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Dynamic Temporal Graph Sequence Data for Resilience-Oriented Distribution Network Reconfiguration

This dataset comprises temporal dynamic graph sequences generated from power grid simulations focused on grid reconfiguration to enhance resilience. The simulations model failure propagation under varying conditions, with nodes assigned distinct failure probabilities. For each time step, the dataset captures the evolution of node states (functional or failed) and features critical to grid operations, such as pv_output, load_profile, load_dispatch, dg_output, loss, and voltage. Node types include sources, normal loads, and nodes with specific equipment like PVs, micro turbines, or shunt capacitors. The dataset is structured to support the training of dynamic graph neural networks, facilitating research on node feature prediction and edge dynamics under failure scenarios. Three distinct configurations are included, providing a robust foundation for modeling power grid resilience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solvation structures of water in trihexyltetradecylphosphonium-orthoborate ionic liquids

Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to investigate effective interactions of isolated water molecules dispersed in trihexyltetradecylphosphonium-orthoborate ionic liquids (ILs). The intrinsic free energy changes in solvating one water molecule from gas phase into bulk IL matrices were estimated as a function of temperature, and thereafter, the calculations of potential of mean force between two dispersed water molecules within different IL matrices were performed using umbrella sampling simulations. The systematic analyses of local ionic microstructures, orientational preferences, probability and spatial distributions of dispersed water molecules around neighboring ionic species indicate their preferential coordinations to central polar segments in orthoborate anions. The effective interactions between two dispersed water molecules are partially or totally screened as their separation distance increases due to interference of ionic species in between. These computational results connect microscopic anionic structures with macroscopically and experimentally observed difficulty in completely removing water from synthesized IL samples and suggest that the introduction of hydrophobic groups to central polar segments and the formation of conjugated ionic structures in orthoborate anions can effectively reduce residual water content in the corresponding IL samples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quasi-Bell inequalities from symmetrized products of noncommuting qubit observables

Noncommuting observables cannot be simultaneously measured; however, under local hidden variable models, they must simultaneously hold premeasurement values, implying the existence of a joint probability distribution. We study the joint distributions of noncommuting observables on qubits, with possible criteria of positivity and the Fréchet bounds limiting the joint probabilities, concluding that the latter may be negative. We use symmetrization, justified heuristically and then more carefully via the Moyal characteristic function, to find the quantum operator corresponding to the product of noncommuting observables. This is then used to construct Quasi-Bell inequalities, Bell inequalities containing products of noncommuting observables, on two qubits. These inequalities place limits on the local hidden variable models that define joint probabilities for noncommuting observables. We also found that the Quasi-Bell inequalities have a quantum to classical violation as high as 3/2 on two qubit, higher than conventional Bell inequalities. Our result demonstrates the theoretical importance of noncommutativity in the nonlocality of quantum mechanics and provides an insightful generalization of Bell inequalities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Nuclear interference in dissociating of HD{sup +} in ultrashort laser fields

The dissociation dynamics of HD{sup +} molecules is studied theoretically by numerically solving the time-dependent Schroedinger equation in which the molecular vibrational and rotational degrees of freedom are included. Based on the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, the ground 1s{sigma}{sub g} state and the excited 2p{sigma}{sub u} state are taken into account, corresponding to two dissociative channels HD{sup +}{yields}D + H{sup +} and HD{sup +}{yields}H + D{sup +}, respectively. Two dissociative nuclear wave packets overlap and interfere after excited by two ultrashort laser pulses. The interference patterns can be controlled by varying the laser parameters and the dissociation probabilities are demonstrated for different laser fields. The kinetic energy-dependent distributions of the fragments are calculated using an asymptotic-flow expression in the momentum space. The branching ratio D{sup +}/(H{sup +} + D{sup +}), as a function of the delay time and the relative phase between two laser pulses, is also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Calculating Probability Densities with Homotopy and Applications to Particle Filters

In this work, we explore a homotopy sampling procedure and its generalization, loosely based on importance sampling, known as annealed importance sampling. The procedure makes use of a known probability distribution to find, via homotopy, the unknown normalization of a target distribution, as well as samples of the target distribution. We propose a reformulation of the method that leads to a rejection sampling alternative. Estimates of the error as a function of homotopy stages and sample averages are derived for the algorithmic version of the method. These estimates are useful in making computational efficiency decisions on how the calculation should proceed, given a computer architecture. Consideration is given to how the procedure can be adapted to Bayesian stationary and nonstationary estimation problems. The connection between homotopy sampling and thermodynamic integration is made. Emphasis is placed on the non-stationary problems, and in particular, on a sequential estimation technique known as particle filtering. It is shown that a modification of the particle filter framework to include the homotopy process can improve the computational robustness of particle filters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Defense Strategies for Asymmetric Networked Systems with Discrete Components

We consider infrastructures consisting of a network of systems, each composed of discrete components. The network provides the vital connectivity between the systems and hence plays a critical, asymmetric role in the infrastructure operations. The individual components of the systems can be attacked by cyber and physical means and can be appropriately reinforced to withstand these attacks. We formulate the problem of ensuring the infrastructure performance as a game between an attacker and a provider, who choose the numbers of the components of the systems and network to attack and reinforce, respectively. The costs and benefits of attacks and reinforcements are characterized using the sum-form, product-form and composite utility functions, each composed of a survival probability term and a component cost term. We present a two-level characterization of the correlations within the infrastructure: (i) the aggregate failure correlation function specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual system or network, and (ii) the survival probabilities of the systems and network satisfy first-order differential conditions that capture the component-level correlations using multiplier functions. We derive Nash equilibrium conditions that provide expressions for individual system survival probabilities and also the expected infrastructure capacity specified by the total number of operational components. We apply these results to derive and analyze defense strategies for distributed cloud computing infrastructures using cyber-physical models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probability characteristics of electrical noise in heterojunction light-emitting diodes

A hardware-software complex for measurements of the characteristics of electrical and optical noise in light-emitting diodes (LEDs) in the frequency range from 1 to 40 kHz is described. The electrical noise of several types of heterojunction-based LEDs are studied; these types include red-emission LEDs with AlInGaP/GaAs quantum wells and the green- and blue-emission LEDs with AlInGaN/SiC quantum wells are studied by the method of discrete samples. The spectra of all studied LEDs in the frequency range from 1 to 10 kHz have the form 1/f{sup {gamma}}. It is noteworthy that, for red-emission LEDs, the exponent {gamma} is significantly smaller than unity; this index is close to unity for the green- and blue-emission LEDs. The characteristic time of correlation of the noise of red-emission LEDs by several times exceeds the correlation times for the blue- and green-emission LEDs. It is shown that reduced functions of the amplitude distribution of the noise voltage are close to Gaussian functions with almost the same dispersion for all LED types.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

One-bond 13 C– 13 C spin-coupling constants in saccharides: a comparison of experimental and calculated values by density functional theory using solid-state 13 C NMR and X-ray crystallography

Methyl aldohexopyranosides were 13 C-labeled at contiguous carbons, crystallized, and studied by single-crystal X-ray crystallography and solid-state 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to examine the degree to which density functional theory (DFT) can calculate one-bond 13C–13C spin-coupling constants ( 1 J CC ) in saccharides with sufficient accuracy to permit their use in MA'AT analysis, a newly-reported hybrid DFT/NMR method that provides probability distributions of molecular torsion angles in solution (Zhang et al., J. Phys. Chem. B, 2017, 121, 3042–3058; Meredith et al., J. Chem. Inf. Model., 2022, 62, 3135–3141). Experimental 1 J CC values in crystalline samples of the doubly 13 C-labeled compounds were measured by solid-state 13 C NMR and compared to those calculated from five different DFT models: (1) 1 J CC values calculated from single structures identical to those observed in crystalline samples by X-ray crystallography (all atom refinement); (2) 1 J CC values calculated from the single structures in (1) but after Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR); (3) 1 J CC values calculated from the single structures in (1) after DFT-optimization of hydrogen atoms only; and (4 and 5) 1 J CC values calculated in rotamers of torsion angle θ 2 (C1–C2–O2–O2H) or ω(C4–C5–C6–O6) from which either specific or generalized parameterized equations were obtained and used to calculate 1 J CC values in the specific θ 2 or ω rotamers observed in crystalline samples. Good qualitative agreement was observed between calculated 1 J CC values and those measured by solid-state 13 C NMR regardless of the DFT model, but in no cases were calculated 1 J CC values quantitative, differing (over-estimated) on average by 4–5% from experimental values. These findings, and those reported recently from solution NMR studies (Tetrault et al., J. Phys. Chem. B 2022, 126, 9506–9515), indicate that improvements in DFT calculations are needed before calculated 1 J CC values can be used directly as reliable constraints in MA'AT analyses of saccharides in solution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Exponential Escape Rate of Filamentary Incubation in Mott Spiking Neurons

Mott materials such as vanadium oxides, when subject to a strong applied voltage, present an inhomogeneous insulator-to-metal transition with formation of metallic filaments within the insulating bulk. This property is enabling the development of compact and power-efficient neuromorphic devices known as Mott neurons. However, the nature of the transition has not been fully understood yet, as it may be attributed to different effects, including Joule self-heating and hot-carrier injection. Moreover, the experimental determination of the threshold voltage needed to induce the transition has proven to be challenging, as the transition becomes increasingly unpredictable when the threshold is approached. The physical understanding of these issues would not only deepen our understanding of Mott insulators, but would also be an important step toward the realization of neuromorphic devices based on such materials. In this work we use numerical simulations based on the Mott resistor network model to study the nature of the filament incubation and formation process. Here, we show that both electronic and thermal effects, in the form of current density focusing and Joule self-heating, respectively, contribute to the filamentary incubation and growth. Remarkably, we find that the percolation of the metallic filaments near the threshold is intrinsically stochastic, qualitatively similar to the familiar Arrhenius activated behavior and to the stochastic firing of biological neurons. More precisely, we characterize the filament percolation as a Poisson point process, which has the same probability distribution as mathematical models of neuronal firing with an exponential escape rate. Finally, we support the numerical simulation results by performing experiments in VO 2 that are in agreement with the exponential escape rate behavior. Thus, we establish a functionality of Mott insulators that opens a path toward implementing neuromorphic hardware with quantum materials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Maximally entangled gluons for any x

Individual quarks and gluons at small x inside an unpolarized hadron can be regarded as Bell states in which qubits in the spin and orbital angular momentum spaces are maximally entangled. Using the machinery of quantum information science, we generalize this observation to all values 0 < x <1 and describe gluons (but not quarks) as maximally entangled states between a qubit and a qudit. We introduce the conditional probability distribution P⁡(l z |s z ) of a gluon’s orbital angular momentum l z given its helicity s z . Restricting to the three states l z =0,±1, which constitute a qutrit, we explicitly compute P as a function of x.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evidence Theory Representations for Properties Associated With Weak Link/Strong Link Systems, Part 3: Margins for Failure Time and Failure Temperature

The use of evidence theory and associated cumulative plausibility functions (CPFs), cumulative belief functions (CBFs), cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), complementary cumulative plausibility functions (CCPFs), complementary cumulative belief functions (CCBFs), and complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) in the analysis of time and temperature margins associated with loss of assured safety (LOAS) for one weak link (WL)/two strong link (SL) systems is illustrated. Article content includes cumulative and complementary cumulative belief, plausibility, and probability for (i) SL/WL failure time margins defined by (time at which SL failure potentially causes LOAS) – (time at which WL failure potentially prevents LOAS), (ii) SL/WL failure temperature margins defined by (the temperature at which SL failure potentially causes LOAS) – (the temperature at which WL failure potentially prevents LOAS), and (iii) SL/SL failure temperature margins defined by (the temperature at which SL failure potentially causes LOAS) – (the temperature of SL whose failure potentially causes LOAS at the time at which WL failure potentially prevents LOAS).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Efficient photo-dissociation of CH{sub 4} and H{sub 2}CO molecules with optimized ultra-short laser pulses

The fragmentation dynamics of CH{sub 4} and H{sub 2}CO molecules have been studied with ultra-short pulses at laser intensityof up to 10{sup 15}Wcm{sup −2}. Three dimensional molecular dynamics calculations for finding the optimized laser pulses are presented based on time-dependent density functional theory and quantum optimal control theory. A comparison of the results for orientation dependence in the ionization process shows that the electron distribution for CH{sub 4} is more isotropic than H{sub 2}CO molecule. Total conversion yields of up to 70% at an orientation angle of 30{sup o} for CH{sub 4} and 65% at 90{sup 0} for H{sub 2}CO are achieved which lead to enhancement of dissociation probability.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Annual Maxima Suspended Sediment Concentrations and Floods in the Jinsha River, China

Streamflow plays a critical role in sediment transport. Traditional frequency analysis of annual maximal (AM) suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) is usually based on univariate distribution of SSCs and may provide a limited assessment of SSC state, leading to an underestimate or overestimate of the corresponding probability. To address this issue, we propose a multivariate frequency analysis framework is proposed for extreme sediment events using copula functions that account for the joint behavior of SSC and flood flow (i.e., peak discharge and volume). The uncertainties associated with copula modeling are also discussed. The Jinsha River in China is used as a case study. The results show that the copula-based multivariate method provides a more comprehensive assessment of extreme SSCs and their recurrence intervals than univariate frequency analysis. The uncertainty of copula modeling decreases with longer observation time and increases with larger return periods. The uncertainty ranges of the most likely design quantiles vary with different copulas, and the uncertainty range for the best-fit copula is not the smallest. This study is useful for the risk assessment of extreme SSC events under flood conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

POSSIBLE EVIDENCE OF ALFVEN-CYCLOTRON WAVES IN THE ANGLE DISTRIBUTION OF MAGNETIC HELICITY OF SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE

The fluctuating magnetic helicity is considered an important parameter in diagnosing the characteristic modes of solar wind turbulence. Among them is the Alfven-cyclotron wave, which is probably responsible for the solar wind plasma heating, but has not yet been identified from the magnetic helicity of solar wind turbulence. Here, we present the possible signatures of Alfven-cyclotron waves in the distribution of magnetic helicity as a function of {theta}{sub VB}, which is the angle between the solar wind velocity and local mean magnetic field. We use magnetic field data from the STEREO spacecraft to calculate the {theta}{sub VB} distribution of the normalized reduced fluctuating magnetic helicity {sigma}{sub m}. We find a dominant negative {sigma}{sub m} for 1 s < p < 4 s (p is time period) and for {theta}{sub VB} < 30 deg. in the solar wind outward magnetic sector, and a dominant positive {sigma}{sub m} for 0.4 s < p < 4 s and for {theta}{sub VB}>150 deg. in the solar wind inward magnetic sector. These features of {sigma}{sub m} appearing around the Doppler-shifted ion-cyclotron frequencies may be consistent with the existence of Alfven-cyclotron waves among the outward propagating fluctuations. Moreover, right-handed polarized waves at larger propagation angles, which might be kinetic Alfven waves or whistler waves, have also been identified on the basis of the {sigma}{sub m} features in the angular range 40 deg. < {theta}{sub VB} < 140 deg. Our findings suggest that Alfven-cyclotron waves (together with other wave modes) play a prominent role in turbulence cascading and plasma heating of the solar wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Uncertainty analysis of wavelet-based feature extraction for isotope identification on NaI gamma-ray spectra

Low-resolution isotope identifiers are widely deployed for nuclear security purposes, but these detectors currently demonstrate problems in making correct identifications in many typical usage scenarios. While there are many hardware alternatives and improvements that can be made, performance on existing low resolution isotope identifiers should be able to be improved by developing new identification algorithms. We have developed a wavelet-based peak extraction algorithm and an implementation of a Bayesian classifier for automated peak-based identification. The peak extraction algorithm has been extended to compute uncertainties in the peak area calculations. To build empirical joint probability distributions of the peak areas and uncertainties, a large set of spectra were simulated in MCNP6 and processed with the wavelet-based feature extraction algorithm. Kernel density estimation was then used to create a new component of the likelihood function in the Bayesian classifier. Furthermore, identification performance is demonstrated on a variety of real low-resolution spectra, including Category I quantities of special nuclear material.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On a theory of stability for nonlinear stochastic chemical reaction networks

We present elements of a stability theory for small, stochastic, nonlinear chemical reaction networks. Steady state probability distributions are computed with zero-information (ZI) closure, a closure algorithm that solves chemical master equations of small arbitrary nonlinear reactions. Stochastic models can be linearized around the steady state with ZI-closure, and the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix can be readily computed. Eigenvalues govern the relaxation of fluctuation autocorrelation functions at steady state. Autocorrelation functions reveal the time scales of phenomena underlying the dynamics of nonlinear reaction networks. In accord with the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, these functions are found to be congruent to response functions to small perturbations. Significant differences are observed in the stability of nonlinear reacting systems between deterministic and stochastic modeling formalisms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

THE MASSIVE SATELLITE POPULATION OF MILKY-WAY-SIZED GALAXIES

Several occupational distributions for satellite galaxies more massive than m{sub *} Almost-Equal-To 4 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 7} M{sub Sun} around Milky-Way (MW)-sized hosts are presented and used to predict the internal dynamics of these satellites as a function of m{sub *}. For the analysis, a large galaxy group mock catalog is constructed on the basis of (sub)halo-to-stellar mass relations fully constrained with currently available observations, namely the galaxy stellar mass function decomposed into centrals and satellites, and the two-point correlation functions at different masses. We find that 6.6% of MW-sized galaxies host two satellites in the mass range of the Small and Large Magellanic Clouds (SMC and LMC, respectively). The probabilities of the MW-sized galaxies having one satellite equal to or larger than the LMC, two satellites equal to or larger than the SMC, or three satellites equal to or larger than Sagittarius (Sgr) are Almost-Equal-To 0.26, 0.14, and 0.14, respectively. The cumulative satellite mass function of the MW, N{sub s} ({>=}m{sub *}) , down to the mass of the Fornax dwarf is within the 1{sigma} distribution of all the MW-sized galaxies. We find that MW-sized hosts with three satellites more massive than Sgr (as the MW) are among the most common cases. However, the most and second most massive satellites in these systems are smaller than the LMC and SMC by roughly 0.7 and 0.8 dex, respectively. We conclude that the distribution N{sub s} ({>=}m{sub *}) for MW-sized galaxies is quite broad, the particular case of the MW being of low frequency but not an outlier. The halo mass of MW-sized galaxies correlates only weakly with N{sub s} ({>=}m{sub *}). Then, it is not possible to accurately determine the MW halo mass by means of its N{sub s} ({>=}m{sub *}); from our catalog, we constrain a lower limit of 1.38 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 12} M{sub Sun} at the 1{sigma} level. Our analysis strongly suggests that the abundance of massive subhalos should agree with the abundance of massive satellites in all MW-sized hosts, i.e., there is not a missing (massive) satellite problem for the {Lambda}CDM cosmology. However, we confirm that the maximum circular velocity, v{sub max}, of the subhalos of satellites smaller than m{sub *} {approx} 10{sup 8} M{sub Sun} is systematically larger than the v{sub max} inferred from current observational studies of the MW bright dwarf satellites; different from previous works, this conclusion is based on an analysis of the overall population of MW-sized galaxies. Some pieces of evidence suggest that the issue could refer only to satellite dwarfs but not to central dwarfs, then environmental processes associated with dwarfs inside host halos combined with supernova-driven core expansion should be on the basis of the lowering of v{sub max}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗