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NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Gravity Wave Momentum Flux Measurement Capabilities by Meteor Radars Having Different Transmitter Power and Antenna Configurations

Measurement capabilities of five meteor radars are assessed and compared to determine how well radars having different transmitted power and antenna configurations perform in defining mean winds, tidal amplitudes, and gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes. The five radars include two new-generation meteor radars on Tierra del Fuego, Argentina (53.8 deg S) and on King George Island in the Antarctic (62.1 deg S) and conventional meteor radars at Socorro, New Mexico (34.1 deg N, 106.9 deg W), Bear Lake Observatory, Utah (approx 41.9 deg N, 111.4 deg W), and Yellowknife, Canada (62.5 deg N, 114.3 deg W). Our assessment employs observed meteor distributions for June of 2009, 2010, or 2011 for each radar and a set of seven test motion fields including various superpositions of mean winds, constant diurnal tides, constant and variable semidiurnal tides, and superposed GWs having various amplitudes, scales, periods, directions of propagation, momentum fluxes, and intermittencies. Radars having higher power and/or antenna patterns yielding higher meteor counts at small zenith angles perform well in defining monthly and daily mean winds, tidal amplitudes, and GW momentum fluxes, though with expected larger uncertainties in the daily estimates. Conventional radars having lower power and a single transmitting antenna are able to describe monthly mean winds and tidal amplitudes reasonably well, especially at altitudes having the highest meteor counts. They also provide qualitative estimates of GW momentum fluxes at the altitudes having the highest meteor counts; however, these estimates are subject to uncertainties of approx 20 to 50% and uncertainties rapidly become excessive at higher and lower altitudes. Estimates of all quantities degrade somewhat for more complex motion fields.

Fritts, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Applications of MODIS Fluorescent Line Height Measurements to Monitor Water Quality Trends and Algal Bloom Activity

Recent advances in satellite and airborne remote sensing, such as improvements in sensor and algorithm calibrations, processing techniques and atmospheric correction procedures have provided for increased coverage of remote-sensing, ocean-color products for coastal regions. In particular, for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensor calibration updates, improved aerosol retrievals and new aerosol models has led to improved atmospheric correction algorithms for turbid waters and have improved the retrieval of ocean color in coastal waters. This has opened the way for studying ocean phenomena and processes at finer spatial scales, such as the interactions at the land-sea interface, trends in coastal water quality and algal blooms. Human population growth and changes in coastal management practices have brought about significant changes in the concentrations of organic and inorganic, particulate and dissolved substances entering the coastal ocean. There is increasing concern that these inputs have led to declines in water quality and have increase local concentrations of phytoplankton, which cause harmful algal blooms. In two case studies we present MODIS observations of fluorescence line height (FLH) to 1) assess trends in water quality for Tampa Bay, Florida and 2) illustrate seasonal and annual variability of algal bloom activity in Monterey Bay, California as well as document estuarine/riverine plume induced red tide events. In a comprehensive analysis of long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data and satellite imagery from Tampa Bay we assess the validity of the MODIS FLH product against chlorophyll-a and a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout a large optically complex estuarine system. A systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the relationship between FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a responds to varying conditions and to develop a near decadal trend in water quality changes. In situ monitoring locations that correlated well with satellite imagery were in depths greater than seven meters and were located over five kilometers from shore. Water quality parameter of total nitrogen, phosphorous, turbidity and biological oxygen demand had high correlations with these sites, as well. Satellite FLH estimates show improving water quality from 2003-2007 with a slight decline up through 2011. Dinoflagellate blooms in Monterey Bay, California (USA) have recently increased in frequency and intensity. Nine years of MODIS FLH observations are used to describe the annual and seasonal variability of bloom activity within the Bay. Three classes of MODIS algorithms were correlated against in situ chlorophyll measurements. The FLH algorithm provided the most robust estimate of bloom activity. Elevated concentrations of phytoplankton were evident during the months of August-November, a period during which increased occurrences of dinoflagellate blooms have been observed in situ. Seasonal patterns of FLH show the on- and offshore movement of areas of high phytoplankton biomass between oceanographic seasons. Higher concentrations of phytoplankton are also evident in the vicinity of the land-based nutrient sources and outflows, and the cyclonic bay-wide circulation can transport these nutrients to the northern Bay bloom incubation region. Both of these case studies illustrate the utility MODIS FLH observations in supporting management decisions in coastal and estuarine waters.

Fischer, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2013

Spatial Correlations of Anomaly Time Series of AIRS Version-6 Land Surface Skin Temperatures with the Nino-4 Index

The AIRS Science Team Version-6 data set is a valuable resource for meteorological studies. Quality Controlled earth's surface skin temperatures are produced on a 45 km x 45 km spatial scale under most cloud cover conditions. The same retrieval algorithm is used for all surface types under all conditions. This study used eleven years of AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature and cloud cover products to show that land surface skin temperatures have decreased significantly in some areas and increased significantly in other areas over the period September 2002 through August 2013. These changes occurred primarily at 1:30 PM but not at 1:30 AM. Cooling land areas contained corresponding increases in cloud cover over this time period, with the reverse being true for warming land areas. The cloud cover anomaly patterns for a given month are affected significantly by El Nino/La Nina activity, and anomalies in cloud cover are a driving force behind anomalies in land surface skin temperature.

Spatial correlations↗
NASA NTRS2021

Gravity Wave Observations by the Mars Science Laboratory REMS Pressure Sensor and Comparison with Mesoscale Atmospheric Modeling with MarsWRF

Surface pressure measurements on Mars have revealed a wide variety of atmospheric phenomena. The Mars Science Laboratory Rover Environmental Monitoring Station pressure sensor dataset is now the longest duration record of surface pressure on Mars. We use the first 2580 martian sols, nearly 4 Mars years,of measurements to identify atmospheric pressure waves with periods of tens of minutes to hours using wavelet analysis on residual pressure after the tidal harmonics are removed. We find these waves have a clear diurnal cycle with strongest activity in the early morning and late evening and a seasonal cycle with the strongest waves in the second half of the martian year (Ls= 180-360°). The strongest such waves of the entire mission occurred during the Mars Year 34 global dust storm. Comparable atmospheric waves are identified using atmospheric modeling with the MarsWRF general circulation model in a “nested” high spatial resolution mode. With the support of the modeling, we find these waves best fit the expected properties of inertia-gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths of O(100s) of km. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Measuring air pressure from the surface of Mars has revealed a wide variety of atmospheric phenomena. The Curiosity rover's record or surface air pressure is now the longest yet made on Mars.We use the first ~8 years of Curiosity's pressure observations to look for atmospheric waves with periods of tens of minutes to hours. We find these waves have a clear pattern in their daily behavior with the strongest activity in the early morning and late evening and a seasonal cycle with the strongest waves in the second half of the martian year (Northern hemisphere fall and winter). The strongest such waves occurred in 2018 during a global dust storm. We find comparable waves in atmospheric modeling. With the support of modeling, we find these waves best fit the expected properties of buoyancy waves forced by airflow over topography with horizontal wavelengths of 100-1000 km.

Scott D Guzewich↗
DOE OSTI2021

The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Procedure and Preliminary Results

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado's "Can Do Colorado" initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, start in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The non-motorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO2. Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Satellite Altimetry, Ocean Circulation, and Data Assimilation

Ocean circulation is a critical factor in determining the Earth's climate. Satellite altimetry has been proven a powerful technique for measuring the height of the sea surface for the study of global ocean circulation dynamics. A major objective of my research is to investigate the utility of altimeter data for ocean circulation studies. The 6 years' data record of TOPEX/POSEIDON have been analyzed to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of large-scale ocean variability. A major result obtained in 1998 is the discovery of large-scale oscillations in sea level with a period of 25 days in the Argentine Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean (see diagram). They exhibit a dipole pattern with counterclockwise rotational propagation around the Zapiola Rise (centered at 45S and 317E), a small seamount in the abyssal plain of the basin. The peak-to-trough amplitude is about 10 cm over a distance of 500-1000 km. The amplitude of these oscillations has large seasonal-to-interannual variations. The period and rotational characteristics of these oscillations are remarkably similar to the observations made by two current meters deployed near the ocean bottom in the region. What TOPEX/POSEIDON has detected apparently are manifestations of the movement of the entire water column (barotropic motion). The resultant transport variation is estimated to be about 50 x 10(exp 6) cubic M/S, which is about 50% of the total water transport in the region. Preliminary calculations suggest that these oscillations are topographically trapped waves. A numerical model of the South Atlantic is used to investigate the nature of and causes for these waves. A very important property of sea surface height is that it is directly related to the surface geostrophic velocity, which is related to deep ocean circulation through the density field. Therefore altimetry observations are not only useful for determining the surface circulation but also for revealing information about the deep ocean. Another objective of my research is to investigate the extent of information one can infer about the deep ocean from altimetric observations. The approach is data assimilation by ocean models. The objective is to develop a modeling/data assimilation system that will produce estimates of the 3-dimensional state of the ocean for the entire duration of the TOPEX/POSEIDON Mission.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗
NASA NTRS1985

A search for long-lived velocity fields at the solar poles

A search has been made in the polar regions of the sun for large-scale (50-200 Mm) velocity fields with lifetimes of the order of the solar rotation period (approximately equal to or greater than 30 days). The observations show that any such large-scale, long-lived velocity patterns in the polar regions must have an amplitude less than 5 m/s. Marginally significant detections (at the 2-3 sigma level) were made of two kinds of structures with amplitudes of order 3 m/s. One has a rotation period approximately 38 days (close to the polar rotation period at the sun's surface), and a scale approximately 150 Mm; the other has a period approximately 24 days and a scale approximately 100 Mm. Tentatively, the first structure is interpreted as being of supergranular origin. The second structure is interpreted as the overshooting of the dominant convective mode of the lower solar convection zone - the giant granulation.

Durney, B. R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Periodicities in the occurrence of aurora as indicators of solar variability

A compilation of records of the aurora observed in China from the Time of the Legends (2000 - 3000 B.C.) to the mid-18th century has been used to infer the frequencies and strengths of solar activity prior to modern times. A merging of this analysis with auroral and solar activity patterns during the last 200 years provides basically continuous information about solar activity during the last 2000 years. The results show periodicities in solar activity that contain average components with a long period (approx. 412 years), three middle periods (approx. 38 years, approx. 77 years, and approx. 130 years), and the well known short period (approx. 11 years).

Nian-Zu, D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Plasma and magnetic field variations in the distant magnetotail associated with near-earth substorm effects

Examination of many individual event periods in the ISEE 3 deep-tail data set has suggested that magnetospheric substorms produce a characteristic pattern of effects in the distant magnetotail. During the growth, or tail-energy-storage phase of substorms, the magnetotail appears to grow diametrically in size, often by many earth radii. Subsequently, after the substorm expansive phase onset at earth, the distant tail undergoes a sequence of plasma, field, and energetic-particle variations as large-scale plasmoids move rapidly down the tail following their disconnection from the near-earth plasma sheet. ISEE 3 data are appropriate for the study of these effects since the spacecraft remained fixed within the nominal tail location for long periods. Using newly available auroral electrojet indices (AE and AL) and Geo particle data to time substorm onsets at earth, superposed epoch analyses of ISEE 3 and near-earth data prior to, and following, substorm expansive phase onsets have been performed. These analyses quantify and extend substantially the understanding of the deep-tail pattern of response to global substorm-induced dynamical effects.

Baker, D. N.↗
DOE OSTI2015

MODELING OF REFLECTIVE PROPAGATING SLOW-MODE WAVE IN A FLARING LOOP

Quasi-periodic propagating intensity disturbances have been observed in large coronal loops in extreme ultraviolet images over a decade, and are widely accepted to be slow magnetosonic waves. However, spectroscopic observations from Hinode/EIS revealed their association with persistent coronal upflows, making this interpretation debatable. We perform a 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic simulation to imitate the chromospheric evaporation and the following reflected patterns in a flare loop. Our model encompasses the corona, transition region, and chromosphere. We demonstrate that the quasi periodic propagating intensity variations captured by the synthesized Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly 131, 94 Å emission images match the previous observations well. With particle tracers in the simulation, we confirm that these quasi periodic propagating intensity variations consist of reflected slow mode waves and mass flows with an average speed of 310 km s{sup −1} in an 80 Mm length loop with an average temperature of 9 MK. With the synthesized Doppler shift velocity and intensity maps of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar Ultraviolet Measurement of Emitted Radiation Fe xix line emission, we confirm that these reflected slow mode waves are propagating waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Hydrodynamical simulations of nuclear rings in barred galaxies

Dust lanes, nuclear rings, and nuclear spirals are typical gas structures in the inner region of barred galaxies. Their shapes and properties are linked to the physical parameters of the host galaxy. We use high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations to study 2D gas flows in simple barred galaxy models. The nuclear rings formed in our simulations can be divided into two groups: one group is nearly round and the other is highly elongated. We find that roundish rings may not form when the bar pattern speed is too high or the bulge central density is too low. We also study the periodic orbits in our galaxy models, and find that the concept of inner Lindblad resonance (ILR) may be generalized by the extent of x{sub 2} orbits. All roundish nuclear rings in our simulations settle in the range of x{sub 2} orbits (or ILRs). However, knowing the resonances is insufficient to pin down the exact location of these nuclear rings. We suggest that the backbone of round nuclear rings is the x{sub 2} orbital family, i.e., round nuclear rings are allowed only in the radial range of x{sub 2} orbits. A round nuclear ring forms exactly at the radius where the residual angular momentum of infalling gas balances the centrifugal force, which can be described by a parameter f{sub ring} measured from the rotation curve. The gravitational torque on gas in high pattern speed models is larger, leading to a smaller ring size than in the low pattern speed models. Our result may have important implications for using nuclear rings to measure the parameters of real barred galaxies with 2D gas kinematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Structural and optical studies of CuO nanostructures

In the present study, copper oxide (CuO) nanostructures have been synthesized at 140 °C for different aging periods, 1, 24, 48 and 96 hrs by hydrothermal method to investigate their effects on structural and optical properties. The X-ray diffractometer (XRD) pattern indicates the pure phase formation of CuO and the particle size, calculated from XRD data, has been found to be increasing from 21 to 36 nm for the samples synthesized at different aging periods. Field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) analysis also shows that the average diameter and length of these rectangular nano flakes increases with increasing the aging periods. Moreover Raman spectrums also confirm the phase formation of CuO. The optical band gaps calculated through UV-visible spectroscopy are found to be decreasing from 2.92 to 2.69 eV with increase in aging periods, 1 to 96 hrs, respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Are continuum predictions of clustering chaotic?

Gas-solid multiphase flows are prone to develop an instability known as clustering. Two-fluid models, which treat the particulate phase as a continuum, are known to reproduce the qualitative features of this instability, producing highly-dynamic, spatiotemporal patterns. However, it is unknown whether such simulations are truly aperiodic or a type of complex periodic behavior. By showing that the system possesses a sensitive dependence on initial conditions and a positive largest Lyapunov exponent, λ 1 ≈1/τ, we provide a tentative answer: continuum predictions of clustering are chaotic. We further demonstrate that the chaotic behavior is dimensionally dependent, a conclusion which unifies previous results and strongly suggests that the chaotic behavior is not a direct consequence of the fundamental kinematic instability, but requires a secondary (inherently multidimensional) instability. Granular matter is a collection of discrete, interacting solid particles which, like classic (molecular) matter, can be generally classified into one of three states:1 (i) under static conditions granular heaps or piles can sustain gravity-induced stress and behave like a solid; (ii) dense granular flows characterized by enduring and multi-particle contacts behave similarly to a fluid; and (iii) rapid granular flows characterized by instantaneous contacts described as a granular gas. However, it is worth noting that all three granular states are only superficially similar to their molecular counterparts due to the dissipative nature of particle-particle contacts (inelasticity, friction, etc.). In industrial operations, rapid (collision-dominated) granular flows are often encountered in devices in which the particles are fluidized by a gas; such gas-solid flows are the focus of this work. Rapid gas-solid flows are prone to an instability termed clustering in which particles tend to form spatially inhomogeneous patterns of high and low concentrations. Continuum or two-fluid models (TFM) have long been known to be able to predict the qualitative nature of the clustering instability and more recent quantitative assessments have also shown promising results. However, it is yet unknown whether or not such predictions are chaotic. We take a first step in answering this question by simulating fluidization in an unbounded domain and calculating a positive largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), thereby indicating that continuum predictions of clustering are in fact chaotic. Further, we show that chaotic behavior may be reduced to periodic behavior by constraining the dimensionality of the system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

Occupancy schedules learning process through a data mining framework

Building occupancy is a paramount factor in building energy simulations. Specifically, lighting, plug loads, HVAC equipment utilization, fresh air requirements and internal heat gain or loss greatly depends on the level of occupancy within a building. Developing the appropriate methodologies to describe and reproduce the intricate network responsible for human-building interactions are needed. Extrapolation of patterns from big data streams is a powerful analysis technique which will allow for a better understanding of energy usage in buildings. A three-step data mining framework is applied to discover occupancy patterns in office spaces. First, a data set of 16 offices with 10 minute interval occupancy data, over a two year period is mined through a decision tree model which predicts the occupancy presence. Then a rule induction algorithm is used to learn a pruned set of rules on the results from the decision tree model. Finally, a cluster analysis is employed in order to obtain consistent patterns of occupancy schedules. Furthermore, the identified occupancy rules and schedules are representative as four archetypal working profiles that can be used as input to current building energy modeling programs, such as EnergyPlus or IDA-ICE, to investigate impact of occupant presence on design, operation and energy use in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Short incubation periods of atypical H-type BSE in cattle with EK211 and KK211 prion protein genotypes after intracranial inoculation

In 2006, a case of atypical H-type BSE (H-BSE) was found to be associated with a germline mutation in the PRNP gene that resulted in a lysine substitution for glutamic acid at codon 211 (E211K). The E211K amino acid substitution in cattle is analogous to E200K in humans, which is associated with the development of genetic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD). In the present study, we aimed to determine the effect of the EK211 prion protein genotype on incubation time in cattle inoculated with the agent of H-BSE; to characterize the molecular profile of H-BSE in KK211 and EK211 genotype cattle; and to assess the influence of serial passage on BSE strain. Eight cattle, representing three PRNP genotype groups (EE211, EK211, and KK211), were intracranially inoculated with the agent of H-BSE originating from either a case in a cow with the EE211 prion protein genotype or a case in a cow with E211K amino acid substitution. All inoculated animals developed clinical disease; post-mortem samples were collected, and prion disease was confirmed through enzyme immunoassay, anti-PrP Sc immunohistochemistry, and western blot. Western blot molecular analysis revealed distinct patterns in a steer with KK211 H-BSE compared to EK211 and EE211 cattle. Incubation periods were significantly shorter in cattle with the EK211 and KK211 genotypes compared to the EE211 genotype. Inoculum type did not significantly influence the incubation period. This study demonstrates a shorter incubation period for H-BSE in cattle with the K211 genotype in both the homozygous and heterozygous forms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Observational Constraints on the Effective Climate Sensitivity from the Historical Period

The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate sensitivity (Shist). However, such an estimate is affected by uncertainty in the radiative forcing, particularly aerosols, over the historical period. Here, we make use of detection and attribution techniques to derive the surface air temperature and ocean warming that can be attributed directly to greenhouse gas increases. These serve as inputs to a simple energy budget to infer the likelihood of Shist in response to observed greenhouse gases increases over two time periods (1862–2012 and 1955–2012). The benefit of using greenhouse gas attributable quantities is that they are not subject to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing (other than uncertainty in the attribution to greenhouse gas versus aerosol forcing not captured by the multi-model aerosol response pattern). The resulting effective climate sensitivity estimate, Shist, ranges from 1.3 °Cto 3.1 °C(5%–95% range) over the full instrumental period (1862–2012) for our best estimate, and gets slightly wider when considering further uncertainties. This estimate increases to 1.7 °C–4.6 °C if using the shorter period (1955–2012).We also evaluate the climate model simulated surface air temperature and ocean heat content increase in response to greenhouse gas forcing over the same periods, and compare them with the observationally-constrained values.We find that that the ocean warming simulated in greenhouse gas only simulations in models considered here is consistent with that attributed to greenhouse gas increases from observations, while one model simulates more greenhouse gas-induced surface air warming than observed. However, other models with sensitivity outside our range show greenhouse gas warming that is consistent with that attributed in observations, emphasising that feedbacks during the historical period may differ from the feedbacks at CO2 doubling and from those at true equilibrium.

Tokarska, Katarzyna B↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Adler, Robert F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ground Motion Models (GMMs) Improvements Using Earthquake Simulations on High Performance Computers

A computationally efficient simulation platform was developed that can provide representative synthetic ground motions from crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using 3D modeling and high-performance computing. The main objective was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of exiting ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-5Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. As part of a strategy for selecting a reginal velocity model and validation of developed rupture modeling technique, ground motions from the moment magnitude Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma, and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes were simulated. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model. Saikia’s model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for CEUS region. The proposed 3D model includes lateral variations added to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors. Comparisons of the simulations with recordings of both earthquakes demonstrated the reliability of our deterministic simulation approach while emphasizing the importance of including small-scale variability in the regional velocity model needed to reproduce the observed high-frequency wave scattering effects. As part of validation analysis, comparisons with different GMMs for a Mw6.5 earthquake in the CESUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. Initial investigations of within-event and between-event ground motion variabilities for Mw6.5 scenario earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, suggest that they are strongly related to spatial slip and slip rate variations, average rupture velocity, rupture area and rupture initiation location. For certain scenarios we found that the ground motion variability observed at near-fault distances (< 5 km) also persists at longer distances. Regardless of the rupture scenario, the simulated ground motion tends to fully saturate at short distances and for all periods. The near-fault saturation has to do with the attenuation of waves propagating along the fault and local rupture radiation pattern that also contribute to stronger ground motion variation at such distances. Analysis of effects of rupture initiation location suggest that the peak ground motion (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA) can be quite variable due to rupture directivity effects. Such effects are stronger at periods longer than 1s. The effect of the 1D velocity models and surface topography on simulated ground motion were investigated by comparing three component synthetic seismograms computed at selected sites. Effect of surface topography was considered using the ratio between spectral accelerations simulated for two 1D models with flat surface topography and realistic model with surface topography. Overall, the topography slightly amplifies (by ~30%) the ground motion amplitude in the frequency range 1-3Hz. The effect of topography is more visible in the surface and coda waves portion of the seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗