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Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using SkyWest Revenue Flights - Part II

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. This paper quantifies the trajectory prediction accuracy for small jet revenue flight descents based on SkyWest Canadair Regional Jet 200, 700, and 900 aircraft arrivals to Denver in the fall of 2010. Post flight test data analysis and SkyWest pilot interviews uncovered unexpected variation between flight crews due to different interpretations of (1) which fixed flight path angle (FPA) to fly based on the flight trial procedure and (2) how to fly the descent to achieve the target FPA. Pilot reports were used to select a subset of flights where pilots indicated an FPA according to the flight trial procedure to remove the unexpected variation due to (1) to focus on (2). Results for the subset for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 30 to 130 nmi downstream, indicate that aircraft arrived to the meter fix six seconds early with about a twelve second standard deviation. Large FPA errors up to one degree relative to the EDA flight trial procedure were detected after the flight trial as a characteristic of the unexpected variation. It is recommended that quantitative validation be performed during future flight trials so that experimental procedures can be adjusted if unexpected results are detected.

Field Test Results↗

Improved Maneuver Reconstructions for the GRAIL Orbiters

Maneuver reconstructions for the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) A and B lunar orbiters were improved through updates to the orbit determination filter and dynamic models. Consistent reconstructions of the 27 GRAIL A and B maneuvers from the Trans-Lunar Cruise phase in the fall of 2011 through the Transition to Science Formation phase in February 2012 were performed. Standard methods of orbit determination were applied incorporating the latest dynamic models and filter strategies developed by the GRAIL Navigation and Science Teams, including a high resolution, 420 x 420 degree and order lunar spherical harmonic gravity field model. For Trans-Lunar Cruise for GRAIL-A (TLC-A), all maneuvers executed with delta V errors below 5.50 +/- 0.50 mm/s and pointing errors below 0.25 degrees. GRAIL-A lunar orbit maneuvers had delta V errors below 30.0 mm/s and pointing errors below 0.51 degrees. For TLC-B, all maneuvers executed with delta V errors below 8.60 +/- 1.41 mm/s and pointing errors below 0.300 degrees. GRAIL-B maneuvers in lunar orbit executed with maximum delta V errors of 25.0 mm/s and pointing error of 0.43 degrees. These maneuver reconstructions will enable the GRAIL Navigation Team to better characterize the main engine performance of each spacecraft. This will help the Navigation Team to navigate low (greater than 8 km) altitude orbits during the extended mission phase in the fall of 2012.

lunar mapping↗

Particle field holography data reduction by Fourier transform analysis

The size distribution of a particle field hologram is obtained with a Fourier transformation of the Fraunhofer diffraction pattern of the reconstructed hologram. Off-axis absorption holograms of particle fields with known characteristics were obtained and analyzed with a commercially available instrument. The mean particle size of the reconstructed hologram was measured with an error of + or - 5 percent, while the distribution broadening was estimated within + or - 15 percent. Small sections of a pulsed laser hologram of a synthetic fuel spray were analyzed with this method thus yielding a spatially resolved size distribution. The method yields fast and accurate automated analysis of particle field holograms.

Hess, Cecil F.↗

Quantum-mechanical treatment of an electron undergoing synchrotron radiation.

The problem of an electron moving perpendicular to an intense magnetic field is approached from the framework of quantum mechanics. A numerical solution to the related rate equations describing the probabilities of occupation of the electron's energy states is put forth along with the expected errors involved. The quantum-mechanical approach is found to predict a significant amount of energy broadening with time for an initially monoenergetic electron beam entering a region of an intense magnetic field as long as the product of initial energy and magnetic field is of order 50 MG BeV or larger.

White, D.↗

A study of the luminosity function for field galaxies

Nine determinations of the luminosity function (LF) for field galaxies are analyzed and compared. Corrections for differences in Hubble constants, magnitude systems, galactic absorption functions, and definitions of the LF are necessary prior to comparison. Errors in previous comparisons are pointed out. After these corrections, eight of the nine determinations are in fairly good agreement. The discrepancy in the ninth appears to be mainly an incompleteness effect. The LF data suggest that there is little if any distinction between field galaxies and those in small groups.

Felten, J. E.↗

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

J Lemery↗

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

Medical Operations↗

Data Assimilation Into a Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model: Application to the 1997-1998 El Nino

As part of JPL's ocean data assimilation effort to study ocean circulation and seasonal-interannual climate variability, sea level anomaly observed by TOPEX altimeter, together with sea surface temperature and wind stress data, are assimilated into a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model of the tropical Pacific. Model-data consistency is examined. Impact of the assimilation (as initialization) on El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts is evaluated. The coupled model consists of a shallow water component with two baroclinic modes, an Ekman shear layer, a simplified mixed-layer temperature equation, and a statistical atmosphere based on dominant correlations between historical surface temperature and wind stress anomaly data. The adjoins method is used to fit the coupled model to the data over various six-month periods from late 1996 to early 1998 by optimally adjusting the initial state, model parameters, and basis functions of the statistical atmosphere. On average, the coupled model can be fitted to the data to approximately within the data and representation errors (5 cm, 0.5 C, and 10 sq m/sq m for sea level, surface temperature, and pseudo wind stress anomalies, respectively). The estimated fields resemble observed spatio-temporal structure reasonably well. Hindcasts/forecasts of the 1997/1998 El Nino initialized from forced estimated ocean states and parameters are much more realistic than those simply initialized from ocean states (see figure below). In particular, the ability of the model to produce significant warming beyond the initial state is dramatically improved. Parameter estimation, which compensates for some model errors, is found to be important to obtaining better fits of the model to data and to improving forecasts.

Lee, Tong↗

Estimating electric field enhancement factors on an aircraft utilizing a small scale model: A method evaluation

A method for obtaining field enhancement factors at specific points on an aircraft utilizing a small scale model was evaluated by measuring several canonical shapes. Comparison of the form factors obtained by analytical means with measurements indicate that the experimental method has serious flaws. Errors of 200 to 300 percent were found between analytical values and measured values. As a result of the study, the analytical method is not recommended for calibration of field meters located on aircraft, and should not be relied upon in any application where the local spatial derivatives of the electric field on the model are large over the dimensions of the sensing probe.

Easterbrook, Calvin C.↗

Evaluation of Two Computational Techniques of Calculating Multipath Using Global Positioning System Carrier Phase Measurements

Two computational techniques are used to calculate differential phase errors on Global Positioning System (GPS) carrier war phase measurements due to certain multipath-producing objects. The two computational techniques are a rigorous computati electromagnetics technique called Geometric Theory of Diffraction (GTD) and the other is a simple ray tracing method. The GTD technique has been used successfully to predict microwave propagation characteristics by taking into account the dominant multipath components due to reflections and diffractions from scattering structures. The ray tracing technique only solves for reflected signals. The results from the two techniques are compared to GPS differential carrier phase ns taken on the ground using a GPS receiver in the presence of typical International Space Station (ISS) interference structures. The calculations produced using the GTD code compared to the measured results better than the ray tracing technique. The agreement was good, demonstrating that the phase errors due to multipath can be modeled and characterized using the GTD technique and characterized to a lesser fidelity using the DECAT technique. However, some discrepancies were observed. Most of the discrepancies occurred at lower devations and were either due to phase center deviations of the antenna, the background multipath environment, or the receiver itself. Selected measured and predicted differential carrier phase error results are presented and compared. Results indicate that reflections and diffractions caused by the multipath producers, located near the GPS antennas, can produce phase shifts of greater than 10 mm, and as high as 95 mm. It should be noted tl the field test configuration was meant to simulate typical ISS structures, but the two environments are not identical. The GZ and DECAT techniques have been used to calculate phase errors due to multipath o the ISS configuration to quantify the expected attitude determination errors.

Gomez, Susan F.↗

Computation of the wind by forced adjustment to the height field.

Experimental study of the problem of the forced adjustment of the wind field to the height field with the Mintz-Arakawa two-level atmospheric general circulation model. In all but one of the experiments, the height field was assumed to be perfectly observed at 6-hr intervals, over a time period of one day or less, and from these height data the vector wind field was computed by forced dynamical adjustment. In one experiment, the temperature alone was prescribed. The winds computed in these experiments were compared with the 'control' winds of the general circulation simulation. The best agreement between the computed and the control winds was obtained when the time-differencing scheme in the governing finite-difference equations of motion had a large rate of damping of high-frequency motions. This damping rate also determined the optimum fraction and frequency of restoration of the height (or temperature) fields. With strong damping, total restoration at every time step gave the most rapid rate of wind error reduction and the smallest asymptotic limit of the wind error.

Mesinger, F.↗

Measurement techniques for antennas in dissipative media.

Methods used to simulate dissipative media environments for antennas are reported, and special techniques are developed to determine the electrical properties of antennas in such media. A new device for measuring antenna input admittance is presented which permits a simple measurement of admittance over a broad frequency range where conventional methods are cumbersome in field use. An apparatus for measuring antenna current and charge distributions is described, and the associated probing errors are discussed. Measured admittances and current and charge distributions are compared with current theories for thin wire linear and loop antennas in the dissipative media and are found to be in good agreement.

Scott, L. D.↗

X-ray emission from the supernova remnant G287.8-0.5

The GSFC Cosmic X-ray spectroscopy experiment on OSO-8 observed a weak galactic X-ray source near theta 2 at 288 deg, b2 at -1 deg. The spectrum for this source between 2-20 keV is well represented by a thermal spectrum of kT = 7.34(+3.6), sub -2.6 keV with an intense iron emission line centered at 6.5 + or - .2 keV. The error box of the Uhuru source 4U1043-59, the only known X-ray source in our field of view, contains the radio supernova remnant G287.8-0.5. The possible association of the X-ray source with this supernova remnant is discussed.

Becker, R. H.↗

Determination of polar motion and earth rotation from laser tracking of satellites

Laser tracking of the Lageos spacecraft has been used to derive the position of the earth's pole of rotation at intervals during October, November and December 1976. The estimated precision of the results is 0.01 to 0.02 arcseconds in both x and y components, although the formal uncertainty is an order of magnitude better, and there is general agreement with the Bureau International de l'Heure smoothed pole path to about 0.02 arcseconds. Present orbit determination capability of Lageos is limited to about 25 cm rms fit to data over periods of 5 days and about 50 cm over 50 days. The present major sources of error in the perturbations of Lageos are earth and ocean tides followed by the earth's gravity field, and solar and earth reflected radiation pressure. Ultimate accuracy for polar motion and earth rotation from Lageos after improved modeling of the perturbing forces appears to be of order + or - 5 cm for polar motion over a period of about one day and about + or - 0.2 to + or - 0.3 milliseconds in UT for periods up to 2 or 3 months.

Smith, D. E.↗

Performance appraisal of VAS radiometry for GOES-4, -5 and -6

The first three VISSR Atmospheric Sounders (VAS) were launched on GOES-4, -5, and -6 in 1980, 1981 and 1983. Postlaunch radiometric performance is assessed for noise, biases, registration and reliability, with special attention to calibration and problems in the data processing chain. The postlaunch performance of the VAS radiometer meets its prelaunch design specifications, particularly those related to image formation and noise reduction. The best instrument is carried on GOES-5, currently operational as GOES-EAST. Single sample noise is lower than expected, especially for the small longwave and large shortwave detectors. Detector to detector offsets are correctable to within the resolution limits of the instrument. Truncation, zero point and droop errors are insignificant. Absolute calibration errors, estimated from HIRS and from radiation transfer calculations, indicate moderate, but stable biases. Relative calibration errors from scanline to scanline are noticeable, but meet sounding requirements for temporarily and spatially averaged sounding fields of view. The VAS instrument is a potentially useful radiometer for mesoscale sounding operations. Image quality is very good. Soundings derived from quality controlled data meet prelaunch requirements when calculated with noise and bias resistant algorithms.

Chesters, D.↗

A computational method for helicopter vortex wakes

A method for calculating the wake geometry and blade loads for a hovering helicopter rotor is presented. The approach incorporates a simplified free wake model of the rotor in a finite difference calculation of the flow field. A variation of the 'cloud-in-cell' technique, modified to eliminate self-induced velocity errors for curved vortex filaments, is used. Simple lifting line theory is used to calculate the blade loads. Calculations showing the effect of vortex core size and the number of vortex filaments representing the wake are presented. For large numbers of vortices, it is seen that the wake geometry fails to converge. However, only a few vortices are needed to adequately represent the wake. Comparisons with experimental results are also presented.

Roberts, T. W.↗

Comparison of stratospheric air parcel trajectories calculated from SSU and LIMS satellite data

Midstratospheric trajectories for February and March 1979 are calculated using geopotential analyses derived from limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere data. These trajectories are compared with the corresponding results using stratospheric sounding unit data. The trajectories are quasi-isentropic in that a radiation scheme is used to simply cross-isentrope flow. The results show that in disturbed conditions, quantitative agreement the trajectories, that is, within 25 great circle degrees (GCD) (one GCD about 110 km) may be valid for only 3 or 4 days, whereas during quiescent periods, quantitative agreement may last up to 10 days. By comparing trajectories calculated with different data some insight can be gained as to errors due to vertical resolution and horizontal resolution (due to infrequent sampling) in the analyzed geopotential height fields. For the disturbed trajectories described in this paper the horizontal resolution of the data was more important than vertical resolution; however, for the quiescent trajectories, which could be calculated accurately for a longer duration because of the absence of appreciable transients, the vertical resolution of the data was found to be more important than the horizontal resolution. It is speculated that these characteristics are also applicable to trajectories calculated during disturbed and quiescent periods in general. A review of some recently published trajectories shows that the qualitative conclusions of such works remains unaffected when the calculations are repeated using different data.

Austin, J.↗

Intercomparison and calibration of wind and wave measurements at various frequencies

Radars are increasingly being used for determinations of the small-scale wave and turbulence fields of the atmosphere. It is important to understand as fully as possible the likely sources of error or bias in radar velocity determinations. This is especially true for the determination of wave and turbulence parameters which often rely on the measurement of first or second order deviations from the prevailing wind and therefore require better precision and time resolution than is usually required for measurements of the mean winds alone. The intercomparison of velocity measurements made with different techniques (e.g., radar and balloon) can be expected to help determine not only the relative effectiveness of the different methods, but also the degree of reliability.

Vincent, R. A.↗