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Machine Learning

The absence of a robust and unified theory of cyber dynamics presents challenges and opportunities for using machine learning based data-driven approaches to further the understanding of the behavior of such complex systems. Analysts can also use machine learning approaches to gain operational insights. In order to be operationally beneficial, cybersecurity machine learning based models need to have the ability to: (1) represent a real-world system, (2) infer system properties, and (3) learn and adapt based on expert knowledge and observations. Probabilistic models and Probabilistic graphical models provide these necessary properties and are further explored in this chapter. Bayesian Networks and Hidden Markov Models are introduced as an example of a widely used data driven classification/modeling strategy.

Anomaly detection↗

Impact of Emergency Diesel Generator Reliability on Microgrids and Building-Tied Systems

Microgrids are an emerging alternative as an energy backup system for critical electric loads and have improved performance compared to the traditional architecture where a single emergency diesel generator is tied to an individual building. Both architectures are dependent on the reliability of their individual generators and a quantitative and realistic comparison of the overall system reliability of the two architectures is lacking. Using recently published work on emergency diesel generator finite reliability, a quantitative methodology is presented to compare the reliability of a microgrid architecture based on centralized emergency diesel generators to the traditional approach of generators tied to individual buildings. Three system reliability performance metrics are calculated as a function of outage duration: (1) probability to meet 100% of the critical load; (2) expected fraction of lost load; and (3) probability to meet the highest priority critical loads. It is shown that stand-alone building-tied emergency diesel generators systems, even when two emergency diesel generators are used per building, cannot provide the reliability required to sustain critical loads for a grid outage lasting multiple days. Due to their network configuration and ability to share load, diesel generator-based microgrid configurations are estimated to have = 93% probability of powering all buildings for a 2-week outage there the individual building-tied emergency diesel generator architecture has a =20% probability. Microgrids do present other susceptibilities that are site specific and should be considered including vulnerabilities associated with the on-campus distribution system and cybersecurity.

backup power↗

Blockchain Smart Contract Reference Framework and Program Logic Architecture for Transactive Energy Systems

This paper proposes a reference framework for a transactive energy market based on blockchain. The framework was designed based on the engineering requirements of a distribution-scale market; including participant needs, expected market transactions, and the cybersecurity constructs required to support a fair, secure and efficient market operation. It leverages the existing blockchain primitives to provide clear value propositions to the transactive market, including identity management (access control), data security (integrity), resiliency (decentralization, scalability and performance). The validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated using a real-time 5-min double-auction market. The results highlight its benefits while providing strong validation of applicability to blockchain within transactive energy systems.

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gupta↗

RADAMS: Resilient and adaptive alert and attention management strategy against Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks

Attacks exploiting human attentional vulnerability have posed severe threats to cybersecurity. In this work, we identify and formally define a new type of proactive attentional attacks called Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that generate a large volume of feint attacks to overload human operators and hide real attacks among feints. Here, we incorporate human factors (e.g., levels of expertise, stress, and efficiency) and empirical psychological results (e.g., the Yerkes-Dodson law and the sunk cost fallacy) to model the operators’ attention dynamics and their decision-making processes along with the real-time alert monitoring and inspection. To assist human operators in dismissing the feints and escalating the real attacks timely and accurately, we develop a Resilient and Adaptive Data-driven alert and Attention Management Strategy (RADAMS) that de-emphasizes alerts selectively based on the abstracted category labels of the alerts. RADAMS uses reinforcement learning to achieve a customized and transferable design for various human operators and evolving IDoS attacks. The integrated modeling and theoretical analysis lead to the Product Principle of Attention (PPoA), fundamental limits, and the tradeoff among crucial human and economic factors. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed strategy outperforms the default strategy and can reduce the IDoS risk by as much as 20%. Besides, the strategy is resilient to large variations of costs, attack frequencies, and human attention capacities. We have recognized interesting phenomena such as attentional risk equivalency, attacker’s dilemma, and the half-truth optimal attack strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An iterative learning and inference approach to managing dynamic cyber-vulnerabilities of complex systems

As modern systems become increasingly reliant on cyber-technologies and continue to be integrated with physical systems, managing risks from deliberate and non-deliberate sources is a significant research challenge. Unlike strictly physical systems, cyber-enabled physical systems are influenced by dynamic and evolving technologies, environments, and attack mechanisms. As a result, vulnerabilities are rapidly changing and difficult to detect and manage. While there is recent interest in the dynamic properties of performance through resilience analysis, limited research addresses the dynamic nature of cyber-system vulnerability. This paper presents a dynamic iterative learning approach to evaluate the state of health for systems as related to cyber-vulnerabilities. These time-varying system health characteristics may not be visible, but can be inferred using observable characteristics. The approach recognizes that multiple types of vulnerabilities need to be included in a holistic system health assessment. The methods are applied to the Common Vulnerability Scoring System database containing over 100,000 documented cybersecurity vulnerabilities. This work is the first to acknowledge the dynamic properties of cyber-vulnerability, while also inferring system health using observable data and hidden states of system health. This work will be of interest to managers of large-scale cyber-enabled physical systems who are seeking to prioritize system health investments.

Chatterjee, Samrat↗

Designing resilient IoT and Edge Computing with federated tinyML

The rapid growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Edge Computing (EC) has brought significant conveniences to modern society but has also greatly expanded the cyber attack surfaces, particularly as these technologies are being increasingly integrated into critical systems such as power grids, healthcare, and smart homes. Here, to improve IoT/EC’s cybersecurity posture, we leveraged Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) by employing tinyML to monitor voluminous IoT data for cyber threats while addressing devices’ resource constraints, and utilizing Federated Learning (FL) to share local detection knowledge across the system while preserving privacy. Building on our three-layer architecture combining tinyML and FL to enhance autonomous cyber attack detection, this paper demonstrated that the architecture improves detection accuracy, reduces resource consumption, and enables lightweight, secure IoT device monitoring. These results were validated using the public N-BaIoT dataset as well as real IoT network traffic data collected under multiple attack scenarios from our testbeds. Additionally, we introduced an enhanced FL methodology with a novel preprocessing stage, including federated feature selection and global preprocessor construction, to address IoT/EC data heterogeneity. We developed a physical IoT testbed for attack simulations and data collection, implemented a tinyML-powered detector for realistic model validation, and also built a virtual testbed for scalable evaluations of FL models across diverse network environments.

Cognitive cyber↗

FL‐ADS: Federated learning anomaly detection system for distributed energy resource networks

Abstract With the ongoing development of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) communication networks, the imperative for strong cybersecurity and data privacy safeguards is increasingly evident. DER networks, which rely on protocols such as Distributed Network Protocol 3 and Modbus, are susceptible to cyberattacks such as data integrity breaches and denial of service due to their inherent security vulnerabilities. This paper introduces an innovative Federated Learning (FL)‐based anomaly detection system designed to enhance the security of DER networks while preserving data privacy. Our models leverage Vertical and Horizontal Federated Learning to enable collaborative learning while preserving data privacy, exchanging only non‐sensitive information, such as model parameters, and maintaining the privacy of DER clients' raw data. The effectiveness of the models is demonstrated through its evaluation on datasets representative of real‐world DER scenarios, showcasing significant improvements in accuracy and F1‐score across all clients compared to the traditional baseline model. Additionally, this work demonstrates a consistent reduction in loss function over multiple FL rounds, further validating its efficacy and offering a robust solution that balances effective anomaly detection with stringent data privacy needs.

Purohit, Shaurya [Iowa State University Ames Iowa ↗

Automatic Generation of Event Trees and Fault Trees: A Model-Based Approach

In the past few decades, the increasing complexity of modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components whose operations may involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal hydraulics, plant operations, cybersecurity). Most computational tools used by industry and regulators for system safety and reliability assessments are still based on the traditional fault tree (FT) and event tree (ET) approach, which may not be able to capture complex interactions among system constituents. The use of simulation tools has widely increased in the past few decades to improve the fidelity of the reliability and safety analyses. However, the direct use of simulation tools as part of dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) methods is not getting traction since (1) modeling the whole system under consideration with DPRA methods may be computationally expensive and unnecessary, and (2) the manual integration of DPRA models into existing state-of-practice probabilistic risk assessment models (i.e., based on FTs and ETs) can be time consuming and prone to errors. Here, in this paper we propose a procedure to overcome this limitation by presenting several algorithms designed to automatically construct subsystem ETs and FTs from DPRA methods for integration into an existing ET/FT system model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis of AP1000 Small-Break Loss-of-Coolant Accident Using Reactor Transient Simulator

The Westinghouse Electric Company’s Advanced Passive Reactor (AP1000) is characterized by the incorporation of passive safety systems (PSSs) designed to ensure core cooling during transient events. The assessment of PSSs requires evaluation of their performance through a combination of experiments and simulations employing various thermal-hydraulic codes. In addition, detailed evaluation of PSSs for a specific reactor system transient analysis such as loss-of-coolant-accident analysis supports understanding representative integral effects test facility development and the further evolution model development and assessment process. Developing a reactor system code is a complex and time-consuming process that requires significant engineering expertise and effort. It can take several months to even years to complete in the early stages of reactor system design and analysis. However, this process can be expedited through the use of transient simulator models for similar reactor systems, which can be used for lesson learning and training purposes. This study uses the Personal Computer Transient Analyzer (PCTRAN) code. The main advantage of PCTRAN is its ease of use and ability to run faster than real time. This study presents the results obtained for a small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) for two breaks using the full version (licensed) of PCTRAN. The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the overall system behavior during the postulated SBLOCA event as well as assess the capability of the PCTRAN code to reproduce the system response during transient events. The obtained results were compared with the Westinghouse NOTRUMP system code. The PCTRAN code proved to be reliable in predicting the qualitative behavior of the system in both transient cases. As for the system response, it was found that it is contingent on the activation time of the PSSs. The differences in reactor coolant system pressure between the two codes were attributed to the critical flow model and simplification of mass and energy balance. Despite PCTRAN’s limitations, it can still provide a reasonable prediction of various reactor parameters such as pressure, mass flow rate, and void fraction during a SBLOCA scenario. It is worth noting that PCTRAN currently employs a bulk approach similar to that of the Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) and MELCOR codes. However, the upcoming version of PCTRAN will include an artificial intelligence–based detection and accident prevention system, as well as different models for different reactor components. Consequently, PCTRAN has the potential to be upgraded to match the system thermal-hydraulic codes of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and become more widely used in cybersecurity to safeguard nuclear power plants from cyberattacks.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Review of Visualization Methods for Cyber-Physical Security: Smart Grid Case Study

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) are becoming increasingly complex and interconnected as they attempt to meet the demands of evolving society. As a result, monitoring and maintaining them becomes a more complex and demanding task for control system operators and cyber defenders. While the literature on visualization techniques in the context of cybersecurity is extensive, the same cannot be said for studies on visualization for the security of cyber-physical systems. This paper aims to fill that gap by: 1) defining the main features of a visualizations workflow for security visualizations in cyber-physical systems. The workflow includes the acquisition of cyber and physical data, processing of data, selection, and configuration of both visualization tools and end-user interactions. 2) Providing an overview of cyber-physical security visualization systems, with a focus on smart grids as a case study. Finally, we use the perspectives gained from this analysis to provide insights and directions for future research and design of cyber-physical visualization techniques.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cognitive IoT and Edge Computing for Intrusion Detection with Federated TinyML

Internet of Things (IoT) and Edge Computing (EC) are rapidly becoming an integral part of the modern society. By 2030, there is estimated to be over 40 billion active and connected IoT devices [1]. This rapid progress also comes with a significant implication on cybersecurity. Back-end infrastructure and systems have a much broader attack than they did previously due to vulnerable IoT/EC devices being connected to wireless networks. This expanding attack surface is a growing concern because IoT/EC are increasingly being used in critical systems such as power grids, health care, and smart homes. To effectively address a problem of this scale, cognitive cyber methods—which can autonomously detect and react to cyber attacks as they develop—are needed. To address this, we bring Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to IoT/EC devices, using tinyML to monitor voluminous IoT data against cyber threats, and using Federated Learning (FL) to share local detection knowledge across the system while preserving privacy. We propose a novel three-layer architecture: (1) an IoT layer for tinyML-based inference, (2) an edge layer for ML model training, and (3) a cloud layer for FL operations. Using the publicly available 11-class N-BaIoT dataset [2], we demonstrate that this architecture mitigates resource constraints at the IoT layer while improving detection accuracy over standard two-layer designs. An outlier-resistant scaler, feature reduction, and quantization enable the tinyML model to maintain detection accuracy with a reduced model size. Additionally, federated learning that only utilizes the intersection (across heterogenous devices) of the reduced feature set achieves superior detection accuracy compared to locally trained models.

Li, Mingyan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000569532640)↗

AI ATAC 1: An Evaluation of Prominent Commercial Malware Detectors

This work presents an evaluation of six prominent commercial endpoint malware detectors, a network malware detector, and a file-conviction algorithm from a cyber technology vendor. The evaluation was administered as the first of the Artificial I ntelligence Applications t o Autonomous Cybersecurity (AI ATAC) prize challenges, funded by / completed in service of the US Navy. The experiment employed 100K files (50/50% benign/malicious) with a stratified distribution of file types, including ~1K zero-day program executables (increasing experiment size two orders of magnitude over previous work). We present an evaluation process of delivering a file to a fresh virtual machine donning the detection technology, waiting 90s to allow static detection, then executing the file and waiting another period for dynamic detection; this allows greater fidelity in the observational data than previous experiments, in particular, resource and time-to-detection statistics. To execute all 800K trials (100K files × 8 tools), a software framework is designed to choreograph the experiment into an automated, time-synced, and reproducible workflow with substantial parallelization. Software with base classes for this framework are provided. A cost-benefit model was configured to integrate the tools’ detection statistics into a comparable quantity by simulating costs of use. This provides a ranking methodology for cyber competitions and a lens for reasoning about the varied statistical results. The results provide insights on state of commercial malware detection.

Bridges, Robert↗

Privacy-Preserving Aggregation of Controllable Loads to Compensate Fluctuations in Solar Power

Cybersecurity and privacy are of the utmost importance for safe, reliable operation of the electric grid. It is well known that the increased connectivity/interoperability between all stakeholders (e.g., utilities, suppliers, and consumers) will enable personal information collection. Significant advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) deployment and demand response (DR) programs across the country, while enable enhanced automation, also generate energy data on individual consumers that can potentially be used for exploiting privacy. Inspired by existing works which consider DR, battery-based perturbation, and differential privacy noise adding, we novelly consider the aggregator (cluster) level privacy issue in the DR framework of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation following. Different from most of the existing works which mainly rely on the charging/discharging scheduling of rechargeable batteries, we utilize controllable building loads to serve as virtual storage devices to absorb a large portion of the PV genertaion while delicately keeping desired noisy terms to satisfy the differential privacy for the raw load profiles at the aggregator level. This not only ensures differential privacy, but also improves the DR efficiency in load following since part of the noisy signal in solar PV generation has been filtered out. In particular, a mixed integer quadratic optimization problem is formulated to optimally dispatch a population of on/off controllable loads to achieve this privacy-preserving DR service.

Dong, Jin↗

Scalable Distributed Memory Community Detection Using Vite

Graph clustering, popularly known as community detection, is a fundamental graph operation used in several applications of relevance for network analysis and cybersecurity. Community detection is an operation of partitioning a network into an arbitrary number of “communities” such that each com munity represents a tightly-knit group of nodes with relatively sparser connections to the rest of the nodes in the network. The need to compute clustering on large-scale networks necessitates the development of efficient parallel algorithms capable of exploiting modern parallel architectures. However, due to their irregular and inherently sequential nature, many of the current algorithms for community detection are challenging to parallelize. In response to the 2018 Graph Challenge, we present Vite which is a distributed-memory parallel community detection method. Vite is a parallelization of the algorithmic template provided by a widely-used serial method (Louvain). Alongside, it uses several heuristics aimed at significantly improving parallelism and performance, while preserving output quality. Using the inputs from the 2018 Graph Challenge (static and streaming), we demonstrate superior performance and high quality solutions based on four parallelization heuristics.

community detection↗

Scaling and Quality of Modularity Optimization Methods for Graph Clustering

Real-world graphs exhibit structures known as “communities” or “clusters” consisting of a group of vertices with relatively high connectivity between them, as compared to the rest of the vertices in the network. Graph clustering or community detection is a fundamental graph operation used to analyze real-world graphs occurring in the areas of computational biology, cybersecurity, electrical grids, etc. Similar to other graph algorithms, owing to irregular memory accesses and inherently sequential nature, current algorithms for community detection are challenging to parallelize. However, in order to analyze large networks, it is important to develop scalable parallel implementations of graph clustering that are capable of exploiting the architectural features of modern supercomputers. In response to the 2019 Streaming Graph Challenge, we present quality and performance analysis of our distributed- memory community detection using Vite, which is our distributed memory implementation of the popular Louvain method, on the ALCF Theta supercomputer. Clustering methods such as Louvain that rely on modularity maximization are known to suffer from the resolution limit problem, preventing identification of clusters of certain sizes. Hence, we also include quality analysis of our shared-memory implementation of the Fast-tracking Resistance method, in comparison with Louvain on the challenge datasets. Furthermore, we introduce an edge-balanced graph distribution for our distributed memory implementation, that significantly reduces communication, offering up to 80% improvement in the overall execution time. In addition to performance/quality analysis, we also include details on the power/energy consumption, and memory traffic of the distributed-memory clustering implementation using real-world graphs with over a billion edges.

Ghosh, Sayan↗

Efficient Clustering of Software Vulnerabilities using Self Organizing Map (SOM)

The common vulnerabilities and exposures (CVE) database was created with a mission to ``identify, define, and catalog publicly disclosed cybersecurity vulnerabilities''. This rich body of information can be used to enable rapid and efficient response to secure and defend cyber operations and protect critical cyber infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to develop a visual analytics tool to enable deep analysis of CVEs using unsupervised clustering techniques. We enhance our analysis by first mapping CVEs to hierarchical-classes in Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE) using information in the National Vulnerability Database (NVD). Both the mapping and the numerical representation of CVEs are enabled by V2W-BERT, which uses natural language processing of the extensive information in NVD to generate a large tabular database of 137,226 CVE entries from 1999 to 2020, where each CVE is represented by a vector of 768 numerical features. The vectorized data is processed by Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), which is an unsupervised machine learning technique for dimensionality reduction, visual representation and clustering. Using a Torus map of 6417 units, we achieve ~10-fold data compression of ~140k CVEs using SOM. The trained map is further clustered using standard K-means clustering into 138 clusters of CVEs. We conducted a brief investigation of the rich mapping of CVEs to best-matching-units to K-means clusters, as well as CVEs to CWEs. For example, this novel mapping provided insight into the role of CWE-59 and CWE-264 in several CVEs that is otherwise hard to explore in the original data. We conclude that our this novel approach will not only enable deep analysis of the complex relationships between CVEs and CWEs, but also a mechanism to quickly respond to and design mitigation actions for rapidly evolving vulnerabilities that have not been mapped to existing CWEs.

Panchal, Khyati↗

Machine Learning-based Cyber-Physical Anomaly Detection in Wide Area Voltage Control Systems

Wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) are widely deployed in power grid to improve the voltage stability in transmission system using Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) devices. The WAVCS relies on wide-area measurement and control signals for closed-loop control of FACTS devices to improve the transient voltage stability in power grid in real-time. Since the WAVCS utilizes a cyber-layer communication during its normal operation, they are susceptible to cyber attacks from adversaries which can lead to a voltage collapse if the attacks go undetected and unmitigated. This paper proposes a supervised machine learning (ML)-based anomaly detection algorithm for detecting various stealthy cyber attacks in the context of WAVCS cybersecurity. In particular, a fuzzy logic-based wide-area controller, as proposed by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), is implemented on the Kundur’s four machine two-area system that is integrated with a static var compensator (SVC) to improve voltage profile on sensitive buses. Later, different types of data integrity attacks, including pulse and ramp attacks, are considered on the wide-area measurement and control signals to analyze the performance of the proposed anomaly detector. Our experimental evaluation shows a promising performance with a high true-positive rate (more than 99%) and low false-negative rate (less than 1%) while exhibiting a small prediction time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Cryptographic Method for Defense Against MiTM Cyber Attack in the Electricity Grid Supply Chain

Critical infrastructures such as the electricity grid can be severely impacted by cyber-attacks on its supply chain. Hence, having a robust cybersecurity infrastructure and management system for the electricity grid is a high priority. This paper proposes a cyber-security protocol for defense against man-in-the-middle (MiTM) attacks to the supply chain, which uses encryption and cryptographic multi-party authentication. A cyber-physical simulator is utilized to simulate the power system, control system, and security layers. The correctness of the attack modeling and the cryptographic security protocol against this MiTM attack is demonstrated in four different attack scenarios.

Paul, Shuva↗