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DOE OSTI2022

Redshifts of radio sources in the Million Quasars Catalogue from machine learning

ABSTRACT With the aim of using machine learning techniques to obtain photometric redshifts based upon a source’s radio spectrum alone, we have extracted the radio sources from the Million Quasars Catalogue. Of these, 44 119 have a spectroscopic redshift, required for model validation, and for which photometry could be obtained. Using the radio spectral properties as features, we fail to find a model which can reliably predict the redshifts, although there is the suggestion that the models improve with the size of the training sample. Using the near-infrared–optical–ultraviolet bands magnitudes, we obtain reliable predictions based on the 12 503 radio sources which have all of the required photometry. From the 80:20 training–validation split, this gives only 2501 validation sources, although training the sample upon our previous SDSS model gives comparable results for all 12 503 sources. This makes us confident that SkyMapper, which will survey southern sky in the u, v, g, r, i, z bands, can be used to predict the redshifts of radio sources detected with the Square Kilometre Array. By using machine learning to impute the magnitudes missing from much of the sample, we can predict the redshifts for 32 698 sources, an increase from 28 to 74 per cent of the sample, at the cost of increasing the outlier fraction by a factor of 1.4. While the ‘optical’ band data prove successful, at this stage we cannot rule out the possibility of a radio photometric redshift, given sufficient data which may be necessary to overcome the relatively featureless radio spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Grid Modeling and Hosting Capacity Analysis

An interface with the OpenDSS distribution grid simulator, facilitating users in calibrating and validating models. Additionally, three distinct tools have been developed: PV Hosting Capacity: This tool allows users to determine the additional amount of photovoltaic (PV) generation that can be integrated into the system without breaching operational constraints. EV Hosting Capacity: This tool focuses on identifying the capacity for incorporating extra electric vehicle (EV) load into the system without surpassing operational limitations. Project Impact Analysis Tool: This tool is designed to assess and report all potential grid violations associated with a specific project, providing valuable insights into its impact on the distribution grid.

Poudel, Shiva↗

DOE OSTI2018

Tracking vegetation phenology across diverse North American biomes using PhenoCam imagery

Vegetation phenology controls the seasonality of many ecosystem processes, as well as numerous biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. Phenology is also highly sensitive to climate change and variability. Here we present a series of datasets, together consisting of almost 750 years of observations, characterizing vegetation phenology in diverse ecosystems across North America. Our data are derived from conventional, visible-wavelength, automated digital camera imagery collected through the PhenoCam network. For each archived image, we extracted RGB (red, green, blue) colour channel information, with means and other statistics calculated across a region-of-interest (ROI) delineating a specific vegetation type. From the high-frequency (typically, 30 min) imagery, we derived time series characterizing vegetation colour, including "canopy greenness", processed to 1- and 3-day intervals. For ecosystems with one or more annual cycles of vegetation activity, we provide estimates, with uncertainties, for the start of the "greenness rising" and end of the "greenness falling" stages. Lastly, the database can be used for phenological model validation and development, evaluation of satellite remote sensing data products, benchmarking earth system models, and studies of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Double-edged Sword of Data-driven Super-Resolution: Adversarial Super-resolution Models

Data-driven super-resolution (SR) methods are often integrated into imaging pipelines as preprocessing steps to improve downstream tasks such as classification and detection. However, these SR models introduce a previously unexplored attack surface into imaging pipelines. In this paper, we present AdvSR, a framework demonstrating that adversarial behavior can be embedded directly into SR model weights during training, requiring no access to inputs at inference time. Unlike prior attacks that perturb inputs or rely on backdoor triggers, AdvSR operates entirely at the model level. By jointly optimizing for reconstruction quality and targeted adversarial outcomes, AdvSR produces models that appear benign under standard image quality metrics while inducing downstream misclassification. We evaluate AdvSR on three SR architectures (SRCNN, EDSR, SwinIR) paired with a YOLOv11 classifier and demonstrate that AdvSR models can achieve high attack success rates with minimal quality degradation. These findings highlight a new model-level threat for imaging pipelines, with implications for how practitioners source and validate models in safety-critical applications.

Sullivan, Haley [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000274069217)↗

DOE OSTI2019

Analysis of the Effect of Vehicle Platooning on the Optimal Control of a Heavy Duty Engine Thermal System

One promising method for reducing fuel consumption and emissions, particularly in heavy duty trucks, is platooning. As the distance between vehicles decreases, the following vehicles will experience less aerodynamic drag on the front of the vehicle. However, reducing the velocity of the air contacting the front of the vehicle could have adverse effects on the temperature of the engine. To compensate for this effect, the energy consumption of the engine cooling system might increase, ultimately limiting the overall improvements obtained with platooning. Understanding the coupling between drag reduction and engine cooling load requirement is key for successfully implementing platooning strategies. Additionally, in a Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) environment, where information of the future engine load becomes available, the operation of the cooling system can be optimized in order to achieve the maximum fuel consumption reduction. In this paper, a control-oriented physics-based model for the engine cooling loop of a Volvo engine is developed and validated against road data. Starting from the validated model, an optimal control problem for the coolant system is formulated considering the tradeoff between the tracking of the engine temperature setpoint and the corresponding fuel consumption under different trailing distances. To compare the coolant system performance, Dynamic Programming (DP) is used to determine the global optimal solution for the coolant system actuator. The coupling between optimal cooling system operation and reduction in ram air are evaluated by comparing the results obtained from the DP under different platooning conditions against the unrestricted scenario. In addition, the paper analyzes the changes in the tradeoff between fuel consumption and setpoint tracking for different vehicle distances. This analysis will provide useful insight on the sensitivity of the coolant system controller calibration to the platoon distance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1984

Time series modeling of human operator dynamics in manual control tasks

A time-series technique is presented for identifying the dynamic characteristics of the human operator in manual control tasks from relatively short records of experimental data. Control of system excitation signals used in the identification is not required. The approach is a multi-channel identification technique for modeling multi-input/multi-output situations. The method presented includes statistical tests for validity, is designed for digital computation, and yields estimates for the frequency responses of the human operator. A comprehensive relative power analysis may also be performed for validated models. This method is applied to several sets of experimental data; the results are discussed and shown to compare favorably with previous research findings. New results are also presented for a multi-input task that has not been previously modeled to demonstrate the strengths of the method.

Biezad, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Time Series Modeling of Human Operator Dynamics in Manual Control Tasks

A time-series technique is presented for identifying the dynamic characteristics of the human operator in manual control tasks from relatively short records of experimental data. Control of system excitation signals used in the identification is not required. The approach is a multi-channel identification technique for modeling multi-input/multi-output situations. The method presented includes statistical tests for validity, is designed for digital computation, and yields estimates for the frequency response of the human operator. A comprehensive relative power analysis may also be performed for validated models. This method is applied to several sets of experimental data; the results are discussed and shown to compare favorably with previous research findings. New results are also presented for a multi-input task that was previously modeled to demonstrate the strengths of the method.

Biezad, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Object-Oriented MDAO Tool with Aeroservoelastic Model Tuning Capability

An object-oriented multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization (MDAO) tool has been developed at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center to automate the design and analysis process and leverage existing commercial as well as in-house codes to enable true multidisciplinary optimization in the preliminary design stage of subsonic, transonic, supersonic and hypersonic aircraft. Once the structural analysis discipline is finalized and integrated completely into the MDAO process, other disciplines such as aerodynamics and flight controls will be integrated as well. Simple and efficient model tuning capabilities based on optimization problem are successfully integrated with the MDAO tool. More synchronized all phases of experimental testing (ground and flight), analytical model updating, high-fidelity simulations for model validation, and integrated design may result in reduction of uncertainties in the aeroservoelastic model and increase the flight safety.

Pak, Chan-gi↗

NASA NTRS2024

Improved Modelling of SEP Event Onset Within the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD Framework

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events not only enable a deeper understanding and development of particle acceleration and transport theories but also provide important constraints for model validation efforts. However, because of computational limitations, a given physics-based SEP model is usually best suited to capture a particular phase of an SEP event, rather than its whole development from onset through decay. For example, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere often incorporate solar transients only at the outer boundary of their so-called coronal domain – usually set at a heliocentric distance of 20–30 R⊙. This means that particle acceleration at coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks is also computed from this boundary onwards, leading to simulated SEP event onsets that can be many hours later than observed, since shock waves can form much lower in the solar corona. In this work, we aim to improve the modelled onset of SEP events by inserting a “fixed source” of particle injection at the outer boundary of the coronal domain of the coupled WSA–Enlil 3D MHD model of the heliosphere. The SEP model that we employ for this effort is Solar Energetic Particle MODel (SEPMOD), a physics-based test-particle code based on a field line tracer and adiabatic invariant conservation. We apply our initial tests and results of SEPMOD’s fixed-source option to the 2021 October 9 SEP event, which was detected at five well-separated locations in the inner heliosphere – Parker Solar Probe, STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, and near-Earth spacecraft.

Solar eruptions↗

NASA NTRS2002

Volcanic Plume Heights on Mars: Limits of Validity for Convective Models

Previous studies have overestimated volcanic plume heights on Mars. In this work, we demonstrate that volcanic plume rise models, as currently formulated, have only limited validity in any environment. These limits are easily violated in the current Mars environment and may also be violated for terrestrial and early Mars conditions. We indicate some of the shortcomings of the model with emphasis on the limited applicability to current Mars conditions. Specifically, basic model assumptions are violated when (1) vertical velocities exceed the speed of sound, (2) radial expansion rates exceed the speed of sound, (3) radial expansion rates approach or exceed the vertical velocity, or (4) plume radius grossly exceeds plume height. All of these criteria are violated for the typical Mars example given here. Solutions imply that the convective rise, model is only valid to a height of approximately 10 kilometers. The reason for the model breakdown is hat the current Mars atmosphere is not of sufficient density to satisfy the conservation equations. It is likely that diffusion and other effects governed by higher-order differential equations are important within the first few kilometers of rise. When the same criteria are applied to eruptions into a higher-density early Mars atmosphere, we find that eruption rates higher than 1.4 x 10(exp 9) kilograms per second also violate model assumptions. This implies a maximum extent of approximately 65 kilometers for convective plumes on early Mars. The estimated plume heights for both current and early Mars are significantly lower than those previously predicted in the literature. Therefore, global-scale distribution of ash seems implausible.

Glaze, Lori S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

RELAP5-3D validation studies based on the High Temperature Test facility

In the spring and summer of 2019, experiments were conducted at the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) that form the basis of an upcoming high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) thermal hydraulics (T/H) benchmark. HTTF is an integral effects test facility for HTGR T/H modeling validation. This paper presents RELAP5-3D models of two of those experiments: PG-27, a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC); and PG-29, a depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC). These models used the RELAP5-3D model of HTTF originally developed by Paul Bayless as a starting point. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification code, RAVEN was used to perform calibration studies for the steady-state portion of PG-27. Here we developed four PG-27 calibrations based on steady-state conditions. These calibrations all used an effective thermal conductivity equal to 36 % of the measured thermal conductivity, but they differed with respect to the frictional pressure drops and radial conduction models. These models all captured the trends in steady-state temperature distributions and transient temperature behavior well. All four calibrations show room for improvement in predicting the transient temperature rise. The smallest error in temperature rise during the transient was a 21 % underprediction, and the largest was a 48 % underprediction. The errors in transient temperature rise are largely a result of a mismatch in power density between the RELAP5-3D model and the experiment due to the location of active heater rods along the boundary between heat structures in the model. The best of these calibrations was applied to PG-29 to model the DCC. Once again, temperatures during the transient were underpredicted but trends in temperature were captured. The RELAP5-3D model captured trends in the data but could not reproduce measured temperatures exactly. This result is not attributed to deficiencies in the experimental data or to RELAP5–3D itself. Rather, this result likely arises due to the some of the assumptions and decisions made when the RELAP5-3D model was first developed, prior to the execution of HTTF experiments. An agreement in prediction of temperature trends but challenges reproducing HTTF temperatures within measurement uncertainty is consistent with previous analyses of HTTF in the literature. Future RELAP5-3D validation activities centered around HTTF may be able to provide greater insight into the code’s capabilities for HTGR modeling with a more finely nodalized model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Use of the Ames Check Standard Model for the Validation of Wall Interference Corrections

The new check standard model of the NASA Ames 11-ft Transonic Wind Tunnel was chosen for a future validation of the facility's wall interference correction system. The chosen validation approach takes advantage of the fact that test conditions experienced by a large model in the slotted part of the tunnel's test section will change significantly if a subset of the slots is temporarily sealed. Therefore, the model's aerodynamic coefficients have to be recorded, corrected, and compared for two different test section configurations in order to perform the validation. Test section configurations with highly accurate Mach number and dynamic pressure calibrations were selected for the validation. First, the model is tested with all test section slots in open configuration while keeping the model's center of rotation on the tunnel centerline. In the next step, slots on the test section floor are sealed and the model is moved to a new center of rotation that is 33 inches below the tunnel centerline. Then, the original angle of attack sweeps are repeated. Afterwards, wall interference corrections are applied to both test data sets and response surface models of the resulting aerodynamic coefficients in interference-free flow are generated. Finally, the response surface models are used to predict the aerodynamic coefficients for a family of angles of attack while keeping dynamic pressure, Mach number, and Reynolds number constant. The validation is considered successful if the corrected aerodynamic coefficients obtained from the related response surface model pair show good agreement. Residual differences between the corrected coefficient sets will be analyzed as well because they are an indicator of the overall accuracy of the facility's wall interference correction process.

wind tunnel wall interferenc↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermal Desktop Modeling of 2016 CRYOTE-2 Tank Chill and Fill Testing

The storing and transfer of cryogenic propellants is an enabling technology for NASA and industry as civilization moves to expand future missions into low Earth orbit and beyond. Several ground propellant transfer tests have been conducted in past decades examining various tank chilldown and fill methods. Creating accurate models using these historical datasets is a vital step toward developing appropriate modeling tools to form pre-test predictions for subsequent ground and flight propellant transfers. This paper presents model validation of Thermal Desktop using data from the 2016 CRYOTE-2 liquid nitrogen transfer experiments whose purpose was to demonstrate the chill and fill process in a spherical receiver tank. Tank pressure, fill level, and wall temperature were all modeled and compared with 8 test cases using two modeling methods, Mass Controlled, and Pressure Controlled. This test series is the hardest Thermal Desktop tank chill and fill validation case to-date, yet the model was able to accurately predict each of these metrics for the 2016 tests within 28%, 10%, 20% respectively, for pressure, fill level, and wall temperature using the Mass Controlled model, and 29%, 79%, and 12%, respectively for the Pressure Controlled model.

Cryogenic Tank Chilldown↗

NASA NTRS1993

SAR terrain classifier and mapper of biophysical attributes

In preparation for the launch of SIR-C/X-SAR and design studies for future orbital SAR, a program has made considerable progress in the development of an SAR terrain classifier and algorithms for quantification of biophysical attributes. The goal of this program is to produce a generalized software package for terrain classification and estimation of biophysical attributes and to make this package available to the larger scientific community. The basic elements of the SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) terrain classifier are outlined. An SAR image is calibrated with respect to known system and processor gains and external targets (if available). A Level 1 classifier operates on the data to differentiate: urban features, surfaces and tall and short vegetation. Level 2 classifiers further subdivide these classes on the basis of structure. Finally, biophysical and geophysical inversions are applied to each class to estimate attributes of interest. The process used to develop the classifiers and inversions is shown. Radar scattering models developed from theory and from empirical data obtained by truck-mounted polarimeters and the JPL AirSAR are validated. The validated models are used in sensitivity studies to understand the roles of various scattering sources (i.e., surface trunk, branches, etc.) in determining net backscatter. Model simulations of sigma (sup o) as functions of the wave parameters (lambda, polarization and angle of incidence) and the geophysical and biophysical attributes are used to develop robust classifiers. The classifiers are validated using available AirSAR data sets. Specific estimators are developed for each class on the basis of the scattering models and empirical data sets. The candidate algorithms are tested with the AirSAR data sets. The attributes of interest include: total above ground biomass, woody biomass, soil moisture and soil roughness.

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the competition between mixing rate and uniformity in a coaxial hydrodynamic focusing mixer

Fast microfluidic mixers for use with line-of-sight integrating detection schemes pose unique challenges. Such detectors typically cannot discriminate signal from slow moving (e.g. near internal walls) and fast-moving portions of the fluid stream. This convolves reaction rate dynamics with fluid flow residence time dynamics. Further, the small cross sections of typical three-dimensional hydrodynamic focusing devices lead to lower detection signals. The current study focuses on achieving both small time scales of mixing and homogenous residence times. This is achieved by injecting sample through a center capillary and hydrodynamically focusing using a sheath flow within a tapered second capillary. The current design also features a third, larger coaxial capillary. The mixed stream flows into the large cross-section of this third capillary to decelerate and expand the stream by up to 14-fold to improve line-of-sight signal strength of reaction products. Hydrodynamic focusing, mixing, and expansion are studied using analytical and numerical models and also studied experimentally using a fluorescein-iodide quenching reaction. The experimentally validated models are used to explore trade-offs between mixing rate and uniformity. For the first time, this work presents detailed analysis of the Lagrangian time history of species transport during mixing inside coaxial capillaries to measure mixing nonuniformity. The mixing region enables order 100 μs mixing times and residence time widths of the same order (140 μs).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems FY20 Report

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2020 (FY20) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc. The FY20 EBS activities involved not only modeling and analysis work, but experimental work as well. Despite delays to some planned activities due to COVID-19 precautions, progress was made during FY20 in multiple research areas and documented in this report as follows: (1) EBS Task Force: Task 9/FEBEX Modeling Final Report: Thermo-Hydrological Modeling with PFLOTRAN, (2) preliminary sensitivity analysis for the FEBEX in-situ heater test, (3) cement-carbonate rock interaction under saturated conditions: from laboratory to modeling, (4) hydrothermal experiments, (5) progress on investigating the high temperature behavior of the uranyl-carbonate complexes, (6) in-situ and electrochemical work for model validation, (7) investigation of the impact of high temperature on EBS bentonite with THMC modeling, (8) sorption and diffusion experiments on bentonite, (9) chemical controls on montmorillonite structure and swelling pressure, (10) microscopic origins of coupled transport processes in bentonite, (11) understanding the THMC evolution of bentonite in FEBEX-DP—coupled THMC modeling, (12) modeling in support of HotBENT, an experiment studying the effects of high temperatures on clay buffers/near-field, and (13) high temperature heating and hydration column test on bentonite.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Performance modeling & simulation of complex systems (A systems engineering design & analysis approach)

Modeling of the Multi-mission Image Processing System (MIPS) will be described as an example of the use of a modeling tool to design a distributed system that supports multiple application scenarios. This paper examines: (a) modeling tool selection, capabilities, and operation (namely NETWORK 2.5 by CACl), (b) pointers for building or constructing a model and how the MIPS model was developed, (c) the importance of benchmarking or testing the performance of equipment/subsystems being considered for incorporation the design/architecture, (d) the essential step of model validation and/or calibration using the benchmark results, (e) sample simulation results from the MIPS model, and (f) how modeling and simulation analysis affected the MIPS design process by having a supportive and informative impact.

Hall, Laverne↗

NASA NTRS2002

Chemistry-Transport Modeling of the Satellite Observed Distribution of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

We have compared the 14-year record of satellite derived tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOC) from the NIMBUS-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) to TTOC calculated by a chemistry-transport model (CTM). An objective measure of error, based on the zonal distribution of TTOC in the tropics, is applied to perform this comparison systematically. In addition, the sensitivity of the model to several key processes in the tropics is quantified to select directions for future improvements. The comparisons indicate a widespread, systematic (20%) discrepancy over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which maximizes during austral Spring. Although independent evidence from ozonesondes shows that some of the disagreement is due to satellite over-estimate of TTOC, the Atlantic mismatch is largely due to a misrepresentation of seasonally recurring processes in the model. Only minor differences between the model and observations over the Pacific occur, mostly due to interannual variability not captured by the model. Although chemical processes determine the TTOC extent, dynamical processes dominate the TTOC distribution, as the use of actual meteorology pertaining to the year of observations always leads to a better agreement with TTOC observations than using a random year or a climatology. The modeled TTOC is remarkably insensitive to many model parameters due to efficient feedbacks in the ozone budget. Nevertheless, the simulations would profit from an improved biomass burning calendar, as well as from an increase in NOX abundances in free tropospheric biomass burning plumes. The model showed the largest response to lightning NOX emissions, but systematic improvements could not be found. The use of multi-year satellite derived tropospheric data to systematically test and improve a CTM is a promising new addition to existing methods of model validation, and is a first step to integrating tropospheric satellite observations into global ozone modeling studies. Conversely,the CTM may suggest improvements to evolving satellite retrievals for tropospheric ozone.

Peters, Wouter↗