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NASA NTRS2003

Vector-Ordering Filter Procedure for Data Reduction

The vector-ordering filter (VOF) technique involves a procedure for sampling a large population of data vectors to select a subset of data vectors that fully characterize the state space of the large population. The VOF technique enables a large reduction of the volume of data that must be handled in the automated monitoring system and method discussed in the two immediately preceding articles. In so doing, the VOF technique enables the development of data-driven mathematical models of a monitored asset from sets of data that would otherwise exceed the memory capacities of conventional engineering computers. Data-driven mathematical models have been shown to offer high fidelity for purposes of control and monitoring of assets. In practice, a collection of asset-operating observations is acquired with the intention that the collection contain observations characteristic of the full dynamic range of operation of the asset. Often, such a collection contains an extremely large number of observations, many of which are redundant. The VOF technique fills the need for a means to extract, from the original collection of observational data, a reduced data matrix that excludes redundant data while maintaining the full statistical character and dynamic range of the original data. The reduced data matrix can then be used as the input data for development of a mathematical model of the monitored asset, or as training data for a neural-network substitute for an explicit mathematical model of the asset. Alternatively, the reduced data matrix can, itself, be used directly as a mathematical model of the monitored asset, as is commonly done in multivariate state-estimation techniques. The original data are collected from the asset over a range of operating states and are put in matrix form. Each column vector in the original data matrix represents the signal values acquired at a particular operational state of the asset. Thus, the number of columns of the original data matrix equals the number of observed states and the number of rows in this matrix equals the number of signals acquired at each observation. In the VOF technique, one extracts the reduced data matrix from the original data matrix through the selection of a representative subset of the column (state) vectors.

Bickford, Randall L.↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Deterministic and Probabilistic Framework for Forecasting of Time-Series Damage States and Associated End-of-lIfe of a Pressurizer Water Reactor Surge Line under Design-Basis and Grid-Load-Following Loading Conditions

Argonne National Laboratory in support of the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. The present semi-annual report covers the period between May 2018 and September 2018. In this report, we present the work performed to further improve the capability for structural integrity prediction. Part of this work focused on validating a computational fluid dynamics model for modeling thermal stratification. We also present finite element (FE) model based thermal-mechanical stress analysis of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) surge line under grid-load-following loading condition. In addition, we present work related to end-of-life prediction of a PWR surge line based on ASME code and NUREG-6909 deterministic approaches under design-basis and grid-load-following conditions. Our research in this report period also majorly involved with the development of a strategy for probabilistic fatigue life estimation. First, we applied a Weibull probabilistic modeling approach based on end-of-life fatigue data (traditional S~N data under in-air and PWR water conditions) to estimate the probabilistic life for a given strain amplitude. Second, we developed a data analytics based Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) model for probabilistic modeling of time-series fatigue damage states and the associated probabilistic end-of-life of a component. Unlike the Weibull type approach, the MCMC type may not require a large number of fatigue tests for estimating the end-of-life for given loading and environmental conditions. We demonstrated the use of this framework through symmetric fatigue tests (stress- or strain-ontrolled tests either under in-air or PWR-water conditions) obtained from our earlier experiments. The MCMC model can use base time-series data either obtained from a model or fatigue experiment. Since experimental data are typically more accurate than model-calculated data, we used experiment-based time-series data to demonstrate the MCMC framework. However, when performing a complex experiment is not possible (due to time and costs involved), a model-based approach can be used to generate the time-series data. Similar model-based data are presented in our earlier report (e.g. for cyclic hardening damage states of a PWR surge line under constant amplitude and design-basis loading [1]). However, for the MCMC work in this report, we used experiment-based time-series damage states obtained from fatigue experiments under design-basis and grid-load-following loading conditions. The experimental loading inputs were based on thermal-mechanical FE model results of a typical PWR surge line. Then, we used the experimental time-series damage state data for forecasting the probabilistic time-series damage states and end-of-life of the PWR surge line. Based on this MCMC modeling strategy, and with the assumed loading, environment and thermal-mechanical boundary conditions, we have estimated that a 316SS-pure base metal PWR surge line would survive at least 159 years with zero failure probability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automated identification and calculation of prompt effects in kinetic mechanisms using statistical models

The kinetics of prompt dissociation involves rovibrationally excited species (generally formed by exothermic reactions) which may dissociate or isomerize prior to thermalization via collisions with the bath gas. Treating such rovibrationally excited species (so-called "hot" species) with standard kinetic phenomenology may result in incorrect macroscopic representation of their reactivity. Here this work presents the first fully automated methodology for the calculation of prompt effects of a chosen species in a kinetic mechanism, including (i) reaction selection; (ii) theoretical calculation of rate constants and prompt branching fractions; and (iii) final rate constant fitting. The energy partition between hot fragments is estimated using a variety of statistical models, including a new physically sound microcanonical statistical model based on the rovibrational density of states of the fragments. The methodology is validated against literature data for the prompt dissociations of HCO and C 3 H 7 radicals. The microcanonical statistical model is in better agreement with trajectory simulations for larger species and is thus applicable for practical systems that typically involve large molecules, for which direct dynamics calculations are impractical. The automated workflow is applied to the evaluation of the effects of prompt dissociation for two isomeric radicals C 4 H 7 1-3 (1-methylallyl) and C 4 H 7 1-4 (3-buten-1-yl). Twelve H-atom abstraction reactions are selected and the corresponding rate constants are computed with first principles theory. The microcanonical statistical model predicts that prompt dissociations of C 4 H 7 1-3 and C 4 H 7 1-4 are already significant at 1000K, resulting in differences of up to an order of magnitude at 2000K with respect to the phenomenological thermal rate constants. To illustrate the effects of prompt dissociation on simulations of experimental data, the calculated prompt rate constants are implemented in both CRECK and C3MechV3.3 kinetic mechanisms. Simulations of experimental flame data illustrate the noticeable impact of prompt dissociation kinetics on the high-temperature combustion reactivity of C 4 H 8 -1 and C 4 H 8 -2.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental evaluation of thermal-fluids performance of Helium-Cooled Flat Plate (HCFP) divertor

Various helium (He)-cooled solid-tungsten (W) divertor concepts have been proposed for long-pulse magnetic fusion energy reactors. Among these concepts, the He-cooled flat plate divertor (HCFP) modules have the largest plasma-facing surface area of ~0.2 m 2 . Simulations have shown that the most recent version of the design can withstand heat fluxes as great as 8 MW/m 2 . Earlier experimental studies of a single shortened HCFP cooling unit with a slot length of 7.6 cm used air at ambient temperature and pressures below 0.6 MPa. Here, we present initial experimental studies of a copper alloy and steel test section modeling a shortened HCFP cooling unit using He at prototypical pressure of 10 MPa, inlet temperatures T i ≤ 200 °C and steady-state incident heat fluxes q" ≤ 1.2 MW/m 2 . Results for Nusselt number Nu as a function of Reynolds number Re were obtained for Re = 1.2×10 4 –3.4×10 4 , and used to develop a Nu(Re) correlation and validate numerical models of the test section using commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software. Simulations with this model are performed to evaluate the effect of the shortened slot. Furthermore, these analyses are used to estimate the thermal-fluids performance of the HCFP under prototypical conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Is the Local Ion Density Sufficient to Drive NaCl Nucleation from the Melt and Aqueous Solution?

Even though nucleation is ubiquitous in different science and engineering problems, investigating nucleation is extremely difficult due to the complicated ranges of time and length scales involved. In this work, we simulate NaCl nucleation in both molten and aqueous environments using enhanced sampling of all-atom molecular dynamics with deep-learning-based estimation of reaction coordinates. By incorporating various structural order parameters and learning the reaction coordinate as a function thereof, we achieve significantly improved sampling relative to traditional ad hoc descriptions of what drives nucleation, particularly in an aqueous medium. Our results reveal a one-step nucleation mechanism in both environments, with reaction coordinate analysis highlighting the importance of local ion density in distinguishing solid and liquid states. However, although fluctuations in the local ion density are necessary to drive nucleation, they are not sufficient. Our analysis shows that near the transition states, descriptors such as enthalpy and local structure become crucial. Furthermore, our protocol proposed here enables robust nucleation analysis and phase sampling and could offer insights into nucleation mechanisms for generic small molecules in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1987

Simplified solution for a class of fading memory filters

A fading memory filter is a least squares estimator (LSE) that applies an exponentially decaying weight to past measurements. When compared with a standard Kalman filter, its key advantages are asymptotic stability and reduced sensitivity to modeling errors. This paper derives a simple solution for a class of fading memory filters, resulting in a reduction in computational complexity. Steady state filter solutions are obtained for second- and third-order filters used in a global positioning system (GPS) receiver for high dynamic vehicles.

Statman, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2005

CORRELATED ERRORS IN EARTH POINTING MISSIONS

Two different Earth-pointing missions dealing with attitude control and dynamics changes illustrate concerns with correlated error sources and coupled effects that can occur. On the OrbView-2 (OV-2) spacecraft, the assumption of a nearly-inertially-fixed momentum axis was called into question when a residual dipole bias apparently changed magnitude. The possibility that alignment adjustments and/or sensor calibration errors may compensate for actual motions of the spacecraft is discussed, and uncertainties in the dynamics are considered. Particular consideration is given to basic orbit frequency and twice orbit frequency effects and their high correlation over the short science observation data span. On the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft, the switch to a contingency Kalman filter control mode created changes in the pointing error patterns. Results from independent checks on the TRMM attitude using science instrument data are reported, and bias shifts and error correlations are discussed. Various orbit frequency effects are common with the flight geometry for Earth pointing instruments. In both dual-spin momentum stabilized spacecraft (like OV-2) and three axis stabilized spacecraft with gyros (like TRMM under Kalman filter control), changes in the initial attitude state propagate into orbit frequency variations in attitude and some sensor measurements. At the same time, orbit frequency measurement effects can arise from dynamics assumptions, environment variations, attitude sensor calibrations, or ephemeris errors. Also, constant environment torques for dual spin spacecraft have similar effects to gyro biases on three axis stabilized spacecraft, effectively shifting the one-revolution-per-orbit (1-RPO) body rotation axis. Highly correlated effects can create a risk for estimation errors particularly when a mission switches an operating mode or changes its normal flight environment. Some error effects will not be obvious from attitude sensor measurement residuals, so some independent checks using imaging sensors are essential and derived science instrument attitude measurements can prove quite valuable in assessing the attitude accuracy.

Steve Bilanow↗

NASA NTRS2007

Radiometric Calibration of the AWiFS Using Vicarious Calibration Techniques

A radiometric calibration assessment of the AWiFS (Advanced Wide Field Sensor) on the Indian Remote Sensing Resourcesat-1 satellite was performed by the NASA Applied Research & Technology Project Office (formerly the Applied Sciences Directorate) at the John C. Stennis Space Center. A reflectance-based vicarious calibration approach, requiring ground-based measurements coincident with satellite acquisitions and radiative transfer calculations, was used to estimate at-sensor radiance. The AWiFS is a 4-band, multispectral, moderate-resolution (60 m) imaging sensor that operates in the visible through short-wave infrared spectrum and is currently being considered as a Landsat-like alternative. Several study sites near the Stennis Space Center that attempted to span the dynamic range of the sensor were employed. Satellite at-sensor radiance values were compared to those estimated to determine the sensor's radiometric accuracy. The results of this evaluation provide the user community with an independent assessment of the radiometric accuracy of AWiFS image products, which are commercially available through GeoEye. These results are an extension of an independent assessment made by the University of Arizona Remote Sensing Group, the South Dakota State University Satellite Calibration Group & Image Processing Lab, and the NASA Applied Sciences Directorate at the John C. Stennis Space Center the previous year.

Pagnutti, Mary↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Tropopause-Overshooting Volume from Satellite and Radar Observations During the DCOTSS 2021 and 2022 Campaigns

Tropopause-overshooting cloud locations, their volume, and the percentage of anvil cloud occupied by overshooting were quantified from state-of-the-art merged NEXRAD radar and GOES-16/17 satellite products during the 2021 and 2022 Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) study periods. A novel method for defining and tracking large individual storms or storm outbreak objects in space and time was presented, which enabled improved understanding of the complex feature-specific biases among GOES- and GridRad-derived overshooting metrics. GOES overshooting cloud top height was estimated using a stratospheric lapse rate approach informed by GOES visible and IR measurements of shadows from OTs and calibrated based on previously observed maximum GridRad overshooting distribution. Total overshooting volumes derived over CONUS are higher for GOES than GridRad for both years, especially during 2021. Over all storm outbreak objects with observed overshooting, GOES observed higher overshooting percentages while GridRad observed relatively higher overshooting magnitudes. The greater spatial coverage of GOES overshooting, especially noticeable during the mature and dissipation stages of outbreaks due to inherent limitations of infrared satellite data which make it difficult to differentiate cold, high-altitude outflow from true updraft cores, outweighed differences in magnitude to yield higher GOES volume. Individual events, however, revealed that the higher overshooting magnitudes observed by GridRad produce higher overshooting volumes at times. Four-dimensional trajectories of tropopause-overshooting air parcels were compared 5 days after overshooting occurred to depict the envelope of convectively impacted air in the stratosphere. The generally good agreement in parcel plume area initiated from GOES and GridRad overshooting detections suggests that geostationary satellite data can be used to estimate where and how often overshooting impacts stratospheric composition in regions without a ground-based weather radar network to estimate climate impacts of overshooting convection.

Kristopher Bedka↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Importance of Semi-Major Axis Knowledge in the Determination of Near-Circular Orbits

Modem orbit determination has mostly been accomplished using Cartesian coordinates. This usage has carried over in recent years to the use of GPS for satellite orbit determination. The unprecedented positioning accuracy of GPS has tended to focus attention more on the system's capability to locate the spacecraft's location at a particular epoch than on its accuracy in determination of the orbit, per se. As is well-known, the latter depends on a coordinated knowledge of position, velocity, and the correlation between their errors. Failure to determine a properly coordinated position/velocity state vector at a given epoch can lead to an epoch state that does not propagate well, and/or may not be usable for the execution of orbit adjustment maneuvers. For the quite common case of near-circular orbits, the degree to which position and velocity estimates are properly coordinated is largely captured by the error in semi-major axis (SMA) they jointly produce. Figure 1 depicts the relationships among radius error, speed error, and their correlation which exist for a typical low altitude Earth orbit. Two familiar consequences are the relationship Figure 1 shows are the following: (1) downrange position error grows at the per orbit rate of 3(pi) times the SMA error; (2) a velocity change imparted to the orbit will have an error of (pi) divided by the orbit period times the SMA error. A less familiar consequence occurs in the problem of initializing the covariance matrix for a sequential orbit determination filter. An initial covariance consistent with orbital dynamics should be used if the covariance is to propagate well. Properly accounting for the SMA error of the initial state in the construction of the initial covariance accomplishes half of this objective, by specifying the partition of the covariance corresponding to down-track position and radial velocity errors. The remainder of the in-plane covariance partition may be specified in terms of the flight path angle error of the initial state. Figure 2 illustrates the effect of properly and not properly initializing a covariance. This figure was produced by propagating the covariance shown on the plot, without process noise, in a circular low Earth orbit whose period is 5828.5 seconds. The upper subplot, in which the proper relationships among position, velocity, and their correlation has been used, shows overall error growth, in terms of the standard deviations of the inertial position coordinates, of about half of the lower subplot, whose initial covariance was based on other considerations.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes

As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before returning to background levels more akin to tectonic events (Stein and Liu, 2009). Appropriate estimates of the aftershock duration impact several operational management decisions including mitigation strategies and post-injection monitoring for seismic activity. It is hypothesized that induced earthquake rates may diminish more quickly after injection is stopped, owing to higher stressing rates from injected fluids. Alternatively, it is plausible that only the first event in the sequence is induced by increased fluid overpressures, whereas subsequent events (e.g., aftershocks) respond to the stored tectonic stresses and static and dynamic stress changes due to the mainshock (Keranen et al., 2013). Further, if the aftershock duration can be linked to stressing rates due to injection, then it follows that operational strategies to reduce seismic hazard by reducing injection rates or volumes may be successful. However, if aftershocks of induced events are relieving stored tectonic stresses, then altering injection volumes may not alleviate ongoing seismic activity. Furthermore, knowledge of an aftershock duration could aid in the determination of an appropriate post-injection monitoring period for ongoing seismicity, which is a factor in overall operational costs. In this study, we model induced seismicity sequences in Oklahoma with a coupled Coulomb rate–state earthquake rate model (Dieterich, 1994; Kroll et al., 2017) to estimate aftershocks durations. Results for the current study indicate that elevated rates of aftershock activity following induced mainshocks return to background seismicity rates in less than five years, contrary to the tens to hundreds of years observed for tectonic aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

The dynamics of global positioning system orbits and the determination of precise ephemerides

The suggestion made on the basis of the analytical orbit perturbation theory that the errors in the ephemerides of the GPS satellites are due mostly to resonant effects that can be corrected by adjusting a few parameters in a empirical acceleration formula is tested using simulations and actual data analysis. Data from the Spring 1985 Experiment were used to calculate improved ephemerides, and these ephemerides were used in the estimation of the coordinates of GPS stations within the continental United States, previously positioned with VLBI. The results of this test support the idea that the errors are mostly of a resonant nature and can be corrected.

Colombo, Oscar L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptation of virtual synchronous generators to dynamic conditions in power grids

Virtual synchronous generators (VSGs) are widely adopted as grid-forming controls for inverter-based resources. However, when grid conditions vary significantly as characterized by changes in short-circuit ratio (SCR) and the reactance-to-resistance (X/R) ratio, fixed-gain designs and the commonly used P–Q decoupling assumption can become inaccurate. Such conditions can degrade transient power performance, leading to oscillations, prolonged settling, and overshoot, particularly in stiff-grid operating points. This paper quantifies how grid strength and impedance-dependent coupling affect the active–reactive power dynamics of a conventional VSG over a broad range of SCR and X/R values. An adaptive VSG tuning framework is then developed by combining (i) a coupling-explicit, impedance-parameterized state-space model to enable systematic controller synthesis, (ii) a full-state-feedback law designed via pole placement to meet prescribed damping and settling-time specifications, and (iii) a physics-informed neural network (PINN)–based online grid-impedance estimator that updates controller gains in real time as grid conditions vary. Offline simulations in MATLAB/Simulink and real-time validation on an OPAL-RT platform show that the proposed method preserves consistent damping and settling behavior with reduced overshoot across wide SCR and X/R ranges, compared with fixed-gain VSG baselines.

Adaptive control↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving Estimation of the Koopman Operator with Kolmogorov–Smirnov Indicator Functions

It has become common to perform kinetic analysis using approximate Koopman operators that transform high-dimensional timeseries of observables into ranked dynamical modes. The key to the practical success of the approach is the identification of a set of observables that form a good basis on which to expand the slow relaxation modes. Good observables are, however, difficult to identify a priori and suboptimal choices can lead to significant underestimations of characteristic time scales. Leveraging the representation of slow dynamics in terms of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), we propose a simple and computationally efficient clustering procedure to infer surrogate observables that form a good basis for slow modes. Here, we apply the approach to an analytically solvable model system as well as on three protein systems of different complexities. We consistently demonstrate that the inferred indicator functions can significantly improve the estimation of the leading eigenvalues of Koopman operators and correctly identify key states and transition time scales of stochastic systems, even when good observables are not known a priori.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CFD-Based Frequency Domain Method for Dynamic Stability Derivative Estimation with Application to Transonic Truss-Braced Wing

This paper presents a dynamic stability estimation technique obtained from high-fidelity CFD simulations of the Mach 0.8 Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW). A series of unsteady RANS CFD simulations in FUN3D is performed on the TTBW in pitch and plunge oscillations at various reduced frequencies. The time-domain data are transformed into the frequency-domain data by Fourier series. Transfer functions of the dynamic stability derivatives are then estimated by a frequency-domain regression. The dynamic stability derivatives with respect to the angle of attack are determined by the regression of the unsteady aerodynamic coefficients for the plunge motion. The dynamic stability derivatives with respect to the pitch rate are deter-mined by the regression of the differential unsteady aerodynamic coefficients for the pitch motion upon the removal of the angle of attack contribution by the plunge motion. The steady-state stability derivatives are then compared to the results obtained from a stability analysis code VSPAERO as well as steady-state FUN3D simulations. The comparison of the steady-state stability derivatives shows excellent agreement.

Dynamic Stability Derivatives↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Ocean Reanalyses and ENSO Forecasts By Assimilation of Rain-Corrected Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Using the GMOA S2s Forecast System

The ENSO phenomenon has a significant global socio-economic impact and has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of satellite altimetry and subsurface temperature and salinity from (mostly) Argo help improve the initialization of the thermocline, while satellite SST aids in constraining surface heat-fluxes, leading to improved coupled system sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts. However, few studies have focused on improving the near-surface density and mixing through satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) assimilation. The few ocean models that assimilate satellite SSS, bias correct to normalize towards the near-surface Argo data for expediency. This assumption is likely inadequate in rainy regions, where buoyant water forms a fresh surface lens. In previous work, we showed that adjusting SSS to bulk salinity (Sb) using the Rain Impact Model (RIM) of Santos-Garcia et al., 2014 improves the near-surface density and mixed layer depth, leading to deeper thermocline and improved NINO3.4 SST forecasts. We now utilize the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity rain-corrected (SMOS_RC) SSS, available in SMOS-CATDS products, to represent Sb more accurately at the first model layer (e.g., 5 m). Rather than a diffusivity model as RIM, SMOS_RC uses a statistical correction dependent on Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) rain rates, established on observed SMOS SSS decreases related to Sb in the presence of rain (Supply et al., 2020). For all experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis additionally assimilates SMOS SSS data as is, and a separate reanalysis assimilates SMOS_RC. We assess the impact on near-surface and subsurface dynamics by validating against observations and explore how SSS assimilation (SMOS vs SMOS_RC) impacts ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to Seasonal coupled forecast system (S2S-v3, Molod et al. 2020). We show that improved estimates of density and near-surface mixing led to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better ENSO forecasts. The increased SSS, resulting from the removal of the instantaneous rain effect, modifies the ocean state by enhancing mixing and deepening the thermocline.

Veronica Ruiz Xomchuk↗

DOE OSTI2025

How Flood Hazards in a Warming Climate Could Be Amplified by Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns and Mechanisms of Water Available for Runoff

Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm patterns, such as hyetograph shapes and areal reduction factors (ARFs). This study examines projected changes in extreme water available for runoff (W) events in two snow-dominated basins in the western United States: the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State and the Walker River Basin (WRB) spanning the California-Nevada border. We analyze changes in W magnitudes, mechanisms, hyetograph shapes, and ARFs, and study their compounded impacts on flood hazard. Our findings suggest increased extreme W magnitudes across a large portion of the basins, with steeper or flatter hyetographs, and higher ARF values under the future climate. These changes are driven by a shift from seasonal snowmelt to more rain-on-snow events at higher elevations and by increased rainfall at lower elevations. We then use a single event-based rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood hazard changes based on extreme W magnitudes, hyetograph shapes, ARFs, and their compounded impacts. Our analysis reveals that focusing solely on the magnitude of changes in extreme W can significantly underestimate future flood hazards and uncertainties. Ignoring future changes in spatiotemporal patterns can underestimate future flood hazards by 63% and underestimate the uncertainty in future flood events by 18% in the WRB. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics into future flood hazard assessments to provide a more accurate evaluation of potential impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of a temporal multiscale method for efficient simulation of degradation in PEM Water Electrolysis under dynamic operating conditions

Hydrogen is emerging as a vital energy carrier, driven by the need to reduce carbon emissions. Proton Electrolyte Membrane Water Electrolysis (PEMWE) enables hydrogen production under fluctuating renewable power conditions but requires improved understanding and stability of the anode catalyst layer under dynamic operating conditions, especially with low noble metal loadings. Long-term degradation experiments are both time-consuming and costly; therefore, a systematic, model-aided approach is essential. In the present work, a temporal multiscale method is applied to reduce the computational effort of simulating long-term degradation processes in PEMWE, with an exemplary focus on catalyst dissolution. A mechanistic model incorporating the oxygen evolution reaction, catalyst dissolution, and hydrogen permeation from the cathode to the anode was hypothesized and implemented. In this way, the local periodicity of transport and reaction processes in dynamic PEMWE operation, which influence the gradual degradation of the catalyst layer, is captured. The temporal multiscale method significantly reduces the computational effort of simulation, decreasing processing time from hours to mere minutes. This efficiency gain is attributed to the limited evolution of Slow-Scale variables during each period of time P of the Fast-Scale variables. Consequently, simulation is required only until local periodicity is achieved within each Slow-Scale time step. Hence, the fully resolved dynamic problem is decoupled into these two scales, employing a heterogeneous multiscale technique. The developed approach effectively accelerates parameter estimation and predictive simulations, supporting systematic modeling of PEMWE degradation under dynamic conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗