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DOE OSTI2021

Reduction of the neutron imaginary potential off the stability line and its possible impact on neutron capture rates

The effect of the isovector imaginary optical potential has been studied experimentally by using the particle-evaporation technique for the 11 B + 48 Ca reaction with a 21.8 MeV 11 B beam. Spectra of neutron, proton, and α particles emitted from the neutron-rich compound nucleus 59 Mn have been measured and analyzed with traditional optical model potentials with their original parametrizations as well as with adjusted isovector imaginary components. It is shown that the isovector component of the imaginary potential is indispensable in the reproduction of proton and α-particle yields from this reaction and even needs to be enhanced compared with the suggestions of the original model parametrizations. Furthermore, this can lead to important consequences for astrophysical reaction-rate calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Criticality Accident Alarm System Modeling for the Uranium Processing Facility

The Criticality Accident Alarm System (CAAS) for the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) provides coverage for two primary processing facilities. For UPF, detailed documentation and drawings of the design are readily available. While this design information allows for some CAAS modeling features to match the actual design with a high level of accuracy, assumptions and simplifications are necessary as it is unrealistic and unnecessary to replicate many aspects of the design. A set of modeling guidelines and techniques were used to develop consistency between the MCNP6 models. While ensuring conservatism, overly conservative choices must be avoided to demonstrate the minimum accident of concern can be detected. To ensure proper modeling choices were made for the final models, a group of parametric studies were performed to evaluate the impact on the dose rates detected at the individual detectors. Some of these modeling choices and/or associated parametric studies include: - Modeling the grid steel area above the detectors as homogeneous stainless steel and determining the impact on detectability with an increasing density. - Modeling the presence of equipment in close proximity to the CAAS detectors. - Determining an appropriate material density to represent miscellaneous items not specifically modeled. - Evaluating the impact of sprinkler activation. The results of UPF CAAS analyses show that the modeling assumptions made based on the detailed design and parametric studies are appropriate and demonstrate accurate yet conservative models have been developed for detecting minimum accident of concern within the UPF.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS1989

Numerical model of solar dynamic radiator for parametric analysis

Growth power requirements for Space Station Freedom will be met through addition of 25 kW solar dynamic (SD) power modules. Extensive thermal and power cycle modeling capabilities have been developed which are powerful tools in Station design and analysis, but which prove cumbersome and costly for simple component preliminary design studies. In order to aid in refining the SD radiator to the mature design stage, a simple and flexible numerical model was developed. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid flow performance of the radiator and calculates area mass and impact survivability for many combinations of flow tube and panel configurations, fluid and material properties, and environmental and cycle variations.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗

DOE OSTI2011

Kernel principal component analysis for stochastic input model generation

Highlights: {yields} KPCA is used to construct a reduced order stochastic model of permeability. {yields} A new approach is proposed to solve the pre-image problem in KPCA. {yields} Polynomial chaos is used to provide a parametric stochastic input model. {yields} Flow in porous media with channelized permeability is considered. - Abstract: Stochastic analysis of random heterogeneous media provides useful information only if realistic input models of the material property variations are used. These input models are often constructed from a set of experimental samples of the underlying random field. To this end, the Karhunen-Loeve (K-L) expansion, also known as principal component analysis (PCA), is the most popular model reduction method due to its uniform mean-square convergence. However, it only projects the samples onto an optimal linear subspace, which results in an unreasonable representation of the original data if they are non-linearly related to each other. In other words, it only preserves the first-order (mean) and second-order statistics (covariance) of a random field, which is insufficient for reproducing complex structures. This paper applies kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) to construct a reduced-order stochastic input model for the material property variation in heterogeneous media. KPCA can be considered as a nonlinear version of PCA. Through use of kernel functions, KPCA further enables the preservation of higher-order statistics of the random field, instead of just two-point statistics as in the standard Karhunen-Loeve (K-L) expansion. Thus, this method can model non-Gaussian, non-stationary random fields. In this work, we also propose a new approach to solve the pre-image problem involved in KPCA. In addition, polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used to represent the random coefficients in KPCA which provides a parametric stochastic input model. Thus, realizations, which are statistically consistent with the experimental data, can be generated in an efficient way. We showcase the methodology by constructing a low-dimensional stochastic input model to represent channelized permeability in porous media.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Modeling of a Kaplan Hydroturbine Using Optimal Parametric Tuning and Real Plant Operational Data

To address grid variability caused by renewable energy integration and to maintain grid reliability and resilience, hydropower must quickly adjust its power generation over short time periods. This changing energy generation landscape requires advance technology integration and adaptive parameter optimization for hydropower systems via digital twin effort. However, this is difficult owing to the lack of characterization and modeling for the nonlinear nature of hydroturbines. To solve this issue, this paper first formulates a six-coefficient Kaplan hydroturbine model and then proposes a parametric optimization tuning framework based on the Nelder–Mead algorithm for adaptive dynamic learning of the six-coefficients so as to build models that describe the turbine. To assess the performance of the proposed optimal parametric tuning technique, operational data from a real-world Kaplan hydroturbine unit are collected and used to model the relationship between the gate opening and the generated power production. The findings show that the proposed technique can effectively and adaptively learn the unknown dynamics of the Kaplan hydroturbine while optimally tune the unknown coefficients to match the generated power output from the real hydroturbine unit with an inaccuracy of less than 5%. The method can be used to provides optimal tuning of parameters critical for controller design, operational optimization and daily maintenance for hydroturbines in general.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Skew-Quad Parametric-Resonance Ionization Cooling: Theory and Modeling

Muon beam ionization cooling is a key component for the next generation of high-luminosity muon colliders. To reach adequately high luminosity without excessively large muon intensities, it was proposed previously to combine ionization cooling with techniques using a parametric resonance (PIC). Practical implementation of PIC proposal is a subject of this report. We show that an addition of skew quadrupoles to a planar PIC channel gives enough flexibility in the design to avoid unwanted resonances, while meeting the requirements of radially-periodic beam focusing at ionization-cooling plates, large dynamic aperture and an oscillating dispersion needed for aberration corrections. Theoretical arguments are corroborated with models and a detailed numerical analysis, providing step-by-step guidance for the design of Skew-quad PIC (SPIC) beamline.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Numerical model of solar dynamic radiator for parametric analysis

Growth power requirements for Space Station Freedom will be met through addition of 25 kW solar dynamic (SD) power modules. The SD module rejects waste heat from the power conversion cycle to space through a pumped-loop, multi-panel, deployable radiator. The baseline radiator configuration was defined during the Space Station conceptual design phase and is a function of the state point and heat rejection requirements of the power conversion unit. Requirements determined by the overall station design such as mass, system redundancy, micrometeoroid and space debris impact survivability, launch packaging, costs, and thermal and structural interaction with other station components have also been design drivers for the radiator configuration. Extensive thermal and power cycle modeling capabilities have been developed which are powerful tools in Station design and analysis, but which prove cumbersome and costly for simple component preliminary design studies. In order to aid in refining the SD radiator to the mature design stage, a simple and flexible numerical model was developed. The model simulates heat transfer and fluid flow performance of the radiator and calculates area mass and impact survivability for many combinations of flow tube and panel configurations, fluid and material properties, and environmental and cycle variations. A brief description and discussion of the numerical model, it's capabilities and limitations, and results of the parametric studies performed is presented.

Rhatigan, Jennifer L.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Lattice model for amyloid peptides: OPEP force field parametrization and applications to the nucleus size of Alzheimer’s peptides

Coarse-grained protein lattice models approximate atomistic details and keep the essential interactions. They are, therefore, suitable for capturing generic features of protein folding and amyloid formation at low computational cost. As our aim is to study the critical nucleus sizes of two experimentally well-characterized peptide fragments Aβ{sub 16−22} and Aβ{sub 37−42} of the full length Aβ{sub 1−42} Alzheimer’s peptide, it is important that simulations with the lattice model reproduce all-atom simulations. In this study, we present a comprehensive force field parameterization based on the OPEP (Optimized Potential for Efficient protein structure Prediction) force field for an on-lattice protein model, which incorporates explicitly the formation of hydrogen bonds and directions of side-chains. Our bottom-up approach starts with the determination of the best lattice force parameters for the Aβ{sub 16−22} dimer by fitting its equilibrium parallel and anti-parallel β-sheet populations to all-atom simulation results. Surprisingly, the calibrated force field is transferable to the trimer of Aβ{sub 16−22} and the dimer and trimer of Aβ{sub 37−42}. Encouraged by this finding, we characterized the free energy landscapes of the two decamers. The dominant structure of the Aβ{sub 16−22} decamer matches the microcrystal structure. Pushing the simulations for aggregates between 4-mer and 12-mer suggests a nucleus size for fibril formation of 10 chains. In contrast, the Aβ{sub 37−42} decamer is largely disordered with mixed by parallel and antiparallel chains, suggesting that the nucleus size is >10 peptides. Our refined force field coupled to this on-lattice model should provide useful insights into the critical nucleation number associated with neurodegenerative diseases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Coarse-Grained Double-Stranded RNA Model from Quantum-Mechanical Calculations

A coarse-grained model for simulating structural properties of double-stranded RNA is developed with parameters obtained from quantum-mechanical calculations. This model follows previous parametrization for double stranded DNA, which is based on mapping the all-atom picture to a coarse-grained four-bead scheme. Chemical and structural differences between RNA and DNA have been taken into account for the model development. The parametrization is based on simulations using density functional theory (DFT) on separate units of the RNA molecule without implementing experimental data. The total energy is decomposed into four terms of physical significance: hydrogen bonding interaction, stacking interactions, backbone interactions, and electrostatic interactions. The first three interactions are treated within DFT, whereas the last one is included within a mean field approximation. Our double-stranded RNA coarse-grained model predicts stable helical structures for RNA. Other characteristics, such as structural or mechanical properties are reproduced with a very good accuracy. The development of the coarse-grained model for RNA allows extending the spatial and temporal length scales accessed by computer simulations and being able to model RNA-related biophysical processes, as well as novel RNA nanostructures.

Cruz-León, Sergio↗

DOE OSTI2018

A dynamic stall model for analysis of cross-flow turbines using discrete vortex methods

Cross-flow turbine blades operate in an unsteady environment over large ranges of angle of attack and Reynolds number, often enduring dynamic stall. The hydrodynamics are further complicated because the circular orbit of the blades changes their effective curvature. In order to address these technical challenges with modeling cross-flow turbines, here this article presents a novel dynamic stall model with flow curvature correction. The dynamic stall model extends Beddoes-Leishman dynamic stall theory, including several effects such as proper asymptotic behavior at large (~90°) angles of attack, influence of reduced-pitch rate on the stall angle, dynamics of the flow separation point, and changes in effective camber due to flow curvature. Further, the model enables rapid hydrodynamic analysis of cross-flow turbines using free vortex methods. Important design parameters such as blade thickness and camber are explicitly accounted for in the model, which enables parametric study of turbine configurations and therefore makes the model useful for system-level turbine optimization. Numerical predictions are validated by experimental data for several cases, including ranges of blade profile, toe angle, solidity, and tip speed ratio.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2008

Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

infrared↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates

Abstract Flows in the atmospheric boundary layer are turbulent, characterized by a large Reynolds number, the existence of a roughness sublayer and the absence of a well-defined viscous layer. Exchanges with the surface are therefore dominated by turbulent fluxes. In numerical models for atmospheric flows, turbulent fluxes must be specified at the surface; however, surface fluxes are not known a priori and therefore must be parametrized. Atmospheric flow models, including global circulation, limited area models, and large-eddy simulation, employ Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to parametrize surface fluxes. The MOST approach is a semi-empirical formulation that accounts for atmospheric stability effects through universal stability functions. The stability functions are determined based on limited observations using simple regression as a function of the non-dimensional stability parameter representing a ratio of distance from the surface and the Obukhov length scale (Obukhov in Trudy Inst Theor Geofiz AN SSSR 1:95–115, 1946), $$z/L$$ z / L . However, simple regression cannot capture the relationship between governing parameters and surface-layer structure under the wide range of conditions to which MOST is commonly applied. We therefore develop, train, and test two machine-learning models, an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF), to estimate surface fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture based on surface and near-surface observations. To train and test these machine-learning algorithms, we use several years of observations from the Cabauw mast in the Netherlands and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Field Research Division tower in Idaho. The RF and ANN models outperform MOST. Even when we train the RF and ANN on one set of data and apply them to the second set, they provide more accurate estimates of all of the fluxes compared to MOST. Estimates of sensible heat and moisture fluxes are significantly improved, and model interpretability techniques highlight the logical physical relationships we expect in surface-layer processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2001

Cost model validation: a technical and cultural approach

This paper summarizes how JPL's parametric mission cost model (PMCM) has been validated using both formal statistical methods and a variety of peer and management reviews in order to establish organizational acceptance of the cost model estimates.

cost model validation↗

DOE OSTI2015

Dynamics of Peccei-Quinn breaking field after inflation and axion isocurvature perturbations

The Peccei-Quinn mechanism suffers from the problem of the isocurvature perturbations. The isocurvature perturbations are suppressed if the Peccei-Quinn breaking scale is large during inflation. The oscillation of the Peccei-Quinn breaking field after inflation, however, leads to the formation of domain walls due to the parametric resonance effect. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Peccei-Quinn breaking field after inflation in detail, and propose a model where the parametric resonance is ineffective and hence domain walls are not formed. We also discuss consistency of our model with supersymmetric theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Applying Bayesian parameter estimation to relativistic heavy-ion collisions: Simultaneous characterization of the initial state and quark-gluon plasma medium

We quantitatively estimate properties of the quark-gluon plasma created in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions utilizing Bayesian statistics and a multiparameter model-to-data comparison. The study is performed using a recently developed parametric initial condition model, T R ENTo, which interpolates among a general class of particle production schemes, and a modern hybrid model which couples viscous hydrodynamics to a hadronic cascade.We calibrate the model to multiplicity, transverse momentum, and flow data and report constraints on the parametrized initial conditions and the temperature-dependent transport coefficients of the quark-gluon plasma. We show that initial entropy deposition is consistent with a saturation-based picture, extract a relation between the minimum value and slope of the temperature-dependent specific shear viscosity, and find a clear signal for a nonzero bulk viscosity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Performance Modeling and Optimization

NASA’s Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project conducts ground and flight tests of integrated Megawatt (MW) class hybrid-electric powertrain systems on regional turboprop aircraft demonstrators. To meet the increased demand for assessment of potential capabilities and benefits from these novel vehicle configurations, NASA is developing tooling and models to estimate the performance of hybridized regional turboprops. This paper covers the development of a parametrically driven performance model for a De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400 (Q400) regional turboprop integrated with a novel parallel hybrid architecture using the Gascon framework. Gascon is a modern reimplementation of the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) built using the Condor mathematical modeling framework in Python. Within Gascon, a parametric representation of the parallel hybrid architecture was synthesized, which features the electric motor coupled to the power turbine. This capability allows for in-the-loop optimization of the parametric parallel hybrid architecture to characterize the mission capabilities and fuel savings of the design and determine optimal power scheduling strategies for efficient electric power management for a given mission. The study shows that a fuel savings of up to 20% can be achieved, but that increased fuel savings comes at the expense of payload capacity.

Gascon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Performance Modeling and Optimization

Gascon↗