the parameters of the root clustering region and the uncertainty range of the parameter space.

Yedavalli, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Framework for Probabilistic Evaluation of Interval Management Tolerance in the Terminal Radar Control Area

Projections of future traffic in the national airspace show that most of the hub airports and their attendant airspace will need to undergo significant redevelopment and redesign in order to accommodate any significant increase in traffic volume. Even though closely spaced parallel approaches increase throughput into a given airport, controller workload in oversubscribed metroplexes is further taxed by these approaches that require stringent monitoring in a saturated environment. The interval management (IM) concept in the TRACON area is designed to shift some of the operational burden from the control tower to the flight deck, placing the flight crew in charge of implementing the required speed changes to maintain a relative spacing interval. The interval management tolerance is a measure of the allowable deviation from the desired spacing interval for the IM aircraft (and its target aircraft). For this complex task, Formal Methods can help to ensure better design and system implementation. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework to quantify the uncertainty and performance associated with the major components of the IM tolerance. The analytical basis for this framework may be used to formalize both correctness and probabilistic system safety claims in a modular fashion at the algorithmic level in a way compatible with several Formal Methods tools.

Hercencia-Zapana, Heber↗

NASA NTRS2004

Overview of Intelligent Systems and Operations Development

To achieve NASA's ambitious mission objectives for the future, aircraft and spacecraft will need intelligence to take the correct action in a variety of circumstances. Vehicle intelligence can be defined as the ability to "do the right thing" when faced with a complex decision-making situation. It will be necessary to implement integrated autonomous operations and low-level adaptive flight control technologies to direct actions that enhance the safety and success of complex missions despite component failures, degraded performance, operator errors, and environment uncertainty. This paper will describe the array of technologies required to meet these complex objectives. This includes the integration of high-level reasoning and autonomous capabilities with multiple subsystem controllers for robust performance. Future intelligent systems will use models of the system, its environment, and other intelligent agents with which it interacts. They will also require planners, reasoning engines, and adaptive controllers that can recommend or execute commands enabling the system to respond intelligently. The presentation will also address the development of highly dependable software, which is a key component to ensure the reliability of intelligent systems.

Pallix, Joan↗

NASA NTRS2004

Scientific Objectives, Measurement Needs, and Challenges Motivating the PARAGON Aerosol Initiative

Aerosols are involved in a complex set of processes that operate across many spatial and temporal scales. Understanding these processes, and ensuring their accurate representation in models of transport, radiation transfer, and climate, requires knowledge of aerosol physical, chemical, and optical properties and the distributions of these properties in space and time. To derive aerosol climate forcing, aerosol optical and microphysical properties and their spatial and temporal distributions, and aerosol interactions with clouds, need to be understood. Such data are also required in conjunction with size-resolved chemical composition in order to evaluate chemical transport models and to distinguish natural and anthropogenic forcing. Other basic parameters needed for modeling the radiative influences of aerosols are surface reflectivity and three-dimensional cloud fields. This large suite of parameters mandates an integrated observing and modeling system of commensurate scope. The Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) concept, designed to meet this requirement, is motivated by the need to understand climate system sensitivity to changes in atmospheric constituents, to reduce climate model uncertainties, and to analyze diverse collections of data pertaining to aerosols. This paper highlights several challenges resulting from the complexity of the problem. Approaches for dealing with them are offered in the set of companion papers.

optical depth↗

NASA NTRS1974

The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

Leonard, J. I.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Neural control of magnetic suspension systems

The purpose of this research program is to design, build and test (in cooperation with NASA personnel from the NASA Langley Research Center) neural controllers for two different small air-gap magnetic suspension systems. The general objective of the program is to study neural network architectures for the purpose of control in an experimental setting and to demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. The specific objectives of the research program are: (1) to demonstrate through simulation and experimentation the feasibility of using neural controllers to stabilize a nonlinear magnetic suspension system; (2) to investigate through simulation and experimentation the performance of neural controllers designs under various types of parametric and nonparametric uncertainty; (3) to investigate through simulation and experimentation various types of neural architectures for real-time control with respect to performance and complexity; and (4) to benchmark in an experimental setting the performance of neural controllers against other types of existing linear and nonlinear compensator designs. To date, the first one-dimensional, small air-gap magnetic suspension system has been built, tested and delivered to the NASA Langley Research Center. The device is currently being stabilized with a digital linear phase-lead controller. The neural controller hardware is under construction. Two different neural network paradigms are under consideration, one based on hidden layer feedforward networks trained via back propagation and one based on using Gaussian radial basis functions trained by analytical methods related to stability conditions. Some advanced nonlinear control algorithms using feedback linearization and sliding mode control are in simulation studies.

Gray, W. Steven↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Regional-Scale Assessment of Satellite Derived Precipitable Water Vapor Across The Amazon Basin

Atmospheric water vapor is widely recognized as a key climate variable, linking an assortment of poorly understood and complex processes. It is a major element of the hydrological cycle and provides a mechanism for energy exchange among many of the Earth system components. Reducing uncertainty in our current knowledge of water vapor and its role in the climate system requires accurate measurement, improved modeling techniques, and long-term prediction. Satellites have the potential to satisfy these criteria, as well as provide high resolution measurements that are not available from conventional sources. The focus of this paper is to examine the temporal and mesoscale variations of satellite derived precipitable water vapor (PW) across the Amazon Basin. This region is pivotal in the functioning of the global climate system through its abundant release of latent heat associated with heavy precipitation events. In addition, anthropogenic deforestation and biomass burning activities in recent decades are altering the conditions of the atmosphere, especially in the planetary boundary layer. A physical split-window (PSW) algorithm estimates PW using images from the GOES satellites along with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data that provides the first guess information. Retrievals are made at a three-hourly time step during daylight hours in the Amazon Basin and surrounding areas for the months of June and October in 1988 (dry year) and 1995 (wet year). Spatially continuous fields are generated 5 times daily at 12Z, 15Z, 18Z, 21Z, and 00Z. These fields are then averaged to create monthly and 3 hourly monthly grids. Overall, the PSW estimates PW reasonable well in the Amazon with MAE ranging from 3.0 - 9.0 mm and MAE/observed mean around 20% in comparison to radiosonde observations. The distribution of PW generally mimics that of precipitation. Maximum values (42 - 52 mm) are located in the Northwest whereas minimum values (18 - 27 mm) are found along Brazil's East coast. Aside from the East coast, PW has a stronger north-south gradient than that of rainfall. As for the temporal variation of PW, June (1988 and 1995) experiences a peak about 1400 local time, corresponding to a maximum in air temperature. In contrast, October (1988 and 1995) experiences a maximum early in the day, 1100 local time, with a gradual decrease toward nighttime.

DeLiberty, Tracy↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Probabilistic Approach of Incorporating Safety and Reliability in System Designs for a Manned Mission to Mars

Conceptual stages in mission design often lack the input of quantitative safety and reliability assessments, simply because failure rates or other data are not yet available for systems that have not yet been designed. Absence of such data should not, however, prevent the development of a quantitative risk models with placeholders for missing data. Functions (that is, actions the systems must perform) in mission design will eventually require system probabilities of success, and there could be much learned from surrogate data, adequately bounded in uncertainty, used in a large event tree model of a complex mission.

Railsback, Jan W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program: Spacecraft Charging Technology Development Activities

Reducing size and weight of spacecraft, along with demanding increased performance capabilities, introduces many uncertainties in the engineering design community on how materials and spacecraft systems will perform in space. The engineering design community is forever behind on obtaining and developing new tools and guidelines to mitigate the harmful effects of the space environment. Adding to this complexity is the continued push to use Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) microelectronics, potential usage of unproven technologies such as large solar sail structures and nuclear electric propulsion. In order to drive down these uncertainties, various programs are working together to avoid duplication, save what resources are available in this technical area and possess a focused agenda to insert these new developments into future mission designs. This paper will introduce the SEE Program, briefly discuss past and currently sponsored spacecraft charging activities and possible future endeavors.

Kauffman, Billy↗

NASA NTRS2003

Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program: Spacecraft Charging Technology Development Activities

Reducing size and weight of spacecraft, along with demanding increased performance capabilities, introduces many uncertainties in the engineering design community on how materials and spacecraft systems will perform in space. The engineering design community is forever behind on obtaining and developing new tools and guidelines to mitigate the harmful effects of the space environment. Adding to this complexity is the continued push to use Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) microelectronics, potential usage of unproven technologies such as large solar sail structures and nuclear electric propulsion. In order to drive down these uncertainties, various programs are working together to avoid duplication, save what resources are available in this technical area and possess a focused agenda to insert these new developments into future mission designs. This paper will introduce the SEE Program, briefly discuss past and currently sponsored spacecraft charging activities and possible future endeavors.

Kauffman, B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program: Spacecraft Charging Technology Development Activities

Reducing size and weight of spacecraft, along with demanding increased performance capabilities, introduces many uncertainties in the engineering design community on how materials and spacecraft systems will perform in space. The engineering design community is forever behind on obtaining and developing new tools and guidelines to mitigate the harmful effects of the space environment. Adding to this complexity is the continued push to use Commercial-off-the-Shelf (COTS) microelectronics, potential usage of unproven technologies such as large solar sail structures and nuclear electric propulsion. In order to drive down these uncertainties, various programs are working together to avoid duplication, save what resources are available in this technical area and possess a focused agenda to insert these new developments into future mission designs. This paper will introduce the SEE Program, briefly discuss past and currently sponsored spacecraft charging activities and possible future endeavors.

Kauffman, B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

Morris, A. Terry↗

NASA NTRS1997

Fatigue Reliability of Gas Turbine Engine Structures

The results of an investigation are described for fatigue reliability in engine structures. The description consists of two parts. Part 1 is for method development. Part 2 is a specific case study. In Part 1, the essential concepts and practical approaches to damage tolerance design in the gas turbine industry are summarized. These have evolved over the years in response to flight safety certification requirements. The effect of Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) methods on these methods is also reviewed. Assessment methods based on probabilistic fracture mechanics, with regard to both crack initiation and crack growth, are outlined. Limit state modeling techniques from structural reliability theory are shown to be appropriate for application to this problem, for both individual failure mode and system-level assessment. In Part 2, the results of a case study for the high pressure turbine of a turboprop engine are described. The response surface approach is used to construct a fatigue performance function. This performance function is used with the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) to determine the probability of failure and the sensitivity of the fatigue life to the engine parameters for the first stage disk rim of the two stage turbine. A hybrid combination of regression and Monte Carlo simulation is to use incorporate time dependent random variables. System reliability is used to determine the system probability of failure, and the sensitivity of the system fatigue life to the engine parameters of the high pressure turbine. 'ne variation in the primary hot gas and secondary cooling air, the uncertainty of the complex mission loading, and the scatter in the material data are considered.

Cruse, Thomas A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

ARCSTONE: Calibration of Lunar Spectral Reflectance from Space

Detecting and improving the scientific understanding of global trends in complex Earth systems, such as climate, increasingly depends on assimilating datasets from multiple instruments and platforms over decadal timescales. Calibration accuracy, stability, and inter-consistency among different instruments are key to developing reliable composite data records from sensors in low Earth and geostationary orbits, but achieving sufficiently low uncertainties for these performance metrics poses a significant challenge. Space-borne instruments commonly carry on-board references for calibration at various wavelengths, but these increase mass and mission complexity, and are subject to degradation in the space environment. The Moon can be considered a natural solar diffuser which can be observed as a calibration target by most spaceborne Earth-observing instruments. Since the lunar surface reflectance is effectively time-invariant, establishing the Moon as a high-accuracy calibration reference enables broad inter-calibration opportunities even between temporally non-overlapping instruments and provides an exo-atmospheric absolute radiometric standard. The ARCSTONE mission goal is to establish the Moon as a reliable reference for high-accuracy on-orbit calibration in the visible and near-infrared spectral region. The ARCSTONE instrument is a compact spectrometer, which will be packaged on a CubeSat intended for low Earth orbit. It will measure the lunar spectral reflectance with accuracy < 0.5% (k=1), sufficient to establish an SI-traceable absolute lunar calibration standard when referenced to the spectral solar irradiance across the 350 to 2300 nm spectral range. This lunar reference will help to enable high-accuracy absolute calibration and inter-calibration of past, current, and future Earth-observing sensors, meteorological imagers, and long-term climate monitoring satellite systems. The ARCSTONE team will present the development status of a full-spectral-range (FSR) instrument, the intended approach to calibration and characterization, and the planned path toward mission implementation.

calibration↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ARCSTONE: Calibration of Lunar Spectral Reﬂectance from Space

Detecting and improving the scientific understanding of global trends in complex Earth systems, such as climate, increasingly depends on assimilating datasets from multiple instruments and platforms over decadal timescales. Calibration accuracy, stability, and inter-consistency among different instruments are key to developing reliable composite data records from sensors in low Earth and geostationary orbits, but achieving sufficiently low uncertainties for these performance metrics poses a significant challenge. Space-borne instruments commonly carry on-board references for calibration at various wavelengths, but these increase mass and mission complexity, and are subject to degradation in the space environment. The Moon can be considered a natural solar diffuser which can be observed as a calibration target by most spaceborne Earth-observing instruments. Since the lunar surface reflectance is effectively time-invariant, establishing the Moon as a high-accuracy calibration reference enables broad inter-calibration opportunities even between temporally non-overlapping instruments and provides an exo-atmospheric absolute radiometric standard. The ARCSTONE mission goal is to establish the Moon as a reliable reference for high-accuracy on-orbit calibration in the visible and near-infrared spectral region. The ARCSTONE instrument is a compact spectrometer, which will be packaged on a CubeSat intended for low Earth orbit. It will measure the lunar spectral reflectance with accuracy < 0.5% (k=1), sufficient to establish an SI-traceable absolute lunar calibration standard when referenced to the spectral solar irradiance across the 350 to 2300 nm spectral range. This lunar reference will help to enable high-accuracy absolute calibration and inter-calibration of past, current, and future Earth-observing sensors, meteorological imagers, and long-term climate monitoring satellite systems. The ARCSTONE team will present the development status of a full-spectral-range (FSR) instrument, the intended approach to calibration and characterization, and the planned path toward mission implementation.

Moon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗