Forecast-based stochastic optimization for a load powered by wave energy
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Dillon, Trent (ORCID:0000000201036449)↗
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Extreme Wind and Waves in U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas
The Outer Continental Shelf along the U.S. east coast exhibits abundant wind resources and is now a geographic focus for offshore wind deployments. This analysis derives and presents expected extreme wind and wave conditions for the sixteen lease areas that are currently being developed. Using the homogeneous ERA5 reanalysis dataset it is shown that the fifty-year return period wind speed (U50) at 100 m a.s.l. in the lease areas ranges from 29.2 to 39.7 ms -1 . After applying corrections to account for spectral smoothing and averaging period, the associated pseudo-point U50 estimates are 34 to 46 ms -1 . The derived uncertainty in U50 estimates due to different distributional fitting is smaller than the uncertainty associated with under-sampling of the interannual variability in annual maximum wind speeds. It is shown that, in the northern lease areas, annual maximum wind speeds are generally associated with intense extratropical cyclones rather than cyclones of tropical origin. Extreme wave statistics are also presented and indicate that the 50-year return period maximum wave height may substantially exceed 15 m. From this analysis, there is evidence that annual maximum wind speeds and waves frequently derive from the same cyclone source and often occur within a 6 h time interval.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
The Global Technical, Economic, and Feasible Potential of Renewable Electricity
Renewable electricity generation will need to be rapidly scaled to address climate change and other environmental challenges. Doing so effectively will require an understanding of resource availability. We review estimates for renewable electricity of the global technical potential, defined as the amount of electricity that could be produced with current technologies when accounting for geographical and technical limitations as well as conversion efficiencies; economic potential, which also includes cost; and feasible potential, which accounts for societal and environmental constraints. We consider utility-scale and rooftop solar photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, onshore and offshore wind, hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean (wave, tidal, ocean thermal energy conversion, and salinity gradient energy) technologies. We find that the reported technical potential for each energy resource ranges over several orders of magnitude across and often within technologies. Therefore, we also discuss the main factors explaining why authors find such different results. According to this review and on the basis of the most robust studies, we find that technical potentials for utility-scale solar photovoltaic, concentrated solar power, onshore wind, and offshore wind are above 100 PWh/year. Hydropower, geothermal electricity, and ocean thermal energy conversion have technical potentials above 10 PWh/year. Rooftop solar photovoltaic, wave, and tidal have technical potentials above 1 PWh/year. Salinity gradient has a technical potential above 0.1 PWh/year. The literature assessing the global economic potential of renewables, which considers the cost of each renewable resource, shows that the economic potential is higher than current and near-future electricity demand. Fewer studies have calculated the global feasible potential, which considers societal and environmental constraints. While these ranges are useful for assessing the magnitude of available energy sources, they may omit challenges for large-scale renewable portfolios.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Turbulence modeling to aid tidal energy resource characterization in the Western Passage, Maine, USA
Numerical models combined with field measurements are regularly used to characterize tidal energy resources at potential energetic sites. However, most existing works only focus on the tidal hydrodynamic characteristics, and turbulence parameters are often not reported because of the lack of high-quality turbulence measurements and the limitations of numerical models in resolving turbulent eddies. In this study, we used FVCOM - a hydrostatic primitive equation (HPE) model - to characterize the tidal energy resource in the Western Passage, Maine, USA, by taking care of the essential macro-scale turbulence properties. We observed an excellent model performance using the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 Turbulence Model; estimating the spatial and vertical distribution of the turbulent kinetic energy and intensity added a new perspective to the site ranking for tidal energy converter (TEC) deployments. In addition, we also examined the role of channel geometry and bathymetry, such as headlands and underwater sills, in enhancing turbulent eddies around potential TEC siting locations. Ultimately, the detailed analysis of the turbulent flow characteristics has changed the site-ranking results and demonstrated that the regional-scale HPE models could be used for the relative understanding of more or less turbulent sites for a refined resource assessment.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
A comparison of the power potential for surface- and seabed-deployed tidal turbines in the San Juan Archipelago, Salish Sea, WA
The San Juan archipelago lies along the axis of tidal movement between Straits of Juan de Fuca and Strait of Georgia in the Salish Sea. The amplitude of the tidal exchange produces significant tidal currents between the islands, as well as in Rosario and Haro Straits. These are of interest as a future source of electrical power generation, given the islands’ dependence on electricity supply by a subsea cable from the mainland. Here, we evaluate the tidal current energy potential in this region through a re-analysis of measurements collected by the National Ocean Service (NOS) and a high-resolution numerical model. Given the considerable variations in water depth and vertical velocity profiles across candidate tidal energy sites, we consider the trade-offs between tidal turbines deployed from a floating platform and those anchored to the seabed. Measurement re-analysis indicates several locations that could support tidal current power generation by MW-scale turbines with an acceptable balance between turbine size, rated power, and capacity factor. Even for relatively large (30 m) turbine diameters, surface-deployed turbines would be expected to produce up to 30 % more electricity than the same turbine deployed near the seabed due to vertical shear, with this difference increasing for smaller diameter turbines. A benchmark comparison at the measurement locations with the highest power generation potential shows relatively good model fidelity, though, even with relatively high resolution, time-average power density disagreements of ± 50 % persist throughout the water column. Nonetheless, the simulation identifies several locations with power generation potential more than twice as high as locations in the measurement re-analysis. These sites were either not surveyed by NOS or excluded due to data quality issues. Altogether, these results demonstrate the complimentary of models and measurements for tidal energy site assessment and suggest that tidal currents could be an important source of electricity generation in the San Juan archipelago.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
2.2.1.410 - Significant Cost Reduction Potential for Wave Energy Conversion Devices with Variable-Geometry Modules
The Technology Commercialization Fund (TCF) award is built upon NREL's previous research exploring a bottom-fixed variable-geometry oscillating surge wave energy converter (VGOSWEC); however, unlike previous investigations, the VGOSWEC will be raised off the sea floor. Researchers believe that advances in offshore pilings and foundations, such as 3D printing, will provide low cost and easily deployable structures. There are several benefits to designing a raised VGOSWEC such as 1) reducing issues with sediment transport and environmental impacts near shore, 2) less expensive deployment and installation as work boats will not risk grounding in shallow water, and 3) deeper water deployments improve the wave resource.
oscillating surge wave energy converter↗
Ocean Wave Energy Harvester with Oak Ridge Converter
Oceans can provide great potential for the American energy dominance. There is significant potential to utilize marine energy resources. In the United States, the total amount of marine energy available is equivalent to about 57% of the country's total power generation in 2019. Even if a fraction of this technical potential is harnessed, marine energy technologies could play a crucial role in fulfilling the nation's energy requirements. Marine energy resources are spread out geographically, and because more than 50% of the United States' population resides within 50 miles of the coastline, they are well-positioned to power local communities. These resources are also very dependable, making them a viable option for contributing to a consistent, trustworthy energy grid. Due to their predictable daily and seasonal patterns, marine energy resources can be integrated into our energy generation portfolio. On the other hand, ocean environment presents many challenges for cost-effective renewable energy conversion, including optimal control of ocean wave energy. This report presents a novel cost-effective energy conversion technique for ocean wave energy harvesters. The proposed system is simulated by using the Oak Ridge Converter to directly interface ocean wave energy source with the utility grid. The system description and simulation results are presented in detail. The results show that the proposed system is a cost effective and promising technology to reduce the infrastructure cost for ocean wave energy harvesters.
Sutton, Elizabeth [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000078885935)↗
Optimized Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Substructure Design Trends for 10–30 MW Turbines in Low-, Medium-, and High-Severity Wave Environments
Floating offshore wind is a promising renewable energy source, as 60% of the wind resources globally are found at depths requiring floating technologies, it minimizes construction at sea, and provides opportunities for industrialization given a lower site dependency. While floating offshore wind has numerous advantages, a current obstacle is its cost in comparison to more established energy sources. One cost-reduction approach for floating wind is increasing turbine capacities, which minimizes the amount of foundations, moorings, cables, and O&M equipment. This work presents trends in mass-optimized VolturnUS hull designs as turbine capacity increases for various wave environments. To do this, a novel rapid hull optimization framework is presented that employs frequency domain modeling, estimations of statistical extreme responses, industry constructability requirements, and genetic algorithm optimization to generate preliminary mass-optimal VolturnUS hull designs for a given turbine design and set of site conditions. Using this framework, mass-optimized VolturnUS hull designs were generated for 10–30 MW turbines for wave environments of varying severities. These design studies show that scaling up turbine capacities increases the mass efficiency of substructure designs, with decreasing returns, throughout the examined turbine capacity range. Additionally, increased wave environment severity is shown to increase the required mass of a given substructure design.
VolturnUS↗
Non-stationary historical trends in wave energy climate for coastal waters of the United States
The thirty-year non-stationary historical trends in the wave energy climate for United States coastal waters between 1980 and 2009 are investigated using spectral partitioned wave data generated from a WaveWatch III® (version 5.05) hindcast. In addition to historical trends in the omni-directional wave power, frequency and directionally resolved wave power, frequency and directional spreading, and seasonal variability, are examined for the first time, including their geographical distribution. These historical wave energy climate trends are linked to changes to the dominant wave systems and commensurate trends in the historical wind climate. Total wave power trends are consistent with other studies, but the present study identifies regions, and specific frequency and direction bands, where significant wave energy climate changes have occurred. For some regions, changes to wave climate parameters exceeded one-percent annually, more than thirty-percent over the study period. In conclusion, non-stationary trends of this magnitude have significant implications for ocean and coastal engineering projects designed assuming wave climates are stationary and warran
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
WBS 2.1.5.401 - Model Validation and Site Characterization for Early Deployment MHK Sites and Establishment of Wave Classification Scheme
The "Resource Characterization" project delivers the data and tools needed to engineer robust marine renewable energy devices and projects. The project measures resource details at commercially promising sites, runs high resolution models of promising sites and regions, and develops classification schemes that streamline device engineering, project development, and increase investor confidence.
ENGINEERING,TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
CalWave - Open Water Demonstration - Field Testing Content Models (10/21 - 7/22)
Data for the CalWave - Open Water Demonstration, a submerged pressure differential Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Device. Device is moored to the seabed, and the motion of the waves causes the sea level to rise and fall above the device, inducing a pressure differential in the device. The alternating pressure pumps fluid through a system to generate electricity, which is transmitted to shore via bidirectional cables. Documentation and data here includes: Open Water Demonstration, including field testing content models for nearly 10 months of continuous ocean operation, from October 2021 through July 2022.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Modular horizontal pendulum wave energy converter: Exploring feasibility to power ocean observation applications in the U.S. pacific northwest
Abstract Marine renewable energy as a power source for ocean observation applications has the potential to allow longer deployment operations due to the consistent, higher, and denser energy available from this resource. This additionally could encourage deployments in remote locations where maintenance is costly or resource availability is low if dependent on solar power. More importantly, gaps in spatial data could be filled. This paper examines the feasibility of a modular horizontal pendulum wave energy converter to power National Data Buoy Center's Self‐Contained Ocean Observations Payload (SCOOP) off the coast of Washington State, U.S. The effect on power output was studied when the pendulum's radius arm, mass, and power take‐off damping were varied. Results using Matlab toolbox WEC‐Sim revealed positive correlation between radius arm length and mass to power output, where power maximised for optimal damping values. Seasonal trends in power were not significant, where a 20 kg pendulum mass was needed to meet the SCOOP base power requirement of 5 W throughout the year.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Sea-Ice Effects on the Alaskan Wave Climate
This study investigates the uncertainty of wave resource assessments due to sea ice in the nearshore region of Alaska using an innovative approach of combining remotely sensed data and a third-generation phase-averaged wave model. Modeling analysis focused on winter months, when high wave energy is present along with sea ice. This study includes recommendations to improve the accuracy of wave resource assessments and optimize marine and hydrokinetic device siting with consideration of sea-ice effects. Additional recommendations, based on preliminary sea-ice information in Cook Inlet, Alaska, are provided for a trajectory analysis of drifting sea ice and a collision risk assessment of sea ice and tidal turbines. The outcome of this project will provide valuable information about the level of sea-ice impact on the accuracy of wave resource assessments in the Alaska nearshore region, and of sea-ice collision risk with MHK devices and ocean observation systems during winter months when sea ice is present.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Unified Modeling Architecture for Load Management in Extreme Heat: The New York City Case
Integration of renewable resources to meet growing energy demand is becoming a global priority under decarbonization mandates. This study contributes to ongoing efforts on this key subject by assessing the feasibility of using coastal-urban renewable energy resources, namely, offshore wind and rooftop photovoltaic systems, to meet electricity demand of New York City during the intense recent heat wave period of June 2025. A unified modeling framework, based on the urbanized weather research and forecasting model, is used to simulate climate, renewable resources, and energy demand variables. Findings show significant energy load mismatch of approximately 1150 GWh over the month, between the demand and the combined renewable generation outcome. Three storage integration scenarios are analyzed to mitigate the deficits, reducing said deficits by a minimum of approximately 9% over the duration of the month. This study provides a transferable modeling framework tool for evaluating renewable integration in dense urban environments that can be used by grid operators to support grid resilience during extreme heat events.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Numerical wave modeling for operational and survival analyses of wave energy converters at the US Navy Wave Energy Test Site in Hawaii
The US Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) is currently operating three grid-connected berths off Marine Corps Base Hawaii in support of technological development through scaled-model testing and pre-commercial prototyping. The location on the east shore of Oahu is open to year-round wind waves and seasonal north swells as well as severe seas from subtropical systems and hurricanes. We have assembled a spectral wave model system comprising WAVEWATCH III and SWAN on a hierarchy of global, regional, and nearshore computational grids. With wind forcing from global forecast and rean-alysis datasets as well as their regional downscaling, the system produces operational 7-day wave forecasts and a long-term hindcast. The daily forecasts, validated with real-time buoy measurements, facilitate safe deployment, operation, and retrieval of wave energy converters (WECs). The wave hindcast from 1979 to 2017 defines the intra- and inter-annual variations for statistical analysis of sea states and energy resources. Due to limited occurrences of hurricanes in Hawaii waters, their wind forcing is determined parametrically with simulated tracks from climate model downscaling. Finally, systematic analysis of the hindcast and simulation datasets provides significant wave heights from trade winds, swells, subtropical systems, and hurricanes with return periods up to 100 years for WECs survival analysis.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Public perceptions of wave energy development on the west coast of North America: Risks, benefits, and coastal attachment
While solar and wind energy continue to grow as significant sources of renewable energy, a global energy transition away from fossil fuels will require an expanding portfolio of generating resources. Marine renewable energy has the potential to contribute greatly in the coming decades, as the more predictable nature of wave energy can support the resiliency of the power grid and complement solar and inland wind generation. Yet, the broad deployment of marine energy technologies like wave energy will depend on public support, making it critical to identify the relevant factors associated with public attitudes and risk/benefit perceptions. This paper draws on social representations theory to specifically examine perceptions of wave energy on the west coast of North America, a site chosen because of the high suitability for wave energy generation and the fact that one of only three wave energy test sites in the world is under development off the coast of Oregon. Using an online survey in June 2020, we recruited a sample of 2000 respondents from California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We found a majority of respondents held positive attitudes to wave energy, but respondents also had low familiarity – with a quarter of respondents lacking sufficient information to form an opinion. We used logistic regression to identify factors correlated with wave energy attitudes, finding that respondents who were more supportive of wind and solar energy, more optimistic about new technology, and reported more familiarity with wave energy were significantly more likely to have a positive impression of wave energy. Respondents with higher levels of place attachment to coastal areas were more split, as they perceived higher benefits of wave energy – but also higher risks. Our results indicate broad appeal of wave energy on the west coast, but we caution policymakers and developers to not take initial siting processes for granted. As experience has shown for offshore wind, broad appeal does not guarantee a smooth siting process in a local context. Furthermore, the role of place attachment to coastal areas must be taken seriously or risk alienating local communities.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
General Analysis of Data Collected from DOE Lidar Buoy Deployments Off Virginia and New Jersey
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinel lidar buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies. The purpose of these buoys is to collect hub-height winds and supporting meteorological and oceanographic information to facilitate the development of offshore wind energy in the U.S. In general, each buoy is deployed for a year or more at a given location in order to capture at least a full annual cycle of weather conditions. The initial deployment for one buoy was off the coast of Virginia beginning in 2015, and the other buoy was first deployed off the coast of New Jersey beginning in 2016. Over the last two years, PNNL has had an opportunity to analyze the data collected during these first two deployments. This report describes a substantial analysis of data collected by the two lidar buoys operated off the coasts of Virginia and New Jersey. The centerpiece instrument for each buoy as deployed off Virginia and New Jersey is a lidar system, which is designed to measure the horizontal wind vector from approximately 40 m to 200 m above the sea surface with vertical resolution of 40 m. Since the initial deployments, the original lidars have been replaced with more powerful Leosphere 866 v2 systems. The analyses in this report will apply to the original Vindicator systems. In addition to the wind profiles from the lidars, the buoys collect near-surface measurements of wind speed and direction, air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and solar irradiance. Oceanographic variables measured include the two-dimensional wave spectrum, water temperature and conductivity, and ocean current vectors to a depth of 90 m. An assessment of overall data recovery and a basic analysis of the data collected was provided in a previous report This report substantially extends that analysis. The various sections describe the development and application of an inertial measurement unit (IMU) data recovery scheme for the New Jersey deployment; a climatological analysis of winds at hub height and at the surface together with thermodynamic variables measured at the surface for the full deployment periods; an analysis of oceanographic observations describe sea state; the development of a refinement for NOAA’s WaveWatch III model to allow its application to near-shore areas; a basic climatology of ocean currents observed from the buoys; an analysis of observed winds in the framework of Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory; and the development and evaluation of techniques to extract turbulence intensity and turbulence kinetic energy from the lidars. The analyses contained in this report provide a great deal of new information about offshore conditions on the U.S. East Coast. In addition, the experience gained will inform both configurations and analysis of data from future deployments of these lidar buoy systems.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Next-Generation Marine Energy Software Needs Assessment
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office’s (WPTO) initial investment in marine energy software was driven by needs identified over a decade ago. WPTO-funded research was first launched because of a U.S. congressional mandate that called for the DOE to officially research marine energy technologies, which also established the DOE WPTO in 2008. A congressional mandate requested the WPTO to evaluate a variety of marine energy devices, establish baseline levelized cost of energy estimates, and provide an overall report to Congress. This congressional mandate led to the Reference Model Project (RMP), for which WPTO funded a national multi-laboratory team to develop these reference models, based on state-of-the-art designs of six marine energy converter archetypes that consisted of three current energy converters and three wave energy converters (WEC). Each device was designed to operate for a specific marine resource, thus allowing the devices to serve as reference models for future studies. The RMP congressional report cited the need for improved marine energy software to handle a variety of device designs, as well as a need to standardize performance outputs. Without validated software packages and established metrics, information presented to the WPTO by technology developers could be incorrect or inaccurate and result in misleading conclusions. The recommendation to coordinate WPTO investment in software for numerical modeling and analysis was given a high priority because it would directly fill needs at the time, and focused funding would amplify impact. By sponsoring software development, WPTO would provide industry developers, university researchers, and national laboratories software that could be used, customized, and advanced, thus supporting the overall advancement of marine energy.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗