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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Jose Cabrera dismantling and decommissioning project

The Jose Cabrera Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) was the first commercial power reactor (Westinghouse 1 loop PWR 510 MWth, 160 MWe) commissioned in Spain and provided the base for future development and training. The reactor construction started in 1963 and it was officially on-line by 1969. The NPP operated from 1969 until 2006 when it became the first reactor to be shut down after completing its operational period. The containment is reinforced concrete with a stainless steel head. In 2010 responsibility for D and D was transferred to Enresa to achieve IAEA level 3 (a green field site available for unrestricted re-uses) by 2017. Of the total of more than 104,000 tons of materials that will be generated during dismantling, it is estimated that only ∼4,000 tons will be radioactive waste, some of which, 40 t are considered as intermediate level long-lived wastes and the rest (3,960 t) will be categorized as VLLW and ILLW. The Project is divided into five phases: Phase 0 - Removal of fuel and preliminary work.. Phase 1 - Preparatory Activities for D and D. complete. Phase 2 - Dismantling of Major Components. Phase 3 - Removal of Auxiliary Installations, Decontamination and Demolition. Phase 4 - Environmental Restoration. Phase 2, is currently ongoing (50% completed). To manage the diverse aspects of decommissioning operations, Enresa uses an internally developed computerized project management tool. The tool, based on knowledge gathered from other Enresa projects, can process operations management, maintenance operations, materials, waste, storage areas, procedures, work permits, operator dose management and records. Enresa considers that communication is important for both internal and external stakeholder relations and can be used to inform, to neutralize negative opinions and attitudes, to remove false expectations and for training. Enresa has created a new multi-purpose area (exhibition/visitor centre) and encourages visits from the public, local schools, local and national politicians and technical groups. Greenfield is the final end state objective. The total cost of this project, including a 20% contingency as estimated in 2003 is 135 Meuros. This figure does not include the management of the plant spent fuel, which has constituted an independent project that has been completed in 2009 (35 Meuros). Enresa, with 15 staff on site are managing a team of ∼250 workers, 40 of whom belong to the previous operator. The spent fuel is On-Site prior to the final destination in the future Spain Centralized Spent Fuel Installation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2013

The involvement of SCK-CEN in decommissioning projects

SCK-CEN is the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre. Founded in the mid-fifties, it has accumulated experience and know-how in all fields of the nuclear power production: in the neutronics calculation, radiation protection, waste management, fuel performance and analysis, nuclear measurements, radiochemistry, reactor technology, etc. Since 1989, SCK-CEN has launched Decommissioning activities to deal with the Technical Liabilities created by 40 years of operation. The main projects started were: - the dismantling of the BR3 PWR reactor; - the dismantling of active laboratories and the decontamination of buildings for unrestricted reuse; - the management of the waste arising from the refurbishment activities of the BR2, especially the management of the high active beryllium matrix. In 1989, the BR3 reactor, a Pressurized Water Reactor, was selected by the European Commission as one of the four pilot dismantling projects in the framework of the EC five year RTD program on dismantling nuclear installations. Through this project, SCK-CEN has built up a broad know-how in dismantling and decommissioning operations. This know how concerns the decontamination for dose rate reduction and/or free release of materials, tele-operated techniques for cutting highly activated components of a reactor, concrete decontamination techniques, characterization techniques of radioactive waste or for free release of components and development of decommissioning management and record-keeping of material streams and of nuclear material accountancy. SCK-CEN is now actively involved in other decommissioning projects in Belgium and in expertise abroad. After giving an overview of the main achievements and the perspectives of the decommissioning of the BR3 reactor, the paper intends to present the involvement of SCK-CEN in the other decommissioning projects and to give an overview of our activities and capacities. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

WE-G-BRF-05: Feasibility of Markerless Motion Tracking Using Dual Energy Cone Beam Computed Tomography (DE-CBCT) Projections

Purpose: To compare markerless template-based tracking of lung tumors using dual energy (DE) cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) projections versus single energy (SE) CBCT projections. Methods: A RANDO chest phantom with a simulated tumor in the upper right lung was used to investigate the effectiveness of tumor tracking using DE and SE CBCT projections. Planar kV projections from CBCT acquisitions were captured at 60 kVp (4 mAs) and 120 kVp (1 mAs) using the Varian TrueBeam and non-commercial iTools Capture software. Projections were taken at approximately every 0.53° while the gantry rotated. Due to limitations of the phantom, angles for which the shoulders blocked the tumor were excluded from tracking analysis. DE images were constructed using a weighted logarithmic subtraction that removed bony anatomy while preserving soft tissue structures. The tumors were tracked separately on DE and SE (120 kVp) images using a template-based tracking algorithm. The tracking results were compared to ground truth coordinates designated by a physician. Matches with a distance of greater than 3 mm from ground truth were designated as failing to track. Results: 363 frames were analyzed. The algorithm successfully tracked the tumor on 89.8% (326/363) of DE frames compared to 54.3% (197/363) of SE frames (p<0.0001). Average distance between tracking and ground truth coordinates was 1.27 +/− 0.67 mm for DE versus 1.83+/−0.74 mm for SE (p<0.0001). Conclusion: This study demonstrates the effectiveness of markerless template-based tracking using DE CBCT. DE imaging resulted in better detectability with more accurate localization on average versus SE. Supported by a grant from Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-AB-303-01: FEATURED PRESENTATION: A Dual-Detector Phase-Matched Digital Tomosynthesis (DTS) Imaging Scheme Using Aggregated KV and MV Projections for Intra-Treatment Lung Tumor Tracking

Purpose: To develop a dual-detector phase-matched DTS technique for continuous and fast intra-treatment lung tumor localization. Methods: Tumor localization accuracy of limited-angle DTS imaging is affected by low inter-slice resolution. The dual-detector DTS technique aims to overcome this limitation through combining orthogonally acquired beam’s eye view MV projections and kV projections for intra-treatment DTS reconstruction and localization. To aggregate the kV and MV projections for reconstruction, the MV projections were linearly converted to synthesize corresponding kV projections. To further address the lung motion induced localization errors, this technique uses respiratory phase-matching to match the motion information between on-board DTS and reference DTS to offset the adverse effects of motion blurriness in tumor localization.A study was performed using the CIRS008A lung phantom to simulate different on-board target variation scenarios for localization. The intra-treatment kV and MV acquisition was achieved through the Varian TrueBeam Developer Mode. Four methods were compared for their localization accuracy: 1. the proposed dual-detector phase-matched DTS technique; 2. the single-detector phase-matched DTS technique; 3. the dual-detector 3D-DTS technique without phase-matching; and 4. the single-detector 3D-DTS technique without phase-matching. Results: For scan angles of 2.5°, 5°, 10°, 20° and 30°, the dual-detector phase-matched DTS technique localized the tumor with average(±standard deviations) errors of 0.4±0.3 mm, 0.5±0.3 mm, 0.6±0.2 mm, 0.9±0.4 mm and 1.0±0.3 mm, respectively. The corresponding values of single-detector phase-matched DTS technique were 4.0±2.5 mm, 2.7±1.1 mm, 1.7±1.2 mm, 2.2±0.9 mm and 1.5±0.8 mm, respectively. The values of dual-detector 3D-DTS technique were 6.2±1.7 mm, 6.3±1.2 mm, 5.3±1.3 mm, 2.0±2.2 mm and 1.5±0.5 mm, respectively. And the values of single-detector 3D-DTS technique were 9.7±8.9 mm, 9.8±8.8 mm, 10.0±9.7 mm, 3.9±2.7 mm and 2.2±1.3 mm, respectively. Conclusion: The dual-detector phase-matched DTS technique substantially improves the tumor localization accuracy, which can be applied to real-time intra-treatment lung tumor localization. The research was funded by the National Institutes of Health Grant No. R01-CA184173 and a grant from Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Diverse Model Projections of Future Extreme El Niño

The majority of future projections in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) show more frequent exceedances of the 5 mm day -1 rainfall threshold in the eastern equatorial Pacific rainfall during El Niño, previously described in the literature as an increase in “extreme El Niño events”; however, these exceedance frequencies vary widely across models, and in some projections actually decrease. Here we combine single-model large ensemble simulations with phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to diagnose the mechanisms for these differences. The sensitivity of precipitation to local SST anomalies increases consistently across CMIP-class models, tending to amplify extreme El Niño occurrence; however, changes to the magnitude of ENSO-related SST variability can drastically influence the results, indicating that understanding changes to SST variability remains imperative. Future El Niño rainfall intensifies most in models with 1) larger historical cold SST biases in the central equatorial Pacific, which inhibit future increases in local convective cloud shading, enabling more local warming; and 2) smaller historical warm SST biases in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, which enhance future reductions in stratus cloud, enabling more local warming. Additionally, these competing mechanisms complicate efforts to determine whether CMIP5 models under- or overestimate the future impacts of climate change on El Niño rainfall and its global impacts. However, the relation between future projections and historical biases suggests the possibility of using observable metrics as “emergent constraints” on future extreme El Niño, and a proof of concept using SSTA variance, precipitation sensitivity to SST, and regional SST trends is presented.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Induced seismicity potential based on probabilistic geomechanics for the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE project

Although geologic carbon sequestration projects have yet to induce — or may never induce — a damaging earthquake, experiences from other deep injection industries such as hydraulic fracturing, enhanced geothermal systems, and saltwater disposal suggest that effective quantitative seismic risk assessment is necessary for deep saline carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects. One such imminent CCS project is the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III program. We use Monte Carlo probabilistic geomechanical analyses combined with observations of the geologic and operational parameters of the San Juan Basin site and suggest that this project is of low-induced seismic risk. The primary analysis is split into four sections. First, we assess the literature for faults and past seismicity, and at least five faulting scenarios are directly relevant. Second, we develop and calibrate an integrated earth model for the project site. Third, we perform Monte Carlo simulations that consider reasonable uncertainties of the geomechanical parameters. Of five tested faulting scenarios, only one presents high Coulomb failure functions, but fourth, we determine the risk to be low based on the combined lack of historical seismicity, the geologic framework of the faulting scenario, and the presence of saltwater injection at the same depth as the proposed supercritical carbon dioxide injection. The most sensitive parameters in the geomechanical calculations are the fault dip and the coefficient of friction. The least sensitive are the fault strike and the orientation of the maximum horizontal principal stress.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections

Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Dixie Valley Engineered Geothermal System Exploration Methodology Project, Baseline Conceptual Model Report

The Engineered Geothermal System (EGS) Exploration Methodology Project is developing an exploration approach for EGS through the integration of geoscientific data. The overall project area is 2500km2 with the Calibration Area (Dixie Valley Geothermal Wellfield) being about 170km2. The Final Scientific Report (FSR) is submitted in two parts (I and II). FSR part I presents (1) an assessment of the readily available public domain data and some proprietary data provided by terra-gen power, llc, (2) a re-interpretation of these data as required, (3) an exploratory geostatistical data analysis, (4) the baseline geothermal conceptual model, and (5) the EGS favorability/trust mapping. The conceptual model presented applies to both the hydrothermal system and EGS in the Dixie Valley region. FSR Part II presents (1) 278 new gravity stations; (2) enhanced gravity-magnetic modeling; (3) 42 new ambient seismic noise survey stations; (4) an integration of the new seismic noise data with a regional seismic network; (5) a new methodology and approach to interpret this data; (5) a novel method to predict rock type and temperature based on the newly interpreted data; (6) 70 new magnetotelluric (MT) stations; (7) an integrated interpretation of the enhanced MT data set; (8) the results of a 308 station soil CO2 gas survey; (9) new conductive thermal modeling in the project area; (10) new convective modeling in the Calibration Area; (11) pseudo-convective modeling in the Calibration Area; (12) enhanced data implications and qualitative geoscience correlations at three scales (a) Regional, (b) Project, and (c) Calibration Area; (13) quantitative geostatistical exploratory data analysis; and (14) responses to nine questions posed in the proposal for this investigation. Enhanced favorability/trust maps were not generated because there was not a sufficient amount of new, fully-vetted (see below) rock type, temperature, and stress data. The enhanced seismic data did generate a new method to infer rock type and temperature (However, in the opinion of the Principal Investigator for this project, this new methodology needs to be tested and evaluated at other sites in the Basin and Range before it is used to generate the referenced maps. As in the baseline conceptual model, the enhanced findings can be applied to both the hydrothermal system and EGS in the Dixie Valley region).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗
DOE OSTI2012

Hualapai Wind Project Feasibility Report

The Hualapai Department of Planning and Economic Development, with funding assistance from the U.S. Department of Energy, Tribal Energy Program, with the aid of six consultants has completed the four key prerequisites as follows: 1. Identify the site area for development and its suitability for construction. 2. Determine the wind resource potential for the identified site area. 3. Determine the electrical transmission and interconnection feasibility to get the electrical power produced to the marketplace. 4. Complete an initial permitting and environmental assessment to determine the feasibility for getting the project permitted. Those studies indicated a suitable wind resource and favorable conditions for permitting and construction. The permitting and environmental study did not reveal any fatal flaws. A review of the best power sale opportunities indicate southern California has the highest potential for obtaining a PPA that may make the project viable. Based on these results, the recommendation is for the Hualapai Tribal Nation to move forward with attracting a qualified wind developer to work with the Tribe to move the project into the second phase - determining the reality factors for developing a wind project. a qualified developer will bid to a utility or negotiate a PPA to make the project viable for financing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

White Paper on the Use of Team Calendars with the JIRA Issue Tracking System and Confluence Collaboration Tools for the xLPR Project

ORNL was tasked by xLPR project management to propose a team calendar for use within the xLPR consortium. Among various options that were considered, the approach judged by ORNL to best fit the needs of the xLPR project is presented in this document. The Atlassian Team Calendars plug-in used with the Confluence collaboration tool was recommended for several reasons, including the advantage that it provides for a tight integration between Confluence (found at https://xlpr.ornl.gov/wiki ) and xLPR s JIRA issue tracking system (found at https://xlpr.ornl.gov/jira ). This document is divided into two parts. The first part (Sections 1-6) consists of the white paper, which highlights some of the ways that Team Calendars can improve com mun ication between xLPR project managers, group leads, and team members when JIRA is applied for both issue tracking and change-management activities. Specific points emphasized herein are as follows: The Team Calendar application greatly enhances the added value that the JIRA and Confluence tools bring to the xLPR Project. The Team Calendar can improve com mun ication between xLPR project managers, group leads, and team members when JIRA is applied for both issue tracking and change-management activities. The Team Calendar works across different email tools such as Outlook 2011, Outlook 2010, Outlook 2007, Google Calendars and Mac s iCalendar to name a few. xLPR users can now access the wiki Confluence (with embedded Team Calendars) directly from JIRA without having to re-validate their login. The second part consists of an Annex (Section 7), which describes how users can subscribe to Team Calendars from different calendar applications. Specific instructions are given in the Annex that describe how to Import xLPR Team Calendar to Outlook Version Office 2010 Import xLPR Team Calendar to Outlook Version Office 2007 Subscribe to Team Calendar from Google Calendar The reader is directed to Section 4 for instructions on adding events to the Team Calendar or accessing ORNL staff for assistance with such additions. To seek help with your questions and problems regarding the content of this document, please contact Hilda Klasky at klaskyhb@ornl.gov

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Global Threat Reduction Initiative Fuel Thermo-Physical Characterization Project: Sample Management Plan

This sample management plan provides guidelines for sectioning, preparation, acceptance criteria, analytical path, and end-of-life disposal for the fuel element segments utilized in the Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI), Fuel Thermo-Physical Characterization Project. The Fuel Thermo-Physical Characterization Project is tasked with analysis of irradiated Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) Molybdenum (U-Mo) fuel element samples to support the GTRI conversion program. Sample analysis may include optical microscopy (OM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fuel-surface interface analysis, gas pycnometry (density) measurements, laser flash analysis (LFA), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetry and differential thermal analysis with mass spectroscopy (TG /DTA-MS), Inductively Coupled Plasma Spectrophotometry (ICP), alpha spectroscopy, and Thermal Ionization Mass Spectroscopy (TIMS). The project will utilize existing Radiochemical Processing Laboratory (RPL) operating, technical, and administrative procedures for sample receipt, processing, and analyses. Test instructions (TIs), which are documents used to provide specific details regarding the implementation of an existing RPL approved technical or operational procedure, will also be used to communicate to staff project specific parameters requested by the Principal Investigator (PI). TIs will be developed, reviewed, and issued in accordance with the latest revision of the RPL-PLN-700, RPL Operations Plan. Additionally, the PI must approve all project test instructions and red-line changes to test instructions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2014

Coastal Ohio Wind Project for Reduced Barriers to Deployment of Offshore Wind Energy

The Coastal Ohio Wind Project was created to establish the viability of wind turbines on the coastal and offshore regions of Northern Ohio. The project’s main goal was to improve operational unit strategies used for environmental impact assessment of offshore turbines on lake wildlife by optimizing and fusing data from the multi-instrument surveillance system and providing an engineering analysis of potential design/operational alternatives for offshore wind turbines. The project also developed a general economic model for offshore WTG deployment to quantify potential revenue losses due to wind turbine shutdown related to ice and avian issues. In a previous phase of this project (Award Number: DE-FG36-06GO86096), we developed a surveillance system that was used to collect different parameters such as passage rates, flight paths, flight directions, and flight altitudes of nocturnal migrating species, movements of birds and bats, and bird calls for assessing patterns and peak passage rates during migration. To derive such parameters we used thermal IR imaging cameras, acoustic recorders, and marine radar Furuno (XANK250), which was coupled with a XIR3000B digitizing card from Russell Technologies and open source radR processing software. The integration yielded a development of different computational techniques and methods, which we further developed and optimized as a combined surveillance system. To accomplish this task we implemented marine radar calibration, optimization of processing parameters, and fusion of the multi-sensor data in order to make inferences about the potential avian targets. The main goal of the data fusion from the multi-sensor environment was aimed at reduction of uncertainties while providing acceptable confidence levels with detailed information about the migration patterns. Another component comprised of an assessment of wind resources in a near lake environment and an investigation of the effectiveness of ice coating materials to mitigate adverse effects of ice formation on wind turbine structures. Firstly, a Zephir LiDAR system was acquired and installed at Woodlands School in Huron, Ohio, which is located near Lake Erie. Wind resource data were obtained at ten measurement heights, 200m, 150m, 100m, 80m, 60m, 40m, 38m, 30m, 20m, and 10m. The Woodlands School’s wind turbine anemometer also measured the wind speed at the hub height. These data were collected for approximately one year. The hub anemometer data correlated well with the LiDAR wind speed measurements at the same height. The data also showed that on several days different power levels were recorded by the turbine at the same wind speed as indicated by the hub anemometer. The corresponding LiDAR data showed that this difference can be attributed to variability in the wind over the turbine rotor swept area, which the hub anemometer could not detect. The observation suggests that single point hub wind velocity measurements are inadequate to accurately estimate the power generated by a turbine at all times since the hub wind speed is not a good indicator of the wind speed over the turbine rotor swept area when winds are changing rapidly. To assess the effectiveness of ice coatings to mitigate the impact of ice on turbine structures, a closed-loop icing research tunnel (IRT) was designed and constructed. By controlling the temperature, air speed, water content and liquid droplet size, the tunnel enabled consistent and repeatable ice accretion under a variety of conditions with temperatures between approximately 0°C and -20°C and wind speeds up to 40 miles per hour in the tunnel’s test section. The tunnel’s cooling unit maintained the tunnel temperature within ±0.2°C. The coatings evaluated in the study were Boyd Coatings Research Company’s CRC6040R3, MicroPhase Coatings Inc.’s PhaseBreak TP, ESL and Flex coatings. Similar overall performance was observed in all coatings tested in that water droplets form on the test articles beginning at the stagnation region and spreading in the downstream direction in time. When comparing ice accumulation characteristics for the four coatings tested, for ice thickness during accumulation the CRC6040R3 had the least, followed by the ESL, Flex, and TP. However, when comparing the coatings’ ability to reduce ice adhesion, the Flex showed the highest adhesion reduction, followed by the ESL, TP and CRC 6040R3 coatings. The ice accumulated on the Flex coated surface shed under gravity when rotated 90 degrees following the tests while the other coatings required application of varying degrees of force to remove the ice. In conclusion, the ice coatings tested were not sufficient in preventing ice accumulation on all surfaces. However, Flex coating shows promise in mitigating ice on the rotor blades under the gravitational and centrifugal forces. Only the effect of gravity in shedding the ice was considered in this study. Further research will be needed to evaluate this coating on rotating blades in the icing tunnel to characterize its effectiveness. Lastly, the development of economic feasibility models used existing approaches adapted for offshore deployment in marine settings to one more suitable for Lake Erie deployment. Two different wind turbine models were tested and dynamic return on investment (ROI) model scenarios were generated. For the purpose of estimating power generation three bladed wind turbines of 3 MW capacity were selected including Model1- Leitwind LTW101-3.000-kW and Model2-Vostro V90-3.0 MW. The analysis were based on the revenue aspect of decision making of deploying wind turbines in the Ohio coastal region. The installation cost, maintenance and operational aspects were disregarded due to unavailability of data. The adjusted varying price (residential and industrial sector) and projected future price of electricity in different years suggested that the Leitwind model could generate $\$ $32.4 million of revenue in 25 years if the supply electricity is in the residential sector, while it would be $\$ $14.7million if the supply is in the industrial sector. For the Vostro model these figures are $\$ $28.6 million for residential sector and $\$ $12.9 million for industrial sector for 25 years.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

CMI Report on Project 2.3.2 Activities – 09/2013 to 03/2014

The objective of this project is to develop and apply a Materials-Design Simulator (MDS) for predicting thermodynamic phase stability, structural and magnetic properties, and performance of complex REE-based materials. We seek to create a knowledge base for identifying alloys with desirable properties. The aim of this project is to develop an efficient infrastructure for creating a knowledge base for identifying new alloys with enhance performance and reduced REE-content, and for managing material data acquired within the Focus Area 2 and with input from Focus Area 4. This project integrates two approaches to alloy process modeling that so far have been developed largely independently: (1) electronic structure theory of alloys and (2) semi-empirical methods of computational thermodynamics and kinetics (such as CALPHAD). This project will greatly benefit from experimental data on phase characterization, heat of formation (from differential scanning calorimetry), and magnetism as a function of pressure to support the search for REE substitutes without compromising on target properties for applications. The MDS will be also greatly enhanced through the use of state-of-the-art methods of materials informatics and data mining. The MDS will facilitate examination of research results, discovery of trends, identification of knowledge gaps, and even possibly underlying scientific principles, MDS will be developed and assembled for gathering, accessing, and analyzing available material data generated externally and within CMI projects by experimentalists and modelers. The data in our knowledge base will be accessible to all hub participants via a web interface and underlying engine that will allow targeted searches through heterogeneous data on composition, property and structure spaces encompassing all contributed data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Waste-to-Energy Cogeneration Project, Centennial Park

The Waste-to-Energy Cogeneration Project at Centennial Park has allowed methane from the closed Centennial landfill to export excess power into the the local utility’s electric grid for resale. This project is part of a greater brownfield reclamation project to the benefit of the residents of Munster and the general public. Installation of a gas-to-electric generator and waste-heat conversion unit take methane byproduct and convert it into electricity at the rate of about 103,500 Mwh/year for resale to the local utility. The sale of the electricity will be used to reduce operating budgets by covering the expenses for streetlights and utility bills. The benefits of such a project are not simply financial. Munster’s Waste-to Energy Cogeneration Project at Centennial Park will reduce the community’s carbon footprint in an amount equivalent to removing 1,100 cars from our roads, conserving enough electricity to power 720 homes, planting 1,200 acres of trees, or recycling 2,000 tons of waste instead of sending it to a landfill.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Livingston Parish Landfill Methane Recovery Project (Feasibility Study)

The Woodside Landfill is owned by Livingston Parish, Louisiana and is operated under contract by Waste Management of Louisiana LLC. This public owner/private operator partnership is commonplace in the solid waste industry today. The landfill has been in operation since approximately 1988 and has a permitted capacity of approximately 41 million cubic yards. Based on an assumed in-place waste density of 0.94 ton per cubic yard, the landfill could have an expected design capacity of 39.3 million tons. The landfill does have an active landfill gas collection and control system (LFGCCS) in place because it meets the minimum thresholds for the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS). The initial LFGCS was installed prior to 2006 and subsequent phases were installed in 2007 and 2010. The Parish received a grant from the United States Department of Energy in 2009 to evaluate the potential for landfill gas recovery and utilization at the Woodside Landfill. This includes a technical and economic feasibility study of a project to install a landfill gas to energy (LFGTE) plant and to compare alternative technologies. The LFGTE plant can take the form of on-site electrical generation, a direct use/medium Btu option, or a high-Btu upgrade technology. The technical evaluation in Section 2 of this report concludes that landfill gas from the Woodside landfill is suitable for recovery and utilization. The financial evaluations in sections 3, 4, and 5 of this report provide financial estimates of the returns for various utilization technologies. The report concludes that the most economically viable project is the Electricity Generation option, subject to the Parish’s ability and willingness to allocate adequate cash for initial capital and/or to obtain debt financing. However, even this option does not present a solid return: by our estimates, there is a 19 year simple payback on the electricity generation option. All of the energy recovery options discussed in this report economically stressed. The primary reason for this is the recent fundamental shift in the US energy landscape. Abundant supplies of natural gas have put downward pressure on any project that displaces natural gas or natural gas substitutes. Moreover, this shift appears long-term as domestic supplies for natural gas may have been increased for several hundred years. While electricity prices are less affected by natural gas prices than other thermal projects, they are still significantly affected since much of the power in the Entergy cost structure is driven by natural gas-fired generation. Consequently, rates reimbursed by the power company based on their avoided cost structure also face downward pressure over the near and intermediate term. In addition, there has been decreasing emphasis on environmental concerns regarding the production of thermal energy, and as a result both the voluntary and mandatory markets that drive green attribute prices have softened significantly over the past couple of years. Please note that energy markets are constantly changing due to fundamental supply and demand forces, as well as from external forces such as regulations and environmental concerns. At any point in the future, the outlook for energy prices may change and could deem either the electricity generation or pipeline injection project more feasible. This report is intended to serve as the primary background document for subsequent decisions made at Parish staff and governing board levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗