Wildfire Burn Severity and Recovery Effects on Microbial BVOC Emissions
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Bennett, Haley Lynn↗
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DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE TOOLS TO LIMIT THE IMPACT OF WILDFIRES AND URBAN FIRES: A STUDY OF COMBUSTION AND EMISSIONS USING SEMI-DETAILED KINETIC MODELS
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Energy - Biomass↗
Airborne Infrared Spectroscopy of 1994 Western Wildfires
In the summer of 1994, the 0.07cm -1 resolution infrared Airborne Emission Spectrometer (AES) acquired spectral data over two wildfires, one in central Oregon on August 3 and the other near San Luis Obispo, California on August 15. The spectrometer was on board a NASA DC-8 research aircraft, flying at an altitude of 12 km.
Spectroscopy↗
Interannual variability and climatic sensitivity of global wildfire activity
Not Available
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Ensemble-Based Deep Learning for Estimating PM2.5 over California with Multisource Big Data Including Wildfire Smoke
Estimating PM2.5 concentrations and their prediction uncertainties at a high spatiotemporal resolution is important for air pollution health effect studies. This is particularly challenging for California, which has high variability in natural (e.g. wildfires, dust) and anthropogenic emissions, meteorology, topography (e.g. desert surfaces, mountains, snow cover) and land use.
air quality↗
Predicting Emission Source Terms in a Reduced-Order Fire Spread Model—Part 1: Particulate Emissions
A simple, easy-to-evaluate, surrogate model was developed for predicting the particle emission source term in wildfire simulations. In creating this model, we conceptualized wildfire as a series of flamelets, and using this concept of flamelets, we developed a one-dimensional model to represent the structure of these flamelets which then could be used to simulate the evolution of a single flamelet. A previously developed soot model was executed within this flamelet simulation which could produce a particle size distribution. Executing this flamelet simulation 1200 times with varying conditions created a data set of emitted particle size distributions to which simple rational equations could be tuned to predict a particle emission factor, mean particle size, and standard deviation of particle sizes. These surrogate models (the rational equation) were implemented into a reduced-order fire spread model, QUIC-Fire. Using QUIC-Fire, an ensemble of simulations were executed for grassland fires, southeast U.S. conifer forests, and western mountain conifer forests. Resulting emission factors from this ensemble were compared against field data for these fire classes with promising results. Also shown is a predicted averaged resulting particle size distribution with the bulk of particles produced to be on the order of 1 μm in size.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluating Basin-Scale Forest Adaptation Scenarios: Wildfire, Streamflow, Biomass, and Economic Recovery Synergies and Trade-Offs
Active forest management is applied in many parts of the western United States to reduce wildfire severity, mitigate vulnerability to drought and bark beetle mortality, and more recently, to increase snow retention and late-season streamflow. A rapidly warming climate accelerates the need for these restorative treatments, but the treatment priority among forest patches varies considerably. We simulated four treatment scenarios across the 3,450 km 2 Wenatchee River basin in eastern Washington, United States. We used a decision support tool (DST) to assess trade-offs and synergies within and among treatments on wildfire risk and smoke emissions, water yield and snow retention, biomass production, and economic return. Treatment scenarios emphasized prescribed burning ( BurnOnly ), biomass production ( MaxBiomass ), gap-based thinning to optimize water yield ( IdealWater ), and a principle-based restoration scenario ( RA1 ). Fire hazard, smoke emissions, and biomass production metrics were evaluated across scenarios using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and water yields were modeled using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. Simulations were summarized to both patch- (10 1 –10 2 ha) and subwatershed- (10 3 –10 4 ha) scales, and treatment effects were evaluated against an untreated baseline landscape. We used logic models to rank effect sizes by scenario across metrics along a continuum between −1 (no or weak effect) to +1 (large effect). All treatments produced benefits across one or more ecosystem services and led to synergistic benefits to water yield and wildfire hazard reduction. Tradeoffs among resource benefits were clear in wilderness where reliance on prescribed burning without mechanical treatment increased costs and eliminated the potential for biomass recovery. The BurnOnly scenario improved fire risk metrics and streamflow, but effect sizes were lower compared to other treatments. IdealWater showed the strongest benefits overall, demonstrating the ability to capture multiple resource benefits through spatially explicit thinning. Our study provides a framework for integrating strategic and tactical models that evaluate tradeoffs and synergies gained through varied management approaches. We demonstrate the utility of decision support modeling to enhance management synergies across large landscapes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models
Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.
Rouhette, Theo↗
Climate and air pollution impacts of generating biopower from forest management residues in California
California faces crisis conditions on its forested landscapes. A century of aggressive logging and fire suppression in combination with conditions exacerbated by climate change have created an ongoing ecological, economic, and public health emergency. Between commercial harvests on California’s working forestlands and the increasing number of acres the state treats each year for fire risk reduction and carbon sequestration, California forests generate millions of tons of woody residues annually—residues that are typically left or burned in the field. State policymakers have turned to biomass electricity generation as a key market for woody biomass in the hope that it can support sustainable forest management activities while also providing low-carbon renewable electricity. However, open questions surrounding the climate and air pollution performance of electricity generation from woody biomass have made it difficult to determine how best to manage the risks and opportunities posed by forest residues. The California Biomass Residue Emissions Characterization (C-BREC) model offers a spatially-explicit life cycle assessment framework to rigorously and transparently establish the climate and air pollution impacts of biopower from forest residues in California under current conditions. The C-BREC model characterizes the variable emissions from different biomass supply chains as well as the counterfactual emissions from prescribed burn, wildfire, and decay avoided by residue mobilization. We find that the life cycle ‘carbon footprint’ of biopower from woody residues generated by recent forest treatments in California ranges widely—from comparable with solar photovoltaic on the low end to comparable with natural gas on the high end. This variation stems largely from the heterogeneity in the fire and decay conditions these residues would encounter if left in the field, with utilization of residue that would otherwise have been burned in place offering the best climate and air quality performance. California’s energy and forest management policies should account for this variation to ensure desired climate benefits are achieved.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Mitigating Satellite-Based Fire Sampling Limitations in Deriving Biomass Burning Emission Rates: Application to WRF-Chem Model over the Northern sub-Saharan African Region
Largely used in several independent estimates of fire emissions, fire products based on MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting satellites have a number of inherent limitations, including (a) inability to detect fires below clouds, (b) significant decrease of detection sensitivity at the edge of scan where pixel sizes are much larger than at nadir, and (c) gaps between adjacent swaths in tropical regions. To remedy these limitations, an empirical method is developed here and applied to correct fire emission estimates based on MODIS pixel level fire radiative power measurements and emission coefficients from the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) biomass burning emission inventory. The analysis was performed for January 2010 over the northern sub-Saharan African region. Simulations from WRF-Chem model using original and adjusted emissions are compared with the aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from MODIS and AERONET as well as aerosol vertical profile from CALIOP data. The comparison confirmed an 30-50% improvement in the model simulation performance (in terms of correlation, bias, and spatial pattern of AOD with respect to observations) by the adjusted emissions that not only increases the original emission amount by a factor of two but also results in the spatially continuous estimates of instantaneous fire emissions at daily time scales. Such improvement cannot be achieved by simply scaling the original emission across the study domain. Even with this improvement, a factor of two underestimations still exists in the modeled AOD, which is within the current global fire emissions uncertainty envelope. Plain Language Summary Polar-orbiting satellites sensors, such as MODIS, have limitations in detecting fires under clouds or when viewing angles are large or in the gaps among satellites' different ground swaths. Here we developed an empirical method to mitigate the effect of these limitations in fire emission estimate. The method is applied to a fire emission inventory (FEER) based on MODIS. We show that, with our method, the adjusted emission inventory improves WRF-Chem simulation of smoke transport and distribution.
emissions properties↗
UAS Payload Design for In-Situ Smoke Plume Sensing
To aid in the detection of harmful aerosols and trace gases emitted in wildfires and prescribed burns, we are designing a smoke-specific payload which can be flown on the Black Swift S2™ Uncrewed Aerial System (UAS) platform. The payload will be custom and mounted within the nosecone, equipped with a trace gas sensor suite and particle spectrometer for characterization of wildfire and prescribed burn emissions. This data will aid in the improvement of HYSPLIT3 modeling to make more informed decisions regarding prescribed burns, particularly for mountain valleys in the Pacific Northwest. The trace gas suite will be composed of 8 low-cost trace gas sensors (CH4, CO2, CO, HCN, NO2, NO, O3, and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)). Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer (POPS) measures particle size range between 0.14 to 3 µm, which is crucial for assessing public health impact, air quality, and visibility.
Henry Miller↗
Airborne Infrared Spectroscopy of 1994 Western Wildfires
In the summer of 1994 the 0.07/ cm resolution infrared Airborne Emission Spectrometer (AES) acquired spectral data over two wildfires, one in central Oregon on August 3 and the other near San Luis Obispo, California, on August 15. The spectrometer was on board a NASA DC-8 research aircraft, flying at an altitude of 12 km. The spectra from both fires clearly show features due to water vapor, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, ammonia, methanol, formic acid, and ethylene at significantly higher abundance and temperature than observed in downlooking spectra of normal atmospheric and ground conditions. Column densities are derived for several species, and molar ratios are compared with previous biomass fire measurements. We believe that this is the first time such data have been acquired by airborne spectral remote sensing.
Worden, Helen↗
Machine learning-based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire
Reliable projections of wildfire and associated socioeconomic risks are crucial for the development of efficient and effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. The lack of or limited observational constraints for modeling outputs impairs the credibility of wildfire projections. Here, we present a machine learning framework to constrain the future fire carbon emissions simulated by 13 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), using historical, observed joint states of fire-relevant variables. During the twenty-first century, the observation-constrained ensemble indicates a weaker increase in global fire carbon emissions but higher increase in global wildfire exposure in population, gross domestic production, and agricultural area, compared with the default ensemble. Such elevated socioeconomic risks are primarily caused by the compound regional enhancement of future wildfire activity and socioeconomic development in the western and central African countries, necessitating an emergent strategic preparedness to wildfires in these countries.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The good, the bad, and the future: Systematic review identifies best use of biomass to meet air quality and climate policies in California
Abstract California has large and diverse biomass resources and provides a pertinent example of how biomass use is changing and needs to change, in the face of climate mitigation policies. As in other areas of the world, California needs to optimize its use of biomass and waste to meet environmental and socioeconomic objectives. We used a systematic review to assess biomass use pathways in California and the associated impacts on climate and air quality. Biomass uses included the production of renewable fuels, electricity, biochar, compost, and other marketable products. For those biomass use pathways recently developed, information is available on the effects—usually beneficial—on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and there is some, but less, published information on the effects on criteria pollutants. Our review identifies 34 biomass use pathways with beneficial impacts on either GHG or pollutant emissions, or both—the “good.” These included combustion of forest biomass for power and conversion of livestock‐associated biomass to biogas by anaerobic digestion. The review identified 13 biomass use pathways with adverse impacts on GHG emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, or both—the “bad.” Wildfires are an example of one out of eight pathways which were found to be bad for both climate and air quality, while only two biomass use pathways reduced GHG emissions relative to an identified counterfactual but had adverse air quality impacts. Issues of high interest for the “future” included land management to reduce fire risk, future policies for the dairy industries, and full life‐cycle analysis of biomass production and use.
Agriculture↗
Incorporating an Interactive Fire Plume-Rise Model in the DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 (E3SMv1) and Examining Aerosol Radiative Effect
The vertical distribution of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) is important in regulating their impacts on weather and climate. The plume-rise process affects the injection height of BBA and interacts with the air parcel lifting and cloud processes. However, these processes are not represented in most global climate models. In this study, we replaced the fixed vertical profiles of monthly BBA emissions in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) with an interactive fire plume-rise model. The vertical distribution of BBA emissions was calculated as a function of ambient thermodynamic conditions from the host E3SMv1, with distributions of fire sizes and sensible heat fluxes derived from the observations. The maximum fire radiative power (FRP) technique was used to determine the fire size. Scaling-FRP technique is used to calculate the wildfire heat release. Daily BBA emission, superimposed with a fire diurnal cycle retrieved from the satellite observation, was included in model simulations. The model shows improved agreement with satellite retrievals and in situ measurement during the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Wildfire Experiment for Cloud chemistry, Aerosol absorption, and Nitrogen campaign. The model-observation comparison demonstrates the importance of the plume-rise model and fire diurnal cycle assumption in determining the BBA fields. We also find that E3SMv1 with new features produces a larger carbonaceous aerosol burden, leading to 0.13 W m –2 warming at the top of atmosphere compared to the default E3SMv1. This highlights the importance of accurately representing the BBA injection height and indicates a no-linear nature in the BBA-induced radiative effect.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Assessing fire emissions from tropical savanna and forests of central Brazil
Wildfires in tropical forest and savanna are a strong source of trace gas and particulate emissions to the atmosphere, but estimates of the continental-scale impacts are limited by large uncertainties in the rates of fire occurrence and biomass combustion. Satellite-based remote sensing offers promise for characterizing fire physical properties and impacts on the environment, but currently available sensors saturate over high-radiance targets and provide only indications of regions and times at which fires are extensive and their areal rate of growing as recorded in ash layers. Here we describe an approach combining satellite- and aircraft-based remote sensing with in situ measurements of smoke to estimate emissions from central Brazil. These estimates will improve global accounting of radiation-absorbing gases and particulates that may be contributing to climate change and will provide strategic data for fire management.
Riggan, Philip J.↗
In Situ Measurements of Ammonia In Plumes Emitted From Wildfires And Agricultural Fires in the US
Emissions of trace gases and particles from fires have a major impact on climate, visibility, air quality, and public health. Biomass burning emissions include reactive nitrogen gases, among which ammonia (NH3) plays a prominent role. NH3 is a short-lived gas that acts as precursor for secondary inorganic aerosols. This process is still poorly constrained in downwind fire plumes. In summer 2019, NASA and NOAA carried out the joint airborne FIREX-AQ (Fire Influence on Regional to global Environments and Air Quality) mission over the continental US to sample plumes from wildfires and agricultural fires. On board the NASA DC-8, we used a modified PTR-ToF-MS instrument for measuring NH3 in situ and at high time resolution. Over the course of the mission, we collected a large set of NH3 data in plumes emitted from fires differing in fuel type and burning stage. Herein, we will present the measured NH3 emissions ratios and factors, compare them with the literature, and investigate the dependence of NH3 emissions on fuel type and burning conditions.
ammonia↗
Rapid evolution of aerosol particles and their optical properties downwind of wildfires in the western US
Abstract. During the first phase of the Biomass Burn Operational Project (BBOP) field campaign, conducted in the Pacific Northwest, the DOE G-1 aircraft was used to follow the time evolution of wildfire smoke from near the point of emission to locations 2–3.5 h downwind. In nine flights we made repeated transects of wildfire plumes at varying downwind distances and could thereby follow the plume's time evolution. On average there was little change in dilution-normalized aerosol mass concentration as a function of downwind distance. This consistency hides a dynamic system in which primary aerosol particles are evaporating and secondary ones condensing. Organic aerosol is oxidized as a result. On all transects more than 90 % of aerosol is organic. In freshly emitted smoke aerosol, NH4+ is approximately equivalent to NO3. After 2 h of daytime aging, NH4+ increased and is approximately equivalent to the sum of Cl, SO42, and NO3. Particle size increased with downwind distance, causing particles to be more efficient scatters. Averaged over nine flights, mass scattering efficiency (MSE) increased in ∼ 2 h by 56 % and doubled in one flight. Mechanisms for redistributing mass from small to large particles are discussed. Coagulation is effective at moving aerosol from the Aitken to accumulation modes but yields only a minor increase in MSE. As absorption remained nearly constant with age, the time evolution of single scatter albedo was controlled by age-dependent scattering. Near-fire aerosol had a single scatter albedo (SSA) of 0.8–0.9. After 1 to 2 h of aging SSAs were typically 0.9 and greater. Assuming global-average surface and atmospheric conditions, the observed age dependence in SSA would change the direct radiative effect of a wildfire plume from near zero near the fire to a cooling effect downwind.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗