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DOE-NE LWRS Integrated Program Plan - Physical Security Pathway

Domestic nuclear power is facing increased financial pressures from a variety of areas and there is pressure on these utilities to reduce their cost of operation. Currently, about 20%-30% of all on-site personnel are related to physical security. The LWRS Program recognized that R&D related to physical security could play a role in providing nuclear utilities technical and staffing efficiency options to meet their physical security commitments, but utilities often lack the technical basis or the ability to create the technical basis to realize or implement these efficiencies; towards this end, the LWRS Program created the Physical Security Pathway in September 2019. The pathway performs R&D to develop methods, tools, and technologies to optimize and modernize a nuclear power facility’s security posture. The pathway will: (1) conduct research on risk-informed techniques for physical security that account for a dynamic adversary; (2) apply advanced modeling and simulation tools to better inform physical-security scenarios and reduce uncertainties in force-on-force modeling; (3) assess benefits from proposed enhancements and novel mitigation strategies and explore changes to best practices, guides, or regulation to enable modernization; and (4) enhance and provide the technical basis for stakeholders to employ new security methods, tools, and technologies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Review of Literature Related to Nuclear Data Mini-Apps

his document reviews nuclear data mini-apps prevalent in the published scientific literature. It is intended to identify algorithmic and computer architecture considerations of relevance to optimizing GIDI/MCGIDI for GPU-based architectures. While some of the works considered here focus on CPU-based architectures, the performance-limiting factors and mitigating strategies identified often extend to GPU-based architectures, particularly in the context of latency-bound performance. A brief overview of the cross section (XS) lookup process is given in Section 1 and a detailed analysis of nuclear data mini-apps follows in Section 2. Concluding remarks are offered in Section 3.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Corrosion Protection and Dissimilar Material Joining for Next Generation Lightweight Vehicles

The Arconic Technology Center working with Honda R&D Americas, LLC and the Ohio State University evaluated the corrosion performance of several multi-material conditions and demonstrated the production worthiness of the Resistance Spot Riveting (RSR™) process. RSR is a new technology being developed by Howmet Fastening Systems (formerly Arconic, Inc.) that employs a fastener that is installed using conventional resistance spot welding equipment to produce multi-material joints. The goal of the 3-year project was to demonstrate the use of RSR to join aluminum to steel and aluminum to carbon fiber composites on a prototype scale. Deployment of this technology would help the automotive industry achieve an additional 10 to 20% weight reduction over high strength steels. These weight-savings to the body in white generally translates to 2.5-5.0% of overall vehicle curb weight. The resulting total weight-savings could provide a 1.5% to 3.0% total improvement in fuel efficiency for vehicles that incorporate RSR for multi-material joining. The RSR technology addresses several production barriers to achieving DOE’s fuel efficiency targets including eliminating the need of additional capital for new joining technologies and the flexibility to process conventional steel and multi-material structures with the same equipment. Additionally, the trend towards ultra-high strength steels limits the availability of conventional joining technologies that can effectively process these multi-material combinations. In order to accomplish these goals, the following program milestones were completed by the team: 1) Developed RSR process parameters, producing multi-material joints for mechanical testing and corrosion assessments. 2) Conducted corrosion evaluation of RSR and baseline joints assembled between automotive type aluminum alloys, steels, and carbon fiber using several corrosion mitigation strategies. 3) Developed a production ready feed system and integrate into a robotic resistance spot welding station to simulate automotive production conditions. 4) Produced demonstration assemblies for testing and evaluation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Land-Based Wind Energy Siting: A Foundational and Technical Resource

This land-based wind energy siting resource was created by the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Energy Technologies Office’s WINDExchange initiative and presents foundational information about land-based utility-scale wind energy that local decision makers can use when making community decisions about wind energy development. Consolidated, accessible, and easy to understand, this information resource focuses on land-based wind energy from the community perspective and examines siting-related impacts and mitigation strategies. Other impacts and strategies exist, such as those related to economics, climate, health, water, emissions, and waste; however, they are not covered in this resource. For more information on economic considerations, see the “Land-Based Wind: Economic Development Guide” and “Advancing the Growth of the U.S. Wind Industry: Federal Incentives, Funding, and Partnership Opportunities.” The intended audience for this guide is county-level decision officials, as they are often responsible for approving both wind energy ordinances and applicable permits needed for wind energy development. This guide may also provide relevant information to decision makers from other government jurisdictions and interested community members.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

BISON microstructure-based pulverization criterion in high burnup structure

To improve the economics of commercial nuclear power production, utilities are seeking to increase the allowable burnup limit of UO$_2$ fuel. One of the main factors that contributes to the current burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU in commercial light water reactors (LWRs) is the risk of fine fragmentation or pulverization during a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). Pulverization primarily occurs at high burnups, especially when the high burnup structure (HBS) has formed. To allow the industry to pursue increased burnup and develop mitigation strategies, it is essential to have improved capability to predict the onset of pulverization. However, the mechanism of pulverization is not well understood, and the existing predictive capabilities implemented in the BISON fuel performance code are empirical in nature. In this report, mesoscale simulations are used to improve understanding of the formation mechanism of the HBS and how it responds during a LOCA transient, and inform development of a BISON pulverization criterion. A phase-field model was used to simulate the evolution of bubble pressure as a result of HBS formation. The simulations showed that gas atoms diffuse from grain interiors to the new grain boundaries created during HBS formation, and diffuse rapidly along these grain boundaries to reach existing bubbles. This causes an increase in bubble pressure in existing bubbles, leading to bubble growth during steady-state operation. To simulate the response of HBS bubbles to a LOCA transient, a newly developed phase-field model was used; in agreement with preliminary results from FY20, bubble size did not change significantly during the duration of the transient. A phase-field fracture model was used to study fragmentation patterns in the HBS, including using input from the phase-field model as initial conditions. Phase-field fracture simulations were used to determine a pulverization criterion for BISON. A function for the critical pressure for pulverization to occur was fit to data from the phase-field fracture simulations, and this function was implemented as a material property in BISON. For comparison, an analytical criterion for pulverization was developed and implemented within the same material property.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Exploring Whether Subsurface Fluid Production Can Minimize Triggered Seismicity in Geothermal Fields

Fluid injection and production related to energy recovery and other industrial operations alter the pressure and stress state of subsurface reservoirs which can lead to induced seismicity. Here, the primary goal is to investigate the hypothesis that the modulation of stress state in subsurface reservoirs through fluid injection/production operations can reduce the likelihood of inducing seismicity. Validation of this mitigation strategy will provide an active operational method to control induced seismicity in subsurface reservoir exploitations such as geothermal energy recovery and carbon storage. In this project, we analyze the relationship between extensive fluid production and the paucity of aftershock activity at the Coso Geothermal plant (CGP) following the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence, where high rates of aftershock triggering were expected. We developed a high-fidelity multiphase coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) model to simulate fluid injection/production activities at the CGP between 1986 and 2020. THM results of surface subsidence due to high rates of fluid production agree well with field observations from global positioning system (GPS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Subsequently, the variations of pore pressure, temperature and stress state were used to drive numerical earthquake simulations of the aftershock response to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes. The earthquake simulations show that seismic quiescence may occur following the Ridgecrest event, depending on the initial stress state at the time of the mainshock and at the initiation of geothermal energy production. Seismic quiescence occurs in 20% of the cases we explored, where rates are decreased by 50% of the background rate in the two years following the mainshock. In circumstances where aftershock rates increase near the CGP following Ridgecrest, the average rate change is a factor of two larger than background rates from simulations with no operations. These findings indicate that unlike many other operations that bring faults closer to failure, operations at the CGP are acting to stabilize faults such that triggering in the current stress state is minimal.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

New Approaches to Low-Cost Scalable Doping of Interdigitated back Contact Silicon Solar Cells (Final Report)

The goal of this project was to develop novel approaches to patterning of dopants in the rear fingers of interdigitated back contact (IBC) Si solar cells to reduce the cost of manufacturing this high-efficiency-potential cell architecture. The work throughout this project can be divided into four categories: (a) development of dopant patterning technique using laser scribed Si contacts masks that are mechanically aligned with ~10 μm resolution to the underlying Si substrate; (b) measuring dopant spreading profiles in the isolation region between n- and p-type dopant fingers during plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) of doped hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) via shadow masks, and dopant desorption and re-adsorption during high-temperature annealing; (c) understanding the role of dopant compensation on the shunt resistance in contaminated isolation regions through analysis of defect-enhanced compensation; and (d) simulation and fabrication of passivated two-sided grid and back-contact solar cells to demonstrate the use of direct dopant patterning in cell fabrication. For the passivated two-sided grid solar cells, masked deposition was used to demonstrate an improvement in the blue response of the cell by creating a shallow front emitter. During development of the masked PECVD patterning process, we measured 3-D dopant profiles using secondary ion mass spectrometry. After deposition, in the masked region, the phosphorus dopant tail was >100 µm at concentrations >10 19 cm -3 while the boron dopant tail was shorter. During high-temperature crystallization of doped a-Si:H films to polycrystalline Si (poly-Si), phosphorus atoms spread by desorbing from the poly-Si surface and re-adsorbing onto intrinsic poly-Si on adjacent wafers that were separated by several millimeters. These contamination mechanisms resulted in a decrease in resistivity from ~10 5 Ω·cm for intrinsic poly-Si to ~10 -1 Ω·cm for contaminated poly-Si. Mitigation strategies for each contamination mechanism were developed to maintain a resistivity of ~10 5 Ω·cm between doped fingers. During fabrication of the 209 cells created during this project, it was found that despite contamination of the IBC gap through the abovementioned mechanisms, high shunt resistances and FF ~75% were still reached. Investigation into this led to the discovery of defect-enhanced compensation which exists within highly defective poly-Si when net doping concentrations reach the value of defect density (~10 18 cm -3 for many poly-Si films). Simulations guided us in the fabrication of IBCs and the cells fabricated were able to meet the year-end goals for BP 2 and 3 of 15% and 17% IBC cell efficiency, as well as the BP 4 goal of a 1% absolute increase in efficiency for PERC-like devices. However, the most efficient cell created during this project of 18.6% fell short of the 21% final project target. While the champion device fell short in V oc and J sc , many devices fabricated were able to reach the necessary goals of ~40 mA/cm 2 , ~700 mV, and ~75% FF required for a 21% device. The results generated from this project were disseminated through 11 conference presentations and proceedings. Presentations included oral talks at 2019 IEEE PVSC, 2019 MRS Fall Meeting, 2020 PVSEC-30 and 2021 IEEE PVSC, as well as poster presentations at 2020 IEEE PVSC and 2021 SiPV. The project resulted in 2 peer reviewed publications – one published in IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics and one in ACS Applied Energy Materials. The information gained in this project will aid in development of improved processes for fabrication of high-efficiency solar cells and other areas of the semiconductor device industry as well. The IBC cells will also pave the way for higher efficiency tandem devices. Through further manufacturing of high-efficiency solar cells, more of the world’s energy demands can be met through renewable sources, helping to stave off the worst effects that may come about from global climate change.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

UA'(1): The search for low-mass dark matter in liquid xenon / Infrared Light for Liquid Xenon TPCs

Liquid xenon-based time projection chambers are used in a variety of applications spanning from the search for dark matter or signals from coherent neutrino-nucleus scattering, to detectors used in medicine and for nuclear non-proliferation. Extending the useful energy range of these detectors down to lower energies will prove extremely useful for such applications. However, various sources of single- and few-electron backgrounds limit the utility of experiments such as LZ and XENONnT to searches of lighter dark matter articles in the MeV mass range. These same backgrounds also limit their utility to measure signals from coherent neutrino-nucleus scattering of solar boron-8 neutrinos and Galactic supernovae. This research worked on multiple mitigation strategies to reduce these backgrounds, through improved xenon purity, infrared irradiation, and an improved theoretical understanding. Multiple dedicated liquid xenon setups were built to execute those tests, and data was successfully taken. Liquid xenon purity was shown to have an important impact, but infrared irradiation did not reduce these backgrounds.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

LLNL 5-2428: Fracture Permeability and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameteruncertainty and better predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites.We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. This capability will enable improvedengineering decisions at Utah FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. Utah FORGE management and future EGS operators may employ results of THMC+E models for decision making purposes throughout the lifetime of the field operation. For example, before production well installation, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite ofpossible well locations and flow rates, thus enabling evaluation of optimal production well placement. Such efforts will be conducted throughout the lifetime of the project, whereby additional laboratory experiments will constrain key model parameters and machine learning (ML) will reduce the size of the parameter space and the associated uncertainty. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-Temperature Linear Receiver Enabled by Multicomponent Aerogels

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technology has significant potential mainly due to its dispatchability and low cost of storage. However, to compete with other sources, including utility-scale solar PV, its final cost (cents/kWh) still needs to be lowered. Cost reduction can be achieved by improving the system level efficiency of the CST plants through the deployment of advanced power cycles, which operate at high temperatures of ~700°C. However, optical, and thermal losses pose a major challenge to the efficiency of such CST systems. The overall aim of this project is to investigate and de-risk a linear solar receiver concept called an Aerogel Insulated Receiver (AIR) that generates high temperatures (up to 700°C) at a low solar concentration ratio (<100) and with a high collection efficiency (optical × receiver). Our prior work has demonstrated the thermal stability1 and optical and heat-insulating properties2,3 of transparent aerogel insulation at a one-inch scale. The focus of this work is on (1) co-optimization of the geometry of the aerogel tile and receiver enclosure to fit a standard parabolic collector (PTC), (2) scale-up of aerogels into 4-inch tiles while preserving key properties, (3) experimental measurement of receiver heat loss (W/m) in a >70-cm test stand and validation of anticipated receiver performance at high temperatures. Regarding (1), appropriate optical and thermal models for a parabolic trough receiver (PTR) are developed and validated. The geometry of the aerogels and the receiver enclosure are co-optimized to maximize the collection efficiency. The model predicts a 54% collection efficiency at 700°C for an AIR design based on flat aerogels. By combining the collection efficiency with the power block efficiency of supercritical CO 2 cycles, we predict >10% improvements in peak plant efficiency relative to existing line-focusing CST systems. The application of curved plasmonic aerogels is predicted to further increase the collection efficiency to 64%. Regarding (2), we demonstrate the successful development of 6-inch-long refractory aerogel tiles with optical, thermal, and stability characteristics consistent with our prior work. This scale-up requires a transition to a larger ALD station and modifying the ALD process variables such as exposure time and the number of precursor doses. Regarding (3), we design and develop an AIR test stand measuring 3 feet in length. Heat loss performance analysis is carried out using the test stand. The results indicate that aerogel insulation can significantly reduce receiver thermal losses at the high operating temperatures required for next-generation PTRs. The experimental results agree with the heat loss performance predicted by our receiver model. Lastly, we conducted preliminary failure mode and effects (FMEA) and techno-economic (TEA) analyses to identify failure mitigation strategies and commercial opportunities, respectively. Overall, this project identifies key opportunities and challenges in deploying aerogel insulating receivers in next-generation line-focusing CST technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Mitigation of Molten Salt Corrosion

The desire to increase the peak operational temperature of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants to lower the levelized cost of CSP-derived electricity, has led to consideration of an earth-abundant, low-cost, thermally-stable, molten MgCl 2 -KCl-NaCl (40-40-20 mole%) salt for high-temperature thermal energy storage and heat transfer. The reliable, long-term containment of such a molten salt is challenging, however, due to the corrosion of cost-effective, high-temperature structural metal alloys in this salt (particularly if this salt is contaminated with oxygen-bearing species). This project has been focused on: i) development of equipment for evaluating corrosion kinetics in molten chlorides under well-controlled thermal, fluid dynamic, and atmospheric conditions at CSP-relevant temperatures, ii) use of such equipment to evaluate the influence of forced convection on corrosion kinetics (to determine the role of liquid phase diffusion on such corrosion), and iii) identifying a corrosion-mitigation strategy that can be industrially applied to achieve a projected annual corrosion ≤30 μm at CSP-relevant temperatures. The overall goals of this project have been: i) to understand the rate-limiting step(s) and associated kinetic laws governing corrosion in molten chlorides at 750°C, ii) to determine key operational parameters affecting the corrosion kinetics in molten salts, and iii) to demonstrate the tailoring of such parameters to appreciably reduce such corrosion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Feedstock-Conversion Interface Consortium: Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Summary Report (FY2022)

This report provides an overview of the development of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and its implementation as a systematic criticality and risk assessment tool supporting a quality by design (QbD) approach for FCIC research. This report also provides a high-level overview of the results for the FMEA evaluation of two feedstock preprocessing system configurations: (1) generation of pine residue materials for high-temperature pyrolysis conversion and (2) generation of corn stover materials for low-temperature conversion using deacetylation and disc mechanical refining pretreatment for fermentation to hydrocarbons. For the results presented in this report, our FMEA interviews included two approaches. The first approach was to perform FMEA interviews for the entire system of unit operations giving a wholistic system level view. The second approach consisted of detailed interviews for each individual unit operation within the system allowing for a “deep dive” into the specific failures for the individual components within the configuration. These two approaches provide different resolutions of information. The FMEA results of this report were focused on failures associated with meeting critical quality attributes (CQAs) identified for the target conversion processes for each processed feedstock type. The information gathered through the FMEA interviews include estimations of risk scores for meeting each given CQA specification, identification of the impacts for not meeting a CQA specification, capturing causes associated with material attributes and process parameters for each failure, identification of current detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing a failure’s risk score. The complete results of all FMEA interviews are provided in the Appendices of this report.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

High Frequency Transverse Instabilities in Low NOx Gas Turbines

This program addresses the topic of combustion instabilities under the goal of developing “Low-NOx Combustion Technology for ‘Air-Breathing’ Advanced Turbines”. With recent advances in high-temperature withstanding materials, the push towards higher efficiency has resulted in efforts to design high temperature, low NOx gas turbines. The development of such low NOx systems is often plagued with combustion instabilities. These instabilities manifest with acoustic modes that are longitudinal, transverse or both. A large body of literature and work exists addressing the underlying mechanisms and models for longitudinal instabilities and these have been successfully implemented in the design tools for low NOx gas turbines. The flame response aspect of the thermoacoustic feedback loop was often modeled in an acoustically compact framework since for low frequencies, the flame length scale was small compared to the acoustic wavelength. This enabled simplification where the modeling focused only on the overall flame response and not the local spatial distribution of the flame response. In addition, additional mechanisms such as the direct effect of pressure fluctuations on the flame response could be neglected. In contrast, high frequency instabilities which often are transverse in nature, have received relatively less attention in the literature. The flame is no longer acoustically compact and thus the local distribution of heat release must be accurately understood. The flame responds to velocity fluctuations, equivalence ratio fluctuations as before, but also to pressure fluctuations through kinetic effects. These aspects of high-frequency instabilities make it a challenging problem that requires a detailed elucidation of the underlying mechanisms and creating models for them. In this program we significantly improved the understanding of these instabilities through a combination of experiments (informed by interactions with OEMs), modeling of measured data and reduced order modeling of flame response. The results from the program can be used as basis for robust design tools that are essential for successfully developing gas turbines that operate in an environmentally acceptable manner with mitigation strategies for high-frequency instabilities.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Preliminary Control Rod Life Time Considerations for the Versatile Test Reactor

The Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) is a fast spectrum test reactor currently being developed under the direction of the US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy. VTR will use two independent reactivity control systems: a primary and a secondary reactivity control system. Boron carbide (B 4 C) is the favored absorber material due to the extensive domestic and international experience. The life limit of control rod is analyzed in this report, based on the depletion of B-10, diametral swelling of B 4 C pellet and pressure buildup in the gas plenum. Depletion analysis of the absorber material was performed using MCNP6. It is was shown that both the concentration of B-10 and the CR reactivity worth are about linear with the irradiation time. In the preliminary VTR design, natural boron is considered as absorber material and was determined to provide just enough reactivity worth. Several alternate design options were also analyzed to improve the control rods worth (i.e. increase the shutdown reactivity margin). Using enriched boron as absorber material could increase the control rods worth, while having several drawbacks, such as reduced core excess reactivity, shorter lifetime, and larger peak centerline temperatures. A mitigation strategy to using enriched boron is to use both natural and enriched boron in the control rod, with the natural boron in the lower region of the pins and the enriched boron in the upper region. This design option still allows increasing the CR reactivity worth significantly, while maintaining all the advantages of natural boron.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

EFCOG Best Practice HPI for Knowledge Workers ISM-HPI-22-02

This document is a collection of these best practices as determined by team members. This best practice attempts to: Realize opportunities to break the myth where people believe that HPI does not apply to them as they perform no physical work. Recommend options to create an environment that promotes intellectual collaboration and trust, enabling candor and vulnerability. Explain how errors manifest differently from the same human fallibility. Knowledge workers (KW) have errors that take different perspectives to find and mitigate the unique manifestation of these conditions. Help KW identify the critical steps (or risk important steps) in their processes. Reduce risk/consequence from KW errors (limit latent errors as well as finding latent conditions), building resiliency into KW tasks. Mitigation strategies may be different.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Review and Summary of Oxide Thickness Data for Aluminum-Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owns a large inventory of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) in interim storage pending ultimate disposition, with more being generated by currently operating research reactors. Dry storage in sealed DOE Standard Canisters is being investigated as an approach for long-term interim storage and/or disposition in a repository for ASNF. A primary challenge for ASNF storage is the presence of aluminum (oxy)hydroxide layers formed on the cladding surfaces during water exposure in the reactor and in wet storage, which forms a reservoir of chemisorbed water not readily removed at low (<100°C) drying temperatures. Free, physisorbed, and chemisorbed water are all susceptible to radiolytic breakdown under irradiation and can release hydrogen gas. Identifying the likely range of (oxy)hydroxide loadings on ASNF that may be placed in dry storage will help to ensure that the impact of the (oxy)hydroxide is adequately accounted for while avoiding over conservatism and enable mitigation strategies to be implemented where needed. The current report summarizes information on (oxy)hydroxide thicknesses and characteristics from the literature and from recent measurements taken in the present research campaign. In general, corrosion studies have indicated that the corrosion and oxide buildup on aluminum are affected by numerous conditions, including pH, temperature and heat flux, coolant flowrates, irradiation (in-reactor vs. unirradiated tests), duration of water exposure, and the amount of oxide already on the surface. Some of these factors are interrelated (e.g., the local temperature, heat flux, and coolant flowrate). Observations of the impact of irradiation (in-reactor versus ex-reactor measurements) on corrosion and oxide thickness are mixed, but multiple studies indicate that there is a significant difference between in-reactor and ex-reactor corrosion kinetics, even when other operating conditions such as pH, flowrate, heat flux, etc., simulate those in a reactor.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

SRF Cavity Fault Classification and Prediction at Jefferson Lab

Over the last few years several machine learning projects at Jefferson Lab have had a common focus to optimize operation of superconducting RF (SRF) cavities in the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). In this talk we highlight work to identify and classify types of faults from C100-type cavities and then to extend those capabilities to provide real-time fault prediction. Early prediction may enable mitigation strategies to prevent some types of faults. In our approach we apply a two-step fault prediction pipeline. In the first step, a model distinguishes between faulty and normal signals. In the second step, signals flagged as faulty by the first model are classified into one of seven fault types based on learned signatures in the data. Initial results show that our model can successfully predict most fault types 200 ms before onset. In additional to model performance, we also highlight challenges in working with real-world data and challenges for deploying models.

Tennant, C.↗

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗