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DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Hybrid FPOG Applications in Regulated and Deregulated Markets Using HERON

Recent changes in the U.S. energy market, such as low natural gas prices and increased electricity production for variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, have led to an economic crisis for existing light-water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPP). Many owners and operators of LWRs have elected to decommission these plants rather than continue using them as consistent sources of clean baseload power. This has led to exploration of various possibilities to increase the economic viability of these units, including market restructuring to monetize benefits LWRs already provide to the grid through ancillary markets, load following and economic dispatch, and possible integration of secondary systems directly to the NPP for production of additional products through technologies such as hydrogen electrolysis or water desalination. Previous studies have considered the technologies associated with these Integrated Energy Systems (IES) activities, and the analysis of markets for these secondary products. To analyze the economic viability of various system configurations including IES, especially given the uncertainty surrounding load demand, electricity prices, and the availability of VRE resources, the stochastic technoeconomic analysis package HERON (Heuristic Energy Resource Optimization Network) was released earlier this year as an extension of the risk analysis framework RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual Environment). HERON focuses foremost on making the complex uncertainty quantification analysis tools approachable for energy systems analysts, also providing general dispatch optimization algorithms for those workflows. HERON continues to be improved and tested as a significant part of the IES viability analyses performed in this work. HERON is not a capacity expansion model. To consider market and grid energy system development in a variety of scenarios, HERON is best used in coupling with modelling tools such as US-REGEN, which sacrifice some of the uncertainty analysis and resolution of HERON's modelling for the ability to efficiently predict the change in the grid energy system's profile due to economic drivers over decades. HERON can then use this information to explore the economic viability of introducing changes to the predicted outcomes, such as the introduction of an IES. In this work, experts at EPRI using US-REGEN provide six projection scenarios for use in HERON stochastic technoeconomic analysis (STEA) in considering the options available for increasing LWR economic viability through introduction of a hydrogen-centric IES using a high-temperature steam electrolysis plant (HTSE), hydrogen storage, and a constant-rate contracted hydrogen consumer. The results obtained are differential in nature; they do not report expected profits for any configuration, but rather report on the possible increase in the NPV of a configuration with respect to a baseline no-IES configuration. Due to the uncertainty captured in the variable net load of the systems, there is likewise uncertainty in the mean values reported. We consider this viability both in terms of a regulated market, where the energy producers and IES are owned and operated by single entity, as well as a deregulated market, where the IES chooses its bid for electricity generation and is then dispatched by the grid system operator. Results indicate that for deregulated markets, the inclusion of the IES is often statistically beneficial. This is especially true in policies that are not favorable towards nuclear, as nuclear is less often dispatched and is forced to deal with frequent idle capacity. In the nominal case as well as the case of carbon tax policies, inclusion of the IES clearly benefited the economic performance of the NPP. In the regulated case, however, there was a trend towards minimizing the IES, likely due to the optimal sizing performed by US-REGEN of the NPP within the system as well as the lack of penalty for idle capacity at the NPP in the regulated market analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of Acoustic Channel Capacity for Complex Piping Topology

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Final Report for Transmission of Information by Acoustic Communication along Metal Pathways in Nuclear Facilities

Transmission of information using elastic waves on existing metallic pipes provides an alternative communication option for a nuclear facility. The advantages of this approach consist of transmitting information through barriers, such as the containment building wall. A viable candidate for acoustic communication channel is a chemical volume control system (CVCS) stainless steel pipe, which penetrates through the containment building wall. A laboratory bench-scale system consisting of a nuclear grade CVCS-like pipe and ultrasonic transducers was assembled for a preliminary communication system analysis. Because of low bandwidth and spectral dispersion of ultrasonic transducers, on off keying (OOK) protocol was chosen for data communication. Operation of the acoustic communication during normal and post-accident conditions involves data transmission on the CVCS pipe, which according to literature guidelines, will be at 50°C and 150°C, respectively. Preliminary communication system development was performed using paintbrush PZT transducers capable of continuous operation at temperatures up to 80°C. Next, high-temperature LiNbO 3 acoustic transducers, originally developed for flow metering applications of EBRII reactor at Argonne, were utilized to develop a high-temperature acoustic communication system. A Gaussian pulse shape filter was introduced to suppress ringing and thus reduce inter-symbol interference. This resulted in enhancement of data transmission bitrate. Heating tapes, temperature controllers, and thermal insulation were installed on the laboratory pipe to study acoustic communication at elevated temperature. This included development of custom insertion heating elements for controlling temperature at pipe ends. Demonstrations of communication at high temperature included transmission of images and text files. Main achievements thus far include demonstration of transmission of 90KB image at the bitrate of 10Kbps with bit error rate smaller than 10 -3 across the pipe heated to 50°C and 150°C. Final phase of project development involved investigating strategies for deployment of the ultrasonic communication system in a representative environment. Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) facility at ANL was chosen as a viable candidate for communication system demonstration. Analysis of piping manifolds at METL has shown that in a typical scenario, ultrasonic signals have to be transmitted over straight and bent piping sections. This report describes preliminary studies on transmission of information with ultrasonic shear waves across bent piping sections. A test article consisting of a stainless steel pipe bent at 90° was developed for laboratory analysis of ultrasonic signal transmission. The bent piping test article developed by welding two straight pipes to an elbow. For consistency, the diameter and wall thickness of the bent pipe is the same as that of the straight pipe utilized in prior studies. COMSOL computer simulations were performed to study ultrasonic refracted shear wave coupling and transmission across bent piping. Preliminary evaluations of ultrasonic shear wave transmission were conducted with piezoelectric (PZT) and LiNbO 3 transducers, with the signals recorded with previously developed LabView interface. Preliminary results have shown significant dispersion of transmitted signals, most likely due to reflections and scattering by piping welds. Signal distortion compensation algorithm based on time reversal modulation (TRM) was initially investigated for transmission through solids, and demonstrated for signals transmitted over the bent pipe. Using TRM, it was shown that communication bitrates of 100Kbps were achievable, in principle.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

SCALE Analyses of Scenarios in the Molten Salt Reactor Fuel Cycle

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission non-light-water reactor fuel cycle demonstration project, the capabilities of SCALE 6.3.1 for radionuclide characterization, criticality, and shielding were demonstrated through several scenarios in a molten salt reactor (MSR) nuclear fuel cycle. Three scenarios were selected for this study, with the molten salt breeder reactor (MSBR) serving as the reference design. The original thorium-based fuel salt used in MSBR was replaced with a 235 U-enriched fuel salt to better reflect anticipated future MSR concepts. The first scenario focused on the fuel salt preparation stage. Criticality analyses, using SCALE/CSAS-Shift and SCALE/SAMPLER, examined potential critical configurations in the fresh fuel salt container based on variables such as 235 U enrichment, UF 4 molar fraction, temperature, and container geometry. The second scenario explored the release of fission products during reactor operation in which the tritium buildup in the primary fuel salt was quantified through depletion calculations using SCALE/TRITON with continuous fuel makeup and fractional fission product removal. This scenario also assessed radioactivity levels in the off-gas system (OGS), quantifying radiotoxic nuclides that could be released into the environment. SCALE/SAMPLER was employed to perform uncertainty quantification to identify key operating parameters influencing the buildup of radiotoxic nuclides in the OGS. Additionally, radiation dose rates were calculated using SCALE/MAVRIC to estimate the maximum exposure levels within the reactor cell complex during operation. The final scenario evaluated the decay heat and radioactivity of the primary fuel salt collected in the drain tank, as well as the radiation dose rate outside the building from the presence of the drain tank. Overall, the application of SCALE’s various capabilities for radionuclide inventory generation, criticality analysis, and shielding in MSR fuel cycles was successfully demonstrated across these scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation process and data flow for a large system dynamics model

This paper documents the workflow and supporting technologies that a large system dynamics model, the biomass scenario model, employs to streamline the data preparation, simulation, quality control, and analysis process at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The workflow centers on automation of routine aspects of the flow of data between data stores, simulations, and visualizations. It enforces quality checks on data, reproducibility of computations, and traceability of results, while maintaining complete archives of modeling and analysis artifacts. The resulting frictionless simulation/analysis environment supports large-scale sensitivity analysis, interactive creation of ensembles of simulations, and rapid visualization-based exploration of simulation results.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Structural Characterization of a Toppling Rock Slab From Array-Based Ambient Vibration Measurements and Numerical Modal Analysis

Accurate assessments of the internal structure and boundary conditions of unstable rock slopes are imperative for evaluating landslide hazard scenarios. However, instability characterization at depth remains challenging and is often limited by costly or invasive subsurface investigations. Here, we develop a new approach coupling array-based ambient vibration modal analysis and numerical modeling to improve structural characterization of rock slope instabilities at depth. We used ambient noise cross-correlation on 4 hr of seismic data recorded by an array of 30 nodal geophones at a 500-m-long toppling rock slab in Utah, USA to identify modal frequencies between 0.8 and 3.5 Hz and derive modal displacements. We show that transverse and longitudinal bending modes span the length of the instability, indicating an interconnected slab. Further, statistical comparison of field results with outputs from >1,000 finite element models with varying boundary conditions showed that the instability depth varies between 40–70 and 10–20 m in the middle and lateral regions, respectively. Our approach yields new information on the structural conditions of rock cliff and column instabilities at depth, which is not easily obtained by other means but is imperative for change detection monitoring and improved hazard assessments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fermi-LAT Captures a Late-2024 Gamma-Ray Outburst near Two Newly Identified Gamma-Ray-emitting Galactic Supernova Remnants, without Evidence of Physical Association

We report the gamma-ray study of two neighboring in the sky Galactic supernova remnants (SNRs), namely, 3C 434.1 (or G094.0+01.0) and G093.7–00.2. In the vicinity of the two SNRs, a late-2024 gamma-ray outburst—not physically connected to the SNRs—was detected with the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Employing 16.5 yr of Fermi-LAT data, we report the first firm detection of the gamma-ray counterpart of 3C 434.1 at a 7.2σ significance and a likely detection of an enhanced gamma-ray emission signal at a 4.5σ level from G093.7–00.2. The late-2024 gamma-ray outburst is detected at a ∼12σ significance level over a duration of 3 days. For all three objects, a comprehensive morphological and spectral analysis of the corresponding gamma-ray data was conducted. The prevalent scenario for the nature of the gamma-ray emission of both SNRs is attributed to their surrounding environment. Both are likely interacting with nearby dense material, resulting in hadronically induced gamma-ray emission. We deduce that the outburst source is most likely a blazar in flare, linked to the compact, flat-spectrum radio source TXS 2138+527 (also known as NVSS J213953+530016). Further, the spectral analysis of the gamma-ray source conducted within the 100 MeV–800 GeV energy range using the complete LAT data sets, which yielded a soft averaged spectral shape, supports the hypothesis of a flat spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) origin for the source; with a most likely leptonically induced scenario for the observed gamma-ray outburst as inferred from the obtained hard spectral shape when utilizing short time intervals focusing on the outburst.

Michailidis, Miltiadis [Stanford Univ., CA (United↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pair production of charged IDM scalars at high energy CLIC

The Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) was proposed as the next energy-frontier infrastructure at CERN, to study e ^+ + e ^- − collisions at three centre-of-mass energy stages: 380,GeV, 1.5,TeV and 3,TeV. The main goal of its high-energy stages is to search for the new physics beyond the Standard Model (SM). The Inert Doublet Model (IDM) is one of the simplest SM extensions and introduces four new scalar particles: H ^\pm ± , A and H; the lightest, H, is stable and hence a natural dark matter (DM) candidate. A set of benchmark points is considered, which are consistent with current theoretical and experimental constraints and promise detectable signals at future colliders. Prospects for observing pair-production of the IDM scalars at CLIC were previously studied using signatures with two leptons in the final state. In the current study, discovery reach for the IDM charged scalar pair-production is considered for the semi-leptonic final state at the two high-energy CLIC stages. Full simulation analysis, based on the current CLIC detector model, is presented for five selected IDM scenarios. Results are then extended to the larger set of benchmarks using the Delphes fast simulation framework. The CLIC detector model for Delphes has been modified to take pile-up contribution from the beam-induced \gamma\gamma γ γ interactions into account, which is crucial for the presented analysis. Results of the study indicate that heavy, charged IDM scalars can be discovered at CLIC for most of the proposed benchmark scenarios, with very high statistical significance.

Klamka, Jan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Air quality and public health co-benefits of 100% renewable electricity adoption and electrification pathways in Los Angeles

To demonstrate how a mega city can lead in decarbonizing beyond legal mandates, the city of Los Angeles (LA) developed science-based, feasible pathways towards utilizing 100% renewable energy for its municipally-owned electric utility. Aside from decarbonization, renewable energy adoption can lead to co-benefits such as improving urban air quality from reductions in combustion-related emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and others. Herein, we quantify changes to air pollutant concentrations and public health from scenarios of 100% renewable electricity adoption in LA in 2045, alongside aggressive electrification of end-use sectors. Our analysis suggests that while ensuring reliable electricity supply, reductions in emissions of air pollutants associated with the 100% renewable electricity scenarios can lead to 8% citywide reductions of PM 2.5 concentration while increasing ozone concentration by 5% relative to a 2012 baseline year, given identical meteorology conditions. The combination of these concentration changes could result in net monetized public health benefits (driven by avoided deaths) of up to $\$$1.4 billion in year 2045 in LA, results potentially replicable for other city-scale decarbonization scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1993

Space Station maintenance studies using plaid graphics

The Graphics Analysis Facility (GRAF) has been used frequently to study extravehicular activity (EVA) maintenance scenarios on Space Station Freedom. The ability to use 3-dimensional visualization gives one a more accurate estimate of the Space Station environment. Moreover, human EVA and robotic kinematics can be accurately simulated for columetric reach and collision detection analysis. An animation of this kind was developed for a research group at JSC to study and discover problem areas involved with doing external Space Station maintenance tasks. On the EVA side, it was discovered that items such as handholds and temporary restraint mechanisms should more effectively facilitate EVA movement about the Space Station structure for the suited personnel. Issues concerning CETA cart configuration, PWP storage locations, and locations of EVA storage areas were also identified by use of the animation. In the area of EVA versus robotics, it was found that there is a strong desire to make EVA and robotics interfaces compatible on items such as replacement units and unpressurized logistics carriers. The animation also showed that the use of robotics within an EVA task increases the difficulty and duration of the task setup, leaving less time available for the maintenance task itself. Graphics animation provides a mechanism to simultaneously analyze several mission parameters (i.e., EVA reach, volumetric analysis, and task timelines), and thus, it has proven to be an effective method for mission evaluation.

Helm, Mary E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on A Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy: Preprint

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging the power grid operation. In front of the extreme weather, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outage and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The predicted vulnerable lines of an outage prediction model tool are utilized to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers the schedule of repair crews and mobile energy resources. Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative ones for straightforward analysis. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage level brought by extreme weather and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

mobile energy resources↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Impact of Demographic Lifecycle States on Time to Vehicle Purchase: Insights from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

This study examines the impact of demographic lifecycle stages on the timing of vehicle purchases, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999 to 2021. Survival analysis was employed to model the duration until households purchase vehicles, incorporating key lifecycle variables such as age, employment status, marital status, childbirth, home ownership, and the presence of school-going children. The life table results indicate that early adulthood (ages 20–35) is the prime period for vehicle acquisition, with significant peaks around ages 25 to 30. Additionally, the instantaneous hazard of purchasing a vehicle is highest in the late 40s and early 50s. According to the Cox proportional hazards model, employment, marital status, and home ownership significantly increase the likelihood of purchasing a vehicle, while living in multi-unit dwellings decreases it. Interaction effects reveal that married individuals with employed spouses are substantially more likely to purchase vehicles. In conclusion, this study serves as a steppingstone toward integrating demographic lifecycle analysis into car ownership modeling that better reflects real-world scenarios and increases the accuracy of policy and strategic planning.

Car ownership↗

NASA NTRS1994

Mars Aerocapture Analysis For MESUR/Mars-Pathfinder Aeroshells Using Un-modulated Control in Low L/D Configurations

Aerocapture scenarios are examined to determine the feasibility of using MESUR/Mars Pathfinder aeroshell designs to capture spacecraft aerodynamically into Mars orbit. Using lift over drag (L/D) ratios up to 0.3, entry trajectories were simulated over a range of entry vehicle masses and entry velocities. Entry corridor widths were calculated for undershoot and overshoot trajectories yielding Mars parking orbits having periods from 2 to 20 hours. For entries with L/D = 0.3, entry corridor widths of about 1.2 degrees are possible over entry velocities from 5.5 to 9.0 km/sec. The design constraints for an aeroshell used for orbital aerocapture are less severe than a ballistic entry for a surface lander mission such as Mars Pathfinder, because the aerothermodynamic heating and deceleration loads are smaller. The mass savings from aerocapture orbit insertion versus propulsive insertion into Mars orbit could result in significantly reducing program costs and increasing mission capabilities.

Wercinski, Paul F.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scale-up and techno-economic analysis of microbial electrolysis cells for hydrogen production from wastewater

Microbial electrolysis cells (MECs) have demonstrated high-rate H 2 production while concurrently treating wastewater, but the transition in scale from laboratory research to systems that can be practically applied has encountered challenges. It has been more than a decade since the first pilot-scale MEC was reported, and in recent years, many attempts have been made to overcome the barriers and move the technology to the market. This study provided a detailed analysis of MEC scale-up efforts and summarized the key factors that should be considered to further develop the technology. We compared the major scale-up configurations and systematically evaluated their performance from both technical and economic perspectives. We characterized how system scale-up impacts the key performance metrics such as volumetric current density and H 2 production rate, and we proposed methods to evaluate and optimize system design and fabrication. In addition, preliminary techno-economic analysis indicates that MECs can be profitable in many different market scenarios with or without subsidies. Here, we also provide perspectives on future development needed to transition MEC technology to the marketplace.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Abundance recovery error analysis using simulated AVIRIS data

Measurement noise and imperfect atmospheric correction translate directly into errors in the determination of the surficial abundance of materials from imaging spectrometer data. The effects of errors on abundance recovery were investigated previously using Monte Carlo simulation methods by Sabol et. al. The drawback of the Monte Carlo approach is that thousands of trials are needed to develop good statistics on the probable error in abundance recovery. This computational burden invariably limits the number of scenarios of interest that can practically be investigated. A more efficient approach is based on covariance analysis. The covariance analysis approach expresses errors in abundance as a function of noise in the spectral measurements and provides a closed form result eliminating the need for multiple trials. Monte Carlo simulation and covariance analysis are used to predict confidence limits for abundance recovery for a scenario which is modeled as being derived from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS).

Stoner, William W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Logistics Modeling for Lunar Exploration Systems

The extensive logistics required to support extended crewed operations in space make effective modeling of logistics requirements and deployment critical to predicting the behavior of human lunar exploration systems. This paper discusses the software that has been developed as part of the Campaign Manifest Analysis Tool in support of strategic analysis activities under the Constellation Architecture Team - Lunar. The described logistics module enables definition of logistics requirements across multiple surface locations and allows for the transfer of logistics between those locations. A key feature of the module is the loading algorithm that is used to efficiently load logistics by type into carriers and then onto landers. Attention is given to the capabilities and limitations of this loading algorithm, particularly with regard to surface transfers. These capabilities are described within the context of the object-oriented software implementation, with details provided on the applicability of using this approach to model other human exploration scenarios. Some challenges of incorporating probabilistics into this type of logistics analysis model are discussed at a high level.

Andraschko, Mark R.↗