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Glass Property-Composition Models for Support of Hanford WTP LAW Facility Operation

Current plans for the River Protection Project envision starting to vitrifying low-activity waste (LAW) by 2023 using a Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) approach and subsequently using a full-pretreatment approach. The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) LAW Facility will be operated and controlled using a LAW glass formulation algorithm (GFA), which requires several inputs based on research and development results. LAW glass property-composition models for several product quality and processing properties are key inputs for the LAW GFA. It is envisioned that the preliminary LAW GFA discussed by Kim and Vienna (2012) will be used for commissioning and initial radioactive operations of the WTP LAW Facility under Bechtel National, Inc. using the DFLAW approach. Then, an updated LAW GFA will be developed for implementation by the WTP operating contractor that takes over after WTP LAW Facility commissioning. This report documents the enhanced LAW glass property-composition models developed for use in the updated LAW GFA. The properties for which models were developed include Product Consistency Test (PCT) response, Vapor Hydration Test (VHT) response, viscosity at 1150 °C, electrical conductivity at 1150 °C, melter SO 3 tolerance at 1150 °C, and K-3 refractory corrosion at 1208 °C. Table S.1 lists the tables in this report that contain the recommended models for each of these properties. The model types recommended include partial quadratic mixture (PQM) models for viscosity, electrical conductivity, melter SO 3 tolerance and K-3 corrosion, bias corrected PQM model (bcPQM) for PCT, and logistic PQM model for VHT. The fits of model and validation subsets were found to be well predicted by the recommended models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Glass Property-Composition Models for Support of Hanford WTP LAW Facility Operation

Current plans for the River Protection Project envision starting to vitrifying low-activity waste (LAW) by 2023 using a Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) approach and subsequently using a full-pretreatment approach. The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) LAW Facility will be operated and controlled using a LAW glass formulation algorithm (GFA), which requires several inputs based on research and development results. LAW glass property-composition models for several product quality and processing properties are key inputs for the LAW GFA. It is envisioned that the preliminary LAW GFA discussed by Kim and Vienna (2012) will be used for commissioning and initial radioactive operations of the WTP LAW Facility under Bechtel National, Inc. using the DFLAW approach. Then, an updated LAW GFA will be developed for implementation by the WTP operating contractor that takes over after WTP LAW Facility commissioning. This report documents the enhanced LAW glass property-composition models developed for use in the updated LAW GFA. The properties for which models were developed include Product Consistency Test (PCT) response, Vapor Hydration Test (VHT) response, viscosity at 1150 °C, electrical conductivity at 1150 °C, melter SO3 tolerance at 1150 °C, and K-3 refractory corrosion at 1208 °C. Table S.1 lists the tables in this report that contain the recommended models for each of these properties. The model types recommended include partial quadratic mixture (PQM) models for viscosity, electrical conductivity, melter SO 3 tolerance and K-3 corrosion, bias corrected PQM model (bcPQM) for PCT, and logistic PQM model for VHT. The fits of model and validation subsets were found to be well predicted by the recommended models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Investigation of the Relationship Between Gross Tumor Volume Location and Pneumonitis Rates Using a Large Clinical Database of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Purpose: Studies have suggested that function may vary throughout the lung, and that patients who have tumors located in the base of the lung are more susceptible to radiation pneumonitis. The purpose of our study was to investigate the relationship between gross tumor volume (GTV) location and pneumonitis rates using a large clinical database of 547 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer. Methods and Materials: The GTV centroids of all patients were mapped onto one common coordinate system, in which the boundaries of the coordinate system were defined by the extreme points of each individual patient lung. The data were qualitatively analyzed by graphing all centroids and displaying the data according to the presence of severe pneumonitis, tumor stage, and smoking status. The centroids were grouped according to superior-inferior segments, and the pneumonitis rates were analyzed. In addition, we incorporated the GTV centroid information into a Lyman-Kutcher-Burman normal tissue complication probability model and tested whether adding spatial information significantly improved the fit of the model. Results: Of the 547 patients analyzed, 111 (20.3%) experienced severe radiation pneumonitis. The pneumonitis incidence rates were 16%, 23%, and 21% for the superior, middle, and inferior thirds of the lung, respectively. Qualitatively, the GTV centroids of nonsmokers were notably absent from the superior portion of the lung. In addition, the GTV centroids of patients who had Stage III and IV clinical staging were concentrated toward the medial edge of the lung. The comparison between the GTV centroid model and the conventional dose-volume model did not yield a statistically significant difference in model fit. Conclusions: Lower pneumonitis rates were noted for the superior portion of the lung; however the differences were not statistically significant. For our patient cohort, incorporating GTV centroid information did not lead to a statistically significant improvement in the fit of the pneumonitis model.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. IV. Variability, Morphology, and Black Hole Mass

In this paper we quantify the temporal variability and image morphology of the horizon-scale emission from Sgr A*, as observed by the EHT in 2017 April at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. We find that the Sgr A* data exhibit variability that exceeds what can be explained by the uncertainties in the data or by the effects of interstellar scattering. The magnitude of this variability can be a substantial fraction of the correlated flux density, reaching ~100% on some baselines. Through an exploration of simple geometric source models, we demonstrate that ring-like morphologies provide better fits to the Sgr A* data than do other morphologies with comparable complexity. We develop two strategies for fitting static geometric ring models to the time-variable Sgr A* data; one strategy fits models to short segments of data over which the source is static and averages these independent fits, while the other fits models to the full data set using a parametric model for the structural variability power spectrum around the average source structure. Both geometric modeling and image-domain feature extraction techniques determine the ring diameter to be 51.8 ± 2.3 μas (68% credible intervals), with the ring thickness constrained to have an FWHM between ~30% and 50% of the ring diameter. To bring the diameter measurements to a common physical scale, we calibrate them using synthetic data generated from GRMHD simulations. This calibration constrains the angular size of the gravitational radius to be ${4.8}_{-0.7}^{+1.4}$ μas, which we combine with an independent distance measurement from maser parallaxes to determine the mass of Sgr A* to be ${4.0}_{-0.6}^{+1.1}\times {10}^{6}$ M⊙.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DES14X3taz: A TYPE I SUPERLUMINOUS SUPERNOVA SHOWING A LUMINOUS, RAPIDLY COOLING INITIAL PRE-PEAK BUMP

We present DES14X3taz, a new hydrogen-poor superluminous supernova (SLSN-I) discovered by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) supernova program, with additional photometric data provided by the Survey Using DECam for Superluminous Supernovae. Spectra obtained using Optical System for Imaging and low-Intermediate-Resolution Integrated Spectroscopy on the Gran Telescopio CANARIAS show DES14X3taz is an SLSN-I at z = 0.608. Multi-color photometry reveals a double-peaked light curve: a blue and relatively bright initial peak that fades rapidly prior to the slower rise of the main light curve. Our multi-color photometry allows us, for the first time, to show that the initial peak cools from 22,000 to 8000 K over 15 rest-frame days, and is faster and brighter than any published core-collapse supernova, reaching 30% of the bolometric luminosity of the main peak. No physical Ni-56-powered model can fit this initial peak. We show that a shock-cooling model followed by a magnetar driving the second phase of the light curve can adequately explain the entire light curve of DES14X3taz. Models involving the shock-cooling of extended circumstellar material at a distance of similar or equal to 400 R-circle dot are preferred over the cooling of shock-heated surface layers of a stellar envelope. We compare DES14X3taz to the few double-peaked SLSN-I events in the literature. Although the rise. times and characteristics of these initial peaks differ, there exists the tantalizing possibility that they can be explained by one physical interpretation

general↗

Evaluation of Deep Subsurface Resistivity Imaging for Hydrofracture Monitoring

This report describes the results of the first of its kind monitoring of a hydrofracture operation with electromagnetic measurements. The researchers teamed with oil and gas producer Encana Corporation to design and execute a borehole to surface monitoring of three fracture stages at a well pad in central Colorado. The field project consisted of an equipment upgrade, a survey design and modeling phase, several weeks of data collection, and data processing and interpretation. Existing Depth to Surface Resistivity (DSR) instrumentation was upgraded to allow for continuous high precision recording from downhole sources. The full system can now collect data continuously for up to 72 hours, which is sufficient to measure data for 10 frac stages. Next we used numerical modeling and frac treatment data supplied by Encana to design a field survey to detect EM signal from induced fractures. Prior to modeling we developed a novel technique for using well casing as an antenna for a downhole source. Modeling shows that 1) a measurable response for an induced fracture could be achieved if the facture fluid was of high salinity 2) an optimum fracture response is created when the primary source field is parallel to the well casing but perpendicular to the fracture direction. In mid-July, 2014 we installed an array of more than 100 surface sensors, distributed above the treatment wells and extending for approximately 1 km north and 750 m eastward. We applied a 0.6 Hz square wave signal to a downhole current electrode located in a horizontal well 200 m offset from the treatment well with a return electrode on the surface. The data were transmitted to a recording trailer via Wi-Fi where we monitored receiver and transmitter channels continuously in a 72-hour period which covered 7 frac stages, three of which were high salinity. Although the background conditions were very noisy we were able to extract a clear signal from the high salinity stages. Initial data interpretation attempts consisting of trying to directly invert collected data using a simple background starting model did not produce reasonable models. We next used a simulated data set to develop a constrained inversion workflow that places the downhole fracture in the correct location. Finally, we used a combination of forward and inverse models to fit the collected data to a model that incorporated 3 frac stages. This project provided a first-of-its-kind application of EM technology to map an induced fracture. The results demonstrated a clear anomaly during the operation that can be fit to a reasonable model of an induced fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

eXtremeMAT: Uncertainty Quantification of the LApx Model

Presentation on the uncertainty quantification efforts to parameterize and fit the LApx model for ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels. These workflows support ease of adoption of the code to new materials and enable rapid model fitting and understanding of the level of confidence in predictions.

mechanical properties↗

Torsion cosmology of Poincaré gauge theory and the constraints of its parameters via SNeIa data

Poincarè gauge theory (PGT) is an alternative gravity theory, which brings the gravity into the gauge-theoretic framework, where the Lagrangian includes both quadratic torsion and curvature terms. Recently, the cosmological models with torsion based on this theory, which explained the cosmic acceleration in a new way, have received much attention. Among these PGT cosmological models, the one with only even parity dynamical modes-SNY model, for its realistic meaning, is very attractive. In this paper, we first analyze the past-time cosmic evolution of SNY model analytically. And based on these results we fit this model to the most comprehensive SNeIa data (Union 2) and thus find the best-fit values of model parameters and initial conditions, whose related χ{sup 2} value is consistent with the one from ΛCMD at the 1σ level. Also by the χ{sup 2} estimate, we provide certain constraints on these parameters. Using these best-fit values for the Union 2 SNeIa dataset, we are able to predict the evolution of our real universe in late time. From this prediction, we know that the fate of our universe is that it would expand forever, slowly asymptotically to a halt, which is in accordance with the earlier works.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An analysis of parameter compression and Full-Modeling techniques with Velocileptors for DESI 2024 and beyond

In anticipation of forthcoming data releases of current and future spectroscopic surveys, we present the validation tests and analysis of systematic effects within velocileptors modeling pipeline when fitting mock data from the AbacusSummit N-body simulations. We compare the constraints obtained from parameter compression methods to the direct fitting (Full-Modeling) approaches of modeling the galaxy power spectra, and show that the ShapeFit extension to the traditional template method is consistent with the Full-Modeling method within the standard ΛCDM parameter space. We show the dependence on scale cuts when fitting the different redshift bins using the ShapeFit and Full-Modeling methods. We test the ability to jointly fit data from multiple redshift bins as well as joint analysis of the pre-reconstruction power spectrum with the post-reconstruction BAO correlation function signal. We further demonstrate the behavior of the model when opening up the parameter space beyond ΛCDM and also when combining likelihoods with external datasets, namely the Planck CMB priors. Finally, we describe different parametrization options for the galaxy bias, counterterm, and stochastic parameters, and employ the halo model in order to physically motivate suitable priors that are necessary to ensure the stability of the perturbation theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Sensitivity of modelled passive margin stratigraphy to variations in sea level, sediment supply and subsidence

Abstract We produced a 10 Myr synthetic stratigraphic section using a forward stratigraphic model that generates marine deltaic stratigraphy over geological timescales. We recursively fit the model using a Bayesian inversion algorithm to test: (1) if it could be accurately reconstructed; (2) if the parameters used to create it could be recovered; and (3) the sensitivity of the model output to given model parameters and the attendant physical processes. The original synthetic stratigraphic section was produced with cyclical sea‐level variations of 40 and 30 m with 2.4 and 10 Myr periods respectively. Sediment was also supplied cyclically, in 2.4 and 10 Myr cycles with amplitudes of 30 and 80 tons/100 kyr, respectively, varying from a mean of 232 tons/100 kyr. Parameter values were sampled to fit the model using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, resulting in a ±5 m (1σ) variation between the experimental output and the original. Sea level varied by ±7 m (1σ) within the posterior distribution of parameters. As a result, both the 10 Myr and 2.4 Myr sea‐level cycles could be extracted from the original output. The variation in sediment supply was approximately ±38 tons/100 kyr (1σ) and, as a result, only the larger long‐term supply variations could be accurately recovered in refitting the model. The variation in thermal, flexural and total subsidence across those parameter sets is less than ±10 m (1σ). The original section experienced 150 m of total subsidence at the depocentre. Our results demonstrate the distinct and interpretable imprint of sea level and subsidence on continental margin stratigraphy can be quantified. Moreover, we conclude that sea‐level change produces a defined effect on the geometries of stratigraphic architecture, and that techniques applied for the purpose of delineating sea‐level variation from continental margin strata have a well‐founded conceptual basis.

Schmelz, William J.↗

Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of parameter values. We suggest 'consensus' parameter values for military and civilian populations in the form of normal distributions so that they may be further used in other applications. Representing the parameter values as distributions, instead of point values, allows us to capture the uncertainty and scatter in the parameters. Quantifying the uncertainty allows us to use these models further in inverse problems, predictions under uncertainty and various other studies involving risk.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A kinetic study of the fast micro-pyrolysis of hybrid poplar

Here, hybrid poplar from the clone DN34 was studied to determine the rate of production of bio-oil species with respect to time during the fast pyrolysis process. 300–660 ug samples were pyrolyzed using a micropyrolzer at 500 °C at very high heating rates and very short vapor residence times. Individual poplar samples were run in triplicate at discrete time points ranging from 1 to 20 s in the micropyrolzer. Several bio-oil compounds from each individual sample were analyzed using GC/MS. Select bio-oil compounds, derived from the hemicellulose, cellulose, and lignin fractions of the wood, were used to determine their rates of production from thermal degradation of the biomass. These rates were quantified using standards to determine the weight percent relative to the original raw biomass with respect to time. Pyrolysis kinetic reaction models were fit to this experimental data in order to determine suitability of each model. A first order exponential decay model for degradation of the solid biomass was fit against the data along with a six-step consecutive degradation model previously developed by our group. The experimental data suggests that compounds derived from the hemicellulose are produced at faster rates than that of the lignin or cellulose fractions of the wood, consistent with prior data from thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). When applying the first order exponential decay model, the reaction rates calculated did prove that holocellulose compounds reaction rates were approximately twice that of the lignin compounds reaction rate but did not provide the best fit. The six-step degradation model provided a better fit to all of the biooil compounds and char data, and the stoichiometric parameters derived from the model fit showed that the first three reactions involved mostly the hemicellulose derived compounds while reaction steps 4–6 released cellulose- and lignin-derived compounds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Constrained curve fitting for semi-parametric models with radial basis function networks

Common to many analysis pipelines in lattice gauge theory and the broader scientific discipline is the need to fit a semi-parametric model to data. We propose a fit method that utilizes a radial basis function network to approximate the non-parametric component of such models. The approximate parametric model is fit to data using the basin hopping global optimization algorithm. Parameter constraints are enforced through Gaussian priors. The viability of our method is tested by examining its use in a finite-size scaling analysis of the $q$-state Potts model and $p$-state clock model with $q=2,3$ and $p=4,\infty$.

Peterson, Curtis T.↗

Characterization of Physically and Chemically Separated Athabasca Asphaltenes Using Small-Angle X-ray Scattering

Athabasca asphaltenes were characterized using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). Two methods were used to separate asphaltenes from the Athabasca bitumen: namely, chemical separation by precipitation with n-pentane and physical separation by nanofiltration using a zirconia membrane with a 20 nm average pore size. The permeate and chemically separated samples were diluted in 1-methylnaphtalene and n-dodecane prior to SAXS measurements. The temperature and asphaltene concentration ranges were 50-310 C and 1-10.4 wt %, respectively. Model-independent analysis of SAXS data provided the radius of gyration and the scattering coefficients. Model-dependent fits provided size distributions for asphaltenes assuming that they are dense and spherical. Model-independent analysis for physically and chemically separated asphaltenes showed significant differences in nominal size and structure, and the temperature dependence of structural properties. The results challenge the merits of using chemically separated asphaltene properties as a basis for asphaltene property prediction in hydrocarbon resources. While the residuals for model-dependent fits are small, the results are inconsistent with the structural parameters obtained from model-independent analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nonparametric test of consistency between cosmological models and multiband CMB measurements

We present a novel approach to test the consistency of the cosmological models with multiband CMB data using a nonparametric approach. In our analysis we calibrate the REACT (Risk Estimation and Adaptation after Coordinate Transformation) confidence levels associated with distances in function space (confidence distances) based on the Monte Carlo simulations in order to test the consistency of an assumed cosmological model with observation. To show the applicability of our algorithm, we confront Planck 2013 temperature data with concordance model of cosmology considering two different Planck spectra combination. In order to have an accurate quantitative statistical measure to compare between the data and the theoretical expectations, we calibrate REACT confidence distances and perform a bias control using many realizations of the data. Our results in this work using Planck 2013 temperature data put the best fit ΛCDM model at 95% (∼ 2σ) confidence distance from the center of the nonparametric confidence set while repeating the analysis excluding the Planck 217 × 217 GHz spectrum data, the best fit ΛCDM model shifts to 70% (∼ 1σ) confidence distance. The most prominent features in the data deviating from the best fit ΛCDM model seems to be at low multipoles 18 < ℓ < 26 at greater than 2σ, ℓ ∼ 750 at ∼1 to 2σ and ℓ ∼ 1800 at greater than 2σ level. Excluding the 217×217 GHz spectrum the feature at ℓ ∼ 1800 becomes substantially less significance at ∼1 to 2σ confidence level. Results of our analysis based on the new approach we propose in this work are in agreement with other analysis done using alternative methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Is Radioactive Tank Waste a Bingham Fluid?

Slurries and sludges across the United States Department of Energy (DOE) complex rank among the most rheologically interesting. Their composition is heterogeneous, spanning a very broad range of particle sizes, densities, and interparticle forces. All exhibit shear thinning, some have yield stresses, and many are thixotropic. Despite the variety, these complex fluids are often represented using the historic Bingham fluid model, which fits higher shear rate data to a simple straight line. The intercept provides a yield stress, which has been a key design parameter in construction of large-scale waste processing facilities. However, many radioactive wastes are simply not Bingham fluids, which extrapolate but poorly across low to intermediate shear rates that are characteristic of typical processing conditions. Indeed, processing shear rates as high as 200 1/s, which has been a typical minimum shear rate used in fitting, are seldom encountered in nuclear waste processing. Therefore, more realistic rheological models are necessary to accurately predict waste processing performance. PNNL recently re-evaluated the rheology of reconstituted Hanford REDOX sludge waste against a wide variety of rheological models including the Bingham, Cross, Cross with yield stress, Carreau, biviscous, Herschel-Bulkley (which includes a power law dependence), Casson, and Gay models. They found that all of the models provided a closer fit than the Bingham model and that the biviscous model and Cross with yield stress model were convincing. However, reconstituted Hanford REDOX sludge waste is but one type of DOE waste and a direct contrast and comparison of these three models against undiluted, unmixed tank waste (actual not simulant) has not been performed previously. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the rheology of actual tank waste with these more accurate rheological models. In this paper, we evaluate select rheological data for slurry samples from Hanford’s AZ-101, AZ-102, and SY-101 waste tanks. In each of these cases, we find that Cross’ model with yield stress and the biviscous model significantly outperform the Bingham fluid model. Furthermore, the AZ-101 data also shows that the shear stress peak that startup significantly exceeds the Bingham yield stress, which is commonly observed in the incipient moments of rheological measurements on simulants. In contrast, Cross’ model may empirically accommodate an initial spike in shear stress at modest shear rates. These are important observations because computational and analytical fluid dynamics simulations rely on rheological constitutive models for accurately and conservatively predict waste processing performance. These findings suggest the need for better rheological modeling of and validation against radioactive waste.

Rheology, Radioactive Waste↗

On spectral line shifts from analytic fits to the ion-sphere model potential

A simplification of a fit to the ion-sphere model potential that provides analytic level shifts [X. Li & F.B. Rosmej, EPL 99, 33001(2012)] is shown to have an inconsistency. On the other hand, the original fit [F.B. Rosmej et al., Phys. Rev. A84, 032512(2011)] not only avoids the problem but also leads to an overlooked analytic formula for level shifts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Thermal Contact Conductance Modeling

Elastic, plastic and elastic-plastic thermal conductance models were run for Al-6061 and SS-304, respectively. Thermal conductance models were compared to experimental data of samples being pressed together as a function of contact pressure. For SS-304, Elastic and Plastic models did not fit the experimental data well. The Elastic-Plastic model fit the data well and it was shown that surface roughness did not play a major role. For Al-6061, the Elastic model worked best and the models strongly suggested that surface roughness Al plays an important role in how well a thermal conductance model can predict conductance through two pieces of Al in contact with one another.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗