SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “State Variable”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 901 records · Page 50

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2012

A Thermodynamically-Based Mesh Objective Work Potential Theory for Predicting Intralaminar Progressive Damage and Failure in Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

A thermodynamically-based work potential theory for modeling progressive damage and failure in fiber-reinforced laminates is presented. The current, multiple-internal state variable (ISV) formulation, enhanced Schapery theory (EST), utilizes separate ISVs for modeling the effects of damage and failure. Damage is considered to be the effect of any structural changes in a material that manifest as pre-peak non-linearity in the stress versus strain response. Conversely, failure is taken to be the effect of the evolution of any mechanisms that results in post-peak strain softening. It is assumed that matrix microdamage is the dominant damage mechanism in continuous fiber-reinforced polymer matrix laminates, and its evolution is controlled with a single ISV. Three additional ISVs are introduced to account for failure due to mode I transverse cracking, mode II transverse cracking, and mode I axial failure. Typically, failure evolution (i.e., post-peak strain softening) results in pathologically mesh dependent solutions within a finite element method (FEM) setting. Therefore, consistent character element lengths are introduced into the formulation of the evolution of the three failure ISVs. Using the stationarity of the total work potential with respect to each ISV, a set of thermodynamically consistent evolution equations for the ISVs is derived. The theory is implemented into commercial FEM software. Objectivity of total energy dissipated during the failure process, with regards to refinements in the FEM mesh, is demonstrated. The model is also verified against experimental results from two laminated, T800/3900-2 panels containing a central notch and different fiber-orientation stacking sequences. Global load versus displacement, global load versus local strain gage data, and macroscopic failure paths obtained from the models are compared to the experiments.

Pineda, Evan J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Enhanced Schapery Theory Software Development for Modeling Failure of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

Progressive damage and failure analysis (PDFA) tools are needed to predict the nonlinear response of advanced fiber-reinforced composite structures. Predictive tools should incorporate the underlying physics of the damage and failure mechanisms observed in the composite, and should utilize as few input parameters as possible. The purpose of the Enhanced Schapery Theory (EST) was to create a PDFA tool that operates in conjunction with a commercially available finite element (FE) code (Abaqus). The tool captures the physics of the damage and failure mechanisms that result in the nonlinear behavior of the material, and the failure methodology employed yields numerical results that are relatively insensitive to changes in the FE mesh. The EST code is written in Fortran and compiled into a static library that is linked to Abaqus. A Fortran Abaqus UMAT material subroutine is used to facilitate the communication between Abaqus and EST. A clear distinction between damage and failure is imposed. Damage mechanisms result in pre-peak nonlinearity in the stress strain curve. Four internal state variables (ISVs) are utilized to control the damage and failure degradation. All damage is said to result from matrix microdamage, and a single ISV marks the micro-damage evolution as it is used to degrade the transverse and shear moduli of the lamina using a set of experimentally obtainable matrix microdamage functions. Three separate failure ISVs are used to incorporate failure due to fiber breakage, mode I matrix cracking, and mode II matrix cracking. Failure initiation is determined using a failure criterion, and the evolution of these ISVs is controlled by a set of traction-separation laws. The traction separation laws are postulated such that the area under the curves is equal to the fracture toughness of the material associated with the corresponding failure mechanism. A characteristic finite element length is used to transform the traction-separation laws into stress-strain laws. The ISV evolution equations are derived in a thermodynamically consistent manner by invoking the stationary principle on the total work of the system with respect to each ISV. A novel feature is the inclusion of both pre-peak damage and appropriately scaled, post-peak strain softening failure. Also, the characteristic elements used in the failure degradation scheme are calculated using the element nodal coordinates, rather than simply the square root of the area of the element.

Pineda, Evan J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management

This paper describes a new representation that enables rigorous definition and decomposition of both nominal and off-nominal system goals and functions: the Goal-Function Tree (GFT). GFTs extend the concept and process of functional decomposition, utilizing state variables as a key mechanism to ensure physical and logical consistency and completeness of the decomposition of goals (requirements) and functions, and enabling full and complete traceabilitiy to the design. The GFT also provides for means to define and represent off-nominal goals and functions that are activated when the system's nominal goals are not met. The physical accuracy of the GFT, and its ability to represent both nominal and off-nominal goals enable the GFT to be used for various analyses of the system, including assessments of the completeness and traceability of system goals and functions, the coverage of fault management failure detections, and definition of system failure scenarios.

Johnson, Stephen B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Numerical Predictions of Damage and Failure in Carbon Fiber Reinforced Laminates Using a Thermodynamically-Based Work Potential Theory

composite materials↗

NASA NTRS2014

Visualizing Flutter Mechanism as Traveling Wave Through Animation of Simulation Results for the Semi-Span Super-Sonic Transport Wind-Tunnel Model

It has long been recognized that frequency and phasing of structural modes in the presence of airflow play a fundamental role in the occurrence of flutter. Animation of simulation results for the long, slender Semi-Span Super-Sonic Transport (S4T) wind-tunnel model demonstrates that, for the case of mass-ballasted nacelles, the flutter mode can be described as a traveling wave propagating downstream. Such a characterization provides certain insights, such as (1) describing the means by which energy is transferred from the airflow to the structure, (2) identifying airspeed as an upper limit for speed of wave propagation, (3) providing an interpretation for a companion mode that coalesces in frequency with the flutter mode but becomes very well damped, (4) providing an explanation for bursts of response to uniform turbulence, and (5) providing an explanation for loss of low frequency (lead) phase margin with increases in dynamic pressure (at constant Mach number) for feedback systems that use sensors located upstream from active control surfaces. Results from simulation animation, simplified modeling, and wind-tunnel testing are presented for comparison. The simulation animation was generated using double time-integration in Simulink of vertical accelerometer signals distributed over wing and fuselage, along with time histories for actuated control surfaces. Crossing points for a zero-elevation reference plane were tracked along a network of lines connecting the accelerometer locations. Accelerometer signals were used in preference to modal displacement state variables in anticipation that the technique could be used to animate motion of the actual wind-tunnel model using data acquired during testing. Double integration of wind-tunnel accelerometer signals introduced severe drift even with removal of both position and rate biases such that the technique does not currently work. Using wind-tunnel data to drive a Kalman filter based upon fitting coefficients to analytical mode shapes might provide a better means to animate the wind tunnel data.

Christhilf, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assimilation of Freeze - Thaw Observations into the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model

The land surface freeze-thaw (F-T) state plays a key role in the hydrological and carbon cycles and thus affects water and energy exchanges and vegetation productivity at the land surface. In this study, we developed an F-T assimilation algorithm for the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling and assimilation framework. The algorithm includes a newly developed observation operator that diagnoses the landscape F-T state in the GEOS-5 Catchment land surface model. The F-T analysis is a rule-based approach that adjusts Catchment model state variables in response to binary F-T observations, while also considering forecast and observation errors. A regional observing system simulation experiment was conducted using synthetically generated F-T observations. The assimilation of perfect (error-free) F-T observations reduced the root-mean-square errors (RMSE) of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.206 C and 0.061 C, respectively, when compared to model estimates (equivalent to a relative RMSE reduction of 6.7 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively). For a maximum classification error (CEmax) of 10 percent in the synthetic F-T observations, the F-T assimilation reduced the RMSE of surface temperature and soil temperature by 0.178 C and 0.036 C, respectively. For CEmax=20 percent, the F-T assimilation still reduces the RMSE of model surface temperature estimates by 0.149 C but yields no improvement over the model soil temperature estimates. The F-T assimilation scheme is being developed to exploit planned operational F-T products from the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission.

GEOS5↗

NASA NTRS2012

CARVE: The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment

The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is a NASA Earth Ventures (EV-1) investigation designed to quantify correlations between atmospheric and surface state variables for the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems through intensive seasonal aircraft campaigns, ground-based observations, and analysis sustained over a 5-year mission. CARVE bridges critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of Arctic ecosystems, linkages between the Arctic hydrologic and terrestrial carbon cycles, and the feedbacks from fires and thawing permafrost. CARVE's objectives are to: (1) Directly test hypotheses attributing the mobilization of vulnerable Arctic carbon reservoirs to climate warming; (2) Deliver the first direct measurements and detailed maps of CO2 and CH4 sources on regional scales in the Alaskan Arctic; and (3) Demonstrate new remote sensing and modeling capabilities to quantify feedbacks between carbon fluxes and carbon cycle-climate processes in the Arctic (Figure 1). We describe the investigation design and results from 2011 test flights in Alaska.

Arctic Carbon Cycle↗

NASA NTRS2015

SimSup's Loop: A Control Theory Approach to Spacecraft Operator Training

Immersive simulation is a staple of training for many complex system operators, including astronauts and ground operators of spacecraft. However, while much has been written about simulators, simulation facilities, and operator certification programs, the topic of how one develops simulation scenarios to train a spacecraft operator is relatively understated in the literature. In this paper, an approach is presented for using control theory as the basis for developing the immersive simulation scenarios for a spacecraft operator training program. The operator is effectively modeled as a high level controller of lower level hardware and software control loops that affect a select set of system state variables. Simulation scenarios are derived from a STAMP-based hazard analysis of the operator's high and low level control loops. The immersive simulation aspect of the overall training program is characterized by selecting a set of scenarios that expose the operator to the various inadequate control actions that stem from control flaws and inadequate control executions in the different sections of the typical control loop. Results from the application of this approach to the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) mission are provided through an analysis of the simulation scenarios used for operator training and the actual anomalies that occurred during the mission. The simulation scenarios and inflight anomalies are mapped to specific control flaws and inadequate control executions in the different sections of the typical control loop to illustrate the characteristics of anomalies arising from the different sections of the typical control loop (and why it is important for operators to have exposure to these characteristics). Additionally, similarities between the simulation scenarios and inflight anomalies are highlighted to make the case that the simulation scenarios prepared the operators for the mission.

LADEE↗

NASA NTRS2016

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at ~3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, using the product generated by NOAA/NESDIS. Model verification capabilities are also being transitioned to KMD using NCAR's Model *Corresponding author address: Jonathan Case, ENSCO, Inc., 320 Sparkman Dr., Room 3008, Huntsville, AL, 35805. Email: Jonathan.Case-1@nasa.gov Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) software in conjunction with a SPoRT-developed scripting package, in order to quantify and compare errors in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation in the experimental WRF model simulations. This extended abstract and accompanying presentation summarizes the efforts and training done to date to support this unique regional modeling initiative at KMD. To honor the memory of Dr. Peter J. Lamb and his extensive efforts in bolstering weather and climate science and capacity-building in Africa, we offer this contribution to the special Peter J. Lamb symposium. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows. The collaborating international organizations involved in the project are presented in Section 2. Background information on the unique land surface input datasets is presented in Section 3. The hands-on training sessions from March 2014 and June 2015 are described in Section 4. Sample experimental WRF output and verification from the June 2015 training are given in Section 5. A summary is given in Section 6, followed by Acknowledgements and References.

land surface modeling↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA Systems Engineering Research Consortium: Defining the Path to Elegance in Systems

The NASA Systems Engineering Research Consortium was formed at the end of 2010 to study the approaches to producing elegant systems on a consistent basis. This has been a transformative study looking at the engineering and organizational basis of systems engineering. The consortium has engaged in a variety of research topics to determine the path to elegant systems. In the second year of the consortium, a systems engineering framework emerged which structured the approach to systems engineering and guided our research. This led in the third year to set of systems engineering postulates that the consortium is continuing to refine. The consortium has conducted several research projects that have contributed significantly to the understanding of systems engineering. The consortium has surveyed the application of the NASA 17 systems engineering processes, explored the physics and statistics of systems integration, and considered organizational aspects of systems engineering discipline integration. The systems integration methods have included system exergy analysis, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), State Variable Analysis, Multidisciplinary Coupling Analysis (MCA), Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO), System Cost Modelling, System Robustness, and Value Modelling. Organizational studies have included the variability of processes in change evaluations, margin management within the organization, information theory of board structures, social categorization of unintended consequences, and initial looks at applying cognitive science to systems engineering. Consortium members have also studied the bidirectional influence of policy and law with systems engineering.

Watson, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA Systems Engineering Research Consortium: Defining the Path to Elegance in Systems

The NASA Systems Engineering Research Consortium was formed at the end of 2010 to study the approaches to producing elegant systems on a consistent basis. This has been a transformative study looking at the engineering and organizational basis of systems engineering. The consortium has engaged in a variety of research topics to determine the path to elegant systems. In the second year of the consortium, a systems engineering framework emerged which structured the approach to systems engineering and guided our research. This led in the third year to set of systems engineering postulates that the consortium is continuing to refine. The consortium has conducted several research projects that have contributed significantly to the understanding of systems engineering. The consortium has surveyed the application of the NASA 17 systems engineering processes, explored the physics and statistics of systems integration, and considered organizational aspects of systems engineering discipline integration. The systems integration methods have included system energy analysis, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), State Variable Analysis, Multidisciplinary Coupling Analysis (MCA), Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO), System Cost Modeling, System Robustness, and Value Modeling. Organizational studies have included the variability of processes in change evaluations, margin management within the organization, information theory of board structures, social categorization of unintended consequences, and initial looks at applying cognitive science to systems engineering. Consortium members have also studied the bidirectional influence of policy and law with systems engineering.

Watson, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assimilation of Gridded Terrestrial Water Storage Observations from GRACE into a Land Surface Model

Observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 km(sup 2) at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This work proposes a variant of existing ensemble-based GRACE-TWS data assimilation schemes. The new algorithm differs in how the analysis increments are computed and applied. Existing schemes correlate the uncertainty in the modeled monthly TWS estimates with errors in the soil moisture profile state variables at a single instant in the month and then apply the increment either at the end of the month or gradually throughout the month. The proposed new scheme first computes increments for each day of the month and then applies the average of those increments at the beginning of the month. The new scheme therefore better reflects submonthly variations in TWS errors. The new and existing schemes are investigated here using gridded GRACE-TWS observations. The assimilation results are validated at the monthly time scale, using in situ measurements of groundwater depth and soil moisture across the U.S. The new assimilation scheme yields improved (although not in a statistically significant sense) skill metrics for groundwater compared to the open-loop (no assimilation) simulations and compared to the existing assimilation schemes. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture, which have a shorter memory and receive smaller increments from TWS assimilation than groundwater. These results motivate future efforts to combine GRACE-TWS observations with observations that are more sensitive to surface soil moisture, such as L-band brightness temperature observations from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) or Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). Finally, we demonstrate that the scaling parameters that are applied to the GRACE observations prior to assimilation should be consistent with the land surface model that is used within the assimilation system.

GRACE↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Computationally-Efficient, Multi-Mechanism Based Framework for the Comprehensive Modeling of the Evolutionary Behavior of Shape Memory Alloys

The report summarizes the accomplishments made during the 4-year duration of the project. Here, the major emphasis is placed on the different tasks performed by the two research teams; i.e., the modeling activities by the University of Akron (UA) team and the experimental and neutron diffraction studies conducted by the University of Central Florida (UCF) team, during this 4-year period. Further technical details are given in the upcoming sections by UA and UCF for each of the milestones/years (together with the corresponding figures and captions).The project majorly involved the development, validation, and application of a general theoretical model that is capable of capturing the nonlinear hysteretic responses, including pseudoelasticity, shape memory effect, rate-dependency, multi-axiality, asymmetry in tension versus compression response of shape memory alloys. Among the targeted goals for the SMA model was its ability to account for the evolutionary character response (including transient and long term behavior under sustained cycles) for both conventional and high temperature (HT) SMAs, as well as being able to simulate some of the devices which exploit these unique material systems. This required extensive (uniaxial and multi-axial) experiments needed to guide us in calibrating and characterizing the model. Moreover, since the model is formulated on the theoretical notion of internal state variables (ISVs), neutron diffraction experiments were needed to establish the linkage between the micromechanical changes and these ISVs. In addition, the design of the model should allow easy implementation in large scale finite element application to study the behavior of devices making use of these SMA materials under different loading controls. Summary of the activities, progress/achievements made during this period is given below in details for the University of Akron and the University (Section 2.0) of Central Florida (Section 3.0).

Alloys↗

NASA NTRS2017

Water Hammer Simulations of Monomethylhydrazine Propellant

Fluid Transient analysis is important for the design of spacecraft propulsion system to ensure structural stability of the system in the event of sudden closing or opening of the valve. Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP), a general purpose flow network code developed at NASA/MSFC is capable of simulating pressure surge due to sudden opening or closing of valve when thermodynamic properties of real fluid are available for the entire range of simulation. Specifically GFSSP needs an accurate representation of pressure density relationship in order to predict pressure surge during a fluid transient. Unfortunately, the available thermodynamic property programs such as REFPROP, GASP or GASPAK do not provide the thermodynamic properties of Monomethylhydrazine(MMH). This work illustrates the process used for building a customized table of properties of state variables from available properties and speed of sound that is required by GFSSP for simulation. Good agreement was found between the simulations and measured data. This method can be adopted for modeling flow networks and systems with other fluids whose properties are not known in detail in order to obtain general technical insight.

Burkhardt, Zachary↗

NASA NTRS2017

Water Hammer Simulations of MMH Propellant - New Capability Demonstration of the Generalized Fluid Flow Simulation Program

Fluid Transient analysis is important for the design of spacecraft propulsion system to ensure structural stability of the system in the event of sudden closing or opening of the valve. Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP), a general purpose flow network code developed at NASA/MSFC is capable of simulating pressure surge due to sudden opening or closing of valve when thermodynamic properties of real fluid are available for the entire range of simulation. Specifically GFSSP needs an accurate representation of pressure-density relationship in order to predict pressure surge during a fluid transient. Unfortunately, the available thermodynamic property programs such as REFPROP, GASP or GASPAK does not provide the thermodynamic properties of Monomethylhydrazine (MMH). This paper will illustrate the process used for building a customized table of properties of state variables from available properties and speed of sound that is required by GFSSP for simulation. Good agreement was found between the simulations and measured data. This method can be adopted for modeling flow networks and systems with other fluids whose properties are not known in detail in order to obtain general technical insight. Rigorous code validation of this approach will be done and reported at a future date.

Burkhardt, Z.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Use of MERRA-2 Near Surface Meteorology to Understand the Behavior of Planetary Boundary Layer Heights Derived from Wind Profiler Data over the US Great Plains

The atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that underlies the MERRA-2 reanalysis includes a suite of physical parameterizations that describe the processes that occur in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The data assimilation system assures that the atmospheric state variables used as input to these parameterizations are constrained to the best fit to all of the available observations. Many studies, however, have shown that the GCM-based estimates of MERRA-2 PBL heights are biased high, and so are not reliable for application related to constituent transport or the carbon cycle. A new 20-year record of PBL heights was derived from Wind Profiler (WP) backscatter data measured at a wide network of stations throughout the US Great Plains and has been validated against independent estimates. The behavior of these PBL heights shows geographical and temporal variations that are difficult to attribute to particular physical processes without additional information that are not part of the observational record. In the present study, we use information on physical processes from MERRA-2 to understand the behavior of the WP derived PBL heights. The behavior of the annual cycle of both MERRA-2 and WP PBL heights shows three classes of behavior: (i) canonical, where the annual cycle follows the annual cycle of the sun, (ii) delayed, where the PBL height reaches its annual maximum after the annual maximum of the solar insolation, and (iii) double maxima, where the PBL height begins to rise with the solar insolation but falls sometimes during the summer and then rises again. Although the magnitude of these types of variations is described by the WP PBL record, the explanation for these behaviors and the relationship to local precipitation, temperature, hydrology and sensible and latent heat fluxes is articulated using information from MERRA-2.

MERRA↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Use of MERRA-2 Near Surface Meteorology to Understand the Behavior of Planetary Boundary Layer Heights Derived from Wind Profiler Data over the US Great Plains

The atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that underlies the MERRA-2 reanalysis includes a suite of physical parameterizations that describe the processes that occur in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The data assimilation system assures that the atmospheric state variables used as input to these parameterizations are constrained to the best fit to all of the available observations. Many studies, however, have shown that the GCM-based estimates of MERRA-2 PBL heights are biased high, and so are not reliable for boundary layer studies.A 20-year record of PBL heights was derived from Wind Profiler (WP) backscatter data measured at a wide network of stations throughout the US Great Plains and has been validated against independent estimates. The behavior of these PBL heights shows geographical and temporal variations that are difficult to attribute to particular physical processes without additional information that are not part of the observational record.In the present study, we use information on physical processes from MERRA-2 to understand the behavior of the WP derived PBL heights. The behavior of the annual cycle of both MERRA-2 and WP PBL heights shows four classes of behavior: (i) canonical, characterized by a monthly progression in PBL height that follows the solar insolation, (ii) double peak, characterized by canonical behavior that is interrupted by a minimum in July, (iii) late peak, characterized by a suppressed heights in May and June, and return to canonical in July and August, and (iv) early peak where the PBL height rises with solar insolation but is suppressed later in the summer. The explanation for these behaviors and the relationship to local precipitation, temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, net radiation and aerosol load is articulated using information from MERRA-2.

Salmun, Haydee↗

NASA NTRS2019

Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for Safety Monitoring in Low-Altitude Airspace

The rising number of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) expected in the next decade will enable a new series of commercial, service, and military operations in low altitude airspace as well as above densely populated areas. These operations may include on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement operations, traffic surveillance and many more. Such unprecedented scenarios create the need for robust, efficient ways to monitor the UAV state in time to guarantee safety and mitigate contingencies throughout the operations. This work proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology that utilizes realtime measurements of an autonomous UAV following a series of way-points. Two different methods, based on sinusoidal acceleration profiles and high-order splines, are utilized to generate the predicted path. The monitoring approach includes dynamic trajectory re-planning in the event of unexpected detour or hovering of the UAV during flight. It can be further extended to different vehicle types, to quantify uncertainty affecting the state variables, e.g., aerodynamic and other environmental effects, and can also be implemented to prognosticate safety-critical metrics which depend on the estimated flight path and required thrust. The proposed framework is implemented on a simplified, scalable UAV modeling and control system traversing 3D trajectories. Results presented include examples of real-time predictions of the UAV trajectories during flight and a critical analysis of the proposed scenarios under uncertainty constraints.

UAV trajectory prognosis↗