The Forecasting and Detection of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions by Remote Sensing, and Protection of En-Route Aircraft
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Volcanic Eruptions Remote Sensing↗
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Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea
Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn- and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn-eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Volcanic eruptions on Io
Nine eruption plumes which were observed during the Voyager 1 encounter with Io are discussed. During the Voyager 2 encounter, four months later, eight of the eruptions were still active although the largest became inactive sometime between the two encounters. Plumes range in height from 60 to over 300 km with corresponding ejection velocities of 0.5 to 1.0 km/s and plume sources are located on several plains and consist of fissures or calderas. The shape and brightness distribution together with the pattern of the surface deposition on a plume 3 is simulated by a ballistic model with a constant ejection velocity of 0.5 km/s and ejection angles which vary from 0-55 deg. The distribution of active and recent eruptions is concentrated in the equatorial regions and indicates that volcanic activity is more frequent and intense in the equatorial regions than in the polar regions. Due to the geologic setting of certain plume sources and large reservoirs of volatiles required for the active eruptions, it is concluded that sulfur volcanism rather than silicate volcanism is the most likely driving mechanism for the eruption plumes.
Strom, R. G.↗
Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands
Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improve understanding of the pre-, syn- and post- eruptive behavior. In this work, we observe six infrasound pulses beginning on 21 June at 17:49:55 UTC as well as the main Plinian phase on 21 June at 22:29 UTC. Each pulse is tracked in space and time using lightning and satellite imagery as the plumes drift eastward. Post-eruption visible satellite imagery shows expansion of the island's surface area, an increase in crater size, and a possibly-linked algal bloom south of the island. We use thermal satellite imagery and plume modeling to estimate plume height at 10–12 km asl and 1.5–2 × 10 6 kg/s mass eruption rate. Remote infrasound data provide insight into syn-eruptive changes in eruption intensity. Our analysis illustrates the value of interdisciplinary analyses of remote data to illuminate eruptive processes. However, our inability to identify deformation, pre-eruptive outgassing, and thermal signals, which may reflect the relatively short duration (~12 h) of the eruption and minimal land area around the volcano and/or the character of closed-system eruptions, highlights current limitations in the application of remote sensing for eruption detection and characterization.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Volcanic eruptions on Io - Implications for surface evolution and mass loss
Active volcanism on Io results in a continual resurfacing of the satellite. Analysis of required burial rates to erase impact craters, the mass production in the observed plumes, and the energy requirements for the volcanic activity suggest resurfacing rates of 0.001 to 10 cm/yr in recent geologic time. If this rate is typical of the last 4.5 Gyr, then extensive recycling of the upper crust and mantle must have occurred. The currently estimated loss rate of S, O, and Na from Io into the magnetosphere corresponds to only a small fraction of the resurfacing rate and should not have resulted in either extensive erosion or total depletion of any of the escaping species.
Johnson, T. V.↗
Possible effects on the stratosphere of the 1963 Mt. Agung volcanic eruption.
Previous studies of atmospheric pollution resulting from the 1963 eruption of Mt. Agung have shown that the volcanic dust caused temperature increases in the lower stratosphere over Australia. The present study provides time series of monthly-mean lower stratospheric temperatures for eight tropical stations on both sides of the equator. The data have been smoothed by taking 12-month running means. The results suggest that any effect of the eruption may be impossible to isolate. Some features of the quasi-biennial oscillation in zonal winds and temperatures are pointed out which must be considered in any attempt to explain the peculiarities in the curves of monthly mean temperatures.
Mcinturff, R. M.↗
HCN emissions from the explosive volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines, in June 1991
In June 1991, Mt. Pinatubo explosively erupted magma and overlying rock, with ejecta reaching stratospheric altitudes. The sulphate aerosol burden resulting from the 1991 eruption was still measurable in 1992 and its complete removal took 5-6 years. Here we present new analyses of measurements by the ATMOS instrument on the Atlas-1 Space Shuttle mission and the MkIV balloon interferometer in 1992 that show about 40-50 ppt of unexpected excess HCN in the middle stratosphere. HCN has no stratospheric sources and a lifetime of several years. Multi-year runs with the GEOS-Chem Chemistry-Transport model have been performed in order to derive the most plausible HCN injection amounts. The overall structure of the modeled HCN agrees reasonably well with observations by MkIV and ATMOS. The current best estimate is an emission of about 6 kt of HCN into the stratosphere at an altitude of about 23 km. This compares to a total gas emission in the order of 70-700 Mt, based on an emission of 14 Mt SO2 and an SO2/total gas ratio of 2% - 20%. We will discuss possible sources and formation mechanisms of the HCN. These include abiotic formation during or prior to the eruption and may involve HCN accumulated in the subaerial volcanic-hydrothermal system of Mt. Pinatubo. We present results from thermochemical equilibrium calculations as well as photochemical plume modeling in order to provide plausibility constraints on the source of the HCN.
Armin Kleinboehl↗
Classification of Volcanic Eruptions on Io and Earth Using Low-Resolution Remote Sensing Data
Two bodies in the Solar System exhibit high-temperature active volcanism: Earth and Io. While there are important differences in the eruptions on Earth and Io, in low-spatial-resolution data (corresponding to the bulk of available and foreseeable data of Io), similar styles of effusive and explosive volcanism yield similar thermal flux densities. For example, a square metre of an active pahoehoe flow on Io looks very similar to a square metre of an active pahoehoe flow on Earth. If, from observed thermal emission as a function of wavelength and change in thermal emission with time, the eruption style of an ionian volcano can be constrained, estimates of volumetric fluxes can be made and compared with terrestrial volcanoes using techniques derived for analysing terrestrial remotely-sensed data. In this way we find that ionian volcanoes fundamentally differ from their terrestrial counterparts only in areal extent, with Io volcanoes covering larger areas, with higher volumetric flux. Io outbursts eruptions have enormous implied volumetric fluxes, and may scale with terrestrial flood basalt eruptions. Even with the low-spatial resolution data available it is possible to sometimes constrain and classify eruption style both on Io and Earth from the integrated thermal emission spectrum. Plotting 2 and 5 m fluxes reveals the evolution of individual eruptions of different styles, as well as the relative intensity of eruptions, allowing comparison to be made from individual eruptions on both planets. Analyses like this can be used for interpretation of low-resolution data until the next mission to the jovian system. For a number of Io volcanoes (including Pele, Prometheus, Amirani, Zamama, Culann, Tohil and Tvashtar) we do have high/moderate resolution imagery to aid determination of eruption mode from analyses based only on low spatial-resolution data.
Davies, A. G.↗
A Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flash from the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai Volcanic Eruption
The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai submarine volcano recently resumed activity. Violent eruptions on 2022 January 14th and 15th launched a tall ash plume that produced extremely high lightning rates. Here we report a terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) that was produced by the volcanic lightning and observed from space by the Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM). Observations by radio lightning networks and especially by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) show that the only lightning close enough to produce a TGF detectable by Fermi GBM was from the volcano’s plume. With the observing duration of Fermi, observing a single TGF is consistent with the hypothesis that the volcanic lightning of this eruption produced TGFs at the average rate of thunderstorm lightning. The observation of a strong TGF from space also indicates that the electric field was oriented so as to accelerate electrons upward.
Terrestrial gamma-ray flashes↗
Submarine Volcanic Eruptions and Potential Analogs for Venus
As part of an analysis program to better understand the diversity of volcanic processes on the terrestrial planets, an investigation of the volcanic landforms which exist on the Earth's ocean floor was initiated. In part, this analysis is focused toward gaining a better understanding of submarine volcanic landforms in their own right, but also it is hoped that these features may show similarities to volcanic landforms on Venus, due to the high ambient water (Earth) and atmospheric (Venus) pressures. A series of numerical modelling experiments was performed to investigate the relative importance of such attributes as water pressure and temperature on the eruption process, and to determine the rate of cooling and emplacement of lava flows in the submarine environment. Investigations to date show that the confining water pressure and the buoyancy effects of the surrounding water significantly affect the styles of volcanism on the ocean floor. In the case of Venusian volcanism, confining pressures will not be as great as that found at the ocean's abyssal plains, but nevertheless the general trend toward reducing magma vesiculation will hold true for Venus as well as the ocean floor. Furthermore, other analogs may also be found between submarine volcanism and Venusian activity.
Wilson, L.↗
The Hekla fires - A preliminary report of the 1970 Mount Hekla volcanic eruption. A report from the Smithsonian Insitution Center for Short-Lived Phenomena, 15 June 1970
Describing eruption in region of Mt. Hekla, Iceland and toxic hazards from volcanic ash
Thorarinsson, S.↗
Self-limiting physical and chemical effects in volcanic eruption clouds
One-dimensional aerosol microphysical and photochemical models are used to study the chemistry of stratospheric volcanic clouds. The results indicate that the aerosol microphysical processes of condensation and coagulation produce larger particles as the SO2 injection rate is increased. Larger particles have a smaller optical depth per unit mass and settle out of the stratosphere at a faster rate than smaller ones, restricting the total number of particles in the stratosphere. The microphysical processes moderate the impact of volcanic clouds on the earth's radiation budget and climate, suggesting that volcanic effects may be self limiting. It is noted that the injection of HCl into the stratosphere, which could lead to large ozone changes, is limited by a cold trap effect in which HCl and water vapor condense on ash particles in the rising volcanic plume and fall out as ice.
Pinto, Joseph P.↗
The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption -Part 2: Particle-phase dispersion and concurrent wildfire smoke emissions
Between 27 June and 14 July 2019 aerosol layers were observed by the United Kingdom (UK) Raman lidar network in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The arrival of these aerosol layers in late June caused some concern within the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) as according to dispersion simulations the volcanic plume from the 21 June 2019 eruption of Raikoke was not expected over the UK until early July. Using dispersion simulations from the Met Office Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), and supporting evidence from satellite and in situ aircraft observations, we show that the early arrival of the stratospheric layers was not due to aerosols from the explosive eruption of the Raikoke volcano but due to biomass burning smoke aerosols associated with intense forest fires in Alberta, Canada, that occurred 4 d prior to the Raikoke eruption. We use the observations and model simulations to describe the dispersion of both the volcanic and forest fire aerosol clouds and estimate that the initial Raikoke ash aerosol cloud contained around 15 Tg of volcanic ash and that the forest fires produced around 0.2 Tg of biomass burning aerosol. The operational monitoring of volcanic aerosol clouds is a vital capability in terms of aviation safety and the synergy of NAME dispersion simulations, and lidar data with depolarising capabilities allowed scientists at the Met Office to interpret the various aerosol layers over the UK and attribute the material to their sources. The use of NAME allowed the identification of the observed stratospheric layers that reached the UK on 27 June as biomass burning aerosol, characterised by a particle linear depolarisation ratio of 9 %, whereas with the lidar alone the latter could have been identified as the early arrival of a volcanic ash–sulfate mixed aerosol cloud. In the case under study, given the low concentration estimates, the exact identification of the aerosol layers would have made little substantive difference to the decision-making process within the London VAAC. However, our work shows how the use of dispersion modelling together with multiple observation sources enabled us to create a more complete description of atmospheric aerosol loading.
Martin J Osborne↗
A comparison of volcanic eruption processes on earth, moon, Mars, Io and Venus
The physical, chemical, and atmospheric characteristics of the silicate planets and satellites are surveyed in terms of their effects on the volcanic evolution of the surfaces of these bodies. The equations relating the parameters affecting magma ascent through the crust and eruption are analyzed, and three major types of eruption are characterized: effusive, steady explosive, and unsteady explosive. This analytical framework is then used to predict the nature of volcanic activity on each of the planets and satellites, and the predictions are compared with actual observations. Outstanding problems are discussed, with emphasis on the need for a general model of planetary interior dynamics applicable to bodies with varying degrees of interior viscosity, mantle activity, and lithospheric plate tectonics.
Wilson, L.↗
Volcanic Eruptions on Io: Heat Flow, Resurfacing, and Lava Composition
In this paper we consider the infrared outbursts on Io reported over the last 15 years and examine the implications for resurfacing rates and heat flow using a recent, well observed, eruption sequence. A large change was observed in Io's infrared emission on January 9, 1990 at several different wavelengths. We model this event as due to a large actively erupting lava flow. The flow increased its area at a rate of 1.5 x 10 5 m 2 s -1 and cooled from 1225 K to 555 K over about 2.6 hours. This event is consistent with other Io infrared outbursts and is used in this paper to estimate the more general characteristics of Ionian volcanism, resurfacing, and heat flow. The inferred eruption rate of 3 x 10 5 m 3 s -1 is very high, but is not unprecedented on the Earth.
Io↗
Evidence for Systematic Changes in the Stratospheric Aerosol Size Following Volcanic Eruptions of Diverse Magnitudes Using Space-Based Instruments
An analysis of multiwavelength stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III/ISS instruments is used to demonstrate a coherent relationship between the perturbation in extinction coefficient in an eruption’s main aerosol layer and an apparent change in aerosol size distribution that spans multiple orders of magnitude in the stratospheric impact of an volcanic event. The relationship is measurement-based and does not rely on assumptions about the aerosol size distribution. In this respect, it may be a unique tool to verify the performance of interactive aerosol models used in GCMs and ESMs and may suggest an avenue for improving aerosol extinction coefficient measurements from single channel observations such the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System. We note limitations on this analysis including that the presence of significant amounts of ash in the main aerosol layer may significantly modulate these results.
Larry Thomason↗
Volcanic eruption classification on Io and Earth from low-resolution remote-sensing data
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Earth↗
Evidence for the predictability of changes in the stratosphericaerosol size following volcanic eruptions of diverse magnitudesusing space-based instruments
An analysis of multiwavelength stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III/ISS instruments is used to demonstrate a coherent relationship between the perturbation in extinction coefficient in an eruption’s main aerosol layer and the wavelength dependence of that perturbation. This relationship spans multiple orders of magnitude in the aerosol extinction coefficient of stratospheric impact of volcanic events. The relationship is measurement-based and does not rely on assumptions about the aerosol size distribution. We note limitations on this analysis including that the presence of significant amounts of ash in the main sulfuric acid aerosol layer and other factors may significantly modulate these results. Despite these limitations, the findings suggest an avenue for improving aerosol extinction coefficient measurements from single-channel observations such as the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System as they rely on a prior assumptions about particle size. They may also represent a distinct avenue for the comparison of observations with interactive aerosol models used in global climate models and Earth system models.
Larry W Thomason↗