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Polynomial Chaos Characterization of Uncertainty in Multiscale Models and Behavior of Carbon Reinforced Composites

Design of non-crimp fabric (NCF) composites entails major challenges pertaining to (1) the complex fine-scale morphology of the constituents, (2) the manufacturing-produced inconsistency of this morphology spatially, and thus (3) the ability to build reliable, robust, and efficient computational surrogate models to account for this complex nature. Traditional approaches to construct computational surrogate models have been to average over the fluctuations of the material properties at different scale lengths. This fails to account for the fine-scale features and fluctuations in morphology, material properties of the constituents, as well as fine-scale phenomena such as damage and cracks. In addition, it fails to accurately predict the scatter in macroscopic properties, which is vital to the design process and behavior prediction. In this work, funded in part by the Department of Energy, we present an approach for addressing these challenges by relying on polynomial chaos representations of both input parameters and material properties at different scales. Moreover, we emphasize the efficiency and robustness of integrating the polynomial chaos expansion with multiscale tools to perform multiscale assimilation, characterization, propagation, and prediction, all of which are necessary to construct the data-driven surrogate models required to design under the uncertainty of composites. These data-driven constructions provide an accurate map from parameters (and their uncertainties) at all scales and the system-level behavior relevant for design. While this perspective is quite general and applicable to all multiscale systems, NCF composites present a particular hierarchy of scales that permits the efficient implementation of these concepts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A perspective on Bayesian methods applied to materials discovery and design

For more than two decades, there has been increasing interest in developing frameworks for the accelerated discovery and design of novel materials that could enable promising and transformative technologies. The Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) program called for integrating computational tools to establish linkages along process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) chains. The Materials Genome Initiative called for integrating experiments and computations within data science frameworks as a strategy to accelerate the materials development cycle. While these frameworks and paradigms have been quite influential, traditional ICME or data science-based approaches tend to have some limitations, mainly when querying the materials space is costly and very little information is available. Bayesian methods are more suitable in this context due to their efficiency gains. To this end, the materials discovery problem is framed as a Bayesian Optimization (BO). Different examples in which BO has been applied to solve materials discovery problems are presented. The methods/examples discussed include BO under model uncertainty, multi-information source BO, multi-objective and multi-constraint BO, and batch BO. Bayesian Materials Discovery is a promising area of research that is likely to become more influential as more attention is put on autonomous materials discovery platforms. Therefore, a discussion is provided on the potential development of such methods to increase the ability of existing platforms in materials discovery. Here, the ultimate goal is to pave the way to autonomous materials discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards a data-driven model of hadronization using normalizing flows

We introduce a model of hadronization based on invertible neural networks that faithfully reproduces a simplified version of the Lund string model for meson hadronization. Additionally, we introduce a new training method for normalizing flows, termed MAGIC, that improves the agreement between simulated and experimental distributions of high-level (macroscopic) observables by adjusting single-emission (microscopic) dynamics. Our results constitute an important step toward realizing a machine-learning based model of hadronization that utilizes experimental data during training. Finally, we demonstrate how a Bayesian extension to this normalizing-flow architecture can be used to provide analysis of statistical and modeling uncertainties on the generated observable distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quarterly Technical Report, Fission Time Projection Chamber Project

Reactors, weapons and nucelosynthesis calculations are all dependent on nuclear physics for cross sections and particle kinematics. These applications are very sensitive to the nuclear physics in the fast neutron energy region and therefore have large overlaps in nuclear data needs. High performance computer codes interface the nuclear data through nuclear data libraries, which are a culmination of experimental results and nuclear theory and modeling. Uncertainties in the data contained in those libraries propagate into uncertainties in calculated performance parameters.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Data Management Technology Survey and Recommendation

The Data Management Plan (DMP) document already released describes the architecture and plan for developing the data management framework needed by the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) toolset. The CCSI toolset includes: experimental data, physical property methods and parameters, empirical correlations, validation data set, models, simulation inputs and outputs, reduced-order models, cost models, risk models, uncertainty estimation, etc. Each tool in the toolset requires and generates data, and the data management system organizes and stores the data. The data management framework will be driven by end-users and interact with CCSI workflow components such as Turbine. This document reports on the technology survey completed as the first step in the Data Management Plan. It also provides recommendations for a path forward based on the survey results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessment of Land Surface Model Performance in WRF for Simulating Wind at Heights Relevant to the Wind Energy Community

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to investigate the impact of land surface model (LSM) physics on the simulated surface energy balance and the near surface wind profile, including heights reached by a modern wind turbine. Simulations were made for a domain centered over the Department of Energy (DOE) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Central Facility in northern Oklahoma. High-resolution measurements of surface fluxes and profiles of wind speed, direction and turbulence were available for model validation. We tested 10 common LSM configurations in WRF including Noah, Noah-MP, SSiB, Pleim-Xiu, RUC, and others to evaluate (1) the accuracy of simulated surface energy fluxes, (2) the accuracy of forecasted rotor-disk height wind speeds, and (3) the sensitivity of rotor disk wind speed to the choice of LSM. WRF was run for four, two-week periods covering different canopy, surface meteorology and soil moisture conditions. LSM performances varied by simulation period and errors were greatest during periods with high soil moisture and live crop cover, indicating highest LSM sensitivity when PBL behavior is most coupled to land-atmosphere exchange. Higher wind speed errors also occurred at night during the spring, possibly from the difficulty with simulating nocturnal low-level jets. We found that choice of land surface model led to a ~10% improvement in simulating hub-height wind speed. Errors in wind shear were also sensitive to the choice of LSM. Overall the best performing models were Noah and Noah-MP. The variability of LSM performance across different soil moisture and vegetation canopy conditions suggests LSM representation of surface energy exchange processes in WRF remains a large source of model uncertainty. Furthermore, our results indicate the choice of LSM impacts simulated wind fields in WRF at heights relevant to the wind industry, at least for the Southern Great Plains region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

TRL Computer System User’s Guide

We have developed a wiki-based graphical user-interface system that implements our technology readiness level (TRL) uncertainty models. This document contains the instructions for using this wiki-based system.

Engel, David W.↗

An Initial Evaluation of Siting Considerations on Current and Future Wind Deployment

This report provides a deeper understanding of the wind project development process, from desktop studies to a successful project in the ground. It examines three siting consideration categories that wind project sponsors must include in the development process: wildlife (species that live in, near, or migrate through the area where wind development is possible), radar (wind turbines can cause interference with radar signals), and public engagement (representing communities and stakeholders who live near wind power projects). The research shows that although this country's abundant wind resource provides numerous options for addressing siting considerations, actually siting individual projects is becoming more difficult because of regulatory and other uncertainties. Model results are based on the premise that developers will be able to site, permit, and build successful projects, which is not always the case in reality.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Risks to Ecological Receptors Posed by Contaminants of Potential Concern in the Lower Three Runs Cooling Ponds and Canals

The upper portion of Lower Three Runs includes several ponds, reservoirs, and canals that were formerly used as a cooling system for nuclear production reactors. This area was divided into nine exposure areas (EAs) for the assessment of environmental contamination resulting from past reactor operations and other industrial processes. A tiered screening process identified several contaminants of potential concern including aluminum, cyanide, lead, manganese, mercury, DDD, DDE, and DDT. Risks posed by these contaminants to ecological receptors (river otter, belted kingfisher, raccoon, and blue heron) were assessed using contaminant exposure models that estimated contaminant intake resulting from ingestion of food, water, and sediment/ soil and compared these intakes with toxicity reference values (TRVs). The contaminant exposure models showed that the TRVs were not exceeded in the otter model, exceeded by aluminum in EA 7 (Pond 2 and associated canals) in the raccoon model, and exceeded by mercury in EAs 2, 3 (Pond B), 6 (Par Pond), and 8 (Ponds 4 and 5 and Canal to Pond C) in both the kingfisher and blue heron models. Hazard quotients (total exposure dose divided by the TRV) were 2.8 for aluminum and 1.7- 3.6 for mercury. The primary route of exposure for aluminum was the ingestion of soil, and the primary route of exposure for mercury was the ingestion of mercury contaminated fish. Elevated levels of mercury in fish were at least partly the result of the aerial deposition of mercury onto Lower Three Runs and its watershed. The atmospheric deposition of mercury creates pervasive contamination in fish throughout the Savannah River basin. Another possible source of mercury was the discharge of mercury contaminated Savannah River water into the Lower Three Runs cooling ponds and canals during previous years of reactor operation. This contamination originated from industries located upstream of the SRS. The aluminum exceedance for the raccoon was likely the result of naturally high aluminum levels in SRS soils rather than SRS operations. Aluminum exceedances have previously been observed in relatively undisturbed background locations as well as areas affected by SRS operations. Aluminum exceedances are more likely with the raccoon than the other receptors because it consumes more soil as a result of its feeding habits. Sensitivity analysis showed that model uncertainty can be reduced by adequate sampling of key variables (e.g., fish and sediments). Although sediment samples were collected from all EAs, fish samples were not collected from three EAs and some analytes (pesticides and cyanide) were not measured in fish. Water-to-fish concentration ratios were used to estimate contaminant levels in fish when direct measurements from fish were unavailable; however, such estimates are potentially less accurate than direct measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of a Neutrino-Induced Charged Current Single Neutral Pion Cross Section at MicroBooNE

Micro Booster Neutrino Experiment (MicroBooNE) is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) operating in the Booster Neutrino Beamline at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. MicroBooNE's physics goals include studying short basline $\nu$ oscillation and performing a suite of low energy $\nu$ cross section measurements. Of particular interest to MicroBooNE, and the broader LArTPC community, are electromagnetic showers; these showers are at the heart of searches for charged current $\nu_e$ interactions, including MicroBooNE's flagship search for a MiniBooNE-like low energy excess (LEE). Neutral current $\pi^0$'s, which decay into 2 electromagnetic showers ($\gamma$'s), are the dominant source of non-$\nu_e$ backgrounds in searches for $\nu_{\mu}\rightarrow\nu_e$ oscillations in LArTPCs, such as the LEE. While precise measurements of this neutral current channel will provide a tight constraint on our modeling uncertainties, such events are particularly difficult to iden tify in data with our current tools, as there is often little or no activity at the neutrino interaction point. Charged current interactions, on the other hand, have simpler topologies with a long $\mu$ track that anchors to the interaction vertex. With a vertex in hand, we can develop automated reconstruction tools for neutrino-induced shower topologies (like the $\gamma$'s from $\pi^0$ decay). Thus, in studying charged current $\pi^0$ interactions, we are developing tools that can potentially be used to reconstruct an important LEE background, while also studying the physics of neutrino interactions, of which data is sparse for argon. This thesis reports the world's first measurement of the absolute, flux-averaged cross section of $\nu_{\mu}$-charged current single $\pi^0$ production on argon. The analysis chain begins with the selection of inclusive $\nu_\mu$ charged current events, where a candidate $\mu$ and neutrino interaction vertex are identified. These events are t hen passed to a reconstruction framework where electromagnet! ic shower candidates are reconstructed using computer visualization tools. Finally, the cross section is calculated on two reconstructed topologies: those with at least two reconstructed showers and those with at least one. Additionally, this work describes the first fully-automated electromagnetic shower reconstruction process employed by a LArTPC to perform a cross section analysis. We measure the flux averaged cross section on argon at 824 MeV via the two and one shower selections respectively to be \par \noindent $\sigma_{\geq2 Shower}$ = (2.56 $\pm$ $0.50_{stat}$ $\pm$ $0.31_{genie}$ $\pm$ $0.37_{flux}$ $\pm$ $0.31_{det}$) $\times$ $10^{-38}$ $\frac{cm^2}{Ar}$, \par \noindent $\sigma_{\geq 1 Shower}$ = (2.64 $\pm$ $0.33_{stat}$ $\pm$ $0.36_{genie}$ $\pm$ $0.38_{flux}$ $\pm$ $0.35_{det}$) $\times$ $10^{-38}$ $\frac{cm^2}{Ar}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Embedded Sensors and Controls to Improve Component Performance and Reliability - Final Report

Oak Ridge National Laboratory has researched embedded instrumentation and controls (I&C) for extreme environments under the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy's Nuclear Energy Enabling Technology program. Advanced sensors and controls have the potential to dramatically increase the performance and efficiency of nuclear reactor components, however, the extreme environments of exiting and advanced reactor designs limit the options for sensors, actuators, and control designs. To address two of the extreme environment challenges to embedded I&C, the focus of this research is to fill technology gaps needed for electromagnetic systems that can operate at temperatures greater than 700 C in corrosive environments. A magnetically suspended, canned-rotor pump was chosen for the embedded I&C development platform because it is a system with a practical need in industry and because the sensors, actuators, and embedded I&C technologies needed to successfully build this platform will be widely applicable to any high-temperature components that utilize electromagnetic interactions. This design also eliminates the need for pump seals and mechanical bearings which are the main sources of pump failures and maintenance costs. During the project a conceptual design for the high-temperature magnetically suspended pump was developed and analyzed for manufacturability and reliability. Specifications for the materials, control system, sensors, mechanical performance, high-temperature wiring, and electromagnetic properties were developed for the conceptual design. The canned rotor design of the high-temperature pump presents unique fluid force characteristics arising from the thin fluid channel between the rotor and stator. A model of the fluid forces was developed and the impact of these forces on the stability and performance of magnetic bearing controllers was studied. Then a room temperature bench-scale magnetic testbed was designed and fabricated for testing the performance of sensors and electromagnetic actuators, modern control design techniques, closed-loop system identification, state estimation, and model uncertainty. Finally, a loop-scale testbed with submerged magnetic bearings was designed and fabricated. This testbed will be used to analyze the stability and performance of control system designs in response to the nonlinear and cross-coupling fluid effects between the shaft axes of motion, rotordynamics, gyroscopic effects, and impeller disturbances.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Final Project Report: PV Stakeholder Engagement Initiatives

The key objectives of this project were to increase meaningful stakeholder engagement in photovoltaic performance modeling and reliability areas. We did this by hosting six workshop over the past three years, giving conference and workshop presentations and contributing to technical standards committees. Our efforts have made positive contributions by increasing the sharing of information and best practices and by creating and sustaining a technical community in PV Performance Modeling. This community has worked together over the past three years and has improved its practice and decreased performance modeling uncertainties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advanced Model Developments in SAM for Thermal Stratification Analysis during Reactor Transients

Mixing, thermal-stratification, and mass transport phenomena in large pools or enclosures play major roles for the safety of reactor systems. Depending on the fidelity requirement and computational resources, various modeling methods, from the 0-D perfect mixing model to 3-D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models, are available. Each is associated with its own advantages and shortcomings. It is very desirable to develop an advanced and efficient thermal mixing and stratification modeling capability embedded in a modern system analysis code to improve the accuracy of reactor safety analyses and to reduce modeling uncertainties.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Integrated FHR technology development: Tritium management, materials testing, salt chemistry control, thermal hydraulics and neutronics, associated benchmarking and commercial basis

This report summarizes the results of a 3-year Integrated Research Project (IRP) sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to address major technical challenges in the development of the Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR). The IRP universities included the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), the University of California at Berkeley (UCB), the University of Wisconsin (UW), and the University of New Mexico (UNM). The FHR is a new reactor concept less than 20 years old that combines (1) a clean fluoride salt coolant, (2) the graphite-matrix coated-particle fuel originally developed for High- Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors and (3) passive decay heat removal systems from sodium fast reactors. The base-line design is a pebble-bed FHR that delivers heat between 600 to 700°C with a 7 Li 2 BeF 4 (flibe) salt coolant to the power cycle or industrial users. The Executive Summary describes what was accomplished and summarizes major conclusions. The main report contains stand-alone sections in each major area of work. Highlights are summarized below. Tritium. The coolant salt produces tritium necessitating understanding and control of tritium. Experimental work included measuring hydrogen uptake on carbon, tritium uptake during irradiation of graphite in 700°C salt and the permeability of tritium through metals with and without coatings. An FHR systems model was developed to predict tritium behavior and enable design of tritium control systems. The leading candidate for tritium removal from the flibe salt is carbon bed outside the reactor core. Thermal hydraulics and Neutronics. A 10-meter high FHR integral effects test facility, using Dowtherm A®, has been built and used to simulate the integral response of a representative FHR to improve understanding of FHR thermal hydraulics and validate thermal hydraulics codes used for the FHR. Neutronic analysis included code-to-code benchmarking, multiphysics modeling, uncertainty analysis for nuclear data uncertainties and shielding analysis. Twisted-tube heat exchangers were examined that may provide significant cost reductions because of their improved heat-transfer performance with liquid salts. The impacts on safety and design caused by uncertainties in physical properties of the salt were assessed with recommendations on where added physical property measurements are needed. Work began on understanding radiative heat transfer that becomes important in salt systems at higher temperatures. Materials. Static corrosion tests were conducted on graphite and materials in 700°C salt -- both in the UW laboratory and in the MIT reactor. In addition to static corrosion testing, a circulating salt corrosion loop was built and is operating. Methods to measure salt properties including redox were developed. The presence of carbon increases corrosion. With good redox control, the evidence indicates stainless steel can be used as a material of construction. Benchmarking. An additional series of workshops where held to enable benchmarking and comparison of results between different investigators. Commercialization. The FHR delivers higher average-temperature (~650°C) heat to the power cycle or industry than other reactors. This enables power cycles with lower-cost heat storage for variable electricity to the grid while the reactor operates at base-load -- providing a major competitive advantage by maximizing revenue from electricity sales. In October, 2016, a new startup company named Kairos Power was formed, and opened its first office in Jack London Square, Oakland, California, in January 2017. Kairos Power exists largely due to the work that was accomplished by this IRP and the previous DOE-funded FHR IRP that performed research on FHR technology from 2012 to 2015. In September, 2018, as this IRP is concluding, Kairos Power was staffed at 60 full time employees, working to develop technology derived from this IRP. Many of these employees worked with the IRP before joining Kairos Power 1 (https://kairospower.com). Other students and researchers from this IRP have joined other startup companies, including the Terrapower Molten Chloride Fast Reactor and the Terrestrial Energy development efforts.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Terry Turbopump Analytical Modeling Efforts in Fiscal Year 2017 (Progress Report)

This document details the computational fluid dynamic and system-level modeling, including a mechanistic representation of a turbine/pump, for Fukushima Daiichi Unit 2. Until this recent effort, mechanistic modeling had been confined to an otherwise coarse model of Fukushima Daiichi Unit 2 laden with manipulations of boundary conditions that substituted for detailed representations of the reactor, drywell, and wetwell. This work has provided insights in modeling uncertainties and provides confirmation for experimental efforts for the Terry turbopump.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Non-Destructive Imaging of a Liquid Moving Through Porous Media Using a Computer Tomography Scanner

The most common approach used by modelers to describe movement of liquids through a porous solid, such as cement, sediment, or glass, is to assume a uniform flow rate, such as a Darcy Flux or a diffusion constant. However, this convenient simplification is problematic because in many cases it ignors the presence of fractures and macropores, which commonly dominate water flow and contaminant transport. For this reason, it is common that such modeling results do not reflect the multi-modal flow detected in laboratory and field studies. The objective of this seedling study was to develop a new capability for SRNL to track liquid moving through micro- (matrix-) and macro-flow using an X-ray Computed Topography (CT) Scanner. 4-dimensional anamated renditions were created that permited quantifying traditional matrix flow and macropore flow. These animations were modelled using a public domain software, HYDRUS 1-D, describing one dimension, dual-porosity and dual-permeability processes. This new capability provides a proof of concept for reducing model uncertainty applicable to waste disposal risk calculations, environmental remediation, and waste form development when describing the movement of liquids as they pass through glass, cement, fractured rock, or soil.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Dispersion Validation for Flow Involving a Large Structure Revisited: 45 Degree Rotation

The atmospheric dispersion of contaminants in the wake of a large urban structure is a challenging fluid mechanics problem of interest to the scientific and engineering communities. Magnetic Resonance Velocimetry (MRV) and Magnetic Resonance Concentration (MRC) are relatively new techniques that leverage diagnostic equipment used primarily by the medical field to make 3D engineering measurements of flow and contaminant dispersal. SIERRA/Fuego, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code at Sandia National Labs is employed to make detailed comparisons to the dataset to evaluate the quantitative and qualitative accuracy of the model. This work is the second in a series of scenarios. In the prior work, a single large building in an array of similar buildings was considered with the wind perpendicular to a building face. In this work, the geometry is rotated by 45 degrees and improved studies are performed for simulation credibility. The comparison exercise shows conditionally good comparisons between the model and experiment. Model uncertainties are assessed through parametric variations. Various methods of quantifying the accuracy between experiments and data are examined Three-dimensional analysis of accuracy is performed. The effort helped identify deficiencies in the techniques used to make these comparisons, and further methods development therefore becomes one of the main recommendations for follow-on work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Terry Turbopump Analytical Modeling Efforts in Fiscal Year 2018. Progress Report

This document details the computational fluid dynamic and system-level modeling, including a mechanistic representation of a Terry turbopump. Until this recent effort, data and modeling results show that a Terry turbine, flowing air (or steam) at a certain rate, can develop the same power at two very different speeds, and has large implications with respect to understanding how a boiling water reactor's reactor core isolation cooling system or a pressurized water reactor turbine driven auxiliary feedwater system would respond to a loss of electrical power for Terry turbine speed governing. This work has provided insights in modeling uncertainties and provides confirmation for experimental efforts for the Terry turbopump expanded operating band being conducted at Texas A&M University.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗