Redshift distributions of galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification shear catalogue and implications for weak lensing
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79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
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Physics-Informed and Data-Driven Prediction of Residual Stress in Three-Dimensional Machining
Efficient and reliable prediction of machining-induced residual stress (RS) is a key requirement for truly integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Currently available process modeling approaches, including empirical, analytical, and numerical methodologies lack predictive power and require substantial calibration and validation data. Moreover, most model-based approaches consider only two-dimensional (2D) (i.e., orthogonal), cutting processes. Meanwhile, industrial processes such as milling, turning, and drilling are inherently three-dimensional (3D). The present work attempts to bridge the gap between 2D and 3D through careful consideration of the process physics, including geometric, kinematic, and size-effect constraints to realize robust prediction of how RS develops in 3D machining. Using a novel in-situ experimental technique and digital image correlation (DIC) to determine equivalent Hertzian contact widths, contact pressures, and friction coefficients, the proposed methodology leverages a discretized conversion algorithm that includes multi-pass shakedown effects. This paper presents a semi-analytical model to predict machining-induced RS in 3D turning operations, which are used representatively for 3D processes more generally. Rather than follow a ‘brute force’ 3D FEM approach or conduct countless experiments to train a purely data-driven machine learning algorithm, the proposed approach builds on previous 2D modeling work. Through careful consideration of the process physics, including complex geometry/kinematic considerations of 3D turning, the authors demonstrated an experimentally calibrated approach, as well as validation based on published RS data. Model predictions and previously published measurement data of RS depth profiles for turning of Inconel 718 were compared for a range of process parameters. Correlation between the proposed 3D model and validation data was found to be within the margin of experimental error for most conditions. The proposed model appears to capture the overall behavior of 3D RS depth profiles with acceptable accuracy, particularly the key metrics of near-surface stress, peak stress magnitude and location, as well as overall stress profile depth. This report presents a physics-informed, data-driven approach for efficient calibration of a 2D model for machining-induced RS through DIC analysis of in-situ characterized subsurface displacement fields.
42 ENGINEERING↗
FY2017 Report on NISC Measurements and Detector Simulations
FY17 work focused on automation, both of the measurement analysis and comparison of simulations. The experimental apparatus was relocated and weeks of continuous measurements of the spontaneous fission source 252 Cf was performed. Programs were developed to automate the conversion of measurements into ROOT data framework files with a simple terminal input. The complete analysis of the measurement (which includes energy calibration and the identification of correlated counts) can now be completed with a documented process which involves one simple execution line as well. Finally, the hurdles of slow MCNP simulations resulting in low simulation statistics have been overcome with the generation of multi-run suites which make use of the highperformance computing resources at LANL. Preliminary comparisons of measurements and simulations have been performed and will be the focus of FY18 work.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Assessing Nutrient and Carbon Responses to Agricultural Conservation Practices in Two Midwest Watersheds
The United States is undertaking efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy in response to the heightened impacts of climate change, which are largely attributed to decades of carbon-intensive development. A concerted effort by the energy sector to achieve net-zero carbon emissions is aimed at strategically reducing the carbon footprint of the energy supply chain, particularly in the production of feedstocks for biofuels. The production of biofuels relies heavily on land use and management practices in biomass cultivation. Among other factors, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a crucial role in the biofuel carbon cycle, impacting land productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality. The process of carbon drawdown during plant growth and storage helps to mitigate the release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into the atmosphere. Another key parameter is the release of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) — a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 273 times that of CO 2 — from soil. While prioritizing low-carbon production, sustainable bioenergy also necessitates improved water quality and ecosystem services. Agricultural conservation practices can contribute to enhanced soil health and reduce nutrient and sediment loss into streams. However, studies that explore the broader impact of these practices on soil carbon storage and N 2 O emissions at a watershed scale are limited. Specifically, our understanding of how low-carbon feedstock production and management affect nutrient cycle dynamics is incomplete. This study assesses watershed responses to land management practices in two agriculturally dominant watersheds: the Raccoon River watershed and the Southfork of Iowa River watershed. The study focuses on carbon and nutrient dynamics, characterizing spatial and temporal variations in SOC, N 2 O, and nutrient loadings to examine the relationship between nutrient and carbon responses and agricultural conservation practices. The study employs the newly developed Soil Water Analysis Tool for Carbon (SWAT-C) model, calibrated using 20 years’ of climate and water monitoring data, to simulate and evaluate two agricultural conservation practices: no-till and crop residue harvest with cover crop planting. We compared the calibrated SWAT-C model with a historical baseline model, which allowed us to analyze various aspects of the watershed, including stream flow, suspended sediments, nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, SOC at different depths, and N 2 O emissions from topsoil. Our SWAT-C modeling results indicate that, compared with results from the historical baseline model, no-till practices are positively correlated with SOC accumulation, reduced N 2 O emissions, and decreased soil loss. We also observed no change or slightly increased nitrogen and phosphorus loss to water bodies in the watersheds compared with the baseline. Conversely, crop residue harvest with cover crop planting improved water quality by reducing nutrient and soil losses but also increased N 2 O emissions. This SWAT-C modeling study establishes the groundwork for further smaller-scale and/or sub-basin-level assessments of nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon cycles. It provides valuable science-based insights to inform policy decisions — particularly in the context of transitioning to biofuel feedstock production in these watersheds — by addressing concerns about nutrient exports to local water bodies and, ultimately, the Mississippi River.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluation of S190A radiometric exposure test data
The S190A preflight radiometric exposure test data generated as part of preflight and system test of KM-002 Sequence 29 on flight camera S/N 002 was analyzed. The analysis was to determine camera system transmission using available data which included: (1) films exposed to a calibrated light source subject; (2) filter transmission data; (3) calibrated light source data; (4) density vs. log10 exposure curves for the films; and (5) spectral sensitometric data for the films. The procedure used is outlined, and includes the data and a transmission matrix as a function of field position for nine measured points on each station-film-filter-aperture-shutter speed combination.
Lockwood, H. E.↗
Quantitative mapping of chlorophyll a distributions in coastal zones by remote sensing
Results of experiments conducted in the James River, Virginia and the New York Bight indicate that concurrently collected sea-truth measurements may be used to calibrate remotely sensed multispectral scanner data collected over each of these environmentally different scenes. Statistical stepwise regression analysis was used in both experiments to incorporate significant bands of MSS data into regression equations that quantitatively relate remotely sensed data to water quality parameters, such as chlorophyll a and suspended sediment. These regression equations are used to map synoptic distributions of chlorophyll a in the remotely sensed scenes.
Johnson, R. W.↗
The application of Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM) thermal data to snow hydrology
The application of HCMM thermal infrared data to snow hydrology and the prediction of snowmelt runoff was evaluated. Data for the Salt Verde watershed in central Arizona and the southern Sierra Nevada in California were analyzed and compared to LANDSAT and NOAA satellite data, U-2 thermal data, and other correlative data. It was determined that HCMM thermal imagery provides data as accurate for snow mapping as does visible imagery, and that in comparison with the reslution of other satellite imagery, it may be the most useful. Data from the HCMM thermal channel, with careful calibration, provides useful snow surface temperature data for hydrological purposes. An approach to an automated method of analysis is presented.
Barnes, J. C.↗
Static calibration for measurement of loads in wind tunnel tests on Shuttle surface tiles
A description is given of the procedures used for the static calibrations of the Coe (1981) sensor array to determine normal force, pitching moment, and rolling moment from the ensemble of sensor outputs. The use of independent data to confirm the validity of the calibration is also described. Two methods are used in calibrating the Coe sensors. In the first, calibration loads and readings are arranged in matrix form and are assumed to be related in a linear fashion. In the second, each Coe sensor reading is regarded as a sum of contributions from each of the calibration loads. It is shown that the Coe load sensors, in conjunction with either of two data analysis methods, can be used to determine the forces and moments experienced by a Shuttle TPS tile.
Rummler, D. R.↗
The Saturn spectrum in the EUV - Electron excited hydrogen
Recent laboratory observations of electron excited H2 in the EUV have brought about the realization that higher Rydberg series band systems make a significant contribution to the emission spectrum. Theoretical cross section estimates for the excitation of the D, D-prime, B-prime, and B-double-prime states agree with these results. Model calculations for particle excitation of the Saturn atmosphere, including the higher states, now show excellent agreement with Voyager auroral and dayside equatorial spectra. The model data also confirm the relative spectral response calibration of the Voyager instruments, providing a basis for accurate analysis of the excitation processes on both Jupiter and Saturn.
Shemansky, D. E.↗
Scan angle dependence of radiance recorded by the NOAA-AVHRR
NOAA-AVHRR data is being used to monitor global vegetation type and condition and to study various environmental factors in addition to performance of meteorological functions. The AVHRR instrument has + or - 54 deg as maximum scan angle limits and it is necessary to be aware of the effects of sun-target-sensor geometry at extreme scan angles to be able to properly interpret the satellite images. In order to interpret the images for vegetation type and condition analysis, it is necessary to calibrate back to the nadir view position. Both simulation studies and empirical investigations with digital scanner data have been performed in order to sufficiently understand the effects of scan angle and sun angle, as well as the effects of atmospheric scattering, to eventually perform adequate calibrations. Not surprisingly, the effects are large and studies are continuing to provide improved calibrations.
Duggin, M. J.↗
Data Reduction and Analysis from the SOHO Spacecraft
We continue to analyze and interpret data from the MTOF sensor on SoHO, using recently obtained calibration data to improve our understanding of instrument response. We have presented a number of talks demonstrating the excellent instrument resolution and also displaying the temporal behavior of solar wind Fe(sup 54) and Fe(sup 56) isotopes and the element Cr(52). In addition, the isotopic ratios Ne(sup 20)/Ne (sup 22) = (13.8 +/- 0.7) and Ne(sup 20)/Ne(sup 21) = (440 +/- 110) were obtained from MTOF data. These ratios agree with the values obtained from the Apollo foil solar wind experiments and with values which have been derived from measurements on lunar and meteoritic samples.
Ipavich, F. M.↗
Uncertainty Quantification for Quantitative Imaging Holdup Measurements
In nuclear fuel cycle safeguards, special nuclear material "held up" in pipes, ducts, and glove boxes causes significant uncertainty in material-unaccounted-for estimates. Quantitative imaging is a proposed non-destructive assay technique with potential to estimate the holdup mass more accurately and reliably than current techniques. However, uncertainty analysis for quantitative imaging remains a significant challenge. In this work we demonstrate an analysis approach for data acquired with a fast-neutron coded aperture imager. The work includes a calibrated forward model of the imager. Cross-validation indicates that the forward model predicts the imager data typically within 23%; further improvements are forthcoming. A new algorithm based on the chi-squared goodness-of-fit metric then uses the forward model to calculate a holdup confidence interval. The new algorithm removes geometry approximations that previous methods require, making it a more reliable uncertainty estimator.
holdup measurement↗
A modeling analysis program for the JPL table mountain Io sodium cloud data
Research in the third and final year of this project is divided into three main areas: (1) completion of data processing and calibration for 34 of the 1981 Region B/C images, selected from the massive JPL sodium cloud data set; (2) identification and examination of the basic features and observed changes in the morphological characteristics of the sodium cloud images; and (3) successful physical interpretation of these basic features and observed changes using the highly developed numerical sodium cloud model at AER. The modeling analysis has led to a number of definite conclusions regarding the local structure of Io's atmosphere, the gas escape mechanism at Io, and the presence of an east-west electric field and a System III longitudinal asymmetry in the plasma torus. Large scale stability, as well as some smaller scale time variability for both the sodium cloud and the structure of the plasma torus over a several year time period are also discussed.
Smyth, William H.↗
TU-FG-201-05: Varian MPC as a Statistical Process Control Tool
Purpose: Quality assurance in radiotherapy requires the measurement of various machine parameters to ensure they remain within permitted values over time. In Truebeam release 2.0 the Machine Performance Check (MPC) was released allowing beam output and machine axis movements to be assessed in a single test. We aim to evaluate the Varian Machine Performance Check (MPC) as a tool for Statistical Process Control (SPC). Methods: Varian’s MPC tool was used on three Truebeam and one EDGE linac for a period of approximately one year. MPC was commissioned against independent systems. After this period the data were reviewed to determine whether or not the MPC was useful as a process control tool. Analyses on individual tests were analysed using Shewhart control plots, using Matlab for analysis. Principal component analysis was used to determine if a multivariate model was of any benefit in analysing the data. Results: Control charts were found to be useful to detect beam output changes, worn T-nuts and jaw calibration issues. Upper and lower control limits were defined at the 95% level. Multivariate SPC was performed using Principal Component Analysis. We found little evidence of clustering beyond that which might be naively expected such as beam uniformity and beam output. Whilst this makes multivariate analysis of little use it suggests that each test is giving independent information. Conclusion: The variety of independent parameters tested in MPC makes it a sensitive tool for routine machine QA. We have determined that using control charts in our QA programme would rapidly detect changes in machine performance. The use of control charts allows large quantities of tests to be performed on all linacs without visual inspection of all results. The use of control limits alerts users when data are inconsistent with previous measurements before they become out of specification. A. Carver has received a speaker’s honorarium from Varian.
07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
Bayesian calibration of groundwater models with input data uncertainty
Effective water resources management typically relies on numerical models to analyze groundwater flow and solute transport processes. Groundwater models are often subject to input data uncertainty, as some inputs (such as recharge and well pumping rates) are estimated and subject to uncertainty. Current practices of groundwater model calibration often overlook uncertainties in input data; this can lead to biased parameter estimates and compromised predictions. Through a synthetic case study of surface–ground water interaction under changing pumping conditions and land use, we investigate the impacts of uncertain pumping and recharge rates on model calibration and uncertainty analysis. We then present a Bayesian framework of model calibration to handle uncertain input of groundwater models. The framework implements a marginalizing step to account for input data uncertainty when evaluating likelihood. It was found that not accounting for input uncertainty may lead to biased, overconfident parameter estimates because parameters could be over–adjusted to compensate for possible input data errors. Parameter compensation can have deleterious impacts when the calibrated model is used to make forecast under a scenario that is different from calibration conditions. By marginalizing input data uncertainty, the Bayesian calibration approach effectively alleviates parameter compensation and gives more accurate predictions in the synthetic case study. The marginalizing Bayesian method also decomposes prediction uncertainty into uncertainties contributed by parameters, input data, and measurements. Furthermore, the results underscore the need to account for input uncertainty to better inform postmodeling decision making.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind
The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .
08 HYDROGEN↗
A Ricin Forensic Profiling Approach Based on a Complex Set of Biomarkers
A forensic method for the retrospective determination of preparation methods used for illicit ricin toxin production was developed. The method was based on a complex set of biomarkers, including carbohydrates, fatty acids, seed storage proteins, in combination with data on ricin and Ricinus communis agglutinin. The analyses were performed on samples prepared from four castor bean plant ( Ricinus communis ) cultivars by four different sample preparation methods (PM1 – PM4) ranging from simple disintegration of the castor beans to multi-step preparation methods including different protein precipitation methods. Comprehensive analytical data was collected by use of a range of analytical methods and robust orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis- models (OPLS-DA) were constructed based on the calibration set. By the use of a decision tree and two OPLS-DA models, the sample preparation methods of a test set of ricin preparations were determined. The model statistics of the two models were good and a 100% rate of correct predictions of the test set was achieved.
Fredriksson, Sten-Åke (ORCID:0000000237131990)↗
Relationships of soil, grass, and bedrock over the Kaweah serpentine melange through spectral mixture analysis of AVIRIS data
A linear mixing model is used to model the spectral variability of an AVIRIS scene from the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada and calibrate these radiance data to reflectance. Five spectral endmembers from the AVIRIS data, plus an ideal 'shade' endmember were required to model the continuum reflectance of each pixel in the image. Three of the endmembers were interpreted to model the surface constituents green vegetation, dry grass, and illumination. These are the main transient surface constituents that are expected to change with shifts in land use or climatic influences and viewing conditions ('shade' only). The spectral distinction between the other three endmembers is very small, yet the spatial distributions are coherent and interpretable. These distributions cross anthropogenic and vegetation boundaries and are best interpreted as different soil types. Comparison of the fraction images to the bedrock geology maps indicates that substrate composition must be a factor contributing to the spectral properties of these endmembers. Detailed examination of the reflectance spectra of the three soil endmembers reveals that differences in the amount of ferric and ferrous iron and/or organic constituents in the soils is largely responsible for the differences in spectral properties of these endmembers.
Mustard, John F.↗