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DOE OSTI2023

Dependence of Cosmological Constraints on Gray Photometric Zero-point Uncertainties of Supernova Surveys

Abstract Type Ia supernova (SN) measurements of the Hubble constant, H 0 ; cosmic mass density, Ω M ; and dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w , rely on heterogeneous SN surveys across three decades of observation. These distinct surveys may have undiagnosed, relative photometric zero-point errors. We determine the sensitivities of the SH0ES+Pantheon+ cosmological constraints to unknown gray systematics in the photometric zero-point calibration between the 19 surveys that comprise the Pantheon+ SN compendium. Varying the surveys’ gray zero-points simultaneously with cosmological parameters, we determine that the SH0ES+Pantheon+ measurement of H 0 is robust against gray intersurvey photometric miscalibration. Specifically, uncalibrated intersurvey systematics could represent a source of uncertainty no larger than 0.39 km s −1 Mpc −1 for H 0 . This modest increase in H 0 uncertainty could not account for the 7 km s −1 Mpc −1 “Hubble tension” between the SH0ES measurement of H 0 and the Planck ΛCDM-based inference of H 0 . However, the SH0ES+Pantheon+ best-fit values of Ω M and w are not robust against gray zero-point error, slipping by up to 0.16 and −0.63. Because measurements of Ω M and w depend on intrasurvey cross-band calibration, the hypothetical gray miscalibration underestimates the sensitivity of these measurements to zero-point miscalibration. Because the Pantheon+ compendium contains many surveys that share low- z Hubble flow (HF) and Cepheid-paired SNe, intersurvey photometric calibration errors do not significantly impede the joint use of SH0ES and Pantheon+ to measure H 0 to 1% accuracy. However, H 0 constraints that rely on one HF survey but numerous galactic distance calibration surveys are susceptible to intersurvey photometric miscalibration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2

Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO 2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is -0.36 to 0.29°C, with a model ensemble mean of -0.07 °C, median of -0.05°C, and standard deviation of 0.19°C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

MacDougall, Andrew H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Life cycle assessment of co-firing biomass at coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage toward net-zero emissions

Co-firing biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) offers a technological option to decarbonize coal-fired power plants toward net-zero emissions. This study estimates the life cycle emissions of co-firing biomass at coal-fired power plants with CCS and quantifies its variability and uncertainty. Deployment of co-firing BECCS at coal-fired power plants can significantly reduce the life cycle emissions toward the net-zero target but lower the power plant performance, which vary with numerous factors, including coal type, biomass type, co-firing level, and CO 2 capture rate. The breakeven co-firing levels required for biomass at coal-fired power plants with 90 % CO 2 capture to reach net-zero emissions fall with a range roughly from 15 % to 25 % on an energy basis, depending on coal and biomass types. Increasing the CO 2 capture rate from 90 % to 95 % can lower the breakeven co-firing levels by about 5 to 8 percentage points for the biomass resources of interest, which can lower reliance on biomass resources and facilitate large-scale deployment of co-firing BECCS in fossil-rich regions but with limited biomass resources. Furthermore, findings improve the understanding of the techno-environmental performance of co-firing BECCS and inform strategic planning decisions on net-zero emissions in the coal-fired power sector.

Breakeven co-firing level↗

DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Fermentation-Derived Substrates on Hydrogen Production in Zero-Gap Microbial Electrolysis Cells

Zero-gap microbial electrolysis cells (MECs) represent a promising platform for hydrogen production from liquid waste streams due to reduced interelectrode spacing that lowers internal resistance and enhances mass transport. However, the performance and stability of zero-gap MECs treating chemically complex feedstocks remain insufficiently characterized. Here, we operated zero-gap MECs with real, unamended, corn stover dark fermentation effluent containing a wide range of organic substrates. The MECs fed fermentation effluent achieved a maximum current density of 24 A/m2 (15+-6 A/m2 over the cycle) and a hydrogen production rate of 75 L/L-d (42+-19 L/L-d over the cycle). The substrates were consumed at different rates, indicating substrate-selective utilization by the anodic microbial community. Acetate supported high and stable current generation, whereas ethanol, formate, lactate, and amino acids induced varying degrees of inhibition depending on their concentration. Residual sugars caused pronounced current fluctuations, consistent with ongoing fermentation and local pH changes. A diverse microbial community was crucial for efficiently utilizing complex organics and maximizing electrochemical performance. These results demonstrate how and to what extent substrate composition regulates zero-gap MEC performance and that microbial community and operational conditions can be leveraged to enhance performance. These novel findings provide practical guidance for achieving robust hydrogen recovery from chemically heterogeneous real liquid waste streams.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Price formation in zero-carbon electricity markets - fundamentals, challenges, and research needs

Future power systems dominated by zero-carbon generation resources may require significant revisions to electricity market designs to ensure capacity adequacy and market efficiency. Here, in this paper, we first conceptually outline key fundamentals underlying electricity market design and price formation in U.S. electricity markets. We then discuss a set of potential market design challenges related to price formation in a grid dominated by zero-carbon resources with marginal cost profiles that differ compared to traditional thermal resources. Next, we review electricity market design solutions that have been proposed in the literature to ensure market efficiency in zero-carbon systems, and the associated implications for price formation. We conclude by summarizing key observations and establishing a set of research questions that should be addressed to improve our understanding of market design, price formation, and market efficiency in zero-carbon power systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

5G Zero Trust Architecture: A Testable and Phased Approach

With the emphasis being placed on Zero Trust Architecture in technology and by Executive Order (Executive Order on Improving the Nation’s Cybersecurity ), an investigation was performed as to the feasibility of implementing this approach into 5G. Reference documents include NIST Special Publication 800-207 and Department of Defense (DoD) Zero Trust Reference Architecture , and these provided guidance as to the overall approach. Progress is being made within 5G to address the lack of Zero Trust Architecture; a June 2021 DoD press release indicated that “The prototype 5G network is built on the next generation of Open Radio Network standards and designed to comply with DOD specifications for zero-trust architecture for native security and secure connectivity with other networks.”

5G↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automating the Analysis of Large Language Models Responses through Zero-Shot Question Answering

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant potential in various applications, yet their evaluation, particularly in zero-shot question answering scenarios, remains a challenging task. In this study, our objective was to explore precision metrics for Large Language Models (LLM) and design and implement a software pipeline to automatically evaluate LLMs' outputs under zero-shot question answering. Zero-shot question answering involves a model providing answers to questions about topics it hasn't seen during training. It leverages the principles of zero-shot learning by relying on semantic understanding and generalization from related knowledge. The data used was metadata from medical databases on congenital heart disease. We explored eleven LLM metrics and selected three for our evaluation: BLEU, BERTScore, and MoverScore. BLEU calculates a score based on the overlap of n-grams (contiguous sequences of n items, typically words) between the machine-generated translation and the reference translations. Higher BLEU scores indicate better correspondence between the machine-generated and human-generated translations. BERTScore is a metric used to evaluate the quality of machine-generated text by measuring the similarity of token embeddings produced by BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers) between the generated text and reference text. MoverScore is a metric that quantifies the dissimilarity between the distributions of word embeddings from machine-generated text and reference text, emphasizing semantic similarity over exact token overlap. We also introduced HBKI, a composite metric summarizing these approaches. We tested five models —GPT-3, Llama-2, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Solar 10.7B, and Mixtral-8x7b. Our software pipeline, designed and implemented using Object-Oriented Programming principles, allows users to customize the selection and extraction of features for topics of interest in their own research. Our results show that MoverScore delivered the most precise evaluation of the LLM's outputs, while Mixtral-8x7b achieved the best overall performance in extracting metadata from the databases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Zero Trust Strategies for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Detection Systems: D.1 Cyber Scenarios

The evolving landscape of cybersecurity necessitates a paradigm shift to a Zero Trust (ZT) model, which assumes breaches and continuously verifies trust. This approach reshapes how trust boundaries are established, focusing on identities, devices, networks, applications, and data, rather than solely relying on perimeter defenses such as firewalls. Central to this transformation is the National Institute of Standards and Technology's (NIST) Special Publication 800-207, outlining the Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA), along with Executive Order 14028, which mandates federal agencies to adopt ZT principles. Complementary to these efforts, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) developed the Zero Trust Maturity Model (ZTMM), providing a framework with five pillars and three cross-cutting capabilities to guide agencies toward enhanced cybersecurity maturity. In support of these initiatives, the DHS Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office (CWMD) is applying ZT principles to secure Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) detection systems. Recognizing the diverse deployment models and network connectivity of these systems—from stationary, non-networked units to mobile, cloud-connected devices—the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing cybersecurity scenarios specifically for CBRN environments. These scenarios examine various configurations and technological capabilities, offering insights into the application of ZTMM pillars in enhancing the security postures of CBRN devices. The cybersecurity scenarios presented by PNNL are hypothetical, crafted to explore theoretical situations and stimulate discussion on the potential use or compromise of CBRN detection systems in varied contexts. These narratives are illustrative and do not reference any real events or actual networks. Instead, they employ generalized reference models to highlight concepts and potential issues within CBRN security, focusing on how Zero Trust strategies can be adapted to address these challenges effectively.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Strategies to Approach Net-Zero Carbon Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Woody Biomass Gasification and Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis

Reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transportation industry is a key target for achieving global net-zero carbon goals. Wide-spread electrification, efficient engine design, and alternative fuel implementations have been introduced for light-duty vehicles and are projected to significantly reduce light-duty emissions in the near future. Conversely, the aviation sector contributes considerably towards transportation-based carbon emissions, but current projections do not show substantial reductions in carbon emissions over time. Challenges for the aviation sector include low compatibility with electrification, relative inflexibility to variations in fuel properties, and requirement of high energy density fuels. Thus, identifying pathways to decarbonize the aviation sector via liquid low- or net-zero carbon biofuels that are compatible with current aviation infrastructure is crucial. This work investigates the economic feasibility of approaching net-zero carbon sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from woody biomass via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. In doing so, this assessment identifies the economic opportunities and trade-offs of several carbon mitigation strategies coupled with renewable resource interventions required to approach net-zero carbon fuels via biomass. Renewable natural gas and green hydrogen utilization strategies are assessed to examine the impact of fuel yield improvements versus renewable resource cost. Additionally, both carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) are considered in this analysis to help mitigate carbon loss to the atmosphere. Each scenario was assessed on cost, carbon efficiency, energy efficiency, and overall technology-readiness level (TRL). The results of this analysis show that renewable natural gas, green hydrogen, and CCS can be viewed as a low-cost, near-term carbon abatement strategies. However, in the long-term, deployment of more expensive and less technologically mature CCU technologies can make use of point sources of CO2 to boost overall fuel production.

aviation fuel↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Net Zero World Initiative

The U.S. is committed to working with countries all over the globe to accelerate clean climate goals from ambition to action, and the Net Zero World Initiative is the latest example of our dedication. The Net Zero World Initiative is uniquely positioned to achieve rapid global energy decarbonization. It will partner with countries to help them implement climate ambition pledges and accelerate global transitions to net zero, resilient, and inclusive energy systems. The Net Zero World Initiative Will Harness Unique USG and Lab Assets in Partnership with Philanthropies. Scale-up and goals listed.

accelerate↗

DOE OSTI2024

Achieving INL’s Net-Zero Future

Net-Zero program intern poster for the 2024 INL intern poster session. Poster includes the objective of the Net-Zero team, work the interns have accomplished at INL, work the Net-Zero team has accomplished toward its goals thus far, and a conclusionary statement about the state of the Net-Zero program.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Magic zeroes and hidden symmetries

Selection rules arising from accidental or broken symmetries may be sufficiently obscure that their agency is hidden, leading to the appearance of “magic zeroes” — quantities that are suppressed without apparent recourse to a symmetry explanation. Magic zeroes and their corresponding hidden symmetries may shed new light on parametric hierarchies in the Standard Model and beyond. We identify the hidden symmetry responsible for a recently-discovered magic zero, the vanishing of the putative leading contribution to the anomalous dipole moments of the muon upon integrating out weak doublet and singlet vector-like fermions. Some of the tools involved — spurion analysis leveraging discrete symmetries of the free theory, field redefinitions, spectator fields, and non-supersymmetric non-renormalization theorems — may prove useful in the hunt for new magic zeroes and their hidden symmetries.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Zero modes of massive fermions delocalize from axion strings

Massless chiral excitations can arise from the interactions between a fermion and an axion string, propagating along the string and allowing it to superconduct. The properties of these excitations, or zero modes, dictate how the string interacts with light and can thus have important phenomenological consequences. In this paper, we add a nowhere-vanishing Dirac mass for the fermion in the usual model of axion electrodynamics. We find that the zero modes exhibit an interesting phase structure in which they delocalize from the string’s core as the mass increases, up until a critical value past which they disappear. We study this structure from an analytic perspective, with explicit numerical solutions, and via anomaly inflow arguments. Finally, we derive the two-dimensional effective theory of the zero mode and its interactions with the four-dimensional gauge field and show how this effective theory breaks down as the zero modes delocalize.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seasonal performance evaluation of zero-superheat active refrigerant charge control for variable-speed heat pumps

Heat pumps account for a significant portion of electricity consumption in buildings, making their energy efficiency a critical area of research. Control optimization is recognized as an effective approach for enhancing the efficiency of building HVAC systems. Specifically, since the efficiency of heat pumps increases with reduced superheat and the optimal refrigerant charge level varies with operating conditions, zero-superheat active charge control is a promising strategy to maximize the system’s COP. However, due to its complexity, this control strategy remains in the research phase and has only been tested under limited operating conditions. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate the seasonal performance improvement of zero-superheat active charge control across a full range of heating conditions in buildings. The methodology includes the development of an optimal controller that utilizes an accumulator to store excess refrigerant and manages the active charge level at zero superheat through subcooling control, as well as the creation of a detailed physics-based heat pump model. Targeted a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump with R410A refrigerant, we selected ten U.S. cities representing different climate regions for seasonal performance evaluation. Our simulations indicate that, depending on the climate conditions, the optimal control strategy could achieve energy savings ranging from 5.8 % to 8.0 % over the entire heating season. These results suggest that zero-superheat active charge control, combined with coordinated compressor and fan speeds, could substantially improve the energy efficiency of heat pump systems while maintaining the required heating capacity.

Guo, Fangzhou↗

DOE OSTI2025

Zero-Field NMR and Millitesla-SLIC Spectra for >200 Molecules from Density Functional Theory and Spin Dynamics

NMR is usually performed at magnetic fields of 1 T and above to obtain sufficient sensitivity and spectral dispersion to identify chemicals based on chemical shifts and J couplings. At lower fields, the advent of hyperpolarization technologies and sensitive detectors can address sensitivity concerns. However, it remains disputed whether spectral signatures at zero and ultra-low fields are sufficient for chemical identification. Here, we report an all–electron DFT-based batch calculation of J-coupling constants, which are used to generate J coupling NMR spectra at zero field and 6.5 mT for over 200 small molecules. In the developed computational tool chain, we first used the all-electron FHI-aims code to calculate the molecular J couplings and chemical shifts. We then fed the calculated NMR parameters into the NMR simulation package SPINACH to simulate both heteronuclear J coupling spectra at zero-field, and homonuclear J coupling spectra as spin-lock induced crossing (SLIC) spectra at ultra-low field (6.5 mT). The resulting spectra demonstrate that zero and ultra-low field NMR spectra can represent unique identifiers of chemical structure for small molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗