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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Microbial Enrichments Contribute to Characterization Of Desert Tortoise Gut Microbiota

Abstract Desert tortoises play ecologically significant roles, including plant seed dispersal and mineral cycling, and yet little is known about microbial members that are critical to their gut and overall health. Tortoises consume recalcitrant plant material, which their gut microbiota degrades and converts into usable metabolites and nutrients for the tortoise. Findings from tortoise gut microbiomes may translate well into biotechnological applications as these microbes have evolved to efficiently degrade recalcitrant substrates and generate useful products. In this study, we cultivated microbial communities from desert tortoise fecal samples following a targeted anaerobic enrichment for microbes involved in deconstruction and utilization of plant biomass. We employed 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing to compare cultivated communities to initial fecal source material and found high abundances of Firmicutes and Bacteroidota typically associated with biomass deconstruction in all cultivated samples. Significantly decreased microbial diversity was observed in the cultivated microbial communities, yet several key taxa thrived in lignocellulose enrichments, includingLachnospiraceaeandEnterococcus. Additionally, cultivated communities produced short-chain fatty acids under anaerobic conditions, and their growth and metabolic output provide evidence of their viability in the initial fecal communities. Overall, this study adds to the limited understanding of reptilian herbivore microbiota, and offers a path towards biotechnological translation based on the ability of the cultivated communities to convert lignocellulose directly to acetate, propionate, and butyrate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sparse non-Markovian Noise Modeling of Transmon-Based Multi-Qubit Operations

The influence of noise on quantum dynamics is one of the main factors preventing current quantum processors from performing accurate quantum computations. Sufficient noise characterization and modeling can provide key insights into the effect of noise on quantum algorithms and inform the design of targeted error protection protocols. However, constructing effective noise models that are sparse in model parameters, yet predictive can be challenging. In this work, we present an approach for effective noise modeling of multi-qubit operations on transmon-based devices. Through a comprehensive characterization of seven devices offered by the IBM Quantum Platform, we show that the model can capture and predict a wide range of single- and two-qubit behaviors, including non-Markovian effects resulting from spatiotemporally correlated noise sources. The model’s predictive power is further highlighted through multi-qubit dynamical decoupling demonstrations and an implementation of the variational quantum eigensolver. As a training proxy for the hardware, we show that the model can predict expectation values within a relative error of 0.5%; this is a sevenfold improvement over default hardware noise models. Through these demonstrations, we highlight key error sources in superconducting qubits and illustrate the utility of reduced noise models for predicting hardware dynamics.

open quantum systems & decoherence↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aerosol-deep convection interaction based on joint cell-thermal tracking in Large Eddy Simulations during the TRACER campaign

In cumulus clouds, aerosol concentrations control cloud droplet concentrations, modifying cloud radiative properties, precipitation processes, and cloud electrification. However, mechanisms of aerosol-deep convection interactions are not well understood due to complex cloud dynamics and microphysics. We investigate the interaction of aerosols with isolated deep convection using Large Eddy Simulations of two cases during the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) near Houston, Texas, using a joint cell-thermal tracking algorithm. Cumulus thermals are droplet generators, since supersaturation and droplet nucleation coincide with thermal centers, where the strongest updrafts occur. Primary ice crystal formation does not take place inside thermals, but at layers where previous thermals detrained moisture. As subsequent thermals containing supercooled droplets penetrate these layers, hail and graupel form at or near these thermals. Higher aerosol concentrations result in higher droplet concentrations that suppress drizzle, delay warm rain processes, and transport more moisture aloft. This increases snow and ice amount, as well as graupel and hail, leading to more lightning. Polluted thermals initiate at slightly higher altitudes, and are slightly larger and faster, suggesting a weak invigoration. We also find more thermals per cell, but fewer isolated cells, since convection is more aggregated and intense, especially near the end of the 24 h simulation. Non-linear mesoscale feedback likely triggered by temperature and moisture responses to aerosol-thermal interactions causes the aggregation. Time-lagged aerosol-reinitialization experiments show that the mesoscale response is the predominant forcing for the invigoration. These changes happen within one day, on a smaller scale than previously suggested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic neutrino decoupling and its observable imprints: insights from entropic-dual transport

Abstract Very different processes characterize the decoupling of neutrinos to form the cosmic neutrino background (CνB) and the much later decoupling of photons from thermal equilibrium to form the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The CνB emerges from the fuzzy, energy-dependent neutrinosphere and encodes the physics operating in the early universe in the temperature rangeT∼ 10 MeV toT∼ 10 keV. This is the epoch where beyond Standard Model (BSM) physics, especially in the neutrino sector, may be influential in setting the light element abundances, the necessarily distorted fossil neutrino energy spectra, and other light particle energy density contributions. Here we use techniques honed in extensive CMB studies to analyze the CνB as calculated in detailed neutrino energy transport and nuclear reaction simulations of the protracted weak decoupling and primordial nucleosynthesis epochs. Our moment method, relative entropy, and differential visibility approach can leverage future high precision CMB and light element primordial abundance measurements to provide new insights into the CνB and any BSM physics it encodes. We demonstrate that the evolution of the energy spectrum of the CνB throughout the weak decoupling epoch is accurately captured in the Standard Model by only three parameters per species, a non-trivial conclusion given the deviation from thermal equilibrium and the impact of the decrease of electron-positron pairs. Furthermore, we can interpret each of the three parameters as physical characteristics of a non-equilibrium system. Though the treatment presented here makes some simplifying assumptions including ignoring neutrino flavor oscillations, the success of our compact description within the Standard Model motivates its use also in BSM scenarios. We further demonstrate how observations of primordial light element abundances can be used to place constraints on the CνB energy spectrum, deriving response functions that can be applied for general deviations from a thermal spectrum. Combined with the description of those deviations that we develop here, our methods provide a convenient and powerful framework to constrain the impact of BSM physics on the CνB.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Power and particle exhaust in the ST-E1 fusion power plant

Power exhaust challenges and potential solutions for a 5 m major radius, low-aspect ratio burning tokamak have been explored. 1D edge plasma models have been used to screen for access to detachment using short and long outer divertor legs in double and single null configurations, using Ar as the primary impurity and assuming tungsten plasma-facing components (PFCs). These show that detachment access can be accessed for all but the most conservative assumptions on scrape-off layer (SOL) width and power, but that trade-offs will be required between magnet engineering and the size of the acceptable window of as-yet uncertain plasma parameters. SOLPS-ITER was used to further model selected plasma scenarios, confirming that Ar seeding can be used to achieve dissipative divertor scenarios with peak deposited heat fluxes below 15 MWm -2 . Initial scoping of first wall loads and positioning of limiters has been carried out, showing the feasibility of protecting the breeding blanket wall during steady state without impeding tritium breeding. Initial PFC technology selection is also presented, identifying this as a critical area where further work is needed to find an attractive solution for helium-cooled PFCs that can handle high heat fluxes without excessive power requirements. Key questions and trade-offs for concept development have been identified, including: how to achieve high radiation for reduction of SOL power without core performance degradation; whether power exhaust can be well-controlled in a double null plasma; mechanical design and materials challenges of high-heat flux PFCs; and control of material erosion, redeposition and tritium retention.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modern insights into the mechanisms of neptunium oxalate decomposition

Neptunium oxalate (Np(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O) is a historically relevant solid phase used in nuclear processing as a precursor for neptunium dioxide (NpO 2 ). Although Np oxalate has been synthesized and used for NpO 2 production for decades, the thermal decomposition mechanism of this phase remains poorly understood and has not been evaluated in over 30 years. Conflicting reports in historical literature suggest either a direct conversion from anhydrous oxalate to NpO 2 or a decomposition that includes the formation of Np carbonate or oxidized Np intermediate phases. In this work, we reexamine the decomposition pathway of Np(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O using thermal analysis coupled with evolved gas analysis and temperature-dependent Raman spectroscopy to elucidate decomposition mechanisms and intermediate phases using modern analytical techniques. Thermal analysis revealed a three-stage decomposition process, including dehydration below 200 °C, oxalate breakdown between 170 and 370 °C, and NpO 2 formation by 500 °C. However, an unidentified plateau in the thermal data was observed during measurements. Raman spectroscopy confirmed the stages of decomposition, and in the analysis of potential intermediate phases, no carbonate phases or Np 2 O 5 were identified. Raman data suggest that residual oxalate or nonstoichiometric oxide are present during decomposition before pure NpO 2 is formed. These findings clarify aspects of the Np oxalate decomposition mechanism and address longstanding discrepancies in the literature, with a specific focus on Np-specific materials chemistry.

Lawson, Kathryn M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Power Lane County Electric Grid Handbook

In 2024, Lane Couty was selected to participate in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy to Community program. Through the program, National Laboratory researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and the National Laboratory of the Rockies provide three years of technical assistance to Lane County and their project partners: the Center for Rural Livelihoods, Springfield Utility Board, and Emerald People’s Utility District. The project, named Power Lane County, aims to improve local electric system affordability, reliability and resilience in the face of natural hazards and potentially rising loads. The Power Lane County Electric Grid Handbook establishes a foundational understanding of the energy landscape and electric grid in Lane County to inform community engagement, education, and analysis in future project phases. This document synthesizes public data and utility and stakeholder engagement, including utility interviews to give the reader a comprehensive view of the challenges facing Lane County's electric system and the opportunities to address them

Electricity↗
DOE OSTI2023

A physics informed bayesian optimization approach for material design: application to NiTi shape memory alloys

Abstract The design of materials and identification of optimal processing parameters constitute a complex and challenging task, necessitating efficient utilization of available data. Bayesian Optimization (BO) has gained popularity in materials design due to its ability to work with minimal data. However, many BO-based frameworks predominantly rely on statistical information, in the form of input-output data, and assume black-box objective functions. In practice, designers often possess knowledge of the underlying physical laws governing a material system, rendering the objective function not entirely black-box, as some information is partially observable. In this study, we propose a physics-informed BO approach that integrates physics-infused kernels to effectively leverage both statistical and physical information in the decision-making process. We demonstrate that this method significantly improves decision-making efficiency and enables more data-efficient BO. The applicability of this approach is showcased through the design of NiTi shape memory alloys, where the optimal processing parameters are identified to maximize the transformation temperature.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diagnostic diagrams for ram pressure stripped candidates

ABSTRACT This paper presents a method for finding ram pressure stripped (RPS) galaxy candidates by performing a morphological analysis of galaxy images obtained from the Legacy survey. We consider a sample of about 600 galaxies located in different environments such as groups and clusters, tidally interacting pairs and the field. The sample includes 160 RPS previously classified in the literature into classes from J1 to J5, based on the increasing level of disturbances. Our morphological analysis was done using the astromorphlib software followed by the inspection of diagnostic diagrams involving combinations of different parameters like the asymmetry (A), concentration (C), Sérsic index (n), and bulge strength parameters $F(G,\, M_{20})$. We found that some of those diagrams display a distinct region in which galaxies classified as J3, J4, and J5 decouples from isolated galaxies. We call this region as the morphological transition zone and we also found that tidally interacting galaxies in pairs are predominant within this zone. Nevertheless, after visually inspecting the objects in the morphological transition zone to discard obvious contaminants, we ended up with 33 bona fide new RPS candidates in the studied nearby groups and clusters (Hydra, Fornax, and CLoGS sample), of which one-third show clear evidence of unwinding arms. Future works may potentially further increase significantly the samples of known RPS using such method.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reconstruction and Dissolution of Copper Catalysts during Electrocatalytic Nitrate Reduction

Copper-based electrocatalysts are widely explored for electrochemical nitrate remediation, yet their stability under operating conditions remains poorly understood. While nanoscale and subnanoscale Cu motifs are known to restructure during the nitrate reduction reaction (NO 3 RR), how these transformations translate into irreversible material loss remains unclear. Here, we quantify Cu dissolution during NO 3 RR as a function of catalyst architecture and electrolyte chemistry using two model systems: single-atom Cu (Cu 1 ) and Cu nanoparticles (Cu NP ). Time-resolved leaching measurements, integrated with in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), reveal measurable Cu loss for both catalysts during NO 3 RR. Dissolution is concentrated at the initiation of electrolysis, coinciding with rapid restructuring, and depends strongly on morphology, with Cu NP consistently exhibiting greater Cu loss than Cu 1 . In situ XAS reveals that Cu 1 forms transient metallic clusters under reduction that largely redisperse upon returning to open-circuit voltage, whereas Cu NP undergoes reduction of an oxidized surface layer accompanied by sustained Cu loss during electrolysis. Notably, the presence of nitrate significantly intensifies restructuring and Cu loss, highlighting the critical role of electrolyte composition. Furthermore, these findings establish a direct link between electrochemical restructuring and Cu dissolution, unveiling electrolyte-dependent interactions as key determinants of catalyst durability in electrochemical nitrate conversion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lithium-Ion Battery Design for Grid-Scale Energy Storage App

A software that delivers parameters from energy storage system (ESS) to container, rack, module and single cell design, as well as data analysis on arbitrage energy and frequency regulation of ESS in different regions, has been developed. The Lithium-ion Battery Design for Grid-scale Energy Storage App V1.0 has the capability to output the system, module and cell design with the energy, power, capacity, group method, cost of single cell, and single cell test protocol which break down from input energy storage system data in different regions. The default chemistry of the battery is LiFePO4 and graphite. The energy density of the graphite/LiFePO 4 pouch cell ranges from 100 Wh/kg to 200 Wh/Kg in the software. Graphite/LiFePO 4 pouch cell (up to 1Ah in lab) manufacturing line is also built and can be used to evaluate the test protocol, moreover, for electrolyte evaluation in other ESMI seedling projects. The software enables rapid prototyping to accelerate energy storage research, development, and manufacturing.

Liu, Dianying [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lunar accelerometer network gravitational observatory (LANGO)

With ground-based interferometers detecting hundreds of gravitational-wave (GW) events, GW astronomy has continued to blossom. U.S. and European scientists are developing plans to construct third-generation ground-based interferometers. ESA has proceeded through the mission formulation phase of space-based interferometer in a lower-frequency band, 10 –4 –0.1 Hz. Despite all these exciting developments, there is still a missing frequency band, 0.1–10 Hz. This mid-frequency band is rich with interesting astrophysical events. Coalescence and merger of intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) will occur in this frequency band. Coalescing stellar-mass BHs will pass through this frequency band days before they reach the frequency band of LIGO and Virgo. Detection of such signals would enable a mid-frequency detector to issue an advance notice to the high-frequency GW detectors, as well as to optical, x-ray and γ-ray telescopes. We propose Lunar Accelerometer Network Gravitational Observatory (LANGO) to detect GWs in this frequency band. In the first phase (LANGO 1), we propose to deploy four ambient-temperature (250 K) accelerometers in the tetrahedral or in a square configuration on the hemisphere facing the Earth. After successful operation at 250 K, LANGO would be upgraded to a cryogenic (4 K) version with over two orders of magnitude increased sensitivity (LANGO 2), with coherent rejection of seismic noise implemented. LANGO is a full-tensor detector, capable of determining the source direction and wave polarization. Each test mass (TM) is suspended as a pendulum with resonance frequency ∼ 0.01 Hz, thus is only weakly coupled to the lunar surface horizontally. LANGO is designed to detect the relative motion of globally separated, nearly free, TMs by using the Moon as a large quiet platform. LANGO 1 and 2 accelerometers aim at sensitivities ⩽ 10 –11 m s –2 Hz –1/2 and ⩽ 10 –13 m s –2 Hz –1/2 in the horizontal axes over the frequency band of 1 mHz–10 Hz, which yield GW sensitivities 1.1 x 10 -21 Hz -1/2 and 3.8 x 10 -24 Hz -1/2 at 1 Hz, respectively. The LANGO accelerometers will be 10 3 –10 5 times more sensitive than Apollo seismometers. With such sensitivity, LANGO will also make great contribution to the advancement of lunar geophysics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Imprints of High-Density Nuclear Symmetry Energy on Crustal Fraction of Neutron Star Moment of Inertia

The density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy E sym (ρ) remains the most uncertain aspect of the equation of state (EOS) of supradense neutron-rich nucleonic matter. Utilizing an isospin-dependent parameterization of the nuclear EOS, we investigate the implications of the observational crustal fraction of the neutron star (NS) moment of inertia ΔI/I for the E sym (ρ). We find that symmetry energy parameters significantly influence the ΔI/I, while the EOS of symmetric nuclear matter has a negligible effect. In particular, an increase in the slope L and skewness J sym of symmetry energy results in a larger ΔI/I, whereas an increase in the curvature K sym leads to a reduction in ΔI/I. Moreover, the ΔI/I is shown to have the potential for setting a lower limit of symmetry energy at densities exceeding 3 ρ 0 , particularly when L is constrained to values less than 60 MeV, thereby enhancing our understanding of supradense NS matter.

equation of state↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Bio-Based Composites: Enabling Cellulose Nanofiber (CNF) Incorporation into Composites via Macroscale Natural Fiber Carriers

Cellulose nanofibers (CNFs) have significant potential in composites as additives to improve mechanical properties, melt rheology, and more. However, agglomeration of CNFs is a key challenge in composite melt processing as obtaining nano-level dispersion of CNFs often requires cost- and energy-intensive processes (e.g., solvent exchange or freeze drying) due to the strong hornification tendencies of CNF. Herein, we avoid these challenges by using a natural fiber carrier method to integrate CNF into thermoplastic composites. Fibers are co-dried to create a hybrid fiber feedstock for compounding in which natural fibers are decorated with dispersed nanofibers. The hybridized fibers result in up to a 24% increase in tensile strength and up to a 35% increase in Young’s modulus compared to composites only containing natural fibers. The lignocellulosic nanofibers are found to outperform their purely cellulosic counterpart, which is theorized to be due to either an increased propensity for fibrillation of the lignocellulosic fibers or the increased hydrophobicity of the fibers due to the presence of lignin. Surface analysis of fiber feedstocks, via streaming potential measurements and dynamic light scattering (DLS), confirmed a significant change in the feedstock hydrophobicity before and after hybridization. While mild additions of CNF (1 wt.% on the macroscale fiber) do not impact the composite melt viscosity, the viscosity is found to increase at higher CNF loadings (5 wt.% on the macroscale fiber), indicating its utility as a rheology modifier. Lastly, use of these materials as novel feedstocks for medium-scale additive manufacturing in high-fidelity part production was demonstrated.

bio-based↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient histone deacetylase inhibition reveals cell type invariant and specific effects of chromatin decondensation on irradiation response

Radiation therapy plays a prominent role in breast cancer treatment, but the high doses of radiation damage both healthy and cancerous cells. Therefore, additional research is needed into combination therapies that could preferentially radiosensitize cancer cells compared to surrounding healthy tissue without causing deleterious side effects. Histone deacetylase inhibitor drugs (HDACis) have been tested as radiosensitizers in both basic research and clinical trials, but the long exposure time typically used in these treatments and the lack of matched healthy cell controls often leave aspects of their mechanism of action unclear. Here, we show that transient (2 h) trichostatin A (TSA) treatment of cancerous and non-tumorigenic breast epithelial cell lines increases immediate DNA damage and decreases long term cell viability in both cell types at high radiation doses. Transient TSA treatment also causes an increase in DNA damage signals after 5 Gy X-rays in other cancer and healthy cell types: A375 melanoma cells and BJ5-ta fibroblasts. This suggests that chromatin decompaction acts to increase cellular vulnerability to initial DNA damage from high doses of radiation in a cell type independent manner that does not rely on changes to DNA repair pathways caused by longer TSA treatment. However, responses to lower doses of radiation and long term survival are more cell type specific: only MCF7 cells experience an effect of TSA on DNA damage after 1 Gy X-ray radiation while MCF10a cells experience somewhat more evident cell viability effects of combined TSA and radiation treatment long term.

Li, Heng [Biochemistry & Cellular and Molecular Bi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of functional additives, fillers, and pigments on thermal and catalytic pyrolysis of polyethylene for waste plastic upcycling

Pyrolysis offers a relatively green and economical method to convert waste plastics into valuable chemicals and fuels without the need for harmful solvents, toxic chemicals, or costly high-pressure reactors. Despite its popularity among chemical upcycling technologies, industrial adoption suffers from feedstock heterogeneity, low-quality products, and catalyst deactivation. Most plastics in our daily lives are formulated with functional additives, fillers, and colorants. These additives remaining in end-of-life waste streams increase feedstock heterogeneity, creating a challenging issue in recycling plastics. Still, the potential impacts of additives on the chemical upcycling of plastics have been poorly understood. In this study, polyethylene compounded with a range of widely used additives (antioxidants, stabilizers, pigments, fillers, slip agents, and flame retardants) was subjected to both thermal pyrolysis and catalytic pyrolysis in different catalyst-to-feedstock contact modes. It showed that many inorganic additives, such as talc, kaolin, CaCO 3 , TiO 2 , carbon black, and zinc stearate, facilitated polymer decomposition during pyrolysis, increasing light hydrocarbons while also promoting aromatic and carbon residue formation. Conversely, antioxidants and stabilizers inhibited depolymerization, favoring heavier hydrocarbons. During catalytic pyrolysis with HZSM-5 zeolite, additives strongly enhanced aromatic and catalytic coke formation, especially when there was direct contact between plastics and catalysts. Although certain additives seem beneficial in the short term by promoting polymer cracking and improving the selectivity of aromatics, the transport of the additives and their degradation products and increased carbon coking can contaminate products, deactivate or modify catalysts, and foul reactors. These findings address a critical knowledge gap in effectively converting waste plastics via a greener route.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automation of Solid Oxyde Electrolyzer Cell (SOEC) & Stack Assembly

The work performed under this agreement before the No/Go decision amounted to the following: 1. Preliminary manufacturing requirements defined by business sensitivity, baseline processes & risk assessment; 2. Process & materials development, in-line gauge exploration, and preliminary automation work used to reduce risk & further refine equipment specifications; 3. “Request for Quote” issued to multiple suppliers for major equipment; 4. Application specific equipment, hardware, and fixturing will be more beneficial to fabricate inhouse; 5.Current proposals & estimates meet cycle time, capital spend, & direct labor; space is on target but requires awareness; 6. Team will continue to explore opportunities to reduce risk (dry time, traceability); 7. Go / No-Go, Purchase Orders, Equipment build & commissioning next All other future task were not completed because during the Go /No-Go decision it was confirmed this project was a "No-Go" and did not proceed past BP1; these included the following: 1. Preliminary manufacturing requirements defined by business sensitivity, baseline processes & risk assessment; 2. Process & materials development, in-line gauge exploration, and preliminary automation work used to reduce risk & further refine equipment specifications; 3. “Request for Quote” issued to multiple suppliers for major equipment; 4. Application specific equipment, hardware, and fixturing will be more beneficial to fabricate inhouse; 5. Current proposals & estimates meet cycle time, capital spend, & direct labor; space is on target but requires awareness; 6. Team will continue to explore opportunities to reduce risk (dry time, traceability) In final preparation of the termination of the Automation of Solid Oxyde Electrolyzer Cell (SOEC) & Stack Assembly, Cummins has purchased no equipment with government funds, and there is no government-owned property in Cummins possession related to this project. Minimal labor and travel were completed and paid. This acts as the Final technical report and concludes our business with DOE on this grant.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A physically interpretable precursor framework for sub-seasonal prediction of Northern Hemisphere flash flourishing

Flash flourishing describes rapid vegetation increases that can quickly reshape land–atmosphere exchanges and impacts on ecosystem, yet its large-scale precursors, circulation context, and sub-seasonal predictability remain poorly understood. Here, we identified onset-stage circulation regimes across northern extratropical latitudes (NEL; >30°N) using 200 and 1000 hPa geopotential height, and examined their regional expressions over eastern Asia, western North America, and Europe. Flash flourishing onset in East Asian was associated with a baroclinic circulation regime and was preceded by a North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) precursor at a four-pentad lead. In contrast, onset in western North American and European preferentially occurred under barotropic regimes, preconditioned by Great Plains soil moisture at three-pentad lead and North Atlantic SST at a four-pentad lead, respectively. Ridge regression forecasts revealed regime-dependent sub-seasonal predictability, with mean out-of-sample R 2 exceeding 0.3 up to lead times of two pentads in East Asia, three pentads in western North America, and four pentads in Europe. Together, these findings established a mechanistic and regionally specific framework for anticipating rapid vegetation greening at sub-seasonal timescales.

Kong, Xiangxu [Nanjing Univ. of Information Scienc↗