Estimation of signal parameters by the method of moments
Binary signal parameters estimation mixed with Gaussian noise, using method of moments
Shelton, R. D.↗
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Parametric study of modern airship productivity
A method for estimating the specific productivity of both hybrid and fully buoyant airships is developed. Various methods of estimating structural weight of deltoid hybrids are discussed and a derived weight estimating relationship is presented. Specific productivity is used as a figure of merit in a parametric study of fully buoyant ellipsoidal and deltoid hybrid semi-buoyant vehicles. The sensitivity of results as a function of assumptions is also determined. No airship configurations were found to have superior specific productivity to transport airplanes.
Ardema, M. D.↗
A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems: Preprint
An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different sets of preprocess data for the prediction of the frequency nadir in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. The training and testing data sets are collected by extensive generation scheduling simulations on the Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MIDAS) toolbox. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods can achieve high performance accuracy for power system nadir frequency estimation. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners by providing the best prediction accuracy.
data driven↗
A Novel Machine Learning Method for Surface PM2.5 Estimations from Geostationary Satellites
Particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less or equal to 2.5 μm, known as PM , affects human health as it penetrates the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures the atmospheric concentration of PM using air quality monitors stationed throughout the Continental United States (CONUS). Such measurements are points on a spatial domain and therefore, might not be representative of the air quality at nearby areas considering that the composition of the atmosphere is highly variable from place to place. Satellite based AOD permits a spatially uniform means of estimating PM and new geostationary satellites provide high temporal and spatial resolution estimation of AOD. However, the concentration of PM is non-linearly dependent on other atmospheric parameters that include relative humidity, temperature, and height of the planetary boundary layer. This information may be estimated at similar spatial and temporal resolutions as AOD from numerical modeling such as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model which resolves near real-time atmospheric conditions over the CONUS. The estimation of PM concentration is a multi-parametric problem that considers the effect of temporal dependencies among the different parameters. Deep learning approaches are appropriate for such complex estimation problems as they intrinsically capture relations among multiple non-linear parameters. This study compares deep-learning methods to traditional regression analysis to demonstrate the capabilities of these methods in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, a novel ensemble learning approach is employed to identify scientific processes that could further improve the estimation of PM concentration. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which are suitable for multivariate time series estimation problems as they are capable of learning long-term dependencies, individual models are created for each EPA station and trained on the aforementioned dataset collocated over each station. Individual station models are merged if the model's performance is improved by reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. This ensemble training method ultimately reduces the RMSE value. Evaluation of these results provide insights into physical processes and related observable parameters that may contribute to PM concentrations. Identified parameters evaluated to be statistically different between the merged and unmerged models are expected to improve overall performance. These new parameters are then utilized for reevaluation of the deep learning methods with an extreme gradient boosting model with an RMSE of 5.5 providing the best results.
George Priftis↗
A satellite infrared technique to estimate tropical convective and stratiform rainfall
A new method of estimating both convective and stratiform precipitation from satellite infrared data is described. This technique defines convective cores and assigns rain rate and rain area to these features based on the infrared brightness temperature and the cloud model approach of Adler and Mack (1984). The method was tested for four south Florida cases during the second Florida Area Cumulus Experiment, and the results are presented and compared with three other satellite rain estimation schemes.
Adler, Robert F.↗
Parameter estimation problems for distributed systems using a multigrid method
The problem of estimating spatially varying coefficients of partial differential equations is considered from observation of the solution and of the right hand side of the equation. It is assumed that the observations are distributed in the domain and that enough observations are given. A method of discretization and an efficient multigrid method for solving the resulting discrete systems are described. Numerical results are presented for estimation of coefficients in an elliptic and a parabolic partial differential equation.
Taasan, S.↗
Parameter estimation problems for distributed systems using a multigrid method
The problem of estimating spatially varying coefficients of partial differential equations is considered from observation of the solution and of the right hand side of the equation. It is assumed that the observations are distributed in the domain and that enough observations are given. A method of discretization and an efficient multigrid method for solving the resulting discrete systems are described. Numerical results are presented for estimation of coefficients in an elliptic and a parabolic partial differential equation.
Ta'asan, Shlomo↗
Theoretical and experimental supersonic lateral-directional stability characteristics
A program has been initiated at NASA Langley Research Center to assess several methods for estimation of lateral-directional stability. As a basis for comparison, experimental data are presented for a simple wing-body vertical tail configuration. The methods for estimating the characteristics include a second-order shock expansion and panel method (MISLIFT), a slender body and 'first-order' panel method (APAS), and a 'higher-order' panel method for linearized supersonic flow (PAN AIR). The results show that PAN AIR provides accurate estimates of these characteristics at moderate angles of attack for complete configurations with either single or twin vertical tails. APAS provides estimates for complete configurations at zero angle of attack. However, MISLIFT only provides estimates for the simplest body-vertical tail configurations at zero angle of attack.
Lamb, M.↗
A Method to Measure and Estimate Normalized Contrast in Infrared Flash Thermography
The paper presents further development in normalized contrast processing used in flash infrared thermography method. Method of computing normalized image or pixel intensity contrast, and normalized temperature contrast are provided. Methods of converting image contrast to temperature contrast and vice versa are provided. Normalized contrast processing in flash thermography is useful in quantitative analysis of flash thermography data including flaw characterization and comparison of experimental results with simulation. Computation of normalized temperature contrast involves use of flash thermography data acquisition set-up with high reflectivity foil and high emissivity tape such that the foil, tape and test object are imaged simultaneously. Methods of assessing other quantitative parameters such as emissivity of object, afterglow heat flux, reflection temperature change and surface temperature during flash thermography are also provided. Temperature imaging and normalized temperature contrast processing provide certain advantages over normalized image contrast processing by reducing effect of reflected energy in images and measurements, therefore providing better quantitative data. Examples of incorporating afterglow heat-flux and reflection temperature evolution in flash thermography simulation are also discussed.
Koshti, Ajay M.↗
Deep Learning for Full Waveform Inversion of Elastic Active-Source Seismic Data to Estimate P-Wave Velocity Models
Seismic imaging methods are critical for Global Security and Energy & Homeland Security missions and activities that rely on subsurface characterization, but traditional methods remain computationally expensive and require significant labor hours and expertise to execute. Within the past few years, machine learning (ML), namely deep learning (DL), has been used to develop data-driven end-to-end full waveform inversion (FWI) methods to estimate 2D P-wave velocity (Vp) models in a fraction of the time as conventional FWI. These methods, however, are trained on simplistic acoustic wave seismic data and Vp models that are not realistic nor representative of real-world observations, leaving a large gap between the state-of-the-art and deployable, feasible, and practical DL FWI methods. Here, we generate a synthetic active-source, 3D, elastic wave seismic data set and a variety of Vp models with realistic geologic structure for training DL FWI methods. We evaluate six different methods that have performed well for acoustic DL FWI or medical imaging tasks using our more realistic dataset. We find that these six trained models do not match the performance of published acoustic end-to-end DL FWI methods, indicating more training data may be needed, physics may need to be incorporated to achieve good accuracy at the sacrifice of the end-to-end advantage, and/or novel methods need to be developed to enable end-to-end DL FWI methods to perform well for real-world seismic data.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida
Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain
A method for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear dynamic state-space model was developed and studied. The application is aircraft dynamic model parameter estimation from measured data in flight. Equation error in the frequency domain was used with a recursive Fourier transform for the real-time data analysis. Linear and nonlinear simulation examples and flight test data from the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle were used to demonstrate that the technique produces accurate model parameter estimates with appropriate error bounds. Parameter estimates converged in less than one cycle of the dominant dynamic mode, using no a priori information, with control surface inputs measured in flight during ordinary piloted maneuvers. The real-time parameter estimation method has low computational requirements and could be implemented
Morelli, Eugene A.↗
Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain
A method for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear dynamic state space model was developed and studied. The application is aircraft dynamic model parameter estimation from measured data in flight for indirect adaptive or reconfigurable control. Equation error in the frequency domain was used with a recursive Fourier transform for the real-time data analysis. Linear and nonlinear simulation examples and flight test data from the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle HARV) were used to demonstrate that the technique produces accurate model parameter estimates with appropriate error bounds. Parameter estimates converged in less than 1 cycle of the dominant dynamic mode natural frequencies, using control surface inputs measured in flight during ordinary piloted maneuvers. The real-time parameter estimation method has low computational requirements, and could be implemented aboard an aircraft in real time.
Morelli, Eugene A.↗
Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model
Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1 pp of the nominal 90% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.
Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗
Survey of engineering computational methods and experimental programs for estimating supersonic missile aerodynamic characteristics
This paper presents a survey of engineering computational methods and experimental programs used for estimating the aerodynamic characteristics of missile configurations. Emphasis is placed on those methods which are suitable for preliminary design of conventional and advanced concepts. An analysis of the technical approaches of the various methods is made in order to assess their suitability to estimate longitudinal and/or lateral-directional characteristics for different classes of missile configurations. Some comparisons between the predicted characteristics and experimental data are presented. These comparisons are made for a large variation in flow conditions and model attitude parameters. The paper also presents known experimental research programs developed for the specific purpose of validating analytical methods and extending the capability of data-base programs.
Sawyer, W. C.↗
Classification and equivalence in estimation theory
A method is proposed for classifying estimation problems based on the Lie algebra generated by the operators which appear in the conditional density equation. A natural class of automorphisms of this algebra is examined and a systematic method of generating equivalent problems is developed. Finally, a new class of nonlinear filtering problems with essentially nonlinear filtering equations are presented.
Brockett, R. W.↗
Guidebook for Limited Sample Probability of Detection (LS-POD) Demonstration for Signal-Response Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Methods
This document provides guidance for performing limited sample probability of detection (LS-POD) demonstration testing with smaller numbers of flawed specimens than the 29 required for the Point Estimate POD method referenced in NASA Standard 5009B. This document is specifically applicable to NASA programs and projects where NASA Special NDE methods are used to inspect fracture critical human spaceflight metallic hardware when the minimum number of flawed specimens required for the Point Estimate POD method referenced in NASA Standard 5009B (2019) are not available.
Limited Sample Probability of Detection↗
Multi-fidelity thermal modeling of laser powder bed additive manufacturing
Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive manufacturing (AM) has attracted interest as an agile method of building production metal parts to reduce design-build-test cycle times for systems. However, predicting part performance is difficult due to inherent process variabilities. This makes qualification challenging. Computational process models have attempted to address some of these challenges, including mesoscale, full physics models and reduced fidelity conduction models. The goal of this work is credible multi-fidelity modeling of the LPBF process by investigating methods for estimating the error between models of two different fidelities. Two methods of error estimation are investigated, adjoint-based error estimation and Bayesian calibration. Adjoint-based error estimation is found to effectively bounding the error between the two models, but with very conservative bounds, making predictions highly uncertain. Bayesian parameter calibration applied to conduction model heat source parameters is found to effectively bound the observed error between the models for melt pool morphology quantities of interest. However, the calibrations do not effectively bound the error in heat distribution.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗