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Regulatory Mechanisms to Enable Investments in Electric Utility Resilience

In 2019, Sandia National Laboratories contracted Synapse Energy Economics (Synapse) to research the integration of community and electric utility resilience investment planning as part of the Designing Resilient Communities: A Consequence-Based Approach for Grid Investment (DRC) project. Synapse produced a series of reports to explore the challenges and opportunities in several key areas, including benefit-cost analysis, performance metrics, microgrids, and regulatory mechanisms to promote investments in electric system resilience. This report focuses on regulatory mechanisms to improve resilience. Regulatory mechanisms that improve resilience are approaches that electric utility regulators can use to align utility, customer, and third-party investments with regulatory, ratepayer, community, and other important stakeholder interests and priorities for resilience. Cost-of-service regulation may fail to provide utilities with adequate guidance or incentives regarding community priorities for infrastructure hardening and disaster recovery. The application of other types of regulatory mechanisms to resilience investments can help. This report: characterizes regulatory objective as they apply to resilience; identifies several regulatory mechanisms that are used or can be adapted to improve the resilience of the electric system--including performance-based regulation, integrated planning, tariffs and programs to leverage private investment, alternative lines of business for utilities, enhanced cost recovery, and securitization; provides a case study of each regulatory mechanism; summarizes findings across the case studies; and suggests how these regulatory mechanisms might be improved and applied to resilience moving forward. In this report, we assess the effectiveness of a range of utility regulatory mechanisms at evaluating and prioritizing utility investments in grid resilience. First, we characterize regulatory objectives which underly all regulatory mechanisms. We then describe seven types of regulatory mechanisms that can be used to improve resilience--including performance-based regulation, integrated planning, tariffs and programs to leverage private investment, alternative lines of business for utilities, enhanced cost recovery, and securitization--and provide a case study for each one. We summarize our findings on the extent to which these regulatory mechanisms have supported resilience to date. We conclude with suggestions on how these regulatory mechanisms might be improved and applied to resilience moving forward.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Community engagement in the development of bioenergy projects from cellulosic urban waste feedstock in Hawaii for sustainable aviation fuel

The purpose of the research project was to reveal the perceptions of residents and communities of the City and County of Honolulu concerning bioenergy projects, feedstock, and sustainable aviation fuel. The perception study was conducted via community-scale surveys, interviews, and town meetings to gather feedback on the preliminary design of a proposed bioenergy project, including feedstock choice and the need for sustainable aviation fuel in Hawaii. Residents on the west side of Oahu were targeted due to their proximity to the proposed plant site location. Findings from this study aim to identify resident perceptions, understanding, and desire for bioenergy projects and new infrastructure to, improve the energy efficiency and sustainability of Hawaiian islands. While Hawaii has created policies and mandates to move toward 100% renewable energy sources by 2045, the focus has been predominately on renewable electricity, largely overlooking other sustainable energy options such as sustainable aviation fuel. There is a lack of research on the community engagement and perceptions of Hawaiian residents on bioenergy projects and sustainable aviation fuel, contributing to the low adoption of bioenergy projects on the islands. Insights from this study aim to add literature on the need for community engagement in the design process, the importance of accepting new sustainable infrastructure, and the production and use of sustainable aviation fuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

District-Scale Analysis of Electricity Load and Strategies to Improve Energy Reliability Using Prototype District Models

Projected increases in electricity demand in the U.S. highlight the urgent need for effective load management to ensure grid reliability. As the building sector accounts for approximately 75% of electricity usage, enhancing energy efficiency and flexibility in this sector is crucial. Adopting district-level approaches offers significant advantages over traditional individual building analyses by enabling shared infrastructure and economies of scale. To navigate the data and computational challenges associated with modeling energy at the district level, prototype district models have been proposed as holistic, system-level solutions that capture complex interactions within typical configurations. This study presents these models as a reference tool for analyzing district-scale energy systems across various climate zones in the U.S. Developed with input from stakeholders, these models integrate varied building characteristics, inter-building connections, and energy system interactions. A case study utilizing the Urban Edge prototype district model, implemented on the URBANopt™ platform, evaluates multiple demand scenarios and the impact of distributed energy resources such as fuel-fired backup generators, photovoltaic systems, and batteries. Findings suggest that while new electric systems can significantly reduce annual energy use, they may also elevate peak electricity loads, with a notable 43% increase in heating-dominant climate zone 5B. The optimal backup power solutions vary based on location, influenced by factors such as utility rates and incentives. For example, PV and batteries perform well in high-cost regions like New York City, while diesel backup generators are more suitable for backup needs in climate zone 3A, such as Atlanta. Thus, this research highlights the importance of prototype district models for future district-scale energy planning.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

EVs@Scale Deep Dive - SCM/VGI (Day 2: SCM/VGI Demonstration)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Electric Vehicles at Scale Laboratory Consortium (EVs@Scale Lab Consortium) is accelerating research to support the establishment of a secure and scalable national network of charging infrastructure. Critical to this effort is an understanding of the potential grid impacts of EV charging and possible smart charge management (SCM) or vehicle-grid integration (VGI) capabilities that could mitigate these impacts. The EVs@Scale SCM/VGI Pillar is analyzing the impacts of EV charging and developing and demonstrating the capabilities of both SCM and VGI with many different vehicle use cases and grid scenarios. This Deep Dive Discussion from year 1 of the project encompasses the progress and future plans for the demonstration components of the FUSE (Flexible charging to Unify the grid and transportation Sectors for Evs at scale) project.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗

Electric Vehicles at Scale (EVs@Scale) Laboratory Consortium Deep-Dive Technical Meeting: May 18, 2023

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Electric Vehicles at Scale Laboratory Consortium (EVs@Scale Lab Consortium) is accelerating research to support the establishment of a secure and scalable national network of charging infrastructure. Critical to this effort is an understanding of the potential grid impacts of EV charging and possible smart charge management (SCM) or vehicle-grid integration (VGI) capabilities that could mitigate these impacts. The EVs@Scale SCM/VGI Pillar is analyzing the impacts of EV charging and developing and demonstrating the capabilities of both SCM and VGI with many different vehicle use cases and grid scenarios. This Deep Dive Discussion from year 2 of the project encompasses the progress and future plans for the analysis components of the FUSE (Flexible charging to Unify the grid and transportation Sectors for Evs at scale) project.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Electrification of Aircraft: Challenges, Barriers, and Potential Impacts

Small-scale aircraft are being electrified with small e-aircraft already certified to fly and with test flights underway for retrofits of existing aircraft focused on near-term deployment. Internationally, from 2018 to 2020, the number of electric aircraft projects underway increased 50%. These technologies are projected to increase operational efficiency and reduce emissions and noise from a growing aviation sector. This emerging interest in aviation electrification includes aircraft, energy supply equipment, and battery storage manufacturers. Federal agencies are currently funding a variety of efforts including technology research as well as forecasting demand and environmental impacts and state governments have also begun pushing for further investigation in this area. This paper provides an overview of the current state and potential future development of aviation electrification. To understand the types of research questions around current and future challenges for this emerging sector, we consider a case study of the potential deployment of small commercial electric aircraft for existing, under-served markets and consider operational requirements and technical challenges as well as the range of questions that will need to be addressed around charging infrastructure, grid integration, policy and regulatory requirements, and emissions impacts. This case study also outlines potential nearer-term solutions and research areas of interest that will need to be addressed in the longer term at much larger scales and highlights NREL capabilities for addressing these challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Projecting Recent Advancements in Battery Technology to Next–Generation Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicles (EVs) have seen rapid growth in adoption over the last several years. Advancements to increase battery life and performance, policy shifts, and high charging rate are expected to further accelerate the development of next generation of EVs. Battery improvements continue to emerge, enabling increased driving range, total distance driven over the life of vehicles, and ability to charge at high rates. Herein, an analysis framework to provide insights into inclusive design metrics, such as specific energy of batteries, energy consumption of vehicles, and charging power infrastructure development, is developed. Various cell-level fast charge protocols to realistic battery designs to understand the infrastructure needs associated with achieving range replacement of 32.25 km min -1 (20 mi min -1 ) are also scaled. Additionally, by calculating scaled power and peak to average power ratio, it is found that there needs to be more distinct alignment between the research efforts focused at the cell level and what is being developed for EV charging infrastructure needs. Finally, impact of high direct current voltage architecture in next-generation EVs is discussed. The findings in this work provide an insight into recent advancements in battery technology to next-generation EVs.

20 mi/min↗

Sustainable hydrogen manufacturing via renewable-integrated intensified process for refueling stations

The widescale consumer adoption of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) is currently hindered by the high cost of small-scale hydrogen generation and the lack of extensive hydrogen refueling infrastructure. Natural gas-based hydrogen is cheaper when produced in large volumes but is also associated with high CO 2 emissions. To counter these challenges, we propose a hybrid approach where both natural gas and renewables are integrated in a synergistic manner using a dynamic process intensification technology that can be deployed on-site for meeting local demands of refueling stations. The technology is based on sorption enhanced steam methane reforming (SE-SMR) that utilizes a combination of reaction with in-situ CO 2 adsorption for enhancing process modularity, productivity and efficiency thereby outperforming conventional SMR at small scale. We develop a mixed integer linear programming (MILP)-based optimization framework for simultaneous design and scheduling of the SE-SMR process. The simultaneous optimization provides a synergistic combination whereby the renewables allow sustainable hydrogen manufacturing and the dynamic SE-SMR allows optimal use of the intermittency of the renewables. The U.S. nationwide analysis indicates that for futuristic renewable prices and a hydrogen production capacity of 2 ton/day, hydrogen can be produced at 50% less cost compared to the current cost of small-scale hydrogen generation. Finally, the city-wise analysis with varying hydrogen demand shows that even with just 5% HFCEV market penetration level, hydrogen production cost less than $3/kg can be obtained at small scales across the United States with even cheaper hydrogen for large cities.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Mapping Critical Vulnerabilities in Natural Gas Pipeline Systems through Network Centrality and GIS Analytics

Natural gas plays a central role in the US energy landscape, providing 43% of electricity generation in 2023. Its exclusive recovery ability on pipelines for transmission underscores the importance of understanding the disruption recovery ability of this infrastructure. This study employs a network-based analytical framework integrating geographic information systems (GIS) with multiple centrality measures—betweenness, closeness, degree, and eigenvector—to pinpoint key segments and evaluate the structural robustness of the national pipeline network. Pipelines are grouped by System ID and Operator ID to capture variations across organizational and physical structures. The analysis reveals uneven patterns of network influence, where certain pipelines function as critical connectors or dominant hubs. Spatial mapping highlights geographic dependencies and potential chokepoints, offering a clear view of where targeted risk prevention measures would be most effective. The findings provide practical guidance for prioritizing maintenance, enhancing system robustness, and mitigating risks to ensure a stable and secure energy supply. Future research will expand the framework to incorporate dynamic operational data and real-time network behavior.

Peterson, Steven [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000287672998)↗

Electrifying Airport GSE: Monte Carlo Grid Impacts

Airports globally are shifting from ICE-powered to electric Ground Support Equipment (eGSE) to enhance efficiency, reduce operational costs, and improve operator health. Leveraging predictable routes, flat terrain, and low operational speeds, airports provide ideal conditions for electrification. This study evaluates freight GSE electrification at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), USA, using the Agile@ platform, which integrates three analytical methods: Freight Facility Model (FFM), Activity-Structure-Intensity-Fuel (ASIF), and Monte Carlo simulations. Results from 10,000 simulations indicate modest but critical increases in electricity demand and significant variability in GSE energy consumption. These insights emphasize the importance of data-driven scheduling, targeted maintenance, and strategic infrastructure planning. For high-uncertainty scenarios, airports are advised to deploy buffer energy storage systems (battery banks), implement demand-response charging strategies, schedule flexible workforce shifts, and prioritize proactive maintenance-particularly for equipment with higher operational uncertainty, such as tug tractors with trailers. Agile@ thus offers a robust, scalable, and data-driven framework to optimize long-term GSE planning and enhance reliability across diverse airport environments.

Bose, Ranjan [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000791026327)↗

Port Electrification Handbook: A Reference to Aid U.S. Port Energy Transitions

Port electrification can take many forms, such as electrifying cargo handling equipment or deploying a microgrid to power critical port infrastructure. To help evaluate the growing challenge of increased electrification and its impacts on the system, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity’s Microgrids R&D [research and development] program created this Port Electrification Handbook through a project led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The goals of this handbook are the following: help port operators and planners evaluate different electrification technologies, explain how these technologies could aid and impact ports and surrounding communities, provide step-by-step considerations for port electrification.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling and Detection of Future Cyber-Enabled DSM Data Attacks

Demand-Side Management (DSM) is an essential tool to ensure power system reliability and stability. In future smart grids, certain portions of a customer’s load usage could be under the automatic control of a cyber-enabled DSM program, which selectively schedules loads as a function of electricity prices to improve power balance and grid stability. In this scenario, the security of DSM cyberinfrastructure will be critical as advanced metering infrastructure and communication systems are susceptible to cyber-attacks. Such attacks, in the form of false data injections, can manipulate customer load profiles and cause metering chaos and energy losses in the grid. The feedback mechanism between load management on the consumer side and dynamic price schemes employed by independent system operators can further exacerbate attacks. To study how this feedback mechanism may worsen attacks in future cyber-enabled DSM programs, we propose a novel mathematical framework for (i) modeling the nonlinear relationship between load management and real-time pricing, (ii) simulating residential load data and prices, (iii) creating cyber-attacks, and (iv) detecting said attacks. In this framework, we first develop time-series forecasts to model load demand and use them as inputs to an elasticity model for the price-demand relationship in the DSM loop. This work then investigates the behavior of such a feedback loop under intentional cyber-attacks. We simulate and examine load-price data under different DSM-participation levels with three types of random additive attacks: ramp, sudden, and point attacks. We conduct two investigations for the detection of DSM attacks. The first studies a supervised learning approach, with various classification models, and the second studies the performance of parametric and nonparametric change point detectors. Results conclude that higher amounts of DSM participation can exacerbate ramp and sudden attacks leading to better detection of such attacks, especially with supervised learning classifiers. We also find that nonparametric detection outperforms parametric for smaller user pools, and random point attacks are the hardest to detect with any method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗

Fusion energy for space missions in the 21st century: Executive summary

Future space missions were hypothesized and analyzed, and the energy source of their accomplishment investigated. The missions included manned Mars, scientific outposts to and robotic sample return missions from the outer planets and asteroids, as well as fly-by and rendezvous missions with the Oort Cloud and the nearest star, Alpha Centauri. Space system parametric requirements and operational features were established. The energy means for accomplishing missions where delta v requirements range from 90 km/sec to 30,000 km/sec (High Energy Space Mission) were investigated. The need to develop a power space of this magnitude is a key issue to address if the U.S. civil space program is to continue to advance as mandated by the National Space Policy. Potential energy options which could provide the propulsion and electrical power system and operational requirements were reviewed and evaluated. Fusion energy was considered to be the preferred option and was analyzed in depth. Candidate fusion fuels were evaluated based upon the energy output and neutron flux. Additionally, fusion energy can offer significant safety, environmental, economic, and operational advantages. Reactors exhibiting a highly efficient use of magnetic fields for space use while at the same time offering efficient coupling to an exhaust propellant or to a direct energy convertor for efficient electrical production were examined. Near term approaches were identified. A strategy that will produce fusion powered vehicles as part of the space transportation infrastructure was developed. Space program resources must be directed toward this issue as a matter of the top policy priority.

Schulze, Norman R.↗

Synchrophasors-based Master State Awareness Estimator for Cybersecurity in Power Grid: Testbed Implementation & Field Demonstration

The integration of distributed energy resources(DERs) and expansion of complex network in the distribution grid requires an advanced distributed state estimator to monitor the grid health at micro-level. The distribution state estimator will improve the situational awareness and resiliency of distributed power system. This paper proposes a synchrophasors-based master state awareness (MSA) estimator to enhance the cybersecurity in distribution grid by providing a real-time estimation of system operating states to control center operators. In this paper, the proposed MSA estimator utilizes only phasor measurements, bus magnitudes and angles, from phasor measurement units (PMUs),deployed in local substations, to estimate the system states and also detects data integrity attacks, such as load tripping attack that disconnects the load. To validate the proof of concept, we implement the proposed methodology in cyber-physical testbed environment at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Electric Grid Security Testbed. Further, to address the “valley of death” and support technology commercialization, field demonstration is also performed at the Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex(CITRC) at the INL. Our experimental results reveal a promising performance in detecting load tripping attack and providing an accurate situational awareness through an alert visualization dashboard in real-time

42 ENGINEERING↗

Case Study of Integrating High-Temperature Heat Pump with LiBr-H2O Absorption Chiller for Data Center Liquid Cooling

Data centers (DCs) are physical infrastructures that support artificial intelligence workloads. The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is putting substantial pressure on the US power grid. Most of electricity consumed by IT equipment, accounting for 50%-60% of total DC power, ultimately becomes waste heat. This heat is dissipated by DC’s cooling facilities, accounting for an additional 30%-40% of total DC power. Recovering and repurposing this waste heat offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency and reduce operating costs of DCs. One potential pathway is converting heat to cold using thermal-driven absorption chillers, therefore, reducing the power consumption in DC cooling facilities. Existing studies mainly demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing DC’s waste heat for cooling applications but provide limited technical details on how to integrate the thermal-driven absorption chillers with DC cooling systems. In addition, the low-grade waste heat available from DCs must be upgraded to higher temperatures suitable for absorption chillers. This paper presents a case study on integrating high-temperature heat pumps with a LiBr-H2O absorption chiller to use DC waste heat for cooling. A thermodynamic model of single-effect, LiBr-H2O absorption chiller and an empirical model of high-temperature heat pumps were built. The case study considers ASHRAE W17 liquid-cooled DC, with facility service water supplied at 17.0℃ and returned at 25.3℃. The thermal behaviors of absorption chiller components were predicted for the generation temperature ranging from 75.0℃ to 115.0℃. Based on the available waste heat in the integrated system, two waste heat recovery strategies were evaluated: a facility service water-based strategy and cooling water-based strategy. Results indicated that the cooling water-based strategy achieves higher Coefficient of Performance (COPs) than the facility service water-based strategy. The relatively low cooling COPs of single-effect LiBr-H2O absorption chillers could be offset by high heating COP of high temperature heat pumps. The maximum cooling COP of absorption chiller and the overall COP of integrated systems occur at lower generation temperatures, but these conditions also yield lower cooling capacities. In practice, system operation should balance the trade-off between the COP and cooling capacity

Wang, Pengtao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214713429)↗

Final Report for ARPA-E NODES "Real-Time Optimization and Control of Next-Generation Distribution Infrastructure" Project

The project examined next-generation power distribution systems with high levels of power- electronics-interfaced distributed energy resources (DERs) that include: renewable energy systems (RESs), energy-storage devices, electric vehicles, fuel cells, small-scale diesel generators, and controllable loads. The project developed a comprehensive distribution- network management framework that unifies real-time voltage and frequency control with network-wide energy management under an integrated framework. The aim of the project was to: i) systematically optimize network-wide operation and congruently regulate voltages and frequency in the face of high volatility induced by rapidly varying RES and uncontrolled loads; ii) facilitate high renewable integration beyond 50% on an energy basis; iii) meet power-quality requirements and operational constraints; and, iv) respect response, ramp- time, and hold-time requirements for synthetic frequency and regulating reserves via fast- and longer-term dynamic energy management.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

EVs@Scale Deep Dive - SCM/VGI (Day 1: SCM/VGI Analysis)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Electric Vehicles at Scale Laboratory Consortium (EVs@Scale Lab Consortium) is accelerating research to support the establishment of a secure and scalable national network of charging infrastructure. Critical to this effort is an understanding of the potential grid impacts of EV charging and possible smart charge management (SCM) or vehicle-grid integration (VGI) capabilities that could mitigate these impacts. The EVs@Scale SCM/VGI Pillar is analyzing the impacts of EV charging and developing and demonstrating the capabilities of both SCM and VGI with many different vehicle use cases and grid scenarios. This Deep Dive Discussion from year 1 of the project encompasses the progress and future plans for the analysis components of the FUSE (Flexible charging to Unify the grid and transportation Sectors for Evs at scale) project.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗