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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Quadrature Based Neural Network Learning of Stochastic Hamiltonian Systems

Hamiltonian Neural Networks (HNNs) provide structure-preserving learning of Hamiltonian systems. In this paper, we extend HNNs to structure-preserving inversion of stochastic Hamiltonian systems (SHSs) from observational data. We propose the quadrature-based models according to the integral form of the SHSs’ solutions, where we denoise the loss-by-moment calculations of the solutions. The integral pattern of the models transforms the source of the essential learning error from the discrepancy between the modified Hamiltonian and the true Hamiltonian in the classical HNN models into that between the integrals and their quadrature approximations. This transforms the challenging task of deriving the relation between the modified and the true Hamiltonians from the (stochastic) Hamilton–Jacobi PDEs, into the one that only requires invoking results from the numerical quadrature theory. Meanwhile, denoising via moments calculations gives a simpler data fitting method than, e.g., via probability density fitting, which may imply better generalization ability in certain circumstances. Numerical experiments validate the proposed learning strategy on several concrete Hamiltonian systems. The experimental results show that both the learned Hamiltonian function and the predicted solution of our quadrature-based model are more accurate than that of the corrected symplectic HNN method on a harmonic oscillator, and the three-point Gaussian quadrature-based model produces higher accuracy in long-time prediction than the Kramers–Moyal method and the numerics-informed likelihood method on the stochastic Kubo oscillator as well as other two stochastic systems with non-polynomial Hamiltonian functions. Moreover, the Hamiltonian learning error εH arising from the Gaussian quadrature-based model is lower than that from Simpson’s quadrature-based model. These demonstrate the superiority of our approach in learning accuracy and long-time prediction ability compared to certain existing methods and exhibit its potential to improve learning accuracy via applying precise quadrature formulae.

Mathematics↗

Integrating Marine Hydrokinetic and Offshore Wind Energy: A Review of Technologies, Deployment, and Challenges

Together, offshore wind (OSW) and marine hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies have vast potential to expand the world’s access to abundant energy resource. With more than 60 GW of offshore wind energy capacity and 527 MW of ocean energy deployed globally by 2023, there is a significant amount of available resources; however, technical and non-technical challenges prevent the combined large-scale deployment of these technologies. There is still a lack of research that provides a parallel review of both MHK and OSW technologies in order to better understand their synergistic working principles. This paper aimed to address that research gap by presenting a comprehensive side-by-side review of the worldwide technological landscape, global deployment trends, integration strategies, and modeling approaches for MHK and OSW. A particular focus has been given on analyzing existing modeling and simulation techniques, assessing integration and control strategies, and comparing technologies based on water depth. Furthermore, this study provides important insights into the readiness levels of both technologies by highlighting ongoing international projects. By addressing these issues, this review will give researchers and industry stakeholders an outline for assessing the maturity of OSW and MHK systems and facilitating their transition to large-scale, sustainable deployment.

16 - TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

AI-enabled Dynamic Finish Machining Optimization for Sustained Surface Integrity

While machining processes are typically leveraged to establish geometric features, many functional characteristics of advanced materials are directly determined by their machining-induced surface integrity (SI). Current modeling approaches struggle to predict surface integrity, and typically neglect the effects of progressive tool-wear, resulting in inefficient ‘static’ process parameters. We present a novel integrated approach based on model-informed artificial intelligence (AI), which optimizes ‘dynamic’ process parameters in real-time. Here, by maximizing the useful life of a cutting tool over which a required set of SI parameters can be maintained, our paradigm will enable significantly more efficient processing of next-generation materials and components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nephelometer Aboard Aircraft Instrument Handbook

The TSI model 3563 integrating nephelometer instrument is pictured in section 4.0, and more information can be found on the manufacturer’s website. This model was used on the Gulfstream-159 (G-1) aircraft operated by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF) up until 2019. The same instrument will be deployed on the new aircraft that will replace the G-1.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Optimization of a Nuclear Integrated Energy System for the Remote Microgrid on El Hierro

Nuclear microreactors are a potential technology to provide heat and electricity for remote microgrids. There is potential for the microgrid on the island of El Hierro to use a microreactor, within an integrated energy system (IES), to generate electricity and provide desalinated water. This work proposes a workflow for optimizing and analyzing IESs for microgrids. In this study, an IES incorporating a microreactor, thermal energy storage (TES) system, combined heat and power plant, and a thermal desalination plant was designed, optimized, and analyzed using Idaho National Laboratory’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) toolset. The optimization tool, Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), was used to determine the optimal capacity sizes and dispatch for the reactor and thermal energy storage systems to meet demand. The optimized reactor and TES sizes were found to be 11.61 MWth and 58.47 MWhth, respectively, when optimizing the IES to replace 95% of the island’s existing diesel generation needs. A dynamic model of the system was created in the Modelica language, using models from the HYBRID repository, to analyze and verify the dispatch from the optimizer. The dynamic model was able to meet the ramp rates while maintaining reactor power with minimal control adjustments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimal Electric Grid Black Start Restoration Subject to Intentional Threats

Efficient restoration of the electric grid from significant disruptions – both natural and manmade – that lead to the grid entering a failed state is essential to maintaining resilience under a wide range of threats. Restoration follows a set of black start plans, allowing operators to select among these plans to meet the constraints imposed on the system by the disruption. Restoration objectives aim to restore power to a maximum number of customers in the shortest time. Current state-of-the-art for restoration modeling breaks the problem into multiple parts, assuming a known network state and full observability and control by grid operators. These assumptions are not guaranteed under some threats. This paper focuses on a novel integration of modeling and analysis capabilities to aid operators during restoration activities. A power flow-informed restoration framework, comprised of a restoration mixed-integer program informed by power flow models to identify restoration alternatives, interacts with a dynamic representation of the grid through a cognitive model of operator decision-making, to identify and prove an optimal restoration path. Application of this integrated approach is illustrated on exemplar systems. Validation of the restoration is performed for one of these exemplars using commercial solvers, and comparison is made between the steps and time involved in the commercial solver, and that required by the restoration optimization in and of itself, and by the operator model in acting on the restoration optimization output. Publications and proposals developed under this work, along with a path forward for additional expansion of the work, and summary of what was achieved, are also documented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Understanding the Hydrogeochemical Response of a Mountainous Watershed Using Integrated Surface‐Subsurface Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling

Abstract Climate change and other disturbances significantly impact hydrogeochemical exports from mountainous headwater catchments such as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how the physical and chemical processes interact in time and space in an integrated manner is key to quantifying the future impacts of such disturbances. The hydrogeochemical response of a mountainous catchment in the 2010–2019 period is evaluated quantitatively using a high‐resolution model that simulates integrated hydrology, and transport and reactions for selected solutes and minerals. The model assumes that pyrite is present only at depth while calcite is distributed uniformly, and captures the observed C‐Q reasonably well. Distinct C‐Q dynamics are observed in an average (WY16), a wet (WY17), and a dry (WY18) water year. The model also quantifies the water fraction from surface, shallow and deep groundwater compartments using tracers, and suggests greater groundwater contributions to peak stream discharge in the dry WY18. Results demonstrate that calcium concentrations do not change significantly from year to year, while sulfate shows significant temporal variability. Pyrite dissolution is affected by the changing hydrological drivers where it is enhanced in the dry WY18; calcite dissolution supplements calcium dilution under high flow conditions. The model simulates the reaction hotspots controlled by hydrological conditions, and the spatially‐resolved results show that higher soil saturation and less snowpack occur earlier on the south‐facing side than on the north‐facing side. This is a first‐of‐its‐kind demonstration of a model that integrates hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration, and reactive transport to enable a predictive understanding of hydrogeochemical exports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Superior CO 2 /N 2 separation performance of highly branched Poly(1,3 dioxolane) plasticized by polyethylene glycol

With its high content of CO 2 -philic ether oxygen groups, poly(1,3-dioxolane) (PDXLA) has emerged as an attractive platform to achieve excellent CO 2 /N 2 separation properties for post-combustion carbon capture. Herein we demonstrate that the separation properties of PDXLA can be further enhanced by plasticizing with miscible polyethylene glycol (PEG)-based additives using an integrated experimentation and modeling approach. The effects of the chain end groups and loading level of the additives on the physical properties of the blends are thoroughly investigated, including glass transition temperature (T g ), fractional free volume, and gas transport properties, and the effects can be satisfactorily described using models available for homogeneous blends. Notably, a T g -integrated free volume model is adapted to successfully interpret the unified effect of the blend composition and temperature on gas diffusivity and permeability. A sample containing 45 mass% PEG dimethyl ether (PEGDME with a molecular mass of 240 g/mol) displays stable mixed-gas CO 2 permeability of 1540 Barrer and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity of 40 when challenged with a model flue gas at 60 °C, outperforming Robeson's 2008 upper bound. Elucidating how small plasticizers impact gas transport in homogeneous blends may unravel a facile way to design high-performance membranes for gas separations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact of Integration Scheme on Performance of Anisotropic Plasticity Models

Given the prevalent role of metals in a variety of industries, schemes to integrate corresponding constitutive models in finite element applications have long been studied. A number of formulations have been developed to accomplish this task; each with their own advantages and costs. Often the focus has been on ensuring the accuracy and numerical stability of these algorithms to enable robust integration. While important, emphasis on these performance metrics may often come at the cost of computational expense potentially neglecting the needs of individual problems. In the current work, the performance of two of the most common integration methods for anisotropic plasticity -- the convex cutting plane (CCP) and closest point projection (CPP) -- across a variety of metrics is assessed; including accuracy and cost. A variety of problems are considered ranging from single elements to large representative simulations including both implicit quasistatic and explicit transient dynamic type responses. The relative performance of each scheme in the different instances is presented with an eye towards guidance on when the different algorithms may be beneficial.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Carbon‐Neutral Pathways for the United States

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C points to the need for carbon neutrality by mid‐century. Achieving this in the United States in only 30 years will be challenging, and practical pathways detailing the technologies, infrastructure, costs, and tradeoffs involved are needed. Modeling the entire U.S. energy and industrial system with new analysis tools that capture synergies not represented in sector‐specific or integrated assessment models, we created multiple pathways to net zero and net negative CO 2 emissions by 2050. They met all forecast U.S. energy needs at a net cost of 0.2–1.2% of GDP in 2050, using only commercial or near‐commercial technologies, and requiring no early retirement of existing infrastructure. Pathways with constraints on consumer behavior, land use, biomass use, and technology choices (e.g., no nuclear) met the target but at higher cost. All pathways employed four basic strategies: energy efficiency, decarbonized electricity, electrification, and carbon capture. Least‐cost pathways were based on >80% wind and solar electricity plus thermal generation for reliability. A 100% renewable primary energy system was feasible but had higher cost and land use. We found multiple feasible options for supplying low‐carbon fuels for non‐electrifiable end uses in industry, freight, and aviation, which were not required in bulk until after 2035. In the next decade, the actions required in all pathways were similar: expand renewable capacity 3.5 fold, retire coal, maintain existing gas generating capacity, and increase electric vehicle and heat pump sales to >50% of market share. This study provides a playbook for carbon neutrality policy with concrete near‐term priorities.

Williams, James H.↗

Numerical investigation of nonequilibrium electron effects on the collisional ionization rate in the collisional-radiative model

In this study, the interplay of kinetic electron physics and atomic processes in ultrashort laser-plasma interactions provides a comprehensive understanding of the impact of the electron energy distribution on plasma properties. Notably, nonequilibrium electrons play a vital role in collisional ionization, influencing ionization degrees and spectra. This paper introduces a computational model that integrates the physics of kinetic electrons and atomic processes, utilizing a Boltzmann equation for nonequilibrium electrons and a collisional-radiative model for atomic state populations. The model is used to investigate the influence of nonequilibrium electrons on collisional ionization rates and its effect on the population distribution, as observed in a widely known experiment. The study reveals a significant nonequilibrium electron presence during XFEL-matter interactions, profoundly affecting collisional ionization rates in the gas plasma, thereby necessitating careful consideration of the Collisional-Radiative model applied to such systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sensory integration for neuroprostheses: from functional benefits to neural correlates

In the field of sensory neuroprostheses, one ultimate goal is for individuals to perceive artificial somatosensory information and use the prosthesis with high complexity that resembles an intact system. To this end, research has shown that stimulation elicited somatosensory information improves prosthesis perception and task performance. While studies strive to achieve sensory integration, a crucial phenomenon that entails naturalistic interaction with the environment, this topic has not been commensurately reviewed. Therefore, here we present a perspective for understanding sensory integration in neuroprostheses. First, we review the engineering aspects and functional outcomes in sensory neuroprosthesis studies. In this context, we summarize studies that have suggested sensory integration. We focus on how they have used stimulation-elicited percepts to maximize and improve the reliability of somatosensory information. Next, we review studies that have suggested multisensory integration. These works have demonstrated that congruent and simultaneous multisensory inputs provided cognitive benefits such that an individual experiences a greater sense of authority over prosthesis movements (i.e., agency) and perceives the prosthesis as part of their own (i.e., ownership). Thereafter, we present the theoretical and neuroscience framework of sensory integration. We investigate how behavioral models and neural recordings have been applied in the context of sensory integration. Sensory integration models developed from intact-limb individuals have led the way to sensory neuroprosthesis studies to demonstrate multisensory integration. Neural recordings have been used to show how multisensory inputs are processed across cortical areas. Lastly, we discuss some ongoing research and challenges in achieving and understanding sensory integration in sensory neuroprostheses. Here, resolving these challenges would help to develop future strategies to improve the sensory feedback of a neuroprosthetic system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A long short-term memory embedding for hybrid uplifted reduced order models

In this paper, we introduce an uplifted reduced order modeling (UROM) approach through the integration of standard projection based methods with long short-term memory (LSTM) embedding. Our approach has three modeling layers or components. In the first layer, we utilize an intrusive projection approach to model dynamics represented by the largest modes. The second layer consists of an LSTM model to account for residuals beyond this truncation. This closure layer refers to the process of including the residual effect of the discarded modes into the dynamics of the largest scales. However, the feasibility of generating a low rank approximation tails off for higher Kolmogorov n -width systems due to the underlying nonlinear processes. The third uplifting layer, called super-resolution, addresses this limited representation issue by expanding the span into a larger number of modes utilizing the versatility of LSTM. Therefore, our model integrates a physics-based projection model with a memory embedded LSTM closure and an LSTM based super-resolution model. In several applications, we exploit the use of Grassmann manifold to construct UROM for unseen conditions. We performed numerical experiments by using the Burgers and Navier-Stokes equations with quadratic nonlinearity. Finally, our results show robustness of the proposed approach in building reduced order models for parameterized systems and confirm the improved trade-off between accuracy and efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An integrated EOS, pore‐crush, strength and damage model framework for near‐field ground‐shock

Abstract An integrated Equation of State (EOS) and strength/pore‐crush/damage model framework is provided for modeling near to source (near‐field) ground‐shock response, where large deformations and pressures necessitate coupling EOS with pressure‐dependent plastic yield and damage. Nonlinear pressure‐dependence of strength up to high‐pressures is combined with a Modified Cam‐Clay‐like cap‐plasticity model in a way to allow degradation of strength from pore‐crush damage, what we call the “Yp‐Cap” model. Nonlinear hardening under compaction allows modeling the crush‐out of pores in combination with a fully saturated EOS, that is, for modeling partially saturated ground‐shock response, where air‐filled voids crush. Attention is given to algorithmic clarity and efficiency of the provided model, and the model is employed in example numerical simulations, including finite element simulations of underground explosions to exemplify its robustness and utility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combining Agent Based Modeling and System Dynamics to Investigate the Circularity of Plastics

The United States currently produces about 1 million metric ton of ocean plastic pollution annually. One proposed solution to combat plastic waste is a circular economy (CE), which aims to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a system where the value of resources is maximized over time. Two key methods in industrial ecology are useful in assessing the viability of CE: (1) System Dynamics (SD) and (2) Agent Based Modeling (ABM). In prior work, the plastic life cycle was modeled with SD and ABM. The two models calculate recycling rates and costs in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint necessary next steps. We integrate the ABM and SD models - linking the emergent patterns from micro-level human decisions to system level processes - which allows a more comprehensive understanding of feedbacks, costs, and environmental impacts. The integrated model is more accurate, and can be used to visualize recycling rates and human health and environmental impacts over time. The difference between the integrated and original SD model prompts a Sobol sensitivity analysis, which is used to understand which behavioral factors most affect plastic recycling patterns. We find that the habitual component is typically the most influential in promoting positive recycling behavior. Additionally, we utilize the combined model to understand and visualize how various behavioral intervention scenarios, like improved access to recycling programs and cart tagging, influence recycling patterns; these results can guide future policy-making.

agent-based modeling↗

Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change

The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite in sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗