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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?

Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable Bayesian optimization with randomized prior networks

Several fundamental problems in science and engineering consist of global optimization tasks involving unknown high-dimensional (black-box) functions that map a set of controllable variables to the outcomes of an expensive experiment. Bayesian Optimization (BO) techniques are known to be effective in tackling global optimization problems using a relatively small number objective function evaluations, but their performance suffers when dealing with high-dimensional outputs. To overcome the major challenge of dimensionality, here we propose a deep learning framework for BO and sequential decision making based on bootstrapped ensembles of neural architectures with randomized priors. Using appropriate architecture choices, we show that the proposed framework can approximate functional relationships between design variables and quantities of interest, even in cases where the latter take values in high-dimensional vector spaces or even infinite-dimensional function spaces. In the context of BO, we augmented the proposed probabilistic surrogates with re-parameterized Monte Carlo approximations of multiple-point (parallel) acquisition functions, as well as methodological extensions for accommodating black-box constraints and multi-fidelity information sources. We test the proposed framework against state-of-the-art methods for BO and demonstrate superior performance across several challenging tasks with high-dimensional outputs, including a constrained multi-fidelity optimization task involving shape optimization of rotor blades in turbo-machinery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

{sup 90}Y -PET imaging: Exploring limitations and accuracy under conditions of low counts and high random fraction

Purpose: {sup 90}Y -positron emission tomography (PET) imaging is becoming a recognized modality for postinfusion quantitative assessment following radioembolization therapy. However, the extremely low counts and high random fraction associated with {sup 90}Y -PET may significantly impair both qualitative and quantitative results. The aim of this work was to study image quality and noise level in relation to the quantification and bias performance of two types of Siemens PET scanners when imaging {sup 90}Y and to compare experimental results with clinical data from two types of commercially available {sup 90}Y microspheres. Methods: Data were acquired on both Siemens Biograph TruePoint [non-time-of-flight (TOF)] and Biograph microcomputed tomography (mCT) (TOF) PET/CT scanners. The study was conducted in three phases. The first aimed to assess quantification and bias for different reconstruction methods according to random fraction and number of true counts in the scan. The NEMA 1994 PET phantom was filled with water with one cylindrical insert left empty (air) and the other filled with a solution of {sup 90}Y . The phantom was scanned for 60 min in the PET/CT scanner every one or two days. The second phase used the NEMA 2001 PET phantom to derive noise and image quality metrics. The spheres and the background were filled with a {sup 90}Y solution in an 8:1 contrast ratio and four 30 min acquisitions were performed over a one week period. Finally, 32 patient data (8 treated with Therasphere{sup ®} and 24 with SIR-Spheres{sup ®}) were retrospectively reconstructed and activity in the whole field of view and the liver was compared to theoretical injected activity. Results: The contribution of both bremsstrahlung and LSO trues was found to be negligible, allowing data to be decay corrected to obtain correct quantification. In general, the recovered activity for all reconstruction methods was stable over the range studied, with a small bias appearing at extremely high random fraction and low counts for iterative algorithms. Point spread function (PSF) correction and TOF reconstruction in general reduce background variability and noise and increase recovered concentration. Results for patient data indicated a good correlation between the expected and PET reconstructed activities. A linear relationship between the expected and the measured activities in the organ of interest was observed for all reconstruction method used: a linearity coefficient of 0.89 ± 0.05 for the Biograph mCT and 0.81 ± 0.05 for the Biograph TruePoint. Conclusions: Due to the low counts and high random fraction, accurate image quantification of {sup 90}Y during selective internal radionuclide therapy is affected by random coincidence estimation, scatter correction, and any positivity constraint of the algorithm. Nevertheless, phantom and patient studies showed that the impact of number of true and random coincidences on quantitative results was found to be limited as long as ordinary Poisson ordered subsets expectation maximization reconstruction algorithms with random smoothing are used. Adding PSF correction and TOF information to the reconstruction greatly improves the image quality in terms of bias, variability, noise reduction, and detectability. On the patient studies, the total activity in the field of view is in general accurately measured by Biograph mCT and slightly overestimated by the Biograph TruePoint.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coexistence of Synchronization and Stochasticity in Thermally Coupled Mott Oscillators

Synchronization is conventionally regarded as a mechanism for suppressing variability and enforcing order in coupled systems, from pendula and lasers to neurons and electronic oscillators. Here, we show that synchronization can also embed stochasticity at finer scales. We observe this phenomenon in thermally coupled VO 2 neuristors, where robust in-phase synchronization at the microsecond scale coexists with spike onset fluctuations at the nanosecond scale, with no fixed leader. The coexistence of order and disorder originates from stochastic domain-level physics of the insulator–metal and metal–insulator transitions, where local variations in transition temperature drive cycle-to-cycle randomness in nucleation, percolation, and relaxation. A stochastic domain model reproduces this effect by generating synchronized spike trains with random lead–lag jitter, and experimental interspike interval statistics confirm the persistence of fine-scale variability despite macroscopic phase locking. These findings establish that synchronization and stochasticity can coexist within the same physical platform, revealing hidden disorder within collective order. Furthermore, this insight reframes synchronization as not purely deterministic, but as a universal context where microscopic variability can persist, with implications for electronics, cryptography, and the fundamental physics of order–disorder coexistence.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2015

Invited Review: A review of deterministic effects in cyclic variability of internal combustion engines

Here we review developments in the understanding of cycle to cycle variability in internal combustion engines, with a focus on spark-ignited and premixed combustion conditions. Much of the research on cyclic variability has focused on stochastic aspects, that is, features that can be modeled as inherently random with no short term predictability. In some cases, models of this type appear to work very well at describing experimental observations, but the lack of predictability limits control options. Also, even when the statistical properties of the stochastic variations are known, it can be very difficult to discern their underlying physical causes and thus mitigate them. Some recent studies have demonstrated that under some conditions, cyclic combustion variations can have a relatively high degree of low dimensional deterministic structure, which implies some degree of predictability and potential for real time control. These deterministic effects are typically more pronounced near critical stability limits (e.g. near tipping points associated with ignition or flame propagation) such during highly dilute fueling or near the onset of homogeneous charge compression ignition. We review recent progress in experimental and analytical characterization of cyclic variability where low dimensional, deterministic effects have been observed. We describe some theories about the sources of these dynamical features and discuss prospects for interactive control and improved engine designs. In conclusion, taken as a whole, the research summarized here implies that the deterministic component of cyclic variability will become a pivotal issue (and potential opportunity) as engine manufacturers strive to meet aggressive emissions and fuel economy regulations in the coming decades.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Revised Perturbation Statistics for the Global Scale Atmospheric Model

Magnitudes and scales of atmospheric perturbations about the monthly mean for the thermodynamic variables and wind components are presented by month at various latitudes. These perturbation statistics are a revision of the random perturbation data required for the global scale atmospheric model program and are from meteorological rocket network statistical summaries in the 22 to 65 km height range and NASA grenade and pitot tube data summaries in the region up to 90 km. The observed perturbations in the thermodynamic variables were adjusted to make them consistent with constraints required by the perfect gas law and the hydrostatic equation. Vertical scales were evaluated by Buell's depth of pressure system equation and from vertical structure function analysis. Tables of magnitudes and vertical scales are presented for each month at latitude 10, 30, 50, 70, and 90 degrees.

Justus, C. G.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those it is found that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely because of differences in instrumentation, calibration, and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat-dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory), and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but they poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration, or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Finally, data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning inversion from scattering for mechanically driven polymers

A machine learning inversion method is developed for analyzing scattering functions of mechanically driven polymers and extracting the corresponding feature parameters, which include energy parameters and conformation variables. The polymer is modeled as a chain of fixed-length bonds constrained by bending energy, and it is subject to external forces such as stretching and shear. We generate a data set consisting of random combinations of energy parameters, including bending modulus, stretching and shear force, along with Monte Carlo-calculated scattering functions and conformation variables such as end-to-end distance, radius of gyration and off-diagonal component of the gyration tensor. The effects of the energy parameters on the polymer are captured by the scattering function, and principal component analysis ensures the feasibility of the machine learning inversion. Finally, we train a Gaussian process regressor using part of the data set as a training set and validate the trained regressor for inversion using the rest of the data. The regressor successfully extracts the feature parameters.

Gaussian process regressors↗
DOE OSTI2016

CSI 2264: CHARACTERIZING YOUNG STARS IN NGC 2264 WITH STOCHASTICALLY VARYING LIGHT CURVES

We provide CoRoT and Spitzer light curves and other supporting data for 17 classical T Tauri stars in NGC 2264 whose CoRoT light curves exemplify the “stochastic” light curve class as defined in 2014 by Cody et al. The most probable physical mechanism to explain the optical variability within this light curve class is time-dependent mass accretion onto the stellar photosphere, producing transient hot spots. Where we have appropriate spectral data, we show that the veiling variability in these stars is consistent in both amplitude and timescale with the optical light curve morphology. The veiling variability is also well-correlated with the strength of the He i 6678 Å emission line, predicted by models to arise in accretion shocks on or near the stellar photosphere. Stars with accretion burst light curve morphology also have variable mass accretion. The stochastic and accretion burst light curves can both be explained by a simple model of randomly occurring flux bursts, with the stochastic light curve class having a higher frequency of lower amplitude events. Members of the stochastic light curve class have only moderate mass accretion rates. Their Hα profiles usually have blueshifted absorption features, probably originating in a disk wind. The lack of periodic signatures in the light curves suggests that little of the variability is due to long-lived hot spots rotating into or out of our line of sight; instead, the primary driver of the observed photometric variability is likely to be instabilities in the inner disk that lead to variable mass accretion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska

The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An infeasible-start framework for convex quadratic optimization, with application to constraint-reduced interior-point and other methods

A framework is proposed for solving general convex quadratic programs (CQPs) from an infeasible starting point by invoking an existing feasible-start algorithm tailored for inequality-constrained CQPs. The central tool is an exact penalty function scheme equipped with a penalty-parameter updating rule. The feasible-start algorithm merely has to satisfy certain general requirements, and so is the updating rule. Under mild assumptions, the framework is proved to converge on CQPs with both inequality and equality constraints and, at a negligible additional cost per iteration, produces an infeasibility certificate, together with a feasible point for an (approximately) ℓ 1 -least relaxed feasible problem, when the given problem does not have a feasible solution. The framework is applied to a feasible-start constraint-reduced interior-point algorithm previously proved to be highly performant on problems with many more inequality constraints than variables (“imbalanced”). Numerical comparison with popular codes (OSQP, qpOASES, MOSEK) is reported on both randomly generated problems and support-vector machine classifier training problems. The results show that the former typically outperforms the latter on imbalanced problems. Finally, application of the proposed infeasible-start framework to other feasible-start algorithms is briefly considered, and is tested on a simplex iteration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic boundary condition effects on supersonic leading edge blowing

The present manuscript studies the robustness of leading edge blowing for active control of the upstream bow shock and overall aerothermal characteristics of a supersonic airfoil subject to variability in the injection conditions. The injection boundary conditions were considered stochastic and their randomness was propagated to the flow topology and aerothermal quantities of interest by means of non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansions. The evaluations needed to build these expansions were carried out via steady two-dimensional Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes simulations. Two different injection port sizes were considered, with the smallest promoting a Coanda effect that gives rise to non-symmetric flow topologies. The uncertain boundary conditions lead to significant variations in the flow topology, particularly at the injection exit and the bow shock position, with variations of up to 75% of the nominal value. Here this study identifies the key operating conditions to ensure the optimal application of leading-edge injection for active control of supersonic airfoils.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Self-oscillation of standing spin wave in ring resonator with proportional-integral-derivative control

We report on numerical analysis on self-oscillation of standing spin wave excited in a nanostructured active ring resonator, consists of a ferromagnetic nanowire with perpendicular anisotropy. The confined resonant modes are along the nanowire length. A positive feedback with proportional-integral-derivative gain control was adopted in the active ring. Stable excitation of the 1st order standing spin wave has been demonstrated with micromagnetic simulations, taking into account the thermal effect with a random field model. The stationary standing spin wave with a pre-determined set variable of precession amplitude was attained within 20 ns by optimizing the proportional-integral-derivative gain control parameters. The result indicates that a monochromatic oscillation frequency f{sub osc} is extracted from the initial thermal fluctuation state and selectively amplified with the positive feedback loop. The obtained f{sub osc} value of 5.22 GHz practically agrees with the theoretical prediction from dispersion relation of the magneto static forward volume wave. It was also confirmed that the f{sub osc} change due to the temperature rise can be compensated with an external perpendicular bias field H{sub b}. The observed quick compensation time with an order of nano second suggests the fast operation speed in the practical device application.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-645: Dose Enhancement to Cell Nucleus Due to Hard Collisions of Protons with Electrons in Gold Nanospheres

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the theoretical dose enhancement to a cell nucleus due to increased fluence of secondary electrons when gold nanospheres are present in the cytoplasm during proton therapy. Methods: We modeled the irradiation of prostate cancer cells using protons of variable energies when 10,000 gold nanoparticles, each with radius of 10 nm, were randomly distributed in the cytoplasm. Using simple analytical equations, we calculated the increased mean dose to the cell nucleus due to secondary electrons produced by hard collisions of 0.1, 1, 10, and 100 MeV protons with orbital electrons in gold. We only counted electrons with kinetic energy higher than 1 keV. In addition to calculating the increase in the mean dose to the cell nucleus, we also calculated the increase in local dose in the “shadow,” i.e., the umbra, of individual gold nanospheres due to forward scattered electrons. Results: For proton energies of 0.1, 1, 10, and 100 MeV, we calculated increases to the mean nuclear dose of 0.15, 0.09, 0.05, and 0.04%, respectively. When we considered local dose increases in the shadows of individual gold spheres, we calculated local dose increases of 5.5, 3.2, 1.9, and 1.3%, respectively. Conclusion: We found negligible, less than 0.2%, increases in the mean dose to the cell nucleus due to electrons produced by hard collisions of protons with electrons in gold nanospheres. However, we observed increases up to 5.5% in the local dose in the shadow of gold nanospheres. Considering the shadow radius of 10 nm, these local dose enhancements may have implications for slightly increased probability of clustered DNA damage when gold nanoparticles are close to the nuclear membrane.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Fine-Resolution Shortwave Broadband Albedo of Croplands from Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data

Altered surface albedo due to land-cover conversions and management is a significant driver of global climate change. Albedo can be directly measured at ground stations, and remote sensing data can be used to scale-up albedo values to regional and global levels. Some previous studies have retrieved fine-resolution (10–30 m) instantaneous albedo and coarse-resolution (500–1000 m) daily mean albedo from remote sensing data, but they all required the input of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo information at 500-m resolution, and none have assembled both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data. Here, to address this issue, we compiled 387 instantaneous and 346 daily albedo records using field net radiometer measurements from the bioenergy croplands at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station in southwest Michigan. We then connected these albedo records with a suite of variables derived from harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data through two machine learning algorithms (random forest regression and extreme gradient boosting) to retrieve clear-sky instantaneous and daily shortwave broadband albedo. The performance statistics indicate reasonable accuracy of model results [root-mean-square error (RMSE)] around or below 0.03 except for snow-covered surfaces), suggesting that the retrieval of both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data is promising. To facilitate the use of fine-resolution albedo products at the global level, future efforts need to include more albedo records of diverse surface cover types, as well as to accurately model daily albedo for cloudy days to address the “clear-sky bias.”

Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2↗
DOE OSTI2015

Sampling Plan for Measuring Dark Current in Model 8825 Whole Body Dosimeters Used at Sandia National Laboratories

Dark current is the measured response of dosimeters when they have been exposed to no radiation. A sampling plan was developed for measuring the average dark current associated with processing the Thermo Model 8825 whole body dosimeters currently used at Sandia National Laboratories. The dosimeters each consist of an array of 4 thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) chips. The population of dosimeters was found to consist of 2 strata: older and newer dosimeters. Results from some recently processed dosimeters were used to estimate the variability in response of the TLD chips of the newer and older dosimeters in the active population. The older dosimeters have more variability than the newer dosimeters across all the 4 TLD chips. TLD chip 3, which measures shallow dose, has the most variability of all the TLD chips. The sampling plan developed is based on stratified random sampling.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗