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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

PaleoSTeHM v1.0: a modern, scalable spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling framework for paleo-environmental data

Abstract. Geological records of past environmental change provide crucial insights into long-term climate variability, trends, non-stationarity, and nonlinear feedback mechanisms. However, reconstructing spatiotemporal fields from these records is statistically challenging due to their sparse, indirect, and noisy nature. Here, we present PaleoSTeHM, a scalable and modern framework for spatiotemporal hierarchical modeling of paleo-environmental data. This framework enables the implementation of flexible statistical models that rigorously quantify spatial and temporal variability from geological data while clearly distinguishing measurement and inferential uncertainty from process variability. We illustrate its application by reconstructing temporal and spatiotemporal paleo-sea-level changes across multiple locations. Using various modeling and analysis choices, PaleoSTeHM demonstrates the impact of different methods on inference results and computational efficiency. Our results highlight the critical role of model selection in addressing specific paleo-environmental questions, showcasing the PaleoSTeHM framework's potential to enhance the robustness and transparency of paleo-environmental reconstructions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

System and method for extracting dominant orientations from a scene

In one embodiment, a method of identifying the dominant orientations of a scene comprises representing a scene as a plurality of directional vectors. The scene may comprise a three-dimensional representation of a scene, and the plurality of directional vectors may comprise a plurality of surface normals. The method further comprises determining, based on the plurality of directional vectors, a plurality of orientations describing the scene. The determined plurality of orientations explains the directionality of the plurality of directional vectors. In certain embodiments, the plurality of orientations may have independent axes of rotation. The plurality of orientations may be determined by representing the plurality of directional vectors as lying on a mathematical representation of a sphere, and inferring the parameters of a statistical model to adapt the plurality of orientations to explain the positioning of the plurality of directional vectors lying on the mathematical representation of the sphere.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Arctic Methane, Carbon Aerosols, and Tracers Study Field Campaign Report

The Arctic Methane, Carbon Aerosols, and Tracers Study was a measurement campaign at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Barrow Observatory and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites in Barrow (formerly known as Utqiagvik) that involved the deployment of instruments to measure CH4, black carbon (BC), and source tracers. The campaign ran from September 1, 2014 to September 1, 2016 and was extended until July 30, 2017. We deployed an in situ instrument to measure methane, the ratio of its isotopologues 13CH4/12CH4, and ethane. We deployed a second instrument to measure carbon monoxide, carbonyl sulfide (COS), carbon dioxide, and water vapor. We also deployed an in situ instrument to measure BC, a single-particle soot photometer (SP2), at the nearby NOAA Barrow Observatory, co-located with the other NOAA aerosol instruments. Changes in emissions across different regions and seasons will be inferred using atmospheric transport and inverse modeling techniques.

North Slope of Alaska, trace gases, black carbon, ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Gravitational Wave Cosmology and Astrophysics with Large Spectroscopic Galaxy Surveys

During the next decade, gravitational waves will be observed from hundreds of binary inspiral events. When the redshifts of the host galaxies are known, these events can be used as `standard sirens', sensitive to the expansion rate of the Universe. Measurements of the Hubble constant $H_0$ from standard sirens can be done independently of other cosmological probes, and events occurring at $z<0.1$ will allow us to infer $H_0$ independently of cosmological models. The next generation of spectroscopic galaxy surveys will play a crucial role in reducing systematic uncertainties in $H_0$ from standard sirens, particularly for the numerous `dark sirens' which do not have an electromagnetic counterpart. In combination with large spectroscopic data sets, standard sirens with an EM counterpart are expected to constrain $H_0$ to $\sim 1-2\%$ precision within the next decade. This is competitive with the best estimates of $H_0$ obtained to date and will help illuminate the current tension between existing measurements. Information on the galaxies that host the gravitational wave events will also shed light on the origin and evolution of compact object binaries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Gravitational wave cosmology and astrophysics with large spectroscopic galaxy surveys

During the next decade, gravitational waves will be observed from hundreds of binary inspiral events. When the redshifts of the host galaxies are known, these events can be used as `standard sirens', sensitive to the expansion rate of the Universe. Measurements of the Hubble constant H 0 from standard sirens can be done independently of other cosmological probes, and events occurring at $z<0.1$ will allow us to infer H 0 independently of cosmological models. The subsequent generation of spectroscopic galaxy surveys will play a significant role in reducing systematic uncertainties in H 0 from standard sirens, particularly for the numerous `dark sirens' which do not have an electromagnetic counterpart. In combination with large spectroscopic data sets, standard sirens with an EM counterpart are expected to constrain H 0 to ~1-2% precision within the next decade. This is competitive with the best estimates of H 0 obtained to date and will help highlight the current tension between existing measurements. Information on the galaxies that host the gravitational wave events will further shed light on the origin and evolution of compact object binaries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recent Developments at the Raft River Geothermal Field

The Raft River geothermal field, located in Cassia County in southwestern Idaho, is the site of a Department of Energy Enhanced Geothermal System project. U.S. Geothermal, Inc. currently produces about 11 MWe from Precambrian metamorphic rocks. These lie beneath ~5,000 ft of Quaternary and Tertiary volcaniclastic and volcanic deposits. Maximum temperatures range from 271°F to 300°F. Well RRG-9 ST1, the well targeted for stimulation is located approximately 1 mile south of the main bore field. The open hole section of the well, from 5,551 to 5,900 ft MD, consists of Precambrian Elba Quartzite, the stimulation target, granite and minor diabase. Prior to setting the casing acoustic, gamma ray, and density logs were run. After completing the well, a step rate/step down test was conducted. The maximum injection rate achieved was 18 bpm at a wellhead pressure of 1,150 psig. A borehole televiewer run in the open hole section showed evidence of more than eighty fractures. The majority of these fractures trend from N20⁰W to N20°E and dip from 40° to 60°W. Permeable fractures were encountered in the Elba Quartzite at 5,640-5,660 ft MD. Analysis of the injection test indicates that the minimum in-situ principal stress in this zone is 3,050-3,200 psi, corresponding to a fracture gradient of 0.59-0.62 psi/ft. A discrete fracture network model was developed using measured and inferred fracture orientations, distributions and dimensions. A three-phase stimulation program is proposed for RRG-9 ST-1. During the first two stages, water at 140°F, and later 40°F, will be injected to pre-condition and thermally fracture the reservoir. Here, the third stage will consist of a high rate, large volume conventional hydraulic stimulation.

Bradford, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2026

PRIME: An evaluation framework for protein representation inference and generalization in viral mutation space

Background Protein language models (PLMs) have revolutionized protein fitness prediction, yet their application to rapidly evolving viral pathogens is often confounded by extreme sequence homology. This homology leads to “data leakage” in standard random validation splits, yielding inflated performance metrics that fail to translate into real-world biosurveillance utility. Results We present Protein Representation Inference for Mutation Evaluation (PRIME), a framework that integrates domain-specific fine-tuning with a rigorous position-stratified validation protocol to evaluate viral threats. Using a dataset of 347,432 SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD) sequences, we demonstrate that while random training data split yields deceptive R 2 values (> 0.90), they fail to generalize to novel mutational sites. By benchmarking models up to 650 M parameters, we show that domain-specific fine-tuning of the ESM-C 600 M model with correctly stratified data provides an initial demonstration of predictive signal for binding affinity and expression at unseen mutational sites of binding affinity and expression on unseen sites (R 2 ~0.23), a significant advancement over base foundation models which exhibit no predictive power (R 2 <0). PRIME’s embedding-based clustering identified 3.03% of bat coronavirus sequences as candidates for further experimental prioritization based on their functional similarity to human-infective strains in embedding space, offering a perspective complementary to traditional phylogenetic methods. Conclusion PRIME establishes a new benchmark for the application of PLMs in pathogen surveillance. Our findings demonstrate that state-of-the-art models and fine-tuning, when paired with stratified validation, provide biologically meaningful insights into pathogen evolution and zoonotic risk.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Imprecise global sensitivity analysis using bayesian multimodel inference and importance sampling

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) aims to understand the relative importance of uncertain input variables to model response. Conventional GSA involves calculating sensitivity (Sobol’) indices for a model with known model parameter distributions. However, model parameters are affected by aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, with the latter often caused by lack of data. In this paper, we propose a new framework to quantify uncertainty in probability model-form and model parameters resulting from small datasets and integrate these uncertainties into Sobol’ index estimates. First, the process establishes, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate probability models and their associated probabilities. Imprecise Sobol’ indices are calculated from these probability models using an importance sampling reweighting approach. This results in probabilistic Sobol’ indices, whose distribution characterizes uncertainty in the sensitivity resulting from small dataset size. The imprecise Sobol’ indices thus provide a measure of confidence in the sensitivity estimate and, moreover, can be used to inform data collection efforts targeted to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Through an example studying the parameters of a Timoshenko beam, we show that these probabilistic Sobol’ indices converge to the true/deterministic Sobol’ indices as the dataset size increases and hence, distribution-form uncertainty reduces. The approach is then applied to assess the sensitivity of the out-of-plane properties of an E-glass fiber composite material to its constituent properties. This second example illustrates the approach for an important class of materials with wide-ranging applications when data may be lacking for some input parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning framework for accurate and robust analysis of radiation detector pulses

The microscopic properties of atomic nuclei are used to study various scientific questions. They are essential for understanding the fundamental forces of nature and the chemical evolution of the universe. Detecting decay radiation from radioactive nuclei makes it possible to probe these fundamental nuclear properties. Detector waveform traces may contain additional information about the radiation. Generally, advanced signal processing techniques are needed to extract this additional information, often involving fitting the waveform with model response functions using non-linear least-squares optimization with second-order gradient methods. While this is a powerful technique, it is also computationally expensive, leading to slow processing time, which scales with the volume of data. To address this problem, we have developed a machine learning (ML) approach that infers the characteristics of traces from a model detector response function. In particular, we are interested in classifying whether a single recorded trace consists of one or two pulse constituents and estimating the pulse parameters. Furthermore, our proposed ML method can precisely extract the pulses’ parameters, such as energy and timing information, and accurately classify the pulse multiplicity of a trace. Unlike non-learning-based approaches, our ML approach uses neural networks that are significantly faster at inference, as they do not require any optimization during this stage.

Curve fitting↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating nonlocal heat transport in directly driven chromium spheres using x-ray spectroscopy

We report on experiments investigating heat transport in laser-generated plasmas using directly driven chromium spheres. The spheres are fielded at the OMEGA laser facility and are driven with laser intensities of 5×10 14 Wcm −2 . Plasma conditions in the corona and scattered light are measured experimentally and compared against predictions from two-dimensional (2D) radiation-hydrodynamic simulations using different heat transport models. Spectroscopic analysis of x-ray self-emission is used as an additional diagnostic. X-ray emission is integrated over a large region of the plasma, probing regions that are not observed by localized optical Thomson scattering. In particular, x-ray emission peaks near the plasma critical density, so emission from optically thin lines provides information on plasma conditions where nonlocal transport is most likely to be significant. Three common heat transport models are considered: local transport with flux limiters f = 0.15 and f = 0.03, and the nonlocal Schurtz–Nicolai–Busquet (SNB) model. Consistent with previous work, both the high-flux (f = 0.15) and SNB models show good agreement with experimentally measured plasma conditions in the corona despite overpredicting laser absorption, whereas the low-flux (f = 0.03) model fails to match any experimental data. Conditions inferred from x-ray self-emission line ratios support this conclusion during the period of laser peak power, although synthetic spectra for all models fail to match the experiment during the transient portions of the pulse. For these reasons, the low-flux model is again rejected.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Redshift remapping and cosmic acceleration in dark-matter-dominated cosmological models

The standard relation between the cosmological redshift and cosmic scale factor underlies cosmological inference from virtually all kinds of cosmological observations, leading to the emergence of the LambdaCDM cosmological model. This relation is not a fundamental theory and thus observational determination of this function (redshift remapping) should be regarded as an insightful alternative to holding its standard form in analyses of cosmological data. We present non-parametric reconstructions of redshift remapping in dark-matter-dominated models and constraints on cosmological parameters from a joint analysis of all primary cosmological probes including the local measurement of the Hubble constant, Type Ia supernovae, baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO), Planck observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation (temperature power spectrum) and cosmic chronometers. The reconstructed redshift remapping points to an additional boost of redshift operating in late epoch of cosmic evolution, but affecting both low-redshift observations and the CMB. The model then predicts a significant difference between the actual Hubble constant, h=0.48±0.02, and its local determination, h obs =0.73±0.02. The ratio of these two values coincides closely with the maximum expansion rate inside voids formed in the corresponding open cosmological model with Ω m =0.87±0.03, whereas the actual value of the Hubble constant implies the age of the Universe that is compatible with the Planck LambdaCDM cosmology. The new dark-matter-dominated model with redshift remapping provides excellent fits to all data and eliminates recently reported tensions between the Planck LambdaCDM cosmology, the local determination of the Hubble constant and the BAO measurements from the Ly α forest of high-redshift quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tractable minor-free generalization of planar zero-field Ising models

In this work, we present a new family of zero-field Ising models over N binary variables/spins obtained by consecutive 'gluing' of planar and O(1)-sized components and subsets of at most three vertices into a tree. The polynomial time algorithm of the dynamic programming type for solving exact inference (computing partition function) and exact sampling (generating i.i.d. samples) consists of sequential application of an efficient (for planar) or brute-force (for O(1)-sized) inference and sampling to the components as a black box. To illustrate the utility of the new family of tractable graphical models, we first build a polynomial algorithm for inference and sampling of zero-field Ising models over K 33 -minor-free topologies and over K 5 -minor-free topologies—both of which are extensions of the planar zero-field Ising models—which are neither genus- nor treewidth-bounded. Second, we empirically demonstrate an improvement in the approximation quality of the NP-hard problem of inference over the square-grid Ising model in a node-dependent nonzero 'magnetic' field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

PyApprox: Enabling efficient model analysis

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of scientific numerical models. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent the most popular methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. Simple interfaces are provided for the most commonly-used algorithms to limit a user’s need to tune the various hyper-parameters of each algorithm. However, more advanced work flows that require customization of hyper-parameters is also supported. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of different algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. This paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in ground water.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions

Abstract. Managing water resources in a complex adaptive natural–human system is a challenge due to the difficulty of modeling human behavior under uncertain risk perception. The interaction between human-engineered systems and natural processes needs to be modeled explicitly with an approach that can quantify the influence of incomplete/ambiguous information on decision-making processes. In this study, we two-way coupled an agent-based model (ABM) with a river-routing and reservoir management model (RiverWare) to address this challenge. The human decision-making processes is described in the ABM using Bayesian inference (BI) mapping joined with a cost–loss (CL) model (BC-ABM). Incorporating BI mapping into an ABM allows an agent's psychological thinking process to be specified by a cognitive map between decisions and relevant preceding factors that could affect decision-making. A risk perception parameter is used in the BI mapping to represent an agent's belief on the preceding factors. Integration of the CL model addresses an agent's behavior caused by changing socioeconomic conditions. We use the San Juan River basin in New Mexico, USA, to demonstrate the utility of this method. The calibrated BC-ABM–RiverWare model is shown to capture the dynamics of historical irrigated area and streamflow changes. The results suggest that the proposed BC-ABM framework provides an improved representation of human decision-making processes compared to conventional rule-based ABMs that do not take risk perception into account. Future studies will focus on modifying the BI mapping to consider direct agents' interactions, up-front cost of agent's decision, and upscaling the watershed ABM to the regional scale.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Early Alarm: Robust Event Analysis for Power Systems using 1-D Fully Convolutional Network

This work presents a novel deep learning model for early, accurate, and robust detection, recognition, and temporal localization of multi-type events in large-scale power systems. The proposed method develops a unified 1-D fully convolutional network (FCN) model that takes time series of raw frequency signals measured from a power system as input, extracts distinguishing features, and predicts at every temporal point in the time series if an event is happening and what the type of the event is. Compared to existing methods, the proposed model eliminates the necessity for hand-crafted feature extraction or complicated data pre-processing, can flexibly handle input signals of arbitrary length, and precisely infer the event occurrence time. Most importantly, the model is intentionally trained with incomplete patterns, such that it is more robust to partial features of an event which is common in real-world online recognition, resulting in early alarm for power system failures. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance to the state-of-the-art, and also shows strong robustness to noise and system oscillations.

Li, Chengcheng↗
DOE OSTI2025

AK112: Full Waveform Inversion Tomography of Alaska Improves Waveform Fits While Imaging Crustal, Mantle, and Slab Structure

We report a full waveform inversion tomography model of Alaska and the surrounding regions, inferring radially anisotropic shear and isotropic compressional wavespeeds by fitting complete waveforms from 120 regional earthquakes. Our multiscale approach inverted time–frequency phase misfits (maximum period of 100 s), starting with a minimum period of 40 s and ending at 20 s in 7 stages and 112 total iterations. The model (AK112) was evaluated by computing the misfits for 36 independent validation events. We find that misfit reductions were large and equal (∼55%) for both the inversion and validation data sets, providing confidence in the model. AK112 also provides much better waveform fits compared to other reported models for the region, including an isotropic version of itself, highlighting the importance of anisotropy. The model resolves known crustal, upper mantle, and slab structure to depths of 100 km with new detail: sedimentary basins in the Alaskan Shelf, Cook Inlet, and Colville basins, among others; discontinuous lithospheric structure across major terrane boundaries; and subducting slab geometry and back‐arc volcanic sources. In addition to tectonic interpretations, the model enables full waveform simulations for long‐period earthquake ground motions and source characterization (e.g., moment tensor and finite‐fault inversion).

Rodgers, Arthur [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗