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Spatial arrangement of canopy structure and land-use history alter the effect that herbivores have on plant growth

The spatial arrangement of past and present human activities could affect the strength of species interactions through changes to environmental conditions. To better understand how land-use history might mediate the effect of insect herbivory on the growth of four herbaceous plant species at the edges between woodlands and open savannas, we coupled large-scale manipulations of canopy structure by thinning overstory trees to create savanna habitat in non-agricultural and post-agricultural longleaf pine woodlands with local-scale herbivore exclosures at two distances from habitat edges. Light availability, grasshopper abundance, and herbaceous plant cover all increased in patches that received overstory tree thinning. Land-use history altered the effect that edges created by the overstory thinning treatments had on grasshopper herbivory for one plant species (Carphephorus bellidifolius). The edge between land-use histories also altered herbivore effects on three plant species in thinned patches. These edge effects were driven in part by changes in availability of alternative resources for grasshoppers, shady edges, or grasshopper abundance. Canopy manipulation also had important effects on herbivory that were independent of the habitat edge: grasshopper herbivory reduced plant growth of the smallest species (C. bellidifolius) regardless of canopy manipulation, whereas herbivory on two larger species (Solidago nemoralis and So. odora) reduced plant growth mainly in patches with an intact overstory canopy. Collectively, this work suggests that the species-specific effects of grasshopper herbivory on plant growth were driven by both plant traits (e.g., size or growth rates) and landscape-mediated changes to grasshopper abundance, light availability, or availability of alternative resources for grasshoppers created by land-use history and canopy structure. Furthermore, because the heterogeneity in herbivory revealed by our large-scale experiment is likely linked to plant traits, our results provide a means for understanding the profound, but often idiosyncratic, effects of land-use legacies and edges on plant populations and communities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Competition and cooperation: The plasticity of bacterial interactions across environments

Bacteria live in diverse communities, forming complex networks of interacting species. A central question in bacterial ecology is whether species engage in cooperative or competitive interactions. But this question often neglects the role of the environment. Here, we use genome-scale metabolic networks from two different open-access collections (AGORA and CarveMe) to assess pairwise interactions of different microbes in varying environmental conditions (provision of different environmental compounds). By computationally simulating thousands of environments for 10,000 pairs of bacteria from each collection, we found that most pairs were able to both compete and cooperate depending on the availability of environmental resources. This modeling approach allowed us to determine commonalities between environments that could facilitate the potential for cooperation or competition between a pair of species. Namely, cooperative interactions, especially obligate, were most common in less diverse environments. Further, as compounds were removed from the environment, we found interactions tended to degrade towards obligacy. However, we also found that on average at least one compound could be removed from an environment to switch the interaction from competition to facultative cooperation or vice versa. Together our approach indicates a high degree of plasticity in microbial interactions in response to the availability of environmental resources.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Radiochemistry Research and Training, UC Davis

The report contains a summary of the accomplishments made during the R2@UCDavis proposal. In brief we proposed to develop new and highly innovative radiotracer methods and to enhance training opportunities to ensure the future availability of human resources for highly specialized fields of radiotracer development chemistry and clinical nuclear medicine research and allied disciplines. The overall scientific objectives of this proposal were to utilize “click” chemistry to facilitate fast and site-specific radiolabeling. Progress was made on all initial goals presented. This funding has to date resulted in publications in high impact journals such as Acta Biomaterialia, Molecular Imaging and Biology, Nuclear Medicine and Biology and most recently Environmental Science and technology, and it is anticipated that through the collaborations established during the time course of this funding that future research will be published in clinically relevant journals such as Science Translational Medicine and the Journal of Nuclear Medicine. Trainees involved in this proposal have gone on to further their careers in both academia, industry and the private sector. The collaborative forums established during the time course of this funding will ensure the future availability of human resources for highly specialized fields of radiotracer development chemistry and clinical nuclear medicine research and allied disciplines.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Perennial grass root system specializes for multiple resource acquisitions with differential elongation and branching patterns

Roots optimize the acquisition of limited soil resources, but relationships between root forms and functions have often been assumed rather than demonstrated. Furthermore, how root systems co-specialize for multiple resource acquisitions is unclear. Theory suggests that trade-offs exist for the acquisition of different resource types, such as water and certain nutrients. Measurements used to describe the acquisition of different resources should then account for differential root responses within a single system. To demonstrate this, we grew Panicum virgatum in split-root systems that vertically partitioned high water availability from nutrient availability so that root systems must absorb the resources separately to fully meet plant demands. We evaluated root elongation, surface area, and branching, and we characterized traits using an order-based classification scheme. Plants allocated approximately 3/4th of primary root length towards water acquisition, whereas lateral branches were progressively allocated towards nutrients. However, root elongation rates, specific root length, and mass fraction were similar. Our results support the existence of differential root functioning within perennial grasses. Similar responses have been recorded in many plant functional types suggesting a fundamental relationship. Root responses to resource availability can be incorporated into root growth models via maximum root length and branching interval parameters.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A First Estimation of County-Based Green Water Availability and Its Implications for Agriculture and Bioenergy Production in the United States

Green water is vital for the terrestrial ecosystem, but water resource assessment often focuses on blue water. In this study, we estimated green water availability for major crops (i.e., corn, soybean, and wheat) and all other users(e.g., forest, grassland, and ecosystem services) at the county level in the United States. We estimated green water resources from effective rain(ER) using three different methods: Smith, U.S. Department of Agriculture-Soil Conservation Service (USDA-SCS), and the NHD plus V2 dataset. The analysis illustrates that, if green water meets all crop water demands, the fraction of green water resources available to all other users varies significantly across regions, from the Northern Plains (0.71) to the Southeast (0.98). At the county level, this fraction varies from 0.23 to 1.0. Green water resources estimated using the three different ER methods present diverse spatiotemporal distribution patterns across regions, which could affect green water availability estimates. The water availability index for green water (WAI_R) was measured taking into account crop water demand and green water resources aggregated at the county level. Beyond these parameters, WAI_R also depends on the precipitation pattern, crop type and spatially differentiated regions. In addition, seasonal analysis indicated that WAI_R is sensitive to the temporal boundary of the analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Optimal subhourly electricity resource dispatch under multiple price signals with high renewable generation availability

This article proposes a system-wide optimal resource dispatch strategy that enables a shift from a primarily energy cost-based approach, to a strategy using simultaneous price signals for energy, power and ramping behavior. A formal method to compute the optimal sub-hourly power trajectory is derived for a system when the price of energy and ramping are both significant. Optimal control functions are obtained in both time and frequency domains, and a discrete-time solution suitable for periodic feedback control systems is presented. The method is applied to North America Western Interconnection for the planning year 2024, and it is shown that an optimal dispatch strategy that simultaneously considers both the cost of energy and the cost of ramping leads to significant cost savings in systems with high levels of renewable generation: the savings exceed 25% of the total system operating cost for a 50% renewables scenario.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Seasonal forecasting skill for the High Mountain Asia region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorologically relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks to months is an area of active research and development. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1–3-month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981–2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2 m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to the similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from an anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system's ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

OReole-FM: successes and challenges toward billion-parameter foundation models for high-resolution satellite imagery

While the pretraining of Foundation Models (FMs) for remote sensing (RS) imagery is on the rise, models remain restricted to a few hundred million parameters. Scaling models to billions of parameters has been shown to yield unprecedented benefits including emergent abilities, but requires data scaling and computing resources typically not available outside industry R&D labs. In this work, we pair high-performance computing resources including Frontier supercomputer, America's first exascale system, and high-resolution optical RS data to pretrain billion-scale FMs. Our study assesses performance of different pretrained variants of vision Transformers across image classification, semantic segmentation and object detection benchmarks, which highlight the importance of data scaling for effective model scaling. Moreover, we discuss construction of a novel TIU pretraining dataset, model initialization, with data and pretrained models intended for public release. By discussing technical challenges and details often lacking in the related literature, this work is intended to offer best practices to the geospatial community toward efficient training and benchmarking of larger FMs.

Ambrozio Dias, Philipe↗

How Earth System Models Can Inform Key Dimensions of Marine Food Security in the Alaskan Arctic

The Arctic is home to several groups of Indigenous Peoples, each with distinct ways of interacting with their environment and ways of life. Arctic, Indigenous Peoples’ food sovereignty is tightly linked with food security. Subsistence harvesting activities provide nutritious and culturally vital foods for Alaska Native households and communities. Climate change is causing rapid and more unpredictable shifts in environmental conditions that impact three of the key aspects of food security, availability, stability, and accessibility. While communities monitor the abundance and health of food webs and environments as part of subsistence harvest practices, anticipating major transformations and changes in these systems is challenging. We explored the potential of Earth System Model output in helping anticipate or project physical or ecosystem changes relevant to Alaska Indigenous peoples’ food security needs. Through examples of model products, that provide measures of accessibility and availability of marine resources, we show that modern models, such as the Energy Exascale Earth System Model presented here, can provide estimates of a broad suite of variables relevant to food security. We investigate how Earth System Model output could contribute to exploring questions related to aspects of Arctic food security such as accessibility and availability and highlight present model shortcomings that, if addressed, would move Earth System Models closer to being a useful tool for understanding environmentally driven changes to the availability and accessibility of harvestable food resources. Our example model-derived food security indicators illustrate how Earth System Model output could be combined with relevant, non-model, information sources; These model products are meant only as a starting point and a tool for engaging community members and to present, in an accessible way, the model’s potential utility, or current lack thereof, to rights holders and stakeholders concerned about food security. We are hopeful that with example products in hand, additional model development efforts will have a higher likelihood of success in achieving an iterative discussion with stakeholders regarding feasible and desired products.

Gibson, Georgina A.↗

Food resources affect territoriality of invasive wild pig sounders with implications for control

Abstract Interest in control methods for invasive wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) has increased due to their range expansion, population growth, and an improved understanding of their destructive ecological and economic effects. Recent technological advances in traps for control of pig populations facilitate capture of entire social groups (sounders), but the efficacy of “whole-sounder” trapping strategies is heavily dependent on the degree of territoriality among sounders, a topic little research has explored. We assessed territoriality in wild pig sounders on the Savannah River Site, South Carolina, USA, and examined whether availability of food resources provided by a municipal-waste landfill affected among-sounder territoriality. We estimated utilization distribution overlap and dynamic interactions among 18 neighboring sounders around a landfill. We found that although neighboring sounders overlapped in space, intensity of use in shared areas was uniformly low, indicating territorial behavior. Neighbors tended to share slightly more space when closer to the landfill waste cells, indicating availability of a super-abundant resource somewhat weakens the degree of territoriality among sounders. Nevertheless, we conclude that sounders behaved in a generally territorial manner, and we discuss implications for whole-sounder trapping programs, particularly near concentrated resources such as landfills and crop fields.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks

Consumption of renewable energy in the United States is the highest in history, contributing to energy security, greenhouse gas reductions, and other social, economic, and environmental benefits. The largest single source of renewable energy is biomass, representing 3.9 quadrillion of 9.6 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2015 (EIA 2016). Biomass includes agricultural and forestry resources, municipal solid waste (MSW), and algae. For more than a decade, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has been quantifying the potential of U.S. biomass resources, under biophysical and economic constraints, for production of renewable energy and bioproducts. The 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16) evaluates the most recent estimates of potential biomass that could be available for new industrial uses in the future. BT16 consists of two volumes: Volume 1 (this volume) focuses on resource analysis—projecting biomass potentially available at specified prices. Volume 2 evaluates changes in environmental sustainability indicators— water quality and quantity, greenhouse gas emissions, air quality, soil organic carbon, and biodiversity—associated with select production scenarios in volume 1. The following is a summary of BT16 , volume 1.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Sustainability metrics for assessing water resource recovery facilities of the future

Abstract The recovery of water, energy, and nutrients from water resource recovery facilities ( WRRF s) is needed to address significant global challenges, such as increasing water demand and decreasing availability of nonrenewable resources. To meet these challenges, innovative technological developments must lead to increased adoption of water and resource recovery processes, while addressing stakeholder needs (e.g., innovators, practitioners, regulators). A test bed network of over 90 partner facilities within the United States and abroad will help accelerate innovation and widespread adoption of novel processes through multiscale testing and demonstration of technologies. In this paper, we define a common set of environmental, economic, technical, and social performance metrics for innovative technologies, that will meet the needs of multiple stakeholders in the decision‐making process. These triple bottom line performance metrics can be used to track the sustainability of technologies in a consistent and transparent manner, while aiding the decision‐making process for WRRF s. Practitioner points The Facilities Accelerating Science and Technology (FAST) Water Network includes over 90 test bed facilities dedicated to accelerating innovation and adoption of water energy, and nutrient recovery systems. A common set of environmental, economic, technical, and social performance metrics should be measured and reported when a new technology is evaluated in the FAST Water Network. Performance metrics can aid sustainable decision‐making at WRRF, while meeting the needs of multiple stakeholders.

Cornejo, Pablo K.↗

Final Report for ALCC Allocation: Predictive Simulation of Complex Flow in Wind Farms

This report documents work performed using ALCC computing resources granted under a proposal submitted in February 2016, with the resource allocation period spanning the period July 2016 through June 2017. The award allocation was 10.7 million processor-hours at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center. The simulations performed were in support of two projects: the Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) project, supported by the DOE EERE office; and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), supported by the DOE Office of Science. The project team for both efforts consists of staff scientists and postdocs from Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. At the heart of these projects is the open-source computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) code, Nalu. Nalu solves the low-Mach-number Navier-Stokes equations using an unstructured- grid discretization. Nalu leverages the open-source Trilinos solver library and the Sierra Toolkit (STK) for parallelization and I/O. This report documents baseline computational performance of the Nalu code on problems of direct relevance to the wind plant physics application - namely, Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow and wall-modeled LES of a flow past a static wind turbine rotor blade. Parallel performance of Nalu and its constituent solver routines residing in the Trilinos library has been assessed previously under various campaigns. However, both Nalu and Trilinos have been, and remain, in active development and resources have not been available previously to rigorously track code performance over time. With the initiation of the ECP, it is important to establish and document baseline code performance on the problems of interest. This will allow the project team to identify and target any deficiencies in performance, as well as highlight any performance bottlenecks as we exercise the code on a greater variety of platforms and at larger scales. The current study is rather modest in scale, examining performance on problem sizes of O(100 million) elements and core counts up to 8k cores. This will be expanded as more computational resources become available to the projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Powering the Blue Economy: Marine Energy at Kelp Farm Sites

Marine energy (ME) has the potential to power businesses in the blue economy. Kelp farms are an emerging maritime market of the blue economy and are predicted to grow, but they are not currently using ME for their power needs. As the number and size of kelp farms increase, more offshore power will be needed onsite for operations, monitoring, and harvesting. ME devices such as tidal current energy converters and wave energy converters (WECs) may be used to supply power for these needs. This article assesses the status of kelp farming in the continental United States, investigates the electricity needs of kelp farms, and examinesthe feasibility of generating the required electricity from wave and tidal current energy. The United States currently has 165 kelp farms that have either active or pending permits. The farms use electricity for boat operations, kelp drying, environmental monitoring, offshore lighting, and the raising and lowering of lines. Most kelp farms are in protected, nearshore waters that do not have significant wave energy resources. The limited available wave energy could be used to power small devices, but WECs have not yet been developed for that application. Some kelp farms are in locations that feature significant tidal energy resources, but small tidal current energy converters that are compatible with existing farm operations are not yet commercially available. As low-power WECs and tidal current energy converters are developed, kelp farms could be research partners and early adopters of the new technologies, which would encourage their broader use by other blue economy businesses.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Understanding the Grid Value Proposition of Marine Energy: A Literature Review

This document is a literature review in support of a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and National Renewable Energy Laboratory technical project to understand and quantify the potential grid value of marine energy-derived electricity generation. This review catalogues and summarizes relevant publications that indicate marine energy resource locations and availability (duration and magnitude) as relevant to evaluating grid value; the variety of energy converter devices and their performance characteristics, by marine resource; whether and to what degree marine energy installations can earn revenue or offer benefits to the electric system; and the state of research on assessing and quantifying relevant electric system benefits that do not have a traditional form of procurement or price. The purpose of this review is to establish a knowledge baseline relevant to the project, to identify gaps, avoid redundancy, foster collaboration, and leverage methods and data to the extent possible. Key findings of the review are indicated in the Executive Summary

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Life Cycle Water Consumption and Water Resource Assessment for Utility-Scale Geothermal Systems: An In-Depth Analysis of Historical and Forthcoming EGS Projects

This report is the third in a series of reports sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program in which a range of water-related issues surrounding geothermal power production are evaluated. The first report made an initial attempt at quantifying the life cycle fresh water requirements of geothermal power-generating systems and explored operational and environmental concerns related to the geochemical composition of geothermal fluids. The initial analysis of life cycle fresh water consumption of geothermal power-generating systems identified that operational water requirements consumed the vast majority of water across the life cycle. However, it relied upon limited operational water consumption data and did not account for belowground operational losses for enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs). A second report presented an initial assessment of fresh water demand for future growth in utility-scale geothermal power generation. The current analysis builds upon this work to improve life cycle fresh water consumption estimates and incorporates regional water availability into the resource assessment to improve the identification of areas where future growth in geothermal electricity generation may encounter water challenges. This report is divided into nine chapters. Chapter 1 gives the background of the project and its purpose, which is to assess the water consumption of geothermal technologies and identify areas where water availability may present a challenge to utility-scale geothermal development. Water consumption refers to the water that is withdrawn from a resource such as a river, lake, or nongeothermal aquifer that is not returned to that resource. The geothermal electricity generation technologies evaluated in this study include conventional hydrothermal flash and binary systems, as well as EGSs that rely on engineering a productive reservoir where heat exists, but where water availability or permeability may be limited. Chapter 2 describes the approach and methods for this work and identifies the four power plant scenarios evaluated: a 20-MW EGS binary plant, a 50-MW EGS binary plant, a 10-MW hydrothermal binary plant, and a 50-MW hydrothermal flash plant. The methods focus on (1) the collection of data to improve estimation of EGS stimulation volumes, aboveground operational consumption for all geothermal technologies, and belowground operational consumption for EGS; and (2) the mapping of the geothermal and water resources of the western United States to assist in the identification of potential water challenges to geothermal growth. Chapters 3 and 4 present the water requirements for the power plant life cycle. Chapter 3 presents the results of the current data collection effort, and Chapter 4 presents the normalized volume of fresh water consumed at each life cycle stage per lifetime energy output for the power plant scenarios evaluated. Over the life cycle of a geothermal power plant, from construction through 30 years of operation, the majority of water is consumed by plant operations. For the EGS binary scenarios, where dry cooling was assumed, belowground operational water loss is the greatest contributor depending upon the physical and operational conditions of the reservoir. Total life cycle water consumption requirements for air-cooled EGS binary scenarios vary between 0.22 and 1.85 gal/kWh, depending upon the extent of belowground operational water consumption. The air-cooled hydrothermal binary and flash plants experience far less fresh water consumption over the life cycle, at 0.04 gal/kWh. Fresh water requirements associated with air- cooled binary operations are primarily from aboveground water needs, including dust control, maintenance, and domestic use. Although wet-cooled hydrothermal flash systems require water for cooling, these plants generally rely upon the geofluid, fluid from the geothermal reservoir, which typically has high salinity and total dissolved solids concentration and is much warmer than normal groundwater sources, for their cooling water needs; thus, while there is considerable geofluid loss at 2.7 gal/kWh, fresh water consumption during operations is similar to that of aircooled binary systems. Chapter 5 presents the assessment of water demand for future growth in deployment of utility-scale geothermal power generation. The approach combines the life cycle analysis of geothermal water consumption with a geothermal supply curve according to resource type, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and potential growth scenarios. A total of 17 growth scenarios were evaluated. In general, the scenarios that assumed lower costs for EGSs as a result of learning and technological improvements resulted in greater geothermal potential, but also significantly greater water demand due to the higher water consumption by EGSs. It was shown, however, that this effect could be largely mitigated if nonpotable water sources were used for belowground operational water demands. The geographical areas that showed the highest water demand for most growth scenarios were southern and northern California, as well as most of Nevada. In addition to water demand by geothermal power production, Chapter 5 includes data on water availability for geothermal development areas. A qualitative analysis is included that identifies some of the basins where the limited availability of water is most likely to affect the development of geothermal resources. The data indicate that water availability is fairly limited, especially under drought conditions, in most of the areas with significant near- and medium-term geothermal potential. Southern California was found to have the greatest potential for water-related challenges with its combination of high geothermal potential and limited water availability. The results of this work are summarized in Chapter 6. Overall, this work highlights the importance of utilizing dry cooling systems for binary and EGS systems and minimizing fresh water consumption throughout the life cycle of geothermal power development. The large resource base for EGSs represents a major opportunity for the geothermal industry; however, depending upon geology, these systems can require large quantities of makeup water due to belowground reservoir losses. Identifying potential sources of compatible degraded or low-quality water for use for makeup injection for EGS and flash systems represents an important opportunity to reduce the impacts of geothermal development on fresh water resources. The importance of identifying alternative water sources for geothermal systems is heightened by the fact that a large fraction of the geothermal resource is located in areas already experiencing water stress. Chapter 7 is a glossary of the technical terms used in the report, and Chapters 8 and 9 provide references and a bibliography, respectively.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗