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The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Procedure and Preliminary Results

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado's "Can Do Colorado" initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, start in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The non-motorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO2. Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Dust from evolved stars: a pilot analysis of the AGB to PN transition

ABSTRACT We present a novel approach to address dust production by low- and intermediate-mass stars. We study the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) phase, during which the formation of dust takes place, from the perspective of post-AGB and planetary nebula (PN) evolutionary stage. Using results from stellar evolution and dust formation modelling, we interpret the spectral energy distribution of carbon-dust-rich sources currently evolving through different evolutionary phases, believed to descend from progenitors of similar mass and chemical composition. Comparing the results of different stages along the AGB to PNe transition, we can provide distinct insights on the amount of dust and gas released during the very late AGB phases. While the post-AGB traces the history of dust production back to the tip of the AGB phase, investigating the PNe is important to reconstruct the mass-loss process experienced after the last thermal pulse. The dust surrounding the post-AGB was formed soon after the tip of the AGB. The PNe dust-to-gas ratio is ∼10−3, 2.5 times smaller than what expected for the same initial mass star during the last AGB interpulse, possibly suggesting that dust might be destroyed during the PN phase. Measuring the amount of dust present in the nebula can constrain the capacity of the dust to survive the central star heating.

Dell’Agli, F. (ORCID:0000000324426981)↗

Electron inelastic mean free path in water

Liquid phase transmission electron microscopy (LPTEM) is rapidly developing as a powerful tool for probing processes in liquid environments with close to atomic resolution. Knowledge of the water thickness is needed for reliable interpretation and modelling of analytical studies in LPTEM, and is particularly essential when using thin liquid layers, required for achieving the highest spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the log-ratio method in electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS) is often applied in TEM to quantify the sample thickness, which is measured relative to the inelastic mean free path ( λ IMFP ). However, λ IMFP itself is dependent on sample material, the electron energy, and the convergence and divergence angles of the microscope electronoptics. Here, we present a detailed quantitative analysis of the λ IMFP of water as functions of the EELS collection angle ( β ) at 120 keV and 300 keV in a novel nanochannel liquid cell. We observe good agreement with earlier studies conducted on ice, but find that the most widely used theoretical models significantly underestimate λ IMFP of water. We determine an adjusted average energy-loss term E m, water , and characteristic scattering angle θ E, water that improve the accuracy. The results provide a comprehensive knowledge of the λ IMFP of water (or ice) for reliable interpretation and quantification of observations in LPTEM and cryo-TEM studies.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A model for oblique impacts on material surfaces

Many practical situations of material damage, wear, and erosion involve collisions between small particles and surfaces at inclined angles. While there are many well-validated models of normal incidence impact situations, elastic-plastic models for oblique incidence impact events are lacking. Here the finite element method is used to predict the normal and tangential coefficient of restitution in oblique impacts for hard, elastic spheres impacting an elastic-perfectly plastic material surface. The proposed model covers various impact angles ranging from 0° to 45°, within a limiting impact velocity below which the effects of heating are negligible. The normal coefficient of restitution follows power-laws with respect to normalized values of the impact velocity. Interestingly, the tangential coefficient of restitution follows a linear relationship with impact velocity. Together, these results provide a semi-empirical set of equations predicting oblique impact rebounds (both velocity and trajectory) for a wide range of conditions and material properties, with which experimental results can be rapidly interpreted. As a result, Laser-Induced Particle Impact Test (LIPIT) data are also presented for aluminum particles impacting aluminum substrates, at impact angles of 25° and 40°; the results compare favorably with the model and validate the general use of such models for the analysis of experimental data.

Coefficient of restitution↗

π-Extended Ligands in Two-Coordinate Coinage Metal Complexes

Two-coordinate carbene-M I -amide (cMa, M I = Cu, Ag, Au) complexes have emerged as highly efficient luminescent materials for use in a variety of photonic applications, due to their extremely fast radiative rates via thermally activated delayed fluorescence (TADF) from an interligand charge transfer (ICT) process. A series of cMa derivatives were prepared to examine the variables which affect the radiative rate with the goal of understanding the parameters that control the radiative TADF process in these materials. We find that blue emissive complexes with high photoluminescence efficiency (Φ PL > 0.95) and fast radiative rates (k r = 4 x 10 6 s -1 ) can be achieved by selectively extending the π-system of the carbene and amide ligands. Of note is the role played by increasing the separation between the hole and electron in the ICT excited state. Analysis of temperature dependent luminescence data along with theoretical calculations indicate that the hole-electron separation alters the energy gap between the lowest energy singlet and triplet states (ΔE ST ) while keeping the radiative rate for the singlet state unchanged. As a result, this interpretation provides guidelines for the design of new cMa derivatives with even faster radiative rates as well as those with slower radiative rates and thus extended excited state lifetimes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Projection-Based Model Reduction for Coupled Conduction—Enclosure Radiation Systems

We report a projection-based reduced order model (pROM) methodology has been developed for transient heat transfer problems involving coupled conduction and enclosure radiation. The approach was demonstrated on two test problems of varying complexity. The reduced order models demonstrated substantial speedups (up to 185×) relative to the full order model with good accuracy (less than 3% L ∞ error). An attractive feature of pROMs is that there is a natural error indicator for the ROM solution: the final residual norm at each time-step of the converged ROM solution. Using example test cases, we discuss how to interpret this error indicator to assess the accuracy of the ROM solution. The approach shows promise for many-query applications, such as uncertainty quantification and optimization. The reduced computational cost of the ROM relative to the full-order model (FOM) can enable the analysis of larger and more complex systems as well as the exploration of larger parameter spaces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Preliminary Results and Lessons Learned

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado’s “Can Do Colorado” initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, starting in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The nonmotorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO 2 . Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Completion document for MRT 8824 - Upgrade NIF’s gaseous radiochemistry diagnostics (RAGS) to support weapons science

This milestone highlights the successful upgrade and deployment of the Radiochemical Analysis of Gaseous Samples (RAGS) system, which delivers high-quality measurements (<20% uncertainty) of activated gaseous species from NIF implosions. These measurements are critical for supporting Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) relevant platforms, including LANL’s Double Shell and LLNL’s Pushered Single Shell campaigns. The RAGS diagnostic technique enables analysis of short-range mixing in implosions using high-Z shells, which are otherwise inaccessible to conventional x-ray diagnostic methods. By facilitating the investigation of high-Z material mixing into fusion burn, this system provides essential data for quantifying and interpreting results in high-energy density (HED) experiments. This report details the physics motivation, diagnostic fundamentals, planned and enacted upgrade work, and the quantification of uncertainty for the upgraded system.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Comparative Uptake Patterns of Radioactive Iodine and [18F]-Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) in Metastatic Differentiated Thyroid Cancers

Background: Metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) represents a molecularly heterogeneous group of cancers with varying radioactive iodine (RAI) and [ 18 F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake patterns potentially correlated with the degree of de-differentiation through the so-called “flip-flop” phenomenon. However, it is unknown if RAI and FDG uptake patterns correlate with molecular status or metastatic site. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis of metastatic DTC patients (n = 46) with radioactive 131-iodine whole body scan (WBS) and FDG-PET imaging between 2008 and 2022 was performed. The inclusion criteria included accessible FDG-PET and WBS studies within 1 year of each other. Studies were interpreted by two blinded radiologists for iodine or FDG uptake in extrathyroidal sites including lungs, lymph nodes, and bone. Cases were stratified by BRAF V600E mutation status, histology, and a combination of tumor genotype and histology. The data were analyzed by McNemar’s Chi-square test. Results: Lung metastasis FDG uptake was significantly more common than iodine uptake (WBS: 52%, FDG: 84%, p = 0.04), but no significant differences were found for lymph or bone metastases. Lung metastasis FDG uptake was significantly more prevalent in the papillary pattern sub-cohort (WBS: 37%, FDG: 89%, p = 0.02) than the follicular pattern sub-cohort (WBS: 75%, FDG: 75%, p = 1.00). Similarly, BRAF V600E+ tumors with lung metastases also demonstrated a preponderance of FDG uptake (WBS: 29%, FDG: 93%, p = 0.02) than BRAF V600E- tumors (WBS: 83%, FDG: 83%, p = 1.00) with lung metastases. Papillary histology featured higher FDG uptake in lung metastasis (WBS: 39%, FDG: 89%, p = 0.03) compared with follicular histology (WBS: 69%, FDG: 77%, p = 1.00). Patients with papillary pattern disease, BRAF V600E+ mutation, or papillary histology had reduced agreement between both modalities in uptake at all metastatic sites compared with those with follicular pattern disease, BRAF V600E- mutation, or follicular histology. Low agreement in lymph node uptake was observed in all patients irrespective of molecular status or histology. Conclusions: The pattern of FDG-PET and radioiodine uptake is dependent on molecular status and metastatic site, with those with papillary histology or BRAF V600E+ mutation featuring increased FDG uptake in distant metastasis. Further study with an expanded cohort may identify which patients may benefit from specific imaging modalities to recognize and surveil metastases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric H 2 observations from the NOAA Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network

Abstract. The NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) measures atmospheric hydrogen (H2) in grab samples collected weekly as flask pairs at over 50 sites in the Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network. Measurements representative of background air sampling show higher H2 in recent years at all latitudes. The marine boundary layer (MBL) global mean H2 was 552.8 ppb in 2021, 20.2 ± 0.2 ppb higher compared to 2010. A 10 ppb or more increase over the 2010–2021 average annual cycle was detected in 2016 for MBL zonal means in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere. Carbon monoxide measurements in the same-air samples suggest large biomass burning events in different regions likely contributed to the observed interannual variability at different latitudes. The NOAA H2 measurements from 2009 to 2021 are now based on the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO GAW) H2 mole fraction calibration scale, developed and maintained by the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Jena, Germany. GML maintains eight H2 primary calibration standards to propagate the WMO scale. These are gravimetric hydrogen-in-air mixtures in electropolished stainless steel cylinders (Essex Industries, St. Louis, MO), which are stable for H2. These mixtures were calibrated at the MPI-BGC, the WMO Central Calibration Laboratory (CCL) for H2, in late 2020 and span the range 250–700 ppb. We have used the CCL assignments to propagate the WMO H2 calibration scale to NOAA air measurements performed using gas chromatography and helium pulse discharge detector instruments since 2009. To propagate the scale, NOAA uses a hierarchy of secondary and tertiary standards, which consist of high-pressure whole-air mixtures in aluminum cylinders, calibrated against the primary and secondary standards, respectively. Hydrogen at the parts per billion level has a tendency to increase in aluminum cylinders over time. We fit the calibration histories of these standards with zero-, first-, or second-order polynomial functions of time and use the time-dependent mole fraction assignments on the WMO scale to reprocess all tank air and flask air H2 measurement records. The robustness of the scale propagation over multiple years is evaluated with the regular analysis of target air cylinders and with long-term same-air measurement comparison efforts with WMO GAW partner laboratories. Long-term calibrated, globally distributed, and freely accessible measurements of H2 and other gases and isotopes continue to be essential to track and interpret regional and global changes in the atmosphere composition. The adoption of the WMO H2 calibration scale and subsequent reprocessing of NOAA atmospheric data constitute a significant improvement in the NOAA H2 measurement records.

Pétron, Gabrielle↗

The role of source geometry and atmospheric propagation in global bolide infrasound detectability

Global infrasound monitoring provides a persistent means of detecting energetic bolide atmospheric entries, complementing optical observations and extending coverage over remote regions. We present a global assessment of the physical factors governing bolide infrasound detectability by correlating 623 bolide events reported by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies between 2007 and 2025 with waveform data from the International Monitoring System. We identify 311 events with confirmed infrasound detections, corresponding to a detection rate of approximately 50%, substantially higher than inferred from earlier surveys, reflecting both the maturation of the global infrasound network and advances in automated, multi-frequency array processing. Analysis of flight parameters shows that infrasound detectability is selective rather than uniform across the bolide population. Detected events are preferentially associated with steeper entry angles and lower-altitude energy deposition, while shallow, high-altitude trajectories are less consistently observed. Very high-energy events remain detectable regardless of geometry, but for the more common lower-energy regime, observability depends on specific combinations of entry parameters and propagation conditions. This geometric dependence persists across comparable energy ranges and atmospheric conditions, indicating that entry angle exerts a primary control on detectability, with energy and propagation acting as secondary modulating factors. Furthermore, these results provide new physical constraints on bolide-atmosphere interactions and improve interpretation of global infrasound observations for planetary defense and atmospheric-entry studies.

Bolides↗

Comprehensive characterization of N- and O- glycosylation of SARS-CoV-2 human receptor angiotensin converting enzyme 2

The emergence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has created the need for development of new therapeutic strategies. Understanding the mode of viral attachment, entry and replication has become a key aspect of such interventions. The coronavirus surface features a trimeric spike (S) protein that is essential for viral attachment, entry and membrane fusion. The S protein of SARS-CoV-2 binds to human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) for entry. Herein, we describe glycomic and glycoproteomic analysis of hACE2 expressed in HEK293 cells. We observed high glycan occupancy (73.2 to 100%) at all seven possible N-glycosylation sites and surprisingly detected one novel O-glycosylation site. To deduce the detailed structure of glycan epitopes on hACE2 that may be involved in viral binding, we have characterized the terminal sialic acid linkages, the presence of bisecting GlcNAc and the pattern of N-glycan fucosylation. We have conducted extensive manual interpretation of each glycopeptide and glycan spectrum, in addition to using bioinformatics tools to validate the hACE2 glycosylation. Our elucidation of the site-specific glycosylation and its terminal orientations on the hACE2 receptor, along with the modeling of hACE2 glycosylation sites can aid in understanding the intriguing virus-receptor interactions and assist in the development of novel therapeutics to prevent viral entry. Here, the relevance of studying the role of ACE2 is further increased due to some recent reports about the varying ACE2 dependent complications with regard to age, sex, race and pre-existing conditions of COVID-19 patients.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Topological Interpretability for Deep Learning

With the growing adoption of AI-based systems across everyday life, the need to understand their decision-making mechanisms is correspondingly increasing. The level at which we can trust the statistical inferences made from AI-based decision systems is an increasing concern, especially in high-risk systems such as criminal justice or medical diagnosis, where incorrect inferences may have tragic consequences. Despite their successes in providing solutions to problems involving real-world data, deep learning (DL) models cannot quantify the certainty of their predictions. These models are frequently quite confident, even when their solutions are incorrect. This work presents a method to infer prominent features in two DL classification models trained on clinical and non-clinical text by employing techniques from topological and geometric data analysis. We create a graph of a model's feature space and cluster the inputs into the graph's vertices by the similarity of features and prediction statistics. We then extract subgraphs demonstrating high-predictive accuracy for a given label. These subgraphs contain a wealth of information about features that the DL model has recognized as relevant to its decisions. We infer these features for a given label using a distance metric between probability measures, and demonstrate the stability of our method compared to the LIME and SHAP interpretability methods. This work establishes that we may gain insights into the decision mechanism of a DL model. This method allows us to ascertain if the model is making its decisions based on information germane to the problem or identifies extraneous patterns within the data.

Spannaus, Adam↗

Structural trends in the dehydrogenation selectivity of palladium alloys

Alloying is well-known to improve the dehydrogenation selectivity of pure metals, but there remains considerable debate about the structural and electronic features of alloy surfaces that give rise to this behavior. To provide molecular-level insights into these effects, a series of Pd intermetallic alloy catalysts with Zn, Ga, In, Fe and Mn promoter elements was synthesized, and the structures were determined using in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) and synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD). The alloys all showed propane dehydrogenation turnover rates 5–8 times higher than monometallic Pd and selectivity to propylene of over 90%. Moreover, among the synthesized alloys, Pd 3 M alloy structures were less olefin selective than PdM alloys which were, in turn, almost 100% selective to propylene. This selectivity improvement was interpreted by changes in the DFT-calculated binding energies and activation energies for C–C and C–H bond activation, which are ultimately influenced by perturbation of the most stable adsorption site and changes to the d-band density of states. Furthermore, transition state analysis showed that the C–C bond breaking reactions require 4-fold ensemble sites, which are suggested to be required for non-selective, alkane hydrogenolysis reactions. These sites, which are not present on alloys with PdM structures, could be formed in the Pd 3 M alloy through substitution of one M atom with Pd, and this effect is suggested to be partially responsible for their slightly lower selectivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

TRISO SiC Failure Probability for Reactivity Initiated Accidents in High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

This work analyzes the failure process of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) during reactivity-initiated accident scenarios for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) with BISON. Two cases are considered—a group control rod withdrawal (CRW) and a control rod ejection (CRE)—reproduced from a previous study. Failure probability is modeled using Weibull statistics, and worst-case scenario Weibull parameters are adopted to simulate the envelopes in BISON with a one-dimensional TRISO model. CRW scenario results are characterized by higher values of maximum energy deposition and final temperature and volumetric strain with respect to the CRE ones, but the latter have remarkably higher SiC failure probability, mainly due to the offset in strain rates between the two cases. This work also confirms the validity and conservatism of the performance envelopes produced in a previous work by replicating the envelope formulation using RELAP5-3D and RAVEN with a different sampling technique and obtaining consistent results. A sensitivity analysis using the Sobol variance decomposition method on SiC failure probability is then performed involving a set of inputs on both CRW and CRE. The two most important parameters are Weibull modulus and characteristic stress, and their relative importance depends on the specific case. The proposed interpretation of the results is that both energy deposition and strain rate influence the relative degree of importance of the failure parameters. Computation of 95% confidence intervals around worst-case scenario SiC failure probability values is also carried out for four different sets of Weibull parameters. Heren a new criterion for SiC TRISO quality classification built upon safety-based ranges of Weibull parameters is proposed to be integrated in future Fuel-Production Quality Assurance Plans.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Providing biological context for GWAS results using eQTL regulatory and co‐expression networks in Populus

Summary Our study utilized genome‐wide association studies (GWAS) to link nucleotide variants to traits in Populus trichocarpa , a species with rapid linkage disequilibrium decay. The aim was to overcome the challenge of interpreting statistical associations at individual loci without sufficient biological context, which often leads to reliance solely on gene annotations from unrelated model organisms. We employed an integrative approach that included GWAS targeting multiple traits using three individual techniques for lignocellulose phenotyping, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis to construct transcriptional regulatory networks around each candidate locus and co‐expression analysis to provide biological context for these networks, using lignocellulose biosynthesis in Populus trichocarpa as a case study. The research identified three candidate genes potentially involved in lignocellulose formation, including one previously recognized gene (Potri.005G116800/VND1, a critical regulator of secondary cell wall formation) and two genes (Potri.012G130000/AtSAP9 and Potri.004G202900/BIC1) with newly identified putative roles in lignocellulose biosynthesis. Our integrative approach offers a framework for providing biological context to loci associated with trait variation, facilitating the discovery of new genes and regulatory networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Publishing statistical models: Getting the most out of particle physics experiments

The statistical models used to derive the results of experimental analyses are of incredible scientific value and are essential information for analysis preservation and reuse. In this paper, we make the scientific case for systematically publishing the full statistical models and discuss the technical developments that make this practical. By means of a variety of physics cases - including parton distribution functions, Higgs boson measurements, effective field theory interpretations, direct searches for new physics, heavy flavor physics, direct dark matter detection, world averages, and beyond the Standard Model global fits - we illustrate how detailed information on the statistical modelling can enhance the short- and long-term impact of experimental results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗