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Ocean-Land Teleconnections and Chaotic Atmospheric Variability in Climate Models, with Implications for Real-World Behavior

This study introduces a unique approach to estimating a fundamental but unmeasurable property of Nature: ρo 2 , the fraction of the variance of a given meteorological variable that is determined by boundary forcing (specifically, SSTs) as opposed to chaotic atmospheric dynamics. Here, we focus on continental monthly-averaged near-surface air temperature, or T2M. Rather than determining the fractions of SST-explained T2M variance found for a specific atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and then assuming that these fractions also represent Nature, we perform an analysis that entails: (i) evaluating a specific AGCM’s ability to capture observed variability with an infinite number of ensemble members, (ii) quantifying the degree to which different modeling systems agree on SST-land teleconnections, and (iii) combining these results into our novel estimates of ρo 2 . The derived ρo 2 fields suggest, with caveats, that AGCMs tend to overestimate the fraction of explained T2M variance (the signal-to-total variance ratio) in the Tropics.

Randal D Koster↗

MODIS Aerosol Observations used to Constrain Dust Distributions and Lifecycle in the NASA GEOS-5 Model

Approximately 240 Tg of mineral dust aerosol are transported annually from Saharan Africa to the Atlantic Ocean. Dust affects the Earth radiation budget, and plays direct (through scattering and absorption of radiation) and indirect (through modification of cloud properties and environment) roles in climate. Deposition of dust to the surface provides an important nutrient source to terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems. Dust is additionally a contributor to adverse air quality. Among the tools toward understanding the lifecycle and impacts of mineral dust aerosols are numerical models. Important constraints on these models come from quantitative satellite observations, like those from the space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In particular, Kauhan et al. [2005] used MODIS aerosol observations to infer transport and deposition fluxes of Saharan dust over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Amazonian basins. Those observations are used here to constrain the transport of dust and its interannual variability simulated in the NASA GEOS-5 general circulation model and data assimilation system. Significant uncertainty exists in the MODIS-derived fluxes, however, due to uncertainty in the wind fields provided by meteorological analyses in this region. That same uncertainty in the wind fields is manifest in our GEOS-5 simulations of dust distributions. Here we use MODIS observations to investigate the seasonality and location of the Saharan dust plume and explore through sensitivity analysis of our model the meteorological controls on the dust distribution, including dust direct radiative effects and sub-gridscale source and sink processes.

Colarco, P.↗

Improving Mars-GRAM: Increasing the Accuracy of Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

Extensively utilized for numerous mission applications, the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model. In a Monte-Carlo mode, Mars-GRAM's perturbation modeling capability is used to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). Mars-GRAM has been found to be inexact when used during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3. Mars-GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) from the surface to 80 km altitude. Mars-GRAM with the MapYear parameter set to 0 utilizes results from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 at all locations for the entire year. Imprecise atmospheric density and pressure at all altitudes is a consequence of this use of MGCM with tau=3. Density factor values have been determined for tau=0.3, 1 and 3 as a preliminary fix to this pressure-density problem. These factors adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear 0 with Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) observations for MapYears 1 and 2 at comparable dust loading. These density factors are fixed values for all latitudes and Ls and are included in Mars-GRAM Release 1.3. Work currently being done, to derive better multipliers by including variations with latitude and/or Ls by comparison of MapYear 0 output directly against TES limb data, will be highlighted in the presentation. The TES limb data utilized in this process has been validated by a comparison study between Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars-GRAM and measurements by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). This comparison study was undertaken for locations on Mars of varying latitudes, Ls, and LTST. The more precise density factors will be included in Mars-GRAM 2005 Release 1.4 and thus improve the results of future sensitivity studies done for large optical depths.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

Sensitivity of Assimilated Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to the Meteorological Analyses

Tropical tropospheric ozone fields from two different experiments performed with an off-line ozone assimilation system developed in NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) are examined. Assimilated ozone fields from the two experiments are compared with the collocated ozone profiles from the Southern Hemispheric Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. Results are presented for 1998. The ozone assimilation system includes a chemistry-transport model, which uses analyzed winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The two experiments use wind fields from different versions of GEOS DAS: an operational version of the GEOS-2 system and a prototype of the GEOS-4 system. While both versions of the DAS utilize the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System and use comparable observations, they use entirely different general circulation models and data insertion techniques. The shape of the annual-mean vertical profile of the assimilated ozone fields is sensitive to the meteorological analyses, with the GEOS-4-based ozone being closest to the observations. This indicates that the resolved transport in GEOS-4 is more realistic than in GEOS-2. Remaining uncertainties include quantification of the representation of sub-grid-scale processes in the transport calculations, which plays an important role in the locations and seasons where convection dominates the transport.

Hayashi, Hiroo↗

The Impact of Planetary Rotation Rate on the Reflectance and Thermal Emission Spectrum of Terrestrial Exoplanets Around Sun-L ike Stars

Robust atmospheric and radiative transfer modeling will be required to properly interpret reflected light and thermal emission spectra of terrestrial exoplanets. This will help break observational degeneracies between the numerous atmospheric, planetary, and stellar factors that drive planetary climate. Here we simulate the climates of Earth-like worlds around the Sun with increasingly slow rotation periods, from Earth-like to fully Sun-synchronous, using the ROCKE-3D general circulation model. We then provide these results as input to the Spectral Planet Model (SPM), which employs the SMART radiative transfer model to simulate the spectra of a planet as it would be observed from a future space-based telescope. We find that the primary observable effects of slowing planetary rotation rate are the altered cloud distributions, altitudes, and opacities which subsequently drive many changes to the spectra by altering the absorption band depths of biologically-relevant gas species (e.g., H2O, O2, and O3). We also identify a potentially diagnostic feature of synchronously rotating worlds in mid-infrared H2O absorption/emission lines.

Scott D Guzewich↗

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Larson, J. W.↗

The impact of clouds on the shortwave radiation budget of the surface-atmosphere system - Interfacing measurements and models

Two datasets have been combined to demonstrate how the availability of more comprehensive datasets could serve to elucidate the shortwave radiative impact of clouds on both the atmospheric column and the surface. These datasets consist of two measurements of net downward shortwave radiation: one of near-surface measurements made at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory tower, and the other of collocated top-of-the-atmosphere measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Output from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts General Circulation Model also has been used as an aid in interpreting the data, while the data have in turn been employed to validate the model's shortwave radiation code as it pertains to cloud radiation properties. Combined, the datasets and model demonstrate a strategy for determining under what conditions the shortwave radiative impact of clouds leads to a heating or cooling of the atmospheric column. The datasets also show, in terms of a linear slope-offset algorithm for retrieving the net downward shortwave radiation at the surface from satellite measurements, that the clouds present during this study produced a modest negative bias in the retrieved surface flux relative to that inferred from a clear-sky algorithm.

Cess, Robert D.↗

The Impact of Clouds on the Shortwave Radiation Budget of the Surface-Atmosphere System: Interfacing Measurements and Models

Two datasets have been combined to demonstrate how the availability of more comprehensive datasets could serve to elucidate the shortwave radiative impact of clouds on both the atmospheric column and the surface. These datasets consist of two measurements of net downward shortwave radiation: one of near-surface measurements made at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory tower, and the other of collocated top-of-the-atmosphere measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts General Circulation Model also has been used as an aid in interpreting the data, while the data have in turn been employed to validate the model's shortwave radiation code as it pertains to cloud radiation properties. Combined, the datasets and model demonstrate a strategy for determining under what conditions the shortwave radiative impact of clouds leads to a heating or cooling of the atmospheric column. The datasets also show, in terms of a linear slope-offset algorithm for retrieving the net downward shortwave radiation at the surface from satellite measurements, that the clouds present during this study produced a modest negative bias in the retrieved surface flux relative to that inferred from a clear-sky algorithm.

Cess, Robert D.↗

Influence of Ice-phase of Hydrometeors on Moist-Convection

Climate models often ignore the influence of ice-phase physics (IPP) of hydrometeors as a second order effect. This has also been true for McRAS (Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme) developed by the authors. Recognizing that the temperature sounding is critical for moist-convection, and, that IPP would modify it, we investigated the influence of introducing IPP into McRAS coupled to FvGCM (finite volume General Circulation Model with NCAR physics). We analyzed three 3-yr long simulations; the first called Control Case, CC and had no IPP; the other two called Experiments El and E2 had IPP introduced with two different in-cloud freezing assumptions. Simulation El assumed that all hydrometeors remain liquid in the updraft and freeze upon detrainment. Simulation E2 invoked the in-cloud freezing of new condensate generated at subfreezing temperatures in the updraft while old cloud water continued to ascend as liquid. Upon detrainment, this cloud water also froze like in E1. With these assumptions, about 50% of hydrometeors froze in the tower and the rest froze in the anvil. However, in both El and E2, the frozen hydrometeors melted during fall at the first encounter of above freezing ambient temperature. Comparative analysis revealed that El simulated far more mid-level and far less deep clouds while E2 had modified deep and more mid-level clouds as compared to CC along with some major changes around the melt-level. We infer that IPP produced a more realistic response in E2. At the basic level, the results show that ice-phase processes influence convective detrainment at mid- and deep levels in accord with TOGAGOARE observations. The results suggest that IPP can help to mitigate less-than-observed mid-level and over-abundance of deep convective clouds in McRAS.

Sud, Y. C.↗

Global Impacts of Gas-Phase Chemistry-Aerosol Interactions on Direct Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols and Ozone

We present here a first global modeling study on the influence of gas-phase chemistry/aerosol interactions on estimates of anthropogenic forcing by tropospheric O3 and aerosols. Concentrations of gas-phase species and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols in the preindustrial, present-day, and year 2100 (IPCC SRES A2) atmospheres are simulated online in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II' (GISS GCM II'). With fully coupled chemistry and aerosols, the preindustrial, presentday, and year 2100 global burdens of tropospheric ozone are predicted to be 190, 319, and 519 Tg, respectively. The burdens of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted respectively to be 0.32. 0.18, 0.01, 0.33 Tg in preindustrial time, 1.40, 0.48, 0.23, 1.60 Tg in presentday, and 1.37, 1.97, 0.54, 3.31 Tg in year 2100. Anthropogenic O3 is predicted to have a globally and annually averaged present-day forcing of +0.22 W m(sup -2) and year 2100 forcing of +0.57 W m(sup -2) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Net anthropogenic TOA forcing by internally mixed sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols is estimated to be virtually zero in the present-day and +0.34 W m(sup -2) in year 2100, whereas it is predicted to be -0.39 W m(sup -2) in present-day and -0.61 W m(sup -2) in year 2100 if the aerosols are externally mixed. Heterogeneous reactions are shown to be important in affecting anthropogenic forcing. When reactions of N2O5, NO3, NO2, and HO2 on aerosols are accounted for, TOA anthropogenic O3 forcing is less by 20-45% in present-day and by 20-32% in year 2100 at mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, as compared with values predicted in the absence of heterogeneous gas aerosol reactions. Mineral dust uptake of HNO3 and O3 is shown to have practically no influence on anthropogenic O3 forcing. Heterogeneous reactions of N2Os, NO3, NO2, and HO2 are predicted to have noticeable impacts on anthropogenic aerosol forcing over industrialized areas, leading to 0-2 W m(sup -2) more anthropogenic aerosol cooling in present-day and 2-8 W m(sup -2) more cooling in year 2100 in these areas as compared with forcings calculated in the absence of heterogeneous reactions. Sea salt uptake of SO2 reduces the magnitude of TOA aerosol cooling by 0.5-1 W m(sup -2) over the oceans around 60 N in the present-day and year 2100 scenarios. Near dust sources, mineral dust uptake of SO2 and HNO3 leads to less anthropogenic aerosol cooling by 0.5-1 W m(sup -2) in the present day and 1-2 W m(sup -2) in year 2100.

Liao, Hong↗

Ocean Heat and Carbon Uptake in Transient Climate Change: Identifying Model Uncertainty

Global warming on decadal and centennial timescales is mediated and ameliorated by the oceansequestering heat and carbon into its interior. Transient climate change is a function of the efficiency by whichanthropogenic heat and carbon are transported away from the surface into the ocean interior (Hansen et al. 1985).Gregory and Mitchell (1997) and Raper et al. (2002) were the first to identify the importance of the ocean heat uptakeefficiency in transient climate change. Observational estimates (Schwartz 2012) and inferences from coupledatmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; Gregory and Forster 2008; Marotzke et al. 2015), suggest thatocean heat uptake efficiency on decadal timescales lies in the range 0.5-1.5 W/sq m/K and is thus comparable to theclimate feedback parameter (Murphy et al. 2009). Moreover, the ocean not only plays a key role in setting the timing ofwarming but also its regional patterns (Marshall et al. 2014), which is crucial to our understanding of regional climate,carbon and heat uptake, and sea-level change. This short communication is based on a presentation given by A.Romanou at a recent workshop, Oceans Carbon and Heat Uptake: Uncertainties and Metrics, co-hosted by US CLIVARand OCB. As briefly reviewed below, we have incomplete but growing knowledge of how ocean models used in climatechange projections sequester heat and carbon into the interior. To understand and thence reduce errors and biases inthe ocean component of coupled models, as well as elucidate the key mechanisms at work, in the final section we outlinea proposed model intercomparison project named FAFMIP. In FAFMIP, coupled integrations would be carried out withprescribed overrides of wind stress and freshwater and heat fluxes acting at the sea surface.

periodic variations↗

Study of mass and heat transport of the tropical Atlantic Ocean using models and altimeter data

The specific objectives of this proposal are: (1) to assess the quality of the TOPEX/POSEIDON surface altimeter data in regard to its use for a large, low-frequency monitoring of the surface topography of the tropical Atlantic Ocean; (2) to develop a method, on a demonstration basis, to derive from the tropical Atlantic the depth of the thermocline and the heat content changes from the surface altimeter data field; (3) to develop a method of assimilation of altimeter data into Oceanic General Circulation Models (OGCM's) for the purpose of preparing an operational, permanent, three-dimensional now casting of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (a TOGA objective); and (4) to derive from these models global circulation fields and a time series of mass and meridional heat transports across the tropical Atlantic region (a WOCE objective).

Merle, Jacques↗

The North Pacific Summer Jet and Climate Extremes over North America: Mechanisms and Model Biases

The North Pacific summer jet (NPSJ) plays a critical role as a waveguide for weather systems and other sub-seasonal Rossby waves entering North America and therefore has a controlling influence on the warm season weather and climate extremes over much of the continent. In particular, much of the warm season precipitation that occurs over the central United States depends on subseasonal transients that are able to tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as they propagate across the continent. The GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), like many AGCMs, is deficient in the simulation of the NPSJ. It is shown that the deficiency is composed of: 1) a stunted jet in which the strongest winds are confined to the Asian continent, failing to extend across the North Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska as observed, and 2) a zonally symmetric poleward shift in the jet. These biases combine to impede the eastward propagation of the weather systems into the continent (the stunted jet), and deprive those systems that do enter the continent access to the moisture from the Gulf (the northward shift), leading to a dry bias over the central US. It is shown that the stunted jet bias is the result of too strong heating that occurs just south of the jet core over and near Tibet. Furthermore, it is shown that the poleward shift of the NPSJ can be corrected in the current GEOS-5 AGCM by increasing the vertical resolution. The implications of these results for improving warm season forecasts of extreme events will be discussed.

NPS↗

Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement concepts to create realistic pseudo-datasets. Pseudo-data are averaged over coarse model grid cell areas to better understand the ability of measurements to characterize CO2 distributions and spatial gradients on both short (daily to weekly) and long (monthly to seasonal) time scales

Ott, L.↗

File Specification for MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM)

This document provides a brief description of the output collections from the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (M2-SCREAM) produced at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. These data are generated by assimilating retrievals from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) into the Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) driven by meteorological fields from MERRA-2. M2-SCREAM assimilates hydrochloric acid (HCl), nitric acid (HNO3), stratospheric water vapor (H2O), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone with a system equipped with a version of the GEOS general circulation model and a stratospheric chemistry model, StratChem. Assimilated fields are provided globally at 0.5° by 0.625° resolution at three-hourly frequencies from 2004/09/01 to 2021. Assimilation uncertainties for each of the assimilated constituents are calculated from the CoDAS statistical output (Wargan et al., 2022) and provided as global full-resolution three-dimensional monthly files.

Krzysztof Wargan↗

Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗

Numerical simulation of large-scale ocean-atmosphere coupling and the ocean's role in climate

The problem of reducing model generated sigma coordinate data to pressure levels is considered. A mass consistent scheme for performing budget analyses is proposed, wherein variables interpolated to a given pressure level are weighted according to the mass between a nominal pressure level above and either a nominal pressure level below or the Earth's surface, whichever is closer. The method is applied to the atmospheric energy cycle as simulated by the OSU two level atmospheric general circulation model. The results are more realistic than sigma coordinate analyses with respect to eddy decomposition, and are in agreement with the sigma coordinate evaluation of the numerical energy sink. Comparison with less sophisticated budget schemes indicates superiority locally, but not globally.

Gates, W. L.↗

Nonmigrating tides

Recently an interesting advancement in the study of nonmigrating tides has occurred. There have been two distinct approaches in works on this subject. One is based on mechanistic models as considering nonuniform global distribution of water vapor or heating only on land, solving a set of linear equations. It is found that insolation absorption of the nonuniformly distributed water vapor produces only weak nonmigrating tides in the lower thermosphere; the planetary boundary layer heating on land can explain the enhanced tides on land and those with short vertical wavelengths in the stratosphere. The other approach is novel and uses simulation on the general circulation model (GCM). This realistic model can reproduce tides globally and in many details. The enhancement of two nonmigrating modes as eastward traveling modes with a wave number 3 and westward traveling modes with a wave number 5 is in surprisingly good agreement with observation at sea level, at 700 mb and even at 300 mb.

Kato, S.↗