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DOE OSTI2017

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed to estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our laboratory.

Olama, Mohammed M.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

Melin, Alexander M.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Integrated FHR technology development: Tritium management, materials testing, salt chemistry control, thermal hydraulics and neutronics, associated benchmarking and commercial basis

This report summarizes the results of a 3-year Integrated Research Project (IRP) sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to address major technical challenges in the development of the Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR). The IRP universities included the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the University of California at Berkeley (UCB), the University of Wisconsin (UW), and the University of New Mexico (UNM). The FHR is a new reactor concept less than 20 years old that combines (1) a clean fluoride salt coolant, (2) the graphite-matrix coated-particle fuel originally developed for High- Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors and (3) passive decay heat removal systems from sodium fast reactors. The base-line design is a pebble-bed FHR that delivers heat between 600 to 700°C with a 7 Li 2 BeF 4 (flibe) salt coolant to the power cycle or industrial users. The Executive Summary describes what was accomplished and summarizes major conclusions. The main report contains stand-alone sections in each major area of work. Highlights are summarized below. Tritium. The coolant salt produces tritium necessitating understanding and control of tritium. Experimental work included measuring hydrogen uptake on carbon, tritium uptake during irradiation of graphite in 700°C salt and the permeability of tritium through metals with and without coatings. An FHR systems model was developed to predict tritium behavior and enable design of tritium control systems. The leading candidate for tritium removal from the flibe salt is carbon bed outside the reactor core. Thermal hydraulics and Neutronics. A 10-meter high FHR integral effects test facility, using Dowtherm A®, has been built and used to simulate the integral response of a representative FHR to improve understanding of FHR thermal hydraulics and validate thermal hydraulics codes used for the FHR. Neutronic analysis included code-to-code benchmarking, multiphysics modeling, uncertainty analysis for nuclear data uncertainties and shielding analysis. Twisted-tube heat exchangers were examined that may provide significant cost reductions because of their improved heat-transfer performance with liquid salts. The impacts on safety and design caused by uncertainties in physical properties of the salt were assessed with recommendations on where added physical property measurements are needed. Work began on understanding radiative heat transfer that becomes important in salt systems at higher temperatures. Materials. Static corrosion tests were conducted on graphite and materials in 700°C salt -- both in the UW laboratory and in the MIT reactor. In addition to static corrosion testing, a circulating salt corrosion loop was built and is operating. Methods to measure salt properties including redox were developed. The presence of carbon increases corrosion. With good redox control, the evidence indicates stainless steel can be used as a material of construction. Benchmarking. An additional series of workshops where held to enable benchmarking and comparison of results between different investigators. Commercialization. The FHR delivers higher average-temperature (~650°C) heat to the power cycle or industry than other reactors. This enables power cycles with lower-cost heat storage for variable electricity to the grid while the reactor operates at base-load -- providing a major competitive advantage by maximizing revenue from electricity sales. In October, 2016, a new startup company named Kairos Power was formed, and opened its first office in Jack London Square, Oakland, California, in January 2017. Kairos Power exists largely due to the work that was accomplished by this IRP and the previous DOE-funded FHR IRP that performed research on FHR technology from 2012 to 2015. In September, 2018, as this IRP is concluding, Kairos Power was staffed at 60 full time employees, working to develop technology derived from this IRP. Many of these employees worked with the IRP before joining Kairos Power 1 (https://kairospower.com). Other students and researchers from this IRP have joined other startup companies, including the Terrapower Molten Chloride Fast Reactor and the Terrestrial Energy development efforts.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Extrapolating Contaminant Effects from Individuals to Populations: A Case Study on Nanoparticle Toxicity to Daphnia Fed Environmentally Relevant Food Levels

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is charged with assessing the likelihood a chemical will have adverse environmental or ecological effects. When assessing the risk of a potential contaminant to biological organisms, ecologists are most concerned with the sustainability of populations of organisms, rather than protecting every individual. However, ERA most commonly relies on data on the effect of a potential contaminant on individuals because these experiments are more feasible than costly population-level exposures. In this work, we address the challenge of extrapolating these individual-level results to predict population-level effects. Previous per-capita population growth rate estimates calculated from individual-level exposures of Daphnia pulicaria to silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) at different food rations predict a critical daily food requirement for daphnid populations exposed to 200 μg/L AgNPs to avoid extinction. To test this, we exposed daphnid populations to the same AgNP concentration at three different food inputs, with the lowest ration close to the extinction threshold predicted from data on individuals. The two populations with the higher food inputs persisted, and the population with the lowest food input went extinct after 50 days but did persist through two generations. Further, we demonstrate that we can extrapolate between these levels of biological organization by parameterizing an individual-level biomass model with data on individuals’ response to AgNPs and using these parameters to predict the outcome for control and AgNP-exposed populations. Key to successful extrapolation is careful modeling of temporal changes in resource density, driven by both the experimental protocols and feedback from the consumer. The implication for ecotoxicology is that estimates of extinction thresholds based on studies of individuals may be reliable predictors of population outcomes, but only with careful treatment of resource dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

IBR Bulk System Protection Issues and Modeling Challenges

Issue to be Address: Difficulty in predicting Inverter (IBR) generation dynamic response characteristics. Main challenges are unavailability of proprietary control details for modeling and the aggregate mixed IBRs with different dynamic response characteristics all contributing during system faults. Framework for Discussion: Identifying issues by sharing experience Reviewing options to improve IBR modeling accuracy, computation speed, use of test results. Presenting related research by EPRI and PG&E (DOE project) Desired Outcomes: Provide technical update for participants Get feedback and suggestions for ongoing research Improve research collaboration

IBR, Protection Challenges, dynamic response, IBR ↗

DOE OSTI2013

Multiscale analysis of stamp forming of a woven composite

The stamp forming of a woven composite with thermoplastic matrix was investigated in this study. A Mesoscale finite element model of a unit cell of a 2 x 2 twill weave of pre-impregnated tows was used to estimate the effective in-plane shear properties for modeling forming processes and predicting formability. In-plane shear stiffness was shown to be a controlling factor in the formability of unconsolidated textile sheets. The Stamp forming of a cone-shaped part was modeled for comparison with the experiments. Results show that the simplified process modeling scheme has the potential to predict issues with wrinkling during die closure. Furthermore, the present work suggests that complex representations of the relatively small fiber direction strains may be unwarranted for this type of process modeling.

Garnich, Mark R.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Role of Defects in Swelling and Creep of Irradiated SiC

Silicon carbide is a promising cladding material because of its high strength and relatively good corrosion resistance. However, SiC is brittle and therefore SiC-based components need to be carefully designed to avoid cracking and failure by fracture. In design of SiC-based composites for nuclear reactor applications it is essential to take into account how mechanical properties are affected by radiation and temperature, or in other words, what strains and stresses develop in this material due to environmental conditions. While thermal strains in SiC can be predicted using classical theories, radiation-induced strains are much less understood. In particular, it is critical to correctly account for radiation swelling and radiation creep, which contribute significantly to dimensional instability of SiC under radiation. Swelling typically increases logarithmically with radiation dose and saturates at relatively low doses (damage levels of a few dpa). Consequently, swelling-induced stresses are likely to develop within a few months of operation of a reactor. Radiation-induced volume swelling in SiC can be as high as 2%, which is significantly higher than the cracking strain of 0.1% in SiC. Swelling-induced strains will lead to enormous stresses and fracture, unless these stresses can be relaxed via some other mechanism. An effective way to achieve stress relaxation is via radiation creep. Although it has been hypothesized that both radiation swelling and radiation creep are driven by formation of defect clusters, existing models for swelling and creep in SiC are limited by the lack of understanding of specific defects that form due to radiation in the range of temperatures relevant to fuel cladding in light water reactors (LWRs) (<1000°C). For example, defects that can be detected with traditional transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques account only for 10-45% of the swelling measured in irradiated SiC. Here, we have undertaken an integrated experimental and modeling effort to discover the previously invisible defects in irradiated SiC and to determine the contributions of these defects to radiation swelling. Knowledge of the most stable defect structures and the rate controlling processes during defect evolution is essential for development of predictive models for swelling and creep as a function of temperature and radiation dose. This research has been enabled by state-of-the-art imaging techniques, such as the aberration corrected scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) (FEI TITAN) closely coupled with multi-scale models of stable defect clusters and their evolution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Runtime Concurrency Control and Operation Scheduling for High Performance Neural Network Training

In this paper, we extend an existing runtime system (the TensorFlow runtime) to enable automatic concurrency control and scheduling of operations. We explore performance modeling to predict the performance of operations with various thread- level parallelism. Our performance model is highly accurate and lightweight. Leveraging the performance model, our runtime system employs a set of scheduling strategies that co-run opera- tions to improve hardware utilization and system throughput. Our runtime system demonstrates a significant performance benefit. Comparing with using the recommended configurations for concurrency control and operation scheduling in TensorFlow, our approach achieves 36% performance (execution time) im- provement on average (up to 49%) for four neural network models, and achieves high performance close to the optimal one manually obtained by the user.

Liu, Jiawen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Train, Inform, Borrow, or Combine? Approaches to Process–Guided Deep Learning for Groundwater–Influenced Stream Temperature Prediction

Although groundwater discharge is a critical stream temperature control process, it is not explicitly represented in many stream temperature models, an omission that may reduce predictive accuracy, hinder management of aquatic habitat, and decrease user confidence. We assessed the performance of a previously-described process-guided deep learning model of stream temperature in the Delaware River Basin (USA). We found lower accuracy (root mean square error [RMSE] of 1.71 versus 1.35°C) and stronger seasonal bias (absolute mean monthly bias of 1.06 vs. 0.68°C) for reaches primarily influenced by deep groundwater as compared to atmospheric conditions. We then tested four approaches for improving groundwater process representation: (a) a custom loss function leveraging the unique patterns of air and water temperature coupling characteristic of different temperature drivers, (b) inclusion of additional groundwater-relevant catchment attributes, (c) incorporation of additional process model outputs, and (d) a composite model. The custom loss function and the additional attributes significantly improved the predictive accuracy in groundwater-dominated reaches (RMSE of 1.37 and 1.26°C) and reduced the seasonal bias (absolute mean monthly bias of 0.44 and 0.48°C), but neither approach could identify holdout groundwater reaches. Variable importance analysis indicates the custom loss function nudges the model to use the existing inputs more efficiently, whereas with the added features the model relies on a broader suite of inputs. This analysis is a substantial step toward more accurately representing groundwater discharge processes in stream temperature models and will improve predictive accuracy and inform habitat management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Process Modeling Tools for Determining Variability in Additively Manufactured Parts

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program aims to accelerate the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy However, the unique aspects of additive manufacturing (AM) materials in terms of their processing history, microstructure, and properties, are a major barrier for qualification and certification of nuclear components. Much of this challenge may be attributed to component scale variations in microstructure and properties that are driven by local influences of process conditions and geometry on thermal history, melt pool dynamics, and corresponding microstructure evolution. Computational modeling tools may be helpful in this regard to aid in predicting and controlling this level of variability. The purpose of this report is to review the current state-of-the-art for process modeling with regards to metal AM. For this purpose, we consider specifically the case study of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) processing of SS316, a family of alloys that are both commonly used in nuclear energy applications and suitable for AM processing. The report first introduces the necessary components of a process modeling workflow, followed by a review of the current status of each. At the end, application of these modeling tools to understanding variability in AM process given their current state are considered, and recommendations for future development are proposed

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2014

Portal dosimetry for VMAT using integrated images obtained during treatment

Purpose: Portal dosimetry provides an accurate and convenient means of verifying dose delivered to the patient. A simple method for carrying out portal dosimetry for volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) is described, together with phantom measurements demonstrating the validity of the approach. Methods: Portal images were predicted by projecting dose in the isocentric plane through to the portal image plane, with exponential attenuation and convolution with a double-Gaussian scatter function. Appropriate parameters for the projection were selected by fitting the calculation model to portal images measured on an iViewGT portal imager (Elekta AB, Stockholm, Sweden) for a variety of phantom thicknesses and field sizes. This model was then used to predict the portal image resulting from each control point of a VMAT arc. Finally, all these control point images were summed to predict the overall integrated portal image for the whole arc. The calculated and measured integrated portal images were compared for three lung and three esophagus plans delivered to a thorax phantom, and three prostate plans delivered to a homogeneous phantom, using a gamma index for 3% and 3 mm. A 0.6 cm{sup 3} ionization chamber was used to verify the planned isocentric dose. The sensitivity of this method to errors in monitor units, field shaping, gantry angle, and phantom position was also evaluated by means of computer simulations. Results: The calculation model for portal dose prediction was able to accurately compute the portal images due to simple square fields delivered to solid water phantoms. The integrated images of VMAT treatments delivered to phantoms were also correctly predicted by the method. The proportion of the images with a gamma index of less than unity was 93.7% ± 3.0% (1SD) and the difference between isocenter dose calculated by the planning system and measured by the ionization chamber was 0.8% ± 1.0%. The method was highly sensitive to errors in monitor units and field shape, but less sensitive to errors in gantry angle or phantom position. Conclusions: This method of predicting integrated portal images provides a convenient means of verifying dose delivered using VMAT, with minimal image acquisition and data processing requirements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Vertical control of DIII-D discharges with strong negative triangularity

Through predictive modeling validated by a series of experiments on DIII-D, the vertical stability of low β diverted plasmas with strong negative triangularity (NT) ($\delta\sim-0.6$) is assessed. As a result of their unique magnetic geometry, NT plasmas feature larger Shafranov shifts and more elongated inner flux surfaces than positive triangularity counterparts, typically leading to enhanced vertical instability growth rates. However, coupling with the non-conformal vessel DIII-D wall reduces these growth rates to controllable values, providing a path forward for stabilizing strongly NT plasma with a diverted geometry. These discharges are used to validate GSdesign (part of the TokSys code suite) stability calculations in strong NT plasmas on DIII-D, with errors of no more than ~20% observed between modeled and experimentally measured growth rates. Additions of diagnostic noise and power supply tuning to the TokSys model are needed to accurately capture the time dependence of DIII-D NT discharges, assisting with the design of control schemes specific to the DIII-D poloidal field coils. Lastly, implications of these results on a future NT reactor are briefly described.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of non-intuitive metabolic targets with bayesian metabolic control analysis to improve 3-hydroxypropionic acid production in Aspergillus niger

Development of efficient bioconversion processes is limited by the ability to predictably improve metabolic flux. Here we deployed Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis as a platform to integrate multi-omics data with metabolic modeling and evaluated its ability to predict genetic interventions that improve metabolic flux. Global Metabolomics and proteomics data was collected from 17 Aspergillus niger strains engineered to produce the platform biochemical 3-hydroxypropionic acid from which seven actional genetic interventions were predicted from significant flux control coefficients. Of the suggested genetic interventions, two were present within the intuitively designed strains used for training (malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase and pyruvate carboxylase) while five predicted targets were present within non-intuitive areas of the metabolic network including 5-formyltetrahydrofolate deformylase and four mitochondrial enzymes, alcohol dehydrogenase, succinyl-CoA ligase, aspartate aminotransferase, and malate dehydrogenase. Six of the targets were validated in the highest performing 3-HP strain used for multi-omics data generation which contained a prior disruption of the highest scoring target malonic semialdehyde dehydrogenase. Predicted directional perturbation of five of the six tested targets significantly improved titer and rate of 3-HP production and two significantly improved yield. The greatest improvements were observed following disruption of the non-intuitive target succinyl-CoA ligase which increased titer by 39% and yield by 29% (to 20.4 g/L 3-HP and 0.31 g 3-HP/g glucose) over the strains used for training. This study demonstrates the utility of Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis and highlights the ability to predict meaningful genetic targets in unexpected areas of metabolism to improve engineered strains for bioconversion.

3-hydroxypropionic acid↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-based ethylene concentration estimation, real-time optimization and feedback control of an experimental electrochemical reactor

With the increase in electricity supply from clean energy sources, electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has received increasing attention as an alternative source of carbon-based fuels. As CO 2 reduction is becoming a stronger alternative for the clean production of chemicals, the need to model, optimize and control the electrochemical reduction of the CO 2 process becomes inevitable. However, on one hand, a first-principles model to represent the electrochemical CO 2 reduction has not been fully developed yet because of the complexity of its reaction mechanism, which makes it challenging to define a precise state-space model for the control system. On the other hand, the unavailability of efficient concentration measurement sensors continues to challenge our ability to develop feedback control systems. Gas chromatography (GC) is the most common equipment for monitoring the gas product composition, but it requires a period of time to analyze the sample, which means that GC can provide only delayed measurements during the operation. Moreover, the electrochemical CO 2 reduction process is catalyzed by a fast-deactivating copper catalyst and undergoes a selectivity shift from the product-of-interest at the later stages of experiments, which can pose a challenge for conventional control methods. To this end, machine learning (ML) techniques provide a potential approach to overcome those difficulties due to their demonstrated ability to capture the dynamic behavior of a chemical process from data. Motivated by the above considerations, we propose a machine learning-based modeling methodology that integrates support vector regression and first-principles modeling to capture the dynamic behavior of an experimental electrochemical reactor; this model, together with limited gas chromatography measurements, is employed to predict the evolution of gas-phase ethylene concentration. The model prediction is directly used in a proportional-integral (PI) controller that manipulates the applied potential to regulate the gas-phase ethylene concentration at energy-optimal set-point values computed by a real-time process optimizer (RTO). Specifically, the RTO calculates the operation set-point by solving an optimization problem to maximize the economic benefit of the reactor. Finally, suitable compensation methods are introduced to further account for the experimental uncertainties and handle catalyst deactivation. The proposed modeling, optimization, and control approaches are the first demonstration of active control for a CO 2 electrolyzer and contribute to the automation and scale-up efforts for electrified manufacturing of fuels and chemicals starting from CO 2 .

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Experiments and Model for Serration Statistics in Low-Entropy, Medium-Entropy, and High-Entropy Alloys

High-entropy alloys (HEAs) are new alloys that contain five or more elements in roughly equal proportion. We present new experiments and theory on the deformation behavior of HEAs under slow stretching (straining), and observe differences, compared to conventional alloys with fewer elements. For a specific range of temperatures and strain-rates, HEAs deform in a jerky way, with sudden slips that make it difficult to precisely control the deformation. An analytic model explains these slips as avalanches of slipping weak spots and predicts the observed slip statistics, stress-strain curves, and their dependence on temperature, strain-rate, and material composition. The ratio of the weak spots’ healing rate to the strain-rate is the main tuning parameter, reminiscent of the Portevin-LeChatellier effect and time-temperature superposition in polymers. Our model predictions agree with the experimental results. The proposed widely-applicable deformation mechanism is useful for deformation control and alloys design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Field Test of Wake Steering at an Offshore Wind Farm

In this paper, a field test of wake steering control is presented. The field test is the result of a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Envision Energy, a smart energy management company and turbine manufacturer. In the campaign, an array of turbines within an operating commercial offshore wind farm in China have the normal yaw controller modified to implement wake steering according to a yaw control strategy. The strategy was designed using NREL wind farm models, including a computational fluid dynamics model, SOWFA, for understanding wake dynamics and an engineering model, FLORIS, for yaw control optimization. Results indicate that, within the certainty afforded by the data, the wake-steering controller was successful in increasing power capture, by amounts similar to those predicted from the models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Early age volume changes in metakaolin geopolymers: Insights from molecular simulations and experiments

The early age volume changes occurring during the geopolymerisation reaction are not sufficiently understood yet, due to shortage of experimental data and theoretical models. This work presents new results on chemical and autogenous deformation of sodium-activated geopolymers from metakaolin, focussing on the first 72 h of reaction. The results show that the geopolymers undergo early-age chemical expansion, not shrinkage. A model is proposed to explain the experimental result, leveraging recent advances from molecular simulations. The model predicts how the extent of chemical expansion is controlled by confined water in the molecular structure of the geopolymer. However, despite this underlying chemical expansion, geopolymer samples undergo autogenous shrinkage at the macroscale, which excludes self-desiccation as the origin of autogenous deformation. A better insight is gained by monitoring the kinetics of geopolymerisation using isothermal and differential calorimetry. Two kinetic regimes are identified, with apparent activation energies of approximately 90 kJ/mol and 70 kJ/mol. This suggests that two microscopic mechanisms concur to determine the early-age volume changes of geopolymer pastes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗