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DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Day-Ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services

Wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting are used in research and industry to anticipate future power output at scales ranging from individual wind turbines to entire wind farms. Probabilistic day-ahead wind forecasting is useful for anticipating how a wind farm could potentially participate in the day-ahead market by providing upper and lower bounds for expected power generation, thus informing grid operators of its uncertainty. Understanding this uncertainty is part of a larger project focused on building a platform that combines efforts in weather forecasting, aerodynamic and economic modeling to create maximum value of a wind plant to better provide services to the grid. This effort is also known as the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid (A2E2G) project. One method for producing a probabilistic forecast is through the analog ensemble approach (Delle Monache et al., 2011). This method leverages historical forecasts and their corresponding observations as a training data set from which future forecasts can be made. For some future forecast, the most similar historical forecasts (analogs) are identified on a regular time basis such as once per a 3-hour window. The most similar analogs, based on a metric such as root mean square error (RMSE), are recorded and their corresponding verifying observations are used as an ensemble member for this future forecast. Prior work in this area demonstrates improvements over raw Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and shows skill similar to techniques such as logistic regression and machine learning (Delle Monache et al., 2013; Alessandrini et al., 2015). Here, we take the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) day-ahead forecast (0-36 hours) to create a probabilistic day-ahead forecast using an analog ensemble approach. The HRRR has an hourly temporal resolution, with a spatial resolution of 3 km. The 12 UTC HRRR model run is downloaded every day for one year from August 2019 - July 2020, with the first 11 months serving as a bank of analogs from which the forecasting algorithm can create a probabilistic forecast. Once downloaded, the original HRRR forecast is temporally interpolated to 5-minutes, aligning with both the temporal resolution of the observations as well as the timescale relevant for day-ahead power forecasts. The forecast is validated at the M2 tower at the Flatirons Campus of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at a typical wind turbine height of 80 m. Variables such as wind speed, wind direction, and turbulence intensity are incorporated into the probabilistic forecast model and weighted according to their relative importance to the forecast. Based on metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error, the analog ensemble forecast outperforms the raw HRRR forecast during the testing period of July 2020. Figure 1 illustrates an example day-ahead forecast compared against the verifying observations. The general variability and ramps are captured throughout the day, with potential to further improve the analog ensemble model through machine learning techniques.

numerical weather prediction↗

NASA NTRS2013

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

On the day of launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers. During launch operations, the payload/launch team sometimes asks the LWOs if they expect the upper-level winds to change during the countdown. The LWOs used numerical weather prediction model point forecasts to provide the information, but did not have the capability to quickly retrieve or adequately display the upper-level observations and compare them directly in the same display to the model point forecasts to help them determine which model performed the best. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Profiling System (AMPS) rawinsondes with point forecast wind profiles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Mesoscale (NAM), Rapid Refresh (RAP) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models to assess the performance of these models. The AMU suggested adding observations from the NASA 50 MHz wind profiler and one of the US Air Force 915 MHz wind profilers, both located near the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Shuttle Landing Facility, to supplement the AMPS observations with more frequent upper-level profiles. Figure 1 shows a map of KSC/CCAFS with the locations of the observation sites and the model point forecasts.

Bauman, William H., III↗

DOE OSTI2026

Short‐Term Hourly Weather Forecasting Using PredRNN With Image Preprocessing

Global weather forecast models are vital tools with numerous applications, including public safety, agriculture, and transportation. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) have shown the potential to enhance weather forecasting accuracy and speed. In this study, we developed a short-term hourly weather forecast framework with a wavelet transform function for data preprocessing and a spatiotemporal DL model, PredRNN, for predicting five surface atmospheric variables, including wind speed and direction, mean sea level pressure (MSLP), temperature, and precipitation. The framework demonstrated promising results. It produces global forecasts at 0.25° (∼25 km) with a 1-day lead time RMSE of 1.8 m/s for wind components, 180 Pa for MSLP, and 1.8 K for temperature. Although our model does not surpass state-of-the-art AI weather forecast models across all metrics, it outperforms these models in precipitation forecasting and wind prediction at short lead times and achieves comparable accuracy for MSLP. Its native hourly forecasting capability, together with training on widely accessible GPU hardware, contributes meaningfully to the advancement of accessible DL weather forecasting methods. Our work highlights the importance of integrating temporal components and data transformation techniques to improve the predictability and accuracy of weather forecasts.

Tran, Hoang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved Representation of Horizontal Variability and Turbulence in Mesoscale Simulations of an Extended Cold-Air Pool Event

Abstract Cold-air pools (CAPs), or stable atmospheric boundary layers that form within topographic basins, are associated with poor air quality, hazardous weather, and low wind energy output. Accurate prediction of CAP dynamics presents a challenge for mesoscale forecast models in part because CAPs occur in regions of complex terrain, where traditional turbulence parameterizations may not be appropriate. This study examines the effects of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and horizontal diffusion treatment on CAP prediction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Model runs with a one-dimensional (1D) PBL scheme and Smagorinsky-like horizontal diffusion are compared with runs that use a new three-dimensional (3D) PBL scheme to calculate turbulent fluxes. Simulations are completed in a nested configuration with 3-km/750-m horizontal grid spacing over a 10-day case study in the Columbia River basin, and results are compared with observations from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Using event-averaged error metrics, potential temperature and wind speed errors are shown to decrease both with increased horizontal grid resolution and with improved treatment of horizontal diffusion over steep terrain. The 3D PBL scheme further reduces errors relative to a standard 1D PBL approach. Error reduction is accentuated during CAP erosion, when turbulent mixing plays a more dominant role in the dynamics. Last, the 3D PBL scheme is shown to reduce near-surface overestimates of turbulence kinetic energy during the CAP event. The sensitivity of turbulence predictions to the master length-scale formulation in the 3D PBL parameterization is also explored. Significance Statement In this article, we demonstrate how a new framework for modeling atmospheric turbulence improves cold pool predictions, using a case study from January 2017 in the Columbia River basin (U.S. Pacific Northwest). Cold pools are regions of cold, stagnant air that form within valleys or basins, and improved forecasts could help to mitigate the risks they pose to air quality, transportation, and wind energy production. For the chosen case study, our tests show a reduction in temperature and wind speed errors by up to a factor of 2–3 relative to standard model options. These results strongly motivate continued development of the framework as well as its application to other complex weather events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Topological Guided Detection of Extreme Wind Phenomena: Implications for Wind Energy

Extreme wind phenomena play a crucial role in the efficient operation of wind farms for renewable energy generation. However, existing detection methods are computationally expensive, limited to specific coordinate. In real-world scenarios, understanding the occurrence of these phenomena over a large area is essential. Therefore, there is a significant demand for a fast and accurate approach to forecast such events. In this paper, we propose a novel method for detecting wind phenomena using topological analysis, leveraging the gradient of wind speed or critical points in a topological framework. By extracting topological features from the wind speed profile within a defined region, we employ topological distance to identify extreme wind phenomena. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing topological features derived from regional wind speed profiles. We validate our approach using high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) over a month in the US East Coast.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Topological Guided Detection of Extreme Wind Phenomena: Implications for Wind Energy: Preprint

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2009

Validation of Community Models: 2. Development of a Baseline, Using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge Model

This paper is the second in a series providing independent validation of community models of the outer corona and inner heliosphere. Here I present a comprehensive validation of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare the next generation of comparable forecasting models. The WSA model is used by a number of agencies to predict Solar wind conditions at Earth up to 4 days into the future. Given its importance to both the research and forecasting communities, it is essential that its performance be measured systematically and independently. I offer just such an independent and systematic validation. I report skill scores for the model's predictions of wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity for a large set of Carrington rotations. The model was run in all its routinely used configurations. It ingests synoptic line of sight magnetograms. For this study I generated model results for monthly magnetograms from multiple observatories, spanning the Carrington rotation range from 1650 to 2074. I compare the influence of the different magnetogram sources and performance at quiet and active times. I also consider the ability of the WSA model to forecast both sharp transitions in wind speed from slow to fast wind and reversals in the polarity of the radial component of the IMF. These results will serve as a baseline against which to compare future versions of the model as well as the current and future generation of magnetohydrodynamic models under development for forecasting use.

MacNeice, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2003

MiniSODAR(TradeMark) Evaluation

This report describes results of the AMU's Instrumentation and Measurement task for evaluation of the Doppler miniSODAR(TradeMark) System (DmSS). The DmSS is an acoustic wind profiler providing high resolution data to a height of approx. 410 ft. The Boeing Company installed a DmSS near Space Launch Complex 37 in mid-2002 as a substitute for a tall wind tower and plans to use DmSS data for the analysis and forecasting of winds during ground and launch operations. Peak wind speed data are of particular importance to Launch Weather Officers of the 45th Weather Squadron for evaluating user Launch Commit Criteria. The AMU performed a comparative analysis of wind data between the DmSS and nearby wind towers from August 2002 to July 2003. The DmSS vertical profile of average wind speed showed good agreement with the wind towers. However, the DMSS peak wind speeds were higher, on average, than the wind tower peak wind speeds by about 25%. A statistical model of an idealized Doppler profiler was developed and it predicted that average wind speeds would be well determined but peak wind speeds would be over-estimated due to an under-specification of vertical velocity variations in the atmosphere over the Profiler.

Short, David A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data and code repository for "How do the weather regimes drive wind speed and power production at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over the CONUS?"

There has been an increasing need for forecasting power generation at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales to support the operation, management, and planning of the wind-energy system. At the S2S timescales, atmospheric variability is largely related to recurrent and persistent weather patterns, referred to as weather regimes (WRs). In the study "How do the weather regimes drive wind speed and power production at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales over the CONUS?", we identify four WRs that influence wind resources over North America using a self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm. These WRs are responsible for large-scale wind and power production anomalies over the CONUS at the S2S timescales. The WR-based reconstruction explains up to 50% of the monthly variance of power production over the western United States, and the explanatory power generally increases with the increase of timescales. The identified relationship between WRs and power production reveals the potential and limitations of the regional WR-based wind resource assessment over different regions of the CONUS across multiple timescales. This repository includes all the data and codes we use for analyses in this study. Users may use them to reproduce the results of this study on their end.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2013

First Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Timing Study

NASA's LSP, GSDO and other programs use the probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in their daily and weekly lightning probability forecasts. These organizations use this information when planning potentially hazardous outdoor activities, such as working with fuels, or rolling a vehicle to a launch pad, or whenever personnel will work outside and would be at-risk from lightning. These organizations would benefit greatly if the 45 WS could provide more accurate timing of the first CG lightning strike of the day. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has made significant improvements in forecasting the probability of lightning for the day, but forecasting the time of the first CG lightning with confidence has remained a challenge. To address this issue, the 45 WS requested the AMU to determine if flow regimes, wind speed categories, or a combination of the two could be used to forecast the timing of the first strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lightning warning circles. The data was stratified by various sea breeze flow regimes and speed categories in the surface to 5,000-ft layer. The surface to 5,000-ft layer was selected since that is the layer the 45 WS uses to predict the behavior of sea breeze fronts, which are the dominant influence on the occurrence of first lightning in Florida during the warm season. Due to small data sample sizes after stratification, the AMU could not determine a statistical relationship between flow regimes or speed categories and the time of the first CG strike.. As expected, although the amount and timing of lightning activity varies by time of day based on the flow regimes and speed categories, there are extended tails of low lightning activity making it difficult to specify times when the threat of the first lightning flash can be avoided. However, the AMU developed a graphical user interface with input from the 45 WS that allows forecasters to visualize the climatological frequencies of the timing of the first lightning strike. This tool should contribute directly to the 45 WS goal of improving lightning timing capability for its NASA, US Air Force and commercial customers.

statistical analysis↗

NASA NTRS1984

Multisensor satellite data integration for sea surface wind speed and direction determination

Techniques to integrate meteorological data from various satellite sensors to yield a global measure of sea surface wind speed and direction for input to the Navy's operational weather forecast models were investigated. The sensors were launched or will be launched, specifically the GOES visible and infrared imaging sensor, the Nimbus-7 SMMR, and the DMSP SSM/I instrument. An algorithm for the extrapolation to the sea surface of wind directions as derived from successive GOES cloud images was developed. This wind veering algorithm is relatively simple, accounts for the major physical variables, and seems to represent the best solution that can be found with existing data. An algorithm for the interpolation of the scattered observed data to a common geographical grid was implemented. The algorithm is based on a combination of inverse distance weighting and trend surface fitting, and is suited to combing wind data from disparate sources.

Glackin, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 4

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 4 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 4 uses flight plan segment wind and temperature differences as indicators of dates and geographic areas for which significant forecast errors may have occurred. An in-depth analysis is then conducted for the days identified. The analysis show that significant errors occur in the operational forecast on 15 of the 33 arbitrarily selected days included in the study. Wind speeds in an area of maximum winds are underestimated by at least 20 to 25 kts. on 14 of these days. The analysis also show that there is a tendency to repeat the same forecast errors from prog to prog. Also, some perceived forecast errors from the flight plan comparisons could not be verified by visual inspection of the corresponding National Meteorological Center forecast and analyses charts, and it is likely that they are the result of weather data interpolation techniques or some other data processing procedure in the airlines' flight planning systems.

Keitz, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Toward the Probabilistic Forecasting of High-latitude GPS Phase Scintillation

The phase scintillation index was obtained from L1 GPS data collected with the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) during years of extended solar minimum 2008-2010. Phase scintillation occurs predominantly on the dayside in the cusp and in the nightside auroral oval. We set forth a probabilistic forecast method of phase scintillation in the cusp based on the arrival time of either solar wind corotating interaction regions (CIRs) or interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). CIRs on the leading edge of high-speed streams (HSS) from coronal holes are known to cause recurrent geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that can be forecast one or several solar rotations in advance. Superposed epoch analysis of phase scintillation occurrence showed a sharp increase in scintillation occurrence just after the arrival of high-speed solar wind and a peak associated with weak to moderate CMEs during the solar minimum. Cumulative probability distribution functions for the phase scintillation occurrence in the cusp are obtained from statistical data for days before and after CIR and ICME arrivals. The probability curves are also specified for low and high (below and above median) values of various solar wind plasma parameters. The initial results are used to demonstrate a forecasting technique on two example periods of CIRs and ICMEs.

scintillation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Can reanalysis products outperform mesoscale numerical weather prediction models in modeling the wind resource in simple terrain?

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (~-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (~-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (~+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

ECMWF and SSM/I global surface wind speeds

Monthly mean 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg resolution 10-m height wind speeds from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instrument and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast-analysis system are compared between 60 deg S and 60 deg N during 1988-91. The SSM/I data were uniformly processed while numerous changes were made to the ECMWF forecast-analysis system. The SSM/I measurements, which were compared with moored-buoy wind observations, were used as a reference dataset to evaluate the influence of the changes made to the ECMWF system upon the ECMWF surface wind speed over the ocean. A demonstrable yearly decrease of the difference between SSM/I and ECMWF wind speeds occurred in the 10 deg S-10 deg N region, including the 5 deg S-5 deg N zone of the Pacific Ocean, where nearly all of the variations occurred in the 160 deg E-160 deg W region. The apparent improvement of the ECMWF wind speed occurred at the same time as the yearly decrease of the equatorial Pacific SSM/I wind speed, which was associated with the natural transition from La Nina to El Nino conditions. In the 10 deg S-10 deg N tropical Atlantic, the ECMWF wind speed had a 4-yr trend, which was not expected nor was it duplicated with the SSM/I data. No yearly trend was found in the difference between SSM/I and ECMWF surface wind speeds in middle latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The magnitude of the differences between SSM/I and ECMWF was 0.4 m/s or 100% larger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. In two areas (Arabian Sea and North Atlantic Ocean) where ECMWF and SSM/I wind speeds were compared to ship measurements, the ship data had much better agreement with the ECMWF analyses compared to SSM/I data. In the 10 deg S-10 deg N area the difference between monthly standard deviations of the daily wind speeds dropped significantly from 1988 to 1989 but remained constant at about 30% for the remaining years.

Halpern, David↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Analysis of Peak Wind Speed Data from Collocated Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study focuses on a comparison of peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) on the east central coast of Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the central coast of California. The legacy mechanical wind instruments on CCAFS/KSC and VAFB weather towers are being changed from propeller-and-vane (CCAFS/KSC) and cup-and-vane (VAFB) sensors to ultrasonic sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. The wind tower networks on KSC/CCAFS and VAFB have 41 and 27 towers, respectively. Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts at both locations need to understand the performance of the new wind sensors for a myriad of reasons that include weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The Legacy sensors measure wind speed and direction mechanically. The ultrasonic RSA sensors have no moving parts. Ultrasonic sensors were originally developed to measure very light winds (Lewis and Dover 2004). The technology has evolved and now ultrasonic sensors provide reliable wind data over a broad range of wind speeds. However, because ultrasonic sensors respond more quickly than mechanical sensors to rapid fluctuations in speed, characteristic of gusty wind conditions, comparisons of data from the two sensor types have shown differences in the statistics of peak wind speeds (Lewis and Dover 2004). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data from RSA and Legacy sensors to determine if there are significant differences in peak wind speed information from the two systems.

Short, David A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

An evaluation of meteorological data prediction over Washington, D.C.: Comparison of DCNet observations and NAM model outputs

This study presents an example of how outputs of operational and readily-available mesoscale numerical models can be adapted to initialize dispersion calculations within the urban surface roughness layer. Three years of urban meteorological observations from central Washington, DC, are compared against forecast outputs of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. NAM wind speed predictions underestimate the observations in light winds and overestimate the measurements in high winds. Average wind directions are consistent. However, an adjustment of the predicted direction of the plume by –20° is needed. The uncertainty associated with this adjustment is large in light NAM wind speed with no evident variation by season. The values of the standard deviation of the wind direction, σθ derived from NAM model outputs underestimate the observations by a small amount (about –1.5 to –2.5°). The results presented here indicate that mesoscale numerical model outputs can provide information adequate for dispersion calculations. However, levels of uncertainty associated with implementation of the suggested procedures increase with decreasing wind speed, causing considerable uncertainty in the implementation of adjustments as low wind speed conditions are approached. Results and recommendations reported here should not be extended to other numerical models or other cities without further testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗