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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Neural simulation-based inference approach for characterizing the Galactic Center γ-ray excess

The nature of the Fermi γ-ray Galactic Center Excess (GCE) has remained a persistent mystery for over a decade. Although the excess is broadly compatible with emission expected due to dark matter annihilation, an explanation in terms of a population of unresolved astrophysical point sources e.g., millisecond pulsars, remains viable. The effort to uncover the origin of the GCE is hampered in particular by an incomplete understanding of diffuse emission of Galactic origin. This can lead to spurious features that make it difficult to robustly differentiate smooth emission, as expected for a dark matter origin, from more “clumpy” emission expected from a population of relatively bright, unresolved point sources. Here, we use recent advancements in the field of simulation-based inference, in particular density estimation techniques using normalizing flows, in order to characterize the contribution of modeled components, including unresolved point source populations, to the GCE. Compared to traditional techniques based on the statistical distribution of photon counts, our machine learning-based method is able to utilize more of the information contained in a given model of the Galactic Center emission, and in particular can perform posterior parameter estimation while accounting for pixel-to-pixel spatial correlations in the γ-ray map. This makes the method demonstrably more resilient to certain forms of model misspecification. On application to Fermi data, the method generically attributes a smaller fraction of the GCE flux to unresolved point sources when compared to traditional approaches. We nevertheless infer such a contribution to make up a non-negligible fraction of the GCE across all analysis variations considered, with at least $38^{+9}_{-19}$% of the excess attributed to unresolved point sources in our baseline analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Light front synchronization and rest frame densities of the proton: Electromagnetic densities

We clarify the physical origin and meaning of the two-dimensional relativistic densities of the light front formalism. The densities are shown to originate entirely from the use of light front time instead of instant form time, which physically corresponds to using an alternative synchronization convention. This is shown by using tilted light front coordinates, which consist of light front time and ordinary spatial coordinates, and which are also used to show that the obtained densities describe a system at rest rather than at infinite momentum. These coordinates allow all four components of the electromagnetic current density to be given clear physical meanings. We explicate the formalism for spin-half targets, obtaining charge and current densities of the proton and neutron using empirical form factor parametrizations, as well as up and down quark densities and currents. Angular modulations in the densities of transversely polarized states are explained as originating from redshifts and blueshifts due to quarks moving in different longitudinal directions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Searching for cosmological stochastic backgrounds by notching out resolvable compact binary foregrounds with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors

Stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds can be of either cosmological or astrophysical origin. The detection of an astrophysical stochastic gravitational-wave background with ground-based interferometers is expected in the near future. Perhaps even more excitingly, the detection of stochastic backgrounds of cosmological origin by future ground-based interferometers could reveal invaluable information about the early Universe. From this perspective, the astrophysical background is a foreground that can prevent the extraction of this information from the data. In this paper, we revisit a time-frequency domain notching procedure previously proposed to remove the astrophysical foreground in the context of next-generation ground-based detectors, but we consider the more realistic scenario where we remove individually detectable signals by taking into account the uncertainty in the estimation of their parameters. We find that time-frequency domain masks can still efficiently remove the astrophysical foreground and suppress it to about 5% of its original level. Further removal of the foreground formed by unresolvable events (in particular, unresolvable binary neutron stars), which is about 10 times larger than the residual foreground from realistic notching, would require detector sensitivity improvements. Therefore, the main limitation in the search for a cosmological background is the unresolvable foreground itself, and not the residual of the notching procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weak Ferromagnetism in Altermagnets from Alternating 𝑔-Tensor Anisotropy

Altermagnets are magnetic materials with antiferromagnetic spin ordering but exhibit ferromagnetic properties. Understanding the microscopic origin of the latter is a central problem. Ferromagnetlike properties such as the anomalous Hall effect are linked with weak ferromagnetism, whose microscopic origin in altermagnets remains unclear however. We show theoretically that the alternating 𝑔-tensor anisotropy in altermagnets can induce weak orbital ferromagnetism even when the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction is forbidden. We demonstrate this mechanism to explain weak ferromagnetism for both collinear and noncollinear spin altermagnets. Our findings provide new insights into the origin of weak ferromagnetism and suggest orbital-based ways for manipulating magnetic configurations in altermagnets.

Altermagnetism↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Adiabatic Optimization with Rydberg Arrays: Localization Phenomena and Encoding Strategies

Quantum adiabatic optimization seeks to solve combinatorial problems using quantum dynamics, requiring the Hamiltonian of the system to align with the problem of interest. However, these Hamiltonians are often incompatible with the native constraints of quantum hardware, necessitating encoding strategies to map the original problem into a hardware-conformant form. While the classical overhead associated with such mappings is easily quantifiable and typically polynomial in problem size, it is much harder to quantify their overhead on the quantum algorithm, e.g., the transformation of the adiabatic timescale. In this work, we address this challenge on the concrete example of the encoding scheme proposed in [Nguyen , PRX Quantum , 010316 (2023)], which is designed to map optimization problems on arbitrarily connected graphs into Rydberg atom arrays. We consider the fundamental building blocks underlying this encoding scheme and determine the scaling of the minimum gap with system size along adiabatic protocols. Even when the original problem is trivially solvable, we find that the encoded problem can exhibit an exponentially closing minimum gap. We show that this originates from a quantum coherent effect, which gives rise to an unfavorable localization of the ground-state wave function. On the QuEra Aquila neutral atom machine, we observe such localization and its effect on the success probability of finding the correct solution to the encoded optimization problem. Finally, we propose quantum-aware modifications of the encoding scheme that avoid this quantum bottleneck and lead to an exponential improvement in the adiabatic performance. This highlights the crucial importance of accounting for quantum effects when designing strategies to encode classical problems onto quantum platforms. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Bombieri, Lisa (ORCID:0009000950422897)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differentially Private Generation of Social Networks via Exponential Random Graph Models

Many social networks contain sensitive relational information. One approach to protect the sensitive relational information while offering flexibility for social network research and analysis is to release synthetic social networks at a pre-specified privacy risk level, given the original observed network. In this work, we propose the DP-ERGM procedure that synthesizes networks that satisfy the differential privacy (DP) via the exponential random graph model (EGRM). We apply DP-ERGM to a college student friendship network and compare its original network information preservation in the generated private networks with two other approaches: differentially private DyadWise Randomized Response (DWRR) and Sanitization of the Conditional probability of Edge given Attribute classes (SCEA). The results suggest that DP-EGRM preserves the original information significantly better than DWRR and SCEA in both network statistics and inferences from ERGMs and latent space models. In addition, DP-ERGM satisfies the node DP, a stronger notion of privacy than the edge DP that DWRR and SCEA satisfy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

75 Years of Drift: The changing meaning of phasor [History]

The origin of what electrical engineers call a phasor diagram is explored, and traced to a treatise by William Thomson (later Lord Kelvin) and Peter Tait. The diagram was mechanical in origin, and gave a geometrical way to visualize and calculate the interactions of sinusoidal motions. Originally, the words radius vector were used in association with the diagram. Later authors used vector. As work on electromagnetic fields expanded, the word phasor was introduced to replace it. That change came about as a result of a deliberate effort (in 1944) to have a clear and unambiguous term of art. Since then, the meaning of the word has changed, and the geometrical interpretation has fallen out of favor. Unfortunately, clarity and unambiguity have suffered as a result. Newer meanings are examined. The measurement of phase angle in the electric power system is described. An Appendix on the work of Steinmetz shows that he did not favor the phasor representation.

Vector, Phasor, Phasor Measurement Unit↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field Study of Nighttime Leakage Currents in Bifacial PV Modules: Correlation with Atmospheric Electric Field Data

Leakage currents measured on PV modules in the field originate from a potential difference between the modules' frame and the cells. They can be a relative indicator of Potential-Induced Degradation (PID) severity, especially when comparing the same module design in a different environment. As modules are not operating at night, no leakage current should be observed but our team has reported several events of nighttime leakage currents on bifacial PV modules. These events have been firstly observed during a thunderstorm that are characterized by strong atmospheric electrical field values. This lead us to believe that nighttime leakage currents could originate from the atmospheric electric charges. In this paper, we correlate nighttime leakage currents measured on bifacial PV modules with field mill data to identify the origin of nighttime leakage currents. Our results show that so far, no leakage currents at night occur when the atmospheric electric field is between 0 and 150–200 V/m (standard value for fair weather). As soon as the atmospheric electric field is out of this range, leakage currents are observed with or without rain involved. This suggests a transport of charged particles from the atmosphere to the modules' frame. A combination of heavy rain with strong atmospheric electric field results into high nighttime leakage currents with a magnitude up to 8 times higher than what observed during the day with -1500V applied. This is explained by an easier transport of the charged particles through the water droplets. Based on these results, leakage currents observed during the day might not be only due to the inherent potential difference between the frame and the cells depending on the atmospheric electric field activity. We believe that it should be taken into account in PID studies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Multi-agent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Distribution System Decentralized Voltage Control with High Penetration of PVs

This paper proposes a novel model-free/data-driven centralized training and decentralized execution multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (MADRL) framework for distribution system voltage control with high penetration of PVs. The proposed MADRL can coordinate both the real and reactive power control of PVs with existing static var compensators and battery storage systems. Unlike the existing DRL-based voltage control methods, our proposed method does not rely on a system model during both the training and execution stages. This is achieved by developing a new interaction scheme between the surrogate modeling of the original system and the multi-agent soft actor critic (MASAC) MADRL algorithm. In particular, the sparse pseudo-Gaussian process with a few-shots of measurements is utilized to construct the surrogate model of the original environment, i.e., power flow model. This is a data-driven process and no model parameters are needed. Furthermore, the MASAC enabled MADRL allows to achieve better scalability by dividing the original system into different voltage control regions with the aid of real and reactive power sensitivities to voltage, where each region is treated as an agent. This also serves as the foundation for the centralized training and decentralized execution, thus significantly reducing the communication requirements as only local measurements are required for control. Comparative results with other alternatives on the IEEE 123-nodes and 342-nodes systems demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The incorporation of environmentally derived 87 Sr / 86 Sr and Sr/Ca in early otolith formation of Chinook salmon

Abstract Effective species management often requires understanding patterns of movement and habitat use. A common approach in identifying where individuals reside relies upon chemical tracers from the environment that are incorporated into an individual's tissues. For fish, isotopes in their otoliths, specifically the portion of their otolith formed during their larval stage, have been used to identify the natal origin. Complicating this work, however, is the fact that during this life stage, there is a shift in the source of isotopes deposited onto the growing otolith from maternally to environmentally derived. The objective of this study was to identify the portion of the otolith representing this transition to environmentally derived isotopes so as to accurately investigate questions of natal origin for a threatened population of fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). We exposed developing larvae to four treatments that differed in terms of their water strontium isotope ratio ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) and used change‐point analysis of otolith 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and strontium to calcium ratio (Sr/Ca) to identify the otolith radius corresponding to the transition to environmentally derived isotopes. Our results indicated this transition occurred, on average, at 132 μm ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr; ±50 μm standard deviation) and 127 μm (Sr/Ca; ±29 μm) from the otolith core, which corresponded to the developmental time between hatching and exogenous feeding. A substantial proportion of our otoliths (i.e., 61%) did not show convergence between otolith and water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr by the end of the 113‐day experiment, which was likely due to the dietary contribution of marine‐based feed. Therefore, we were unable to recommend an otolith radius to target for the purposes of reconstructing natal origin apart from being beyond approximately 130 μm.

Chittaro, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2023

Organic preservation of vase‐shaped microfossils from the late Tonian Chuar Group, Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA

Abstract Vase‐shaped microfossils (VSMs) are found globally in middle Neoproterozoic (800–730 Ma) marine strata and represent the earliest evidence for testate (shell‐forming) amoebozoans. VSM tests are hypothesized to have been originally organic in life but are most commonly preserved as secondary mineralized casts and molds. A few reports, however, suggest possible organic preservation. Here, we test the hypothesis that VSMs from shales of the lower Walcott Member of the Chuar Group, Grand Canyon, Arizona, contain original organic material, as reported by B. Bloeser in her pioneering studies of Chuar VSMs. We identified VSMs from two thin section samples of Walcott Member black shales in transmitted light microscopy and used scanning electron microscopy to image VSMs. Carbonaceous material is found within the internal cavity of all VSM tests from both samples and is interpreted as bitumen mobilized from Walcott shales likely during the Cretaceous. Energy dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy (EDS) and wavelength dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy (WDS) reveal that VSM test walls contain mostly carbon, iron, and sulfur, while silica is present only in the surrounding matrix. Raman spectroscopy was used to compare the thermal maturity of carbonaceous material within the samples and indicated the presence of pyrite and jarosite within fossil material. X‐ray absorption spectroscopy revealed the presence of reduced organic sulfur species within the carbonaceous test walls, the carbonaceous material found within test cavities, and in the sedimentary matrix, suggesting that organic matter sulfurization occurred within the Walcott shales. Our suite of spectroscopic analyses reveals that Walcott VSM test walls are organic and sometimes secondarily pyritized (with the pyrite variably oxidized to jarosite). Both preservation modes can occur at a millimeter spatial scale within sample material, and at times even within a single specimen. We propose that sulfurization within the Walcott Shales promoted organic preservation, and furthermore, the ratio of iron to labile VSM organic material controlled the extent of pyrite replacement. Based on our evidence, we conclude that the VSMs are preserved with original organic test material, and speculate that organic VSMs may often go unrecognized, given their light‐colored, translucent appearance in transmitted light.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trace element geochemistry of coarse-grained angrites from Northwest Africa: Implications for their petrogenesis on the angrite parent body

The angrites are a class of achondrites that encompass a wide range of igneous textures from quenched, volcanic, and subvolcanic stones to slowly cooled, plutonic rocks. The compositions of the various geochemical reservoirs generating this variety of rocks have not been investigated fully because historically the numbers and masses of angrites available for study have been quite small. However, the rapid increase in meteorites from Northwest Africa (NWA) has enabled a renewed opportunity for such an investigation. In particular, three samples, NWA 2999, 4590, and 4801, have provided a new window into our understanding of the origin and petrogenesis of the coarse-grained (plutonic) angrites. We report here the trace element abundances in individual mineral grains of pyroxene, plagioclase, olivine/kirschsteinite, and phosphate and in the whole-rock samples. We utilize these data to constrain the petrogenetic history of each of these samples on the angrite parent body (e.g., parental melt compositions and oxygen fugacity conditions) and assess genetic relationships to previously investigated angrites. The trace element abundances in each of the three coarse-grained angrites studied here indicate a unique history for each. The observed trace element abundances and patterns in NWA 2999 show similarities with previously studied fine-grained, volcanic angrites and potentially indicate a common geochemical source reservoir, even though NWA 2999 is temporally distinct from the volcanic angrites. In contrast, NWA 4590 has trace element characteristics analogous to other coarse-grained angrites (e.g., Lewis Cliff [LEW] 86010), suggesting that these samples originated from geochemically similar source reservoirs. The third angrite, NWA 4801, exhibits geochemical characteristics most similar to the plutonic, coarse-grained angrites, but also appears to have some affinities in its trace element characteristics to the volcanic, fine-grained angrites. This suggests that NWA 4801 may represent a petrogenetic link between two distinct geochemical reservoirs on the angrite parent body. In aggregate, the trace element distributions in these three plutonic angrites suggest that while they may have originated up to several million years after the fine-grained angrites, they sampled a range of source reservoirs on the angrite parent body. Here, some of these source reservoirs were likely similar to those of the fine-grained angrites, but others had distinct geochemical characteristics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influenza A Virus Multicycle Replication Yields Comparable Viral Population Emergence in Human Respiratory and Ocular Cell Types

While primarily considered a respiratory pathogen, influenza A virus (IAV) is nonetheless capable of spreading to, and replicating in, numerous extrapulmonary tissues in humans. However, within-host assessments of genetic diversity during multicycle replication have been largely limited to respiratory tract tissues and specimens. As selective pressures can vary greatly between anatomical sites, there is a need to examine how measures of viral diversity may vary between influenza viruses exhibiting different tropisms in humans, as well as following influenza virus infection of cells derived from different organ systems. Here, we employed human primary tissue constructs emulative of the human airway or corneal surface, and we infected both with a panel of human- and avian-origin IAV, inclusive of H1 and H3 subtype human viruses and highly pathogenic H5 and H7 subtype viruses, which are associated with both respiratory disease and conjunctivitis following human infection. While both cell types supported productive replication of all viruses, airway-derived tissue constructs elicited greater induction of genes associated with antiviral responses than did corneal-derived constructs. We used next-generation sequencing to examine viral mutations and population diversity, utilizing several metrics. With few exceptions, generally comparable measures of viral diversity and mutational frequency were detected following homologous virus infection of both respiratory-origin and ocular-origin tissue constructs. Expansion of within-host assessments of genetic diversity to include IAV with atypical clinical presentations in humans or in extrapulmonary cell types can provide greater insight into understanding those features most prone to modulation in the context of viral tropism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Maturation experiments reveal bias in the chemistry of fossil melanosomes

Fossil melanosomes are a major focus of paleobiological research because they can inform on the original coloration, phylogenetic affinities, and internal anatomy of ancient animals. Recent studies of vertebrate melanosomes revealed tissue-specific trends in melanosome-metal associations that can persist in fossils. In some fossil vertebrates, however, melanosomes from all body regions are enriched only in Cu, suggesting diagenetic overprinting of original chemistry. We tested this hypothesis using laboratory experiments on melanosomes from skin and liver of the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis. After maturation in Cu-rich media, the metal chemistry of melanosomes from these tissues converged toward a common composition, and original differences in Cu oxidation state were lost. Elevated Cu concentrations and a pervasive Cu(II) signal are likely indicators of diagenetically altered melanosomes. These results provide a robust experimental basis for interpretating the chemistry of fossil melanosomes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel scalings of neutron star properties from analyzing dimensionless Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff equations

The Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations govern the radial evolution of pressure and energy density in static neutron stars (NSs) in hydrodynamical equilibrium. Using the reduced pressure and energy density with respect to the NS central energy density, the original TOV equations can be recast into dimensionless forms. While the traditionally used integral approach for solving the original TOV equations require an input nuclear Equation of State (EOS), the dimensionless TOV equations can be anatomized by using the reduced pressure and energy density as polynomials of the reduced radial coordinate without using any input nuclear EOS. It has been shown in several of our recent works that interesting and novel perspectives about NS core EOS can be extracted directly from NS observables by using the latter approach. Our approach is based on intrinsic and perturbative analyses of the dimensionless (IPAD) TOV equations (IPAD-TOV). In this review article, we first discuss the length and energy density scales of NSs as well as the dimensionless TOV equations for scaled variables and their perturbative solutions near NS cores. We then review several new insights into NS physics gained from solving perturbatively the scaled TOV equations. Whenever appropriate, comparisons with the traditional approach from solving the original TOV equations will be made. In particular, we first show that the nonlinearity of the TOV equations basically excludes a linear EOS for dense matter in NS cores. We then show that perturbative analyses of the scaled TOV equations enable us to reveal novel scalings of the NS mass, radius and the compactness with certain combinations of the NS central pressure and energy density. Thus, observational data on either mass, radius or compactness can be used to constrain directly the core EOS of NS matter independent of the still very uncertain nuclear EOS models. As examples, the EOS of the densest visible matter in our Universe before the most massive neutron stars collapse into black holes (BHs) as well as the central EOS of a canonical or a 2.1 solar mass NS are extracted without using any nuclear EOS model. In addition, we show that causality in NSs sets an upper bound of about 0.374 for the ratio of pressure over energy density and correspondingly a lower limit for trace anomaly in supra-dense matter. We also demonstrate that the strong-field gravity plays a fundamental role in extruding a peak in the density/radius profile of the speed of sound squared (SSS) in massive NS cores independent of the nuclear EOS. Finally, some future perspectives of NS research using the new approach reviewed here by solving perturbatively the dimensionless TOV equations are outlined.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metal Organic Complexation in Seawater: Historical Background and Future Directions

The speciation of most biologically active trace metals in seawater is dominated by complexation by organic ligands. This review traces the history of work in this area, from the early observations that showed surprisingly poor recoveries using metal preconcentration protocols to the present day, where advances in mass spectroscopy and stable isotope geochemistry are providing new insights into the structure, origin, fate, and biogeochemical impact of organic ligands. Many long-standing hypotheses about the specific biological origin of ligands such as siderophores in seawater are finally being validated. This work has revealed the complexity of organic complexation, with multiple ligands and, in some cases, timescales of ligand exchange that are much slower than originally thought. The influence of organic complexation on scavenging is now a key parameter in biogeochemical models of biologically essential metals, especially iron. New insights about the sources and sinks of ligands are required to enhance the usefulness of these models.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two-Layer Dynamic Recycling Model (2L-DRM): Learning from Moisture Tracking Models of Different Complexity

Atmospheric moisture tracking models are used to identify and quantify sources and sinks of water in the atmospheric branch of the hydrologic cycle. These models are primarily used to investigate the origin of moisture resulting in precipitation for particular regions around the globe. Moisture tracking models vary widely in their level of complexity, depending on the number of physical processes represented. Complex models are comprehensive in their physical representation, but computationally much more expensive than simple models, which only focus on specific physical processes and use simplifying assumptions. We present the mathematical derivation of the new two-layer dynamical recycling model (2L-DRM), a simple analytical moisture tracking model that relaxes the vertically-integrated formulation of the original one-layer DRM (Dominguez et al., 2006). By comparing the simple DRM to a very complex moisture tracking model that uses water vapor tracers embedded within the Weather Research and Forecast regional climate model (WRF-WVT) for the North American Monsoon region, we pinpoint the absence of vertical wind shear as the main deficiency in the simple DRM. When comparing both simple models (DRM and 2L-DRM) to the WRF-WVT (which we treat as ‘truth’), the 2L-DRM better captures the spatial extent, the net amount and the temporal variability of precipitation that originates from oceanic and local terrestrial sources. The 2L-DRM is well suited to study the large-scale climatological sources of moisture, and for these applications, performs on-par with the much more complex and computationally demanding WRF-WVT model.

Dominguez, Francina↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surface-to-Interior Transport Timescales and Ventilation Patterns in a Time-Dependent Circulation Driven by Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO 2 , which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO 2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO 2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗