Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “predictive model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,059 records · Page 50
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2026

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Properties and Processes

Although sea ice covers ~9% of the world’s oceans, its presence, and absence, vastly alter the energetic balance of Earth’s climate. Because of geographic differences, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have different dominant properties and processes, which produce different responses to natural variability and anthropogenic change. In this Review, we survey changes in sea-ice properties and processes of the Arctic and Antarctic environments. In the Arctic, the melt season has lengthened by ~7.4 days decade −1 (1979-2024). There has been a corresponding decrease in winter sea-ice thickness (1.6 m mean total over 1980-2023), summer surface albedo (0.03 decade −1 over 1979-2020), and spring snow depth (2.5 cm decade −1 over 1954-2024). In comparison, corresponding changes in the Antarctic are small overall due to contrasting regional and temporal trends. From a dynamic perspective, sea-ice motion in both hemispheres has increased, with 0.63 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Arctic (1978-2024) and 0.69 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Antarctic (1982-2024), whereas trends in polynya occurrence differ by region. Future research should prioritize sea-ice observations that can inform how the climate system responds to natural variability and anthropogenic change, be standardized to increase uptake by the broader scientific community, and target process-oriented interactions to support model development.

Melinda A Webster↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decoupling thermal and irradiation effects on grain boundary segregation

Radiation-induced segregation (RIS) is most often measured by peak solute concentration at a boundary. However, this may give an incomplete picture of segregation quantity and phenomena. Radiation-induced and thermal segregation at grain boundaries was investigated in Fe-9.6 at.% Cr after 9 MeV Fe 3+ ion irradiation at 400 °C. The experimental results were compared to kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The study revealed that Cr enrichment (peak segregation) at the grain boundaries was comparable in both the irradiated and non-irradiated conditions, although irradiation resulted in broader segregation profiles in both experiments and simulations, indicating an overall increase in grain boundary segregation due to irradiation. This broadening is attributed to back diffusion into the grain interior. While it is an established phenomenon, this study offers a quantitative evaluation using experimental data and KMC modeling. Further, these results emphasize the importance of analyzing the entire segregation profile and decoupling the thermal and irradiation contributions to solute segregation.

Grain boundary segregation↗
DOE OSTI2025

CASM Monte Carlo: Calculations of the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of complex multicomponent crystals

Monte Carlo techniques play a central role in statistical mechanics approaches that connect macroscopic thermodynamic and kinetic properties to the electronic structure of a material. This paper describes the implementation of Monte Carlo techniques for the study of multicomponent crystalline materials within the Clusters Approach to Statistical Mechanics (CASM) software suite, and demonstrates their use in model systems to calculate free energies and kinetic coefficients, study phase transitions, and construct phase diagrams from first principles. Many crystal structures are complex, with multiple sublattices occupied by differing sets of chemical species, along with the presence of vacancies or interstitial species. This imposes constraints on concentration variables, the form of thermodynamic potentials, and the values of kinetic transport coefficients. The framework used by CASM to formulate thermodynamic potentials and kinetic transport coefficients accounting for arbitrarily complex crystal structures is presented and demonstrated with examples of increasing complexity. Additionally, an overview of the capabilities of the CASM software specific to Monte Carlo methods is given, and a new CASM software package is introduced, casm-flow, which helps automate the setup, submission, management, and analysis of Monte Carlo simulations.

Cluster expansion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of Online Cross-Section Generation Capability with Depletion and Transient Solvers in Griffin

Griffin is a Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based reactor multiphysics analysis application jointly developed by Argonne and Idaho National Laboratories under the DOENE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. In FY25, an online crosssection generation capability based on the Self-Shielding Application Programming Interface (SSAPI) was demonstrated for TRISO-fueled reactor problems under steady-state conditions. This fiscal year, that capability was extended to support depletion and transient multiphysics calculations, enabling high-fidelity analyses that generate self-shielded cross sections on the fly from the actual evolving composition and temperature states rather than from pre-tabulated libraries. For depletion, a two-way coupling was established in which SSAPI computes compact-averaged self-shielded cross sections that the depletion solver then uses to advance the Bateman equations, with the updated compositions returned to SSAPI at each step; the depletion module was refactored to support both library-based and SSAPI-based cross sections, and additional logic was added to track daughter isotopes and to exclude minor isotopes for efficiency. For transient analysis, the SSAPI multigroup library was extended with the kinetics data required for time-dependent calculations, the Improved Quasi-Static (IQS) scheme was coupled with SSAPI, and several supporting capabilities were implemented, including a self-shielding treatment that lets control rods and drums move within a self-shielded model, which had previously been impossible and had ruled out rod- and drum-movement transients with on-the-fly cross sections altogether, a new mixing scheme for delayed-neutron precursor decay constants, a checkpoint-based restart workflow, and performance improvements such as pointwise cross-section interpolation and the bypassing of unnecessary Dancoff factor calculations. The implemented capabilities were verified against Serpent Monte Carlo solutions. For depletion, a prismatic pin-cell problem based on a Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Very High Temperature Reactor benchmark showed excellent agreement, with eigenvalue differences within 200 pcm over the entire burnup range (up to 140 MWD/kgU) and fission-product and actinide inventories agreeing to within 0.8% and 2.5%, respectively; a heat-pipe microreactor assembly problem with a much higher fuel loading confirmed the same behavior and quantified the bias introduced when the multigroup equivalence effect is neglected. For transient analysis, a pin-cell problem with a step reactivity insertion and temperature feedback reproduced the analytically expected asymptotic power and showed close agreement between the direct and IQS solutions, and a two-dimensional microreactor core problem with control-drum rotation exercised the new moving-drum self-shielding treatment and demonstrated successful coupling of the online crosssection generation with both the direct and IQS transient methods. The capability was further exercised on a full-core pebble-bed problem, in which Griffin was coupled with the System Analysis Module (SAM) to simulate load-following operation of the gPBR with the Doppler feedback resolved at the TRISO fuel kernel temperature. These developments in Griffin provide a convenient, high-fidelity approach to cross-section generation for advanced thermal reactors with geometrically complex and highly heterogeneous configurations, including TRISO-fueled prismatic and pebble-bed systems, and support steady-state, depletion, and transient multiphysics calculations. They also enable self-shielded cross sections to be evaluated directly at the actual coupled state of the system, thereby establishing a foundation for high-fidelity, fully coupled multiphysics analysis of advanced reactors

Park, H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

In-Situ Visualization of a Growing Brittle Crack in Aluminum Oxynitride Using Synchrotron X-Rays and the Double-Cleavage Drilled Compression Geometry

Brittle fracture is difficult to study in situ due to the speed of a growing crack and the often-catastrophic nature of failure in brittle materials. As a result, the influence of microstructural considerations, such as orientation, grain boundary locations, and strain field, on the crack path remains poorly understood. Presented in this study is a method addressing this knowledge gap, which utilizes the double-cleavage drilled compression geometry to achieve quasi-stable fracture in aluminum oxynitride (AlON). Synchrotron X-ray micro-computed tomography is used to characterize the crack shape and length, while high-energy diffraction microscopy provides information on the strains, orientations, and shapes of grains in the microstructure surrounding the crack tip. During testing, the crack grew in discrete and irregular jumps while the fracture toughness falls within reported ranges. The crack in AlON is found to have no greater tendency to crack intergranularly as compared to transgranularly, and grains which are cracked transgranularly do not display a trend in orientation or stress when compared to those around which the crack followed a grain boundary. The high resolution of the crack path and microstructural data provides a path forward for modeling and understanding 3D brittle fracture.

Gorske, Sara F.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dissecting Disorder: Defect-Driven Structural Complexity in Layered Li3InCl6 Solid Electrolyte

Halide solid electrolytes have emerged as promising candidates for solid-state batteries owing to their high oxidative stability and ionic conductivity. Among them, Li3InCl6 (LIC) has attracted significant attention. However, diffraction patterns of LIC synthesized via different methods exhibit distinct differences particularly at low-angle reflectionsindicative of underlying structural disorder. These variations are attributed to deviations from ideal crystallographic order, especially stacking faults, whose impact on structure and ion transport remains poorly understood. Here, we identify and quantify stacking faults in LIC samples prepared under different synthetic conditions. Using X-ray diffraction and time-of-flight neutron diffraction, we construct and refine stacking fault models that accurately reproduce the experimental diffraction features. LIC samples with higher degrees of stacking faults exhibit only negligible differences in ionic conductivities and activation energies. This indicates that stacking faults have a limited impact on altering the Li+ diffusion pathway along the c-axis, likely due to the high concentration of vacancies in the In layers, while Li+ diffusion remains nearly unchanged in the ab-plane. Our results account for the observed differences in diffraction patterns across samples and provide a quantitative assessment of faulting probabilities and stacking sequences. The insights gained from this study are expected to be broadly applicable to other layered halide solid electrolytes and contribute to a deeper understanding of the role of structural disorder in ion transport.

Liu, Jue [ORNL] (ORCID:000000024453910X)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Under Pressure: The Artemis I Heatshield Char Loss Investigation and Artemis II’s Successful Entry

Following the successful Artemis I skip reentry on December 11, 2022, unexpected char liberation from the Orion heat- shield prompted formation of an Anomaly Response Team to determine root cause and establish flight rationale and corrective actions for subsequent missions. Through a comprehensive investigation including detailed hardware analysis, modeling & simulation, and ground testing, the team determined that the low permeability Avcoat experienced extreme internal gas pressure buildup during the skip entry that could not adequately outgas, leading to crack formation and char liberation. Key discoveries included significant performance differences between permeable and impermeable heatshield regions and successful replication of the anomaly through ground testing. Based on extensive ground testing and analysis, Artemis II flew a modified trajectory without the skip entry to minimize crack-inducing conditions, and successfully splashed down on April 10, 2026 with significantly reduced char loss. For Artemis III and beyond, a corrective action was implemented to produce a more permeable version of Avcoat that will substantially reduce internal pressure accumulation during entry.

Artemis II↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust Biaxial Anisotropy and Switchable Néel Vectors in LaFeO 3 Epitaxial Films

Antiferromagnets with highly stable but switchable Néel vectors are desired for antiferromagnetic spintronics with ultrafast speed and terahertz frequencies. Electrical switching of antiferromagnetic insulators has been demonstrated using binary antiferromagnets, while large families of complex antiferromagnets such as perovskites are largely unexplored. Here, we show that epitaxial LaFeO 3 thin films on SrTiO 3 (001) exhibit clear, robust biaxial anisotropy with a spin-flop field of a few tesla. Angular-dependent spin-Hall magnetoresistance (SMR) characterizations of Pt/LaFeO 3 bilayers with the current channel along SrTiO 3 [100] and [110] reveal distinct, intriguing shapes and field dependence. Simulations using a macrospin model accurately describe the main behavior and fine features of the SMR data from which key antiferromagnetic parameters are extracted. Furthermore, remanent SMR measurement confirms the high fidelity of the Néel vector along either easy axis of the biaxial anisotropy, indicating that epitaxial films of LaFeO 3 and potentially other perovskite antiferromagnets offer an attractive platform for antiferromagnetic spintronics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design, Development, and Test of the Advanced Apollo Orbital Assembly System

As spaceflight moves toward commercial solutions for Crew Vehicles and Space Stations, opportunity exists to lower costs with novel designs. Probe and cone docking systems provide a lightweight, low cost, and high-performance docking solution. This work revisits the Apollo probe and cone design and modifies it for the requirements of today’s computer-controlled spacecraft. This new system is called the Advanced Apollo Orbital Assembly (APOA) system, and is intended to support satellite, cargo, and space station assembly missions. A simulation of the APOA was programmed, components were sized, and a design was created by scaling the probe to the size of an EELV Secondary Payload Adapter (ESPA) tunnel. Prototype test hardware was 3D printed using Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) methods with Polylactic Acid (PLA) material. Testing of the APOA-ESPA was conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center’s (MSFC) Flat Floor, and a test-correlated simulation is used to evaluate a Monte-Carlo of Initial Contact Conditions (ICC’s) to establish baseline performance. The successful development, test, and correlation of the APOA-ESPA proves the design validity and increases Technology Readiness Level (TRL) from 2 to 4. This work opens the door to construction of an APOA-ESPA from flight like materials, and to develop a larger scale prototype APOA. When the full scale APOA is incorporated with the Common Berthing Mechanism (CBM), becomes the Hybrid Berthing System (HBS), which allows for berthing without a robotic arm.

Berthing↗
NASA NTRS2025

Lyotropic Liquid Crystalline Phase Behavior of Boron Nitride Nanotube Aqueous Dispersions

Boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs) are gaining significant interest due to their outstanding mechanical and thermal properties, as well as their potential to serve as a model nanorod system. Processing BNNT liquid crystalline (LC) dispersions enables precise control over BNNT orientation in macroscopic assemblies, while their low absorption in the visible spectrum facilitates studying LCs at exceptionally high concentrations. Here, we investigate the behavior of BNNTs in aqueous solutions stabilized by the surfactant sodium deoxycholate (SDC), examining the effect of BNNT purity and BNNT−SDC concentrations on lyotropic LC formation. We disperse up to 15wt% BNNT in SDC solutions and use polarized light microscopy to detail the transition from an isotropic state to a biphasic regime, where isotropic and nematic domains coexist due to phase separation, to a single fully nematic phase. Cryogenic electron microscopy provides direct evidence of BNNT alignment within nematic domains. Our results show that enhanced depletion-induced attractions, driven by increased surfactant concentration, lower the threshold concentration of BNNT required to form nematic domains. In contrast, low surfactant concentrations relative to BNNT result in insufficiently coated nanotube surfaces, leading to poor dispersions and BNNT aggregation. Additionally, we fabricate well-aligned BNNT films from aqueous LC dispersions. Our findings advance the understanding of BNNT LCs, offering insight into controlling their orientation and highlighting their potential for high-performance materials.

Joe Khoury↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal stability of 3D interface Cu/Nb nanolaminates

Nanocrystalline alloys are promising structural materials yet lack thermal stability in many cases. Recent work shows that interface structure has an outsize effect on the thermal behavior of nanostructured alloys. Here, this work focuses on the role of controlled heterophase interface structure in the thermal evolution of model Cu/Nb nanolaminates. We introduce 3D interfaces containing nanoscale heterogeneities in all spatial dimensions between Cu and Nb, forming 3D Cu/Nb. TEM, nanoindentation, and DSC are used in tandem to establish thermal stability and to identify shifts in microstructure as a function of static annealing temperature. 3D interfaces are shown to survive annealing to 300 °C for 1 hr., while 3D Cu/Nb microstructure evolves to form low-density and voided regions correlating to the onset of layer pinch-off between 500 and 600 °C annealing temperatures. A diffusivity- and vacancy energetics-based mechanism is developed to explain void formation driven by 3D interface degradation at elevated temperature.

3D interfaces↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward Trustworthy Autonomous Science: A Two-Year Community Roadmap

One year ago, the AISLE roadmap argued that autonomous laboratories operated as isolated islands and proposed a grassroots network organized around five critical dimensions. The field has since moved faster than that roadmap anticipated: multi-agent systems have produced experimentally validated hypotheses, self-driving laboratories have grown more interoperable and orchestrated, reasoning-trained and domain foundation models have raised the capability ceiling, and the Genesis Mission has placed autonomous experimentation at the center of U.S. federal science strategy, with industry emerging as a primary actor. Progress has met a sobering counter-current, including a corrected flagship discovery result, benchmarks showing that agents which rival experts on closed-ended questions still complete only a fraction of open-ended research, and fabricated citations surfacing at leading venues. We read this as the defining tension of the field: producing a candidate discovery is no longer the hard part, but verifying it is, and this asymmetry now limits autonomous science more than raw model capability. Accordingly, we update the roadmap around seven dimensions, revisiting the original five and elevating two former cross-cutting concerns, trust, verification, and reproducibility, and safety, security, and governance, to first-class status. We assess the original milestones (M1 through M14) as achieved, partially achieved, reframed, or open, add four new milestones (M15 through M18) for the elevated dimensions, and scope the path forward to a two-year horizon, with the first year concentrating on interfaces, protocol adoption, and the scaffolding of verification, and the second targeting federation, zero-trust coordination, and governance. Throughout, we position the grassroots network as the interoperability fabric that lets national programs, international initiatives, and commercial platforms connect rather than re-silo.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selecting an Encapsulant for an Aerospace Superconducting Machine

Achieving larger benefits from electrified propulsion in single aisle aircraft (the largest commercial aircraft market segment) necessitates that a significant fraction of their 20 MW or greater propulsion system be electrified. These aircraft would require up to 10-20 of today’s state-of-the art machines, which have been demonstrated up to 2.5 MW for aerospace use, and could benefit further from 5 MW+ designs. However, when conventionally cooled, high power density machines still produce a significant amount of waste heat, translating into heavy thermal management and detracting from system benefits. Highly efficient fully superconducting electric machines (or those with a cryogenically cooled, high purity copper or aluminum stator) are a possible solution but have multiple barriers to overcome. One such barrier is the durability of superconducting windings. Superconductors are typically brittle, and encapsulants used to hold windings in place are a significant source of stress due to mismatches in coefficient of thermally induced contraction between ambient and operational temperatures (20 to 77 K). Lack of compliance between the materials at operational temperatures also adds significant stress. These encapsulants also form a thermal barrier that can be detrimental to cooling the superconductors. This work describes an initial study of commercially available encapsulants as it relates to superconducting machine applications, along with initial modeling of thermal stress in superconducting windings for a superconducting or cryogenically cooled stator in a 5 MW electric machine.

encapsulant↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Return on Investment for Energy Technical Assistance Programs

The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of State and Community Energy Programs engaged the National Laboratory of the Rockies to assess the return on investment (ROI) of technical assistance (TA) programs that support state, local, and Tribal energy planning. Although TA delivers value through capacity building, stakeholder engagement, and knowledge transfer, these benefits are often intangible and challenging to monetize. This study reviews existing ROI frameworks and synthesizes the most relevant elements into a hybrid approach tailored to energy TA programs. The proposed framework integrates monetary and non-monetary outcomes through early logic model development, baseline data collection, and the use of proxies for intangible benefits. As a case study, this paper applies this approach to the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP), demonstrating how ROI can inform program design, data strategy, and performance assessment. Findings underscore that ROI should be applied selectively and planned from the outset to ensure data alignment and attribution accuracy. The framework offers TA practitioners a structured approach that can be leveraged for future programs to evaluate and communicate the multifaceted value of TA investments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generalizable Web User Interface for Scalable and Streamlined Deployment of Building Energy Management Systems in Small and Medium-Sized Commercial Buildings

Small and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) comprise 94% of US commercial buildings yet face significant barriers to implementing building energy management systems despite advances in smart device technology. Existing solutions present critical limitations: cloud-based API solutions simplify deployment but create vendor lock-in constraints; commercial integrated software solutions ensure compatibility via standardized protocols but require substantial cost and technical expertise; open-source IoT platforms offer cost-effective vendor independence but provide insufficient standardized protocol support for commercial building automation. This research presents a generalizable web user interface framework that bridges the gap between evolving smart device capabilities and lagging software infrastructure for SMCBs. The proposed system integrates VOLTTRON open-source middleware with an automated configuration converter that transforms unified specifications written in YAML, a human-readable data-serialization format, into system-specific files, streamlining manual setup processes. The vendor-agnostic architecture supports industry-standard protocols (BACnet and Modbus) and semantic building models while providing adaptive web interfaces that dynamically adjust to various building configurations. Demonstrations through simulation-based testing and a field deployment show automatic interface adaptation across heterogeneous HVAC systems and multizone monitoring. The automated configuration converter also substantially reduces labor-intensive setup.

Chung, Jihoon [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000184880815)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for soft unclustered energy patterns produced in association with a W or Z boson in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for a Higgs boson produced in association with a W or Z boson and decaying via a soft unclustered energy pattern (SUEP) is presented. The analysis is based on proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 collected between 2016 and 2018 at the LHC. Final states with a leptonic W or Z boson decay associated with a high multiplicity of low-momentum charged particles are explored for the first time. The results show no significant excess over the standard model background expectation. Limits are set on the production cross section of a Higgs boson that decays to a SUEP, for a range of parameters of the SUEP model. Material is provided to facilitate further interpretation of the results.

CMS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selecting an Encapsulant for an Aerospace Superconducting Machine

Achieving larger benefits from electrified propulsion in single aisle aircraft (the largest commercial aircraft market segment) necessitates that a significant fraction of their 20 MW or greater propulsion system be electrified. 5 to possibly 20 of the MW-scale electric machines investigated by NASA would be required to meet this need. Approximately 10-20 of NASA’s MW-scale electric machines would be required to reach the necessary power levels. Therefore, electric machines of 5 MW or greater are of interest. However, conventionally cooled high power density MW-scale electric machines still produce a significant amount of waste heat, which makes obtaining these power levels problematic. Highly efficient fully superconducting electric machines (or those with a cryogenically cooled, high purity copper or aluminum stator) are a possible solution but have multiple barriers to be overcome. One such barrier is the durability of superconducting windings. Superconductors are typically brittle, and encapsulants used to hold windings in place are a significant source of stress because of the mismatches in coefficient of thermal expansion at temperatures between room temperature and operational temperatures (20 to 77 K). These encapsulants also form a thermal barrier that can be detrimental to cooling the superconductors. This paper describes an initial study of commercially available encapsulants as it relates to superconducting machine applications along with initial modeling of thermal stress in superconducting windings for a superconducting or cryogenically cooled stator in a 5 MW electric machine.

encapsulant↗
NASA NTRS2026

xEMU Spacesuit Boot Lunar South Pole Thermal Vacuum Testing

The Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) spacesuit lunar boot was evaluated in the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) CITADEL thermal vacuum chamber at lunar South Pole conditions. The JPL CITADEL chamber provides a radiation environment and contact plate temperature of 48K, simulating the temperature of a lunar Permanently Shadowed Region (PSR) at the South Pole of the Moon. The main objectives of the test series are: to evaluate the risk lunar PSRs pose to advanced spacesuit boots, validate the xEMU lunar boot thermal model, and to develop a test methodology to evaluate lunar spacesuit boots. To simulate the thermal effects of a crewmember’s foot inside the boot, a thermal manikin foot was developed to inject heat into the spacesuit boot. Thermal data was collected through a variety of sensors including thermocouples, thermistors, heat flux sensors, and infrared cameras. A test matrix was developed to investigate the variables of foot contact force, simulated skin temperature, external contact plate temperature, and ventilation flowrate. The JPL CITADEL chamber includes a loadlock (airlock) that afforded the ability to simulate the transition of the boot from a thermally neutral IVA condition to a cold EVA condition within seconds. This paper will document the test design, test objectives, success criteria, test support equipment, spacesuit boot to chamber interfaces, and configuration of the test article. Additionally, this paper will document the high-level results of the testing. More detailed test results will be presented in a different paper.

Ben Swartout↗