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More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

Lunar Surface Rovers

Many questions of lunar science remain unanswered because of a lack of specific data. With the potential for returning humans to the Moon and establishing a long-term presence there, a new realm of exploration is possible. Numerous plans have been outlined for orbital and surface missions. The capabilities and objectives of a small class of rovers to be deployed on the lunar surface are described. The objective of these small rovers is to collect detailed in situ information about the composition and distribution of materials on the lunar surface. Those data, in turn, would be applied to a variety of lunar geoscience questions and form a basis for planning human activities on the lunar surface.

Plescia, J. B.↗

THz Technology for Space Communications

As space instruments become ubiquitous along with advancing capabilities, one of the central challenge is to provide more efficient communication links, between the control center and the instrument or between a cluster of satellites or instruments. Similarly, high-data rate communications between a mother ship and a lander is highly desirable not only for navigation but for science data as well. THz communications systems present a number of advantages in implementing efficient data-links between various scenarios for space applications. This review article will discuss some of the recent advances in solid-state coherent sources that has now made it possible to design and implement THz communication systems specifically for space applications. An example architecture at 240 GHz has been suggested as it is now possible to achieve >100 mW of output power at 240 GHz. With highly sensitive and linear heterodyne mixers, such a system could potentially provide higher data rate capability than in use today.

Jornet, Josep M.↗

THz technology for space communications

As space instruments become ubiquitous along with advancing capabilities, one of the central challenge is to provide more efficient communication links, between the control center and the instrument or between a cluster of satellites or instruments. Similarly, high-data rate communications between a mother ship and a lander is highly desirable not only for navigation but for science data as well. THz communications systems present a number of advantages in implementing efficient data-links between various scenarios for space applications. This review article will discuss some of the recent advances in solid-state coherent sources that has now made it possible to design and implement THz communication systems specifically for space applications. An example architecture at 240 GHz has been suggested as it is now possible to achieve >100 mW of output power at 240 GHz. With highly sensitive and linear heterodyne mixers, such a system could potentially provide higher data rate capability than in use today.

Jornet, Josep M.↗

60-GHz integrated-circuit high data rate quadriphase shift keying exciter and modulator

An integrated-circuit quadriphase shift keying (QPSK) exciter and modulator have demonstrated excellent performance directly modulating a carrier frequency of 60 GHz with an output phase error of less than 3 degrees and maximum amplitude error of 0.5 dB. The circuit consists of a 60-GHz Gunn VCO phase-locked to a low-frequency reference source, a 4th subharmonic mixer, and a QPSK modlator packaged into a small volume of 1.8 x 2.5 x 0.35 in. The use of microstrip has the advantages of small size, light-weight, and low-cost fabrication. The unit has the potential for multigigabit data rate applications.

Grote, A.↗

24-hour human urine and serum profiles of Bisphenol A following ingestion in soup: Individual pharmacokinetic data and emographics

Here we present data to evaluate potential absorption of Bisphenol A through non-metabolizing tissues of the upper digestive tract. Concurrent serum and urine concentrations of d6-BPA, and its glucuronide and sulfate conjugates, were measured over a 24 h period in 10 adult male volunteers following ingestion of 30 μg d6-BPA/kg body weight in soup. The pharmacokinetic behavior of BPA and its metabolites in this cohort (rapid absorption, complete elimination, evidence against sublingual absorption) was reported. This Data in Brief article contains the corresponding individual pharmacokinetic data, reports the demographics of the cohort and provides additional details related to the analytical methods employed and is related to [4].

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Supportability↗

CARETS: A prototype regional environmental information system. Volume 13: Utility of CARETS products to local planners; an evaluation

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) in cooperation with and under contract to the U.S. Geological Survey, conducted an evaluation of the utility of remote-sensor derived land use data produced by the USGS Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site (CARETS) project. Investigators invited representatives of Washington, D.C. metropolitan area planning agencies to a workshop, introduced them to the CARETS products, and asked them to evaluate the products. In follow-up interviews, planners from 12 participating agencies reported general support for the fulI spectrum of CARETS products but gave more positive responses towards products with which they had some familiarity. Planners considered some products of limited utility because of (1) insufficient detail, (2) too small a scale, or (3) lack of technical capability to incorporate the information and products into the current planning process. Some planners expressed doubt about the application of CARETS products in most day-to-day planning activities , which involve specific rezoning requests or site development plans requiring highly localized data. The greatest potential of the CARETS products was in the identification of broad development patterns at the county or regional level. An appendix documents the results of an inventory of local government decisions relating to land use.

Land use planning↗

Dissemination and Use of NPOESS Data in AWIPS II

Real-time satellite information provides one of many data sources used by NWS forecast offices to diagnose current weather conditions and to assist in short-term forecast preparation. While GOES satellite data provides relatively coarse spatial resolution coverage of the continental U.S. on a 10-15 minute repeat cycle, polar orbiting data has the potential to provide snapshots of weather conditions at high-resolution in many spectral channels. The multispectral polar orbiting satellite capabilities allow for the derivation of image and sounding products not available from geostationary orbit. The utility of these polar orbiting measurements to forecasters has been demonstrated with NASA EOS observations as part of the Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPORT) program at Marshall Space Flight Center. SPORT scientists have been providing real-time MODIS data to NWS forecasters on an experimental basis to address a variety of short-term weather forecasting problems since 2003. The launch of the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite in 2009 will extend the continuity of high-resolution data provided by the NASA EOS satellites into future operational weather systems. The NPP data will be available in a timeframe consistent with the early installation of the next generation Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS) under development by Raytheon for the NWS. The AWIPS II system will be a JAVA-based decision support system which preserves the functionality of the existing systems and offers unique development opportunities for new data sources and applications in the Service Orientated Architecture (SOA) environment. The poster will highlight some of the advanced observing and display- capabilities of these new systems such as plug-ins for NASA and NPP datasets, and the development of local applications which are not well handled in the current AWIPS (e.g., 3D displays of LMA data, generation and display of 3-channel color composites, etc.).

Jedlovec, Gary↗

Conceptual Problems in Land Surface Data Assimilation

A land data assimilation system (LDAS) merges observations (or satellite retrievals) of land surface hydrological conditions, including soil moisture, snow, and terrestrial water storage (TWS), into a numerical model of land surface processes. In theory, the output from such a system is superior to estimates based on the observations or the model alone, thereby enhancing our ability to understand, monitor, and predict key elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In practice, however, several conceptual problems can interfere with realizing the potential improvements from data assimilation. Of particular concern is the frequent mismatch between the assimilated observations and the land surface model variables of interest. The seminar will discuss recent research with the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-S LDAS to address various aspects of this mismatch. These aspects include (i) the assimilation of coarse-scale observations into higher-resolution land surface models, (ii) the partitioning of satellite observations (such as TWS retrievals) into their constituent water cycle components, (iii) the forward modeling of microwave brightness temperatures over land for radiance-based land surface data aSSimilation, and (iv) the selection of the most relevant types of observations for the analysis of a specific water cycle variable (such as root zone soil moisture). At its core, the solution to the above challenges involves the careful construction of an observation operator that maps from the land surface model variables of interest to the space of the assimilated observations.

Reichle, Rolf↗

The massive survey. IV. The X-ray halos of the most massive early-type galaxies in the nearby universe

Studies of the physical properties of local elliptical galaxies are shedding new light on galaxy formation. Here we present the hot-gas properties of 33 early-type systems within the MASSIVE galaxy survey that have archival Chandra X-ray observations, and we use these data to derive X-ray luminosities (L{sub X,gas}) and plasma temperatures (T{sub gas}) for the diffuse gas components. We combine this with the ATLAS{sup 3D} survey to investigate the X-ray–optical properties of a statistically significant sample of early-type galaxies across a wide range of environments. When X-ray measurements are performed consistently in apertures set by the galaxy stellar content, we deduce that all early types (independent of galaxy mass, environment, and rotational support) follow a universal scaling law such that L{sub X,gas}∝T{sub gas}{sup ∼4.5}. We further demonstrate that the scatter in L{sub X,gas} around both K-band luminosity (L {sub K}) and the galaxy stellar velocity dispersion (σ{sub e}) is primarily driven by T{sub gas}, with no clear trends with halo mass, radio power, or angular momentum of the stars. It is not trivial to tie the gas origin directly to either stellar mass or galaxy potential. Indeed, our data require a steeper relation between L{sub X,gas},L{sub K}, and σ{sub e} than predicted by standard mass-loss models. Finally, we find that T{sub gas} is set by the galaxy potential inside the optical effective radius. We conclude that within the innermost 10–30 kpc region, early types maintain pressure-supported hot gas, with a minimum T{sub gas} set by the virial temperature, but the majority show evidence for additional heating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A strategy to study regional hydrology and terrestrial ecosystem processes using satellite remote sensing, ground-based data and computer modeling

A strategy is presented for integrating scanning multichannel microwave radiometer data from the Nimbus-7 satellite with meteorological station records and computer simulations of land surface hydrology, terrestrial nutrient cycling, and trace gas emission. Analysis of the observations together with radiative transfer analysis shows that in the tropics the temporal and spatial variations of the polarization difference are determined primarily by the structure and phenology of vegetation and seasonal inundations of major rivers and wetlands. It is concluded that the proposed surface hydrology model, along with climatological records, and, potentially, 37-GHz data for phenology, will provide inputs to a terrestrial ecosystem model that predicts regional net primary production and CO2 gas exchange.

Vorosmarty, C.↗

The use of Earth Resources Technology Satellite for relaying hydrologic data in the Delaware River basin

The earth resources data acquisition systems on ERTS are providing data from the earth's surface that have great potential for resources management. The Data Collection System is providing water resources data several times a day from widely scattered locations in the Delaware River Basin. Within the constraints of an experimental test, the data are being processed and released to water resources agencies in near-real time. The results of ERTS investigations have shown that there is a potential application for satellite-borne systems for earth resources data acquisition. It is becoming clear that the solutions to many natural resource problems can be found faster and more efficiently with the help of data acquisition systems such as those on the ERTS observatory. Under operational conditions, low cost battery-operated DCP's could provide the Geological Survey with data from a large number of field instruments. These data could be used by the Geological Survey to monitor the operational status of field instrumentation and could be used by cooperating agencies to monitor a wide range of earth resources conditions. Under operational conditions, the data flow could be in real time. The delay from time of data acquisition by ERTS to the time of data availability to data users could be reduced to seconds, rather than the present lag time of a few hours.

Paulson, R. W.↗

Enabling Scalable and Extensible Memory-mapped Datastores in Userspace

Exascale workloads are expected to incorporate data-intensive processing in close coordination with traditional physics simulations. These emerging scientific, data-analytics and machine learning applications need to access a wide variety of datastores in flat files and structured databases. Programmer productivity is greatly enhanced by mapping datastores into the application process's virtual memory space to provide a unified “in-memory” interface. Currently, memory mapping is provided by system software primarily designed for generality and reliability. However, scalability at high concurrency is a formidable challenge on exascale systems. Also, there is a need for extensibility to support new datastores potentially requiring HPC data transfer services. In this article, we present UMap , a scalable and extensible userspace service for memory-mapping datastores. Furthermore, through decoupled queue management, concurrency aware adaptation, and dynamic load balancing, UMap enables application performance to scale even at high concurrency. We evaluate UMap in data-intensive applications, including sorting, graph traversal, database operations, and metagenomic analytics. Our results show that UMap as a userspace service outperforms an optimized kernel-based service across a wide range of intra-node concurrency by 1.22-1.9 × . We performed two case studies to demonstrate UMap 's extensibility. First, a new datastore residing in remote memory is incorporated into UMap as an application-specific plugin. Second, we present a persistent memory allocator Metall built atop UMap for unified storage/memory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Interpreting biomarker data from the COPHES/DEMOCOPHES twin projects: Using external exposure data to understand biomarker differences among countries

In 2011 and 2012, the COPHES/DEMOCOPHES twin projects performed the first ever harmonized human biomonitoring survey in 17 European countries. In more than 1800 mother–child pairs, individual lifestyle data were collected and cadmium, cotinine and certain phthalate metabolites were measured in urine. Total mercury was determined in hair samples. While the main goal of the COPHES/DEMOCOPHES twin projects was to develop and test harmonized protocols and procedures, the goal of the current paper is to investigate whether the observed differences in biomarker values among the countries implementing DEMOCOPHES can be interpreted using information from external databases on environmental quality and lifestyle. In general, 13 countries having implemented DEMOCOPHES provided high-quality data from external sources that were relevant for interpretation purposes. However, some data were not available for reporting or were not in line with predefined specifications. Therefore, only part of the external information could be included in the statistical analyses. Nonetheless, there was a highly significant correlation between national levels of fish consumption and mercury in hair, the strength of antismoking legislation was significantly related to urinary cotinine levels, and we were able to show indications that also urinary cadmium levels were associated with environmental quality and food quality. These results again show the potential of biomonitoring data to provide added value for (the evaluation of) evidence-informed policy making. - Highlights: • External data was collected to interpret HBM data from DEMOCOPHES. • Hg in hair could be related to fish consumption across different countries. • Urinary cotinine was related to strictness of anti-smoking legislation. • Urinary Cd was borderline significantly related to air and food quality. • Lack of comparable data among countries hampered the analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA GSFC Elastic Backscatter Lidar Efforts Relevant to EarthCARE Calibration/Validation and Synergistic Data Products

At NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), several airborne elastic backscatter lidar instruments have been developed to measure vertical profiles of aerosols and cloud in the atmosphere. Here, we present an overview of our airborne capabilities that could be utilized for EarthCare Calibration/Validation through current efforts to leverage joint NASA-ESA field deployments such as the IMPact of Aerosols on Convection in the Tropics (IMPACT). Additionally, GSFC is leading the development of the Atmospheric Lidar Instrument for Clouds and Aerosol Transport (ALICAT) elastic backscatter lidar that is planned to fly in the upcoming NASA Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) Decadal Survey Mission at the end of this decade. We also present an overview of the instrument and potential synergy of data products that could leveraged should the EarthCare and AOS missions overlap.

backscatter↗

Analysis of hyper-spectral AVIRIS image data over a mixed-conifer forest in Maine

An introduction to some of the potential uses of hyperspectral data for ecosystem analysis is presented. The examples given are derived from a digital dataset acquired over a sub-boreal forest in central Maine in 1990 by the NASA-JPL Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) instrument gathers data from 400 to 2500 nm in 224 channels at bandwidths of approximately 10 nm. As a preview to the uses of the hyperspectral data, several products from this dataset were extracted. They range from the traditional false color composite made from simulated Thematic Mapper bands and the well known normalized difference vegetation index to much more exotic products such as fractions of vegetation, soil and shade based on linear spectral mixing models and estimates of the leaf water content at the landscape level derived using spectrum-matching techniques. Our research and that of many others indicates that the hyperspectral datasets carry much important information which is only beginning to be understood. This analysis gives an initial indication of the utility of hyperspectral data. Much work still remains to be done in algorithm development and in understanding the physics behind the complex information signal carried in the hyperspectral datasets. This work must be carried out to provide the fullest science support for high spectral resolution data to be acquired by many of the instruments to be launched as part of the Earth Observing System program in the mid-1990's.

Lawrence, William T.↗