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Quantifying shifts in natural selection on codon usage between protein regions: a population genetics approach

Codon usage bias (CUB), the non-uniform usage of synonymous codons, occurs across all domains of life. Adaptive CUB is hypothesized to result from various selective pressures, including selection for efficient ribosome elongation, accurate translation, mRNA secondary structure, and/or protein folding. Given the critical link between protein folding and protein function, numerous studies have analyzed the relationship between codon usage and protein structure. The results from these studies have often been contradictory, likely reflecting the differing methods used for measuring codon usage and the failure to appropriately control for confounding factors, such as differences in amino acid usage between protein structures and changes in the frequency of different structures with gene expression. Here we take an explicit population genetics approach to quantify codon-specific shifts in natural selection related to protein structure in S. cerevisiae and E. coli. Unlike other metrics of codon usage, our approach explicitly separates the effects of natural selection, scaled by gene expression, and mutation bias while naturally accounting for a region’s amino acid usage. Bayesian model comparisons suggest selection on codon usage varies only slightly between helix, sheet, and coil secondary structures and, similarly, between structured and intrinsically-disordered regions. Similarly, in contrast to previous findings, we find selection on codon usage only varies slightly at the termini of helices in E. coli. Using simulated data, we show this previous work indicating “non-optimal” codons are enriched at the beginning of helices in S. cerevisiae was due to failure to control for various confounding factors (e.g. amino acid biases, gene expression, etc.), and rather than selection to modulate cotranslational folding. Our results reveal a weak relationship between codon usage and protein structure, indicating that differences in selection on codon usage between structures are slight. In addition to the magnitude of differences in selection between protein structures being slight, the observed shifts appear to be idiosyncratic and largely codon-specific rather than systematic reversals in the nature of selection. Overall, our work demonstrates the statistical power and benefits of studying selective shifts on codon usage or other genomic features from an explicitly evolutionary approach. Limitations of this approach and future potential research avenues are discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

AthenaK: A Performance-portable Version of the Athena++ Adaptive Mesh Refinement Framework

We describe AthenaK: a new implementation of the Athena++ block-based adaptive mesh refinement framework using the Kokkos programming model. Finite volume methods for Newtonian, special relativistic, and general relativistic (GR) hydrodynamics and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), and GR-radiation hydrodynamics and MHD, as well as a module for evolving Lagrangian tracer or charged test particles (e.g., cosmic rays) are implemented using the framework. In two companion papers, we describe (1) a new solver for the Einstein equations based on the Z4c formalism, and (2) a GRMHD solver in dynamical spacetimes also implemented using the framework, enabling new applications in numerical relativity. By adopting Kokkos, the code can be run on virtually any hardware, including CPUs, GPUs from multiple vendors, and emerging Advanced RISC Machine processors. AthenaK shows excellent performance and weak scaling, achieving over 1 billion cell updates per second for hydrodynamics in three dimensions on a single NVIDIA Grace Hopper processor. It does this with a typical parallel efficiency of 80% on 65,536 AMD GPUs on the OLCF Frontier system. Such performance portability enables AthenaK to leverage modern exascale computing systems for challenging applications in astrophysical fluid dynamics, numerical relativity, and multimessenger astrophysics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA's High-Resolution GEOS Forecasting and Reanalysis Products: Support for TOLNet

Stratospheric intrusions (SIs) the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere – have been the interest of decades of research for their link with surface ozone air quality exceedances, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime; however, the impact of SIs in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. We can expect MERRA-2 to realistically represent both atmospheric dynamics and composition. The operational GEOS weather forecasting system, GEOS-FP, has a similar ozone observing system to MERRA-2, while NASA's new global high-resolution air quality forecast system, GEOS-CF, combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12), simulating a wide range of additional air pollutants and tracers which strengthens this detailed analysis of the intrusions and the sources for the high ozone concentrations. Using a multitude of observational datasets, including lidar, air craft, ozonesondes and air quality monitoring surface sites, in combination with the GEOS forecast and reanalysis products, we aim to provide the public with tools which are available in near-real time to enhance their capability to identify the impact of stratospheric air on surface ozone concentrations separate from anthropogenic sources. In particular, improved understanding of the connections between large-scale climate variability and local-scale dynamically-driven air quality events may support improved seasonal prediction of SI events.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Simulating Underexpanded Plumes in Martian and Lunar Environments

While the Loci/Chem Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) application has been validated and used extensively for simulating launch environments in atmospheric conditions, use of this tool for simulating supersonic plumes at much lower ambient pressure requires further validation. Simulations of underexpanded plumes have been performed using Loci/Chem at Martian pressure to predict several metrics for laminar, turbulent, and impinging plumes. The CFD results are compared with an experimental data set for low Reynolds number plumes at these conditions in order to evaluate the current capability of the Loci/Chem tool for these types of environments. The CFD validation results to date show reasonable agreement with the experimental data across all the metrics of interest for the configurations considered. The Loci/Chem-Boltzmann tool is a hybrid continuum/rarefied flow solver which extends modeling capabilities to very low-pressure environments such as those on the Moon. The Loci/Chem-Boltzmann solver uses a gradient-based continuum breakdown criterion to restrict solution of the computationally expensive Boltzmann equation to only a subset of the domain, while using the Navier-Stokes equations elsewhere. This CFD application is under active development, and current efforts toward establishing production ready capability for evaluating Lunar plume surface interactions are well under way. Initial simulations of an Apollo Lunar excursion module indicate that several regions of the flow require solving the Boltzmann equations due to extreme rarefaction. Early simulations are promising, indicating reasonable overall computational time for a full 3D human scale lander simulation.

Plume Surface Interaction↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Modulated by Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce over 50% of tropical precipitation and account for the majority of extreme rainfall and flooding events. MCSs are considered the building blocks of larger-scale convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). While CCEWs can provide favorable environments for convection, how CCEWs can systematically impact organized convection and thereby MCS characteristics is less clear. We examine this question by analyzing a global MCS tracking data set. During the active phase of CCEWs, MCS frequency increases and MCSs rain harder, produce more lifetime total rain, and grow larger in size. The probability of extreme MCSs also elevates. These changes are most pronounced when MCSs are associated with Kelvin waves and tropical depression-type waves while less so with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Furthermore, these results can be benchmarks to improve model representation of MCS interactions with large-scale circulations and can be leveraged for operational forecasts of high-impact MCSs at extended lead times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CarbAl Heat Transfer Material

The increasing use of power electronics, such as high-current semiconductor devices and modules, within space vehicles is driving the need to develop specialty thermal management materials in both the packaging of these discrete devices and the packaging of modules consisting of these device arrays. Developed by Applied Nanotech, Inc. (ANI), CarbAl heat transfer material is uniquely characterized by its low density, high thermal diffusivity, and high thermal conductivity. Its coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) is similar to most power electronic materials, making it an effective base plate substrate for state-of-the-art silicon carbide (SiC) super junction transistors. The material currently is being used to optimize hybrid vehicle inverter packaging. Adapting CarbAl-based substrates to space applications was a major focus of the SBIR project work. In Phase I, ANI completed modeling and experimentation to validate its deployment in a space environment. Key parameters related to cryogenic temperature scaling of CTE, thermal conductivity, and mechanical strength. In Phase II, the company concentrated on improving heat sinks and thermally conductive circuit boards for power electronic applications.

Fink, Richard↗

Nonparametric Multiparticle Set Methods for Interpreting Environmental Samples

Collection and analysis of environmental samples is commonly used by a range of stakeholders in nuclear safeguards and security contexts. While the ubiquity of samples and their transport in the environment allow regular collection, developing and demonstrating methods for analyzing these samples is difficult. In this work, an environmental sample consists of a set of one or more individual particles. Recent advances in reactor simulation have allowed us to generate data that are more representative of real-world environmental samples, enabling statistically defensible method development and testing. The most notable of these advances is a drastic increase in the number of material depletion regions, which allows our simulations to capture the variation in isotopic composition seen at length scales consistent with environmental samples. Traditional approaches for handling multiparticle samples treat each particle in the sample individually, estimating the quantity of interest (e.g., core-average burnup) resulting from measurement and analysis of signatures (e.g., nuclide assays) from each individual particle. Individual estimates are then averaged to generate a single estimate of the quantity of interest over the entire sample. In this presentation, we introduce two novel approaches for interpreting environmental samples that comprise of multiple particles: (1) the Quantile-Quantile Comparator, which uses a multivariate generalization of quantile-quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, and (2) the Set Transformer, an attention-based neural network module designed to model interactions among elements (particles) in the input set (sample). Statistically representative sampling cannot be guaranteed as samples are passively collected and are beholden to what particles are available in the environment. These new analysis methods for set-input problems are expected to be more robust than traditional approaches to issues of sampling bias where particles are not uniformly distributed throughout regions of interest, as well as generally outperform traditional approaches by jointly considering all elements in the set. We will present results comparing the performance of traditional single particle approaches and the novel Quantile-Quantile Comparator and Set Transformer for interpretation of simulated environmental samples.

Phathanapirom, Birdy↗

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atomic Origin of the Autocatalytic Reduction of Monoclinic CuO in a Hydrogen Atmosphere

Reducibility is key for the use of bulk metal oxides in chemical transformation involving redox reactions but probing microscopic processes of oxide reduction is challenging. This is because the insulating nature of bulk oxides restricts ion and electron spectroscopic measurements of oxide surfaces. Herein, using a combination of environmental transmission electron microscopy and atomistic modeling, we report direct in-situ atomic-scale observations of the surface and subsurface dynamics and show that the hydrogen induced CuO reduction occurs via the surface decay of Cu-O/Cu bilayer atomic steps, formation of partially reduced CuO superstructure by the self-ordering of O vacancies in the subsurface, and collapse of Cu-O layers in the bulk. In this work, all these substeps can be traced back to the progressively increased concentration and activity of O vacancies in the surface and subsurface of the oxide, thereby leading to the self-accelerated oxide reduction. These results demonstrate the microscopic details that may have broader applicability in modulating various redox processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Resiliency of Distribution Systems Incorporating Asynchronous Information for System Restoration

Resiliency of distribution systems under extreme operating conditions is critical, especially when the utility is not available. With the large-scale deployment of distributed resources, it becomes possible to restore critical loads with local non-utility resources. Distribution system operators (DSOs) need to determine the critical loads to be restored, considering limited resources and distribution facilities. Several studies on resiliency have been conducted for the restoration of distribution systems. However, the inherent asynchronous characteristic on the information availability has not been incorporated. With incomplete and asynchronous information, decisions may be made that result in underutilization of generation resources. In this paper, a new distribution system restoration approach is proposed, considering uncertain devices and associated asynchronous information. It uses a two-module architecture that efficiently optimizes restoration actions using a binary linear programming model and evaluates their feasibility with unbalanced optimal power flow. Networked microgrids are included in the model. The IEEE 123-node test feeder is used for validation. Results show that asynchronous messages may affect the restoration actions significantly and the impacts can be mitigated by the proposed decision support tool for the DSOs.

Bedoya, Juan C.↗

DRDMannTurb: A Python package for scalable, data-driven synthetic turbulence

Synthetic turbulence models (STMs) are used in wind engineering to generate realistic flow fields and are employed as inputs to industrial wind simulations. Examples include prescribing inlet conditions in large eddy simulations that model loads on wind turbines and tall buildings. We are interested in STMs capable of generating fluctuations based on prescribed second-moment statistics since such models can simulate environmental conditions that closely resemble on-site observations. To this end, the widely used Mann model (see Mann, 1994, 1998) is the inspiration for DRDMannTurb. The Mann model is described by three physical parameters: a magnitude parameter influencing the global variance of the wind field and corresponding to the Kolmogorov constant multiplied by the rate of viscous dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy to the two-thirds, αϵ 2/3 , a turbulence length scale parameter L, and a nondimensional parameter Γ related to the lifetime of the eddies. A number of studies, as well as international standards (e.g., those by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)), include recommended values for these three parameters with the goal of standardizing wind simulations according to observed energy spectra. Yet, having only three parameters, the Mann model faces limitations in accurately representing the diversity of observable spectra. This Python package enables users to extend the Mann model and more accurately fit field measurements through flexible neural network models of the eddy lifetime function. Following Keith et al. (2021), we refer to this class of models as Deep Rapid Distortion (DRD) models. DRDMannTurb also includes a general module implementing an efficient method for synthetic turbulence generation based on a domain decomposition technique. This technique is also described in Keith et al. (2021).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling the Observed Solar Cycle Variations of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO): Amplification by Wave Forcing

In several papers, the solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the zonal circulation, which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW). Salby and Callaghan (2000) in particular analyzed the QBO, covering more than 40 years, and discovered that it contains a large SC signature at 20 km. With our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we conducted a 3D study to describe the QBO under the influence of the SC, and some results have been published (Mayr et al., GRL, 2005,2006). For a SC period of 10 years, the relative amplitude of radiative forcing is taken to vary exponentially with height, i.e., 0.2% at the surface, 2% at 50 km, 20% at 100 km and above. Applying spectral analysis to filter out and identify the SC signature, the model generates a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which reproduces the observations qualitatively. Our numerical results demonstrate that the modulation of the QBO, with constant phase relative to the SC, persist at least for 60 years. The same model run generates in the seasonal variations a hemispherically symmetric Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO, with 12-month period), which is confined to low latitudes like the QBO and is also modulated by the SC. Although the amplitude of the EAO is relatively small, its SC modulation is large, and it is in phase with that of the QBO. The SC modulated EAO is evidently the pathway and pacemaker for the solar influence on the QBO. To shed light on the dynamical processes involved, we present model results that show how the seasonal cycle induces the SC modulations of the EAO and QBO. Our analysis further demonstrates that the SC modulations of the QBO and EAO are amplified by the GW interaction with the flow. The GW momentum source clearly shows a SC modulation that is in phase with the corresponding modulations of the QBO and EAO. By tapping the momentum from the upward propagating GWs, the QBO and EAO apparently serve as conduits to amplify and transfer to lower altitudes the larger SC variations in the UV absorbed in the mesosphere. Our model also produces in the temperature variations of the QBO and EAO measurable SC modulations at polar latitudes near the tropopause, and such signatures have been reported in the literature. Contrary to conventional interpretation, however, we suggest that the effects are generated at least in part by the meridional circulation, and planetary waves presumably, which redistribute the energy from the equatorial region where wave forcing is very efficient and thereby amplifies the SC influence.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - Simulated Marine Hydrokinetic Tidal Turbine

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset is part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with other energy technologies. This dataset contains inputs and outputs from simulations of a floating marine hydrokinetic turbine over approximately half a tidal cycle (~6.6 hours). Inflow conditions were derived from field measurements in Alaska’s Cook Inlet and represent a tidal environment in which the current speed ramps from near 0 m/s to a peak of 3 m/s and back. The original acoustic doppler current profiler dataset is publicly available on the Marine and Hydrokinetic Data Repository. In a full tidal cycle, the flow reverses and the rotor would reorient; this reversal was not modeled. In the Cook Inlet campaign , turbulence intensity was similar in both directions. Two inflow cases are included. In the first case, labeled “raw” in the files, the measured current time series was used directly in the InflowWind module of OpenFAST. Speed and direction were applied as a function of time and elevation, uniformly in the horizontal direction. With full spatial coherence, this approach captures high turbulent variability and results in pronounced power fluctuations, so it is considered a conservative, near-worst-case representation of loading. In the second case, labeled “average” in the files, a 30-minute moving average was applied to extract the slowly varying mean speed. The residual fluctuations about this mean were used to generate spatially varying, full-field turbulence inputs with TurbSim, giving a more physically realistic representation of the inflow across the rotor disk. Two random realizations were used to produce distinct inflow conditions for two OpenFAST simulations representing a two-turbine array. The same turbulence intensity is applied across the full time series, producing larger fluctuations at the start and end, where the mean speed is low. The second case is the more appropriate framework for performance and power assessment but overpredicts turbulence at lower flow speeds and underpredicts it at higher speeds. As the floating platform moves and the rotor changes its x-position, Taylor’s frozen turbulence hypothesis used by InflowWind assumes a constant rather than a time-varying mean velocity, introducing some inaccuracy in the velocity plane sampling. The turbine modeled is the 500-kW Reference Model 1, a horizontal-axis two-bladed hydrokinetic turbine on a four-column floating semisubmersible substructure . Simulations were performed using OpenFAST v4.1 with the Reference Open Source Controller (ROSCO) v2.10. All input files required to reproduce the simulations are included. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel . This unit supports up to 2.5 MW, but NLR has only a single 1.25-MW stack. The datasets report hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. The system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operating current of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The simulated tidal turbine time series data was translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz. Each zip file represents a single tidal electrolysis experiment and is named: {technology}_{inflow method}_{number of 500 kW tidal turbines connected} For instance, “tidal-500kW-RM1_average_2.zip” is a 6-hour experiment using the 500-kW tidal reference model, scaled by 2x (1-MW) to better match the electrolyzer maximum of 1.25MW, fed with the 30-minute moving average current case. Each zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file of raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wave power. A .csv file combines all tidal profiles as "combined_tidal_experiments.csv." A separate experiment, “characterization_200.zip,” shows the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps over 5 hours and is accessible with this entry.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic

The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) plays a pivotal role in its impact through a modulation of wind duration, rainfall extent and storm surge. While global and basin scale trends in TC size have been examined previously, whether there have been regional changes over time remains unclear. Here, using a suite of observations and reanalyses, we detect an increasing TC outer size over the western North Atlantic during 1979–2022. Over the western subtropical North Atlantic where the largest changes are found, the area-averaged increase in the radius of 17 ms -1 winds is about 7.5% over this period. Analysis of the large-scale environment reveals that the air-sea thermodynamic state has become more favorable for storm intensification, and thereby expansion, over that region. Further, numerical model simulations link changes in the environment with those in storm size, and suggest a combination of natural variability and external forcing in driving them.

Balaguru, Karthik [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

Small Ion Channel Linking Molecular Simulations and Electrophysiology

Ion channels are pore-forming protein assemblies that mediate the transport of small ions across cell membranes. Otherwise, membrane bilayers would be almost impermeable to ions incapable to traverse the low dielectric constant, hydrophobic membrane core. Ion channels are ubiquitous to all life forms. In humans and other higher organisms they play the central role in conducting nerve impulses, cardiac functions, muscle contraction and apoptosis. On the other extreme of biological complexity, viral ion channels (viroporins) influence many stages of the virus infection cycle either through regulating virus replication, such as entry, assembly and release or modulating the electrochemical balance in the subcellular compartments of host cells. Ion channels were crucial components of protocells. Their emergence facilitated adaptation of nascent life to different environmental conditions. The earliest ion channels must have been much simpler than most of their modern ancestors. Viral channels are among only a few naturally occurring models to study the structure, function and evolution of primordial channels. Experimental studies of these properties are difficult and often unreliable. In principle, computational methods, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in particular, can aid in providing information about both the structure and the function of ion channels. However, MD suffers from its own problems, such as inability to access sufficiently long time scales or limited accuracy of force fields. It is, therefore, essential to determine the reliability of MD simulations. We propose to do so on the basis of two criteria. One is channel stability on time scales that extend for several microseconds or longer. The other is the ability to reproduce the measured ionic conductance as a function of applied voltage. If both the stability and the calculated ionic conductance are satisfactory it will greatly increase our confidence that the structure and the function of a channel are described sufficiently accurately. To our knowledge, long time scale stability (approx.10 micro-sec) and the correct electrophysiology have been shown so far for only one channel - the synthetic LS3 hexamer). In this presentation, this approach will be discussed in application to two viral channels - Vpu, encoded by the HIV-1 genome and p7 of hepatitis C.

Pohorille, Andrzej↗

Impacts of NASA's Earth Observations on Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasts

NASA's suite of Earth-observing satellites provides a unique view of many processes on Earth, with relevance on timescales ranging from hours to weeks and even years. NASA's observations span all parts of the Earth system: atmospheric, ocean, land and cryosphere, and include physical, chemical and biological components. This presentation explores use of NASA observations in extended-range prediction, from many days to months, using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) assimilation and predictive modeling capabilities. The skill of a weather forecast is linked to the fidelity of the initialization process (data assimilation) and the realistic representation of "fast" physical processes in the model. At longer time horizons, the slower "feedback" processes in the Earth System begin to take a more prominent role in the accuracy of the forecast. Simultaneously, forecast-skill attribution transitions away from feature-based metrics that emphasize smaller scales (e.g., representations of fronts and vortices) to metrics that emphasize the statistical distributions of large-scale features (e.g., ENSO diagnostics and teleconnections). This presentation will summarize studies performed using the GEOS-S2S (subseasonal to seasonal) system that explore the impacts of NASA observations on the fidelity of the forecasts. The GEOS-S2S system is configured for the atmosphere-ocean-land-ice model and is initialized using in-situ and space-based observations, including atmospheric aerosols and ozone which are not typically analyzed in such systems. The GEOS-S2S model routinely includes aerosol feedbacks, which systematically impact the realism of the forecasts, providing a first example of how suitable NASA observations impact the performance of the GEOS-S2S system. Studies in which a stratospheric chemistry module is activated in the GEOS-S2S system allow the impacts of ozone radiative feedbacks to be isolated. Space-based observations of sea-surface temperature and altimetry are routinely analyzed for the initialization of the GEOS-S2S system; recent advances allow the use of NASA's sea-surface salinity data, which are shown to impact the long-range skill of the forecasts.

Pawson, Steven↗

Utilizing commercial heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services: A review

The modern power grid faces multiple challenges due to an increase in the adoption of renewable generation, such as dynamically balancing supply and demand at different time scales. Demand side management in buildings plays a vital role in achieving this balance because buildings can provide grid services through a variety of building assets. However, the development of grid-interactive, efficient buildings is still in its infancy, and a systematic and holistic understanding of grid service delivery strategies in terms of energy efficiency, load shifting, load shedding and load modulating is still limited. This paper is a comprehensive review of the development and application of building-level control strategies for utilizing heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services. These strategies have been investigated through numerical and experimental studies. Control algorithms, such as heuristic rule-based control and model-based control, have been used to enable the automatic control delivery of grid services. The advantages and disadvantages of the strategies are summarized and discussed. Finally, research trends are also identified, which include considering predicted mean vote-based and occupant-based thermal comfort, modeling of occupant behavior, integrating power grid operations with building control, and combining different demand flexibility modes in the control design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A novel sub-pilot-scale direct-contact ultrasonic dehydration technology for sustainable production of distillers dried grains (DDG)

DDG is a major source of protein, calcium, phosphorus, and sulfur is arguably the most important byproduct of the bioethanol industry with increasing demand over the past few years. Reducing energy consumption in the DDG production process and energy recovery from DDG is vital for sustainable bioethanol productions. In this paper, a novel direct-contact multi-frequency, multimode, and modulated (MMM) ultrasonic dryer (US) was developed for the first time and has been applied in dehydration of wet distillers' grain (WDG). Ultrasonic drying (US) was combined with a convective airflow (HA) at different temperatures of 25 (room temperature), 50 and 70 °C to evaluate the impact of US, HA, and US + HA on drying kinetics, activation energy, chemical compositions, microstructure, and color of DDG. Semi-empirical kinetic models were developed and evaluating drying performances showed that the application of ultrasound significantly enhanced the drying rate and decreased the drying time (by 46%), especially at low drying temperatures. The activation energy for moisture removal in the presence of ultrasound was about 50% of that without ultrasound. The final dried distillers' grains product processed by ultrasonic drying had a brighter color, a higher available protein, a higher digestible protein (the lowest acid detergent insoluble crude protein), and a better surface profile with no compromise on minerals and fiber contents.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗