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DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

There is rising interest in probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risks from solar power uncertainty, but the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles readily available to system operators are often biased and underdispersed. We propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) post-processing method suitable for forecasting power from utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants at multiple time horizons up to at least the day-ahead timescale. BMA is a kernel dressing technique for NWP ensembles in which the forecast is a weighted sum of member-specific probability density functions. We tailor BMA for utility-scale PV forecasting by modeling power clipping at the AC inverter rating and advance the theory of BMA with a new beta kernel parameterization that accommodates theoretical constraints not previously addressed. BMA is demonstrated for a case study of 11 utility-scale PV plants in Texas, forecasting at hourly resolution for the complete year 2018. BMA's mixture-model approach mitigates underdispersion of the raw ensemble to significantly improve forecast calibration, while consistently outperforming an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) parametric approach from the literature. At 4-hour lead time, the BMA post-processing achieves continuous ranked probability skill scores of 2--36% over the raw ensemble, with consistent performance at multiple lead times suitable for power system operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Optimizing Irregular Applications for Energy and Performance on the Tilera Many-core Architecture

Optimizing applications simultaneously for energy and performance is a complex problem. High performance, parallel, irregular applications are notoriously hard to optimize due to their data-dependent memory accesses, lack of structured locality and complex data structures and code patterns. Irregular kernels are growing in importance in applications such as machine learning, graph analytics and combinatorial scientific computing. Performance- and energy-efficient implementation of these kernels on modern, energy efficient, multicore and many-core platforms is therefore an important and challenging problem. We present results from optimizing two irregular applications { the Louvain method for community detection (Grappolo), and high-performance conjugate gradient (HPCCG) { on the Tilera many-core system. We have significantly extended MIT's OpenTuner auto-tuning framework to conduct a detailed study of platform-independent and platform-specific optimizations to improve performance as well as reduce total energy consumption. We explore the optimization design space along three dimensions: memory layout schemes, compiler-based code transformations, and optimization of parallel loop schedules. Using auto-tuning, we demonstrate whole node energy savings of up to 41% relative to a baseline instantiation, and up to 31% relative to manually optimized variants.

irregular applications, energy opttimization, many↗

DOE OSTI2019

POEK

POEK (Python Optimization Expression Kernel) is a Python library that supports the expression and manipulation of algebraic expressions commonly used in optimization applications. POEK interfaces with the COEK library to support fast methods for defining and managing expressions and performing automatic differentiation. POEK also interfaces with COEK to directly interface with optimization solvers (i.e. without relying on file I/O). SAND2019-14492 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William↗

NASA NTRS1987

Some numerical calculations by using linear classical sonic theories approached from sub- or supersonic speeds

The unsteady aerodynamics of a two-dimensional wing at sonic speed are studied by using so-called classical sonic theories (linear), approached from supersonic flow (M=1+0) or subsonic flow (M=1-0). In the former approach, the exact expressions of lift and lift distribution are obtained in terms of Fresnel integrals, while in the latter approach an integral equation must be solved, the kernel function of which is obtained from the subsonic Possio's equation and has a root singularity. The discrete analysis is adopted on the basis of the semicircle method (SCM) and the weighting function for subsonic-flow-Gauss-quadrature, as well as modified characteristics obtained from both approaches agree quite well with each other. The results obtained by the present computations are compared with those of DLM-C (subsonic 2D code) developed by ANDO et al, and are found to give a reasonable outer boundary for subsonic unsteady aerodynamics.

Yamamoto, Y.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards Efficient Uncertainty estimation in deep learning for robust energy prediction in crystal materials

In material science, recent studies have started to explore the potential of using deep learning to improve property prediction from high-fidelity simulations, e.g, density functional theory (DFT). However, the design spaces are sometimes too large and intractable to sample completely. This results in a critical question that is how to evaluate the confidence and robustness of the prediction. In this paper, we propose an efficient approach to estimate uncertainty in deep learning using a single forward pass and then apply it for robust prediction of the total energy in crystal lattice structures. Our approach is built upon the deep kernel learning (DKL) that originally introduces to leverage the expressiveness of deep neural networks as input with a probabilistic prediction of Gaussian processes (GPs) as output. Existing DKL methods have difficulties in the accuracy of predictive uncertainty, training stability, and scaling to large datasets, which lead to significant barriers in real-world applications. We propose to address these challenges by using an inducing point approximate GP in feature space combined with spectral normalization as a regularization. We finally demonstrate our robust performance on an artificial example and a real-world application from materials chemistry.

Bi, Sirui↗

DOE OSTI2015

Multiresolution quantum chemistry in multiwavelet bases: excited states from time-dependent Hartree–Fock and density functional theory via linear response

Using the fully numerical method for time-dependent Hartree–Fock and density functional theory (TD-HF/DFT) with the Tamm–Dancoff (TD) approximation we use a multiresolution analysis (MRA) approach to present our findings. From a reformulation with effective use of the density matrix operator, we obtain a general form of the HF/DFT linear response equation in the first quantization formalism. It can be readily rewritten as an integral equation with the bound-state Helmholtz (BSH) kernel for the Green's function. The MRA implementation of the resultant equation permits excited state calculations without virtual orbitals. Moreover, the integral equation is efficiently and adaptively solved using a numerical multiresolution solver with multiwavelet bases. Our implementation of the TD-HF/DFT methods is applied for calculating the excitation energies of H 2 , Be, N 2 , H 2 O, and C 2 H 4 molecules. The numerical errors of the calculated excitation energies converge in proportion to the residuals of the equation in the molecular orbitals and response functions. The energies of the excited states at a variety of length scales ranging from short-range valence excitations to long-range Rydberg-type ones are consistently accurate. It is shown that the multiresolution calculations yield the correct exponential asymptotic tails for the response functions, whereas those computed with Gaussian basis functions are too diffuse or decay too rapidly. Finally, we introduce a simple asymptotic correction to the local spin-density approximation (LSDA) so that in the TDDFT calculations, the excited states are correctly bound.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

FSISPH: An SPH formulation for impacts between dissimilar materials

Here, we present an SPH formulation with several new features designed to better model the fully-compressible interaction of dissimilar materials. We developed the new method to simulate the atmospheric entry and break-up of small celestial bodies in planetary atmospheres. The formulation uses a unity-based, density-energy discretization of the hydrodynamic conservation laws with linear-corrected kernel gradients. To account for variations in compressibility, we use an HLLC approximate Riemann solver to adjust the velocity gradient at material interfaces. To handle large transverse velocity discontinuities, we introduce a simple slip interface model that limits the artificial viscosity at material interfaces. Diffusion is optionally applied through the velocity gradient and this allows the density and specific thermal energy to evolve in a manner more consistent with the first law of thermodynamics in comparison to other more direct diffusion schemes. We also introduce a material-local second-order artificial conduction scheme used to smooth the specific thermal energy field. Material damage fits neatly under this framework by treating the damage front as a material interface. The method has been implemented as a solver, FSISPH, within the code, Spheral++, and is publicly available on github. We test our new solver on a number of classic shock, mixing, and multi-material problem. The components we outline can significantly improve accuracy of SPH for problems with sharp contact discontinuities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-C-BRC-04: Efficient Dose Calculation Algorithm for FFF IMRT with a Simplified Bivariate Gaussian Source Model

Purpose: To develop an efficient and accurate independent dose calculation algorithm with a simplified analytical source model for the quality assurance and safe delivery of Flattening Filter Free (FFF)-IMRT on an Elekta Versa HD. Methods: The source model consisted of a point source and a 2D bivariate Gaussian source, respectively modeling the primary photons and the combined effect of head scatter, monitor chamber backscatter and collimator exchange effect. The in-air fluence was firstly calculated by back-projecting the edges of beam defining devices onto the source plane and integrating the visible source distribution. The effect of the rounded MLC leaf end, tongue-and-groove and interleaf transmission was taken into account in the back-projection. The in-air fluence was then modified with a fourth degree polynomial modeling the cone-shaped dose distribution of FFF beams. Planar dose distribution was obtained by convolving the in-air fluence with a dose deposition kernel (DDK) consisting of the sum of three 2D Gaussian functions. The parameters of the source model and the DDK were commissioned using measured in-air output factors (Sc) and cross beam profiles, respectively. A novel method was used to eliminate the volume averaging effect of ion chambers in determining the DDK. Planar dose distributions of five head-and-neck FFF-IMRT plans were calculated and compared against measurements performed with a 2D diode array (MapCHECK™) to validate the accuracy of the algorithm. Results: The proposed source model predicted Sc for both 6MV and 10MV with an accuracy better than 0.1%. With a stringent gamma criterion (2%/2mm/local difference), the passing rate of the FFF-IMRT dose calculation was 97.2±2.6%. Conclusion: The removal of the flattening filter represents a simplification of the head structure which allows the use of a simpler source model for very accurate dose calculation. The proposed algorithm offers an effective way to ensure the safe delivery of FFF-IMRT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Collaborating CPU and GPU for large-scale high-order CFD simulations with complex grids on the TianHe-1A supercomputer

Programming and optimizing complex, real-world CFD codes on current many-core accelerated HPC systems is very challenging, especially when collaborating CPUs and accelerators to fully tap the potential of heterogeneous systems. In this paper, with a tri-level hybrid and heterogeneous programming model using MPI + OpenMP + CUDA, we port and optimize our high-order multi-block structured CFD software HOSTA on the GPU-accelerated TianHe-1A supercomputer. HOSTA adopts two self-developed high-order compact definite difference schemes WCNS and HDCS that can simulate flows with complex geometries. We present a dual-level parallelization scheme for efficient multi-block computation on GPUs and perform particular kernel optimizations for high-order CFD schemes. The GPU-only approach achieves a speedup of about 1.3 when comparing one Tesla M2050 GPU with two Xeon X5670 CPUs. To achieve a greater speedup, we collaborate CPU and GPU for HOSTA instead of using a naive GPU-only approach. We present a novel scheme to balance the loads between the store-poor GPU and the store-rich CPU. Taking CPU and GPU load balance into account, we improve the maximum simulation problem size per TianHe-1A node for HOSTA by 2.3×, meanwhile the collaborative approach can improve the performance by around 45% compared to the GPU-only approach. Further, to scale HOSTA on TianHe-1A, we propose a gather/scatter optimization to minimize PCI-e data transfer times for ghost and singularity data of 3D grid blocks, and overlap the collaborative computation and communication as far as possible using some advanced CUDA and MPI features. Scalability tests show that HOSTA can achieve a parallel efficiency of above 60% on 1024 TianHe-1A nodes. With our method, we have successfully simulated an EET high-lift airfoil configuration containing 800M cells and China's large civil airplane configuration containing 150M cells. To our best knowledge, those are the largest-scale CPU–GPU collaborative simulations that solve realistic CFD problems with both complex configurations and high-order schemes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

NekRS, a GPU-accelerated spectral element Navier–Stokes solver

The development of NekRS, a GPU-oriented thermal-fluids simulation code based on the spectral element method (SEM) is described. For performance portability, the code is based on the open concurrent compute abstraction and leverages scalable developments in the SEM code Nek5000 and in libParanumal, which is a library of high-performance kernels for high-order discretizations and PDE-based miniapps. Critical performance sections of the Navier–Stokes time advancement are addressed. Performance results on several platforms are presented here, including scaling to 27,648 V100s on OLCF Summit, for calculations of up to 60B gridpoints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2013

Ab initio many-body calculations of nucleon- 4 He scattering with three-nucleon forces

We extend the ab initio no-core shell model/resonating-group method to include three-nucleon (3N) interactions for the description of nucleon-nucleus collisions. We outline the formalism, give algebraic expressions for the 3N-force integration kernels, and discuss computational aspects of two alternative implementations. The extended theoretical framework is then applied to nucleon- 4 He elastic scattering using similarity-renormalization-group (SRG)-evolved nucleon-nucleon plus 3N potentials derived from chiral effective field theory. We analyze the convergence properties of the calculated phase shifts and explore their dependence upon the SRG evolution parameter. We include up to six excited states of the 4 He target and find significant effects from the inclusion of the chiral 3N force, e.g., it enhances the spin-orbit splitting between the 3/2 – and 1/2 – resonances and leads to an improved agreement with the phase shifts obtained from an accurate R-matrix analysis of the five-nucleon experimental data. As a result, we find remarkably good agreement with measured differential cross sections at various energies below the d+ 3 H threshold, while analyzing powers manifest larger deviations from experiment for certain energies and angles.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2011

Nonlinear perturbation theory integrated with nonlocal bias, redshift-space distortions, and primordial non-Gaussianity

The standard nonlinear perturbation theory of the gravitational instability is extended to incorporate the nonlocal bias, redshift-space distortions, and primordial non-Gaussianity. We show that local Eulerian bias is not generally compatible with local Lagrangian bias in the nonlinear regime. The Eulerian and Lagrangian biases are nonlocally related order by order in the general perturbation theory. The relation between Eulerian and Lagrangian kernels of density perturbations with biasing is derived. The effects of primordial non-Gaussianity and redshift-space distortions are also incorporated in our general formalism, and diagrammatic methods are introduced. Vertex resummations of higher-order perturbations in the presence of bias are considered. Resummations of Lagrangian bias are shown to be essential to handle biasing schemes in a general framework.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2013

First-Principles Method of Propagation of Tightly Bound Excitons: Verifying the Exciton Band Structure of LiF with Inelastic x-Ray Scattering

In this work, we propose a simple first-principles method to describe the propagation of tightly bound excitons. By viewing the exciton as a composite object (an effective Frenkel exciton in Wannier orbitals), we define an exciton kinetic kernel to encapsulate the exciton propagation and decay for all binding energies. Applied to prototypical LiF, our approach produces three exciton bands, which we verified quantitatively via inelastic x-ray scattering. The proposed real-space picture is computationally inexpensive and thus enables study of the full exciton dynamics, even in the presence of surfaces and impurity scattering. It also provides an intuitive understanding to facilitate practical exciton engineering in semiconductors, strongly correlated oxides, and their nanostructures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-214: Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy (IMPT) Based On Passively Scattered Protons and Multi-Leaf Collimation: Prototype TPS and Dosimetry Study

Purpose. Intensity-modulated proton therapy is usually implemented with multi-field optimization of pencil-beam scanning (PBS) proton fields. However, at the view of the experience with photon-IMRT, proton facilities equipped with double-scattering (DS) delivery and multi-leaf collimation (MLC) could produce highly conformal dose distributions (and possibly eliminate the need for patient-specific compensators) with a clever use of their MLC field shaping, provided that an optimal inverse TPS is developed. Methods. A prototype TPS was developed in MATLAB. The dose calculation process was based on a fluence-dose algorithm on an adaptive divergent grid. A database of dose kernels was precalculated in order to allow for fast variations of the field range and modulation during optimization. The inverse planning process was based on the adaptive simulated annealing approach, with direct aperture optimization of the MLC leaves. A dosimetry study was performed on a phantom formed by three concentrical semicylinders separated by 5 mm, of which the inner-most and outer-most were regarded as organs at risk (OARs), and the middle one as the PTV. We chose a concave target (which is not treatable with conventional DS fields) to show the potential of our technique. The optimizer was configured to minimize the mean dose to the OARs while keeping a good coverage of the target. Results. The plan produced by the prototype TPS achieved a conformity index of 1.34, with the mean doses to the OARs below 78% of the prescribed dose. This Result is hardly achievable with traditional conformal DS technique with compensators, and it compares to what can be obtained with PBS. Conclusion. It is certainly feasible to produce IMPT fields with MLC passive scattering fields. With a fully developed treatment planning system, the produced plans can be superior to traditional DS plans in terms of plan conformity and dose to organs at risk.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-135: Feasibility of Using Quantitative Cone Beam CT for Proton Adaptive Planning

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of using scatter corrected cone beam CT (CBCT) for proton adaptive planning. Methods: Phantom study was used to evaluate the CT number difference between the planning CT (pCT), quantitative CBCT (qCBCT) with scatter correction and calibrated Hounsfield units using adaptive scatter kernel superposition (ASKS) technique, and raw CBCT (rCBCT). After confirming the CT number accuracy, prostate patients, each with a pCT and several sets of weekly CBCT, were investigated for this study. Spot scanning proton treatment plans were independently generated on pCT, qCBCT and rCBCT. The treatment plans were then recalculated on all images. Dose-volume-histogram (DVH) parameters and gamma analysis were used to compare between dose distributions. Results: Phantom study suggested that Hounsfield unit accuracy for different materials are within 20 HU for qCBCT and over 250 HU for rCBCT. For prostate patients, proton dose could be calculated accurately on qCBCT but not on rCBCT. When the original plan was recalculated on qCBCT, tumor coverage was maintained when anatomy was consistent with pCT. However, large dose variance was observed when patient anatomy change. Adaptive plan using qCBCT was able to recover tumor coverage and reduce dose to normal tissue. Conclusion: It is feasible to use qu antitative CBCT (qCBCT) with scatter correction and calibrated Hounsfield units for proton dose calculation and adaptive planning in proton therapy. Partly supported by Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Simulation of Properties of Images with Atomic Resolution in a Scanning Probe Microscope

A method for simulation of images in a scanning probe microscope (SPM) using simultaneous wavelet transform and median filtering is proposed. The wavelet transform with the fourth-order Daubechies kernel is used. Such a transform makes it possible to select details of different scales in the SPM image and, hence, study fractal properties of surfaces. Simulation is used to show that ultrahigh (atomic) resolution is possible in SPM provided that the size of the contact region in the probe–sample system is significantly greater than atomic size and the lattice atoms are randomly distributed. Contrast inversion in the SPM images in the multiscan mode is interpreted.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2018

Development of a Library for Conducting Monte Carlo Tallies on Heterogeneous Systems

A library is introduced that enables users to conduct Monte Carlo tallies on heterogeneous computing systems. The library can be built with or linked to a Monte Carlo transport code to provide tally capabilities for the project. The library provides a set of tools and an interface for constructing tallies that can be computed on CPUs or GPUs regardless of where the sample data was generated. The library can be incorporated into existing Monte Carlo transport codes at both the research and production level with minimal intrusion into the transport code. The tally library is capable of computing a variety of tallies including track-length histogram (mesh) tallies, collisionbased kernel density estimators, functional expansion tallies, eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients via iterated fission probability, and sensitivities of reaction rates or adjoint-weighted quantities via differential operator sampling. The parallelization methods are discussed and speedups are shown for 2-D and 3-D problems with comparisons to both the tally library CPU implementations as well as the tally capabilities in the host transport code. Performance results and examples are shown for MCNP, MCATK, and OpenMC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1999

Improving the Accuracy of Quadrature Method Solutions of Fredholm Integral Equations That Arise from Nonlinear Two-Point Boundary Value Problems

In this paper we are concerned with high-accuracy quadrature method solutions of nonlinear Fredholm integral equations of the form y(x) = r(x) + definite integral of g(x, t)F(t,y(t))dt with limits between 0 and 1,0 less than or equal to x les than or equal to 1, where the kernel function g(x,t) is continuous, but its partial derivatives have finite jump discontinuities across x = t. Such integral equations arise, e.g., when one applied Green's function techniques to nonlinear two-point boundary value problems of the form y "(x) =f(x,y(x)), 0 less than or equal to x less than or equal to 1, with y(0) = y(sub 0) and y(l) = y(sub l), or other linear boundary conditions. A quadrature method that is especially suitable and that has been employed for such equations is one based on the trepezoidal rule that has a low accuracy. By analyzing the corresponding Euler-Maclaurin expansion, we derive suitable correction terms that we add to the trapezoidal rule, thus obtaining new numerical quadrature formulas of arbitrarily high accuracy that we also use in defining quadrature methods for the integral equations above. We prove an existence and uniqueness theorem for the quadrature method solutions, and show that their accuracy is the same as that of the underlying quadrature formula. The solution of the nonlinear systems resulting from the quadrature methods is achieved through successive approximations whose convergence is also proved. The results are demonstrated with numerical examples.

Sidi, Avram↗