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A Causal Inference Model Based on Random Forests to Identify the Effect of Soil Moisture on Precipitation

Soil moisture influences precipitation mainly through its impact on land–atmosphere interactions. Understanding and correctly modeling soil moisture–precipitation (SM–P) coupling is crucial for improving weather forecasting and subseasonal to seasonal climate predictions, especially when predicting the persistence and magnitude of drought. However, the sign and spatial structure of SM–P feedback are still being debated in the climate research community, mainly due to the difficulty in establishing causal relationships and the high degree of nonlinearity in land–atmosphere processes. To this end, we developed a causal inference model based on the Granger causality analysis and a nonlinear machine learning model. This model includes three steps: nonlinear anomaly decomposition, nonlinear Granger causality analysis, and evaluation of the quality of SM–P feedback, which eliminates the nonlinear response of interannual and seasonal variability and the memory effects of climatic factors and isolates the causal relationship of local SM–P feedback. We applied this model by using National Climate Assessment–Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) datasets over the United States. Here, the results highlight the importance of nonlinear atmosphere responses in land–atmosphere interactions. In addition, the strong feedback over the southwestern United States and the Great Plains both highlight the impacts of topographic factors rather than only the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to soil moisture. Furthermore, the SM–P index defined by our framework is used to benchmark Earth system models (ESMs), which provides a new metric for efficiently identifying potential model biases in modeling local land–atmosphere interactions and may help the development of ESMs in improving simulations of water cycle variability and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MODELING OF REFLECTIVE PROPAGATING SLOW-MODE WAVE IN A FLARING LOOP

Quasi-periodic propagating intensity disturbances have been observed in large coronal loops in extreme ultraviolet images over a decade, and are widely accepted to be slow magnetosonic waves. However, spectroscopic observations from Hinode/EIS revealed their association with persistent coronal upflows, making this interpretation debatable. We perform a 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic simulation to imitate the chromospheric evaporation and the following reflected patterns in a flare loop. Our model encompasses the corona, transition region, and chromosphere. We demonstrate that the quasi periodic propagating intensity variations captured by the synthesized Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly 131, 94 Å emission images match the previous observations well. With particle tracers in the simulation, we confirm that these quasi periodic propagating intensity variations consist of reflected slow mode waves and mass flows with an average speed of 310 km s{sup −1} in an 80 Mm length loop with an average temperature of 9 MK. With the synthesized Doppler shift velocity and intensity maps of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar Ultraviolet Measurement of Emitted Radiation Fe xix line emission, we confirm that these reflected slow mode waves are propagating waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Scientific discovery in a model-centric framework: Reproducibility, innovation, and epistemic diversity

Consistent confirmations obtained independently of each other lend credibility to a scientific result. We refer to results satisfying this consistency as reproducible and assume that reproducibility is a desirable property of scientific discovery. Yet seemingly science also progresses despite irreproducible results, indicating that the relationship between reproducibility and other desirable properties of scientific discovery is not well understood. These properties include early discovery of truth, persistence on truth once it is discovered, and time spent on truth in a long-term scientific inquiry. We build a mathematical model of scientific discovery that presents a viable framework to study its desirable properties including reproducibility. In this framework, we assume that scientists adopt a model-centric approach to discover the true model generating data in a stochastic process of scientific discovery. We analyze the properties of this process using Markov chain theory, Monte Carlo methods, and agent-based modeling. We show that the scientific process may not converge to truth even if scientific results are reproducible and that irreproducible results do not necessarily imply untrue results. The proportion of different research strategies represented in the scientific population, scientists’ choice of methodology, the complexity of truth, and the strength of signal contribute to this counter-intuitive finding. Important insights include that innovative research speeds up the discovery of scientific truth by facilitating the exploration of model space and epistemic diversity optimizes across desirable properties of scientific discovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evidence for enhanced persistent emission during sub-eddington thermonuclear bursts

In a recent paper we found evidence for an increase in the accretion rate during photospheric radius expansion bursts, quantified by a variable normalization factor f{sub a} on the preburst persistent emission. Here we follow this result up on a much larger sample of 1759 type I X-ray bursts from 56 sources. We show that the variable persistent flux method provides improvements in the quality of spectral fits for type I bursts, whether or not they reach the Eddington luminosity. The new approach has an estimated Bayes factor of 64 improvement over the standard method, and we recommend that the procedure be adopted as standard for analyzing type I bursts. We show evidence that the remaining discrepancies to a formally consistent spectral model are due to the burst component deviating significantly from a blackbody, rather than variations in the spectral shape of the persistent emission component. In bursts that do not show radius expansion, the persistent emission enhancement does not exceed 37% of the Eddington flux. We use this observation to constrain the Eddington flux of sources for which F{sub Edd} has not been directly measured.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multifrequency Analysis of Favored Models for the Messier 87* Accretion Flow

Abstract The polarized images of the supermassive black hole Messier 87* (M87*) produced by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) provide a direct view of the near-horizon emission from a black hole accretion and jet system. The EHT theoretical analysis of the polarized M87* images compared thousands of snapshots from numerical models with a variety of spins, magnetization states, viewing inclinations, and electron energy distributions, and found a small subset consistent with the observed image. In this article, we examine two models favored by EHT analyses: a magnetically arrested disk with moderate retrograde spin and a magnetically arrested disk with high prograde spin. Both have electron distribution functions that lead to strong depolarization by cold electrons. We ray trace five snapshots from each model at 22, 43, 86, 230, 345, and 690 GHz to forecast future very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations and examine limitations in numerical models. We find that even at low frequencies where optical and Faraday rotation depths are large, approximately rotationally symmetric polarization persists, suggesting that shallow depths dominate the polarization signal. However, morphology and spectra suggest that the assumed thermal electron distribution is not adequate to describe emission from the jet. We find 86 GHz images show a ringlike shape determined by a combination of plasma and spacetime imprints, smaller in diameter than recent results from the Global mm-VLBI Array. We find that the photon ring becomes more apparent with increasing frequency, and is more apparent in the retrograde model, leading to large differences between models in asymmetry and polarization structure.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Anomalies in the topology of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background: An analysis of the NPIPE and FFP10 data releases

We present a topological analysis of the temperature fluctuation maps from the Planck 2020 Data Release 4 NPIPE dataset and the Planck 2018 Data Release 3 FFP10 dataset. We performed a multiscale analysis in terms of the homology characteristics of the maps, invoking relative homology to account for the analysis in the presence of masks. We performed our analysis for a range of smoothing scales spanning sub- and super-horizon scales corresponding to a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 5',10',20',40',80',160',320', and 640', and employed simulations based on the standard model for comparison, which assumes the initial fluctuation field to be an isotropic and homogeneous Gaussian random field. Examining the behavior of topological components, represented by the 0D homology group, we find the observations to be approximately 2σ or less deviant from the simulations for all resolutions and scales for the NPIPE dataset. For the FFP10 dataset, we detect a 2.96σ deviation between the observations and simulations at N = 128, FWHM = 80'. For the topological loops, represented by the first homology group, the simulations and observations are consistent within 2σ for most resolutions and scales for both the datasets. However, for the NPIPE dataset, we observe a high deviation between the observation and simulations in the number of loops at FWHM = 320', but at a low dimensionless threshold ν = –2.5. Under a Gaussian assumption, this would amount to a deviation of ~4σ. However, the distribution in this bin is manifestly non-Gaussian and does not obey Poisson statistics either. In the absence of a true theoretical understanding, we simply note that the significance is higher than what may be resolved by 600 simulations, yielding an empirical p-value of at most 0.0016. Specifically in this case, our tests indicate that the numbers arise from a statistically stable regime, despite being based on small numbers. For the FFP10 dataset, the differences are not as strong as for the NPIPE dataset, indicating a 2.77σ deviation at this resolution and threshold. The Euler characteristic, which is the alternating sum of the ranks of relative homology groups, reflects the deviations in the components and loops. To assess the significance of combined levels for a given scale, we employed the empirical and theoretical versions of the χ 2 test as well as the nonparametric Tukey depth test. Although all statistics exhibit a stable distribution, we favor the empirical version of the χ 2 test in the final interpretation, as it indicates the most conservative differences. For the NPIPE dataset, we find that the components and loops differ at more than 95%, but agree within the 99% confidence level with respect to the base model at N = 32, FWHM = 320'. The Euler characteristic at this resolution displays a per mil deviation. In contrast, the FFP10 dataset shows that the observations are consistent with the base model within the 95% confidence level, at this and smaller scales. This is consistent with the observations of the Planck analysis pipeline via Minkowski functionals. For the largest smoothing scale, N = 16, FWHM = 640', both datasets exhibit an anomalous behavior of the loops, where FFP10 data exhibit a deviation that is larger by an order of magnitude than that of the NPIPE dataset. In contrast, the values for the topological components and the Euler characteristic agree between observations and model to within a confidence level of 99%. However, for the largest scales, the statistics are based on low numbers and may have to be regarded with caution. Even though both datasets exhibit mild to significant discrepancies, they also exhibit contrasting behaviors at various instances. Therefore, we do not find it feasible to convincingly accept or reject the null hypothesis. Disregarding the large-scale anomalies that persist at similar scales in WMAP and Planck, observations of the cosmic microwave background are largely consistent with the standard cosmological model within 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Climatic effects of irrigation over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China simulated by the weather research and forecasting model: Simulated Irrigation Effects in China

In this study, we apply the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with an operational-like irrigation scheme to investigate the climatic effects of irrigation over the Huang-Huai-Hai plain (3HP) in China. Multiple numerical experiments with irrigation off/on during spring, summer and both spring and summer are conducted, respectively. Our results show that the warm bias in surface temperature and dry bias in soil moisture are reduced over the 3HP region during growing seasons when irrigation is turned on in the model. Air temperature during non-growing seasons is also affected by irrigation due to the persistent effects of soil moisture on land-air energy exchanges and ground heat storage. Irrigation can induce a cooler planetary boundary layer (PBL) during growing seasons, causing a wetter PBL with more low-level clouds during spring but relatively dryer PBL in summer. Further analyses indicate that the dryer summer is highly related to the changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation that is modified by irrigation effect. Spring irrigation may induce a decreased land-ocean thermal contrast, leading to a possible weaker EASM. Summer irrigation, however, evidently cools the atmosphere column and forces a southward shift of the upper-level jet, which results in more precipitation in Yangtze River basin but less over southern and northern China during summer.

3HP↗

Stability of mineral-organic matter associations under varying biogeochemical conditions

It is well-recognized and documented in the literature that a considerable fraction of the soil organic matter (SOM) is associated with Fe-oxide minerals. Recent studies have also showed that the persistence of various classes of SOM may depend on soil Fe mineralogy. Other laboratory studies with model mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) moieties, which were primarily focused on ferrihydrite, either coated or coprecipitated with natural organic matter (NOM), have suggested that the mineral phase transformation and adsorption-desorption of SOM is rather complex but appears to be largely controlled by the C/Fe ratio of the MAOM moiety and geochemical conditions. It is also clear from multiple recent studies that the nature or type of SOM (microbial vs. plant-derived) adsorbed on mineral surfaces and the rate and extent of SOM biodegradation depend on the type of mineral, and/or metal ions, that are associated with the SOM. Modeling studies that are primarily centered on achieving a better understanding of the effect of mineral type on SOM interactions with minerals and degradation are also reported. These studies have improved the understanding of the nature and stability of MAOM in soils of varying types and under different conditions, positioning researchers to better predict the properties and stabilities of organo-mineral associations in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Abiotic protein fragmentation by manganese oxide: Implications for a mechanism to supply soil biota with oligopeptides

Proteins facilitate a wide range of chemical transformations important in soil as well as being a major reservoir of soil nitrogen themselves. The interactions and reactions of proteins with soils and minerals are of key importance to our understanding of their functional persistence in the environment. We combined NMR and EPR spectroscopies to distinguish the reaction of a model protein with a redox active mineral surface (Birnessite, MnO 2 ) from its response to a redox neutral phyllosilicate (Kaolinite). Our data demonstrate that birnessite fragments the model protein while kaolinite has little impact on the protein structure. NMR and EPR spectroscopies are shown to be valuable tools to observe these reactions and capture the extent of protein transformation together with the extent of mineral response. These data suggest that mineral surfaces can have both promoting and retarding roles in terrestrial nitrogen cycling, with redox active minerals acting as accelerators by catalyzing the breakdown of proteins and proteinaceous materials while phyllosilicates are more likely to act as preservative media.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Asian-Australian summer monsoons linkage to ENSO strengthened by global warming

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) used to affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and Australian summer monsoon (AusSM) precipitation in different ways but global warming may have changed it. This study built robust annual ASM (AusSM) precipitation reconstructions during 1588–2013 (1588–1999) to examine the ENSO-monsoon relationship and how it has changed. During the period of 1588–1850 when natural climate variability was dominant, the ENSO-monsoon and inter-monsoon relationship was weak and non-stationary. Since 1850, however, both the inter-monsoon and ENSO-monsoon relationships saw an enhancement and this trend has been persistent to the present day, suggesting the influence of anthropogenic climate warming. Further analysis of climate model projections found that global warming can strengthen the ENSO-monsoon association that, subsequently, acts to synchronize the ASM and AusSM variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MAPPING THE SURFACE OF THE MAGNETAR 1E 1048.1–5937 IN OUTBURST AND QUIESCENCE THROUGH PHASE-RESOLVED X-RAY SPECTROSCOPY

We model the pulse profiles and the phase-resolved spectra of the anomalous X-ray pulsar 1E 1048.1–5937 obtained with XMM-Newton to map its surface temperature distribution during an active and a quiescent epoch. We develop and apply a model that takes into account the relevant physical and geometrical effects on the neutron star surface, magnetosphere, and spacetime. Using this model, we determine the observables at infinity as a function of pulse phase for different numbers and sizes of hot spots on the surface. We show that the pulse profiles extracted from both observations can be modeled with a single hot spot and an antipodal cool component. The size of the hot spot changes from ≈80° in 2007, three months after the onset of a dramatic flux increase, to ≈30° during the quiescent observation in 2011, when the pulsed fraction returned to the pre-outburst ≈65% level. For the 2007 observation, we also find that a model consisting of a single 0.4 keV hot spot with a magnetic field strength of 1.8 × 10{sup 14} G accounts for the spectra obtained at three different pulse phases but underpredicts the flux at the pulse minimum, where the contribution to the emission from the cooler component is non-negligible. The inferred temperature of the spot stays approximately constant between different pulse phases, in agreement with a uniform temperature, single hot spot model. These results suggest that the emitting area grows significantly during outbursts but returns to its persistent and significantly smaller size within a timescale of a few years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Supernova constraints on multi-coupled dark energy

The persisting consistency of ever more accurate observational data with the predictions of the standard ΛCDM cosmological model puts severe constraints on possible alternative scenarios, but still does not shed any light on the fundamental nature of the cosmic dark sector. As large deviations from a ΛCDM cosmology are ruled out by data, the path to detect possible features of alternative models goes necessarily through the definition of cosmological scenarios that leave almost unaffected the background and — to a lesser extent — the linear perturbations evolution of the universe. In this context, the Multi-coupled DE (McDE) model was proposed by Baldi [9] as a particular realization of an interacting Dark Energy field characterized by an effective screening mechanism capable of suppressing the effects of the coupling at the background and linear perturbation level. In the present paper, for the first time, we challenge the McDE scenario through a direct comparison with real data, in particular with the luminosity distance of Type Ia supernovae. By studying the existence and stability conditions of the critical points of the associated background dynamical system, we select only the cosmologically consistent solutions, and confront their background expansion history with data. Confirming previous qualitative results, the McDE scenario appears to be fully consistent with the adopted sample of Type Ia supernovae, even for coupling values corresponding to an associated scalar fifth-force about four orders of magnitude stronger than standard gravity. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the McDE background screening, and shows some new non-trivial asymptotic solutions for the future evolution of the universe. Clearly, linear perturbation data and, even more, nonlinear structure formation properties are expected to put much tighter constraints on the allowed coupling range. Nonetheless, our results show how the background expansion history might be highly insensitive to the fundamental nature and to the internal complexity of the dark sector.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spin dynamics in the itinerant antiferromagnet SrCr 2 ⁢As 2

SrCr 2 ⁢As 2 is an itinerant antiferromagnet in the same structural family as the SrFe 2 ⁢As 2 high-temperature superconductors. Here, we report our calculations of exchange-coupling parameters 𝐽 𝑖⁢𝑗 for SrCr 2 ⁢As 2 using a static linear-response method based on first-principles electronic-structure calculations. We find that the dominant nearest-neighbor exchange coupling 𝐽 1 >0 is antiferromagnetic whereas the next-nearest-neighbor exchange coupling 𝐽 2 <0 is ferromagnetic with 𝐽 2 /𝐽 1 = −0.68, reinforcing the checkerboard in-plane magnetic structure. Thus, unlike other transition-metal arsenides based on Mn, Fe, or Co, we find no competing magnetic interactions in SrCr 2 ⁢As 2 , which aligns with experimental findings. Moreover, the orbital resolution of exchange interactions shows that 𝐽 1 and 𝐽 2 are dominated by direct exchange mediated by the Cr 𝑑 orbitals. To validate the calculations we conduct inelastic neutron-scattering measurements on powder samples that show steeply dispersive magnetic excitations arising from the magnetic Γ points and persisting up to energies of at least 175 meV. The spin-wave spectra are then modeled using the Heisenberg Hamiltonian with the theoretically calculated exchange couplings. In conclusion, the calculated neutron-scattering spectra are in good agreement with the experimental data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

HTS Dipole Magnet With Mechanical Energy Transfer in the Magnetic Field

Several high-temperature superconducting (HTS) model magnets for particle accelerators were designed and successfully tested at Fermilab. Some worked in a persistent current mode by continuously generating magnetic fields in the iron-dominated magnet gap. This paper investigated a novel HTS dipole magnet concept with a mechanical energy transfer in the magnetic field. To pump the energy in the superconducting HTS dipole magnet, a detachable magnetizer was used. The HTS dipole magnet was built and successfully tested at a liquid nitrogen temperature. We discuss the magnet design, test results, the proposed approach limits, and efficiency.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Persistent Current Simulation for CCT Testing Magnet Used in EIC

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), a powerful new facility to be built in the United States at the U.S. Department of Energy's Brookhaven National Laboratory in collaboration with Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, will explore the most fundamental building blocks of nearly all visible matter. Here, there are many different types of superconducting magnets near the interaction region (IR) of EIC. Due to space constraints and special lattice requirements, Tapered CCT (canted-cosine theta) magnets have been used for EIC. At beam injection, the magnetic field is only ~5.5% of the maximum operating field. Considerable field errors will be generated from persistent current in superconducting strands even using very fine filament for those superconductors. A tapered CCT demonstrator magnet has been built and tested successfully at BNL since July 2020 to evaluate the key technologies for future tapered CCT magnets. In October 2023, BNL team also measured the persistent current in this demonstrator magnet. To validate the persistent current simulation methods for CCT magnets in EIC, this paper used a full 3D Opera Model and measured magnetization data from superconducting strand for the simulation. Simulation results showed reasonable agreement with recent measurement results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A roadmap to understanding and anticipating microbial gene transfer in soil communities

Engineered microbes are being programmed using synthetic DNA for applications in soil to overcome global challenges related to climate change, energy, food security, and pollution. However, we cannot yet predict gene transfer processes in soil to assess the frequency of unintentional transfer of engineered DNA to environmental microbes when applying synthetic biology technologies at scale. This challenge exists because of the complex and heterogeneous characteristics of soils, which contribute to the fitness and transport of cells and the exchange of genetic material within communities. Here, we describe knowledge gaps about gene transfer across soil microbiomes. Here, we propose strategies to improve our understanding of gene transfer across soil communities, highlight the need to benchmark the performance of biocontainment measures in situ, and discuss responsibly engaging community stakeholders. We highlight opportunities to address knowledge gaps, such as creating a set of soil standards for studying gene transfer across diverse soil types and measuring gene transfer host range across microbiomes using emerging technologies. By comparing gene transfer rates, host range, and persistence of engineered microbes across different soils, we posit that community-scale, environment-specific models can be built that anticipate biotechnology risks. Such studies will enable the design of safer biotechnologies that allow us to realize the benefits of synthetic biology and mitigate risks associated with the release of such technologies.

bioccontainment↗

Grand-design Spiral Arms in a Young Forming Circumstellar Disk

We study formation and long-term evolution of a circumstellar disk in a collapsing molecular cloud core using a resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulation. While the formed circumstellar disk is initially small, it grows as accretion continues, and its radius becomes as large as 200 au toward the end of the Class-I phase. A pair of grand-design spiral arms form due to gravitational instability in the disk, and they transfer angular momentum in the highly resistive disk. Although the spiral arms disappear in a few rotations as expected in a classical theory, new spiral arms form recurrently as the disk, soon becoming unstable again by gas accretion. Such recurrent spiral arms persist throughout the Class-0 and I phases. We then perform synthetic observations and compare our model with a recent high-resolution observation of a young stellar object Elias 2–27, whose circumstellar disk has grand-design spiral arms. We find good agreement between our theoretical model and the observation. Our model suggests that the grand-design spiral arms around Elias 2–27 are consistent with material arms formed by gravitational instability. If such spiral arms commonly exist in young circumstellar disks, it implies that young circumstellar disks are considerably massive and gravitational instability is the key process of angular momentum transport.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Satellite observation of the mesospheric scattering layer and implied climatic consequences

Recent satellite photometry of the airglow has detected an extensive, though tenous, scattering layer above the summer polar cap. Located near the mesopause, the layer persists throughout the summer season poleward of about 75 deg latitude. By employing a simple growth model for the layer a time dependent radiative transfer model has been developed to examine radiative temperature perturbations. As was anticipated, the global temperature perturbations are negligible. However, in the polar region the impact is probably nonnegligible, the temperature decrease being of the order of a few tenths of a degree. The climatological implications of the layer on the polar region are discussed.

Hummel, J. R.↗