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Urban Combined Heat and Power with Integrated Renewables and Energy Storage

This project demonstrated how incorporating a diverse generation and storage portfolio allows an urban district energy system to improve its efficiency by at least 50% and increase its backup power by at least 40% with a return on investment of at least ten years. The improvement was evaluated against the baseline operations for two urban district energy systems (DESs): a synthetic DES and a George Washington University DES. The DES techno-economic framework we developed yields reliability, resilience, and vulnerability indices for urban DESs (including generation and storage) with designation of which technologies improve the security and resiliency metrics by at least 20% compared to the status quo. The indices are benchmarked against baseline scenarios, and cost projections (capital cost and return on investment) to achieve the 20% improvement are reported. The energy management system we developed to conduct these analyses was incorporated into a user-friendly interface that can be used for decision-making by a user with no technical or programming background.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

How does urbanization affect CO 2 emissions of central heating systems in China? An assessment of natural gas transition policy based on nighttime light data

Understanding the different impacts of urbanization on sectorial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions at different spatial scales is of great importance for the evaluation of energy transition policies and reduction of environmental inequality. However, how urbanization affects the CO 2 emissions of central heating systems at high spatial resolution in China has not been fully studied before. Based on satellite-observed NPP-VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data, we develop a 5 km x 5 km annual CO 2 emission inventory for coal boilers, thermal power plants (TPPs), and natural gas boilers in China's central heating systems for the period 2012-2017 by using the geographical and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. It is observed that nonurban areas generated 2-4 times the CO 2 emissions of coal boilers in urban areas. The largest increments of CO 2 emissions of gas boilers are observed in urban areas of the eastern (6.80 times) and central regions (2.86 times) in 2013-2014, due to the clean heating policy in the "2 + 26" cities in China. The effects of urbanization on CO 2 emissions from natural gas boilers are approximately 2-3 times those of coal boilers, and the differences are largest in western cities with only minor differences in northeastern cities. Overall, our results will aid in designing low-carbon development goals and provide micro-level information on central heating facilities in urbanized and less developed regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Convergence and divergence in science and practice of urban and rural forest restoration

Forest restoration has never been higher on policymakers' agendas. Complex and multi-dimensional arrangements across the urban–rural continuum challenge restorationists and require integrative approaches to strengthen environmental protection and increase restoration outcomes. It remains unclear if urban and rural forest restoration are moving towards or away from each other in practice and research, and whether comparing research outcomes can help stakeholders to gain a clearer understanding of the interconnectedness between the two fields. This study aims to identify the challenges and opportunities for enhancing forest restoration in both urban and rural systems by reviewing the scientific evidence, engaging with key stakeholders and using an urban–rural forest restoration framework. Using the Society for Ecological Restoration's International Principles as discussion topics, we highlight aspects of convergence and divergence between the two fields to broaden our understanding of forest restoration and promote integrative management approaches to address future forest conditions. Our findings reveal that urban and rural forest restoration have convergent and divergent aspects. We emphasise the importance of tailoring goals and objectives to specific contexts and the need to design different institutions and incentives based on the social and ecological needs and goals of stakeholders in different regions. Here we discuss the challenges of achieving high levels of ecological restoration and the need to go beyond traditional ecology to plan, implement, monitor, and adaptively manage restored forests. We suggest that rivers and watersheds could serve as a common ground linking rural and urban landscapes and that forest restoration could interact with other environmental protection measures. We note the potential for expanding the creative vision associated with increasing tree-containing environments in cities to generate more diverse and resilient forest restoration outcomes in rural settings. This study underscores the value of integrative management approaches in addressing future forest conditions across the urban–rural continuum. Our framework provides valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and decision-makers to advance the field of forest restoration and address the challenges of restoration across the urban–rural continuum. The rural–urban interface serves as a convergence point for forest restoration, and both urban and rural fields can benefit from each other's expertise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Safety and Management Framework to Enable Automated Mobility Districts in Urban Areas

Automated mobility technology is beginning to emerge as a viable means to create sustainable and effective public mobility systems within denser urban environments. Automated mobility districts (AMDs) describe major urban districts or activity centers in which deployments of multiple automated vehicle (AV) transit and ride-hailing fleets are supported to meet public mobility needs. The authors put forward a framework to enable AMDs and their governing and management jurisdictional authorities to manage safety of AV operations based on lessons learned from the last century of automated guideway transit and roadway intersection traffic control systems. The essential concept is that of operational management and safety-critical control of multiple AV fleets using a “system-of-systems” approach to system safety analysis. The safety analysis would focus on safe passage of the AV fleet vehicles through complex roadway intersections and junctions, especially in the presence of other non-automated modes such as pedestrians and manually operated vehicles.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Decision Support Tool for Planning Neighborhood-Scale Deployment of Low-Speed Shared Automated Shuttles

Increasing interest and investment in connected, automated, and electric vehicles as well as mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) concepts are paving the way for the next major transformation in transportation through automated and shared mobility. The initial excitement toward rapid deployment and adoption of automated vehicles (AVs) has subsided, and low-speed automated shuttles are emerging as a more pragmatic pathway for introducing automated mobility in geofenced districts. Such shuttles hold the promise to provide a viable alternative for serving short trips in urban districts with high travel densities. As interest in low-speed automated shuttle systems (to improve urban mobility) increases, the need for tools that can inform communities in relation to benefits or disadvantages of automated shuttle deployments is imminent. However, most of the existing transportation planning and simulation tools are not capable of handling emerging shared automated mobility options. This paper presents a microscopic simulation toolkit that can be used by cities and communities to plan for the deployment of low-speed automated shuttles systems, as well as other shared mobility options. Labeled as the Automated Mobility District modeling and simulation toolkit, the proposed decision support tool intends to help cities evaluate the mobility and sustainability impacts of deploying shared automated vehicles (SAVs) in geofenced regions. This paper describes the toolkit, as well as a sample scenario analysis for the deployment of low-speed automated shuttles in Greenville, South Carolina, U.S. Results from the scenario study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed simulation toolkit in planning for advanced mobility systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Decision Support Tool for Planning Neighborhood-Scale Deployment of Low-Speed Shared Automated Shuttles

Increasing interest and investment in connected, automated, and electric vehicles, and mobility-as-a-service concepts are paving the way for the next major shift in transportation through automated and shared mobility. The initial excitement towards rapid deployment and adoption of automated vehicles has subsided, and low-speed automated shuttles are emerging as a more pragmatic pathway for introducing automated mobility in geo-fenced districts. Such shuttles hold the promise to provide a viable alternative for serving short trips in urban districts with high travel densities. As interest in low-speed automated shuttle systems (to improve urban mobility) increases, the need for tools that can inform communities regarding benefits or dis-benefits of automated shuttle deployments is imminent. However, most of the existing transportation planning and simulation tools are not capable of handling emerging shared automated mobility options. This presentation presents a microscopic simulation toolkit that can be used by cities and communities to plan for the deployment of low-speed automated shuttles systems, as well as other shared mobility options. Labeled as the Automated Mobility District (AMD) modeling and simulation toolkit, the proposed decision support tool can help cities evaluate the mobility and sustainability impacts of deploying shared automated vehicles in geofenced regions. This paper presents a description of the toolkit, as well as a sample scenario analysis for the deployment of low-speed automated shuttles in Greenville, South Carolina. Results from the scenario study demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed simulation toolkit in planning for advanced mobility systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling and Simulation of Automated Mobility Districts

Increasing interest and investment in connected, automated, and electric vehicles (CAEVs), and mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) concepts are paving the way for the next major shift in transportation through automated and shared mobility. The initial excitement towards rapid deployment and adoption of automated vehicles has subsided, and low-speed automated shuttles are emerging as a more pragmatic pathway for introducing automated mobility in geo-fenced districts. Such shuttles hold the promise to provide a viable alternative for serving short trips in urban districts with high travel densities. As interest in low-speed automated shuttle systems (to improve urban mobility) increases, the need for tools that can inform communities regarding benefits or dis-benefits of automated shuttle deployments is imminent. However, most of the existing transportation planning and simulation tools are not capable of handling emerging shared automated mobility options. This presentation provide the details of a microscopic simulation toolkit that can be used by cities and communities to plan for the deployment of low-speed automated shuttles systems, as well as other shared mobility options. Labeled as Automated Mobility District (AMD) modeling and simulation toolkit, the proposed decision support tool intends to help cities evaluate the mobility and sustainability impacts of deploying shared automated vehicles in geofenced regions.The AMD modeling and simulation task is funded through DOE's SMART Mobility Consortium. This presentation outlines the progress of the AMD modeling and simulation task in FY19, including case studies conducted in Greenville, SC, and Austin, TX.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Coastal-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) Science Plan

Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations regarding the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. Earth system (climate and weather) models have not yet been adapted to provide accurate predictions of climate and weather variability within cities, nor do they provide well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment. These limitations are largely due to limited field data available for testing and development of these models. We will deploy the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s first Mobile Facility (AMF1) to the mid-Atlantic region surrounding the city of Baltimore for the Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE). This deployment will create a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network including Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments – rural, urban, and bay. CoURAGE investigators will study the interactions among the Earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, aerosols and atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each site, and examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. This study will determine the degree to which Baltimore’s atmospheric environment depends on interactive feedbacks in the atmospheric system and the degree to which conditions in Baltimore depend on the surrounding environment. Some topics of interest include how urban land management exacerbates heat waves, the impact of regional mesoscale winds (nocturnal jet, bay breeze) on urban air pollution and cloud cover, and the impact of the urban heat island and aerosol production on heavy precipitation events. Understanding this integrated coast-urban-rural system quantitatively and with good accuracy and precision is critical to informing climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the city of Baltimore. The understanding gained should be applicable to many similar coastal, mid-latitude urban centers. Another important objective of CoURAGE is to improve the representation of the climate of coastal cities in Earth systems models (ESMs). CoURAGE investigators will use the observations to test current ESMs, identify weaknesses and work towards improved simulations of this complex environment. The ARM core facility will be deployed in the city of Baltimore, complementing the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE urban integrated field laboratory (UIFL). Ancillary sites will be deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore, and to the southern end of Kent Island within Chesapeake Bay. The fourth node will be a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland by Howard University and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Measurements will be conducted for one year, starting in December of 2024. There will be two intensive operational periods (IOPs), one in summer and one in winter, when the ancillary sites will be enhanced with additional balloon launches, tethered balloon system (TBS) operation, and added atmospheric composition measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Large-Scale Urbanization and Irrigation on Summer Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

This study investigates how urbanization and irrigation in the United States east of the Rocky Mountains affect summer precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region (MAR) using convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations with/without urbanization or irrigation. In this work, a feature tracking algorithm is used to identify precipitation from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), isolated deep convection (IDC), and non-convective systems (NC). Overall, urbanization suppresses all three types of precipitation in the MAR by reducing water vapor content and convective available potential energy, while irrigation enhances IDC and NC precipitation but suppresses MCS precipitation. Examination of the MCS and IDC initiation locations indicates that irrigation suppresses MAR precipitation that is produced by MCSs initiated in the Great Plains and Midwest (GP) but enhances MAR precipitation from MCSs initiated locally within the region. Irrigation induces a mid-level cyclonic circulation anomaly centering in the Southeast, hindering the eastward propagation and development of MCSs from the GP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Agent-based simulation and child protection systems: Rationale, implementation, and verification

Simulation models are an important tool used in health care and other disciplines to support operational research and decision-making. In the child protection literature, simulation models are an under-utilized source of research evidence. Here, in this paper, we describe the rationale for and the development of an agent-based simulation of a child protection system in the US. Using the investigation, prevention service, and placement histories of 600,000 children served in an urban child welfare system, we walk the reader through the development of a prototype known as OSPEDALE. The governing equations built into OSPEDALE probabilistically simulate the onset of investigations. Then, drawing from empirical survival distributions, the governing equations trace the probability of subsequent interactions with the system (recurrence of maltreatment, service referrals, and placement) conditional on the characteristics of children, their assessed risk level, and prior child protection system involvement. As an initial test of OSPEDALE's utility, we compare empirical admission counts with counts generated from OSPEDALE. Though the verification step is admittedly simple, the comparison shows that OSPEDALE replicates the empirical count of new admissions closely enough to justify further investment in OSPEDALE. Management of public child protection systems is increasingly research evidence-dependent. The emphasis on research evidence as a decision-support tool has elevated evidence acquired through randomized clinical trials. Though important, the evidence from clinical trials represents only one type of research evidence. Properly specified, simulation models are another source of evidence with real-world relevance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Vision–based Robust $\mathcal{H}$ ∞ Gain Scheduling Longitudinal and Lateral Following Controller for Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Curved Roads

Implementing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) in congested and intricate urban traffic scenarios poses significant challenges. To address the frequent stop–and–go motions exhibited by autonomous vehicles (AVs) navigating urban roads with changes in curvature, we propose a vision–based robust $\mathcal{H}$ ∞ adaptive cruise control system (ACC) for longitudinal control, plus a lane keeping assist system (LKAS) for lateral control. For the vision-based ACC, a weighted probability objective function for the vehicle following behavior is formulated. We incorporate $\mathcal{H}$ ∞ performance and gain scheduling techniques to mitigate the impact of uncertainty in visual sensor measurements. Furthermore, the optimal time headway is scheduled based on the velocity to ensure traffic flow efficiency and safety during the vehicle following process. For the LKAS, we introduce a road curvature estimation method that integrates lane and vehicle dynamics information to obtain the lateral and heading offsets. Next, the design criterion of the observer–based robust gain scheduling lateral motion controller is established by linear matrix inequality (LMI). Here, a series of experiments conducted within a camera–in–loop platform validate the proposed method.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Contrasting effects of lake breeze and urbanization on heat stress in Chicago metropolitan area

This study used the latest Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with multi -layer urban canopy models to investigate contrasting effects from urbanization and lake breeze on summer heat stress over the Chicago metropolitan area (CMA). Comparisons between the model and in situ observations show that this coupled modeling system better captures urban locations' diurnal pattern of surface air temperature, skin temperature and relative humidity, with root mean square error reduced from 1.58 to 1.80 degrees C to 1.14-1.31 degrees C, 3.11-3.55 degrees C to 1.81-2.21 degrees C, and 10.73-11.35% to 7.84-8.60%, respectively, compared to WRF without coupling the urban canopy models. Two sensitivity experiments were conducted to isolate the influence of lake breeze and urbanization: one replaced the urban land use with cropland over the CMA, and the other filled all of Lake Michigan with cropland. Three different heat stress indices were computed to assess the uncertainties of heat stress response to changes in air temperature, relative humidity, and wind conditions. Results show that, when the lake has the largest cooling effect on air temperature, it also increases the relative humidity the most, and vice versa for urban warming and drying effects. Urbanization intensifies heat stress at night, and extends the heat caution period by up to 4 h over inland urban grids; the lake breeze relieves heat stress during afternoon (when the heat stress is the worst), and shortens the heat caution period by 1-3 h over inland urban grids and 3-4 h over coastal urban grids. In conclusion, the intensification of heat stress over the CMA due to urbanization is more than four times greater than the reduction from the lake breeze in the late afternoon and evening.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal Variability of Electric System Reliability Metrics

As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.

Singh, Nagendra↗

WORKSHOP ON URBAN SCALE PROCESSES AND THEIR REPRESENTATION IN HIGH SPATIAL RESOLUTION EARTH SYSTEM MODELS

It is essential that numerical models used to study physics, chemistry, and biology affecting the Earth system at regional and global scales represent the effects of urban areas on climate and the effects of changing the climate on urban areas. At the same time, it is essential to develop state of the art, simple and accurate urban models to better understand the relevant processes and also toaddress issues related to urban security against the spectra of chemical, biological and radiological (CBR) hazards. Towards bringing these communities together, a 2.5-day international workshop was held at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the Chicago area on May 22-24, 2019. This workshop brought together national and international experts to develop a roadmap for a better understanding of the issues associated with urban areas and at enhancing the capabilities of regional and global Earth System models (ESMs) in representing the atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, unique aspects of the biosphere and land use, and human dimensions of the urban environment. This workshop was especially important to those developing very high-resolution versions of regional and global models. The workshop also discussed existing datasets, including in situ and satellite observations, and the emerging smart city sensing technologies and their possible use in model development (e.g., the NSF-funded Array of Things network currently operating in Chicago and expanding to other cities).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating precipitation, streamflow, and inundation forecasting skills during extreme weather events: A case study for an urban watershed

Integrated forecasting systems for precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation are of critical importance in mitigating the impacts of destructive floods caused by extreme weather events. However, the skills of streamflow and floodplain inundation forecasts derived from various Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) require a greater level of understanding. In this paper, a set of QPF developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) were used to drive a flood modeling system obtained utilizing offline coupling of a physics-based distributed hydrological model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM), and a hydrodynamic model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). This flood modeling system was used to produce forecasts of streamflow and floodplain inundation maps during three major flood events in the Brays Bayou Watershed (Houston, Texas, USA) for a range of QPF durations (6–72 h). Then, to investigate the effects of increasing QPF durations on the forecasts, the forecasting skills of precipitation, streamflow, and floodplain inundation were quantified. The results show that: 1) QPF skills for more intense and sustained events such as hurricanes and tropical storms are higher than for shorter, less intense events; 2) while QPF and streamflow forecasting skills decrease as QPF durations increase, inundation forecasts under longer QPF durations (24 or 72 h) show higher skills; 3) extending the maximum QPF duration in operational hydrologic modeling from 24 h (under normal circumstances) to 72 h (for extreme events) may increase the skills of long lead time forecasts for large-scale events like Hurricane Harvey.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Native Microalgae-Bacteria Consortia: A Sustainable Approach for Effective Urban Wastewater Bioremediation and Disinfection

Urban wastewater is a significant by-product of human activities. Conventional urban wastewater treatment plants have limitations in their treatment, mainly concerning the low removal efficiency of conventional and emerging contaminants. Discharged wastewater also contains harmful microorganisms, posing risks to public health, especially by spreading antibiotic-resistant bacteria and genes. Therefore, this study assesses the potential of a native microalgae-bacteria system (MBS) for urban wastewater bioremediation and disinfection, targeting NH4+-N and PO43−-P removal, coliform reduction, and antibiotic resistance gene mitigation. The MBS showed promising results, including a high specific growth rate (0.651 ± 0.155 d−1) and a significant average removal rate of NH4+-N and PO43−-P (9.05 ± 1.24 mg L−1 d−1 and 0.79 ± 0.06 mg L−1 d−1, respectively). Microalgae-induced pH increase rapidly reduces coliforms (r > 0.9), including Escherichia coli, within 3 to 6 days. Notably, the prevalence of intI1 and the antibiotic resistance genes sul1 and blaTEM are significantly diminished, presenting the MBS as a sustainable approach for tertiary wastewater treatment to combat eutrophication and reduce waterborne disease risks and antibiotic resistance spread.

Sousa, Joana F.↗