Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “wildfire emissions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Shortwave absorption by wildfire smoke dominated by dark brown carbon

Abstract Wildfires emit large amounts of black carbon and light-absorbing organic carbon, known as brown carbon, into the atmosphere. These particles perturb Earth’s radiation budget through absorption of incoming shortwave radiation. It is generally thought that brown carbon loses its absorptivity after emission in the atmosphere due to sunlight-driven photochemical bleaching. Consequently, the atmospheric warming effect exerted by brown carbon remains highly variable and poorly represented in climate models compared with that of the relatively nonreactive black carbon. Given that wildfires are predicted to increase globally in the coming decades, it is increasingly important to quantify these radiative impacts. Here we present measurements of ensemble-scale and particle-scale shortwave absorption in smoke plumes from wildfires in the western United States. We find that a type of dark brown carbon contributes three-quarters of the short visible light absorption and half of the long visible light absorption. This strongly absorbing organic aerosol species is water insoluble, resists daytime photobleaching and increases in absorptivity with night-time atmospheric processing. Our findings suggest that parameterizations of brown carbon in climate models need to be revised to improve the estimation of smoke aerosol radiative forcing and associated warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fire Predictions and Impacts

Megafires are increasing in the Western US due to sustained drought and prolonged fire exclusion. LANL uniquely positioned to lead in both modeling (fine scales, coupled fire-atmosphere, 3D fuels) and observations (CAFÉ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Mineralogy–Based Anthropogenic Combustion–Iron Emission Inventory

Atmospheric supply of iron can modulate ocean biogeochemistry, due to its key role in global nitrogen and carbon cycles. Current estimates predict up to 20% of global ocean net primary productivity depends on an atmospheric iron source. Using a technology–based methodology, we revise total and soluble anthropogenic iron emissions and resolve iron into its mineral components, which allows modeling mineral–specific atmospheric reactions. We compare different methodologies for representing anthropogenic iron solubility: measured in mild and strong leaches and estimated using a mineralogy basis and identify the emissions that are most affected by such assumptions. The inclusion of metal smelting as an iron source increases iron emissions by up to 10 times higher in the fine aerosol fraction (smaller than 1 μm) than most previous inventories. Different solubility assumptions alter anthropogenic soluble iron emissions and deposition by a factor of 20 and 10, respectively. Using solubilities measured in mild leaches and calculated by mineralogy give 20–30 Gg/yr anthropogenic emissions and 40–50 Gg/yr deposition, while those measured in strong leaches give 80–440 Gg/yr emissions and 200–450 Gg/yr deposition. Here, this range of anthropogenic soluble iron deposition leads to global soluble iron deposition of 1,900–2,300 Gg/yr when dust, wildfires, and atmospheric processing are included, indicating such assumptions can affect global soluble iron supply by about 30%. In regions where marine primary productivity is iron limited, anthropogenic combustion–iron contributes up to half of the atmospheric soluble iron flux to the North Pacific Ocean but supplies less than 5% to the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a mineralogy-based anthropogenic combustion-iron emission inventory

Atmospheric supply of iron can modulate ocean biogeochemistry, due to its key role in global nitrogen and carbon cycles. Using a detailed technology-based methodology we revise total and soluble anthropogenic iron emissions and resolve iron into its mineral components, which allows modeling mineral-specific atmospheric reactions. The inclusion of metal smelting as an iron source, increases fine iron aerosol emissions (smaller than 1 µm) compared with most previous inventories. Different assumptions about solubility lead to estimates of 40-450 Gg/year deposition of soluble anthropogenic iron. When combined with dust and wildfires, the global total anthropogenic soluble iron deposition is 1900-2300 Gg/yr, so assumptions in anthropogenic inventories can affect estimates of global soluble iron supply by about 30%. In regions where marine primary productivity is iron-limited, anthropogenic combustion-iron contributes up to half of the atmospheric soluble iron flux to North Pacific Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aircraft Measurements from a U.S. Western Wildfire Demonstrating Day and Night Differences in the Chemical Composition and Optical Properties of Biomass Burning Aerosols and Their Atmospheric Evolution

The composition and transformations of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) have been measured onboard the NOAA Twin Otter research aircraft during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field study. Here, we analyze real-time aerosol mass spectrometry measurements across three flights during the afternoon, late afternoon, and night of August 28, 2019, for one midsized wildfire. Analysis of several metrics showed that the aerosol composition and optical properties varied depending on the burning conditions at the fire zone and the time of day the BBA was emitted, with substantial variations in the available sunlight. The total aerosol mass loadings were dominated by organic components with a much smaller contribution from inorganic species. A gradual buildup of organic material was observed during the afternoon as the plume aged, indicating the condensation of photochemically formed low-volatility oxidized organic compounds. Highly hygroscopic ammonium nitrate was the main inorganic component, suggesting potential water content in BBA particles and the likelihood of their aqueous-phase reactivity. Depletions of particle-phase NO 3 – and Cl – relative to carbon monoxide were observed in the late afternoon and nighttime plumes, respectively, aligning with known gas-particle partitioning thermodynamics and the heterogeneous chemistry of dissolved nitrate and chloride. The wavelength-dependent light absorption by aerosol species was higher for the plume sampled at night and showed no significant changes with plume age, despite observed trends in composition and mass downwind. These differences in particle composition and optical properties demonstrate that the processes involved in BBA aging are not uniform for the same wildfire over the course of the day and depend highly on when the BBA was emitted, as well as the burning phase at the emissions source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78 ± 0.29 W m -2 , which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; -0.70 ± 0.20 W m -2 ). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ΔT is -0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ΔT) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ΔT) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct Air Capture and Utilization System (DACUS): FEED Study of CarbonCapture Inc. DAC and CarbonCure Utilization Technologies Using United States Steel’s Gary Works Plant Waste Heat

The effects of climate change are drastically perceived through the alarming rates of severe events such as flooding, hurricanes, wildfires, global temperature rise, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification etc., which has prompted the nations across the globe to control & reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, by massive adoption of electric vehicles, switching to renewal energy sources and promoting sustainable green products. However, recent climate studies have shown that such efforts will not be enough to keep the global temperature rising under 1.5° Celsius by the year 2050, which lead to the development of multiple Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies. A DAC system extracts CO2 directly from the atmosphere, which is either stored underground for long term or utilized in other processes. The DACUS proposed at U.S. Steel Corporation’s Gary Works Plant in Gary, Indiana, will include an innovative DAC technology from CarbonCapture Inc. (CCI), which will be collocated and powered by waste heat from the steel plant to capture CO2 from ambient air, and CarbonCure CO2 utilization technology- which is a commercial technology that is already installed and in use by early adopters in more than 150 concrete mixing plants across North America and Asia. The University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign spearheaded this Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) study project, which was funded by US Department of Energy (DOE), aimed at designing a state-of-the art DACU system that can remove minimum of 5,000 tonne/year net CO2 from air (based on cradle-to-gate LCA) and converting the captured CO2 into low carbon intensity products. The off takers of the low Carbon product produced by the DACUS have also been identified near the steel plant in the Indiana, Illinois & Wisconsin Region. This creates a full CO2 value chain and provides a means to assess the impact of this holistic approach on job creation, regional economic impact, and environmental justice. DACUS is a promising new technology for reducing greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Operation costs are minimized by locating CCI’s innovative DAC collector at United States Steel's Gary Works site where waste heat is utilized. Carbon emissions are minimized in CO2 transportation. The captured CO2 will be permanently sequestered in concrete used as construction material. This DOE funded FEED study demonstrates a full CO2 value chain for a DACU system, supported by an industrial facility. If this project were constructed, it would have a very positive and lasting impact on both the environment and the community.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Peatland fires in Alaska will double by the end of the century

During recent summers, warm and dry conditions have increased the occurrence of wildfires and potentially peat-fires across Alaska. Limitations in resolving the fine-scale distribution of peatlands and climate observations have constrained our ability to accurately predict peat-fire dynamics. Using a new high-resolution peatland map of Alaska, we evaluated the climate and environmental controls of past and future peat-fire activity. Ensemble machine learning models identified reduced soil moisture, higher temperatures, and evapotranspiration as key predictors of annual total burned peatland area (tenfold CV R 2 = 0.62, RMSE = 221.1 km 2 ). By the end of the twenty-first century, models forced with climate datasets from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 emission scenarios project a statewide doubling of burned peatlands (increasing 61–121%), with regional increases ranging from 25–165% in polar, 61–95% in boreal, and 102–106% in maritime ecoregions. These projections indicate that wildfires will progressively encroach further into organic-rich moist and wet peaty soils, potentially amplifying soil carbon release across Alaska.

climate-change ecology↗

America Resilient Climate Conference

On April 14, 2021, scientists, policymakers, and other interested parties from research institutes, academia, and other organizations gathered together virtually at the America Resilient Climate Conference to discuss one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century: building resilience to climate change. Climate change affects the security and health of all Americans. Coastal areas are enduring more frequent and severe flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge; western states and Alaska have experienced increasingly devastating wildfires, driven in part by hotter, drier, and longer fire seasons; and communities across the nation have suffered through extreme precipitation events and heat waves. Even if emissions are reduced aggressively in the near future, the world—and the United States—will continue to feel the impacts of climate change for decades to come, due to the continued accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Consequently, it is essential to act now to protect natural and human assets from the gradual—as well as extreme—impacts of a changing climate. To build resilient communities, leaders and community members need science-based information about the potential impacts climate change will have decades into the future and for specific regions. Therefore, it is essential to develop high-resolution climate models that can project both various climate impacts and the interactions between earth system variables and humans down to regional and local scales. Collecting and curating data for such models and their computational requirements poses large challenges. In the future, artificial intelligence will be needed to increase their accuracy and reduce associated uncertainties. The investments in Earth system science and artificial intelligence made by the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal entities will be essential in addressing these challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AttentionFire_v1.0: interpretable machine learning fire model for burned-area predictions over tropics

Abstract. African and South American (ASA) wildfires account for more than 70 % of global burned areas and have strong connection to local climate for sub-seasonal to seasonal wildfire dynamics. However, representation of the wildfire–climate relationship remains challenging due to spatiotemporally heterogenous responses of wildfires to climate variability and human influences. Here, we developed an interpretable machine learning (ML) fire model (AttentionFire_v1.0) to resolve the complex controls of climate and human activities on burned areas and to better predict burned areas over ASA regions. Our ML fire model substantially improved predictability of burned areas for both spatial and temporal dynamics compared with five commonly used machine learning models. More importantly, the model revealed strong time-lagged control from climate wetness on the burned areas. The model also predicted that, under a high-emission future climate scenario, the recently observed declines in burned area will reverse in South America in the near future due to climate changes. Our study provides a reliable and interpretable fire model and highlights the importance of lagged wildfire–climate relationships in historical and future predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but its future changes and related extremes remain unclear. Here, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that under a high-emission scenario, BSISO convection will shift eastward by ~3° (~300 km) in 2065–2099, driven by moisture profile changes associated with sea surface temperature warming over central-to-eastern Pacific. This eastward-shifted BSISO convection, along with a northward expansion of the westerly jet, strengthens the BSISO teleconnections that extend into broader areas of North America. These changes will increase the BSISO-related heatwave risks by 23% and wildfire risks by 3.5 times over northern North America compared to present-day conditions. The findings underscore the amplification of BSISO’s influence on extreme risks of extreme weather, emphasizing the need for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climates.

BSISO teleconnection↗

Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US

Abstract Burned areas in the western US have increased ten‐fold since 1980s, which are attributable to multiple factors, including increasing heat, changing precipitation patterns, and extended drought. To better understand how these factors contribute to large fire emissions (gridded monthly fire emissions >95th percentile of all the fire emissions in the western US; 0.009 Gg/month), we build a machine learning model to predict fire emissions (PM 2.5 ) over the western US at 0.25° resolution, interpreted using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). From the predictor contributions derived from XAI, we conduct k‐means clustering analysis to identify four clusters of predictor variables representing different drivers of large fire emissions. The four clusters feature the contributions of fuel load (Cluster 1) and different levels of dryness (Cluster 2–4), controlled by fuel moisture, drought condition, and fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns featuring high temperature, high pressure, and low relative humidity. In the past two decades, large fire emissions peak in summer. However, large fire emissions increased significantly in September and October in 2010–2020 relative to 2000–2009, extending the peak large fire emissions from summer to autumn. The larger enhancements of large fire emissions during autumn compared to summer are contributed by decreased fuel moisture, along with more frequent concurrent fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns and drought. These results highlight fuel drying as a common driver supported by multiple drivers, such as warmer temperature and more frequent synoptic patterns favorable for fires, in increasing the autumn risk of large fire emissions across the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Building Decarbonization Trends and Strategies

It is evident from extreme weather patterns that climate change is impacting the whole world. The consequences in the form of unpredicted severe weather conditions, hurricanes, floods, and wildfires have been disrupting national economies and affecting lives across the globe. As the global economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, the temporary drop in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly caused due to travel bans and economic slowdowns is no longer the case and, moving forward, controlling the increase in GHG emissions has emerged as a global challenge. The impact of climate change has enabled an acknowledgement of the challenge and this coincided with the rapid development of clean energy technologies for buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors, while ensuring a significant reduction in costs for their wide implementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimated impacts of forest restoration scenarios on smoke exposures among outdoor agricultural workers in California

Abstract As wildfires continue to worsen across western United States, forest managers are increasingly employing prescribed burns as a way to reduce excess fuels and future wildfire risk. While the ecological benefits of these fuel treatments are clear, little is known about the smoke exposure tradeoffs of using prescribed burns to mitigate wildfires, particularly among at-risk populations. Outdoor agricultural workers are a population at increased risk of smoke exposure because of their time spent outside and the physical demands of their work. Here, we assess the smoke exposure impacts among outdoor agricultural workers resulting from the implementation of six forest management scenarios proposed for a landscape in the Central Sierra, California. We leverage emissions estimates from LANDIS-II to model daily PM 2.5 concentrations with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) and link those to agricultural employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We find a u-shaped result, in that moderate amounts of prescribed burning result in the greatest reduction in total smoke exposure among outdoor agricultural workers, particularly during months of peak agricultural activity due to wildfire-specific smoke reductions. The reduction in total smoke exposure, relative to scenarios with the least amount of management, decreases as more prescribed burning is applied to the landscape due to the contributions of the fuel treatments themselves to overall smoke burden. The results of this analysis may contribute to preparedness efforts aimed at reducing smoke exposures among outdoor agricultural workers, while also informing forest management planning for this specific landscape.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Air quality impact of the Northern California Camp Fire of November 2018

The Northern California Camp Fire that took place in November 2018 was one of the most damaging environmental events in California history. Here, we analyze ground-based station observations of airborne particulate matter that has a diameter <2.5 µm (PM 2.5 ) across Northern California and conduct numerical simulations of the Camp Fire using the Weather Research and Forecasting model online coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Simulations are evaluated against ground-based observations of PM 2.5 , black carbon, and meteorology, as well as satellite measurements, such as Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aerosol layer height and aerosol index. The Camp Fire led to an increase in Bay Area PM 2.5 to over 50 µg m –3 for nearly 2 weeks, with localized peaks exceeding 300 µg m –3 . Using the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) high-resolution fire detection products, the simulations reproduce the magnitude and evolution of surface PM 2.5 concentrations, especially downwind of the wildfire. The overall spatial patterns of simulated aerosol plumes and their heights are comparable with the latest satellite products from TROPOMI. WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations are carried out to analyze uncertainties that arise from fire emissions, meteorological conditions, feedback of aerosol radiative effects on meteorology, and various physical parameterizations, including the planetary boundary layer model and the plume rise model. Downwind PM 2.5 concentrations are sensitive to both flaming and smoldering emissions over the fire, so the uncertainty in the satellite-derived fire emission products can directly affect the air pollution simulations downwind. Our analysis also shows the importance of land surface and boundary layer parameterization in the fire simulation, which can result in large variations in magnitude and trend of surface PM 2.5 . Inclusion of aerosol radiative feedback moderately improves PM 2.5 simulations, especially over the most polluted days. Results of this study can assist in the development of data assimilation systems as well as air quality forecasting of health exposures and economic impact studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected increases in wildfires may challenge regulatory curtailment of PM 2.5 over the eastern US by 2050

Anthropogenic contribution to the overall fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations has been declining sharply in North America. In contrast, a steep rise in wildfire-induced air pollution events with recent warming is evident in the region. Here, based on coupled fire–climate–ecosystem model simulations, summertime wildfire-induced PM 2.5 concentrations are projected to nearly double in North America by the mid-21st century compared to the present. More strikingly, the projected enhancement in fire-induced PM 2.5 (~1–2 µg m -3 ) and its contribution (~15 %–20 %) to the total PM 2.5 are distinctively significant in the eastern US. This can be attributed to downwind transport of smoke from future enhancement of wildfires in North America to the eastern US and associated positive climatic feedback on PM 2.5 , i.e., perturbations in circulation, atmospheric stability, and precipitation. Therefore, the anticipated reductions in PM 2.5 from regulatory controls on anthropogenic emissions could be significantly compromised in the future in the densely populated eastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogen Energy Storage System at Borrego Springs Towards an H2 Enabled 100 Renewable Microgrid

San Diego Gas & Electric's Borrego Springs Microgrid is one of the largest microgrids in the USA, serving 2500 residential customers, 300 commercial and industrial customers, and has a peak demand of approximately 14 MW. This microgrid is located at the end of a long transmission line, and is subjected to extreme weather events like storms, wildfires, and flooding, which frequently cause grid outages. The microgrid currently relies on 3.65 MW of diesel-powered generators to provide grid-forming services during these outages, which results in greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions. However, the microgrid has access to approximately 37 MW of installed solar generation and struggles with overgeneration and curtailment. 1.5 MW/4.5 MWh of grid-scale batteries have been installed to capture some the overgeneration and provide resiliency, but a longer-duration low-greenhouse gas emission energy storage solution is needed. In our project, the team will evaluate in the lab and demonstrate in the field a grid-forming fuel cell inverter that can provide grid-forming services while utilizing hydrogen's energy storage scalability. We will first utilize NREL's Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform to perform analyses on future microgrid scenarios that use hydrogen assets to reduce or eliminate the need for diesel backup generators. We will then evaluate the grid-forming inverter through power hardware-in-the-loop and controller hardware-in-the-loop experiments at ARIES, and de-risk the field deployment and operation of hydrogen assets in the microgrid setting. Finally, this project will demonstrate the operation of the fuel cell inverter and updated microgrid controller by operating in grid-forming mode in the Borrego Springs microgrid.

Borrego Springs↗