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At least 91 records · Page 5

SWIFT X-RAY TELESCOPE STUDY OF THE BLACK HOLE BINARY MAXI J1659–152: VARIABILITY FROM A TWO COMPONENT ACCRETION FLOW

We present an energy dependent X-ray variability study of the 2010 outburst of the black hole X-ray binary MAXI J1659–152 with the Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT). The broadband noise components and the quasi-periodic oscillations (QPO) observed in the power spectra show a strong and varied energy dependence. Combining Swift XRT data with data from the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer, we report, for the first time, an rms spectrum (fractional rms amplitude as a function of energy) of these components in the 0.5–30 keV energy range. We find that the strength of the low-frequency component (<0.1 Hz) decreases with energy, contrary to the higher frequency components (>0.1 Hz) whose strengths increase with energy. In the context of the propagating fluctuations model for X-ray variability, we suggest that the low-frequency component originates in the accretion disk (which dominates emission below ∼2 keV) and the higher frequency components are formed in the hot flow (which dominates emission above ∼2 keV). As the properties of the QPO suggest that it may have a different driving mechanism, we investigate the Lense–Thirring precession of the hot flow as a candidate model. We also report on the QPO coherence evolution for the first time in the energy band below 2 keV. While there are strong indications that the QPO is less coherent at energies below 2 keV than above 2 keV, the coherence increases with intensity similar to what is observed at energies above 2 keV in other black hole X-ray binaries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact of Weak Agostic Interactions in Nickel Electrocatalysts for Hydrogen Oxidation

To understand how H2 binding and oxidation is influenced by [Ni(PR2NR'2)2]2+ PR2NR'2 catalysts with H2 binding energies close to thermoneutral, two [Ni(PPh2NR'2)2]2+ (R = Me or C14H29) complexes with phenyl substituents on phosphorous and varying alkyl chain lengths on the pendant amine were studied. In the solid state, [Ni(PPh2NMe2)2]2+ exhibits an anagostic interaction between the Ni(II) center and the a-CH3 of the pendant amine, and DFT and variable-temperature 31P NMR experiments suggest than the anagostic interaction persists in solution. The equilibrium constants for H2 addition to these complexes was measured by 31P NMR spectroscopy, affording free energies of H2 addition (?G°H2) of –0.8 kcal mol–1 in benzonitrile and –1.6 to –2.3 kcal mol–1 in THF. The anagostic interaction contributes to the low driving force for H2 binding by stabilizing the four-coordinate Ni(II) species prior to binding of H2. The pseudo-first order rate constants for H2 addition at 1 atm were measured by variable scan rate cyclic voltammetry, and were found to be similar for both complexes, less than 0.2 s–1 in benzonitrile and 3 –6 s–1 in THF. In the presence of exogenous base and H2 , turnover frequencies of electrocatalytic H2 oxidation were measured to be less than 0.2 s–1 in benzonitrile and 4 –9 s–1 in THF. These complexes are slower electrocatalysts for H2 oxidation than previously studied [Ni(PR2NR'2)2]2+ complexes due to a competition between H2 binding and formation of the anagostic interaction. However, the decrease in catalytic rate is accompanied by a beneficial 130 mV decrease in overpotential. This research was supported as part of the Center for Molecular Electrocatalysis, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences. Computational resources were provided at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Mass spectrometry experiments were performed in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, a DOE national scientific user facility sponsored by the DOE’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research and located and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The authors thank Dr. Rosalie Chu for mass spectroscopy analysis. PNNL is operated by Battelle for DOE.

Klug, Christina↗

Review of Wave Energy Converter Power Take-Off Systems, Testing Practices, and Evaluation Metrics: Preprint

While the field of wave energy has been the subject of numerical simulation, scale model testing, and precommercial project testing for decades, wave energy technologies remain in the early stages of development and must continuing proving themselves as a promising modern renewable energy field. One of the difficulties that wave energy systems have been struggling to overcome is the design of highly efficient energy conversion systems that can convert the mechanical power, derived from the oscillation of wave activated bodies, into another useful product. Often the power take-off (PTO) is defined as the single unit responsible for converting mechanical power into another usable form such as electricity, pressurized fluid, compressed air, and others. The PTO, and the entire power conversion chain (PCC), is of great importance as it affects not only how efficient wave power is converted into electricity, but also contributes to the mass, size, structural dynamics, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the wave energy converter (WEC). Unlike wind and solar, there is no industrial standard device, or devices, for wave energy conversion and this diversity is transferred to the PTO system. The majority of current WEC PTO systems incorporate a mechanical or hydraulic drive train, power generator, and an electrical control system. The challenge of WEC PTO designs is designing a mechanical-to-electrical component that can efficiently convert irregular, bi-directional, low frequency and low alternating velocity wave motions. While gross average power levels can be predicted in advance, the variable wave elevation input has to be converted into smooth electrical output and hence usually necessitates some type of energy storage system, such as battery storage, accumulator super capacitors, etc., or other means of compensation such as an array of devices. One of the primary challenges for wave energy converter systems is the fluctuating nature of wave resources, which require WEC components to be designed to handle loads (i.e. torques, forces, and powers) that are many times greater than the average load. This approach requires a much greater PTO capacity than the average power output and indicates a higher cost. In addition, supporting mechanical coupling and or gearing can be added to the PCC to help alleviate the difficulties with transmission and control of fluctuating large loads with low frequencies (indicative of wave forcing) into smaller loads at higher frequencies (optimum for conventional electrical machine design) can quickly increase the complexity of the PCC which could result in a greater number of failure modes and increased maintenance costs. All of the previous points demonstrate how the PTO influences WEC dynamics, reliability, performance and cost which are critical design factors. This paper further explores these topics by providing a review of the state-of-the-art PTO systems currently under development, how these novel PTO systems are tested and derisked prior to precommercial deployment, and the evaluation metrics historically used to differentiate between PTO designs and how they can be improved to support control co-design focused development of wave energy systems.

laboratory testing↗

Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

Wind energy production is expected to be affected by shifts in wind patterns that will accompany climate change. However, many questions remain on the magnitude and character of this impact, especially on regional scales. In this study, clustering is used to group and analyze large-scale wind patterns in California using model simulations from the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Specifically, simulations have been produced that cover historical (1980–2000), mid-century (2030–2050), and end-of-century (2080–2100) time periods. Once clustered, observed changes to wind patterns can be analyzed in terms of both the change in frequency of those clusters and changes to winds within-clusters. Statistically significant capacity factors changes have been found at all five wind plant sites. Further, decomposition of the capacity factor changes into frequency changes and within-cluster changes enables a better understanding of their drivers. A further examination of the synoptic-scale fields associated with each cluster then provides a better understanding of how changes to large-scale meteorological fields are important for driving changes in localized wind speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Synchronous Machine Governor Upgrade

Conventional generation sources play a critical role in the stability and reliability of the electrical grid, particularly as we transition towards more renewable energy sources. To understand and accurately emulate their behavior for optimizing grid operations and ensuring seamless integration with renewable technologies, it is essential to better emulate the grid- and plant-level impacts of conventional generation sources, such as natural gas (NG) driven heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs) and combustion turbines (CTs). Therefore, a governor model is developed in a programmable logic controller (PLC) to investigate the performance of the conventional generator under various dynamic operating conditions and to identify the impact on grid stability in a controlled environment. The governor model aims to enable the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) based emulation of these conventional generation sources using the existing 2 MVA synchronous machine/generator that is driven by a flexible 2.5 MW variable speed drive. This setup will allow us to replicate the dynamic characteristics and response behaviors of NG-driven HRSGs and CTs. The controls for the emulated conventional plants follow the industry standard and are adjustable, ensuring they accurately reflect the operational capabilities and limitations of real-world systems. These controls include load-following capabilities, ramp rates, startup and shutdown sequences, and emissions characteristics. By incorporating these adjustable controls, we aim to capture the nuanced impacts of conventional generation, such as their ability to provide ancillary services like frequency regulation, voltage support, and spinning reserve. In this report, we simulate two types of dynamic operations: grid-connected and islanding. For each dynamic operation, representative starting sequences are tested, including turbine purge, ignition, speed ramping up, generator excitation and synchronizing, and breaker close. The HIL based tests provides insights for field deployment, specifically the high-fidelity governor model provides results to predict the potential stability and reliability risk and suggest possible integration measures (e.g., generation and load balancing, tuning of governor control parameters). Ultimately, this enhanced emulation capability will be integrated into our Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), enabling us to conduct comprehensive studies on the interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources. By better understanding these interactions, we can develop strategies to optimize the overall performance and reliability of the grid. This will support the deployment of advanced grid management techniques, such as demand response, grid-forming inverters, and energy storage systems. The main contributions are summarized as follows: (1) This report introduces a PLC-based governor model for gas turbines. This model accurately simulates the dynamic behavior of conventional generation sources under various operational scenarios; (2) The model is integrated with an HIL testbed that includes a 2.5 MW variable speed drive and a 2 MVA synchronous machine. This setup enables realistic, real-time emulation of conventional power plants, particularly NG driven HRSGs and CTs; (3) The developed model is adaptable to various gas turbine configurations and allows for precise control over parameters such as MW ramp rates. This flexibility makes it a valuable tool for future research and industry collaboration; and (4) By incorporating the model into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems, the report lays the groundwork for future studies on interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources, enhancing the ability to develop advanced grid management strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Four-Dimensional Carbon Cycle of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle, dominating the oceanic uptake of heat and carbon added by anthropogenic activities and modulating atmospheric carbon concentrations in past, present, and future climates. However, the remote and extreme conditions found there make the Southern Ocean perpetually one of the most difficult places on the planet to observe and to model, resulting in significant and persistent uncertainties in our knowledge of the oceanic carbon cycle there. The flow of carbon in the Southern Ocean is traditionally understood using a zonal mean framework, in which the meridional overturning circulation drives the latitudinal variability observed in both air–sea flux and interior ocean carbon concentration. However, recent advances, based largely on expanded observation and modeling capabilities in the region, reveal the importance of processes acting at smaller scales, including basin-scale zonal asymmetries in mixed-layer depth, mesoscale eddies, and high-frequency atmospheric variability. Assessing the current state of knowledge and remaining gaps emphasizes the need to move beyond the zonal mean picture and embrace a four-dimensional understanding of the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spring Dust in Colorado Plateau: Transport Pathways and Interannual Variability Derived From Two Decades of MERRA‐2 Reanalysis

Spring dust storms in the U.S. Southwest significantly impact environmental and human systems, yet their climatological patterns and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using two decades of MERRA-2 reanalysis data and self-organizing map clustering, we identified four distinct dust transport pathways from surrounding and remote deserts for the top 10% of spring dust events impacting the Colorado Plateau: (a) intense southwesterly near-surface transport where eastward upward transport is blocked by topography, (b) substantial remote transport plus weaker surface emissions, (c) moderate southwesterly transport with stronger upper-level transport, and (d) rare northwesterly pattern linked to the Great Basin sources, which accounts for 38%, 14%, 37%, and 11% of total events, respectively. The frequency and intensity of these events strongly correlate with large-scale climate variability, with increased dust events during La Niña. Our results provide a robust framework for improving seasonal dust forecasts and understanding future dust dynamics under climate change.

aerosol transport↗

Turbulence transport modeling of the temporal outer heliosphere

The solar wind can be regarded as a turbulent magnetofluid, evolving in an expanding solar wind and subject to turbulent driving by a variety of in situ sources. Furthermore, the solar wind and the drivers of turbulence are highly time-dependent and change with solar cycle. Turbulence transport models describing low-frequency magnetic and velocity fluctuations in the solar wind have so far neglected solar cycle effects. Here we consider the effects of solar cycle variability on a turbulence transport model developed by Zank et al. This model is appropriate for the solar wind beyond about 1 AU, and extensions have described the steady-state dependence of the magnetic energy density fluctuations, correlation length, and solar wind temperature throughout the outer heliosphere. We find that the temporal solar wind introduces a periodic variability, particularly beyond ∼10 AU, in the magnetic energy density fluctuations, correlation length, and solar wind temperature. The variability is insufficient to account for the full observed variability in these quantities, but we find that the time-dependent solutions trace the steady-state solutions quite well, suggesting that the steady-state models are reasonable first approximations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ocean circulation and climate variability in the northern South China Sea during the Greek Minimum derived from coral Δ 14 C and Sr/Ca records

Ocean circulation transports heat, salt and nutrients, and has profound impacts on the marine environment and climate change. However, the seasonal to centennial variations of the paleocirculation of the South China Sea (SCS) and their driving forces are still unclear due to limited records. Here we reconstructed a high-resolution Δ 14 C record of a coral from Sanya to investigate the seasonal variations of the SCS ocean circulation around 2300 cal yr BP during a grand solar minimum (GSM) period. The seasonal Δ 14 C variability shows the influence of coastal upwelling caused by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) in summer and the effect of water intrusion from the western Pacific Ocean driven by the Kuroshio Intrusion (KI) in winter. Here we compiled the marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (ΔR) records since 2500 cal yr BP, which indicate a gradual decrease of upwelling significantly correlated with the EASM. Comparisons with other climate records suggest that both the EASM and KI may regulate the ocean circulation variability on centennial time scales. As a good index of the sea surface temperature (SST), our Sr/Ca record and spectral analysis results show a low temperature and a low frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events around 2300 cal yr BP. Moreover, the composite coral Sr/Ca-SST and ENSO index records since 2500 cal yr BP show relatively low SST and weak ENSO during GSMs, supporting the modulation of tropical SST and ENSO by solar activity. Our study has provided high-resolution proxy data and revealed the driving forces of ocean circulation and climate change in the SCS at multiple time scales, which should be considered in further modeling work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decadal Spiciness Variability in the Subtropical-Tropical Pacific in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Tropical Pacific decadal variations impact weather and climate around the world and are also connected to variations in the global warming trend. The mechanisms driving these long-term modulations, particularly the role of subsurface ocean dynamics, are still debated. Here, we investigate the dynamics of spiciness (density-compensated temperature and salinity) anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Pacific, which are hypothesized as a possible driving mechanism of decadal climate variability. Based on the analysis of 100 realizations from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE), we demonstrate a coupling between the subtropics and the equatorial Pacific by propagating spiciness anomalies at decadal time scales. The CESM2-LE simulates spiciness variability along a subduction path from the subtropics to the equator with frequency spectra that show the highest power at low frequencies and a power decay proportional to a −4 slope for frequencies greater than 0.01 cycles per months, corresponding to periods smaller than ∼8.5 years. Signals that originate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) dominate and arrive with a larger magnitude at the equator compared to spiciness anomalies from the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Spiciness anomalies from the SH have shorter propagation times and are strengthened along their pathway as stochastic wind stress curl forcing generates anomalous baroclinic ocean pressure gradients. These pressure gradients generate spiciness anomalies via anomalous advection across climatological spiciness gradients in the SH. We conclude that the observed spiciness variance at decadal time scales is consistent with a forcing by stochastic wind variations that are low-pass filtered by ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observed and Imputed Volumetric Soil Water Content Timeseries for the New Mexico Elevation Gradient

Reliable soil water content (SWC) data are essential for understanding dryland ecosystem dynamics, but high-frequency SWC sensors often fail, creating gaps in critical datasets. To address this, we developed a Bayesian mixture model that imputes missing SWC using both linear interpolation and an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2), tested across six AmeriFlux eddy covariance tower sites in the New Mexico Elevation Gradient, demonstrating its effectiveness in reconstructing SWC patterns while providing insights into the factors driving SWC variability. Daily volumetric soil water content (SWC) data are provided as csv-formatted spreadsheets for the six AmeriFlux sites (US-Seg, US-Ses, US-Wjs, US-Mpi, US-Vcp, and US-Vcs). For each site there is an observed SWC file (site_SWC_gapfill.csv) and a file that contains imputed SWC (imputed_SWC_site.csv). The observed SWC files contain temperature corrected sensor values, tower precipitation data, as well as outputs from SOILWAT2 simulations that were used to impute SWC. The imputed files contain the original observed SWC values and the imputed missing SWC values. When SWC was missing from the original data, the missing value was imputed based on the Bayesian imputation mixture model. The posterior mean of all imputed values is reported as "mean_X". When the observed SWC was NOT missing, mean_X = observed SWC value (original data). The standard deviation, 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile for the imputed values are also reported in the imputed files. There are readme text files for each file type explaining the contents of each column.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations of particle number size distributions and new particle formation in six Indian locations

Atmospheric new particle formation (NPF) is a crucial process driving aerosol number concentrations in the atmosphere; it can significantly impact the evolution of atmospheric aerosol and cloud processes. This study analyses at least 1 year of asynchronous particle number size distributions from six different locations in India. We also analyze the frequency of NPF and its contribution to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. We found that the NPF frequency has a considerable seasonal variability. At the measurement sites analyzed in this study, NPF frequently occurs in March–May (pre-monsoon, about 21% of the days) and is the least common in October–November (post-monsoon, about 7% of the days). Considering the NPF events in all locations, the particle formation rate (J SDS ) varied by more than 2 orders of magnitude (0.001–0.6 cm –3 s –1 ) and the growth rate between the smallest detectable size and 25nm (GR SDS-25nm ) by about 3 orders of magnitude (0.2–17.2nm h –1 ). We found that J SDS was higher by nearly 1 order of magnitude during NPF events in urban areas than mountain sites. GR SDS did not show a systematic difference. Our results showed that NPF events could significantly modulate the shape of particle number size distributions and CCN concentrations in India. The contribution of a given NPF event to CCN concentrations was the highest in urban locations (4.3 × 10 3 cm –3 per event and 1.2 × 10 3 cm –3 per event for 50 and 100nm, respectively) as compared to mountain background sites (2.7 × 10 3 cm –3 per event and 1.0 × 10 3 cm –3 per event, respectively). We emphasize that the physical and chemical pathways responsible for NPF and factors that control its contribution to CCN production require in situ field observations using recent advances in aerosol and its precursor gaseous measurement techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Influence of Jupiter on the Earth’s Orbital Cycles

A wealth of Earth-sized exoplanets will be discovered in the coming years, providing a large pool of candidates from which the targets for the search for life beyond the solar system will be chosen. The target selection process will require the leveraging of all available information in order to maximize the robustness of the target list and make the most productive use of follow-up resources. Here, we present the results of a suite of n-body simulations that demonstrate the degree to which the orbital architecture of the solar system impacts the variability of Earth’s orbital elements. By varying the orbit of Jupiter and keeping the initial orbits of the other planets constant, we demonstrate how subtle changes in solar system architecture could alter the Earth’s orbital evolution—a key factor in the Milankovitch cycles that alter the amount and distribution of solar insolation, thereby driving periodic climate change on our planet. The amplitudes and frequencies of Earth’s modern orbital cycles fall in the middle of the range seen in our runs for all parameters considered—neither unusually fast nor slow, neither large nor small. This finding runs counter to the “Rare Earth” hypothesis, which suggests that conditions on Earth are so unusual that life elsewhere is essentially impossible. Our results highlight how dynamical simulations of newly discovered exoplanetary systems could be used as an additional means to assess the potential targets of biosignature searches, and thereby help focus the search for life to the most promising targets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Advanced Drying Process for Lower Manufacturing Cost of Electrodes

For this Vehicle Technologies Incubator/Energy Storage R&D topic, Lambda Technologies teamed with Navitas Systems and proposed a new advanced drying process that promised a 5X reduction in electrode drying time and significant reduction in the cost of large format lithium batteries used in PEV's. The operating principle of the proposed process was to use penetrating radiant energy source Variable Frequency Microwaves (VFM), that are selectively absorbed by the polar water or solvent molecules instantly in the entire volume of the electrode. The solvent molecules are thus driven out of the electrode thickness making the process more efficient and much faster than convective drying method. To evaluate the Advanced Drying Process (ADP) a hybrid prototype system utilizing VFM and hot air flow was designed and fabricated. While VFM drives the solvent out of the electrode thickness, the hot air flow exhausts the solvent vapors out of the chamber. The drying results from this prototype were very encouraging. For water based anodes there is a 5X drying advantage (time & length of oven) in using ADP over standard drying system and for the NMP based cathodes the reduction in drying time has 3X benefit. For energy savings the power consumption measurements were performed to ADP prototype and compared with the convection standard drying oven. The data collected demonstrated over 40% saving in power consumption with ADP as compared to the convection drying systems. The energy savings are one of the operational cost benefits possible with ADP. To further speed up the drying process, the ADP prototype was explored as a booster module before the convection oven and for the electrode material being evaluated it was possible to increase the drying speed by a factor of 4, which could not be accomplished with the standard dryer without surface defects and cracks. The instantaneous penetration of microwave in the entire slurry thickness showed a major advantage in rapid drying of the electrode materials. For the existing electrode materials, the material analysis and cell characterization data from ADP dried electrodes showed equivalent (or slightly better) performance. However, for high loading and thicker electrode materials (for high energy densities) the ADP advantages are more prominent. There was less binder migration, the resistance was lower hence the current capacities and retention of the battery cells were higher. The success of the project has enabled credible communications with commercial end users as well as battery coating line integrators. Goal is to scale ADP up for high volume manufacturing of Li-ion battery electrodes. The implementation of ADP in high volume manufacturing will reduce a high cost production step to bring the overall price of Li-ion batteries down. This will ultimately have a positive impact on the public by making electric and hybrid vehicles more affordable.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Multi-scale planning model for robust urban drought response

Increasingly severe droughts are straining municipal water resources and jeopardizing urban water security, but uncertainty in their duration, frequency, and intensity challenges drought planning and response. We develop the Drought Resilient Interscale Portfolio Planning model (DRIPP) to generate optimal planning responses to urban drought. DRIPP is a generalizable multi-scale framework for optimizing dynamic planning strategies of long-term infrastructure deployment and short-term drought response. It integrates climate and hydrological variability with high-fidelity representations of urban water distribution, available technology options, and demand reduction measures to yield robust and cost-effective water supply portfolios that are location-specific. We apply DRIPP in Santa Barbara, California to assess how least cost water supply portfolios vary under different drought scenarios and identify portfolios that are robust across drought scenarios. In Santa Barbara, we find that drought intensity, not duration or frequency, drives cost increases, reliability risk, and regret of overbuilding infrastructure. Under uncertain drought conditions, a diversified technology portfolio that includes both rapidly deployable, decentralized technologies alongside larger centralized technologies minimizes water supply cost while maintaining high robustness to climate uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Preface to Special Topic: Advances in Radio Frequency Physics in Fusion Plasmas

It has long been recognized that auxiliary plasma heating will be required to achieve the high temperature, high density conditions within a magnetically confined plasma in which a fusion “burn” may be sustained by copious fusion reactions. Consequently, the application of radio and microwave frequency electromagnetic waves to magnetically confined plasma, commonly referred to as RF, has been a major part of the program almost since its inception in the 1950s. These RF waves provide heating, current drive, plasma profile control, and Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) stabilization. Fusion experiments employ electromagnetic radiation in a wide range of frequencies, from tens of MHz to hundreds of GHz. The fusion devices containing the plasma are typically tori, axisymmetric or non, in which the equilibrium magnetic fields are composed of a strong toroidal magnetic field generated by external coils, and a poloidal field created, at least in the symmetric configurations, by currents flowing in the plasma. The waves are excited in the peripheral regions of the plasma, by specially designed launching structures, and subsequently propagate into the core regions, where resonant wave-plasma interactions produce localized heating or other modification of the local equilibrium profiles. Experimental studies coupled with the development of theoretical models and advanced simulation codes over the past 40+ years have led to an unprecedented understanding of the physics of RF heating and current drive in the core of magnetic fusion devices. Nevertheless, there are serious gaps in our knowledge base that continue to have a negative impact on the success of ongoing experiments and that must be resolved as the program progresses to the next generation devices and ultimately to “demo” and “fusion power plant.” A serious gap, at least in the ion cyclotron (IC) range of frequencies and partially in the lower hybrid frequency ranges, is the difficulty in coupling large amount of power to the plasma while minimizing the interaction between the plasma and launching structures. These potentially harmful interactions between the plasma and the vessel and launching structures are challenging: (i) significant and variable loss of power in the edge regions of confined plasmas and surrounding vessel structures adversely affect the core plasma performance and lifetime of a device; (ii) the launcher design is partly “trial and error,” with the consequence that launchers may have to be reconfigured after initial tests in a given device, at an additional cost. Over the broader frequency range, another serious gap is a quantitative lack of understanding of the combined effects of nonlinear wave-plasma processes, energetic particle interactions and non-axisymmetric equilibrium effects on determining the overall efficiency of plasma equilibrium and stability profile control techniques using RF waves. This is complicated by a corresponding lack of predictive understanding of the time evolution of transport and stability processes in fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A quasilinear operator retaining magnetic drift effects in tokamak geometry

The interaction of radio frequency waves with charged particles in a magnetized plasma is usually described by the quasilinear operator that was originally formulated by Kennel & Engelmann ( Phys. Fluids , vol. 9, 1966, pp. 2377–2388). In their formulation the plasma is assumed to be homogenous and embedded in a uniform magnetic field. In tokamak plasmas the Kennel–Engelmann operator does not capture the magnetic drifts of the particles that are inherent to the non-uniform magnetic field. To overcome this deficiency a combined drift and gyrokinetic derivation is employed to derive the quasilinear operator for radio frequency heating and current drive in a tokamak with magnetic drifts retained. The derivation requires retaining the magnetic moment to higher order in both the unperturbed and perturbed kinetic equations. The formal prescription for determining the perturbed distribution function then follows a novel procedure in which two non-resonant terms must be evaluated explicitly. The systematic analysis leads to a diffusion equation that is compact and completely expressed in terms of the drift kinetic variables. The equation is not transit averaged, and satisfies the entropy principle, while retaining the full poloidal angle variation without resorting to Fourier decomposition. As the diffusion equation is in physical variables, it can be implemented in any computational code. In the Kennel–Engelmann formalism, the wave–particle resonant delta function is either for the Landau resonance or the Doppler shifted cyclotron resonance. In the combined gyro and drift kinetic approach, a term related to the magnetic drift modifies the resonance condition.

Physics↗