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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE): A new concept for ecosystem production

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail ). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUE (i.e., “declining marginal returns”); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., “inverse feedback”). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. Furthermore, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Assessment of climate variability of the Greenland ice sheet: Integration of in situ and satellite data

The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland ice sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meterological data sets. Data analysis showed the following results: (1)cloud classification based on longwave sky radiation revealed that overcast sky occurred for 25% of the time in winter, and for 15% in spring and summer respectively (winter and summer both show the same occurrence of clear sky of approximately 26%); (2) comparison of aerodynamic profile method with eddy correlation method to derive sensible and latent heat flux showed good agreement in the diurnal cycle and the turbulent fluxes were underestimated with the aerodynamic method by 10 - 30% as compared to the in situ eddy flux method; (3) the katabatic wind shows a distinct diurnal cycle with a maximum in the morning (7-9 h solar time) and a minimum in the later afternoon (18 h solar time); (4) snow grain size was modeled with a surface energy balance model (SNTHERM) and compared with in situ measurements. Sharp decreases in the modeled snow grain size, caused by accumulation events such as precipitation and deposition, could be verified with observational data; (4) radiative transfer modeling of firn supports our beliefs that the observed trends in 18 and 19 GHz passive microwave brightness temperatures are attributable to accumulation rate changes (modeling also indicates the above relationship is detectable because of the presence of depth hoar; (5) snow melt can be detected by a distinct signal in the passive microwave cross-polarized gradient ratio (19h-37v)/(19h+37v) and has been used for wet/dry snow classification; (6) top of the atmosphere (TOA) broadband albedos were derived from AVHRR visible and near infrared reflectances for the entire ice sheet from May 1990 - June 1991, and the highest albedo values are found along the southeast coast of the ice sheet which is consistent with the summer peak of precipitation due to onshore flow loaded with high water vapor content (TOA albedo values dropped to around 40% along the south-western coast during July and August due to bare ice surfaces); and (7) the net all-wave radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere is negative over the entire ice sheet except for the summer months - June-July-August (in June, the net radiation balance is slightly positive over the dry snow areas--15 W/m2).

Steffen, K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s Response to CO2 Increase: Assessing the Roles of Surface Flux and Oceanic Advection Feedbacks

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected to slow down in climate models due to greenhouse gas emissions. However, the physical mechanisms determining the rate of the projected AMOC slowdown remain unclear. Accordingly, this study isolates the roles of oceanic advection and surface flux feedbacks that might accelerate or decelerate the AMOC’s weakening using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quadrupling simulations in the CESM1.2 model. Surface flux feedbacks are isolated in partially coupled experiments in which either all surface flux components or the momentum flux responses to AMOC’s weakening that might provide feedback are suppressed, while a tracer decomposition of ocean density anomalies isolates the advection feedbacks. Comparing the ocean density components in the experiments shows that the AMOC’s response is initially determined by CO 2 -induced anomalous surface heat fluxes, and afterward, feedbacks determine its response. In the fully coupled case, surface heat flux feedback strongly promotes AMOC slowdown and causes its near shutdown, while a weaker but active AMOC is maintained when the surface flux feedback is inhibited in the partially coupled case. The positive surface heat flux feedback works by canceling out the negative oceanic heat advection feedback on deep-water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). With the heat advection feedback thus reduced, the positive salinity advection feedback becomes the dominant contributor to SPNA density changes and deep-water formation. In the partially coupled case, negative ocean heat advection feedback and the CO 2 -induced subtropical Atlantic saline anomalies imported into the SPNA play a stabilizing role. The results highlight the importance of SPNA salinity gradients and gyre circulation strength in determining the AMOC’s response rate or recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying geologic characteristics and operational decisions to meet global carbon sequestration goals

Geologic carbon sequestration is the process of injecting and storing CO 2 in subsurface reservoirs and is an essential technology for global environmental security (e.g., climate change mitigation) and economic security (e.g., CO 2 tax credits). To meet energy, economic, and environmental goals, society will have to identify vast volumes of high-capacity, low-cost, and viable storage reservoirs for sequestering CO 2 . In turn, this requires understanding how major geologic characteristics (such as reservoir depth, thickness, permeability, porosity, and temperature) and design and operational decisions (such as injection well spacing) impact CO 2 injection rates, storage capacity, and economics. Although many numerical simulation tools exist, they cannot repeat the required thousands or millions of simulations to identify ideal reservoir properties and the sensitivity and interaction between geologic parameters and operational decisions. Here, we use SCO 2 T—a fast-running, reduced-order modeling framework—to explore the sensitivity of major geologic parameters and operational decisions to engineering (CO 2 injection rates, plume dimensions, and storage capacities and effectiveness) and costs. Our results show, for the first time, benefits and impacts such as allowing CO 2 plumes to overlap, how different well spacing patterns affect CO 2 sequestration, the effects on costs of including brine treatment and disposal, and the effect of restricting injection rates to 1 MtCO 2 per y based on well limitations. We reveal multiple novel and unintuitive findings including: (i) deeper reservoirs have reduced carbon sequestration costs until injection rates reach 1 MtCO 2 per y, at which point deeper reservoirs become more expensive, (ii) thicker formations allow for increased injection rates and storage capacity, but thickness barely impacts plume areas, (iii) higher geothermal gradients result in reduced sequestration costs, unless brine treatment/disposal costs are included, at which point reservoirs having lower geothermal gradients are more economical because they produce less brine for each unit of injected CO 2 , and (iv) allowing plumes to overlap has a significantly positive impact of increasing storage capacities but has only a small influence on reducing sequestration costs. Altogether, our results illustrate new scientific conclusions to help identify suitable sites to inject and store CO 2 , to help understand the complex interaction between geology and resulting costs, and to help support the pursuit of meeting global sequestration targets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities

Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

DISCOVR strain pipeline screening – Part I: Maximum specific growth rate as a function of temperature and salinity for 38 candidate microalgae for biofuels production

Here, to identify high productivity strains for microalgal biofuels generation, the maximum specific growth rate of 38 strains was measured as a function of salinity (i.e., 5, 15, and 35 PSU) and temperature (i.e., at 8 temperatures along a linear gradient from ca. 5 to 45°C) to determine the most suitable growth medium salinity and best growing season, respectively, for outdoor raceway pond cultivation. The following strains were evaluated: Agmenellum quadruplicatum UTEX 2268, Anabaena sp. ATCC 33081, Arthrospira fusiformis UTEX 2721, Arthrospira platensis UTEX 3086, Chlorella vulgaris NREL 4-C12, Chlorella autotrophica CCMP 243, Chlorella sorokiniana DOE1044, Chlorella sorokiniana DOE 1116, Chlorella sorokiniana DOE 1412 (UTEXB3016), Chlorella vulgaris LRB AZ-1201, Chlorococcum littorale UTEX 117, Chlorococcum sp. UTEX-B P7, Chloromonas reticulata CCALA 870, Coelastrella sp. DOE 0202, Cyanobacterium sp. AB1, Micractinium reisseri NREL 14-F2, Microchloropsis gaditana CCMP1894, Microchloropsis salina CCMP 1776, Monoraphidium sp. MONOR1, Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM, Nannochloropsis oceanica CCAP 849/10, Oscillatoria cf. priestleyi CCMEE 5020.1-1, Picochlorum celeri TG2-WT-CSM/EMRE, Picochlorum oklahomensis CCMP 2329, Picochlorum renovo NREL 39-A8, Picochlorum soloecismus DOE 101, Porphyridium cruentum CCMP 675, Scenedesmus acutus LRB-AP-0401, Scenedesmus obliquus DOE 0152.z, Scenedesmus obliquus UTEX393,Scenedesmus rubescens NREL 46B-D3, Scenedesmus sp. IITRIND2, Stichococcus minor CCMP 819, Stichococcus minutus CCALA 727, Synechococcus elongatus UTEX2973.1, Tetraselmis striata LANL 1001, Tisochrysis lutea CCMP 1324, and Tribonema minus UTEXB3156. For each strain, the identity and the presence of bacterial cohorts was determined using 18S and 16S rDNA sequencing, respectively. The maximum specific growth rate versus temperature data were also used to determine the activation energies (Arrhenius equation) for most strains. For all strains, the measured salinity and temperature tolerance data were compared to those reported in the literature. The fastest growing strains were down-selected for subsequent biomass productivity measurements in climate-simulation photobioreactors, as reported in the next paper in the issue.

18S and 16S rDNA sequencing↗
NASA NTRS2015

Seasonal Variability of Saturn's Tropospheric Temperatures, Winds and Para-H2 from Cassini Far-IR Spectroscopy

Far-IR 16-1000 micrometer spectra of Saturn's hydrogen-helium continuum measured by Cassini's Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) are inverted to construct a near-continuous record of upper tropospheric (70-700 mbar) temperatures and para-H2 fraction as a function of latitude, pressure and time for a third of a saturnian year (2004-2014, from northern winter to northern spring). The thermal field reveals evidence of reversing summertime asymmetries superimposed onto the belt/zone structure. The temperature structure is almost symmetric about the equator by 2014, with seasonal lag times that increase with depth and are qualitatively consistent with radiative climate models. Localised heating of the tropospheric hazes (100-250 mbar) create a distinct perturbation to the temperature profile that shifts in magnitude and location, declining in the autumn hemisphere and growing in the spring. Changes in the para-H2 (f(sub p)) distribution are subtle, with a 0.02-0.03 rise over the spring hemisphere (200-500 mbar) perturbed by (i) low-f(sub p) air advected by both the springtime storm of 2010 and equatorial upwelling; and (ii) subsidence of high-f(sub p) air at northern high latitudes, responsible for a developing north-south asymmetry in f(sub p). Conversely, the shifting asymmetry in the para-H2 disequilibrium primarily reflects the changing temperature structure (and hence the equilibrium distribution of f(sub p)), rather than actual changes in f(sub p) induced by chemical conversion or transport. CIRS results interpolated to the same point in the seasonal cycle as re-analysed Voyager-1 observations (early northern spring) show qualitative consistency from year to year (i.e., the same tropospheric asymmetries in temperature and f(sub p)), with the exception of the tropical tropopause near the equatorial zones and belts, where downward propagation of a cool temperature anomaly associated with Saturn's stratospheric oscillation could potentially perturb tropopause temperatures, para-H2 and winds. Quantitative differences between the Cassini and Voyager epochs suggest that the oscillation is not in phase with the seasonal cycle at these tropospheric depths (i.e., it should be described as quasi-periodic rather than 'semi annual'). Variability in the zonal wind field derived from latitudinal thermal gradients is small (less than 10 m/s per scale height near the tropopause) and mostly affects the broad retrograde jets, with the notable exception of large variability on the northern flank of the equatorial jet. The meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient, and hence the 'staircase of PV' associated with spatial variations in the vigour of vertical mixing, has varied over the course of the mission but maintained its overall shape. PV gradients in latitude and altitude are used to estimate the atmospheric refractive index for the propagation of stationary planetary (Rossby) waves, predicting that such wave activity would be confined to regions of real refractivity (tropical regions plus bands at 35-45 in both hemispheres). The penetration depth of these regions into the upper troposphere is temporally variable (potentially associated with stratification changes), whereas the latitudinal structure is largely unchanged over time (associated with the zonal jet system).

Fletcher, Leigh N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Randomized Algorithms for Scientific Computing (RASC)

Randomized algorithms have propelled advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and represent a foundational research area in advancing AI for Science. Future advancements in DOE Office of Science priority areas such as climate science, astrophysics, fusion, advanced materials, combustion, and quantum computing all require randomized algorithms for surmounting challenges of complexity, robustness, and scalability. Advances in data collection and numerical simulation have changed the dynamics of scientific research and motivate the need for randomized algorithms. For instance, advances in imaging technologies such as X-ray ptychography, electron microscopy, electron energy loss spectroscopy, or adaptive optics lattice light-sheet microscopy collect hyperspectral imaging and scattering data in terabytes, at breakneck speed enabled by state-of-the-art detectors. The data collection is exceptionally fast compared with its analysis. Likewise, advances in high-performance architectures have made exascale computing a reality and changed the economies of scientific computing in the process. Floating-point operations that create data are essentially free in comparison with data movement. Thus far, most approaches have focused on creating faster hardware. Ironically, this faster hardware has exacerbated the problem by making data still easier to create. Under such an onslaught, scientists often resort to heuristic deterministic sampling schemes (e.g., low-precision arithmetic, sampling every nth element) and sacrifice potentially valuable accuracy. Dramatically better results can be achieved via randomized algorithms, reducing the data size as much as or more than naive deterministic subsampling can achieve, while retaining the high accuracy of computing on the full data set. By randomized algorithms we mean those algorithms that employ some form of randomness in internal algorithmic decisions to accelerate time to solution, increase scalability, or improve reliability. Examples include matrix sketching for solving large-scale least-squares problems (see Figure 1) and stochastic gradient descent for training machine learning models. We are not recommending heuristic methods but rather randomized algorithms that have certificates of correctness and probabilistic guarantees of optimality and near-optimality. Such approaches can be useful beyond acceleration, for example, in understanding how to avoid measure zero worst-case scenarios that plague methods such as QR matrix factorization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2000

Salinity Measurements During the Gulf Stream Experiment

The salinity of the open ocean is important for understanding ocean circulation, for understanding energy exchange with the atmosphere and for improving models to predict weather and climate. Passive microwave sensors at L-band (1.4 GHz) operating from aircraft have demonstrated that salinity can be measured with sufficient accuracy (1 psu) to be scientifically meaningful in coastal waters. However, measuring salinity in the open ocean presents unresolved issues largely because of the much greater accuracy (approx. 0.1 psu) required to be scientifically viable. In the summer of 1999 a series of measurements called, The Gulf Stream Experiment, were conducted as part of research at the Goddard Space Flight Center to test the potential for passive microwave remote sensing of salinity in the open ocean. The measurements consisted of a compliment of airborne microwave instruments (radiometers and scatterometer) and ships and drifters for surface truth. The study area was a 200 km by 100 km rectangle about 250 km east of Delaware Bay between the continental shelf waters and north wall of the Gulf Stream. The primary passive instruments were the ESTAR radiometer (L-band, H-pol) and the SLFMR radiometer (L-band, V-pol). In addition, the compliment of instruments on the aircraft included a C-band radiometer (ACMR), an ocean wave scatterometer (ROWS) and an infrared radiometer. A GPS backscatter experiment was also part of the package. These instruments were mounted on the NASA P-3 Orion aircraft. Surface salinity measurements were provided by the RN Cape Henlopen and MN Oleander (thermosalinographs) plus salinity and temperature sensors on three surface drifters deployed from the RN Cape Henopen. The primary experiment period was August 26-September 2, 1999. During this period the salinity field within the study area consisted of a gradient on the order of 2-3 psu in the vicinity of the shelf break and a warm core ring with a gradient of 1-2 psu. Detailed maps were made with the airborne sensors on August 28 and 29 and on September 2 flights were made over the surface drifters to look for effects due to a change in surface roughness resulting from the passage of Hurricane Dennis. Preliminary results show a good agreement between the microwave measurements and ship measurements of salinity. The features of the brightness temperature maps correspond well with the features of the salinity field measured by the ship and drifters and a preliminary retrieval of salinity compares well with the ship data.

LeVine, D. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Elevated Water Vapor Signal Associated With the Free Tropospheric Biomass Burning Plume Over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6–7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume–vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ∼5–6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (∼6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

Kristina Pistone↗
NASA NTRS2013

Interactive Ozone and Methane Chemistry in GISS-E2 Historical and Future Climate Simulations

The new generation GISS climate model includes fully interactive chemistry related to ozone in historical and future simulations, and interactive methane in future simulations. Evaluation of ozone, its tropospheric precursors, and methane shows that the model captures much of the largescale spatial structure seen in recent observations. While the model is much improved compared with the previous chemistry-climate model, especially for ozone seasonality in the stratosphere, there is still slightly too rapid stratospheric circulation, too little stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the Southern Hemisphere and an Antarctic ozone hole that is too large and persists too long. Quantitative metrics of spatial and temporal correlations with satellite datasets as well as spatial autocorrelation to examine transport and mixing are presented to document improvements in model skill and provide a benchmark for future evaluations. The difference in radiative forcing (RF) calculated using modeled tropospheric ozone versus tropospheric ozone observed by TES is only 0.016W/sq. m. Historical 20th Century simulations show a steady increase in whole atmosphere ozone RF through 1970 after which there is a decrease through 2000 due to stratospheric ozone depletion. Ozone forcing increases throughout the 21st century under RCP8.5 owing to a projected recovery of stratospheric ozone depletion and increases in methane, but decreases under RCP4.5 and 2.6 due to reductions in emissions of other ozone precursors. RF from methane is 0.05 to 0.18W/ sq. m higher in our model calculations than in the RCP RF estimates. The surface temperature response to ozone through 1970 follows the increase in forcing due to tropospheric ozone. After that time, surface temperatures decrease as ozone RF declines due to stratospheric depletion. The stratospheric ozone depletion also induces substantial changes in surface winds and the Southern Ocean circulation, which may play a role in a slightly stronger response per unit forcing during later decades. Tropical precipitation shifts south during boreal summer from 1850 to 1970, but then shifts northward from 1970 to 2000, following upper tropospheric temperature gradients more strongly than those at the surface.

Ozone↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the elevated water vapor signal associated with the free tropospheric biomass burning plume over the southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6-7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume-vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ~5-6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (~6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗
NASA NTRS1997

An Overview of the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment

Aerosol effects on atmospheric radiation are a leading source of uncertainty in predicting future climate. As a result, the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Program has established a Focus on Atmospheric Aerosols (IGAC/FAA) and endorsed a series of aerosol field campaigns. TARFOX, the second in the IGAC/FAA series, was designed to reduce this uncertainty by measuring aerosol properties and effects in the US eastern seaboard, where one of the world's major plumes of industrial haze moves from the continent over the Atlantic Ocean. TARFOX's objectives are to: 1. Make simultaneous measurements of: (a) aerosol effects on radiation fields, and (b) the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the aerosols causing those effects. 2. Perform a variety of closure studies by using overdetermined data sets to test the mutual consistency of measurements and calculations of a wide range of aerosol properties and effects. 3. Use the results of the closure studies to assess and reduce uncertainties in estimates of aerosol radiative forcing, as well as to guide future field programs. An important subset of the closure studies is tests and improvements of algorithms used to derive aerosol properties and radiative effects from satellite measurements. The TARFOX Intensive Field Period (IFP) was conducted July 10-31, 1996. It included coordinated measurements from four satellites (GOES-8, NOAA-14, ERS-2, LANDSAT), four aircraft (ER-2, C-130, C-131, and a modified Cessna), land sites, and ships. A variety of aerosol conditions was sampled, ranging from relatively clean behind frontal passages to moderately polluted with aerosol optical depths exceeding 0.5 at mid-visible wavelengths. The latter conditions included separate incidents of enhancements caused primarily by anthropogenic sources and another incident of enhancement apparently influenced by recent fog processing. Spatial gradients of aerosol optical thickness were sampled to aid in isolating aerosol effects from other radiative effects and to more tightly constrain closure tests, including those of satellite retrievals. This talk gives an overview of TARFOX goals, rationale, methods, and initial key findings.

Russell, P. B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

The evolution of soil microstructure and micromineralogy along a soil age gradient on the Galápagos Islands (Ecuador)

The islands of the Galápagos archipelago are of different ages due to the combination of a geostationary volcanic hotspot and the eastward movement of the Nazca tectonic plate. Taking advantage of this, a soil chronosequence (1.5–1070 ka) has recently been established covering four of the islands. This was used to investigate the temporal development of soil microstructure and micromineralogy using micromorphological methods in combination with synchrotron-based mineralogical and geochemical microanalyses. Along the chronosequence, the microstructure changed from intergrain microaggregates in the young soils to angular blocky microaggregates in the older soils. In the young soils, a high amount of vitric scoria and weatherable minerals occur, but they quickly disappear with age, and micromass increased fast. The micromorphological studies as well as micro-XRD and micro-XRF revealed increasing heterogeneity of soil microstructure and micromineralogy due to weathering and pedogenic processes until intermediate soil age. In the oldest soils, the microstructure became more uniform again, de-mixing pedofeatures like clay coatings have completely disappeared, and kaolinite, hematite and gibbsite dominate the mineralogical composition. Our study shows that the development of soil microstructure mirrors macroscopic soil profile development showing increasing differentiation until intermediate developmental stages and receding heterogeneity in highly weathered soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temporal, Spatial, and Temperature Controls on Organic Carbon Mineralization and Methanogenesis in Arctic High-Centered Polygon Soils

Warming temperatures in continuous permafrost zones of the Arctic will alter both hydrological and geochemical soil conditions, which are strongly linked with heterotrophic microbial carbon (C) cycling. Heterogeneous permafrost landscapes are often dominated by polygonal features formed by expanding ice wedges: water accumulates in low centered polygons (LCPs), and water drains outward to surrounding troughs in high centered polygons (HCPs). These geospatial differences in hydrology cause gradients in biogeochemistry, soil C storage potential, and thermal properties. Presently, data quantifying carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) release from HCP soils are needed to support modeling and evaluation of warming-induced CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from tundra soils. This study quantifies the distribution of microbial CO 2 and CH 4 release in HCPs over a range of temperatures and draws comparisons to previous LCP studies. Arctic tundra soils were initially characterized for geochemical and hydraulic properties. Laboratory incubations at −2, +4, and +8°C were used to quantify temporal trends in CO 2 and CH 4 production from homogenized active layer organic and mineral soils in HCP centers and troughs, and methanogen abundance was estimated from mcrA gene measurements. Results showed that soil water availability, organic C, and redox conditions influence temporal dynamics and magnitude of gas production from HCP active layer soils during warming. At early incubation times (2–9 days), higher CO 2 emissions were observed from HCP trough soils than from HCP center soils, but increased CO 2 production occurred in center soils at later times (>20 days). HCP center soils did not support methanogenesis, but CH 4 -producing trough soils did indicate methanogen presence. Consistent with previous LCP studies, HCP organic soils showed increased CO 2 and CH 4 production with elevated water content, but HCP trough mineral soils produced more CH 4 than LCP mineral soils. HCP mineral soils also released substantial CO 2 but did not show a strong trend in CO 2 and CH 4 release with water content. Knowledge of temporal and spatial variability in microbial C mineralization rates of Arctic soils in response to warming are key to constraining uncertainties in predictive climate models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of the Latitudinal Variability of Tropospheric Ozone in the Arctic Using the Large Number of Aircraft and Ozonesonde Observations in Early Summer 2008

The goals of the paper are to: (1) present tropospheric ozone (O3) climatologies in summer 2008 based on a large amount of measurements, during the International Polar Year when the Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements, and Models of Climate Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport (POLARCAT) campaigns were conducted (2) investigate the processes that determine O3 concentrations in two different regions (Canada and Greenland) that were thoroughly studied using measurements from 3 aircraft and 7 ozonesonde stations. This paper provides an integrated analysis of these observations and the discussion of the latitudinal and vertical variability of tropospheric ozone north of 55oN during this period is performed using a regional model (WFR-Chem). Ozone, CO and potential vorticity (PV) distributions are extracted from the simulation at the measurement locations. The model is able to reproduce the O3 latitudinal and vertical variability but a negative O3 bias of 6-15 ppbv is found in the free troposphere over 4 km, especially over Canada. Ozone average concentrations are of the order of 65 ppbv at altitudes above 4 km both over Canada and Greenland, while they are less than 50 ppbv in the lower troposphere. The relative influence of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and of ozone production related to the local biomass burning (BB) emissions is discussed using differences between average values of O3, CO and PV for Southern and Northern Canada or Greenland and two vertical ranges in the troposphere: 0-4 km and 4-8 km. For Canada, the model CO distribution and the weak correlation ( 30) of O3 and PV suggests that stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is not the major contribution to average tropospheric ozone at latitudes less than 70oN, due to the fact that local biomass burning (BB) emissions were significant during the 2008 summer period. Conversely over Greenland, significant STE is found according to the better O3 versus PV correlation ( 40) and the higher 75th PV percentile. A weak negative latitudinal summer ozone gradient -6 to -8 ppbv is found over Canada in the mid troposphere between 4 and 8 km. This is attributed to an efficient O3 photochemical production due to the BB emissions at latitudes less than 65oN, while STE contribution is more homogeneous in the latitude range 55oN to 70oN. A positive ozone latitudinal gradient of 12 ppbv is observed in the same altitude range over Greenland not because of an increasing latitudinal influence of STE, but because of different long range transport from multiple mid-latitude sources (North America, Europe and even Asia for latitudes higher than 77oN).

climatologies↗
DOE OSTI2017

Efficacy of passive sampler collection for atmospheric NO 2 isotopes under simulated environmental conditions

Rationale Nitrogen oxides or NO x (NO x = NO + NO 2 ) play an important role in air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate. The isotopic compositions of anthropogenic and natural NO 2 sources are wide‐ranging, and they can be used to constrain sources of ambient NO 2 and associated atmospheric deposition of nitrogen compounds. While passive sample collection of NO 2 isotopes has been used in field studies to determine NO x source influences on atmospheric deposition, this approach has not been evaluated for accuracy or precision under different environmental conditions. Methods The efficacy of NO 2 passive sampler collection for NO 2 isotopes was evaluated under varied temperature and relative humidity (RH) conditions in a dynamic flux chamber. The precision and accuracy of the filter NO 2 collection as nitrite (NO 2 – ) for isotopic analysis were determined using a reference NO 2 gas tank and through inter‐calibration with a modified EPA Method 7. The bacterial denitrifer method was used to convert 20 μM of collected NO 2 – or nitrate (NO 3 – ) into N 2 O and was carried out on an Isoprime continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometer. Results δ 15 N‐NO 2 values determined from passive NO 2 collection, in conditions of 11–34 °C, 1–78% RH, have an overall accuracy and precision of ±2.1 ‰, and individual run precision of ±0.6 ‰. δ 18 O‐NO 2 values obtained from passive NO 2 sampler collection, under the same conditions, have an overall precision of ± 1.3 ‰. Conclusions Suitable conditions for passive sampler collection of NO 2 isotopes are in environments ranging from 11 to 34 °C and 1 to 78% RH. The passive NO 2 isotope measurement technique provides an accurate method to determine variations in atmospheric δ 15 N‐NO 2 values and a precise method for determining atmospheric δ 18 O‐NO 2 values. The ability to measure NO 2 isotopes over spatial gradients at the same temporal resolution provides a unique perspective on the extent and seasonality of fluctuations in atmospheric NO 2 isotopic compositions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Coughlin, Justin G.↗