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Determining economic benefits of satellite data in short-range forecasting

The chances of enhanced short term weather predictions and economic benefits from the use of GOES satellite data were examined. Results for a meteorological consulting firm before and after the introduction of GOES data were chosen as the method, and monetary benefits were selected as the measure. Services were provided for use by road and street departments, commodities dealers, and marine clients of the consulting firm. The Man-computer Interactive Data Access Program (McIDAS) was employed to furnish 1/2 hour visual or IR imagery for remote access. The commodities clients reconnected the GOES real-time imagery once the study was completed, while the consulting firm, which was personnel and not equipment intensive, did not. Further development of the flexibility of access to the GOES data and improvements in the projected grids are indicated.

Suchman, D.↗

Symmetric Phase-Only Filtering in Particle-Image Velocimetry

Symmetrical phase-only filtering (SPOF) can be exploited to obtain substantial improvements in the results of data processing in particle-image velocimetry (PIV). In comparison with traditional PIV data processing, SPOF PIV data processing yields narrower and larger amplitude correlation peaks, thereby providing more-accurate velocity estimates. The higher signal-to-noise ratios associated with the higher amplitude correlation peaks afford greater robustness and reliability of processing. SPOF also affords superior performance in the presence of surface flare light and/or background light. SPOF algorithms can readily be incorporated into pre-existing algorithms used to process digitized image data in PIV, without significantly increasing processing times. A summary of PIV and traditional PIV data processing is prerequisite to a meaningful description of SPOF PIV processing. In PIV, a pulsed laser is used to illuminate a substantially planar region of a flowing fluid in which particles are entrained. An electronic camera records digital images of the particles at two instants of time. The components of velocity of the fluid in the illuminated plane can be obtained by determining the displacements of particles between the two illumination pulses. The objective in PIV data processing is to compute the particle displacements from the digital image data. In traditional PIV data processing, to which the present innovation applies, the two images are divided into a grid of subregions and the displacements determined from cross-correlations between the corresponding sub-regions in the first and second images. The cross-correlation process begins with the calculation of the Fourier transforms (or fast Fourier transforms) of the subregion portions of the images. The Fourier transforms from the corresponding subregions are multiplied, and this product is inverse Fourier transformed, yielding the cross-correlation intensity distribution. The average displacement of the particles across a subregion results in a displacement of the correlation peak from the center of the correlation plane. The velocity is then computed from the displacement of the correlation peak and the time between the recording of the two images. The process as described thus far is performed for all the subregions. The resulting set of velocities in grid cells amounts to a velocity vector map of the flow field recorded on the image plane. In traditional PIV processing, surface flare light and bright background light give rise to a large, broad correlation peak, at the center of the correlation plane, that can overwhelm the true particle- displacement correlation peak. This has made it necessary to resort to tedious image-masking and background-subtraction procedures to recover the relatively small amplitude particle-displacement correlation peak. SPOF is a variant of phase-only filtering (POF), which, in turn, is a variant of matched spatial filtering (MSF). In MSF, one projects a first image (denoted the input image) onto a second image (denoted the filter) as part of a computation to determine how much and what part of the filter is present in the input image. MSF is equivalent to cross-correlation. In POF, the frequency-domain content of the MSF filter is modified to produce a unitamplitude (phase-only) object. POF is implemented by normalizing the Fourier transform of the filter by its magnitude. The advantage of POFs is that they yield correlation peaks that are sharper and have higher signal-to-noise ratios than those obtained through traditional MSF. In the SPOF, these benefits of POF can be extended to PIV data processing. The SPOF yields even better performance than the POF approach, which is uniquely applicable to PIV type image data. In SPOF as now applied to PIV data processing, a subregion of the first image is treated as the input image and the corresponding subregion of the second image is treated as the filter. The Fourier transforms from both the firs and second- image subregions are normalized by the square roots of their respective magnitudes. This scheme yields optimal performance because the amounts of normalization applied to the spatial-frequency contents of the input and filter scenes are just enough to enhance their high-spatial-frequency contents while reducing their spurious low-spatial-frequency content. As a result, in SPOF PIV processing, particle-displacement correlation peaks can readily be detected above spurious background peaks, without need for masking or background subtraction.

Wemet, Mark P.↗

BAYESIAN CALIBRATION OF SAFETY CODES USING DATA FROM SEPARATE-AND INTEGRAL EFFECTS TESTS

Large-scale system codes for simulation of safety performance of nuclear plants may contain parameters whose values are not known very accurately. In order to be able to use the results of these simulation codes with confidence, it is important to learn how the uncertainty on the values of these parameters affects the output of the codes. New information from tests or operating experience is incorporated into safety codes by a process known as calibration, which reduces uncertainty in the output of the safety code, and thereby improves its support for decision-making. Modern analysis capabilities afford very significant improvements on classical ways of doing calibration, and the work reported here implements some of those improvements. The key innovation has come from development of safety code surrogate model (code emulator) construction and prediction algorithms. A surrogate is needed for calibration of plant-scale simulation codes because the multivariate nature of the problem (i.e., the need to adjust multiple uncertain parameters at once to fit multiple pieces of new information) calls for multiple evaluations of performance, which, for a computation-intensive model, makes calibration very computation-intensive. Use of a fast surrogate makes the calibration processes used here with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling feasible. Moreover, most traditional surrogates do not provide uncertainty information along with their predictions, but the Gaussian Process (GP) based code surrogates used here do. This improves the soundness of the code calibration process. Results are demonstrated on a simplified scenario with data from Separate and Integral Effect Tests.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Creation of a Robust and Generalizable Machine Learning Classifier for Patient Ventilator Asynchrony

Background: As healthcare increasingly digitizes, streaming waveform data is being made available from an variety of sources, but there still remains a paucity of performant clinical decision support systems. For example, in the intensive care unit (ICU) existing automated alarm systems typically rely on simple thresholding that result in frequent false positives. Recurrent false positive alerts create distrust of alarm mechanisms that can be directly detrimental to patient health. To improve patient care in the ICU, we need alert systems that are both pervasive, and accurate so as to be informative and trusted by providers. Objective: We aimed to develop a machine learning-based classifier to detect abnormal waveform events using the use case of mechanical ventilation waveform analysis, and the detection of harmful forms of ventilation delivery to patients. We specifically focused on detecting injurious subtypes of patient-ventilator asynchrony (PVA).Methods: Using a dataset of breaths recorded from 35 different patients, we used machine learning to create computational models to automatically detect, and classify two types of injurious PVA, double trigger asynchrony (DTA), breath stacking asynchrony (BSA). We examined the use of synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) to overcome class imbalance problems, varied methods for feature selection, and use of ensemble methods to optimize the performance of our model. Results: We created an ensemble classifier that is able to accurately detect DTA at a sensitivity/specificity of 0.960/0.975, BSA at sensitivity/specificity of 0.944/0.987, and non-PVA events at sensitivity/specificity of .967/.980. Conclusions: Our results suggest that it is possible to create a high-performing machine learning-based model for detecting PVA in mechanical ventilator waveform data in spite of both intra-patient, and inter-patient variability in waveform patterns, and the presence of clinical artifacts like cough and suction procedures. Our work highlights the importance of addressing class imbalance in clinical data sets, and the combined use of statistical methods and expert knowledge in feature selection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scenario driven data modelling: a method for integrating diverse sources of data and data streams

Background: Biology is rapidly becoming a data intensive, data-driven science. It is essential that data is represented and connected in ways that best represent its full conceptual content and allows both automated integration and data driven decision-making. Recent advancements in distributed multi-relational directed graphs, implemented in the form of the Semantic Web make it possible to deal with complicated heterogeneous data in new and interesting ways. Results: This paper presents a new approach, scenario driven data modelling (SDDM), that integrates multirelational directed graphs with data streams. SDDM can be applied to virtually any data integration challenge with widely divergent types of data and data streams. In this work, we explored integrating genetics data with reports from traditional media. SDDM was applied to the New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase gene (NDM-1), an emerging global health threat. The SDDM process constructed a scenario, created a RDF multi-relational directed graph that linked diverse types of data to the Semantic Web, implemented RDF conversion tools (RDFizers) to bring content into the Sematic Web, identified data streams and analytical routines to analyse those streams, and identified user requirements and graph traversals to meet end-user requirements. Conclusions: We provided an example where SDDM was applied to a complex data integration challenge. The process created a model of the emerging NDM-1 health threat, identified and filled gaps in that model, and constructed reliable software that monitored data streams based on the scenario derived multi-relational directed graph. The SDDM process significantly reduced the software requirements phase by letting the scenario and resulting multi-relational directed graph define what is possible and then set the scope of the user requirements. Approaches like SDDM will be critical to the future of data intensive, data-driven science because they automate the process of converting massive data streams into usable knowledge.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Mathematical modelling the pathway of genomic instability in lung cancer

Genomic instability plays a significant role in lung cancer. Although substantial research has been conducted using both clinical and theoretical studies, it is still a hotly debated issue to whether genomic instability is necessary or whether genomic instability precedes oncogenes activation and tumor suppressor genes inactivation for lung cancer. In response to this issue, we come up with a mathematical model incorporating effects of genomic instability to investigate the genomic instability pathway of human lung cancer. The presented model are applied to match the incidence rate data of lung cancer from the Life Span Study cohort of the atomic bomb survivors in Nagasaki and Hiroshima and the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results registry in the United States. Model results suggest that genomic instability is necessary in the tumorigenesis of lung cancer, and genomic instability has no significant impact on the net proliferation rate of cells by statistical criteria. By comparing the results of the LSS data to those of the SEER data, we conclude that the genomic instability pathway exhibits a sensitivity to radiation exposure, more intensive in male patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Search for solar signals in GOES imagery and cloud climatology analysis

The digitization and analysis of 16mm GOES IR imagery to identify spatial and temporal variation in clouds is discussed, along with a cloud climatology analysis. Recently added to the Interactive Graphics Package was a Computer Image Analysis System. This system allows many new imaging techniques. One of the possibilities is the analysis of overall light intensity variations in six 10 degree square boxes across the intertropical convergence zone. This technique is discussed, as is a preliminary analysis of unnormalized data.

Markson, R. J.↗

Optical measurements pertaining to Space Station solar dynamic power systems

The Space Station solar dynamic power system is a hybrid of solar photovoltaic and solar dynamic systems, the latter of which uses a parabolic reflector to collect solar energy. This paper describes analytical results of an off-axis solar illumination on the intensity distribution in arbitrary target planes perpendicular to the axis of a parabolic reflector. Such computational capability would make it possible to predict optical intensity distributions resulting from off-axis angles of incident radiation on such target planes. To validate the computer code, experimental optical measurements were performed on the multifaceted paraboloidal collecor at the Solar Dynamic Test Facility at Rockedyne's Santa Susana Field Laboratory. The experimental data compared reasonably well with the calculated values.

Holly, S.↗

High-performance mass storage system for workstations

Reduced Instruction Set Computer (RISC) workstations and Personnel Computers (PC) are very popular tools for office automation, command and control, scientific analysis, database management, and many other applications. However, when using Input/Output (I/O) intensive applications, the RISC workstations and PC's are often overburdened with the tasks of collecting, staging, storing, and distributing data. Also, by using standard high-performance peripherals and storage devices, the I/O function can still be a common bottleneck process. Therefore, the high-performance mass storage system, developed by Loral AeroSys' Independent Research and Development (IR&D) engineers, can offload a RISC workstation of I/O related functions and provide high-performance I/O functions and external interfaces. The high-performance mass storage system has the capabilities to ingest high-speed real-time data, perform signal or image processing, and stage, archive, and distribute the data. This mass storage system uses a hierarchical storage structure, thus reducing the total data storage cost, while maintaining high-I/O performance. The high-performance mass storage system is a network of low-cost parallel processors and storage devices. The nodes in the network have special I/O functions such as: SCSI controller, Ethernet controller, gateway controller, RS232 controller, IEEE488 controller, and digital/analog converter. The nodes are interconnected through high-speed direct memory access links to form a network. The topology of the network is easily reconfigurable to maximize system throughput for various applications. This high-performance mass storage system takes advantage of a 'busless' architecture for maximum expandability. The mass storage system consists of magnetic disks, a WORM optical disk jukebox, and an 8mm helical scan tape to form a hierarchical storage structure. Commonly used files are kept in the magnetic disk for fast retrieval. The optical disks are used as archive media, and the tapes are used as backup media. The storage system is managed by the IEEE mass storage reference model-based UniTree software package. UniTree software will keep track of all files in the system, will automatically migrate the lesser used files to archive media, and will stage the files when needed by the system. The user can access the files without knowledge of their physical location. The high-performance mass storage system developed by Loral AeroSys will significantly boost the system I/O performance and reduce the overall data storage cost. This storage system provides a highly flexible and cost-effective architecture for a variety of applications (e.g., realtime data acquisition with a signal and image processing requirement, long-term data archiving and distribution, and image analysis and enhancement).

Chiang, T.↗

Interpreting Assemblages with Titanite (Sphene): It Does not have to be Greek to You.

Assemblages with titanite, pyroxene(s), olivine, ilmenite, magnetite, and quartz can be used to constrain the intensive and compositional variables that operate during crystallization. Such assemblages are relatively rare in metamorphic rocks, but they are more common in igneous rocks and more frequently reported in plutonic than volcanic rocks. We used the program QUILF, enhanced with thermodynamic data for titanite, to compute stable reactions among titanite (CaTiOSiO4), Fe-Mg-Ti ilmenite and magnetite (hereafter ilmenite and magnetite), Ca-Mg-Fe pyroxenes and olivine, and quartz, and to evaluate some of the factors that control titanite stability. Calculations at 1, 3, and 6 Kbar and 650, 850, 1100 0 C, in the system CaO - MgO - FeO Fe2O3 - TiO2 - SiO2, suggest that the reactions: Augitc + Ilmenite = Titanite + Magnetite + Quartz and Augite + Ilmenite + Quartz = Titanite + Orthopyroxene, impose well defined fugacity of O2, alpha(sub SiO2), , and compositional restrictions to the assemblages: (1) Titanite + Magnetite + Quartz, (2) Titanite + Orthopyroxene, (3) Augite + Ilmenite, and consequently titanite stability. From our calculations in this system we can draw the following general conclusions: (1) The assemblage Titanite + Magnetite + Quartz is always a good indicator of relatively high fugacity of O2, and it is likely more common in relatively iron-rich bulk compositions and for decreasing temperature and pressure conditions. (2) At high temperatures (>= 650 C) titanite is not stable in quartz-saturated rocks that contain the assemblage Orthopyroxene + Augite + Ilmenite + Magnetite. (3) In quartz-saturated rocks the coexistence of titanite and magnetite with either orthopyroxene or olivine requires a confluence of conditions relating bulk composition, fugacity of O2, and slow cooling. Thus, such assemblages must be rare. (4) Regardless of T and fugacity of O2 conditions, and bulk-composition, titanite is not stable in quartz-absent rocks that contain Olivine + Orthopyroxene + Augite + Ilmenite + Magnetite. Decreasing temperature and pressure conditions appear to favor titanite crystallization, thus, it is not unsurprising that titanite is frequently observed in slowly cooled rocks, albeit, in association with amphibole. We argue that the titanite + amphibole association is likely favored by high water activity, regardless of oxygen fugacity. Because water activity increases during crystallization of a pluton, the association titanite + amphibole, and consequently titanite, is likely to be more common in plutonic rocks than in volcanic rocks.

Xirouchakis, Dimitrios M.↗

Search and Rescue under the Forest Canopy using Multiple UAS

We consider the problem of multi-robot search and rescue under the forest canopy. Forest is a particularly challenging environment for collaborative mapping and exploration, mainly due to the existence of severe perceptual aliasing, which hinders reliable mutual localization and map fusion. Our proposed system features unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with onboard sensing and autonomy. Each UAV runs a lightweight filtering algorithm for local state estimation, and a dynamic-aware frontier selection algorithm for fast exploration. The essential and computationally intensive task of collaborative simultaneous localization and mapping (CSLAM) is performed at a central ground station. To handle perceptual aliasing, we make use of stable landmarks extracted from trees, which significantly improve precision and recall during place recognition. Furthermore, to recover from incorrect pairwise data associations during loop closure, we propose a novel procedure for global data association based on recently developed techniques on cycle consistent multiway matching. Our algorithm returns a global data association that is guaranteed to be cycle consistent, and is shown to significantly improve precision compared to the input pairwise associations. The overall multi-UAV system is extensively validated during real-world collaborative exploration missions in a forest at NASA Langley Research Center.

Multi-robot systems↗

A Global Land Cover Training Dataset From 1984 to 2020

State-of-the-art cloud computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) enable regional-to-global land cover and land cover change mapping with machine learning algorithms. However, collection of high-quality training data, which is necessary for accurate land cover mapping, remains costly and labor-intensive. To address this need, we created a global database of nearly 2 million training units spanning the period from 1984 to 2020 for seven primary and nine secondary land cover classes. Our training data collection approach leveraged GEE and machine learning algorithms to ensure data quality and biogeographic representation. We sampled the spectral-temporal feature space from Landsat imagery to efficiently allocate training data across global ecoregions and incorporated publicly available and collaborator-provided datasets to our database. To reflect the underlying regional class distribution and post-disturbance landscapes, we strategically augmented the database. We used a machine learning-based cross-validation procedure to remove potentially mis-labeled training units. Our training database is relevant for a wide array of studies such as land cover change, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, urban development, among many others.

Radost Stanimirova↗

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A digitally reconstructed radiograph algorithm calculated from first principles

Purpose: To develop an algorithm for computing realistic digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) that match real cone-beam CT (CBCT) projections with no artificial adjustments. Methods: The authors used measured attenuation data from cone-beam CT projection radiographs of different materials to obtain a function to convert CT number to linear attenuation coefficient (LAC). The effects of scatter, beam hardening, and veiling glare were first removed from the attenuation data. Using this conversion function the authors calculated the line integral of LAC through a CT along rays connecting the radiation source and detector pixels with a ray-tracing algorithm, producing raw DRRs. The effects of scatter, beam hardening, and veiling glare were then included in the DRRs through postprocessing. Results: The authors compared actual CBCT projections to DRRs produced with all corrections (scatter, beam hardening, and veiling glare) and to uncorrected DRRs. Algorithm accuracy was assessed through visual comparison of projections and DRRs, pixel intensity comparisons, intensity histogram comparisons, and correlation plots of DRR-to-projection pixel intensities. In general, the fully corrected algorithm provided a small but nontrivial improvement in accuracy over the uncorrected algorithm. The authors also investigated both measurement- and computation-based methods for determining the beam hardening correction, and found the computation-based method to be superior, as it accounted for nonuniform bowtie filter thickness. The authors benchmarked the algorithm for speed and found that it produced DRRs in about 0.35 s for full detector and CT resolution at a ray step-size of 0.5 mm. Conclusions: The authors have demonstrated a DRR algorithm calculated from first principles that accounts for scatter, beam hardening, and veiling glare in order to produce accurate DRRs. The algorithm is computationally efficient, making it a good candidate for iterative CT reconstruction techniques that require a data fidelity term based on the matching of DRRs and projections.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Rapid retrieval of first-order spatiotemporal distortions for ultrashort laser pulses

High-intensity, ultrashort laser sources are a foundational pillar for High-Energy-Density (HED) physics, and as the repetition-rates of these systems increase, diagnostics must be developed to match their data collection speed. Characterization of any spatiotemporal distortions in the laser pulse is necessary in order to standardize results across facilities. Here, we have previously developed a laser diagnostic called Spatially and Temporally Resolved Intensity and Phase Evaluation Device: Full Information from a Single Hologram, or STRIPED FISH, to measure the full spatiotemporal laser electric field on a single shot. In order to provide rapid feedback, we here adapt the STRIPED FISH retrieval algorithm, which typically has computation times of up to 30 minutes due to the high spatial resolution of the device and its retrieval of the complete four-dimensional pulse field, to distill the key electric field quantities into a handful of scalars for rapid assessment of the pulse's first order distortions. Here, our new, rapid non-iterative retrieval algorithm is validated with simulated and experimental data, and it provides, within seconds, the same first-order information as given by the full analysis. This algorithm is suitable for on-shot assessment of spatiotemporal distortions and can be adapted to assess high repetition-rate laser quality in HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Energy-Efficient and Resilient Infrastructure: Simulation, Validation, and Installation

Advanced, high-performance computing at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has enabled access to vast data resources with cutting-edge software techniques to understand, design, plan for, and maintain energy-efficient and resilient infrastructure. We have focused on cities and airports, but the technology we have developed will easily translate to seaports, inland ports, military installations, or other complex and large-scale energy-intensive systems. We can digitally simulate and explore current and future scenarios to make datadriven decisions for optimizing advanced energy systems, transportation and building operations, infrastructure planning and expansion, and battery storage to guide short- and long-term investments, electrification strategies, and integration of new technologies.

Athena↗

Iterative pass optimization of sequence data

The problem of determining the minimum-cost hypothetical ancestral sequences for a given cladogram is known to be NP-complete. This "tree alignment" problem has motivated the considerable effort placed in multiple sequence alignment procedures. Wheeler in 1996 proposed a heuristic method, direct optimization, to calculate cladogram costs without the intervention of multiple sequence alignment. This method, though more efficient in time and more effective in cladogram length than many alignment-based procedures, greedily optimizes nodes based on descendent information only. In their proposal of an exact multiple alignment solution, Sankoff et al. in 1976 described a heuristic procedure--the iterative improvement method--to create alignments at internal nodes by solving a series of median problems. The combination of a three-sequence direct optimization with iterative improvement and a branch-length-based cladogram cost procedure, provides an algorithm that frequently results in superior (i.e., lower) cladogram costs. This iterative pass optimization is both computation and memory intensive, but economies can be made to reduce this burden. An example in arthropod systematics is discussed. c2003 The Willi Hennig Society. Published by Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

NASA Discipline Evolutionary Biology↗